Who is the next generation Of Long Islanders? What are their attitudes? Will they stay or come back? High-quality, non-partisan research and analysis about issues facing Long Island Funded by a charitable project grant from The Rauch Foundation 1 INTRODUCTION The Project nextLI is a call to participate in the civic life of Long Island. The project’s centerpiece is high-caliber, non-partisan research that is essential to understanding Long Island’s regional challenges. With everything nextLI publishes, the goal will be to inform and sustain a conversation about how to maintain the best of Long Island, while reinventing it for future generations. This new initiative by Newsday is funded by a three-year grant from The Rauch Foundation. It is a successor to the pioneering Long Island Index that provided data and analysis essential to understanding our region for 15 years. nextLI nextLI 2 INTRODUCTION N The Mission extLI is a way for us to envision our future. We want to serve as a catalyst to plan for a Long Island that is modern and sustainable, where imagination and ambition thrive, and where residents work together on common projects that improve lives. Our forums will focus on public policy issues — particularly those that can be informed by research, vital topics that will require community consensus to move forward. Through these connections, we hope to foster a better understanding about how to grow, improve and conserve our resources. 3 INTRODUCTION The Community next.newsday.com is... A destination for regional consensus building. A free, accessible website hosting dynamic digital tools to learn about and debate vital issues. A moderated forum for Long Islanders to discuss critical public policy questions. Unheard voices will be recruited to engage in this effort to build a new suburb. nextLI nextLI 4 INTRODUCTION Table of Contents I. Who is the next generation of Long Islanders taking over? 7 • Education 7-8 • Living Arrangements 9 • Employment and Income 10 • Who are they? 11-12 • Data Dive – income distribution, population, GDP, employment, wage 13-16 II. What do these young adults think? Perspectives & attitudes 17 • Housing 18 • Diversity 19-20 • Community Involvement 21 • Transportation 22 • Other 23-25 • Data Dive – household cost, household income, median rent, home values, renter-occupied units, poverty, food stamps, rail and bus ridership, vehicle registrations, health insurance coverage 26-31 III. Will they stay or come back? • Likes and Dislikes 33 • Long Island’s Future 34 -35 • Leaving Long Island 36 • A Group That Left – Native LIers living in NYC 37-40 • Data Dive – life expectancy, walkability, free or reduced price lunch, pre-K 41-43 32 5 INTRODUCTION nextLI Introduction O They realized decades ago. ur region once recognized the need to appeal to young adults. In the post-WWII era that shaped modern-day Long Island, returning veterans needed affordable homes, ones that could be built quickly. Young families were crowded in the attics of their parents, while others raised two or three children in one-bedroom apartments in New York City. Soon, farmland was turned into tracts of single-family homes, and buyers showed up in the hundreds, often sleeping outside in the cold overnight to keep their places in line. Nassau County had invented suburbia. Today’s housing needs are also acute. The suburb must again meet the needs of its young adults to ensure the future remains vital. Too many young people are living in their childhood homes because of the high cost and lack of housing to meet their needs. Rents are high and homes are expensive. Some of those born and educated here are headed to states where the cost of living is cheaper. As a result, Long Island is getting grayer, births are barely outpacing deaths, and only new immigration is stopping a total population loss. Survey Methodology Data collected February 18 – March 4, 2019 1354 respondents 302 live on Long Island previously lived on Long Island but now live in respondents the five New York City boroughs Weighting: Quotas were designed to account for Long Island living status, as well as targets by race. Long Island responses were weighted using Census Bureau data available on the overall population of Long Island counties (Suffolk and Nassau) by gender and race. nextLI INTRODUCTION 6 A look at young Long Islanders Change is needed. But what does the next generation of Long Islanders want? What do they think about the future of our region and the ways to meet its challenges? Will they stay here, and will those who left return? To answer those questions, our inaugural study surveyed the attitudes of Long Island’s young adults today. What follows are the findings of more than 1,800 interviews with 18- to 34-yearolds either living on Long Island or who were born here. What they told us paints a picture worth paying attention to. FOR FULL REPORT VISIT NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM Overall the study consists of 1,805 online surveys among adults age 18 - 34 Average interview length: 10 minutes 104 respondents 45 commute to school on Long Island work on Long Island, but do not live here respondents YouGov is an independent, Internet-based public opinion and research firm. It operates an online panel of 2 million respondents in the United States who represent all ages, socioeconomic and other demographic types. An online panel is made up of individuals who have agreed to complete surveys via the Internet. 