New York Voter Views of Transportation and Climate Issues Key Findings of a Survey of New York State Voters Conducted November 19-26, 2018 220-5197 • 801 interviews with likely November 2020 voters in New York State Research Approach • Conducted November 19-21 and 25-26, 2018, via landline and cell phones • Margin of sampling error of +/-3.5% at the 95% confidence interval • Due to rounding, some percentages do not add up to 100% • Selected comparisons to prior research on this topic in New York state • Bipartisan research team of FM3 Research (D) and American Viewpoint (R) 1 ur I Cont Intensity of concern about climate change and renewable energy has increased. (Extremely/Very Serious Problem) Difference Issues 2009 2015 2016 2018 Climate change Not using enough clean, renewable energy sources Too much dependence on fossil fuel Global warming 43% 50% 48% 57% +9% -- -- 41% 48% +7% -53% -57% 38% 53% 43% 58% +5% +5% Air pollution and smog The cost of electricity The cost of health care New York not doing enough to meet its potential for developing clean energy Crime and drugs The economy and unemployment *58% -83% *48% -75% 33% 38% 75% 37% 41% 74% +4% +3% -1% -- -- 39% 36% -3% -91% -68% 57% 69% 53% 40% -4% -29% 2016 to 2018 Q2. I’m going to read you a list of issues, and I’d like you to tell me how serious a problem you think each one is in your community. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a serious problem. Split Sample *Slight Difference in Wording 3 TheNature Conservancy Views of Climate Change New York voters are much more likely to say they are sure climate change is happening than voters nationwide. Do you think climate change is happening? Yes, extremely sure 52% Yes, very sure 15% Yes, somewhat sure Yes, but not at all sure No, extremely sure 11% 2% 4% No, very sure 3% No, somewhat sure 3% No, but not at all sure Don’t know/NA Q18. Total Yes 81% 2% Total No 12% Nationwide, 49% of American adults are extremely or very sure that climate change is happening, compared with 67% of New York state voters. 7% 5 New York voters are about as likely as Americans overall to believe that climate change is caused by human activities. Assuming that climate change is happening, do you think it is … Caused mostly by human activities 62% Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment None of the above, because climate change isn’t happening Don’t know/NA Q19. 20% Nationwide, 58% of American adults think that climate change is caused mostly by human activities. 6% 12% 6 Only 16% of New York state voters believe they will not be harmed by climate change. How much do you think climate change will harm you personally? A great deal 26% A moderate amount 33% Only a little 17% Not at all Don’t know/NA A Moderate Amount/ A Great Deal 59% 16% Nationwide, 42% of American adults see a great deal or moderate amount of harm from climate change. 8% Q20. 7 Testing Policies § Next, we tested two potential policies: a carbon pollution fee and a clean transportation fund. § All voters were asked about initial support for each proposal (though the order they heard them in was rotated). § Voters then heard messaging in support of and critical of one of the two policies, with half the sample assigned to each. 8 TheNature Conservancy Opinions of a Carbon Pollution Fee Voters first heard a brief description of a carbon pollution fee proposal. The FIRST/SECOND policy is called a carbon pollution fee. It would limit the amount of carbon pollution released into the air, and require major polluters like oil, natural gas, and energy companies in New York State to pay a fee for each ton of carbon pollution they emit from their activities here. The revenue would fund: • clean energy, like solar and wind; • cleaner transportation options like public transit, and cleaner fuels; • helping low-income communities and communities of color disproportionately impacted by pollution; • ensuring our forests are healthy; preventing and cleaning up pollution from our rivers and lakes, and increasing sustainable supplies of drinking water. Q6. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? 10 Three-quarters support the proposal, with more than half strongly in favor. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? Strongly support 56% Somewhat support 20% Somewhat oppose 6% Strongly oppose 15% Don't know/NA Total Support 76% Total Oppose 21% 3% Q6. 