REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF NEW ZEALAND REINZ PROPERTY REPORT. 12 APRIL 2019 REINZ - Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. CONTENTS 2 3 5 8 PRESS RELEASE KEY DATA SUMMARY ANNUAL MEDIAN PRICE CHANGES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES VOLUMES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MEDIAN PRICE R E G I O N A L C O M M E N TA R I E S WAIKATO 9 13 17 BAY OF PLENTY 21 NORTHLAND AUCKLAND GISBORNE HAWKE’S BAY TARANAKI MANAWATU/WANGANUI WELLINGTON NELSON/MARLBOROUGH/TASMAN WEST COAST . CANTERBURY OTAGO SOUTHLAND 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 March 2019 U N C E R TA I N T Y A R O U N D L E G I S L AT I O N & D I F F I C U LT Y ACCESSING FINANCE C O N T I N U E S T O I M PA C T SALES VOLUMES BINDI NORWELL, REINZ CEO The number of residential properties sold in March fell by 12.9% from the same time last year to 6,938 (down from 7,964) according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand. The last time sales volumes fell this much on an annual basis was 17 months ago. The number of residential properties sold in March fell by 12.9% from the same time last year to 6,938 (down from 7,964) according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand. The last time sales volumes fell this much on an annual basis was 17 months ago. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the number of properties sold fell by 10.5% when compared to the same time last year (from 5,513 to 4,932). In Auckland, the number of properties sold in March fell by -18.2% year-on-year (from 2,451 to 2,006) – the lowest for the month of March since 2008. Regions with the greatest decrease in annual sales volumes during March were: • Gisborne: -33.3% (from 75 to 50 – 25 fewer houses) • Marlborough: -32.2% (from 121 to 82 – 39 fewer houses) • Northland: -24.4% (from 246 to 186 – 60 fewer houses). Only one region saw an annual increase in sales volumes during March: • West Coast: +2.1% (from 47 to 48 – 1 additional house sold). 2    REINZ Monthly Property Report Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “At a time when sales volumes are normally very strong and total sales figures for the country are typically well over the 7,000 mark, with 6,938 sales this was the lowest number of properties sold for the month of March since March 2011. “Despite some extremely competitive mortgage rates on offer from the banks and the high chance of an OCR cut in the near future, it appears the legislative changes on the horizon and the difficulty accessing finance are now really starting to impact the housing market in terms of sales volumes. Hopefully, as we gain more certainty over the coming months – particularly in relation to CGT we’ll start to see volumes pick up. However, winter is normally a quieter time of year, so time will tell what happens with sales volumes going forward,” continues Norwell. “Looking at the regions in more detail, 15 out of 16 regions across the country saw an annual fall in sales volumes. With listings down in both February and March, it’s little wonder that sales volumes are down so significantly,” continues Norwell. “Sales volumes in Auckland were down 18.2% from the same time last year, with all areas bar Waitakere City, seeing a fall in volumes year-on-year. Despite, the large fall in volumes, this was the highest number of properties sold in the City of Sails for four months,” says Norwell. K E Y D ATA SUM MA RY MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE YEAR-ON-YEAR National $585,000 - up from $560,000 + 4.5% year-on-year New Zealand Ex Auckland $491,000 - up from $460,000 + 6.7% year-on-year Auckland $856,000 - down from $880,000 - 2.7% year-on-year MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE MONTH-ON-MONTH National $585,000 - up from $560,000 + 4.5% since last month New Zealand Ex Auckland $491,000 - down from $493,000 -0.4% since last month Auckland $856,000 - up from $851,000 +0.6% since last month VOLUME SOLD YEAR-ON-YEAR National 6,938 - down from 7,964 - 12.9% year-on-year New Zealand Ex Auckland 4,932 - down from 5,513 - 10.5% year-on-year Auckland 2,006 - down from 2,451 - 18.2% year-on-year VOLUME SOLD MONTH-ON-MONTH National 6,938 - up from 6,084 + 14.0% since last month New Zealand Ex Auckland 4,932 - up from 4,703 + 4.9% since last month Auckland 2,006 - up from 1,381 + 45.3% since last month REINZ HOUSE PRICE INDEX National 2,770 - up from 2,709 + 2.3% year-on-year New Zealand Ex Auckland 2,727 - up from 2,545 + 7.2% year-on-year Auckland 2,823 - down from 2,908 - 2.9% year-on-year SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE National Down 1.9%, up 4.7% on March 2018 New Zealand Ex Auckland Down 2.2%, up 6.6% on March 2018 Auckland Down 5.3%, down 2.5% on March 2018 MEDIAN DAYS TO SELL National 36 - 2 days longer than the same month last year New Zealand Ex Auckland 34 - 1 day longer than the same month last year Auckland 42 - 5 days longer than the same month last year 3    REINZ Monthly Property Report March 2019 Record median house price recorded for NZ in March Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 4.5% in March to a record $585,000, up from $560,000 in March 2018. Median price increases for New Zealand excluding Auckland were even stronger increasing by 6.7% to $491,000 up from $460,000 in March last year. Median house prices in Auckland fell by 2.7% from the same time last year to $856,000 – down from $880,000. Despite the year-on-year fall, prices in March were the highest Auckland has seen for three months. There were three regions that saw record median prices achieved in March: • Southland: +25.0% to $300,000 (up from $240,000 at the same time last year) • Otago: +21.6% to $492,000 (up from $404,500 at the same time last year) • Hawke’s Bay: +10.8% to $493,000 (up from $445,000 at the same time last year). “March saw 14 out of 16 regions experience an annual increase in the median price and record prices for New Zealand, Hawke’s Bay, Otago and Southland again showing the impact that a lack of listings has on price. The only two regions to experience an annual decrease in median price were Auckland and the West Coast,” says Norwell. 4    REINZ Monthly Property Report “Looking into the regions in more detail, Hastings District, Wellington City and Invercargill have all had record median prices two months in a row, showing the continued strength in these areas. Interestingly, the Kaikoura District also saw a record median in March – the last time the Kaikoura District had a record median price was more than 14 years ago!” points out Norwell. “Auckland’s 2.7% decrease in median price to $856,000 is partly a result in the number of properties sold for more than $2 million which fell from 8.1% of the market in March 2018 to 5.5% in March 2019. Looking at the Auckland picture, the median price has just continued to hover around the $850,000 mark – the same thing we’ve seen for nearly three years now suggesting that perhaps the Auckland market has found its ‘new normal’ for the time being,” says Norwell. ANNUAL MEDIAN PRICE CHANGES NATIONAL MEDIAN PRICE  UP 4.5% TO NORTHLAND $500,000  9.9% BAY OF PLENTY $585,000  1.7% AUCKLAND $856,000  -2.7% GISBORNE $380,000  15.2% WAIKATO $529,000  3.7% $585,000 MEDIAN DAYS TO SELL 36 TARANAKI $375,000  9.3% MANAWATU/WANGANUI $339,000  15.5% NELSON $552,500  9.4% TASMAN $606,000  6.3% R WEST COAST $206,000  -4.2% R HAWKE’S BAY $493,000  10.8% WELLINGTON $620,000  5.1% MARLBOROUGH $458,000  13.4% CANTERBURY $460,000 SOUTHLAND $300,000 25.0%  R 2.2% OTAGO $492,000  21.6% R RECORD MEDIAN PRICES  INCREASED  STABLE  5    REINZ Monthly Property Report DECREASED March 2019 REINZ House Price Index (HPI) increases 2.3% annually The REINZ House Price Index for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 2.3% year-on-year to 2,770. The HPI for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased 7.2% from March 2018 to a new record high of 2,727. The Auckland HPI decreased -2.9% year-on-year to 2,823. The REINZ HPI saw 6 out of 12 regions experience a record high level over the past 12 months, highlighting the overall continued strength of the property market in some regions. In March, the Southland region had the highest annual growth rate, a 16.8% increase to a new record high of 2901, followed by Manawatu/Wanganui in second place with an annual growth rate of 16.7% to a new record high of 2,984 and in third place was Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay with an 11.4% annual increase to 2,732 – down -0.8% from its peak in February 2019. Days to Sell drops significantly since February In March the median number of days to sell a property increased by 2 days from 34 to 36 when compared to March last year, but it fell by 11 days from February 2019 where the median number of days to sell was 47. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the median days to sell increased by 1 day to 34, but fell by 9 days when compared to February. Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 5 days from 37 to 42 when compared to the same time last year, but this was a drop of 15 days when comparing to the previous month. Manawatu/Wanganui again had the lowest days to sell of all regions at 25 days, down 5 days from 30 at the same time last year. The West Coast again had the highest days to sell of any region at 69 an increase of 5 days since March 2018, but a fall of 22 days since February. “We’re hearing that vendors are starting to readjust their pricing expectations, which has contributed to the significant fall in the median number of days to sell a property in March compared to February this year,” says Norwell. 6    REINZ Monthly Property Report Inventory The total number of properties available for sale nationally increased by 4.5% from 27,018 to 28,228 – an increase of 1,210 properties compared to 12 months ago – the first annual increase in inventory levels in 5 months. March saw 7 regions with an annual increase in inventory levels. Regions with the largest percentage increases were: • Marlborough: +15.3% from 339 to 391 – an additional 52 properties. • Auckland: +15.2% from 9,572 to 11,026 – an additional 1,454 properties • Waikato: +11.9% from 1,941 to 2,172 – an additional 231 properties. • Regions with the biggest percentage decrease in inventory were: • West Coast: -24.8% from 584 to 439 – 145 fewer properties • Manawatu/Wanganui: -19.6% from 1,074 to 864 – 210 fewer properties • Otago: -19.4% from 717 to 578 – 139 fewer properties. Wellington once again saw the lowest number of weeks’ inventory with only 8 weeks inventory available to prospective purchasers. This was closely followed by Otago and Hawke’s Bay on only 9 weeks’ inventory, followed by Manawatu/Wanganui on 10 weeks’ inventory available. March 2019 AUCTIONS PRICE BANDS Auctions were used in 13.2% of all sales across the country in March, with 918 properties selling under the hammer – this is down from the same time last year, when 15.6% of properties (1243 were sold via auction. The number of homes sold for less than $500,000 across New Zealand fell from 41.8% of the market (3,328 properties) in March 2018 to 38.5% of the market (2,668 properties) in March 2019. Gisborne again had the highest percentage of sales by auction across the country with 30.0% (or 15 properties) in the region sold under the hammer – down marginally from 30.7% (23 properties) in March 2018. The number of properties sold in the $500,000 to $750,000 bracket increased from 29.0% in March 2018 (2,307 properties) to 30.5% in March 2019 (2,113 properties). Auckland saw the second largest percentage of sales by auction on 25.1% (503 properties) down from 29.1% in March 2018 (714 properties). Bay of Plenty remained in its usual third place in March with 12.7% (60 properties) sold under the hammer, down from 15.7% (85 properties) in March 2018. At the top end of the market, properties sold for $1 million or more decreased from 15.5% in March 2018 (1,232 houses) to 14.8% in March 2019 (1,029 houses). NEW LISTINGS During March, new listings fell 3.1% nationally when compared to the same time last year, from 12,490 to 12,102. The only regions to experience an uplift in new listings were Wellington (+7.3%), Southland (+5.4%), Auckland (+4.6%) and Waikato (+3.9%). Vanessa Taylor, realestate.co.nz spokesperson says: “In March, the three main regions of Wellington, Auckland and Waikato dominated new listing increases. This has been particularly good news for home hunters in the Wellington region who have been long starved for choice.” Price distribution breakdown March 2018 March 2019 $1 million plus 1,232 15.5% 1,029 14.8% $750,000 to $999,999 1,097 13.8% 1,128 16.3% $500,000 to $749,999 2,307 29.0% 2,113 30.5% Under $500,000 3,328 41.8% 2,668 38.5% All Properties Sold 7,964 100.0% 6,938 100.0% For further information, please contact Dee Crooks, Head of Communications at REINZ, on 021 953 308. NOTE TO EDITORS: The monthly REINZ residential sales reports remain the most recent, complete and accurate statistics on house prices and sales in New Zealand. They are based on actual sales reported by real estate agents. These sales are taken as of the date that a transaction becomes unconditional, up to 5:00pm on the last business day of the month. Other surveys of the residential property market are based on information from Territorial Authorities regarding settlement and the receipt of documents by the relevant Territorial Authority from a solicitor. As such, this information involves a lag of four to six weeks before the sale is recorded. 7    REINZ Monthly Property Report March 2019 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES VOLUMES COMPARED TO FEBRUARY VOLUME CHANGE New Zealand SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHANGE COMPARED TO MARCH 2018 VOLUME CHANGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHANGE 14.0% -3.8% -12.9% -8.8% NZ ex Akl 4.9% -2.7% -10.5% -6.0% Northland 4.5% 3.1% -24.4% -19.6% Auckland 45.3% -3.8% -18.2% -14.9% Waikato 7.2% -3.3% -14.1% -12.0% Bay of Plenty 4.6% -6.4% -12.2% -8.5% -10.7% -14.5% -33.3% -27.2% Hawke's Bay 3.0% -3.0% -8.3% -1.6% Manawatu/Wanganui 3.6% -1.1% -7.1% -4.8% -8.4% -4.8% -15.9% -8.0% 1.5% -6.3% -10.2% -3.3% Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman -6.2% -15.1% -24.2% -25.1% Canterbury 13.6% -1.5% -2.3% 2.5% West Coast 4.3% 0.8% 2.1% 14.9% Otago 4.9% 2.7% -5.4% 0.5% Southland 9.9% -3.0% -5.7% 2.4% Gisborne Taranaki Wellington SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MEDIAN PRICE COMPARED TO FEBRUARY MEDIAN CHANGE New Zealand SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHANGE COMPARED TO MARCH 2018 MEDIAN CHANGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHANGE 4.5% -1.9% 4.5% 4.7% NZ ex Akl -0.4% -2.2% 6.7% 6.6% Northland -0.1% 0.1% 9.9% 11.5% Auckland 0.6% -5.3% -2.7% -2.5% Waikato -0.2% -1.7% 3.7% 3.5% Bay of Plenty -0.3% -2.7% 1.7% 2.3% Gisborne -2.6% -0.7% 15.2% 12.6% 4.3% 3.3% 10.8% 9.3% Manawatu/Wanganui -2.0% -2.2% 15.5% 16.1% Taranaki -1.3% 0.0% 9.3% 11.6% Wellington -3.7% -4.9% 5.1% 6.3% Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 0.0% -1.4% 9.8% 10.1% Canterbury 1.1% -0.8% 2.2% 1.5% West Coast 8.4% 1.3% -4.2% -7.1% Otago 7.0% 6.0% 21.6% 22.5% Southland 4.5% 3.0% 25.0% 25.1% Hawke's Bay 8    REINZ Monthly Property Report March 2019 “In March, the Northland market saw sales volumes decrease by nearly a quarter (-24.4%) when compared to the same time last year, but on the flipside median prices were up by 9.9% due to a large increase in sales in the $750,000$999,999 bracket. Total inventory was up 10.1% year-onyear, but new listings during the month were down 4.5%. Anecdotally, fewer first home buyers were active during the months, but investors were more active. Banks are competing on interest rates, but are tough on lending, which could explain why we see fewer first home buyers in the market. With most contracts including a finance clause, there are fewer cash sales compared to when there was more competition a few months back. The current trend is that we see a general tightening of the market, we see an increase of inventory giving buyers more options and we also see that valuers are leaning towards more conservative valuations.