MEASURES OF GROWTH2019 Performance Measures and Benchmarks to Achieve a Vibrant and Sustainable Economy for Maine 25 TH Administered by Table of Contents FUNDAMENTAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 1. Gross Domestic Product pg 3 Maine’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.9% from 2016 to 2017, from $54.6 to $55.6 billion. GDP growth in Maine trailed the national average of 2.2% and surpassed the New England rate of 1.4%. 2. Per Capita Personal Income pg 4 From 2016 to 2017, per capita income in Maine grew by 3.7% to $46,455. Income grew in Maine at nearly the same rate as the U.S. and New England averages and slightly better than the EPSCoR average growth of 3.0%. 3. Value Added per Worker pg 5 Value added per worker in Maine increased from $94,017 in 2016 to $96,729 in 2017. Worker productivity in Maine has been about 25% lower than the U.S. average for the past seven years. 4. Employment pg 6 Maine total employment exceeded the pre-recession level for the first time in 2017, and another 4,500 jobs were added in 2018 for a total of 628,500 jobs. 5. Poverty pg 7 Poverty in Maine dropped from 12.3% to 11.3% in 2017, below the pre-recession level of 12.2% in 2007. The national and New England poverty rates are still slightly above their pre-recession rates. ECONOMY Business Innovation 6. Research and Development Expenditures pg 9 In 2016, Maine’s total spending on R&D was approximately $483 million, down from $508 million in 2015 and $757 million in 2009, the high point of the past decade. R&D spending in Maine represents 0.8% of total GDP, which ranks 45th of the 50 states. 7. International Exports pg 10 After declining from 2016 to 2017, Maine exports increased by 4.2% from 2017 to 2018, while U.S. exports increased by 7.6%. 8. Broadband Connectivity pg 11 While 90% of Mainers are served by basic broadband— close to the national rate of 92%—only 30% have broadband subscriptions, compared with 53% nationally. About one in ten Mainers (11%) subscribe to highspeed broadband, compared with 44% nationwide. 9. Entrepreneurship g 12 p Maine jumped from a 50-state ranking of 37th on the early stage entrepreneurship index in 2016 to 6th in 2017. Maine’s strong 2017 performance was driven by the highest first-year survival rate in the country, 88%. Skilled and Educated Workers 10. Fourth Grade Reading Scores pg 13 In 2017, 36% of Maine 4th graders were proficient in reading, equal to the national average and trailing the New England average by seven points. 11. Eighth Grade Math Scores pg 14 The proportion of Maine 8th-graders proficient in math increased from 34% in 2007 to 40% in 2013 but has since fallen to 36% in 2017. Maine 8th grade math proficiency is two points above the national average but trails the New England rate by three percentage points. 12. Postsecondary Educational Attainment pg 15 Maine’s postsecondary educational attainment improved from 40% in 2016 to 42% in 2017, just above the national average of 41%, but well below the New England average of 48%. 13. Working Age Population pg 16 Maine’s working-age population percentage fell to 61% in 2017 from 61.5% in 2016 and 63.4% in 2010. In 2014, Maine’s proportion of working-age population fell below the U.S. average, which now stands at 61.8%. Business Climate 14. Cost of Doing Business pg 17 Maine’s cost of doing business index value has been stable at 110 since 2012. In 2017, Maine’s cost of doing business index ranked 8th highest in the U.S., up from 10th in 2015. 15. Cost of Health Care pg 18 In 2017, health care spending in Maine stood at 17.8% of all personal expenditures, above the 2007 rate of 16.3%, but at a stable level since 2015. Health care spending in New England dropped below the national average of 17.1%, and stood at 16.8%, a full percentage point below the Maine rate. PDF available for download at mdf.org i Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 Table of Contents Business Climate 16. Cost of Energy pg 19 The industrial price of electricity in Maine declined slightly from 9.2 to 9.06 cents per kilowatt hour from 2017 to 2018, while the average New England price increased from 12.54 to 12.96 cents and the U.S. average increased from 6.88 to 6.93 cents. 17. State and Local Tax Burden pg 20 State and local tax burden is higher in Maine than the New England average, and has remained around 12% since 2009. Maine ranks 3rd highest of the 50 states in taxes as a percent of income and 14th highest in taxes paid per capita, about $5,200 in 2016. 18. Transportation Infrastructure pg 21 In 2017, two-thirds (67%) of Maine’s most-traveled highway miles were graded A, B or C, and 33% received grades of D or F. This was an improvement over 2016 but indicates a small decline since 2012. Health and Wellness 22. Wellness and Prevention pg 26 Nearly two-thirds of Maine adults—65%—were overweight or obese in 2017. While Maine’s rate has grown slightly from 63% in 2007, it decreased in both 2016 and 2017, and is now two points below the national average of 67%. 23. Health Insurance Coverage pg 27 In 2017, 91.9% of Mainers had health insurance, slightly above national average of 91.3%. An estimated 106,000 people in Maine do not have health insurance coverage. 24. Food Security pg 28 14.4% of Maine households were food insecure in 2017, a substantial decline from 16.4% in 2016. Food insecurity in Maine is well above the U.S. (12.3%) and New England (11.4%) averages. COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENT Civic Assets Environmental Quality 19. Safety (NEW) pg 23 Maine’s crime rate in 2017, 16.3 per 1,000 residents, was 40% below the national rate of 27.5 and among the lowest of the 50 states. 20. Housing Affordability pg 24 Housing is more affordable in Maine than the national and Northeast averages. But after improving from 2007 to 2014, housing affordability in Maine has been declining slightly in each subsequent year. 21. Gender Income Disparity pg 25 After improving from 79% in 2014 and 2015 to 84% in 2016, women’s income as a percentage of men’s in Maine dropped to 82% in 2017. Exceptional Performance Very high national standing and/or established trend toward significant improvement. Needs Attention Very low national standing and/or established trend toward significant decline. The indicator may show improvement but is still viewed as needing attention. 25. Air Quality pg 30 In 2018, there were 29 moderate air quality days and 3 days were rated unhealthy for sensitive groups, the lowest figures to date. 26. Water Quality pg 31 Since 2006, Maine’s water quality has remained steady and well above national averages, with 95% of rivers and streams and 91% of lakes achieving category 1 or 2 (“good”) in 2016. 27. Sustainable Forest Lands pg 32 Since 2010, Maine has maintained net forest growth to removals ratios slightly in favor of growth over harvest. The growth to harvest ratio rose slightly from 1.43 in 2016 to 1.47 in 2017. Movement toward the benchmark since the last available data. No significant movement relative to the benchmark since the last available data. Movement away from the benchmark since the last available data. