DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY 400 Registered Republicans Margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points Study #2185 March 3-6, 2019 418 registered Republican contacts weighted by age and sex 401 Democratic likely caucusgoers Margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points 1,618 active registered voter contacts weighted by age and sex Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? [Note to interviewer: If respondent asks, virtually or in person? The words I have are “attend.” In other words, offer no further clarification.] Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Definitely attend Democratic caucus Mar-19 Dec-18 Probably attend Democratic caucus Definitely attend Republican caucus Probably attend Republican caucus Probably not attend a caucus Don’t know which caucus will attend Not sure 50 50 - - - - - 57 43 - - - - - How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? [Note to interviewer: If respondent asks, virtually or in person? The words I have are “attend.” In other words, offer no further clarification.] Among Registered Republicans Definitely attend Democratic caucus Mar-19 Dec-18 Probably attend Democratic caucus Definitely attend Republican caucus Probably attend Republican caucus Probably not attend a caucus Don’t know which caucus will attend Not sure - - 19 27 47 3 3 - - 23 24 47 3 3 Given what you happen to know about the Democratic Party’s plans for virtual caucuses, do you approve or disapprove of those plans, or don’t you know enough to say? Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Mostly approve Mar-19 23 Mostly disapprove 4 Not sure 73 Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both? Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Mar-19 Dec-18 Attended Republican caucus in the past Attended Democratic caucus in the past Attended both First caucus Not sure 6 62 7 25 1 11 60 7 21 - Now, I’m going to mention some prominent people, including potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Net Fav Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Net Unf Very Mostly Mostly Very Not Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Michael Bennet, U.S. senator from Colorado Mar-19 3 15 5 2 75 Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States Mar-19 Dec-18 45 47 37 8 6 4 35 11 4 4 Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City Mar-19 Dec-18 3 24 27 11 34 8 32 20 11 29 Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey Mar-19 Dec-18 13 39 9 5 33 18 31 6 6 39 Mar-19 Dec-18 6 18 6 2 68 6 17 5 3 69 Mar-19 Dec-18 2 8 8 3 79 2 9 5 3 82 Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana Mar-19 5 12 7 4 73 Julián Castro, former U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mar-19 Dec-18 7 27 5 3 58 6 21 7 3 63 Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York City Mar-19 2 19 21 8 51 John Delaney, former U.S. representative from Maryland Mar-19 5 22 8 5 61 John Delaney, U.S. congressman from Maryland Dec-18 6 19 7 4 64 Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. representative from Hawaii Mar-19 5 17 9 6 64 Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York Mar-19 Dec-18 5 29 10 6 49 7 28 5 4 55 Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California Mar-19 Dec-18 23 35 4 5 33 19 29 6 4 41 John Hickenlooper, former governor of Colorado Mar-19 5 20 6 5 65 John Hickenlooper, governor of Colorado Dec-18 6 18 6 3 67 Jay Inslee, governor of the state of Washington Mar-19 Dec-18 3 15 6 2 75 3 8 5 2 82 Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota Mar-19 Dec-18 13 30 9 6 41 16 22 5 3 54 Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio Steve Bullock, governor of Montana Net Fav Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Net Unf Very Mostly Mostly Very Not Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas Mar-19 19 33 8 4 36 Beto O’Rourke, U.S. congressman from Texas Dec-18 28 25 7 4 36 Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont Mar-19 Dec-18 37 34 16 9 4 43 31 12 10 4 Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks Mar-19 1 6 27 24 42 Eric Swalwell, U.S. representative from California Mar-19 4 16 7 2 71 Eric Swalwell, U.S. congressman from California Dec-18 5 14 4 5 70 Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts Mar-19 Dec-18 25 38 12 8 17 30 35 13 7 16 Marianne Williamson, author and activist Mar-19 1 7 7 4 80 Andrew Yang, businessman Mar-19 Dec-18 2 5 7 5 81 1 4 6 6 83 Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If “None of these” or “Not sure” in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Michael Bennet Joe Biden Cory Booker Steve Bullock Pete Buttigieg Julián Castro Bill de Blasio John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Marianne Williamson Andrew Yang None of these (VOL) Not sure No first choice First Choice Second Choice 1 27 3 1 1 1 1 7 1 3 5 25 9 3 10 n/a 1 19 3 1 2 2 1 11 1 3 6 13 12 2 6 13 Total selecting as either first or second choice 2 46 6 1 2 3 1 2 1 18 1 1 6 11 38 21 - ^Eric Holder (one night, 0 respondents 1st/2nd choice) and Michael Bloomberg (2 nights, 0 respondents 1st choice, 5 respondents 2nd choice) announced they would not be running for president while this poll was in the field. Brown announced he would not run after the poll was out of the field, so first-choice votes for him have been reallocated to the respondents’ second choices. Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If “None of these” or “Not sure” in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Michael Bennet Joe Biden Cory Booker Steve Bullock Pete Buttigieg Julián Castro Bill de Blasio John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Marianne Williamson Andrew Yang None of these (VOL) Not sure No first choice Mar-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Dec-18 First Choice Second Choice Total selecting as either first or second choice 1 27 1 19 2 46 32 18 50 3 3 6 4 7 11 1 - 1 - - - 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 2 1 2 1 - 1 1 7 11 18 5 6 11 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 - 1 1 3 3 6 3 2 5 5 6 11 11 12 23 25 13 38 19 14 33 - - - - 1 1 9 12 21 8 10 18 - - - - 1 1 3 2 4 3 10 6 6 6 n/a 13 n/a 10 ^Eric Holder (one night, 0 respondents 1st/2nd choice) and Michael Bloomberg (2 nights, 0 respondents 1st choice, 5 respondents 2nd choice) announced they would not be running for president while this poll was in the field. Brown announced he would not run after the poll was out of the field, so first-choice votes for him have been reallocated to the respondents’ second choices. I’m going to mention some of these candidates again. For each, I’d like you tell me if you think the person’s political views are too liberal, about right, or too conservative (Rotate list.) Too Liberal Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Cory Booker Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. When it 6 6 9 12 5 7 44 23 About Right Too Conservative 70 21 42 49 35 42 48 54 14 20 10 5 8 8 2 4 Not Sure 10 53 39 34 52 43 7 19 comes to Joe Biden, which of the following do you agree with more? (Rotate items.) 31 64 5 The time for him as a candidate has passed, and he should stay out of the race He has more experience than any other candidate, and he should get in the race Not sure Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. When it comes to Bernie Sanders, which of the following do you agree with more? (Rotate items.) 43 54 3 The time for him as a candidate has passed, and he should not be in the race His candidacy for president pushed the party in a good direction, and he should be in the race again Not sure Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Which is 83 13 4 more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.) A candidate who will focus on harnessing Democrats’ positive energy to unite the country A candidate who will focus on harnessing Democrats’ anger to defeat President Trump Not sure For each of the following issue positions that some candidates have taken, please tell me if you prefer a candidate who supports it in full, supports steps toward it, or does not support that position. (Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Medicare-for-all, shifting to a government-run health system Free tuition to a public four-year college New taxes that target people with over $50 million in assets A proposal called the Green New Deal, which couples government programs to address climate change with support for jobs in the clean energy sector to help address poverty Legalizing recreational marijuana nationwide Support in Full Support in Steps Does Not Support Not Sure 49 36 67 35 40 22 11 21 8 5 3 3 65 44 26 33 4 16 5 6 We’re interested in what you want candidates to spend time talking about. For each of the following issues, please tell me if this is something you want candidates to spend a lot of time talking about, a little time, or not much time talking about. (Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. International trade Immigration Income inequality Job creation Race relations Criminal justice reform Guns Impeachment Student debt Health care Climate change A lot A little Not much 37 57 67 55 57 54 52 22 55 81 80 52 35 25 40 35 41 32 33 39 16 16 9 7 6 4 6 4 14 42 5 2 3 Not sure 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted March 3-6, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses and 400 registered Republicans. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,618 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and sex to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. For the registered Republican sample, responses for the 418 registered Republican contacts were adjusted by age and sex to reflect their proportions among active registered Republicans in the voter registration list. Questions based on the sample of 401 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, as does the sample of 400 registered Republicans. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.