The World?s Leading Automakers? Chairman F. SCHWAB Porsche 1st Vice Chairman T. ELLIOTT Honda 2nd Vice Chairman M. BASSERMAN Mercedes?Benz Secretary R. RECCHIA Mitsubishi ?easurer Y. Toyota BMW Daewoo Fiat Honda Hyundai louzu Kia Land Rover Mazda Mercedes-Benz Mitsubishi Nissan Peugeot Porsche Renault Rolls-Royce Saab Subaru Suzuki Toyota Volkswagen Volvo President P. HUTCHINSON TECH-97-670 8/5/97 TO: AIAM Technical Committee AIAM Government Relations Committee FROM: Gregory J. Dana Vice President and Technical Director RE: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - Report on GCC STAC Conference Call and July 25, 1997 Meeting at the White House Enclosed is a memo summarizing the July 24, 1997 conference cali of the GCC Science and Technology Assessment Committee (STAC). Also enclosed is a summary of the July 25, 1997 White House meeting on the Science of Climate Change. i would urge all of you to read this summary, as it provides a good insight on the Administration?s views on this issue. ASSOCIATION OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS. INC. 1001 19TH ST. NORTH I Sum: 1200 I ARLINGTON, VA 22209 I TELEPHONE 703.525.7788 I 703.525.8817 AIAM-052769 AIAM-052770 ?9 23/ GCC Science and Technology Assessment Committee July 24, 1997 Members fren Lenny Bernstein reported that the ACSH is rewriting the draft of their report on the public health c?ccts effects of potential climate change. A new draft has been promised by July 26 and will be circulated to STAC members it?it is of su?icient quality to warrant committee review. Bob Gehri contacted Bob Davis, a University of Virginia Climatologist, about writing a paper for GCC use on climate change and extreme weather events. Davis has expressed interest and will provide a proposal to STAC in the next week or so. In view of budget limitations, there was no support for funding the Annapolis Center Workshop on Climate Change. Copies of the second draft of IPCC Technical Paper IV, Implications of Proposed C02 Emission Limitations, will be sent to those members of the committee who expressed willingness to provide review comments. Cements should be forwarded to Bob Gehn' no later than the close of business on Monday, August 1 1. Lenny Bernstein and Bob Gchri reported on the presentations on the science of climate change made by Mike McCracken and Rosina Bierbaurn at the CSIS roundtable on climate change on Tuesday, August 22. Copies of their overheads will be faxed to participants in the conference call. S. Fred Singer, Science Environmental Policy Project, has claimed that he has scienti?c evidence that during recorded history, the last 3,000 years, there have been more dramatic changes in climate than any projected by the IPCC. If Singer?s claim is valid, it would counter the WCC claim that climate will change faster in the next 100 years than anytime in the last l0,000 years. Marie 'l'akemoto will contact Singer to ?nd out the basis for his claim. will next meet by conference call at 1:00 on Tuesday, August l2. To participate, phone (800) 432-2 90, and use participant code 4S4'l73. Key items of business will be a report on the July 28 - Aug. 7 meetings, discussion of the report, evaluation of the proposal from Bob Davis, and feedback on Singer?s claim. The call will be limited to two hours. em, L. S. Bernstein AIAM-052771 Ul' 0 Science and Technology Assessment Committee July 25, 1997 Members of GCC-STAC White House Meeting on the WW On Thursday, July 24, I attended a 1 1/4 hour meeting at the White House attended by President Clinton, V. P. Gore, EPA Administrator Browner, and several cabinet secretaries, in which six scientists provided support for the Administration?s position on the science and impacts of climate change. The meeting was attended by about 30 Administration members, 75 industry and NGO representatives, and the White House Press Corps. The meeting was not a discussion, and its tone was best captured in V.P. Gore?s opening remarks, when he said are here to acknowledge the reality of climate change.? There was no discussion of scientific views which did nor support the Administration?s position or of the cost of responding to climate change. In his closing statement, the President said that this meeting was the beginning of a consistent attempt to involve the people of the issue because the sooner we begin, the less extreme will be the measures we have to take. The fermat of the meeting was as follows: the V.P., then the President, made opening statements, then each of the six scientist made a statement. One question was asked by either the President or the V.P. to each of the scientists, then the President made a closing statement. The audience was not given a chance to speak, but there was a reception afterwards, which I did not attend. Summaries of each of the statements follow, and the press noriee of the meeting, which