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 ii AT THE HEART OF IT ALL, IT’S ABOUT OUR PEOPLE. Achieving our vision requires a vibrant and sustainable economy supported by vital communities and a healthy environment. + + VISION: A HIGH QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL MAINE PEOPLE We are pleased to present the 2019 Measures of Growth Report. The report offers a nonpartisan, data-based snapshot of where Maine sits relative to other states and the U.S. as a whole. It is a resource for policy and decision makers at all levels, helping them to focus their efforts and understand the connections between and among the major issues affecting Maine’s economy and the well-being of Maine people. This year, it is also an urgent call to action. It is not enough only to measure our standing; it is time for Maine to develop a strategy for long-term economic growth and a high quality of life for Maine people. the development and recommendation of goals, benchmarks, and alternative strategies for a sustainable Maine economy. We believe the time is now for Maine to develop such a strategy. According to a recent survey, 90% of business leaders and Maine people think a statewide, long-range economic strategy is very or extremely important. We look forward to working with the Governor, the Legislature, and business and community leaders across Maine on this critical effort. In total, the report tracks 27 indicators that represent Maine’s assets, including the health of our environment and the relative safety of our communities, and areas of persistent challenge, including workforce development, investment in research and development to support innovation, maintaining our transportation infrastructure, and health care costs. KEY TO SYMBOLS Gold Stars & Red Flags Gold Stars and Red Flags are determined by consensus of the Growth Council based on consideration of the data and the experienced perspective of Council members. The general criteria are: Specifically, the 2019 report assigns Gold Stars signifying exceptional performance to: Exceptional Performance Very high national standing and/or established trend toward significant improvement. • Safety • Air Quality • Water Quality • Sustainable Forest Lands Needs Attention Very low national standing and/or established trend toward significant decline. The indicator may show improvement but is still viewed as needing attention. It assigns Red Flags highlighting areas in need of particular attention to: • • • • • Research and Development Expenditures Fourth Grade Reading and Eighth Grade Math Scores Working Age Population Cost of Health Care Transportation Infrastructure Since 1993, the Maine Economic Growth Council has served as an unbiased analyst and advisor of Maine’s economic health and status. They have produced the annual Measures of Growth Report as a way of tracking Maine’s progress. The Council is also charged through state statute to develop, maintain, and evaluate a long-term economic plan for the State, including Progress Symbols Progress Symbols reflect movement from year to year and/or recent trends toward or away from the benchmarks established by the Council. No grade may be assigned to new indicators, indicators with a new data set, or indicators for which updated data is not available. The general criteria for grades are: Movement toward the benchmark since the last available data. No significant movement relative to the benchmark since the last available data. Movement away from the benchmark since the last available data. 2 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 FUNDAMENTAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS This report is about the status of Maine’s economy and how it impacts the lives and livelihood of Maine’s people. Each indicator represents a key area the Growth Council believes influences our economy, environment, and community. These are the leverage points which will help determine the direction of our economy and, ultimately, our quality of life in the years ahead. There are also a few fundamental performance indicators that speak to the overall health of Maine’s economy as seen from the 30,000 foot level. They are, in a sense, the culmination of what we collectively do in many areas and are often influenced by forces beyond our borders. These high-level indicators include: Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita Personal Income, Value Added per Worker, Employment, and Poverty. Benchmark: The growth of Maine’s GDP will outpace that of New England and the U.S. 1 - Gross Domestic Product Maine’s gross domestic product (GDP) provides a sense of our overall economic performance. GDP is comprised of two types of goods and services: 1) those produced for sale in the market, and 2) nonmarket products like government-provided defense equipment or services provided by non-profit institutions to households. Maine’s GDP grew by 1.9% from 2016 to 2017, from $54.6 billion to $55.6 billion. GDP growth in Maine trailed the national average of 2.2% and surpassed the New England rate of 1.4%. Over the past decade, Maine’s GDP grew by 3%, while the New England average grew by 9% and the U.S. average grew by 16%. Real Estate, Government, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Manufacturing together made up onehalf of Maine’s GDP in 2017. Fig 1a: Maine’s Real Gross Domestic Product By Major Industry Sector 2017 Industry Sector GDP Millions of Dollars % of Total % Change 2016-17 Real Estate $8,027 14% 1.9% Government $7,520 14% 1.9% Health Care and Social Assistance $6,668 12% 1.8% Manufacturing $5,294 10% 2.9% Retail Trade $4,884 9% 4.5% Wholesale Trade $3,230 6% -0.1% Prof., Scientific & Technical Services $3,161 6% 4.8% Finance and Insurance $3,049 5% 0.3% Accommodation & Food Services $2,242 4% 1.9% Construction $1,776 3% 0.2% Fig 1b: Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate 2009-2017 New England U.S. Maine 3% 2% 1% 0 -1% -2% -3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 3 Benchmark: Maine’s per capita personal income will exceed the average of EPSCoR1 states by 2020. 2 - Per Capita Personal Income Per capita personal income is total personal income divided by total midyear population. Personal income reflects job quality, worker productivity, population characteristics, and the makeup of our economy; it is a primary driver of economic prosperity and quality of life. growth has contributed more to total personal income growth in Maine than growth in transfer receipts and dividends, interest, and rent combined. Maine’s per-capita personal income of $46,455 in 2017 ranks 31st of the 50 states, well below the other New England states and 1% below the EPSCoR average of $46,786. In Maine, 59% of total personal income comes from earnings, 22% comes from transfer receipts (government benefits like Social Security, unemployment, welfare, and veteran’s benefits), and 19% comes from dividends, interest, and rent. Nationally, 63% of personal income is earnings, 17% is from transfer receipts, and 20% is from dividends, interest, and rent. Fig 2b: 2017 Personal Income and National Rank, New England States From 2016 to 2017, per capita income in Maine grew by 3.7%, nearly the same rate as the U.S. and New England averages and slightly better than the EPSCoR average growth of 3.0%. For the past three years, net earnings Income Rank United States $51,640 N/A New England $64,303 N/A EPSCoR $46,786 N/A Connecticut $71,823 2 Massachusetts $67,630 3 New Hampshire $59,668 8 Rhode Island $52,786 18 Vermont $52,225 20 Maine $46,455 31 Fig 2a: Per Capita Personal Income 2007-2017 U.S. EPSCoR New England Maine $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 Maine is one of 23 states in EPSCoR, the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research, a federal program directed at states that have historically received lesser amounts of research and development funding. EPSCoR states develop partnerships between their higher education institutions, industry, government, and others to improve their R&D infrastructure, capacity, and national competitiveness. 4 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 Benchmark: Maine’s value added per worker will improve to within 15% of the U.S. average by 2020. 