Global Climate Coalition
1331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
Suite 1500 North Tower
Washington, DC 20004-1703
Tel: 202.637.3158
Fax: 202.638.1043
Alt. Fax: 202.638.1032

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ISSUES RELATED TO POTENTIAL HEALTH IMPACTS
RESULTING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
The Views Of The Global Climate Coalition
Attempting to link global climate change and adverse healih impacts requires a long
and very tenuous stretch. Attention to this labored hypothesis detractsfrom a much needed
focus on solid, identifiable ways to improve public health around ihe globe.
Concerns that climate change might be the cause of various health problems rests on a
number of unproved assumptions. Most of the existing literature concerning the potential health
impacts of climate change is based on computer-generated projections of possible increases in
global average temperatures into the next century. Climate related health impact projections
reported in 1995 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a panel of
international climate and economic experts assembled by the United Nations, are based on the
1992 IPCC climate projections.
However, since 1992, improvements in climate models have resulted in significant
reductions in the projected rate and magnitude of future climate change. For example, the IPCC
in 1995 has stated that their "best estimate" is that global mean surface air temperature will
increase about 2 degrees C by the year 2 100. This estimate is approximately
lower than
the "best estimate" in 1992. As a result, health impact projections should be reassessed using the
1995 climate projections. The Global Climate Coalition believes that such a reassessment will
produce significantly lower health impact projections than currently reported by the IPCC and in
general media accounts on the topic.
In addition, when reviewing health impact projections based on regional forecasts from
climate models, policy makers should consider that confidence in such projections can be no
greater than the confidence which exists in the regional climate forecasts. According to the
IPCC. confidence in regional climate forecasts "remains low". Therefore, confidence in health
impact projections based on these models must also be low.

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 As a result, any assessment of potential health impacts suggested in the literature needs to

be placed in context. Suggestions have been made that man-made greenhouse gases either have
or will lead to death and illnesses from increased heat waves, climate-related droughts, floods
and other disasters. Global warming alarmists also claim that infectious diseases would be
spread to new regions of the world, especially ''vector borne diseases" such as malaria and
dengue, which are transmitted by mosquitoes, rodents and other carriers.
Duane Gubler, chief of the vector-borne disease branch of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control, is skeptical that any connection exists between global warming and the spread of
disease. "Dengue is an example that all the people who talk about this use ...,I' he told the
recently. "But none of this has been associated with global warming
....I'

Dr. Gubler believes the primary culprits for the spread of disease are poverty, poor
sanitation, increased world population and a declining health infrastructure. Dr. John La
Montagnac, a director at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agrees with
this view and adds that mass human migration and the growing ineffectiveness of antibiotics are
also responsible for the spread of disease.
The most recent scientific assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
states that:
"Improved primary health care for vulnerable populations could play a
significant role in reducing a range of health impacts, including some
vector-borne and other communicable diseases, and the effects of extreme
events." (WGII FSM. section 18.5)
The IPCC lists a number of actions that would be far more effective and far more
responsive to human suffering than directing limited resources to cutting current greenhouse gas
emissions. Disease vector distribution can change for a number of environmental reasons,
including natural variability in weather patterns. There are many ways to respond to those
changes according to the IPCC.
"Improved sanitation and water treatment both reduce the spread of
waterborne diseases and may provide a measure of safeguard against
importing exotic enteric waterborne diseases such as cholera ...Finally,
disease surveillance could be strengthened and integrated with other
environmental monitoring to design early warning systems; develop early,
environmentally sound public health interventions; and develop
anticipator). societal policies to reduce the risk of outbreaks and the
subsequent spread of epidemics." (WGII FSM, section 12.5.6)

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 Since natural variations exist in the forces that control climate change, regional and
global average temperature changes are likely to occur regardless of attempts to reduce manmade emissions of greenhouse gases. As a result, the most prudent and effective course of action
to protect public health is to improve basic health services as outlined above.
The Global Climate Coalition believes that health professionals have a responsibility to
focus on known health threats such as: the inadequacy of public health surveillance to provide
early detection of diseases, the inadequacy of sanitation and water quality, inadequate nutrition
and personal behavior. Nations with higher standards of living are generally healthier.
Economic growth and development generate resources that enable societies to improve living
standards, which include better access to health care facilities and disease prevention.

In short, climate change is a marginalfactor in the broad range of public policy
options that should be examined in addressing health concerns around the globe. The issue is
one of priorities and proper use of scarce human and capital resources. Attention should be
directed at those who suffer from inadequate nutrition, a lack of fresh water, subpar health
care, deficient sanitation and similar problem. Improvements should also be made in disease
warning networks and national vaccination programs, and disease prevention should be
emphasized over treatment
The Global Climate Coalition is an organization of business trade associations and private companies established in
1989 to coordinate business participation in the scientific and policy debate on global climate change.
WGI, WGII. WGIIl = IPCC Working Groups One, Two and Three.
= Full Supporting Material. the peer reviewed portion of IPCC's work.

FSM

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