Suffolk University New Hampshire Marginals April 2019 Region: (N=800) n West/North -------------------------------------------------------- 176 Central ------------------------------------------------------------- 208 Hillsborough ------------------------------------------------------ 224 Rockingham ------------------------------------------------------ 192 % 22.00 26.00 28.00 24.00 Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and I would like to get your opinions on some issues of the day in New Hampshire. Would you like to spend seven minutes to help us out? 1. Gender (N=800) n Male ---------------------------------------------------------------- 396 Female ------------------------------------------------------------- 404 % 49.50 50.50 2. How likely are you to vote in the presidential election next year -- very likely, somewhat likely, 5050 or not likely? (N=800) n % Very likely --------------------------------------------------------- 786 98.25 Somewhat likely ------------------------------------------------- 14 1.75 3. Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, or Undeclared/Independent? (N=800) n % Democrat ---------------------------------------------------------- 232 29.00 Republican -------------------------------------------------------- 256 32.00 Independent/Undeclared -------------------------------------- 294 36.75 Other/Not registered --------------------------------------------- 12 1.50 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 6 0.75 4. What is your age category? (N=800) n 18-24 Years ------------------------------------------------------- 62 25-34 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 101 35-49 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 174 50-64 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 214 65-74 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 147 75+ ------------------------------------------------------------------- 89 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 13 % 7.75 12.63 21.75 26.75 18.38 11.13 1.63 5. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me what your ethnic background / ancestry is? (N=800) n % White / Caucasian----------------------------------------------- 707 88.38 Black / African-American --------------------------------------- 16 2.00 American Indian / Alaska Native ------------------------------- 8 1.00 Asian ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12 1.50 Native Hawaiian / Other Pacific Islander --------------------- 2 0.25 Hispanic / Latino -------------------------------------------------- 19 2.38 Other ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12 1.50 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 24 3.00 6. Do you feel the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track? (N=800) n % Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 1 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University April 2019 Right Direction --------------------------------------------------- 295 Wrong Track ----------------------------------------------------- 426 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 79 7. 36.88 53.25 9.88 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? (N=800) n % Approve ------------------------------------------------------------ 325 40.63 Disapprove ------------------------------------------------------- 427 53.38 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 48 6.00 I am going to read you a short list of individuals and for each, please tell me if your opinion of them is generally favorable or generally unfavorable. If you are undecided or if you have never heard of someone, just tell me that. First take Donald Trump. Is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable or generally unfavorable? (RANDOMIZE 9-11) (N=800) NEVER HEARD FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HOF/UNDECIDED 8. Donald Trump 0 0.00 329 41.13 428 53.50 43 5.38 9. Chris Sununu 20 2.50 432 54.00 185 23.13 163 20.38 10. Maggie Hassan 32 4.00 337 42.13 295 36.88 136 17.00 11. Jeanne Shaheen 36 4.50 358 44.75 286 35.75 120 15.00 12. This year, several states are considering legalized sports betting. Do you think New Hampshire should legalize sports betting – yes or no? (N=800) n % Yes------------------------------------------------------------------ 379 47.38 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 294 36.75 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 125 15.63 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.25 13. Next I’d like to shift to national politics. The New Hampshire presidential primaries are about ten months away. At this point, do you think you’ll vote in the Democratic Primary, Republican Primary, or skip the primaries altogether? (N=800) n % Democratic Primary -------------------------------------------- 347 43.38 Republican Primary --------------------------------------------- 312 39.00 Skip Primaries ---------------------------------------------------- 59 7.38 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 79 9.88 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.38 Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 2 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University New Hampshire Marginals April 2019 {FOR 13.1,4,5} 14. I’m going to read you a list of some candidates. If the Democratic Primary for President were held today and the candidates were …. {RANDOMIZE}, for whom would you vote or lean toward? (N=429) n % Michael Bennet ----------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Joe Biden ---------------------------------------------------------- 86 20.05 Cory Booker ------------------------------------------------------- 12 2.80 Steve Bullock -------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.47 Pete Buttigieg ----------------------------------------------------- 51 11.89 Julian Castro -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Bill de Blasio --------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 John Delaney ------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.70 Tulsi Gabbard ------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.17 Kirsten Gillibrand --------------------------------------------------- 2 0.47 Mike Gravel ---------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 26 6.06 John Hickenlooper ------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Jay Inslee ------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Amy Klobuchar ----------------------------------------------------- 5 1.17 Wayne Messam ---------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Seth Moulton -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Beto O’Rourke ---------------------------------------------------- 13 3.03 Tim Ryan ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.23 