11 Both Republicans and conservatives support the proposal, as do nearly three-quarters of independent voters. Initial Support for Carbon Pollution Fee By Party & Ideology Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Democrats 36% 28% 20% 6% 8% 34% 16% 56% 30% 43% 24% 22% 17% 7% 80% Moderate Total Total Supp. Opp. 6% 87% 10% 32% 84% Liberal Conservative Strng. Opp. 17% 46% Very Liberal Very Conservative Smwt. Opp. 70% Independents Republicans DK/NA 11% 74% 23% 56% 41% 91% 7% 50% 47% 12% 92% 6% 5% 13% 80% 18% 33% 52% 44% Q6 Total. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? 12 Women are especially strong supporters, though majorities back it regardless of gender or age. Initial Support for Carbon Pollution Fee By Gender & Age Strng. Supp. Men Women 18-49 50-64 65+ 47% Smwt. Supp. DK/NA Smwt. Opp. 22% 7% 65% 53% 56% 59% 23% 19% 6% 22% 18% 21% Total Total Supp. Opp. Strng. Opp. 7% 69% 30% 7% 84% 11% 5% 8% 75% 22% 17% 74% 23% 5% 12% 79% 17% Q6 Total. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? 13 More than four in five New York City voters support it, as do two-thirds Upstate voters. Initial Support for Carbon Pollution Fee By Type of Area & Region Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. City Suburban Area Small Town Rural Area Upstate Smwt. Opp. 63% 52% 48% 23% 5% 23% 18% 22% 20% 17% 6% 12% 11% 66% 50% 12% 18% 18% 53% Strng. Opp. 18% 61% New York City New York City Suburbs DK/NA 5% 8% 10% Total Total Supp. Opp. 81% 15% 75% 22% 79% 18% 66% 34% 84% 12% 17% 75% 23% 18% 70% 26% Q6 Total. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? 14 Voters of color are a strong base of support for the carbon pollution fee proposal. Initial Support for Carbon Pollution Fee By Education & Ethnicity Strng. Supp. High School Educated Some College Education Four-year College Graduates Post-Graduate Educated Some College or Less Four-year College or More Hispanic Voters African-American Voters White Voters All Voters of Color 55% 55% 55% 64% 22% 16% 21% 7% 14% 5% 17% 20% 16% 5% 13% Total Total Supp. Opp. 78% 20% 76% 21% 74% 23% 80% 17% 55% 59% 22% 18% 77% 21% 77% 20% Smwt. Supp. DK/NA Smwt. Opp. 77% 67% 54% 69% Strng. Opp. 6% 15% 5% 15% 20% 19% 20% 7% 20% 97% 3% 6% 6% 86% 8% 74% 24% 17% 7% 89% 8% Q6 Total. Does this proposed carbon pollution fee sound like something you would support or oppose? 15 TheNature Conservancy Opinions of a Clean Transportation Fund Voters also heard a brief description of a clean transportation fund. The FIRST/SECOND policy is called a clean transportation fund. The state of New York would invest in transportation choices that reduce pollution, including expanding public transportation and creating infrastructure for electric vehicles and safe ways for people to walk and bike, all across New York. Q7. Does this proposed clean transportation fund sound like something you would support or oppose? 17 More than four in five support the proposal, nearly three in five strongly. Does this proposal sound like something you would support or oppose? Strongly support 57% Somewhat support 26% Somewhat oppose 5% Strongly oppose 8% Don't know/NA Total Support 83% Total Oppose 13% 4% Q7. 18 More than two-thirds of Republicans back the proposal, as do nearly nine in ten Democrats. Initial Support for Clean Transportation Fund By Party & Ideology Strng. Supp. Democrats Strng. Opp. 29% 5% 8% 78% 42% 30% 6% 38% 20% 27% 31% 5% 8% 68% 27% 92% 5% 20% 19% 59% Total Total Supp. Opp. 89% 8% 7% 86% 11% 14% 75% Moderate 5% 27% 38% Liberal Conservative Smwt. Opp. 23% 59% Very Liberal Very Conservative DK/NA 65% Independents Republicans Smwt. Supp. 72% 27% 95% 3% 6% 5% 86% 11% 19% Q7 Total. Does this proposal sound like something you would support or oppose? 68% 27% 19 Support for the clean transportation fund is substantial across gender and age groups. Initial Support for Clean Transportation Fund By Gender & Age Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. DK/NA Smwt. Opp. Men 56% Women 58% 28% 18-49 59% 24% 50-64 65+ 24% 61% 51% 23% 29% Strng. Opp. 5% 11% Total Total Supp. Opp. 80% 16% 5% 5% 5% 85% 10% 5% 5% 8% 83% 12% 7% 6% 85% 13% 5% 5% 10% 81% 15% Q7 Total. Does this proposal sound like something you would support or oppose? 20 Urban voters offer slightly more support, but it is at least three-quarters everywhere. Initial Support for Clean Transportation Fund By Type of Area & Region Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. DK/NA Smwt. Opp. Total Total Supp. Opp. Strng. Opp. City 59% 27% 6% 87% 10% Suburban Area 61% 24% 8% 85% 12% Small Town 58% 6% 9% 80% 15% 9% 12% 75% 21% Rural Area 47% 22% 28% New York City 60% 25% 5% 6% 85% 11% New York City Suburbs 62% 22% 9% 83% 12% 7% 9% 80% 16% Upstate 51% 29% Q7 Total. Does this proposal sound like something you would support or oppose? 