3 - Value Added per Worker This indicator measures worker productivity by dividing gross domestic product by the total number of part- and full-time workers. Maine has a relatively high proportion of part-time workers, which lowers our value added per worker. Worker productivity is affected by education and skill levels, business costs, infrastructure, and major industries in a region’s economy. added per worker increased from $77,343 in 2007 and $94,017 in 2016 to $96,729 in 2017, the lowest of the New England states and well below the EPSCoR states average. Worker productivity in Maine has been about 25% lower than the U.S. average for the past seven years. From 2016 to 2017, Maine improved from 50th to 46th among the 50 states in value added per worker. Worker productivity in Maine has steadily increased, but it is among the lowest of the 50 states. Our value Fig 3: Value Added per Worker 2007-2017 EPSCoR MA ME RI VT NH U.S. CT $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 5 Benchmark: The total number of jobs in Maine will increase each year 4 - Employment This measure tracks annual growth in total non-farm wage and salary employment by sector in Maine. Employment is a key driver of income and economic opportunity and reflects economic health and growth. While total job growth is important, it is useful to also identify the sectors that add the greatest value and quality of life for Maine people. Fig 4b: Employment in Maine by Selected Sectors 2018 Maine total employment exceeded the pre-recession level for the first time in 2017, and another 4,500 jobs were added in 2018 for a total of 628,500 jobs. The sector with the largest employment increase in 2018 was professional and business services, followed by manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality. Health care & social assistance (17%) and government (16%) are the sectors with the most jobs in Maine. Fig 4c: Total Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment, 2008-2018 Thousands 630 610 Employment % of Total Health Care and Social Assistance 105,100 16.7% Government 100,100 15.9% Retail Trade 81,100 12.9% Professional and Business Services 69,300 11.0% Leisure & Hospitality 68,300 10.9% Manufacturing 52,000 8.3% Financial Activities 31,900 5.1% Construction 28,900 4.6% Educational Services 22,200 3.5% Other Services 22,200 3.5% Wholesale Trade 19,500 3.1% Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 18,600 3.0% Information 7,300 1.2% Mining & Logging 2,200 0.4% 590 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Fig 4a: Employment Growth in Maine By Selected Sectors, 2017-2018 1,900 2,000 900 Health Care and Social Assistance Government 100 200 400 Other Services 100 400 Financial Activities 100 Educational Services 0 Wholesale Trade -100 Mining & Lodging 0 -200 -200 Information 1,000 500 600 Professional and Business Services Manufacturing Construction Leisure and Hospitality Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities -2,000 Retail Trade -1,000 Source: Maine Department of Labor, Center for Workforce Research and Information 6 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 Benchmark: Maine’s poverty rate will decline and remain below the U.S. rate through 2020 5 - Poverty County Poverty Rate Coastal Counties York Rim Counties Maine’s poverty rate has consistently been below the U.S. average and above the New England average. Poverty in Maine dropped from 12.3% to 11.3% in 2017, below the pre-recession level of 12.2% in 2007. The national and New England poverty rates are still slightly above their pre-recession rates. In Maine’s counties, poverty rates range from 8% in York to 21% in Washington County; poverty has declined since 2014 in all counties except Washington. Fig 5b: Poverty Rate By Maine County 2017 Central Counties The poverty rate reflects Maine’s economic performance, and reducing poverty is key to improving economic growth and quality of life. The federal poverty threshold for 2017 was $12,060 for a single-person household and $24,600 for a family of four. 7.8% Cumberland 8.1% Sagadahoc 9.7% Knox 10.7% Hancock 11.0% Lincoln 11.4% Waldo 13.1% Androscoggin 12.4% Kennebec 12.4% Penobscot 14.3% Oxford 13.5% Franklin 13.7% Aroostook 14.4% Piscataquis 15.5% Somerset 15.9% Washington 21.1% Fig 5a: Poverty Rate, 2007-2017 New England U.S. Maine 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 7 IN KEEPING WITH THE ENTREPRENEURIAI. SPIRIT. ECONOMY 6 - Research and Development Expenditures Maine Trails Badly in R&D Investment TOTAL PERCENTAGE OF GDP SPENT TOWARD R&D IN 2016 5% 4.4% Not-for-Profit University & College Industry 4% 3% BENCHMARK FOR 2020 2% 2.7% * Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research 1.6% 0.8% 1% 0% Maine EPSCoR* New England U.S. Research and development (R&D) spending is an indicator of the level of innovation in an economy, the ultimate driver of most economic growth. Maine has robust policies in place to evaluate R&D investments, ensure healthy competition, and promote collaboration between industry, non-profits, and the University System, but we are not making regular, sustained investments in R&D. In 2016, Maine’s total spending on R&D was approximately $483 million, down from $508 million in 2015 and $757 million in 2009, the high point of the past decade. R&D spending in Maine represents 0.8% of total GDP, which ranks 45th of the 50 states and is one-half of the 1.6% EPSCoR2 states average. Maine particularly lags other states in private sector and university R&D investments relative to GDP, while Maine’s non-profit sector contributes a higher proportion of total R&D investment compared with other states. Total R&D Spending as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product 2007 - 2016 6% U.S. 5% NEW ENGLAND 4% EPSCoR 3% MAINE 2% 1% 0% 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Maine is one of 23 states in EPSCoR, the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research, a federal program directed at states that have historically received lesser amounts of research and development funding. EPSCoR states develop partnerships between their higher education institutions, industry, government, and others to improve their R&D infrastructure, capacity, and national competitiveness. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 9 Benchmark: Maine’s total spending on research and development will reach 3% of the state’s total gross domestic product by 2020 Source: Camoin Associates, National Science Foundation Maine Exports Increase at Lower Rate than U.S. 7 - International Exports INTERNATIONAL EXPORTS 2007-2018 Benchmark:. Maine’s international exports will grow at a pace faster than U.S. international exports 125 INDEX POINTS Source: Maine International Trade Center 150 100 75 50 U.S. AVERAGE MAINE 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 This indicator tracks Maine and U.S. exports indexed to 2007. International trade is a vital part of the state’s economic performance. Foreign countries are important markets, providing growth opportunities for Maine goods and services. In 2018, Maine companies exported more than $2.8 billion in goods and services. After declining from 2016 to 2017, Maine exports increased by 4.2% from 2017 to 2018, while U.S. exports increased by 7.6%. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 International sales of seafood, Maine’s largest export commodity, grew by nearly 17% from 2017 to 2018. Among other top exports, fuel, aircraft parts, and forest products also saw growth in 2018, while electric machinery exports decreased slightly. Maine’s top two trading partners, Canada and China, both imposed new tariffs in the middle of 2018. All of Maine’s export growth occurred in the first half of the year. 10 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 8 - Broadband Connectivity Broadband Access in Maine Needs Improvement 92% U.S. MAINE 53% 75% 30% 50% 44% 100% 90% BROADBAND SERVICE AND SUBSCRIPTION RATES, 2016 11% 25% 0% SERVED BY BASIC BROADBAND SUBSCRIBING TO BASIC BROADBAND This measure tracks the proportion of Maine’s population served by basic broadband (25 Mbps download/3 Mbps upload), and the proportions subscribing to basic and high-speed (50 Mbps download/5 Mbps upload) broadband internet service.3 Broadband access is vital to participation in the global economy and modern society. In large, rural states like Maine, it is both particularly important and challenging; broadband access bridges distances yet providing it in remote areas is costly. While 90% of Mainers are served by basic broadband— close to the national rate of 92%—only 30% have broadband subscriptions, compared with 53% nationally. About one in ten Mainers (11%) subscribe to high-speed broadband, compared with 44% nationwide. These disparities suggest that broadband service, even where available, is inaccessible for many Mainers. Statewide, 97% of urban residents and 86% of rural residents are served by basic broadband. Fewer than half of Franklin and Piscataquis County residents and fewer than three-quarters of Somerset and Waldo County residents are served by basic broadband. (Subscription rates are not available at the county level.) 3 SUBSCRIBING TO HIGH-SPEED BROADBAND Source: Federal Communications Commission Basic Broadband Service by County, 2016 Coastal Counties Percent Waldo 68% Hancock 80% Sagadahoc 93% Lincoln 94% Knox 97% York 99% Cumberland 99% Central Counties Percent Penobscot 86% Kennebec 99% Androscoggin 100% Rim Counties Benchmark: Maine will meet or exceed the U.S. percentage of households with a basic broadband internet subscription through 2020 Percent Piscataquis 41% Franklin 46% Somerset 60% Aroostook 77% Washington 77% Oxford 88% This year we replaced the previous measure of broadband connectivity, U.S. Census data on broadband subscription rates, with Federal Communications Commission data on broadband service and subscription rates. The new data source better reflects Mainer’s access to both basic and high-speed broadband internet service. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 11 Maine Excels in Startup Early Survival Rate 9 - Entrepreneurship EARLY-STAGE ENTREPRENEURSHIP INDEX, 2007-2017 Benchmark:. Maine will meet or exceed the U.S. early-stage entrepreneurship index through 2020 1.8 U.S. 1.35 MAINE 0.9 0.45 0 -0.45 Source: Camoin Associates, Kauffman Foundation -0.9 -1.35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 This measure presents an index4 made up of four indicators of early-stage entrepreneurship: 1) the rate of new entrepreneurs, 2) the opportunity share of new entrepreneurs, 3) startup early job creation, and 4) startup early survival rate. The creation of new businesses is a vital economic activity. Entrepreneurship contributes to innovation, creates jobs, and builds wealth. Ensuring that Mainers have the skills to take advantage of opportunities in the economy, access to capital, supports for starting and scaling businesses, and connections to human capital 4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 will help to sustain our recent improvement in earlystage entrepreneurship. Maine jumped from a 50-state ranking of 37th on the index in 2016 to 6th in 2017. Maine’s strong 2017 performance was driven by the highest first-year survival rate in the country, 88%. Maine was 18th among the 50 states in the rate of new entrepreneurs, 28th in startup job creation, and 42nd in opportunity share of new entrepreneurs. This year the Kauffman Foundation replaced the previously used indicator, Start-up Activity, with a new Early-Stage Entrepreneurship Index with four components: rate of entrepreneurs measures the proportion of the adult population that became entrepreneurs, including incorporated and unincorporated businesses with or without employees. Opportunity share of new entrepreneurs is the proportion who were not unemployed before starting their business—a proxy indicator of starting a business because of market opportunity rather than out of necessity. Startup early job creation measures total employment generated by startups in their first year. Startup early survival rate is the percentage of new establishments that survive their first year of operation. 12 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 10 - Fourth Grade Reading Scores Early Childhood Development Vital to Future Success for Maine 4th GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT OR ABOVE 2007-2017 100% U.S. 75% 31% 40% 35% 31% 41% 36% 32% 41% 32% 34% 42% 37% 35% 43% 36% 36% 43% 36% 50% NEW ENGLAND 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 MAINE 25% 0% 4th GRADERS SCORING ABOVE 4 th GRADERS SCORINGPROFICIENT PROFICIENT OR OR ABOVE IN 20172007-2017 NEW ENGLAND U.S. MAINE 100%grade reading proficiency is defined as Fourth and are an indicator of future outcomes like U.S. competency over challenging subject matter, educational attainment, employment, and earnings. application to real-world problems, and appropriate 75% NEW ENGLAND The proportion of Maine 4th graders meeting NAEP’s analytical skills. The National Assessment of MAINE proficiency benchmark in reading has not improved Educational Progress (NAEP) tests representative 50% over the past decade. In 2017, 36% of Maine 4th graders samples of 4th- and 8th- graders every other year to were proficient in reading, equal to the national average allow national and state comparisons. Fourth grade 25% and trailing the New England average by seven points. reading scores reflect early childhood development 32% 41% 32% 34% 42% 37% 35% 43% 36% 36% 43% 36% 36% 31% 41% 36% 43% 31% 40% 35% 36% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 0% 4 th GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT OR ABOVE IN 2017 U.S. NEW ENGLAND MAINE 36% 43% 36% Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 13 Benchmark:. The percentage of Maine students scoring proficient and above on NAEP will reach 50% by 2020 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 11 - Eighth Grade Math Scores 100% U.S. NEW ENGLAND 32% 40% 35% 34% 39% 36% 40% 34% 43% 42% 39% 34% 35% 31% 38% 34% 50% 32% 40% 75% 2015 2017 MAINE 25% 0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 8th GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT OR ABOVE IN 2017 NEW ENGLAND OR ABOVE 2007-2017 MAINE U.S. 8 GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT Eighth grade math proficiency is defined as competency The proportion of Maine 8th-graders meeting the NAEP over challenging subject matter, application to realmath proficiency benchmark increased from 34% in 100% world problems, and appropriate analytical skills. 2007 to 40% in 2013 but has since fallen toU.S. 36% in 2017. The National Assessment of Educational Progress Maine 8th grade math proficiency is two points above NEW ENGLAND 75% (NAEP) tests representative samples of 4th- and the national average but trails the New England rate by MAINE 8th- graders every other year to allow national three percentage points. 