7 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND nextLI The survey: Who is the next generation of Long Islanders taking over? Today I still owe more than $40,000 for classes I took between 2009 and 2012. For years, I felt the weight of having loans but not owning anything. Before diving into the perspectives of this young adult population who live, work, study and/or were born on Long Island, the survey asked about their education levels, economic positions, racial and ethnic identities and living arrangements. These identifiers are key to understanding what shapes their attitudes and drives their views. HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS 20% POSTGRADUATE DEGREE 17% Portia Ingram, 30, Bay Shore IN COLLEGE Education Long Island’s young adults are highly educated – and they are highly in debt because of it. 21% COLLEGE DEGREE 42% To read full essay, visit NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM nextLI 8 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND Levels of Education Among those surveyed, 8 in 10 Long Islanders ages 18 to 34 have a college degree or are working on one. Black and Hispanic residents are more likely to have less college experience, while White and Asian residents are more likely to have a bachelor’s or postgraduate degree. Nassau County has more bachelor’s or postgraduate degree residents than Suffolk County. The survey answers show how Long Islanders’ level of education affects their lifestyles and shapes their views: High school educated College educated Post-grad educated There’s higher unemployment and less They resemble those with postgraduate An affluent group, more likely to be home ownership in this group. They degrees more than they resemble employed and to have purchased are likely to have been raised here and those with only a high school education, homes. They are less likely to support never left, but despite their ties to the except in their support for housing- housing policy changes and feel the community, they are less involved or policy changes. most positive about raising kids on interested in managing it. They strongly Long Island. support more housing options. Less educated - less likely to have lived off Long Island - less likely to be employed or in a union - less likely to own their home - most supportive of housing-policy changes - less likely to tune in to current events and community involvement Highly educated - more likely to have lived off Long Island - more likely to be employed or in a union - more likely to own their home - less supportive of change that might be perceived to negatively impact house prices - more likely to tune in to current events and community involvement There are consequences for Long Island’s high achievers, 66 percent of whom have or had loans. More than half of those with loans say that burden has delayed life milestones, like buying a home or starting a family. Black residents are the most likely to currently have a student loan, while Asian residents are the most likely to have paid off their debt. Black and Hispanic respondents with student loans are the most likely to have delayed a life decision because of their debt. 9 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND nextLI Living Arrangements So where do the region’s 18- to 34-year-olds live? For more than 1 in 3 of them, it’s in the home of a parent or a relative, with 35 percent reporting such arrangements. RENT HOME RELATIVE’S HOME 32% 35% Black and Asian residents are the most likely to live with a relative, as well as those who live in Nassau County. 64 percent live in single-family homes, 17 percent in apartments, and 10 percent live in apartments within a single-family home. OTHER OWN HOME 3% 30% Half of Long Island’s young adults surveyed have never lived anywhere else. Among those who have, most moved to Long Island prior to high school graduation and one-third moved to Long Island either for college or employment. While there’s a sizable number looking to purchase homes on Long Island in the next five years, 67 percent plan to move from Long Island to a place with more affordable housing. Specifically, Black and Asian residents are least likely to have plans to buy on Long Island while more educated residents and Asians lean toward purchasing their first home in New York City. FOR FULL REPORT VISIT NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM 67% Plan to move away from LI for more affordable housing Even though many of those surveyed have been here for most of their lives, costs are driving some away. Eight out of 10 