ADMINISTRATION FOR 82 TO: OS UAC/Refugee Big Group FROM: Jonathan White, Deputy Director for Children?s Programs, ORR SUBJECT: Unaccompanied Alien Children Program Update DATE: July 4, 2017 BUT UNCLASSIFIED Current refeirals and discharges: During the past seven-day period (as of data reported on the 3 July dashboard), average referrals rose to 71 day (+16 from previous week) and average discharges fell to 42 UAC/day (-1 from previous week). The 30?day discharge rate has ?uctuated between 1.9 and 2.0 this week. Current Capacity: ORR continues to monitor shelter occupancy on a daily basis, currently at 43% from previous week) and to adjust in anticipation of expected need. On June 11, the second phase of 20% capacity reductions for residential Shelter and Transitional Foster Care (TFC) beds was implemented. On July 1, OR reduced Shelter and TFC beds by an addition 824 beds. ORR does not anticipate any additional bed capacity reductions in FY17. ORR has an increased focus on monitoring specialty bed capacity (Secure, Staff Secure, Residential Therapeutic Center, and Long-Term Foster Care) in addition to standard Shelter and TFC. Congress: The ORR Director participated in a hearing on June 22, 2017, before the Senate Judiciary Committee. The ORR Director, Deputy Director for Children?s Programs, and health division director met with Rep. Michael C. Burgess (R-TX) on June 23. OR is working with Of?ce of Legislative Affairs and Budget (OLAB) and the Of?ce of the Assistant Secretary for Legislation (ASL) to respond to an oversight letter from Chairman Ron Johnson of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Communications: An online fact sheet on the Community Safety Initiative is in development. ORR and ACF Coms are collaborating with DHS public affairs on messaging for UAC Sponsor Initiative. Mission Risks and Challenges: ORR is working to develop and implement strategies to mitigate each of the risks and challenges identi?ed for this mission. 1. ORR may experience shortfall in Secure Shelter capacity as a result of increasing domestic apprehensions of gang members. ORR has 58 Secure Shelter beds nationwide in two facilities. Recent rapid increases in the number of referrals requiring Secure-level care, as a result of domestic apprehensions following law enforcement actions including large-scale anti-gang operations, suggest that this level may be inadequate for emerging requirements. On June 30?s Specialty Bed Capacity Report, male Secure beds were at 94% capacity The next Specialty Bed Capacity Report will be released on Friday, 7 July (due to the July 4 holiday, there will be no Specialty Bed Capacity Report on Tuesday of this week). ORR is working on plans to procure additional Secure beds by a contract mechanism. Future UAC referral levels are volatile and unpredictable. In partnership with Department of Homeland Security and other partners in the UAC Uni?ed Coordination Group (U CG), ORR works to obtain best available intelligence on potential future migration patterns affecting referral numbers. DHS projections anticipate average daily UAC migration from 17-67 through the end of Quarter 3. DHS Intelligence and Analysis advises that the Quarter 4 projections will be available in mid-July. . DHS immigration enforcement actions may adversely a?ect discharge rate. DHS has launched a national Sponsor Initiative,? which involves contacting sponsors of UAC who are without legal status, interviewing them, and in some cases taking them into custody, issuing criminal charges against them, or issuing Notices to Appear. Effects of this initiative upon readiness of individuals to step forward as Sponsors are expected to result in signi?cant increases in length of stay and decline in discharge rate. This step would represent one-half of the DHS policy changes necessary to ful?ll the Deterrence? scenario model (since family unit separations are not yet being implemented). ORR is currently reviewing that model to determine if it should be re?ned to current policy realities. . Risks of too many vs. too few open beds must be balanced. OR is implementing total cuts of approximately 35% of Shelter and TFC beds in June, to mitigate against budgetary risks of too many open beds. ORR is currently modeling four scenarios using the Bed Capacity Model tool: Current Referrals and Discharges, DHS Deterrence, and DHS Projections. The DHS Deterrence and Steady Growth scenarios require additional beds in FY 2017. DHS Projections and Current Referrals/Discharges scenarios, however, do not require additional beds in FY17 or early FY18. As a result, at this time, ORR does not anticipate either adding or reducing standard