50% and state comparisons. Eighth grade math scores reflect foundational skills and indicate that students 25% are on track for college and career readiness. th 32% 40% 35% 34% 39% 36% 36% 34% 43% 40% 39% 42% 34% 39% 35% 34% 32% 40% Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 8th GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT OR ABOVE 2007-2017 31% 38% 34% Benchmark: The percentage of Maine students scoring proficient and above on NAEP will reach 50% by 2020 Improvement Needed to Help Maine Students and Economy 2013 2015 2017 0% 2007 2009 2011 8th GRADERS SCORING PROFICIENT OR ABOVE IN 2017 U.S. NEW ENGLAND MAINE 34% 39% 36% 14 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 12 - Postsecondary Educational Attainment Improving Postsecondary Educational Attainment a Top Priority POSTSECONDARY DEGREE ATTAINMENT AMONG RESIDENTS 25 AND OVER 2007-2017 60% U.S. NEW ENGLAND 50% MAINE 40% 30% 20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 This indicator presents the proportion of adults that hold an associate’s, bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree. Education contributes to economic growth through increased workforce participation, employment, earnings, productivity, and tax revenue. Education prepares people to meet the current and future needs of employers and to create opportunities for themselves and others. Postsecondary degree attainment in Maine has been at or just above the national average—but has trailed the New England average—since 2007. Maine’s postsecondary attainment improved from 40% in 2016 to 42% in 2017, just above the national average of 41%, but well below the New England average of 48%. Non-degree pathways to success in today’s economy include credentials like professional certifications, licensures, digital badging, and service in the armed forces. Apprenticeships and internships offer 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 workplace experiences and skills instruction while providing connections to employers. The Lumina Foundation estimates that an additional 2% of Maine adults without postsecondary degrees hold credentials with value in the labor market, compared with a New England average of 2.5% and a national average of 5%. Adult Degree Attainment Rates, 2017 Associate’s Maine Bachelor’s High-value Graduate and postsecondary Professional credential only* 10.3% 19.9% 12.1% 2.0% New England 8.2% 22.5% 17.2% 2.5% United States 8.5% 19.7% 12.3% 5.2% * Lumina Foundation, A Stronger Nation Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 15 Benchmark: The percentage of Maine residents 25 and over with a postsecondary degree will improve to at least the New England average by 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 13 - Working Age Population 65% U.S. 64% MAINE 63% 62% 61% 60% 2011 2012 2013 2014 This measure tracks the proportion of total population that is of traditional working age (18 to 64). A declining working age population has a negative impact on economic growth. A skilled and educated workforce is a key element of a healthy economy. Since 2011, the proportion and number of working-age people in Maine have been steadily declining. Maine’s working-age population percentage fell to 61% in 2017 from 61.5% in 2016 and 63.4% in 2010. In 2014, Maine’s proportion of working-age population fell below the U.S. average, which now stands at 61.8%. There were 814,964 working-age Mainers in 2017, down from 842,289 in 2010. Population change varies across the state; only Cumberland saw an increase in workingage population from 2010 to 2017, and Aroostook and Piscataquis Counties saw working-age population declines of 10%. Factors that exacerbate the declining working-age share of the population include Maine’s low birth rate, decreasing labor force participation rates, and migration trends. • Natural change is the difference between births and deaths in a population. Maine’s birth rate is 9.2 births per 1,000 population, more than 20% lower than the national average of 11.8 births. Deaths of Maine residents have outnumbered births every year since 2013. Maine’s median age of 44.7 years is the oldest among the 50 states. • The unemployment rate in Maine has been below 4% for a record three years, and lower than the national average since 2009. At the same time, labor force participation rates in Maine and the U.S. have been declining—both stood at about 63% at the end of 2018. 2015 2016 2017 • From 2010 to 2015, Maine did not gain any residents from net migration, but in 2017, the state saw positive net migration of about 7,000 working-age people, roughly 1% of the previous population. Working-Age Population by County County Coastal Counties 2010 Central Counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates WORKING AGE POPULATION (18 TO 64) 2010-2017 Rim Counties Benchmark:. The percentage of Maine residents age 18 to 64 will remain steady and improve to the U.S. percentage through 2020 Declining Working Age Population a Major Challenge for Maine’s Economy Number % Change, 2010-2017 Cumberland 185,043 1% York 125,014 0% Hancock 32,095 -7% Waldo 23,678 -3% Knox 22,940 -6% Sagadahoc 21,042 -4% Lincoln 19,240 -6% Penobscot 96,945 -4% Kennebec 74,807 -4% Androscoggin 65,686 -4% Aroostook 39,482 -10% Oxford 34,702 -3% Somerset 30,522 -6% Franklin 18,193 -7% Washington 18,116 -9% Piscataquis 9,554 -10% 817,059 -3% Maine 16 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 14 - Cost of Doing Business Maine Stable in Recent Years but Remains Above National and Regional Averages COST OF DOING BUSINESS, 2007-2017 MOODY’S ANALYTICS INDEX POINTS 120 NORTHEAST WEST MIDWEST SOUTH MAINE 110 U.S. Average - 100 Index Points 100 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Moody’s Analytics cost of doing business index is a weighted scale of labor costs (wages, benefits, and productivity), commercial and industrial electricity costs, and state and local tax burden. Relative costs of doing business are a critical factor in business competitiveness. Costs of doing business are an important consideration for many businesses in location decisions. Maine’s cost of doing business index value was 112 in 2007, rose to a high of 114 in 2008-2009, and has been stable at 110 since 2012. In 2017, Maine’s cost of doing business index ranked 8th highest in the U.S. While Maine’s cost of doing business is just below average for New England, Maine ranks in the top 11 states for all three components in the index. Of the three cost elements, Maine’s tax burden ranks 3rd highest among the 50 states, labor costs rank 8th, and energy costs rank 11th highest. The Northeast has much higher 2014 2015 2017 2016 business costs than the other three regions of the country, and Maine’s cost of doing business has been above the Northeast average for the past three years. New England State Ranks: Business Costs (1 is highest cost) Overall Rank Unit Labor Rank Cost of Energy Rank Tax Burden Rank MA 2 1 5 30 VT 6 14 8 7 NH 7 10 7 48 ME 8 8 11 3 CT 9 29 3 19 RI 10 22 4 9 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 17 Benchmark: Maine’s cost of business will decline to the U.S. average by 2020 Source: Moody’s Analytics Growing Health Care Costs a Continuing Challenge for Maine 15 - Cost of Health Care Benchmark:. Maine’s health care spending as a percentage of total personal expenditures will decline to the New England average by 2020 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PERSONAL EXPENDITURES 2007-2017 U.S. 20% NEW ENGLAND MAINE 15% 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PERSONAL EXPENDITURES 2007-2017 U.S. AVERAGE 20% NEW ENGLAND HEALTH CARE 17.1% EXPENDITURES AS This measure tracks PERCENTAGE OF the percentage of total personal expenditures that is devoted TOTAL PERSONAL 82.9% to health 83.2% care. Maine people and businesses consistently EXPENDITURES 2017 identify 15% the high cost of health care as a major concern. The rate of growth in health care spending in the U.S. has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, and population growth, posing a challenge for government, business, and consumer budgets. Health care spending diverts money 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 U.S. AVERAGE HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PERSONAL