in this age group know someone who has moved away, and report it is most often because it’s “too expensive” here. 55% 44% Plan to purchase a home within the next 5 years Of the above plan to purchase a home on LI nextLI 10 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND Employment & Income Long Islanders in this age group are mostly employed, but still struggle to make ends meet. The survey indicates that 70 percent work full or part time and 1 in 4 report having a second job. 74 percent work on Long Island. More than half struggle to pay monthly bills. Hispanics, in particular, report high levels of employment, but are most likely to struggle to pay monthly bills. Income brackets determine the quality of life for young Long Islanders in this survey: Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 or more 46% polled earn this 27% polled earn this 19% polled earn this They had a higher likelihood of living off Long Island at some point, and now back, they struggle to pay rent or buy homes. They are less likely to pay for childcare, and their views resemble the high-income group more closely than the low- income bracket. As the most satisfied with Long Island, they answered as least likely to leave, most likely to own their own homes and prouder to live on LI than other income brackets. This group struggles the most to pay rent and other bills and is more likely to have student loans impact life decisions, and they are most likely to question whether they want to stay here because of a lack of housing choices. $50,000 or less $50,000 or more Nearly 4 in 10 live in home of parent or relative More than 1 in 5 live in home of parent or relative 12% OWN 40% RENT 50% OWN 28% RENT In the survey, non-White residents and residents from Nassau County were more likely to say they knew people turning down well-paying jobs on Long Island, which poses an economic challenge for the region worth exploring. 11 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND nextLI Who are they? 65% 65% Interact with another race or ethnicity daily 62% Say their neighborhood is diverse Say K-12 prepared them for a multicultural word Here’s a snapshot of how Long Island’s racial and ethnic makeup has evolved. In 2017 on Long Island...… While 86 percent of those 65 years and older were White alone, 69 percent in Gen Z (those younger than 24) were White alone. This shift occurred as the populations of Blacks, Asians and those of mixed race increased with each generation. Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year Estimates Silent Generation (75+ years old) Boomers (55-74) 86% White 7% Black 82% White 8% Black 4% Asian 1% Two or more races 6% Asian 1% Two or more races Gen X (35-54) Millennials (25-34) 72% White 10% Black 68% White 12% Black 8% Asian 2% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Two or more races Gen Z (5-24) 69% White 11% Black 7% Asian 5% Two or more races nextLI 12 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND Let’s explore the Long Island experience through the lenses of different races and ethnicities based on their survey answers: HISPANICS ASIANS Hispanic Long Islanders face many economic challenges, with annual incomes generally under $50,000 and lacking a college education. Many work full time and wish to buy a home on Long Island, but many are also likely to leave for cheaper rent. They support policies to increase access to affordable housing. Despite their lower incomes, Asian Long Islanders are not as financially stressed, not struggling as much with bills or student loan debt. Many are students, have higher-education degrees, or both. They say they want to buy homes in New York City and experience better nightlife, but they plan to return to Long Island for retirement. They also support policies to increase access to affordable housing. BLACKS WHITES There’s distress among Black Long Islanders. Lack of education and employment opportunities leave many living with relatives and unable to access the region’s amenities. They struggle with housing costs, childcare bills and student loans. They like Long Island the least and are the most likely to leave. They support policies to increase access to affordable housing. Facing economic challenges and increasing housing costs, this group believes Long Island’s glory days have passed, leaving Whites with a dim view of the future here. Despite having the most income, education, and access to amenities, most Whites are not satisfied, particularly with the cost of living. 13 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND nextLI INDICATORS DATA DIVE See how our survey topics compare with national numbers. An economic indicator is a data point used to interpret and help judge the overall health of an economy. It’s a snapshot based on government-collected numbers analyzed to see how a region, in this case Long Island, compares with both itself and other places nearby and nationally over time. Household Income Distribution, Adjusted for Inflation Households earning more than $100,000 make up more than half of Long Island’s population, while one quarter of the population earns less than $50,000. 