THE DES MOINES REGISTER/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2183 803 Iowa adults February 10-13, 2019 Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. I’m going to mention some elected officials and institutions. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way each is handling the job. (Rotate list.) Kim Reynolds as governor Kim Reynolds as lieutenant governor Joni Ernst as U.S. senator Not Sure Approve Disapprove Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Feb-12 59 32 9 46 47 51 46 44 39 38 33 30 24 24 15 17 20 19 30 32 46 Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 57 30 13 47 51 48 50 48 50 43 38 31 33 38 37 37 28 31 34 22 16 15 13 15 23 25 28 _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 Not Sure Approve Disapprove Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 58 33 9 50 49 51 53 54 56 57 64 59 60 62 62 60 65 56 54 57 57 66 75 36 40 40 35 37 30 28 22 25 27 22 23 28 21 30 28 32 30 20 12 14 11 9 12 9 14 15 14 16 13 16 15 12 14 14 18 11 13 14 13 The Iowa Supreme Court Feb-19 59 14 27 Donald Trump as president of the United States Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 46 50 4 39 44 35 43 42 56 51 60 52 49 5 5 5 5 9 Chuck Grassley as U.S. senator I'm going to mention the names of some people in the news. For each name I read, please tell me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know the person, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Net Favorable Kim Reynolds Kim Reynolds, the current Republican governor running for election Kim Reynolds, governor Kim Reynolds, Republican governor Kim Reynolds, Republican lieutenant governor Joni Ernst Joni Ernst, a state senator Chuck Grassley Charles Grassley, U.S. senator U.S. Senator Charles Grassley Senator Charles Grassley U.S. Senator Charles Grassley Net Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Feb-19 59 31 24 36 17 14 10 Sep-18 Jan-18 45 48 37 32 17 14 28 34 19 17 18 15 18 20 Dec-17 44 33 14 30 16 17 23 Feb-17 44 24 14 30 14 10 32 Feb-19 Feb-14 Jun-13 56 29 23 33 16 13 14 13 7 14 5 3 1 10 6 7 3 7 2 73 88 Feb-19 Feb-12 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-04 Feb-03 Jun-02 Jun-98 60 31 29 31 16 15 8 61 64 64 70 67 67 78 26 30 28 16 12 13 9 18 15 24 27 24 28 34 43 49 40 43 43 39 44 17 21 17 12 9 8 7 9 9 11 4 3 5 2 13 6 8 14 21 20 13 _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 Net Favorable Net Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure J.D. Scholten, former candidate for Congress in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District Feb-19 14 8 6 8 5 3 78 Theresa Greenfield, former candidate for Congress in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District Feb-19 8 4 3 6 3 1 88 53 23 16 37 15 8 24 Governor Tom Vilsack Feb-19 Jun-13 Jul-04 Feb-03 Jun-02 Dec-01 48 59 56 48 64 34 34 26 35 24 17 18 19 16 24 31 41 37 32 40 19 22 17 18 16 15 12 9 17 8 18 7 18 17 12 Tom Vilsack, state senator and candidate for governor Jun-98 30 14 10 20 9 5 56 Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa (Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) In the 2020 election, do you anticipate you will definitely vote for President Trump, consider voting for another candidate, or definitely vote for another candidate? Feb-19 Jan-18 Sample size Margin of error n=659 ±3.8pp n=656 ±3.8pp Definitely Trump 36 26 Consider voting for another candidate 15 20 Definitely vote for another candidate Will not vote (VOL) 45 48 - Not sure 4 5 (Based on all.) In the 2020 election, do you anticipate you will definitely vote for President Trump, consider voting for another candidate, or definitely vote for another candidate? Feb-19 Jan-18 Sample size Margin of error n=803 ±3.5pp n=801 ±3.5pp Definitely Trump 33 25 Consider voting for another candidate 16 22 Definitely vote for another candidate 44 45 Will not vote (VOL) 2 2 Not sure 4 7 Which of the following best describes your view of funding for a wall along the Mexican border: Feb-19 Jan-18 It should be funded no matter what else is happening with immigration policy It should be funded only with an agreement to give children of undocumented immigrants permanent residence in the U.S. or with a broader deal offering legal status to most undocumented immigrants 37 20 36 6 30 15 50 5 _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3 It should not be funded under any circumstances Not sure Here are some specific issues that may be debated in the Iowa Legislature this year. For each, please tell me if you favor or oppose the initiative. (Rotate list, but college must always follow professional sports, and the marijuana questions must always be final two.) Favor Oppose Not Sure Amend the Iowa Constitution to add the right to keep and bear arms, which would result in fewer restrictions on guns Feb-19 56 39 5 Expand legal gambling in Iowa to include betting on professional sports events Feb-19 40 52 9 Expand legal gambling in Iowa to include betting on college sports events Feb-19 25 68 7 Amend the Iowa Constitution to clarify that convicted felons are automatically eligible again to vote once they have completed their sentences Feb-19 64 29 7 Feb-19 Jan-18 Feb-17 Feb-16 Feb-15 Feb-14 Feb-13 48 48 4 39 39 34 30 28 29 58 57 63 67 69 68 3 4 3 3 3 3 [Not directly comparable:] What about legalizing marijuana for recreational use, with restrictions similar to the use of alcohol, such as prohibiting driving while under the influence and setting a minimum? Do you favor or oppose legalizing marijuana for recreational use? Feb-10 28 70 2 Expand access to the medical marijuana program by covering more diseases and conditions and adding more dispensaries around the state beyond the current five locations Feb-19 78 18 4 Legalize the use of marijuana for recreational purposes in Iowa The Iowa Legislature is considering creating a universal screening program to identify children with mental health issues for early treatment. Parents could opt out. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 77 15 8 Favor Oppose Not sure The Iowa Legislature is also considering a change in the way judges are selected in Iowa. Currently, the governor appoints judges from nominees put forward by a judicial nominating commission. The governor chooses half the members of the commission, and Iowa lawyers choose half. It’s been proposed that legislative leaders of both parties would make half of the choices, replacing the role of attorneys. Do you favor the proposed change in how the nominating commission is constituted, or do you favor keeping it the way it is now? 33 54 13 Favor changing the way the nominating commission is constituted Favor keeping it the way it is now Not sure _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 4 I'm going to mention some general areas of Iowa life where state government could take future action. For each, please tell me if you believe the situation to be a crisis, a big problem, a little problem, or if you think things are working just fine. (Rotate list.). Mental health services Funding for the Iowa court system Crisis Big Problem Little Problem Working Just Fine Not Sure Feb-19 Jan-18 27 38 20 9 6 35 38 13 9 5 Feb-19 Jan-18 3 13 27 31 26 8 19 28 27 19 I’m going to mention types of taxes paid in Iowa. Based on what you happen to know about rates, for each please tell me if you think the amount paid in Iowa is too high, about right, or too low. (Rotate list.) Too High Property taxes Corporate taxes State income taxes Sales tax About Right 55 19 37 21 Too Low Not Sure 1 29 5 4 7 25 8 5 37 27 51 71 Do you favor or oppose raising the state sales tax by one cent to pay for a combination of [water quality projects] and [mental health services]? (Alternate options.) Feb-19 Jan-18 Favor Oppose Not sure 65 32 4 67 29 4 The state Legislature can address large and small issues during the course of the session. For the following issues, please tell me if you think the issue does or does not deserve the legislature’s limited time. Just answer yes or no. (Read list. Rotate.) Guns Gun control (Compare with caution.) Deserves Time Does not Deserve Time Not Sure 60 37 3 40 58 2 Feb-19 Feb-10 If you could, would you prefer to live in Iowa or in some other state? Feb-19 Jul-17 Apr-85 Mar-82 Jul-78 Iowa Some other state Not sure 77 19 4 72 76 69 65 24 21 29 30 4 3 2 5 _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 5 In the last few years, have you participated in informal sports bets—like a March Madness pool or a friendly financial wager over who wins the Super Bowl or other football games? (If yes, ask:) Is this something you would say you do regularly, occasionally, or rarely? 4 6 8 80 2 Yes, regularly Yes, occasionally Yes, rarely No Not sure Are you more the type of person to [COMPLAIN ABOUT] winter in Iowa or more the type to [CELEBRATE] winter in Iowa? (Alternate options.) 52 37 12 Complain Celebrate Not sure Have you ever in the past participated in the Iowa caucuses—either on the [REPUBLICAN] side or the [DEMOCRATIC] side, or both? (Alternate parties.) 21 20 8 49 2 Yes, Republican Yes, Democratic Yes, both No Not sure How likely is it you will vote in the November 2020 general election for president, U.S. Senate and other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote? Definitely vote Feb-19 Jan-18 Probably vote Might or might not vote Probably not vote Refused/ Not sure 81 8 3 5 3 81 10 3 3 3 How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? (Interviewer note, if asked: If President Trump is challenged for the nomination, there will be a straw poll at the Republican caucus.) 9 12 8 11 4 47 3 6 Definitely attend Democratic caucus Probably attend Democratic caucus Definitely attend Republican caucus Probably attend Republican caucus Might or might not attend Probably not attend a caucus Don’t know which caucus will attend Not sure Skip next question Ask next question _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 6 If there were a way to participate on caucus night without being physically present, for example, through a teleconference or a mail-in absentee ballot, do you think you would definitely participate, probably participate, or probably not participate? (If definitely or probably participate, ask:) Will you participate in the Democratic or the Republican caucus? (Asked only of those who are less than probably likely to attend either party’s caucus; n=401. MoE: ±4.9 percentage points.) Based on those unlikely to attend; n=401 Based on all; n=803 4 13 3 14 5 50 5 7 2 6 1 7 2 25 3 3 Definitely participate in Democratic caucus Probably participate in Democratic caucus Definitely participate in Republican caucus Probably participate in Republican caucus Might or might not participate Probably not participate in a caucus Don’t know which caucus will participate in Not sure ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted February 10-13 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 803 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the sample of 803 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 7