EXPENDITURES 2017 2012 2013 82.9% NEW ENGLAND 17.8% HEALTH CARE away from potential investments in education, MAINE OTHER EXPENDITURES infrastructure, 82.2% and research and development. In 2017, health care spending in Maine stood at 17.8% of all personal expenditures, above the 2007 rate of 16.3%, but at a stable level since 2015. Health care spending in New England dropped below the national average of 17.1%, and in 2017 it stood at 16.8%, a full percentage point below the Maine rate. 2014 2015 2016 2017 MAINE 16.8% 83.2% U.S. 16.8% NEW ENGLAND 17.1% MAINE 17.8% 82.2% 18 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 HEALTH CARE OTHER EXPENDITURES 16 - Cost of Energy High Electricity Prices a Concern for Maine INDUSTRIAL RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2007-2018 Cents per Kilowatt Hour 20 U.S. NEW ENGLAND MAINE 15 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 10 5 0 Benchmark: The cost of electricity in Maine will decline to the U.S. average by 2020 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 INDUSTRIAL RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2007-2018 20 INDUSTRIAL RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE TREND 2007-2018 U.S. NEW ENGLAND This measure average industrial retail electricity The industrial price of electricity in Maine declined 15 6.4 tracks 12.7 14.1 6.7 11.8 8.0 6.9 13.0 9.1 MAINE prices. The price of electricity is a significant cost for slightly from 9.2 to 9.06 cents per kilowatt hour from businesses. In Maine’s energy-intensive economy, 2017 to 2018, while the average New England price 10change a small of electricity can have from 12.54 toU.S. 12.96 cents the U.S. U.S. in the NE priceME U.S. a NE increased ME NE and ME big impact. Maine companies compete with those in average increased from 6.88 to 6.93 cents. Industrial Canadian provinces, where government-subsidized electricity in Maine now costs about 40% less than the 5 electricity generation results in lower costs. New England average and about 30% more than the national average. 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cents per Kilowatt Hour 2007 2012 2018 INDUSTRIAL RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE TREND 2007-2018 2007 2012 2018 6.4 12.7 14.1 6.7 11.8 8.0 6.9 13.0 9.1 U.S. NE ME U.S. NE ME U.S. NE ME Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 19 17 - State and Local Tax Burden Benchmark:. Maine’s tax burden will decline and move toward the New England average each year through 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Maine’s Tax Burden Holds Steady, Remains Above New England Average STATE AND LOCAL TAXES AS A PERCENT OF INCOME 2009-2016 15% U.S. NEW ENGLAND MAINE 10% 5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 STATE AND LOCAL TAXES AS A PERCENT OF INCOME IN 2016 NEWpersonal ENGLANDincome paid in state The percentage of total and local taxes (property, sales, income, corporate, motor vehicle, and other taxes) is our tax burden measure. While taxes impose on individuals andA STATE ANDcosts LOCAL TAXES AS businesses, they generate revenue for public services and 15% investments. This measure compares tax levels and ability to pay; it can be reduced by lowering tax rates and by increasing income. 10.5% State and local tax burden is higher in Maine than the New England average, and has remained around 10%12% since 2009. Maine ranks 3rd highest of the 50 states in state and local taxes as a percent of income (12.2%) and 14th highest in taxes paid per capita, about $5,200 in 2016. 5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 New England StateMAINE and Local Taxes 2016 (1 is highest) 12.2% % of Income Rank Per Capita PERCENT OF INCOME 2009-2016 U.S. 10.3% N/A $4,946 10.5% N/A NE 10.5% N/A $5,863 CT 10.6% 14 $7,220 ME 12.2% 3 $5,206 MA 10.4% 17 $6,469 NH 8.9% 41 $4,818 RI 11.2% 7 $5,562 12 VT 12.0% 4 $5,904 10 2014 2015 2016 STATE AND LOCAL TAXES AS A PERCENT OF INCOME IN 2016 NEW ENGLAND Rank MAINE 12.2% 20 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 U.S. N/A 2 NEW ENGLAND MAINE 14 5 19 18 - Transportation Infrastructure Significant Investment Needed to Meet Transportation Needs CUSTOMER SERVICE LEVELS FOR HIGHWAY CORRIDOR PRIORITY 1 1500 ABC Miles 1250 DF Miles 2022 Goal MILES 1000 750 500 250 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Highway corridors in Maine are prioritized into six levels by traffic volume. The Maine Department of Transportation uses customer-focused engineering measures to track highway safety, condition, and serviceability, and grades them from A (highest) to F (lowest). This measure shows customer service levels for Priority 1 roads—the most-traveled roads—from 2012 to 2017. Maine’s transportation network connects us to each other and to the world. Our roadways carry the 2022 clear majority of passengers and freight. Poor road conditions can lead to personal injury, property damage, and extended commute times. In 2017, 940 miles or 67% of Priority 1 highways were graded A, B or C, and 459 miles (33%) received grades of D or F. This was an improvement over 2016 but indicates a small decline since 2012 in the proportion of Maine highways receiving top grades. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 21 Benchmark: All highway corridor Priority 1 miles will reach customer service levels A, B, or C by 2022 Source: Maine Department of Transportation ?COMMUNITY LIVING, WORKING AND MOVING FORWARD, TOGETHER. Maine’s Reported Crime Rates are Among the Lowest in the Country 19 - Safety REPORTED CRIME RATES PER 1,000 PEOPLE, 2008 - 2017 U.S. 50 MAINE 40 Source: Maine Department of Public Safety, Maine State Police; Federal Bureau of Investigation 30 20 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Crime rates are our measure of physical safety, an important aspect of quality of life. The crime rate reflects reported crime and is not an exhaustive measure of all crime that occurs. Crime is costly to communities because it depresses property values, discourages investment, and increases insurance premiums. The crime rate includes data on reported larceny, burglary, aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, rape, robbery, arson, and murder. 5 Benchmark: Maine’s crime rate will remain 33% or more below the U.S. rate through 20205 2014 2015 2016 2017 Maine’s crime rate in 2017, 16.3 per 1,000 residents, was 40% below the national rate of 27.5 and among the lowest of the 50 states. Property crime in Maine has dropped by nearly 40% since 2008, to 15 occurrences per 1,000 residents, compared to nearly 24 nationwide. Violent crime in Maine stands at 1.2 occurrences per 1,000 residents compared with a national average of 3.9. Safety is a new measure this year, added to provide a fuller picture of Maine’s quality of life. The benchmark is the positive difference from the national average in the eight lowest-crime states (including Maine) in 2017. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 23 Housing Affordability an Advantage for Maine but Remains below Benchmark 20 - Housing Affordability 1.5 U.S. AVERAGE NORTHEAST MAINE 1.25 A rating of 1 or above is considered affordable. 