100% 80% 60% 80% 40% 49% 14% 0% 50% 50% 50% 48% 47% 47% 46% More e than $ $100 $100,000 100,000 000 0 51% 48% 48%$100,00 50% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 13% % 2005: 2005 2 005: 14 14% % 14% 15% 20% 49% 14% 14% 14% 2008: 2 008: 14 14% % 14% $25,000 $ 25,000 25 000 - $34 $34, $34,999 Less L ess than than $25,00 $25,0 $25,000 $25 0 00 000 0 110% 00 11% 11% 10% 10% 2005: 2 005: 11% 11% 2005 9% 2008 Less than $25,000 $25,000 - $34,999 $75,000 - $99,999 More than $100,000 14% 2017: 51% 5 13% 12% 13% % 13% 3% $35,000 $ 35,000 35 000 0 - $49, $49 $49,9 999 9 9 2015: 2 015 8% 015: % 11% 2017 2011 12% 12% 11% 2014 $35,000 - $49,999 11% 12% 11% 2017 $50,000 - $74,999 Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates nextLI 14 NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND Long Island Population Population growth has leveled off since 2014. 2,900,000 2,850,000 2,850,000 2,800,000 2,750,000 2005 2008 2017 2011 2014 2017 Population Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates Population Change in Nassau and Suffolk Counties Since 2010, Nassau County’s population has grown slightly, while Suffolk County’s has declined. Prior to that, Suffolk had been growing more than Nassau. 60,000 40,000 20,000 40,000 0 Nassau N Na a County in 2012: 2 4,797 4 797 7 Suffolk Suffo Su l Cou County o in 2017: 3 370 -20,000 -40,000 2006 2009 Nassau County 2015 2012 2015 Suffolk County Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND 15 GDP Growth, Indexed to 2000 Long Island’s Gross Domestic Product growth tracks alongside the nation’s, but the rate of growth is slower. 140 130 120 130 110 100 90 2000 2004 20082016 US GDP 2012 2016 Long Island GDP Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Moody’s Analytics Estimated Employment Rate, Indexed to 2000 Since 2010, New York City’s employment has grown by 20 percent, while Long Island’s has only grown by 10 percent. 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2004 NYC 20082016 Long Island Hudson Valley 2012 New Jersey 2016 Connecticut Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages nextLI nextLI NEXT GENERATION OF LONG ISLAND 16 Average Annual Wage, in 2017 Dollars Compared with the United States, Long Islanders earn more. However, both counties lag behind Westchester County in annual wage. 140,000 120,000 100,000 120,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 2001 2005 Manhattan 2009 2017 US Long Island 2013 2017 Westchester Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Annual Wage Growth, Indexed to 2001 Suffolk County’s wages are growing faster than Nassau County’s since 2001. 115 110 105 110 100 95 2001 2005 2009 2017 Nassau County 2013 2017 Suffolk County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 17 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI The survey: What do they think? Perspectives & attitudes There is one thing that Long Island’s young adults agree on no matter what their backgrounds: Long Island’s parks, beaches and outdoor attractions are what they most love about life here and are primarily what keeps them here. Other high-scoring reasons to stay are access to education and shopping. Thanks to a high tax burden mixed in with student loan debt, vehicle expenses, and many other ever-increasing expenses that come along with home ownership, it is nearly impossible to maintain a lifestyle that we want for our children. Their biggest gripe with Long Island is taxes across the board, even for those who rent or live with relatives. John Schneidawin, 32, North Babylon This generation also has strong opinions on housing, diversity, community involvement and transportation. Race determined other concerns about the region. White residents in this age group worry about the cost of living, while Asians say crime/violence is a big concern. Black young adults have a hard time with access to jobs, while Hispanics struggle overall with the cost of living. VERY SUPPORTIVE 39% Affordable Housing Less affluent, non-White respondents, and Nassau County residents, are more supportive of building affordable housing in affluent neighborhoods. NOT AT ALL SUPPORTIVE 8% SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE 39% 14% To read full essay, visit NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM nextLI 18 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Housing Changes to municipal housing policies, mostly through rezoning, are popular among everyone surveyed – all races and ethnicities, education levels, incomes and residents of both counties. Given that more than 2 in 3 Long Islanders in this age group report either renting or living in the home of a relative, most in single-family homes, this finding is not surprising. There is wide support for more variety in housing stock among an age group that says it wants to be more engaged in public policy. This is especially true among non-Whites and