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO NORTHLAND REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 9.9% • Sales Count down 24.4% • Days to Sell increased 6 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 0.1% • Seasonally adjusted median price up 0.1% • Sales Count up 4.5% • Seasonally adjusted sales count up 3.1% • Days to Sell decreased 17 days. 9    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed minute decrease in median price was fractionally less than expected and the observed increase in sales count was a more than expected. The current Days to Sell of 48 days is a lot less than the 10-year average for March which is 64 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 40 weeks, 14 weeks more than in March 2018. March 2019 N O RT H L A N D R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Far North District 440,000 375,000 416,500 45 57 93 Kaipara District 555,000 640,000 590,000 21 22 23 Whangarei District 500,000 525,000 455,000 120 99 130 Northland Region 500,000 500,500 455,000 186 178 246 Vs… Feb-19 Mar-18 Vs… Feb-19 Mar-18 17.3% 5.6% -21.1% -51.6% -13.3% -5.9% -4.5% -8.7% Whangarei District -4.8% 9.9% 21.2% -7.7% Northland Region -0.1% 9.9% 4.5% -24.4% Far North District Kaipara District 10    REINZ Monthly Property Report GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in median price has been increasing at a slower rate over the past year compared to prior years, with the trend in sales volume showing signs of decrease after a period of stability. The days to sell trend is easing. The House Price Index has had relatively low growth over the past 12 months. Northland Region Median Price Past 5 Years 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Source: REINZ Northland Median Price 12 month MA Northland Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: REINZ 11    REINZ Monthly Property Report Northland Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Northland Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Northland DTS 12 month MA Northland Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 12    REINZ Monthly Property Report Northland HPI March 2019 “The Auckland market saw the usual lift in sales volume month-on-month, but volumes were down significantly from the same time last year. With a focus on realistic pricing by vendors, we have seen more houses with an advertised asking price than in a long time. Interestingly, the median price for Auckland just keeps hovering around the $850,000 mark suggesting the market may have found its new normal for the time being. Anecdotally agreements have also had more clauses and conditions than we’ve seen for a while. Towards the end of the month we saw more consistency in the market with buyers showing genuine interest and vendors who were more inclined to meet the market. First home buyers became more active again encouraged through the continuation of low interest rates, lowered sale prices and employer confidence. However, prices are still causing more people to look further out in the suburbs and at new developments to find affordable options. For owner/ occupiers, location is still extremely important as school zones continue to drive a lot of interest.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO AUCKLAND R E I N Z R E G I O N A L CO M M E N TA RY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price down 2.7% • Sales Count down 18.2% • Days to Sell increased 5 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 0.6% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 5.3% • Sales Count up 45.3% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 3.8% • Days to Sell decreased 15 days. 13    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed minute increase in median price was less than was expected and the observed huge increase in sales count was less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 42 days is above the 10-year average for March which is 34 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 26 weeks, eight weeks more than in March 2018. March 2019 AU C K L A N D R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Auckland City 950,000 981,000 958,000 656 475 905 Franklin District 695,000 665,000 650,000 80 70 106 Manukau City 840,000 849,000 837,000 383 243 385 North Shore City 1,010,500 988,988 1,080,000 304 198 411 Papakura District 685,550 649,000 685,000 76 60 101 Rodney District 850,000 870,000 852,500 173 131 215 Waitakere City 775,000 775,000 780,000 334 204 328 856,000 851,000 880,000 2,006 1,381 2,451 Vs… Feb-19 Mar-18 Vs… Feb-19 Mar-18 -3.2% -0.8% 38.1% -27.5% Franklin District 4.5% 6.9% 14.3% -24.5% Manukau City -1.1% 0.4% 57.6% -0.5% North Shore City 2.2% -6.4% 53.5% -26.0% Papakura District 5.6% 0.1% 26.7% -24.8% Rodney District -2.3% -0.3% 32.1% -19.5% Waitakere City 0.0% -0.6% 63.7% 1.8% Auckland Region 0.6% -2.7% 45.3% -18.2% Auckland Region Auckland City 14    REINZ Monthly Property Report GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in the median price was flat to decreasing over the past 24 months with the volume trend flat over the past year. The days to sell trend continues to ease. The House Price Index resumed it’s negative monthly movement this month and has the worst 3 and 12 month movements of all the regions. Auckland Region Median Price Past 5 Years 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 Source: REINZ Auckland Median Price 12 month MA Auckland Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: REINZ 15    REINZ Monthly Property Report Auckland Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Auckland Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Auckland DTS 12 month MA Auckl a nd Region House Pri ce Index Pa s t 5 Yea rs 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 16    REINZ Monthly Property Report Auckl a nd HPI March 2019 “The Waikato market saw prices increase in most areas across the region, but the number of properties sold fall across most areas. Finance continues to be available, although it appears that banks are still being cautious with lending. Purchasers are appearing extremely organised and informed and when they identify the right property for them can make a move quickly as evidenced by the fall in days to sell when compared to February. We saw fewer multi-offers which has taken some of the pressure off purchasers. Open homes were well attended for the start of 2019, with a slight increase in genuine buyers compared to last year. New listings were up by 3.9% and total inventory increased by 11.9% annually. The market is positive and there are currently no signs that April and May will track any differently.” Neville Falconer REINZ Regional Director WAIKATO REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 3.7% • Sales Count down 14.1% • Days to Sell did not change Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 0.2% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 1.7% • Sales Count up 7.2% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 3.3% • Days to Sell decreased 15 days. 17    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed minute decrease in median price was in contrast to the expected small increase and the observed increase in sales count was less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 36 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 44 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 19 weeks, four weeks more than in March 2018. March 2019 WA IK ATO R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Hamilton City 575,000 542,000 535,000 278 251 349 Hauraki District 430,000 400,000 420,000 20 27 27 