includes short biographies of the six scientists, is attached. - As indicated above, the Vice President opened the meeting by saying that are here to acknowledge the reality of climate change. He said that the scientists would present information about the build-up of C02 in the atmosphere and what this meant in terms of droughts, ?oods, and changes in forests and to agriculture. He said that the Administration?s approach was that science must inform policy decisions and that the world?s scienti?c community was telling us that we are disrupting climate. Watch - The President said that he saw this issue in terms of our deepest obligation to future generations, that he and his Administration had spent the last 4 1/2 years trying to prepare the country for the new century and the new millennium, and that we can?t do this unless we deal with the challenge of climate change. He characterized climate change as no longer a theory, but ?for real,? and that there was ample evidence that human activities are already disrupting climate. He said that we eculd see warming equal to 2/3 of the change since the last lee Age in the next 100 years, and that this would lead to coastal flooding, infectious disease heat waves and ?oods. AIAM-052772 Jl?L?l UL I a He then turned to the political side of the issue, saying that this was the most dif?cult type of issue for a democracy to deal with. He said that ?we (the Administration) can see the train coming, but mest Americans can?t hear the whistle blowing.? He characrerized this meeting as the beginning of a process to educate the American public on the science of climate change. He ?nished by saying that he was convinced that the U.S. has to be committed to realistic, binding targets at Kyoto, and then gave a brief summary of the other points in the U.S. position in the AGBM negotiations (emissions trading, involvement of the developing nations, ere). Roland said that climate change was already underway, and rapidly went through the data on the changes in the atmosphere over the last 40 years, and the temperature and sea level rises over the last century. He said that 100 years ago most of the world?s energy came from human and animal power and biomass fuels. Now it comes from ?non-living fuels.? He pointed out that the world is moving rapidly to greater af?uence and greater dependence on fossil fuels. He cited the Montreal Protocol as a precedent on how the world could respond to a global environmental problem, and warned that there could be surprises, using the Antarctic ozone hole as an example. Vice President Gore asked Roland how the risk of climate change compared with the risk of stratospheric ozone depletion. Roland said that both were serious, then added that while CFCs were manufactured by only 20 ?science?based? companies, everyone uses fossil fuels. He said that all countries would have to be involved, but that the industrialized countries would have to take leadership. Wining: Molina gave a short description of the greenhouse effect, then showed the graph from the First Assessment Report comparing annospherie (It)2 levels and global temperatures for the last 160,000 years. He said that current levels of C02, about 360 ppm, were higher than anything experienced during that period. He then showed an extension of the chart showing CO, rising to 700 by 2100 in the ?business as usual? case. lanLLuhchencn - Lubchenco gave the most emotional talk, starting from a discussion of the value of the ?goods and services? (food, ?ood control, puri?cation of air and water, etc.) provided by the ecosystem, which she said was trillions of dollars per year. She said that we needed intact ecosystems, but that climate change will disrupt ecosystems and affect the provision of these goods and services. She then took a mythical t0ur of the U.S. after climate change, starting with a New England in which there were no sugar maples, Iouisiana with ?ooded salt marshes, a Midwest which had higher water demand and greater need for pesticides for agriculture, and Glacier National Park with no glaciers. She said that the rule was ?the slower the rate of change the less catastrophic the impact,? but that ecosystems were facing multiple stresses because of urbanization, species extinction, and climate change. She ended with a plea as a Mother to preserve the ecosystems for future generations. Schneider?s talk was_the least coherent. He talked about extreme weather 2 AIAM-052773 oust DI 8 events and said that his job was to provide the ?so what? of climate change. He started by quoting the study conducted several years ago by William Nordhaus, a Harvard economist. Nordhaus asked economists and scientist to estimate the damage which would be caused by climate change. Economists put the damage at 1% of GDP, while scientists put the damage at 10% ot? GDP. Schneider said that this was because