21 Even a majority of those who think climate change isn’t happening support the fund. Initial Support for Clean Transportation Fund By Climate Change Happening, Cause of Climate Change & Impact of Climate Change Total Total Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. DK/NA Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. Supp. Opp. Climate Change 5% 87% 9% 63% 25% Happening Not Happening 27% 29% Human Activities Natural Changes Climate Change Isn't Happening Not at All Harmed A Little Harm Moderate/ Great Deal of Harm 5% 10% 67% 25% 43% 26% 21% 34% 32% 67% 7% 56% 39% 92% 6% 19% 69% 26% 24% 55% 35% 10% 26% 60% 36% 33% 5% 11% 11% 27% 53% 29% 23% Q7 Total. Does this proposal sound like something you would support or oppose? 5% 86% 9% 90% 7% 22 TheNature Conservancy Investment Priorities and Willingness to Pay Infrastructure repairs and natural area conservation are top priorities. I am going to read you a list of potential ways funding raised by this (SPLIT SAMPLE A: carbon pollution fee) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: clean transportation fund) could be spent in New York State. Please tell me how important each of these potential uses is to you. Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Impt. DK/NA Ext./Very Impt. Repairing and maintaining roads and 6% 90% 52% 38% bridges Repairing and upgrading roads and bridges so that they can better withstand the impacts of extreme weather Conserving natural areas like forests and wetlands that naturally remove carbon pollution from the air Protecting and restoring forests that provide natural filters to clean our air and water supplies 50% 35% 12% 85% 47% 35% 12% 82% 45% 36% 14% 81% Improving public health by reducing air pollution 46% 32% 14% 7% 77% Increasing the use of clean energy, like wind and solar power 45% 31% 16% 7% 76% Q9. 24 Majorities also value clean energy investments and pollution reduction. Ext. Impt. Reducing the pollution that causes climate change Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. 46% Not Impt. 29% DK/NA Ext./Very Impt. 13% 10% 75% 18% 7% 73% Creating jobs by building and installing solar panels, windmills, and clean energy technology Ensure that as New York transitions to using clean fuels for transportation and electricity, funds are made available to impacted communities for energy planning, job creation and reducing emissions Upgrading existing public transportation systems to use electricity rather than diesel or gas 35% 30% 25% 7% 65% 35% 30% 22% 10% 64% Installing one million additional solar panels statewide 36% 27% 25% 10% 63% Increasing the use of biofuels, which produce less pollution than gasoline 34% 29% 25% 8% 63% Saving residents money by reducing the gasoline they have to buy 31% 25% 8% 5% 63% 40% 34% 32% Q9. I am going to read you a list of potential ways funding raised by this (SPLIT SAMPLE A: carbon pollution fee) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: clean transportation fund) could be spent in New York State. Please tell me how important each of these potential uses is to you. Split Sample 25 Public funding of more EV stations is a relatively low priority. Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Reducing the amount of energy used by our homes and businesses 31% 31% Purchasing zero-emissions school buses 32% 28% Expanding the availability of public transportation outside major cities 29% 28% 32% 23% 29% 25% Providing a rebate to every New York taxpayer Righting the wrongs of past environmental injustices by investing in communities that have been negatively impacted through our reliance on fossil fuels Improving public health by making it safer, easier, and more convenient to get around by bike or walking Providing incentives to put half a million electric vehicles and electric buses on the road Providing more charging stations for electric vehicles 27% 24% 21% 25% 26% 20% Not Impt. 29% 28% 28% 23% 26% 33% 30% 37% Ext./Very Impt. 7% 62% DK/NA 10% 60% 11% 58% 16% 7% 55% 11% 8% 54% 12% 52% 17% 50% 17% 42% Q9. I am going to read you a list of potential ways funding raised by this (SPLIT SAMPLE A: carbon pollution fee) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: clean transportation fund) could be spent in New York State. Please tell me how important each of these potential uses is to you. Split Sample 26 There is a bit more appetite for upgrading public transportation in the context of a clean transportation fund. (Extremely/Very Important) Clean Carbon Source of Energy Pollution Transportation Difference Fee Fund Upgrading existing public transportation systems to use 61% 67% +6% electricity rather than diesel or gas Expanding the availability of public transportation outside major cities Repairing and maintaining roads and bridges Increasing