Matamata-Piako District 468,000 461,000 450,000 38 42 61 Otorohanga District 325,000 385,000 300,000 14 9 7 South Waikato District 273,000 270,000 212,000 39 35 45 Taupo District 485,000 510,000 440,000 92 81 93 Thames-Coromandel District 630,000 680,000 650,000 83 83 97 Waikato District 463,500 510,000 492,000 60 52 68 Waipa District 571,000 578,000 531,500 83 79 77 Waitomo District 200,000 242,500 160,000 9 9 10 Waikato Region 529,000 530,000 510,000 716 668 834 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Hamilton City 6.1% 7.5% 10.8% -20.3% Hauraki District 7.5% 2.4% -25.9% -25.9% Matamata-Piako District 1.5% 4.0% -9.5% -37.7% -15.6% 8.3% 55.6% 100.0% 1.1% 28.8% 11.4% -13.3% Taupo District -4.9% 10.2% 13.6% -1.1% Thames-Coromandel District -7.4% -3.1% 0.0% -14.4% Waikato District -9.1% -5.8% 15.4% -11.8% Waipa District -1.2% 7.4% 5.1% 7.8% -17.5% 25.0% 0.0% -10.0% -0.2% 3.7% 7.2% -14.1% Vs… Otorohanga District South Waikato District Waitomo District Waikato Region 18    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend has been steadily increasing over the past 18 months, with the trend in sales volume remaining quite stable for over the past 18 months. The days to sell trend is flat to easing. The House Price Index has had moderately low movement over the past 12 months. Waikato Region Median Price Past 5 Years 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Source: REINZ Waikato Median Price 12 month MA Waikato Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Source: REINZ 19    REINZ Monthly Property Report Waikato Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Waikato Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Waikato DTS 12 month MA Waikato Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 20    REINZ Monthly Property Report Waikato HPI March 2019 “The Bay of Plenty region saw median prices increase by 1.7% but results were varied across the region with Kawerau seeing a 46.5% increase in prices, yet Opotiki saw a fall of -15.2% annually. The Rotorua District saw a record median price achieved during March of $449,000 breaking June 2018’s record of $435,000. The number of houses sold in the $1 million to $1.99 million price bracket increased from 5.2% in March 2018 to 10.8% in March 2019. Buyers continued to remain relaxed, taking their time making any decisions. We also saw that once buyers did make a commitment, multi offers were common. Investors continued to take a wait and see approach as further information from the Government becomes available in relation to Capital Gains Tax and changes to the Residential Tenancies Act. New listing dropped 14.8% when compared to the same time last year and total inventory levels fell 3.5% (now at 1,695).” Neville Falconer REINZ Regional Director BAY OF PLENTY REINZ REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 1.7% • Sales Count down 12.2% • Days to Sell increased 3 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 0.3% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 2.7% • Sales Count up 4.6% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 6.4% • Days to Sell decreased 11 days. 21    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed minute decrease in median price was in contrast to an expected increase and the observed increase in sales count was smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 44 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 50 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 14 weeks, one week less than in March 2018. March 2019 BAY O F P L E N TY R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES  DAYS TO SELL OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Kawerau District 315,000 255,000 215,000 15 17 8 Opotiki District 290,000 385,000 342,000 5 13 8 Rotorua District R 449,000 420,000 345,000 106 92 122 Tauranga City 680,000 680,000 650,000 264 222 306 Western Bay of Plenty District 620,000 650,000 600,000 49 68 53 Whakatane District 489,000 435,000 369,000 35 41 43 585,000 587,000 575,000 474 453 540 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Kawerau District 23.5% 46.5% -11.8% 87.5% Opotiki District -24.7% -15.2% -61.5% -37.5% Rotorua District 6.9% 30.1% 15.2% -13.1% Tauranga City 0.0% 4.6% 18.9% -13.7% Western Bay of Plenty District -4.6% 3.3% -27.9% -7.5% Whakatane District 12.4% 32.5% -14.6% -18.6% -0.3% 1.7% 4.6% -12.2% Bay of Plenty Region Vs… Bay of Plenty Region 22    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in median price is continuing to rise strongly, albeit at a slightly lesser rate over the past 9 months than prior. The trend in sales volume has been stable to increasing over the past year. The days to sell trend is easing slightly. The House Price Index has had moderate movement over the past 12 months. Bay of Plenty Region Median Price Past 5 Years 660,000 600,000 540,000 480,000 420,000 360,000 300,000 Source: REINZ BOP Median Price 12 month MA Bay of Plenty Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: REINZ 23    REINZ Monthly Property Report BOP Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Bay of Plenty Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ BOP DTS 12 month MA Bay of Plenty Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 24    REINZ Monthly Property Report BOP HPI March 2019 “The Gisborne market continued to be active for the first month of autumn. Auctions are performing very well and the number of auctions each month is increasing due to the high demand in the market. Especially for the more affordable properties up to $500,000. The houses that are not sold under the hammer are the top end properties which appear to be sitting on the market longer, which is a change compared to a few months ago. Vendors that use a bidding strategy see multi-bids. However, in the last month, the number of people bidding per house on sale has decreased which could be an early indication that banks are tightening their lending criteria. All points to an April that will continue in a similar trend, with the low end being very busy, while the top end will take longer to sell.” Neville Falconer REINZ Regional Director GISBORNE REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 15.2% • Sales Count down 33.3% • Days to Sell increased 3 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 2.6% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 0.7% • Sales Count down 10.7% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 14.5% • Days to Sell decreased 16 days. 25    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed small decrease in median price was not as big as expected and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected increase. The current Days to Sell of 35 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 40 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 11 weeks, two weeks less than in March 2018. March 2019 G I S BOR N E R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Gisborne District 380,000 390,000 330,000 50 56 75 Gisborne Region 380,000 390,000 330,000 50 56 75 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Gisborne District -2.6% 15.2% -10.7% -33.3% Gisborne Region -2.6% 15.2% -10.7% -33.3% Vs… 26    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is increasing strongly with the volume trend being steady. The days to sell trend is flat to easing. The House Price Index for the Gisborne/Hawke's Bay has had the third strongest HPI growth of all regions over the past three and 12 months. Gisborne Region Median Price Past 5 Years 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Source: REINZ Gisborne Median Price 12 month MA Gisborne Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ 27    REINZ Monthly Property Report Gisborne Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Gisborne Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Gisborne DTS 12 month MA Gisborne/Hawke's Bay Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 28    REINZ Monthly Property Report Gisborne/Hawke's Bay HPI March 2019 “A 10.8% increase in median house prices saw the Hawke’s Bay region achieve another record median price of $493,000 the only region in the North Island to see a record in March. However, with new listings down 0.8% annually, the number of properties sold fell by 8.3%. Total inventory increased by 6.1%. First home buyer activity remained at February levels and there was an increase of investors active on the market. Open homes slowed down compared to the previous month. Overall, vendors were slightly more optimistic and raised asking prices by 0.2% at the same time at the number of cash buyers has dropped. The market will likely to continue to be strong, in particular, in the lower end of market where the competition remains high for affordable homes.