1 .75 .5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 HOUSE COST AVERAGE 2014 2015 2016 HOMEOWNER INCOME Central Counties Housing is more affordable in Maine than in the United States or the Northeast region. But after improving from 2007 to 2014, housing affordability in Maine has been declining slightly in each subsequent year. In 2017, homeownership costs met or exceeded the affordability threshold of 1.0 in nine of Maine’s 16 counties, but rental housing was not affordable in any county. Coastal Counties The housing affordability index compares $223,900 rental and $55,775 U.S. homeownership costs with median incomes, weighting $62,168 Northeast for the proportions of owner and $272,600 renter households. An index rating of 1.0 or higher indicates affordability. $176,000 $50,703 Maine Regions without affordable housing are at a competitive disadvantage in attracting and retaining workers. Affordable housing has broad positive impacts on health outcomes and childhood development, which benefit individuals and communities. Rim Counties Source: MaineHousing HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 2009-2017 AVERAGES FOR 2015 Benchmark: Maine’s housing affordability index will reach and maintain a level around one through 2020 2017 RENT AVERAGE RENTER’S INCOME Housing$959 Affordability Index 2017 $35,863 (an index value of 1.0 or higher is considered affordable) County $1,087 $37,323 Rental Homeownership Cumberland $792 .82 $27,376 .88 York .83 .85 Hancock .85 .72 Lincoln .92 .96 Waldo .92 .68 Sagadahoc .93 .86 Knox .96 .89 1.08 .70 Penobscot Androscoggin 1.11 .74 Kennebec 1.12 .79 Oxford 1.03 .71 Washington 1.18 .69 Franklin 1.20 .63 Somerset 1.35 .67 Piscataquis 1.39 .60 Aroostook 1.51 .78 .93 .79 Maine 24 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 21 - Gender Income Disparity Gender Income Gap Continues to Hinder Maine’s Economy WOMEN’S INCOME AS A PERCENTAGE OF MEN’S 2009-2017 100% NEW ENGLAND 90% U.S. MAINE 80% 70% 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey WOMEN’S INCOME AS A PERCENTAGE OF MEN’S 2009-2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100% AVERAGE INCOME GAP IN 2017 NEW U.S. AVERAGE MAINE ENGLAND This measure compares median annual incomes of After improving from 79% in 2014 and 2015 to 84% in 90% U.S. men and women full-time, full-year.GAP While 2016, women’s incomeWOMEN as a percentage ofGAP men’s in MEN workingWOMEN MEN MAINE differences in occupations and motherhood are Maine dropped to 82% in 2017. The gender income $51,421 $41,512 -$9,909 $49,432 $40,597 -$8,835 contributors to the gender wage gap, much of the disparity in New England and the United States are 80% is not explained by these factors. disparity comparable to Maine’s. 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVERAGE INCOME GAP IN 2017 U.S. AVERAGE Benchmark:. Maine’s median annual income for women will improve to 100% of men’s median annual income by 2020 MAINE MEN WOMEN GAP MEN WOMEN GAP $51,421 $41,512 -$9,909 $49,432 $40,597 -$8,835 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 25 22 - Wellness and Prevention Benchmark: The combined percentage of overweight and obese adults in Maine will decline to 50% by 2020 Source: U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention Maine Obesity and Overweight Rate Drops below U.S. Average PERCENTAGE OF OVERWEIGHT AND OBESE ADULTS 2009-2017 80% U.S. MAINE 70% 60% 50% 2009 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TREND OF PEOPLE OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE IN 2007 - 2017 U.S. MAINE This indicator measures the proportion of adults who Percentage of Overweight and Obese Adults 1997-2017 NORMAL/ are overweight or obese. Excess body weight increases 25% 31% 26% UNDERWEIGHT Obesity 29% Overweight 34% 35% 37% 37% the risks of chronic diseases like diabetes, heart PERCENTAGE OF OVERWEIGHT AND OBESE ADULTS 2009-2017 OBESE disease, stroke, asthma, arthritis, and some cancers. Maine U.S. Maine U.S. 38% 35%productivity and 36% 37% negatively affect These 80%conditions U.S. 16.2% 16.5% 37.0% 36.2% 1997 OVERWEIGHT increase medical expenses. MAINE 2007 2017 70%two-thirds of Maine adults—65%—were Nearly overweight (body mass index of 25 to 29.9) or obese (BMI of 30 or greater) in 2017. While Maine’s rate has 60%slightly from 63% in 2007, it decreased in grown both 2016 and 2017, and is now two points below the national average of 67%. 50% 2009 2010 2012 2011 2007 2002 2007 20.7% 2013 21.9% 38.0% 37.0% 25.2% 26.3% 37.7% 36.6% 2012 28.4% 27.6% 35.8% 35.8% 2017 29.1% 31.3% 35.9% 35.3% 2014 2015 2017 2016 2017 TREND OF PEOPLE OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE IN 2007 - 2017 U.S. 26% 37% MAINE 34% 31% 25% 37% 29% 35% NORMAL/ UNDERWEIGHT OBESE 37% 35% 38% 36% OVERWEIGHT 2007 2017 2007 2017 26 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 23 - Health Insurance Coverage Maine’s Health Insurance Coverage Stable, Remains Above U.S. Average POPULATION WITH HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE 2009-2017 100% U.S. MAINE 95% 90% 85% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 This measure tracks Census data on the proportion of the population with health insurance coverage. Higher health insurance coverage rates improve access to health care services, support local health systems, and boost families’ ability to pay for necessities. 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population with Health Insurance Coverage 2016 County Cumberland Rim Counties The proportion of Maine residents with health insurance coverage declined from 91.5% in 2007—when it exceeded the national average by six points—to 88.8% in 2013, then rose to 92% by 2016. In 2017, 91.9% of Mainers had health insurance, slightly above national average of 91.3%. An estimated 106,000 people in Maine do not have health insurance coverage. Cumberland County has Maine’s highest health insurance coverage rate, 92.2%, and Washington County has the lowest, 83.6% 2015 Coastal Counties 2009 Central Counties 80% Benchmark: The percentage of Maine’s population with health insurance coverage will continually rise and remain above the U.S. rate Rate 92.2% Sagadahoc 91.4% York 90.8% Knox 89.1% Hancock 88.4% Waldo Lincoln 88.1% Androscoggin 90.6% 87.7% Kennebec 90.2% Penobscot 88.0% Oxford 89.1% Aroostook 88.5% Franklin 88.4% Somerset 88.0% Piscataquis 86.6% Washington 83.6% Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 27 Access to Healthy Food Vital to Maine People and Economy 24 - Food Insecurity 20% U.S. NEW ENGLAND MAINE 16% 12% 8% 2011 2012 2013 2014 This measure tracks the proportion of households experiencing food insecurity. Food insecure households experience disrupted eating patterns, reduced food intake, and reduced quality or variety of diet. Food insecurity has negative impacts on health, child development, education outcomes, and productivity. 14.4% of Maine households were food insecure in 2017, above the 2007 rate of 13.3% but a substantial decline from 16.4% in 2016. Food insecurity in Maine is still well above the U.S. average of 12.3% and the New England average of 11.4% in 2017. County-level data are from a different source with lower estimates of food insecurity (13.8% for Maine in 2016, compared with 16.4% reported by the USDA). According to Feeding America, food insecurity rates range from 12% in Sagadahoc and York Counties to 16% in the rim counties of Aroostook, Piscataquis, Somerset, and Washington. 2015 2016 2017 Food Insecurity Rates by County, 2016 County Sagadahoc Coastal Counties 2010 Central Counties Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS 2010-2017 (3-YEAR MOVING AVERAGE) Rim Counties Benchmark: Maine’s percentage of food insecure households will decline to the U.S. average by 2020 Rate 12.0% York 12.1% Lincoln 12.7% Knox 12.8% Cumberland 13.0% Hancock 13.6% Waldo 14.1% Kennebec 14.0% Androscoggin 14.8% Penobscot 15.1% Franklin 13.5% Oxford 14.4% Somerset 15.6% Washington 15.8% Aroostook 16.0% Piscataquis 16.4% Source: Feeding America 28 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 ENVIRONMENT BY LAND, LAKE, SEA AND STREAM. Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 29 Unhealthy Air Days in Maine Reach Lowest Level on Record 25 - Air Quality Source: Maine Department of Environmental Protection MAINE ANNUAL AIR QUALITY INDEX 1980-2018 100 Very Unhealthy Unhealthy Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups 75 TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS Benchmark:. The overall number of days classified as a health risk and the severity of risks will be maintained through 2020 Moderate 50 25 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 The air quality index is based on ozone levels in parts per billion and tracks the number of days each year when the maximum ozone level recorded in the state reached moderate or unhealthy levels. Maine’s air quality contributes to health and wellness, and makes it an attractive place to live, do business, and visit. Air quality is subject to factors both within and beyond our borders. 2005 2010 2015 2018 In 2018, there were 29 moderate air quality days and 3 days were rated unhealthy for sensitive groups, the lowest figures to date. After declining in the 1980s and 1990s, air quality in Maine has improved substantially, and is better than other Northeastern states. 30 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 26 - Water Quality Maine’s Water Quality Far Exceeds U.S. Average PERCENT OF CATEGORY 1 OR 2 WATER BODIES 2006-2016 100% Maine Lakes Maine Rivers and Streams 75% U.S. Lakes 50% U.S. Rivers and Streams 25% 0% 2006 2008 2010 This measure is based on Maine Department of Environmental Protection and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reports on the water quality of Maine rivers, streams, and lakes. The proportion of water bodies achieving Maine’s Category 1 and 2 classifications are compared with U.S. water bodies receiving the Environmental Protection Agency’s “good” classification. Maine’s rivers, lakes, and streams provide drinking water and support 2012 2014 2016 ecosystems. They are part of the natural environment that supports tourism. Since 2006, Maine’s water quality has remained steady, with 95% of rivers and streams and 91% of lakes achieving category 1 or 2 in 2016. Nationally, the latest data are from 2014, when 47% of U.S. rivers and streams and 29% of the lakes were rated “good.” Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 31 Benchmark: The percentage of Maine’s assessed water bodies classified as Categories 1 or 2 will be maintained over time Source: Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Water Quality, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 27 - Sustainable Forest Lands 2.5 2.0 MORE GROWTH Source: Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry Maine Forest Service HISTORIC TREND IN THE NET GROWTH TO REMOVALS RATIO 1950-2017 1.5 BALANCE LINE 1.0 MORE HARVEST Benchmark:. A net growth to removals ratio of approximately 1:1 will be maintained over time Maine’s Growth to Harvest Ratio Increasing 0.5 0 1950 1959 1971 1982 1995 2003 The sustainable management of Maine’s forests is measured by the growth to harvest rate. A net growth value above one means that growth exceeds harvest and a value below one means that harvest exceeds growth. Forests cover nearly 90% of Maine’s land area. Private landowners manage 93% of forested acreage, with much of it accessible to the public. Forests provide habitat for wildlife, help protect air and water quality, offer recreational opportunities, and 2008 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2017 supply raw materials for products ranging from paper to alternative fuels. Sustainable forestry supports Maine’s economy, environment, and quality of life. Since 2010, Maine has maintained net forest growth to removals ratios slightly in favor of growth over harvest. The growth to harvest ratio rose slightly from 1.43 in 2016 to 1.47 in 2017. 32 Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 BACKGROUND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Maine Economic Growth Council was established by statute in 1993 to develop, maintain, and evaluate a long-term economic plan for Maine. Its members represent a broad and diverse cross-section of Maine’s key constituencies. Members are jointly appointed by the Governor, Senate President, and Speaker of the House. The annual Measures of Growth report is a widely used and respected report on Maine’s economy. The report has been revised from time to time to provide the most current and meaningful assessment of Maine’s progress toward long-term economic growth and a high quality of life for all Maine people. The Maine Economic Growth Council is administered by the Maine Development Foundation (MDF), a private, non-partisan membership organization created in statute in 1977 that drives sustainable, long-term economic growth for Maine. The work of the Growth Council is financed by a state appropriation through the Maine Department of Economic and Community Development, with additional support provided by the membership of MDF. The Maine Economic Growth Council and Maine Development Foundation extend their sincere appreciation to the individuals and organizations that generously provided data and guidance in the development of this report. Special thanks to Jim Damicis of Camoin Associates, George Lindbom and Wade Merritt of the Maine International Trade Center, Donald Mansius of the Maine Forest Service, Glenn Mills of the Maine Department of Labor, State Economist Amanda Rector, Richard Taylor of MaineHousing, and Martha Webster of the Maine Department of Environmental Protection. This year’s report was researched by Lisa Plimpton, designed by Pica, and printed by J.S. McCarthy. THE NATURE OF DATA The Growth Council strives to provide the most accurate, timely, and consistent data available. Some source data is regularly revised as methodologies improve and more information becomes available. As a result, the data presented here may differ slightly from that of past reports. The Council accounts for these limitations in identifying overall trends and policy implications. MAINE ECONOMIC GROWTH COUNCIL MEMBERS 2019 Stephen Von Vogt, Co-Chair* President and CEO Maine Marine Composites LuAnn Ballesteros Director, Office of Government Relations The Jackson Laboratory Thomas Kittredge Economic Development Director City of Belfast Keith Bisson President Coastal Enterprises Inc. Sheena Bunnell Professor of Business Economics University of Maine at Farmington Donna Cassese Consultant Sappi North America Hon. James Dill State Senator Senate District 5 James Erwin Partner Pierce Atwood LLP Steve Hewins President and CEO Hospitality Maine Heather Johnson Commissioner Maine Department of Economic and Community Development John Napolitano Business Mgr., Financial Secretary, Treasurer Plumbers and Pipefitters Union 716 Timothy Nightingale Executive Vice President, Senior Loan Officer Camden National Bank Hon. Matthew Pouliot State Senator Senate District 15 Steve Schley Pingree Associates, Inc. Hon. Harold Stewart State Representative House District 147 David Tassoni President Access Healthcare Services Tim Walton Walton External Affairs Hon. Dale Denno** State Representative House District 45 *The Council has not yet named its other co-chair for 2019 **State Representative Dale Denno, House District 45, participated in deliberations prior to his March 27 resignation for health reasons PHOTO CREDITS: Page 8 courtesy Lisa Scali, Ocean’s Balance; Page 22 courtesy Red Stallion Media; Page 29 courtesy Maine Forest Products Council PDF available for download at mdf.org Prepared by the Maine Development Foundation for the Maine Economic Growth Council, April 2019 33 VISION A HIGH QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL MAINE PEOPLE ECONOMY QUALITY OF LIFE COMMUNITY MEGC ENVIRONMENT Administered by Maine Economic Growth Council 2 Beech Street, Suite 203 / Hallowell, ME 04347 / 207-622-6345 / mdf.org