those with a high school education. Generally, those with lower incomes have the strongest desire for housing options that would be less expensive than a single-family home. 66% 66% 70% 77% MIXED USE ZONING MICRO APARTMENTS MULTI FAMILY ZONING HOME APARTMENTS Allows for the horizontal and vertical combination of land uses in a given area Smaller-than-average studios intended for a single resident Multiple separate housing units are contained within one building or several buildings within one complex Self-contained housing unit (a type of residential real estate) that occupies only part of a building, While all groups want more housing options, non-White respondents and Nassau County residents are more supportive of the construction of housing stock they can afford in more affluent neighborhoods. The neighborhoods this generation wants are those found in many downtowns. Most want to live in places that support small businesses and independent stores, and ones that are close to a vibrant and pedestrian-friendly business district, train or bus stop. 19 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Diversity A majority value living in communities with different racial and ethnic groups. When asked about their ideal neighborhood racial breakdown, more than 30 percent responded that race didn’t matter. White and higher-income residents reported more daily interactions with persons of other races or ethnicities more often than the other groups surveyed, even though non-White respondents said their neighborhoods were more diverse. Hispanic and Asian respondents said they feel the most prepared for a multicultural world because of their K-12 education. Overall, 82 percent were positive about growing diversity. 68% Racial and ethnic diversity is important 77% Diversity in schools is important 82% Feel positive about growing diversity Yet the reality is that they also want to be surrounded by those like them in the future. 71% Want to live near people with views like theirs 58% Want to raise their children in a neighborhood where half or more share their ethnicity nextLI 20 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES One in three say they are interested in having their children grow up in neighborhoods where just half of residents share their own race or ethnicity. Nearly half of higher-income White Long Islanders want the majority of residents to share their race or ethnicity compared with 28 percent for lowerincome White Long Island residents. Almost all neighbors share your race or ethnicity 15% 21% About half share your race or ethnicity 22% About three-quarters share your race or ethnicity Race doesn’t matter 10% 31% About one-quarter share your race or ethnicity 21 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Community Involvement This generation of Long Islanders is invested in its communities and what’s going on in the world. One-third identify themselves as being in local leadership-type roles (political, business or philanthropic) and two-thirds show interest in getting involved in the future, with all minority groups more active than Whites. As education level increases, so does the likelihood that the residents are active in their local communities. Hispanic, Asian, and more-educated residents most want to be involved in civic leadership in their community in the future. Currently in Local Leadership YES 34% Interested in Civic Leadership NO MAYBE NO 66% 41% 39% YES 20% Attention to Public Affairs Two-thirds of all respondents pay attention to government and public affairs at least some of the time, but Hispanics do so more than others, with 34 percent paying attention most of the time. Higher income and more educated residents follow government and public affairs more. Television was the most popular news source among all races and ethnicities, followed by social media and newspaper websites. 29% MOST OF THE TIME 37% SOME OF THE TIME 30% NOW AND THEN/NEVER nextLI 22 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Transportation Long Island is a car town and this generation doesn’t appear to want to switch gears. Nearly 9 in 10 respondents think owning a car is necessary to live on Long Island, and more than 80 percent of those surveyed say they mostly use a car to get to work or school. White residents think a car is more necessary, as do residents with college experience and residents from Suffolk. The arrival of ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft to the area has had an impact. While 21 percent of respondents report using them at least once weekly, 32 percent say ride sharing could replace owning a car. Public transportation is used weekly by only 3 of 10 of those surveyed. Asian residents are more likely to travel using public transportation. More than 60 percent report commutes under 30 minutes. Drive times 7% WORK FROM HOME 1-14 MINUTES 15-29 MINUTES 30-59 MINUTES 1 HOUR OR MORE 32% 29% 22% 10% 23 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Other Perspectives Innovation Higher-income residents are less worried about Long Island lacking the jobs of the 21st century. Those who work at a private university or school, in a trade union or are self-employed are more likely to think Long Island lacks jobs in fields like technology, biomedical engineering and alternative energy. Environment Non-White residents are more likely to agree that Long Island is on the path to a sustainable future, and residents of Nassau County are slightly more likely than Suffolk County residents to feel that way. Sustainable future? 