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO HAWKE’S BAY REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 10.8% • Sales Count down 8.3% • Days to Sell increased by 7 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 4.3% • Seasonally adjusted median price up 3.3% • Sales Count up 3.0% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 3.0% • Days to Sell did not change. 29    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed increase in median price was not as large as expected and the observed decrease in sales count was slightly larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 34 days is less than the 10year average for March which is 39 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at nine weeks, the same as in March 2018. March 2019 H AW K E ’S BAY R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES  DAYS TO SELL OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Central Hawke’s Bay District R 390,000 310,000 283,000 21 14 29 Hastings District 510,000 468,200 436,000 101 99 109 518,500 510,000 486,000 110 110 115 126,000 136,000 155,000 10 12 11 493,000 472,500 445,000 242 235 264 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 25.8% 37.8% 50.0% -27.6% Hastings District 8.9% 17.0% 2.0% -7.3% Napier City 1.7% 6.7% 0.0% -4.3% Wairoa District -7.4% -18.7% -16.7% -9.1% Hawke’s Bay Region 4.3% 10.8% 3.0% -8.3% Napier City R R Wairoa District Hawke’s Bay Region Vs… Central Hawke’s Bay District 30    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is rising very strongly, and the sales volume trend has been increasing over the past six months after years of decreasing. The days to sell trend has been stable for two years. The House Price Index for the Gisborne/Hawke's Bay has had the third strongest HPI growth of all regions over the past three and 12 months. Hawke's Bay Region Median Price Past 5 Years 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Source: REINZ Hawke's Bay Median Price 12 month MA Hawke's Bay Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 350 300 250 200 150 100 Source: REINZ 31    REINZ Monthly Property Report Hawke's Bay Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Hawke's Bay Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Hawke's Bay DTS 12 month MA Gisborne/Hawke's Bay Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 32    REINZ Monthly Property Report Gisborne/Hawke's Bay HPI March 2019 “The Taranaki market saw a positive March market with an upswing in total inventory (up 6.4%) and there was also strong buyer activity with multi-offers in the lower to medium priced homes being the norm. The Taranaki region also saw the greatest fall in median number of days to sell falling 8 days from 35 to 27. However, the new listings fell 23.9% yearon-year, which limits the market offering and this reflected in the increased median asking price from vendors. It went up 9.1%, now at $437,871. There has been an upswing of first home buyers compared to last month and March last year, but there were fewer investors active. Open homes generated higher interest as the competition is still strong. Hopefully next month we will see even more new listings coming to market as this would help with choice for buyers.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO TARANAKI REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 9.3% • Sales Count down 15.9% • Days to Sell decreased 8 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 1.3% • Seasonally adjusted median price had no movement • Sales Count down 8.4% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 4.8% • Days to Sell decreased 7 days. 33    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed small decrease in median price was exactly what was expected and the observed decrease in sales count was larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 27 days is much less than the 10year average for March which is 41 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 17 weeks, two weeks more than in March 2018. March 2019 TAR AN A K I R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 New Plymouth District 452,000 425,000 415,000 105 126 129 South Taranaki District 250,000 220,000 182,000 51 45 53 Stratford District 290,000 271,000 238,000 18 19 25 Taranaki Region 375,000 380,000 343,000 174 190 207 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 New Plymouth District 6.4% 8.9% -16.7% -18.6% South Taranaki District 13.6% 37.4% 13.3% -3.8% Stratford District 7.0% 21.8% -5.3% -28.0% Taranaki Region -1.3% 9.3% -8.4% -15.9% Vs… 34    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend continues the upwards trajectory it has been on for the past few years, but at an increased rate over the last six months. The sales volume trend has been stable over the past 12 months. The days to sell trend has been improving over the past 12 months. The House Price Index had moderate growth over the past year. Taranaki Region Median Price Past 5 Years 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Source: REINZ Taranaki Median Price 12 month MA Taranaki Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: REINZ 35    REINZ Monthly Property Report Taranaki Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Taranaki Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Taranaki DTS 12 month MA Taranaki Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 36    REINZ Monthly Property Report Taranaki HPI March 2019 “The Manawatu/Wanganui market tracked very close to the February market, with a market that is highly competitive because of the shortage of available properties on the market. This competition is seeing properties snapped up and as a result the region has the lowest median number of days to sell for the whole country. Total inventory down was down by 19.6% year-on-year (now at 864) and new listings down by 13.5% year-on-year (507 new listings). Attendance at newly listed properties is very good, purchasers have a good hold on the market value and will recognise overpriced properties. This is perhaps one of the main reasons as to why we see that the vendor asking price is holding instead of increasing as well as the fact that we still see many multioffers being made. Uncertainty for investors are holding them back and we even some landlords that are leaving the investment market due to these uncertainties of coming Governmental changes. If the listing numbers don’t start increasing soon, the market will continue in the same way as it has been for the first three months of the year.