scientists placed a higher value on the goods and services provided by the ecosystem. (It could just as well be because the scientists had a poor understand of how the economy works.) He then went on to talk about Hurricane Andrew causing $40 in damage and asked rhetoricaily whether we (humans) could have had some part in that? He said that he didn?t know, but pointed out that the biggest previous insured loss was $13. He then talked about the hydrological cycle, he, as it gets warmer there will be more evaporation and therefore more rain, and cited the NCDC data which shows an increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events in the U.S. He again said that he couldn?t say this was caused by human activity, but that it was consistent with both theory and models. Finally he quoted the Statement that when non-linear systems (such as climate are forced rapidly, they can provide large changes. V. P. Gore then went through a list of the ?oods which have occurred in the last few years and asked Schneider whether this anecdotal evidence meshed with his concerns. Schneider Said there were too many coincidences and that a pattern was emerging. He said that the ?canary in the cage is quivering.? Boh?hopc - Shope addressed health concerns. He said that a temperature rise of 6? F, the upper end of the estimate range for 2100, would cause excessive deaths due to heat. He cited the Chicago heat wave as evidence. He then went on to talk about vector borne diseases and said that these were caused by viruses, for which we had no cure, bacteria, and parasites, which were becoming drug-resistant. He focused on dengue fever, his specialty. and said that since the mosquitos which carry dengue were killed by a hard frost, Memphis, Tennessee is ?the current northern limit of dengue exposure in the U.S. If it gets warmer, that limit will move north. He then said that there have been small outbreaks of malaria in New Jersey, New York and 'l?exas, and that with warming such incident would be expecred to increase. V. P. Gore asked Shope il' Bosron gets Atlanta?s climate will it see a change in pests. Shope said yes, and Gore then said that in the South we had experienced the invasion of kudzu and it sounded to him like we were talking about ?microbiological kudzu.? Kendell talked about the effect of climate change on agriculture. He said that agriculture needs a stable climate and the high temperature of 1988 cause the U.S. and Canada to lose 1/3 of their grain production, the only time in 200 years that the U.S. failed to produce suf?cient grain to provide for current consumption. He said that Australia and Mexico had experienced similar events in the last few years. and that it would be ?scary? if this became a pattern. He then talked abour the limits on water availability and that an unstable climate was the last thing we needed in dealing with this problem. He said that the bottom tier of countries were most vulnerable, but because of environmental refugees and disruptions of trade patterns 3 AIAM-052774 IUOOZEJUHUCHF 3 no country would be sheltered from disruption- He characterized it as a national security problem which would be easiest to deal with if we stopped it at the outset. The President asked whether we weren?t going to have water quality and quantity problems no matter what. Kendall said that water problems were ?sort of under control? but that climate change would make them worse. My, - The President introduced Holdren and asked him to explain why people were under?rating the problem, and what was the responsible way for rich countries to do what they needed to do and also involve developing countries. Holdren gave six reason the climate change problem being under~ratedz 1) Human well-being is more dependent on climate than most people think. 2) Climate disruption is further along than most people think. 3) The climate implications of population growth and increased energy usage are larger than most people think. 4) Scienti?c uncertainty is not grounds for complacency - disruption could be larger rather than smaller than forecast. 5) Time lines between cause, effect and remedy are longer than most people think about. 6) The fates of industrialized and develtiping countries are more intertwined than most people think. Holdren said that the only way forward is global cooperation. V. P. Gore said that some people say why not wait a little longer until we understand the problem better before taking action. Holdren responded by comparing the climate change problem to a supertanker which is hard to steer or stop. He said that the supertanker is speeding up which will make it even harder to stop unless we act now. The President closed the meeting by saying that this was the beginning of a consistent, long term effort to involve the people of the country in the issue. He said the quicker we start, the less extreme the solutions will he. [can]: . L. S. Ber AIAM-052775 vu?l un- 1 0] a 7' 0133's.