shelter and TFC beds in FY17. Division of Planning and Logistics (DPL) continues contingency planning for further increases in daily referrals. ORR briefed the UCG Deputies? Group on June 22 regarding its readiness for in?ux events, as required under the UCG Plan. Criminal gang activity by some former UA Cs creates operational and optical risk for the program. ORR is engaged in a Community Safety Initiative designed to assure that program operations do not create risks for American communities. ORR published a new Secure and Staff Secure Policy on June 12. ORR is working with grantees to pilot a Department of Justice-recommended gang prevention program in shelter programs. ORR has been engaging with DHS to make improvements to information sharing related to criminal intelligence and potential community risk issues, both in the process of referrals, and in sponsor vetting and pre?release consultation between OR and DHS. . Natural disasters and all-hazard events, especially hurricanes, pose threats to ORR UAC program operations. The ORR program shelter network includes a number of programs in locations at risk for natural disasters, and the concentration of many programs in a hurricane threat area creates concurrent-impact risks. The scenario of a hurricane impact to the Rio Grande Valley region in Texas, in particular, poses signi?cant threats of program?wide disruption. ORR requires all shelter programs to have emergency contingency and evacuation 2 plans at the facility level, but a regional-level event creates signi?cant risk of program-wide disruption. ORR DPL is analyzing this threat and developing contingency plans for natural disaster scenarios. Weekly Operational Bed Cascades 7/3/2017 Activation Plan to maintain 85 percent capacity SITE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 NAME Current Referrals 8? DHS Deterrence DHS Projections Steady Growth Discharges week) TBD +250 Not brought online 7/13/2017 Not brought online 9/23/2017 Not brought online_ 7/20/2017 Not brought online? 10/5/2017 nan +250 Not brought online 7/21/2017 Not brought online 10/13/2017 TBD 4250 Not brought online 7/23/2017 Not brought online 10/21/2017 TBD +250 Not brought online 7/25/2017 Not brought online 10/28/2017 +250 Not brought online 7/25/2017 Not brought online 11/5/2017 TBD +250 Not brought online 7/28/2017 Not brought online 11/12/201?7 Not brought online 7/30/2017 Not brought online 11/19/2017 - I TBD +250 Not brought online 8/1/2017 - I Not broughtonline I - 11/27/2017 TBD +250 Not brought online 873/2017 _Not brought online TBD +250 Not brought online 3/5/2017 Not brought online 12/11/2017 TBD 1:250 Not brought online 8/7/2017 Not brought online 12/18/2017 TBD +250 Not brought online - 8/9/2017 Not broughtonline 12/25/2017 TBD +250 Not brought online Not brought online 1/1/2013 TBD +250 Not brought online Not brought online 1/8/2018 TBD #250 Not brought online 8/15/20? lxlot brought online.) 1/15/2018 TBD +250 Not brought online 8/17/2017 Not brought online 1/23/2018 TBD -i-250 Not brought online 8/19/2017 Not brought online 1/30/2018 TBD +250 Not brought online 8/21/2017 Not brought online 2/5/2018. TBD +250 N?ot brought online 8/24/2017 Not brought online 2/13/2018 TBD +250 Not brought online 8/25/2017 I Not brought online 2/20/2018 TBD +250 l?\lot brought online 8/23/2017 Not brought online 2/27/2018 +250 Not brought online 8/31/2017 Not brought online 3/5/2018 +250 Not brought online 9/2/2017 Not brought online 3/13/2013 TBD +250 Not brought online 9/5/2017 Not brought online 3/20/2018 TBD +250 Not brought online 9/10/2017* Not-broughtonline 9/23/2017 Projected UAC E?d 39,554 43.322 39,504 421150 Of FY17 Weekly Operational Bed Cascades 7/3/2017 notes Assumptions 7-day average reported on the June 12 dashboard (71 nario 1 . . Sce UC/day) With a 1.9 discharge rate (30 day average). Referrals increase by 2.5 times from current 7 day average 5 . 2 for 60 days, drop to 2 times for the following 30 days, and cenarlo then remain 1.5 times current average with a 1.0 discharge rate (95 day LOC) . Avera of 67 referrals er da with a 2.0 dischar Scenario 3 rate Steady growth increase of +4 UAC per week from our Scenario 4 current 7-day average (71 UAC) and a 2.0 discharge rate Background The cascades use values as shown on the dashboard distributed on: Date: 7/3/2017 in Care 2621 Census Funded . Capacity 5571 (pI'Oposed capaCIty after reductions) Notes Planning scenarios are neither predictive nor prescriptive; rather they demonstrate a range of possible outcomes informing decision-making, planning processes, and resource requirements. *Scenario 2 will require additional sites in order to maintain 85% occupancy.