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO MANAWATU/ WANGANUI REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 15.5% • Sales Count down 7.1% • Days to Sell decreased 5 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price decreased 2.0% • Seasonally adjusted median price decreased 2.2% • Sales Count increased 3.6% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 1.1% • Days to Sell decreased 4 days. 37    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed decrease in median price was larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 25 days is much less than the 10-year average for March which is 41 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 10 weeks, one week less than in March 2018. March 2019 MA NAWAT U / WAN GA N U I R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R VOLUMES   DAYS TO SELL OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 355,000 330,000 292,000 48 65 75 Manawatu District 410,000 385,000 358,000 38 34 45 Palmerston North City 415,000 430,000 359,700 141 144 148 Rangitikei District 240,000 235,000 180,000 28 27 23 Ruapehu District 210,000 179,000 187,500 26 16 22 Tararua District 219,000 217,000 162,000 35 30 37 Whanganui District 262,500 244,000 210,000 90 76 87 339,000 346,000 293,500 406 392 437 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Horowhenua District 7.6% 21.6% -26.2% -36.0% Manawatu District 6.5% 14.5% 11.8% -15.6% -3.5% 15.4% -2.1% -4.7% Rangitikei District 2.1% 33.3% 3.7% 21.7% Ruapehu District 17.3% 12.0% 62.5% 18.2% Tararua District 0.9% 35.2% 16.7% -5.4% Whanganui District 7.6% 25.0% 18.4% 3.4% -2.0% 15.5% 3.6% -7.1% Horowhenua District R Manawatu/Wanganui Region Vs… Palmerston North City Manawatu/Wanganui Region 38    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend continues the strong upwards trajectory it has been on for the past two and half years, with the volume trend showing a fairly stable trend over the past 12 months. The days to sell trend has been flat to improving over the past nine months. The House Price Index has had the second strongest increase over the past three and twelve months of all the regions. Manawatu/Wanganui Region Median Price Past 5 Years 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Manawatu/Wanganui Median Price 12 month MA Source: REINZ Manawatu/Wanganui Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Manawatu/Wanganui Volumes Source: REINZ 39    REINZ Monthly Property Report 12 month MA March 2019 Manawatu/Wanganui Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Manawatu/Wanganui DTS 12 month MA Manawatu/Wanganui Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 40    REINZ Monthly Property Report Manawatu/Wanganui HPI March 2019 “Wellington experienced an active market in March and it also saw a much-needed increase in inventory. However, despite the 6.6% increase of total inventory, the continuation of low stock levels not meeting the market demand has meant many vendors are choosing not to put their property on the market for fear of not finding a new property to buy if they sell first. Issues with insurance and access to finance continue to remain top of mind. First home buyers continue to look for affordable homes in the suburbs, with a surge in Upper Hutt especially. Wellington CBD has a mix of investors and those looking to move to their second home. The City saw another record median price of $773,000 up from $769,000 last month. Vendors’ expectations are high. It is doubtful that Wellington will see any price drop at this stage as there is a lack of land to build on and this will keep the prices and demand high.” Mark Coffey REINZ Regional Director WELLINGTON REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 5.1% • Sales Count down 10.2% • Days to Sell increased 1 day Compared to February 2019 • Median Price down 3.7% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 4.9% • Sales Count up 1.5% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 6.3% • Days to Sell decreased 2 days 41    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed decrease in median price was in contrast to the expected small increase and the observed small increase in sales count was less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 30 days is less than the 10-year average for March of 31 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at eight weeks, one week more than in March 2018. This is the lowest inventory (by weeks) of all the regions this month. March 2019 WE L L IN GTON R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Carterton District 445,000 410,000 420,000 18 19 21 Kapiti Coast District 575,000 580,000 527,000 89 105 115 Lower Hutt City 580,000 595,000 520,000 191 137 166 Masterton District 388,000 365,000 325,000 52 54 68 Porirua City 651,000 668,000 640,000 87 65 81 South Wairarapa District 470,000 501,435 378,500 35 21 20 Upper Hutt City 520,000 600,000 535,000 78 101 86 R 773,000 769,000 711,000 259 295 344 Wellington Region 620,000 643,500 590,000 809 797 901 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 8.5% 6.0% -5.3% -14.3% Kapiti Coast District -0.9% 9.1% -15.2% -22.6% Lower Hutt City -2.5% 11.5% 39.4% 15.1% 6.3% 19.4% -3.7% -23.5% Porirua City -2.5% 1.7% 33.8% 7.4% South Wairarapa District -6.3% 24.2% 66.7% 75.0% Upper Hutt City -13.3% -2.8% -22.8% -9.3% Wellington City 0.5% 8.7% -12.2% -24.7% -3.7% 5.1% 1.5% -10.2% Wellington City Vs… Carterton District Masterton District Wellington Region 42    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in the median price has been strongly increasing over the past 12 months. The volume trend has been slightly falling over the past year. The days to sell trend remains flat to easing as it has been over the past two years. The House Price Index has had fairly strong growth over the past 12 months. Wellington Region Median Price Past 5 Years 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 Source: REINZ Wellington Median Price 12 month MA Wellington Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Source: REINZ 43    REINZ Monthly Property Report Wellington Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Wellington Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Wellington DTS 12 month MA Wellington Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 44    REINZ Monthly Property Report Wellington HPI March 2019 “The Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman regions all saw the number of properties fall when compared with the same time last year. With the continuation of activity, multi offers are still very common, especially in the lower price ranges and we see that a positive outlook for interest rates is somewhat helping these attitudes. However, the banks are certainly not easing up on their lending restrictions. The lower levels of inventory available continues to affect the number of active first home buyers. We saw that the Nelson/Tasman region had a further drop in new listings (down 18.1% year-on-year) and the total inventory now at 421 (down 6.4% year-on-year). Marlborough also saw new listings fall (by 2.2%) yet there was an uplift in the total inventory with a 15.3% increase year-onyear (now a total of 391 houses for sale). The investor market continues to be at the same numbers as they have been during the start of the new year and the trend of buying new builds instead of cheaper established houses appears to hold. Going forward, we are likely to continue to see an increase in priced properties and a steady market.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO NELSON/ MARLBOROUGH/ TASMAN REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 9.8% • Sales Count down 24.2% • Days to Sell increased 6 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price had no change • Seasonally adjusted median price down 1.4% • Sales Count down 6.2% • Seasonally adjusted Sales Count down 15.1% • Days to Sell decreased 12 days. 45    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed stability in median price was in contrast to the expected small increase and the observed decrease in sales count was in contrast to the expected moderately large increase. The current Days to Sell of 35 days is the same as the 10-year average for March. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 15 weeks, one and half weeks more than in March 2018. March 2019 NE LS O N/ M A R L BOR OU G H / TA S MA N R E G ION TR E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Nelson City 552,500 563,000 505,000 89 99 107 Marlborough District 458,000 440,000 404,000 82 95 121 Tasman District 606,000 585,000 570,000 70 63 90 540,000 540,000 492,000 241 257 318 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 -1.9% 9.4% -10.1% -16.8% Marlborough District 4.1% 13.4% -13.7% -32.2% Tasman District 3.6% 6.3% 11.1% -22.2% 0.0% 9.8% -6.2% -24.2% Nel/Marl/Tas Region Vs… Nelson City Nel/Marl/Tas Region 46    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend for the region has been climbing over the past one and half years, with strong results over the last six months. The sales volume trend had been increasing over the past year but has dipped slightly in the past couple of months. The days to sell trend has been easing over the past two years. The House Price Index has had moderately low movement over the past 12 months. Nelson/Marlborough /Tasman Region Median Price Past 5 Years 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Median Price 12 month MA Source: REINZ Nelson/Marlborough /Tasman Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 350 300 250 200 150 100 Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Volumes Source: REINZ 47    REINZ Monthly Property Report 12 month MA March 2019 Nelson/Marlborough /Tasman Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman DTS Source: REINZ 12 month MA Nelson/Marlborough /Tasman/West Coast House Price Index Past 5 Years 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 48    REINZ Monthly Property Report Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast HPI March 2019 “The West Coast market saw a return in interest across the board in March and was the only region in NZ to see annual volume growth (+2.1%), with some of the higher end properties gaining attention. However, median house price fell 4.3% year-on-year. The region saw a 11 day fall in the median number of days to sell when compared to March 2018 but a staggering 22 day decrease when compared to February. The LVR restrictions are still creating a barrier to entry as couples are struggling to accumulate sufficient savings to enter the market. While banks need to be prudent with their lending, access to finance continues to be an active talking point across the region. With the winter coming, we are seeing the usual seasonal slowdown in the number of active investors, but there were more of them this year compared to last year. The West Coast region doesn’t usually hold open homes, but this is changing as many out of town buyers are used to them and that has created a demand. The number of cash buyers increased as the region is now an option for cashed-up buyers from city markets looking for spare capital post-purchase and they are spread across the market. With winter approaching, the market will most likely cool down if it follows its usual pattern.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO WEST COAST REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price down 4.2% • Sales Count up 2.1% • Days to Sell increased 5 days Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 8.4% • Seasonally adjusted median price up 1.3% • Sales Count up 4.3% • Seasonally adjusted sales count up 0.8% • Days to Sell decreased 22 days. 49    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed increase in median price was slightly larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was fractionally larger than expected. The current Days to Sell of 69 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 70 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 36 weeks, 8 weeks less than in March 2018. March 2019 W E ST COAST R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Buller District 182,500 180,000 180,000 14 22 21 Grey District 160,000 245,000 217,500 19 17 18 Westland District 226,000 190,000 290,000 15 7 8 206,000 190,000 215,000 48 46 47 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 1.4% 1.4% -36.4% -33.3% -34.7% -26.4% 11.8% 5.6% Westland District 18.9% -22.1% 114.3% 87.5% West Coast Region 8.4% -4.2% 4.3% 2.1% West Coast Region Vs… Buller District Grey District 50    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend has been gently increasing over the past year and the volume trend has been increasing over the same period. The days to sell trend has been easing sharply over the past year. The House Price Index for Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast has had fairly strong growth over the past 12 months. The House Price Index has had moderately low movement over the past 12 months. West Coast Region Median Price Past 5 Years 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Source: REINZ West Coast Median Price 12 month MA West Coast Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ 51    REINZ Monthly Property Report West Coast Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 West Coast Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 West Coast DTS Source: REINZ 12 month MA Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast House Price Index Past 5 Years 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 52    REINZ Monthly Property Report Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast HPI March 2019 “The Canterbury market followed very closely what happened in February, with the median house price marginally up by 1.1% and is now at $460,000 compared to February’s $455,000. The numbers of days, which was up to 53 last month, corrected itself and ended at 36 which is one more day compared to March 2017. There were plenty of buyers in the $550,000 price bracket and under, but buyers are taking their time and are in no hurry to commit. The higher end was slow, however, the cash buyers that are around will be found in that price bracket. Listings were down 7.0% from the same time last year, but total inventory for the region only fell by 1.9%. The lack of foreign buyers continues to impact sales volumes but has had little impact on prices in the region. Buyers are having to work harder to access finance and meet AML requirements, but three months into the new AML legislation it is starting to become just part of doing business. It was great to see an increase at open homes as the viewing numbers were strong. First home buyers continue to be a steady part of the market, and we saw a 30% increase compared to 12 months ago. Investors are forming a smaller part of the market and we are now seeing that many landlords are selling down this year, as rentals are often falling into the “too hard basket” for owneroccupiers. The market will continue to be steady, though the winter might be a bit slow but will still tick over.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO CANTERBURY REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 2.2% • Sales Count down 2.3% • Days to Sell increased 1 day Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 1.1% • Seasonally adjusted median price down 0.8% • Sales Count up 13.6% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 1.5% • Days to Sell decreased 17 days 53    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed small increase in median price was fractionally less than expected and the observed moderately large increase in sales count was a bit smaller than expected. The current Days to Sell of 36 days is higher than the 10-year average for March which is 33 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 20 weeks, one week more than in March 2018. March 2019 CA N T E R BU RY R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL  OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Ashburton District 360,000 346,000 315,000 61 42 40 Christchurch City 470,000 460,000 460,500 645 556 666 Hurunui District 380,000 459,000 392,250 16 21 23 590,000 - - 5 2 2 Mackenzie District 507,000 395,000 385,000 15 14 13 Selwyn District 552,000 565,000 545,000 76 79 90 Timaru District 350,500 371,000 351,500 72 79 85 Waimakariri District 469,000 455,000 440,000 86 65 80 Waimate District 279,000 249,000 215,000 8 8 8 460,000 455,000 450,000 984 866 1,007 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Ashburton District 4.0% 14.3% 45.2% 52.5% Christchurch City 2.2% 2.1% 16.0% -3.2% Hurunui District -17.2% -3.1% -23.8% -30.4% Kaikoura District - - 150.0% 150.0% Mackenzie District 28.4% 31.7% 7.1% 15.4% Selwyn District -2.3% 1.3% -3.8% -15.6% Timaru District -5.5% -0.3% -8.9% -15.3% 3.1% 6.6% 32.3% 7.5% 12.0% 29.