the use of clean energy, like wind and solar power Improving public health by making it safer, easier, and more convenient to get around by bike or walking Ensure that as New York transitions to using clean fuels for transportation and electricity, funds are made available to impacted communities for energy planning, job creation and reducing emissions Reducing the amount of energy used by our homes and businesses Repairing and upgrading roads and bridges so that they can better withstand the impacts of extreme weather Improving public health by reducing air pollution Providing incentives to put half a million electric vehicles and electric buses on the road 55% 88% 74% 50% 60% 92% 78% 54% +5% +4% +4% +4% 63% 66% +3% 61% 64% +3% 84% 76% 50% 86% 78% 51% +2% +2% +1% Q9 Split A & Split B. I am going to read you a list of potential ways funding raised by this (SPLIT SAMPLE A: carbon pollution fee) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: clean transportation fund) could be spent in New York State. Please tell me how important each of these potential uses is to you. Split Sample 27 They are more likely to favor reducing carbon pollution in the context of a carbon fee. (Extremely/Very Important) Clean Carbon Source of Energy Pollution Transportation Difference Fee Fund Saving residents money by reducing the gasoline 63% 63% 0% they have to buy Providing a rebate to every New York taxpayer 55% 55% 0% Installing one million additional solar panels statewide -1% 63% 62% Creating jobs by building and installing solar panels, 74% 72% -2% windmills, and clean energy technology Righting the wrongs of past environmental injustices by investing in communities that have been negatively impacted through our reliance on fossil fuels Conserving natural areas like forests and wetlands that naturally remove carbon pollution from the air Protecting and restoring forests that provide natural filters to clean our air and water supplies Increasing the use of biofuels, which produce less pollution than gasoline Providing more charging stations for electric vehicles Reducing the pollution that causes climate change Purchasing zero-emissions school buses 56% 53% -3% 84% 80% -4% 83% 79% -4% 65% 44% 79% 65% 61% 39% 71% 56% -4% -5% -8% -9% Q9 Split A & Split B. I am going to read you a list of potential ways funding raised by this (SPLIT SAMPLE A: carbon pollution fee) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: clean transportation fund) could be spent in New York State. Please tell me how important each of these potential uses is to you. Split Sample 28 Willingness to Pay § Voters were asked their willingness to pay the cost of these policies personally. § Half were asked this before hearing about the various investments on the previous slides. § The other half were asked after they had heard more about how the funding would be used. 29 Hearing about priorities for funding increases majority willingness to pay. If some of the costs of such a policy were passed on to consumers, would you be willing to pay _________? Very Will. $5 per month $10 per month $20 per month $30 per month Before priorities Smwt. Will. 50% After priorities 9% 6% 5% 18% 50% 24% After priorities After priorities 12% 38% After priorities Before priorities Smwt. Unwill. 57% Before priorities Before priorities DK/NA 20% 25% Q8 & Q10. Split Sample 35% 5% 11% 19% 20% 22% 15% 7% 5% 35% 14% Total Total Very Unwill. Will. Unwill. 30% 62% 33% 25% 6% 11% 12% 5% 25% 40% 29% 44% 18% 31% 66% 28% 56% 39% 64% 29% 44% 51% 54% 40% 39% 57% 45% 49% 30 ur lus io Conclusions ü New York voters understand that climate change is occurring, and most feel they will be harmed by it personally. ü Climate change is among their top concerns, along with the cost of healthcare taxes, and deteriorating infrastructure. ü More than three-quarters support the broad outlines of a carbon pollution fee that would invest in clean energy and transportation and land and water conservation, including majorities in every major demographic and geographic subgroup. ü A clean transportation fund to expand transportation choices is also very broadly popular – though a funding mechanism was not specified. ü Majorities say they would be more likely to support a legislator who backed either proposal, with another one-third saying it makes no difference. ü Voters are willing to pay up to $10 additional per month to support either concept once they hear what it might fund. Their top-ranking projects include reducing air pollution, repairing infrastructure and conserving natural areas. 32 For more information, contact: Dave@FM3research.com Miranda@FM3research.com rgutermuth@amview.com