} luau Jon": ms .. rimwm'rsaousa O?ee ofthe Press Secretary FOR PLANNING P?iroszs ONLY cm: zoo/456.71 so Jun/23.1997 . PRESIDENT CLINTON TO DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGE Washington. D.C. - Presidem Clinton. Vloe President Gore and grandam: including Nobel lanreoles.? will hold round able discussion to discus climate change at the White House on Tlmrodey, July 24, 1997. At 32:30 prior to the round table discussion, Administration o?iciele will be available to b?efinterosted reporters on this aubjoa in the White Home brie?ng room. WHAT: President and Vice Prolido'nt to discuss climate change EenRoom?I?heWhiteHoule WHEN: 1:50 pan. Thu-low, July 24, I997 COVERAGE: OPEN PRESS NOTE: The soimtists listed below will be evoileble for hits-views following the event, at approximately 2:30 pm. Modie wishing to interview eov of these event puticipmu or needing White House: clearance to mend this event should contest the press o?eo I: 29214564150. Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland. University 0! California at Irvine Dr. Rowland won the Nobel Prize in Chemim in 1995 for his pioneoling march in uncooked: chemieivy ofihe destruction of the ozone layer. He eunetnly serves on the Foreign Secrotuy ofthe Netionol Academy of Sciences end is fame: President mo Chaim? ofthe Boos-d ofthe for the Advancement of Science. Rowland received his from the University ofCliioogo in 1952 and lizarren?y the Donald Bren Renard: Profeeoor obeemim'y end Eenh System Science DC I no Dr. Mario Malian. Mundane?: Institute of Tattooing. Dr. Molina was awarded the Nobel Prize along with Dr. Rowland for Mr match on the mix-min; ofthe ozone layer. Moline and his cannula demonstrated expullnanully how ozone-dam chlorine Emotional lo the manhole. He is mn?y the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Science at MIT. Dr. Malina nerves on the President's Committee on Science and Techie-atom and has also served a on odvieor to NASA. the Nation! Seieme Foundation and the Notional Institutes of Heath. AIAM-052776 u: - . . a! a meat-re: Nell ?1:14 'Dr. Jane Lubeheueo. Oregon Stete University. Dr. Lnboheneo it currently the Woyne end Gladys Volley Professor ?Marine Bloloy end Distinguished Professor of Zoology at Oregon State University. She he: received numerous ewerdl end is also an American Academy ofAm and Sciences Fellow end 3 Fellow to the Amerm Association for the Mumeemenr of Science. She received her {torn Hunt-d Urdvertity in 1975. Dr. Stephen Schneider. Stenford Uolvueity. As epoetdoctom researcher at NASH: Goddard Institute Space Studies and leter at the Notional Cm for Atmospheric Research, Dr. Schneider's work foeuted on the in?denee ofp?eenhouee pee: and suspended purities on the earth?s climate. In 1992. he we: awarded Fellowship for his ebility to integers and interpret the results of global climate team}! to the public. Dr. Schneider is currently 3 professor in the Department ofBiologioel Science and a Sdenco Fellow at the Institute for Internationel Studies et Stan?ord Urtivenity. Dr. Bob Shape. Unlvenlty o! Tern. Dr. Shape he: devoted hie career to the study ofvinttet carried by mosquitoes. ticks and other biting hoods. Since receiving his medical degree from Cornell University ln 1954, Dr. Shape he: spurt time in Wylie. Brazil and other tropical sites studying insect-home diseases. He was Pro?euor of Epidemiology at Yale University's School ?Main: Born l975-l995 and served a the Dlreotor ofthe Yale Arbovirus Research Unit for 24 years. Dr. Shops is presently Professor in the Departments of Pathology and Microbiology and Immunology It the University of'l?um Medial Branch. Dr. Henry Kendall, Ioltitute of Technology. Dr. Kmdell won Nobel Prize in 1990 for his work in pedals physics. muugltont hie weer. Dr. Kendall?s work be: factored on 0.5. energy Ind defense issues including the nuclear mm race. nuclear power end renewehle energy sources. Dr. Katdall In I founding member ofthe Union of Concerned Scientists end has been elected to the National Many of Science. He is currently the Stanton Profetsor of Physics at the Mosaohueettl Inuitute for Technology. - Dr. John Helena. Her-were Dr. Holdren is an expert on energy and environmentll eeienee. He is currently chilling the Presidential Committee of Adviser: on Science and Technology Study of the entire US. enety rowel) and deveIOpmertt portfolio in relation to the economic. andronmentel end ?entity etullenget ofthe out cattery. He is presently the Terese and John Heinz Protester ofEnvlronntentel Policy and Director of the Program on Science. Technology and Public Policy in the John P. Kennedy Sdtool of Government end Professor of?Environmenttl Science and Public Policy in the Department of Earth and Plenatuy Sciences or. Howard. 40-30-30. AIAM-052777