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.2% 13.6% -2.3% Kaikoura District R Canterbury Region Vs… Waimakariri District Waimate District Canterbury Region 54    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend continues to increase slightly. The sales volume trend has been flat to slightly decreasing over the past year. The days to sell trend continues to ease slightly. The House Price Index has been fluctuating over the past two years with a relatively small percentage increase over the past 12 months as a result. Canterbury Region Median Price Past 5 Years 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Source: REINZ Canterbury Median Price 12 month MA Canterbury Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Source: REINZ 55    REINZ Monthly Property Report Canterbury Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Canterbury Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Canterbury DTS 12 month MA Canterbury Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 Source: REINZ 56    REINZ Monthly Property Report Canterbury HPI March 2019 Dunedin City Queenstown Lakes “The Otago market was very active in March where we saw days on the market going down (now at 27 compared to February’s 34) and prices increasing 21.6% on last year. Dunedin City achieved a record median price of $439,000 up from the previous record set in October 2018 of $433,000. First home buyers are finding the ongoing price rises are starting to test affordability thresholds.” “The Queenstown Lakes District saw an increase in both median prices (+14.8%) and sales volumes (+18.3%) when compared to the same time last year. Listings were down 18.7% for the area which created more competition for the buyers. There was an increase of first home buyers, while investor activity followed along from the previous month, which is an upswing compared to March 2017. Cash buyers were also more visible, and we see that buyers are taking advantage of better buying in the regions which will help the market track firmly going forward.” Liz Nidd REINZ Regional Commentator OTAGO Gail Hudson REINZ Regional Director REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price up 21.6% • Sales Count down 5.4% • Days to Sell decreased 1 day Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 7.0% • Seasonally adjusted median price up 6.0% • Sales Count up 4.9% • Seasonally adjusted sales count up 2.7% • Days to Sell decreased 7 days 57    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed increase in median price was greater than expected and the observed increase in sales count was a bit more than expected. The current Days to Sell of 27 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 35 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at nine weeks, one week less than in March 2018. March 2019 OTAG O R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES  DAYS TO SELL OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Central Otago District 500,000 570,000 460,000 43 38 35 Clutha District 230,000 277,500 215,000 17 23 16 439,000 420,000 376,000 207 210 259 Queenstown-Lakes District 975,000 880,000 855,000 99 78 82 Waitaki District 301,000 315,000 292,000 37 35 34 Otago Region 492,000 460,000 404,500 403 384 426 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 Central Otago District -12.3% 8.7% 13.2% 22.9% Clutha District -17.1% 7.0% -26.1% 6.3% Dunedin City 4.5% 16.8% -1.4% -20.1% Queenstown-Lakes District 10.8% 14.0% 26.9% 20.7% Waitaki District -4.4% 3.1% 5.7% 8.8% Otago Region 7.0% 21.6% 4.9% -5.4% Dunedin City R Vs… 58    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in the median price is increasing strongly. The trend in sales volume has been flat to decreasing over the past year. The trend in days to sell has been slightly easing over the past three months. The House Price Index for Otago has had moderately strong growth over the past year, despite a small decrease over the past month. Otago Region Median Price Past 5 Years 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Source: REINZ Otago Median Price 12 month MA Otago Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Source: REINZ 59    REINZ Monthly Property Report Otago Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Otago Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Otago DTS 12 month MA Otago Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 60    REINZ Monthly Property Report Otago HPI March 2019 “The Southland market continues to be buoyant as it achieved a new record median house price for the second month in a row. The new median house price is now at $300,000, which is a 25% year-on-year increase indicating how strong the market has performed for the last twelve months. There was a decline in rental interest, which is an indication that this segment in the market is slowing though the rest of the market continues to be steady. Open homes weren’t as well attended as in February, which could have been affected by the decrease of active investors. The investor engagement and activity has dropped around 50% compared to March 2017 due to the uncertainty of new rules and regulations.” Bindi Norwell REINZ CEO SOUTHLAND REGIONAL COMMENTARY Compared to March 2018 • Median Price increased 25.0% • Sales Count decreased 5.7% • Days to Sell increased 1 day Compared to February 2019 • Median Price up 4.5% • Seasonally adjusted median price up 3.0% • Sales Count up 9.9% • Seasonally adjusted sales count down 3.0% • Days to Sell decreased 13 days 61    REINZ Monthly Property Report Our seasonally adjusted results tell us that, compared to what we expect when moving from February to March, the observed increase in median price was a bit larger than expected and the observed increase in sales count was less than expected. The current Days to Sell of 27 days is less than the 10-year average for March which is 35 days. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 12 weeks, two weeks less than in March 2018. March 2019 S O U THL AN D R E GI O N T R E N D S PRICE R  VOLUMES  DAYS TO SELL OVERALL   RECORD MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE VOLUME SOLD Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Feb-19 Mar-18 Gore District 233,500 247,000 200,000 20 29 23 Invercargill City R 310,000 290,000 250,000 141 111 149 Southland District 323,000 339,000 230,000 38 41 39 Southland Region 300,000 287,000 240,000 199 181 211 Feb-19 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-18 -5.5% 16.8% -31.0% -13.0% 6.9% 24.0% 27.0% -5.4% Southland District -4.7% 40.4% -7.3% -2.6% Southland Region 4.5% 25.0% 9.9% -5.7% Vs… Gore District Invercargill City 62    REINZ Monthly Property Report Vs… GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is increasing and the sales count trend has been steady over the past 6 months. The days to sell trend has been improving strongly. The House Price Index for Southland bounced back from a bad result last month to hold the strongest one month, three months and 12 months movement of all the regions. Southland Region Median Price Past 5 Years 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Source: REINZ Southland Median Price 12 month MA Southland Region Sales Volumes Past 5 Years 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: REINZ 63    REINZ Monthly Property Report Southland Volumes 12 month MA March 2019 Southland Region Days To Sell Past 5 Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: REINZ Southland DTS 12 month MA Southland Region House Price Index Past 5 Years 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: REINZ 64    REINZ Monthly Property Report Southland HPI