I ?1,-an.

FEDERAL VOTING 

RESEARCH INC.

PREFERENCES IN MANITOBA

DECEMBER 2018

 

METHODOLOGY
ABOUT THE
PROBE RESEARCH OMNIBUS
For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc.
has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of
random and representative samples of Manitoba
adults. These scientific surveys have provided
strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of
public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range
of social, cultural and public policy topics. The
Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the
province’s largest and most trusted general
population survey.

SURVEY INSTRUMENT
The survey instrument was designed by Probe
Research.

Between November 27 and December 6, 2018,
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative
sampling of 1,105 adults residing in Manitoba.
With a sample of 1,105, one can say with 95 percent
certainty that the results are within ± 2.9 percentage
points of what they would have been if the entire adult
population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin
of error is higher within each of the survey’s population
sub-groups.
Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and
wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an
equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research
survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby
a live-voice operator or interactive system randomly
recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to
complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire.
In addition, 251 randomly recruited Probe Research
panel members were included in this general population
adult sampling.
Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this
sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics
properly reflect known attributes of the province’s
population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS
statistical analysis software.

 FOR MORE
INFORMATION:

KEY FINDINGS
● With less than 12 months until the next federal election, the opposition Conservatives
may be poised to win back seats in Manitoba. More than four in ten decided and leaning
voters (42%) indicate they will cast ballots in the next federal election for the
Conservatives, with one-third (34%) preferring the governing Liberals. Sixteen per cent
of Manitobans would vote NDP, with small numbers indicating support for the Green
Party (5%) or the new People’s Party of Canada (2%).

● Support for Justin Trudeau's Liberals is off by eleven percentage points province-wide

CURTIS BROWN

since the last federal election and is down by a full 14 percentage points in ridings
located outside of Winnipeg.

PRINCIPAL

● The Liberals continue to lead the Conservative in Winnipeg (43% to 33% respectively),

211 – 10 Fort St.
Winnipeg, MB
R3C 1C4
(204) 926-6565
Cell: (204) 894-3298
Curtist@probe-research.com
FB: www.facebook.com/proberesearch
Twitter: @proberesearch
www.probe-research.com

although Liberal support is down significantly from a peak of 53 per cent in the 2015
federal election. The Liberals hold a statistically significant lead over the Conservatives
in the core, northwest and southwest areas of Winnipeg, with the two parties being
statistically tied in the southeast and northeast. Outside Winnipeg, Conservative support
has increased to nearly six in ten decided voters (58%, up from 48% in the 2015 federal
election), with only one in five rural and northern Manitobans now intending to vote for
the Liberals (19%, down from 33%).

● The Conservatives hold a 17-point advantage over the Liberals among male voters (48%
vs. 31% Liberal), with the two parties statistically tied among women (37% Liberal vs.
36% Conservative). Support for the Conservatives increases among older voters and
those with lower levels of household education.

 % Undecided: 14%

FEDERAL
PARTY
SUPPORT IN
MANITOBA
- DECIDED AND
LEANING VOTERS,
DECEMBER 2018 Q1. “The next federal election
will happen this coming
October 2019. Which party’s
candidate are you most likely
to support in the next federal
election?”

NDP,
16%
Liberal,
34%

Green,
5%

Other,
1%

Conservative,
42%

Base: Manitoba adults
(N=1,105)

People's
Party of
Canada,
2%

 % Undecided: 14%

FEDERAL
PARTY
SUPPORT IN
MANITOBA
- TRACKING -

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Green Party

53%

Q1. “The next federal election
will happen this coming
October 2019. Which party’s
candidate are you most likely
to support in the next federal
election?”

45%
42%
35%

34%

26%

17%

4%

14%

3%

16%

5%

Base: Manitoba adults
(N=1,105)

2011
Election

2015
Election

December
2018

 2015 Election

- DECIDED VOTERS Q1. “The next federal election
will happen this coming
October 2019. Which party’s
candidate are you most likely
to support in the next federal
election?”

53%

- WINNIPEG -

REGIONAL
FEDERAL
PARTY
SUPPORT

Dec. 2018

43%
33%

29%

14%

17%

3%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

2015 Election

4%

Greens

2%

PPC

Dec. 2018

Base: Manitoba adults
(N=1,105)

- NON-WINNIPEG -

58%
48%
33%
19%
13%

13%
4%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

5%

Greens

2%

PPC

 PARTY
SUPPORT
ACROSS
WINNIPEG
REGIONS
Q1. “The next federal election
will happen this coming
October 2019. Which party’s
candidate are you most likely
to support in the next federal
election?”

NORTHWEST (N=118)
• Liberal: 44%
• Conservative: 30%
• NDP: 22%
• Green: 2%
• PPC: 2%

NORTHEAST (N=124)
• Conservative: 40%
• Liberal: 37%
• NDP: 21%
• Green: 1%
• PPC: 0%
SOUTHWEST (N=192)
• Liberal: 45%
• Conservative: 35%
• NDP: 11%
• Green: 4%
• PPC: 2%

Base: Winnipeg adults
(N=683)

CORE (N=105)
• Liberal: 46%
• NDP: 24%
• Conservative: 18%
• Green: 8%
• PPC: 4%

SOUTHEAST (N=139)
• Liberal: 42%
• Conservative: 37%
• NDP: 14%
• Green: 7%
• PPC: 1%

 FEDERAL
PARTY
SUPPORT IN
MANITOBA
- ACROSS SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC
SUB-GROUPS -

Gender

Total

Age

Men

Women

18-34

35-54

55+

(1,105)

(535)

(570)

(364)

(414)

(326)

Conservative

42%

48%

36%

37%

43%

48%

Liberal

34%

31%

37%

36%

35%

30%

NDP

16%

12%

20%

17%

15%

16%

Green

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

PPC

2%

3%

1%

3%

2%

1%

(Base)

Education
Q1. “The next federal election
will happen this coming
October 2019. Which party’s
candidate are you most likely
to support in the next federal
election?”

Region

HS or Less

Some
Post-Sec.

Post-Sec.
Grad

Winnipeg

Rest of Manitoba

(200)

(434)

(449)

(683)

(422)

Conservative

50%

46%

35%

33%

58%

Liberal

22%

31%

42%

43%

19%

NDP

18%

16%

14%

17%

13%

Green

7%

3%

6%

4%

5%

PPC

2%

3%

1%

2%

2%

(Base)

Income

Valid responses only
DK/NS removed

Indigenous

<$50K

$50K-$99K

$100K+

Yes

No

(Base)

(224)

(353)

(347)

(102)

(947)

Conservative

32%

45%

40%

23%

44%

Liberal

33%

29%

41%

41%

34%

NDP

25%

17%

12%

29%

14%

Green

7%

5%

4%

5%

5%

PPC

1%

3%

1%

2%

2%