Bernie Sanders --------------------------------------------------- 53 12.35 Eric Swalwell -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------------------- 36 8.39 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------- 2 0.47 Andrew Yang -------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.17 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 115 26.81 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.17 {FOR ALL RESPONDENTS EXCEPT 14.22} 15. In the previous question you did not select Elizabeth Warren. What is your primary reason for not choosing Warren? Would you say (RANDOMIZE 15.1 – 15.5): (N=393) n % She can’t beat Donald Trump --------------------------------- 70 17.81 The Native American heritage issue makes her too vulnerable ------------------------------------------------ 19 4.83 She doesn’t excite me ------------------------------------------ 42 10.69 She comes off as angry ---------------------------------------- 38 9.67 Her policies are too liberal ------------------------------------- 35 8.91 Other (Don’t know enough about her)----------------------- 13 3.31 Other (Prefer other candidate) -------------------------------- 16 4.07 Other (Liar/Do not trust her) ------------------------------------- 9 2.29 All other ------------------------------------------------------------- 44 11.20 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 97 24.68 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.54 Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 3 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University April 2019 {FOR 13.1,4,5} 16. Have you attended an event for one of the candidates for president? (N=429) n Yes------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 356 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 1 % 16.78 82.98 0.23 {FOR 13.1,4,5} 17. In your opinion, which candidate in the Democratic field has the BEST chance of beating President Trump? (N=429) n % Michael Bennet ----------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Joe Biden --------------------------------------------------------- 152 35.43 Cory Booker --------------------------------------------------------- 9 2.10 Steve Bullock -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Pete Buttigieg ----------------------------------------------------- 21 4.90 Julian Castro -------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Bill de Blasio --------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 John Delaney ------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Tulsi Gabbard ------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.17 Kirsten Gillibrand --------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Mike Gravel ---------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 10 2.33 John Hickenlooper ------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Jay Inslee ------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Amy Klobuchar ----------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Wayne Messam ---------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Seth Moulton -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Beto O’Rourke ---------------------------------------------------- 11 2.56 Tim Ryan ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.23 Bernie Sanders --------------------------------------------------- 56 13.05 Eric Swalwell -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------------------- 12 2.80 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Andrew Yang -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.17 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 135 31.47 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.70 {FOR 13.1,4,5} I’m going to read you some issues that are now being discussed by Democratic candidates for president and for each, please tell me whether you think the eventual Democratic nominee – whomever it is – should support each issue or not support each issue. First take, (RANDOMIZE 18-21) 18. The Green New Deal (N=429) n Democratic nominee should support ----------------------- 228 Democratic nominee should oppose ------------------------ 81 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 118 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 4 of 8 % 53.15 18.88 27.51 0.47 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University 19. 20. 21. 22. New Hampshire Marginals April 2019 Medicare-for-All (N=429) n Democratic nominee should support ----------------------- 325 Democratic nominee should oppose ------------------------ 70 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 32 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 2 % 75.76 16.32 7.46 0.47 Higher Taxes on the very wealthy (N=429) n Democratic nominee should support ----------------------- 350 Democratic nominee should oppose ------------------------ 56 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 23 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 0 % 81.59 13.05 5.36 0.00 Breaking up Big Tech Companies (N=429) n Democratic nominee should support ----------------------- 181 Democratic nominee should oppose ----------------------- 147 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 100 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 1 % 42.19 34.27 23.31 0.23 Free Higher Education (N=429) n Democratic nominee should support ----------------------- 259 Democratic nominee should oppose ----------------------- 129 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 40 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 1 % 60.37 30.07 9.32 0.23 {FOR 13.1,4,5} 23. Reparations for slavery is the idea that some form of payment needs to be made to the descendants of Africans who had been enslaved resulting in forced labor and bodily harm as part of the Atlantic slave trade. Do you support or oppose the idea of payments made to the descendants of African slaves? (N=429) n % Support ------------------------------------------------------------ 154 35.90 Oppose ------------------------------------------------------------ 191 44.52 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 83 19.35 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.23 {FOR 13.2,4,5} 24-25 You indicated you plan to vote in the Republican primary. I’m going to run a couple of scenarios with some possible Republican candidates challenging Donald Trump in the Republican Primary. For each, please tell me who you would vote for or lean toward in a Republican Primary. 24. If the Republican Primary was held today and the candidates were Donald Trump, Larry Hogan, John Kasich, and Bill Weld, toward whom would you vote or lean? Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 5 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University April 2019 (N=394) n Donald Trump ---------------------------------------------------- 274 Larry Hogan --------------------------------------------------------- 1 John Kasich ------------------------------------------------------- 36 Bill Weld ------------------------------------------------------------ 31 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 48 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 4 % 69.54 0.25 9.14 7.87 12.18 1.02 25. What if the Republican candidates were just Donald Trump versus Bill Weld? (N=394) n % Donald Trump ---------------------------------------------------- 285 72.34 Bill Weld ------------------------------------------------------------ 65 16.50 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 39 9.90 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.27 26. If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for President Trump, the Democratic nominee, or a third party candidate? (N=800) n % President Trump ------------------------------------------------- 319 39.88 Democratic nominee ------------------------------------------- 344 43.00 Third Party candidate ------------------------------------------- 46 5.75 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 90 11.25 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.13 27. Thinking about the 2020 election, would you be satisfied with a presidential candidate who thinks the United States should be more socialist – yes or no? (N=800) n % Yes------------------------------------------------------------------ 239 29.88 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 486 60.75 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 72 9.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.38 28. Do you consider yourself more of a socialist or capitalist? (N=800) n Socialist ------------------------------------------------------------ 171 Capitalist ---------------------------------------------------------- 473 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 144 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 12 % 21.38 59.13 18.00 1.50 29. Do you support or oppose building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico? (N=800) n % Support ------------------------------------------------------------ 358 44.75 Oppose ------------------------------------------------------------ 408 51.00 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 32 4.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.25 30. There has been a lot of discussion about the age of candidates for public office. Do you think a person who is 70 years old or older is too old to run for president – or not? (N=800) n % Yes – Too old ---------------------------------------------------- 159 19.88 No – Not too old to run for president ----------------------- 595 74.38 Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 6 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University New Hampshire Marginals Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 44 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 2 April 2019 5.50 0.25 31. How would you describe your own political viewpoint – very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative? {ROTATE .1-.5 ASCENDING TO DESCENDING} (N=800) n % Very liberal --------------------------------------------------------- 59 7.38 Liberal -------------------------------------------------------------- 126 15.75 Moderate ---------------------------------------------------------- 305 38.13 Conservative ----------------------------------------------------- 184 23.00 Very Conservative ----------------------------------------------- 85 10.63 Other ---------------------------------------------------------------- 22 2.75 Don’t know -------------------------------------------------------- 19 2.38 32. In the 2016 election for president did you vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party Jill Stein, or did you not vote in 2016? (N=800) n % Democrat Hillary Clinton --------------------------------------- 354 44.25 Republican Donald Trump ------------------------------------ 352 44.00 Libertarian Gary Johnson -------------------------------------- 23 2.88 Green Jill Stein --------------------------------------------------- 11 1.38 Did not vote in 2016 --------------------------------------------- 24 3.00 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 23 2.88 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 13 1.63 THE FINAL QUESTIONS WILL HELP US CLASSIFY YOUR ANSWERS WITH OTHERS TAKING THE SURVEY 33. 34. 35. What is your annual household income? (READ CATEGORIES) (N=800) n Under $20,000 per year ---------------------------------------- 52 Under $50,000 per year --------------------------------------- 119 Under $75,000 per year --------------------------------------- 124 Under $100,000 per year -------------------------------------- 117 Under $140,000 per year -------------------------------------- 121 $140,000 per year or more ----------------------------------- 162 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 105 % 6.50 14.88 15.50 14.63 15.13 20.25 13.13 Is anyone in your household a member of a labor union? (N=800) n Yes------------------------------------------------------------------ 106 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 688 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 2 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 4 % 13.25 86.00 0.25 0.50 Are there any members of your household who are gun owners? (N=800) n Yes------------------------------------------------------------------ 359 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 413 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 4 Refused------------------------------------------------------------- 24 % 44.88 51.63 0.50 3.00 Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 7 of 8 New Hampshire Study Suffolk University 36. April 2019 Are any members of your household part of the LGBTQ community? (N=800) n Yes------------------------------------------------------------------- 93 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 693 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 8 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 6 % 11.63 86.63 1.00 0.75 {FOR 36.2-4} 37. Do you have extended family or friends who are part of the LGBTQ community? (N=707) n % Yes------------------------------------------------------------------ 427 60.40 No ------------------------------------------------------------------- 261 36.92 Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 13 1.84 Refused--------------------------------------------------------------- 6 0.85 [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] Fielded 4/25 - 4/28 Page 8 of 8 New Hampshire Study