56% YES 44% NO nextLI 24 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Marijuana Overall, 68 percent are in favor of legalizing marijuana for recreational use. More educated residents and Asians are less supportive. Support for Legalizing Recreational Use WHITE 69% BLACK 69% HISPANIC 69% ASIAN 56% 25 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Law Enforcement Trust in Police While support for law enforcement is high, non-White residents are less trusting of the police in both Nassau County and Suffolk County. OVERALL A GREAT DEAL SOME A LITTLE NONE 32% 41% 20% 7% WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN A GREAT DEAL A GREAT DEAL 36% 20% A GREAT DEAL A GREAT DEAL SOME SOME 31% 18% SOME 41% SOME 38% 45% 55% A LITTLE A LITTLE 19% NONE 7% 25% A LITTLE A LITTLE NONE 14% 19% NONE 5% 25% NONE FOR FULL REPORT VISIT NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM 5% nextLI 26 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES INDICATORS DATA DIVE See how our survey topics compare with national numbers. An economic indicator is a data point used to interpret and help judge the overall health of an economy. It’s a snapshot based on government-collected numbers analyzed to see how a region, in this case Long Island, compares with both itself and other places nearby and nationally over time. Long Island Households with Housing-Cost Burdens Nearly 20 percent of the population spends at least 50 percent of its income on housing costs. 40% 30% 2014: 2 014: 21 21% % 20% 35% 10% 0% 2005 2008 2017 2011 35-49% 2014 2017 50%+ Source: 2005-2017 ACS 1-year estimates 27 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Median Household Income and Rent Since 2010, rent has increased 9 percent on Long Island, while income has only risen 5 percent. $104,000 Median rent: M en $1,697.49 9 $1,677 Median n income: me $101,188.55 01 188.55 5 $100,000 $102,000 $98,000 L $1,650 $1,650 $1,600 Median rent Median income $102,496 $102 000 $102,000 $1,700 $96,000 $1,550 $94,000 2005 2009 2017 Median income 2013 2017 201 2017 Median rent Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates Median Home Value, Adjusted for Inflation Home values on Long Island have dropped. $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $550,000 $450,000 $400,000 2005 2008 2017 2011 2014 2017 Median home value Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates nextLI nextLI 28 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Share of Renter-Occupied Units Long Island lags behind New York City and New York State in rental unit occupancy. 100% 80% 60% 80% 40% Long Isla Lo a and: 80 0.48% 20% 0% NYC Long NYS Island Owner occupied Long Island Renter occupied Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates Share of Families Living Below Poverty Long Island has a lower percentage of families living below the poverty line than the United States and New York State. Since 2010, poverty has grown slightly on Long Island, but has dropped in both New York City and the United States. 14% 12% 10% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2007 2009 Long Island 2011 2017 New York 2013 2015 2017 United States Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates 29 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Share of Individuals Living Below Poverty Long Island has a lower percentage of individuals below the poverty line than the United States and New York State. Since 2010, poverty has grown slightly on Long Island, but has dropped in both the U.S. and NYS. 16% 14% 12% 14% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2007 2009 2011 Long Island 2017 New York 2013 2015 2017 United States Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates Share of Households Receiving Food Stamps Long Island has a lower percentage of households receiving food stamps than the United States and New York State. Since 2010, use of food stamps has grown slightly on Long Island and New York, but has dropped in the U.S. 20% 15% 10% 15% 2014: 2 0 : 15 15. 1 5..6% 5 2015 15: 12 15 12.84% 8 % 5% 20 010 0 10: 4.5 52% 52 2 0% 2007 2009 Long Island 2011 2017 New York 2013 2015 2017 United States Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates nextLI 30 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES Annual Rail Ridership, Indexed to 2010 Since 2010, Long Island Rail Road ridership has grown the fastest among the regional rails, by 27 percent, while Metro-North ridership grew by 6 percent. New Jersey Transit has grown by 22 percent. 130 120 110 100 90 2010 2012 Metro North 2016 2014 NJ Transit 2016 LIRR Source: National Transit Database (NTD) Annual Bus Ridership, Indexed to 2010 Since 2010, bus ridership in Nassau County has dropped by 19 percent and in Suffolk County by 35 percent. 110 100 90 100 80 70 60 2010 2012 2016 2014 2016 Suffolk County Transit Westchester County Bee-Line System New Jersey Transit Corporation Nassau Inter County Express Source: National Transit Database (NTD) 31 WHAT DO THEY THINK? PERSPECTIVES & ATTITUDES nextLI Total Vehicle Registrations Car registrations continue to grow on Long Island, while New York State’s went down. 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 6,000,000 2014: 14 10,903,620 03 4,000,000 2,000,000 201 2012 2 012 01 21: 2, 2: 2,196,223 2,1 2 ,196,223 96,22 96 ,22 22 2,33 2 20 012 0 012: 1,978,392 823 0 2007 2010 Long Island 2016 New York City 2013 2016 New York State Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Association (FHWA) Share of Population By Health Insurance Coverage In 2017, Long Island had fewer residents without insurance than New York City and New York State. LI also had more private insurance coverage than NYC and NYS. 100% 80% 60% 80% 40% 14.36% 15.07% 26.36% 34.26% 12.56% 9.48% 65.56% 2 2% 53.62% Private r in nsura n ance a 48.54% 20% Ne ew York State: 53.62% 0% Long Island No insurance 7.3% 6.48% New NewYork YorkState City New York State Private insurance MEDICARE MEDICAID Other government insurance Source: American Community Survey, 2017 via IPUMS USA nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 32 The survey: Will they stay or come back? When faced with the question whether to leave or not, both my wife and I chose to raise our daughter on Long Island. However, what used to be a simple decision has become more complex in recent years as disparate economic, social, and environmental pressures increasingly mount. Richard Murdocco, 32, Commack The survey asked this generation to rate everything they like and dislike about Long Island – and their answers can be useful when crafting public policy about Long Island’s future. Are they proud to be Long Islanders? Do they see a bright future here? Will they plant roots on Long Island and stay? These are all essential questions. The survey also took the first-ever pulse of young adults who were born on Long Island but currently live in the five boroughs of New York City. Do their views of their home region differ from those who stayed? Will they return? To read full essay, visit NEXT.NEWSDAY.COM WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 33 nextLI Likes and Dislikes Universally, parks/beaches/outdoors is the most-liked aspect of Long Island among all races and income levels of those who live here. Their second and third picks, however, diverged a bit based on race: HISPANICS ASIANS Safety and food culture Safety and access to quality education BLACKS WHITES Quiet/subdued noise levels and ease of access to shopping/hobbies Ease of access to shopping/hobbies and access to quality education More results While Asians followed by Hispanics and Blacks reported liking Long Island’s diversity, only 12 percent of Whites rated it as an asset. The top dislike is the same among all groups in this generation – housing costs. This was followed by overall affordability and ease of transportation. These shared and strong grievances are not different from those voiced by older generations. But this age group has fewer barriers to leaving and starting lives elsewhere. nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 34 Long Island’s Future In 2017, the percentage of Long Island’s population ages 55 and older rose by 16 percent, while that of ages 34 and younger dropped. A series of questions in the survey aimed to determine whether the younger generation sees a future here. Are you proud to say you are from Long Island? 85 percent say they are. More of those who are Hispanic and in the age group between 20 and 24 are the proudest. Lower-income and less-educated residents are less likely to say so. Is the future of Long Island bright? 62 percent surveyed say yes. 75 percent of Asians and 70 percent of Hispanics are optimistic about the future, while Whites and Suffolk County residents have the dimmest outlook for Long Island’s future. Income has no impact on this point of view. WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 35 nextLI Long Island’s Future If you’re planning to buy a home in the next five years, where are you most likely to purchase? 44 percent overall say they would buy here. Asians are the least likely to buy on Long Island followed by Blacks. Half of all Whites and Hispanics would buy here. 15 percent of those with post-graduate degrees say they would buy homes in New York City. NO 45% Plan to Buy? YES 55% Where? 44% LONG ISLAND 9% NEW YORK CITY 5% UPSTATE NEW YORK 3% SUBURBS EXCLUDING LONG ISLAND 3% NEW JERSEY 18% 18% OTHER NOT SURE How would you rate Long Island as a place to raise children? Overwhelmingly, 85 percent of young adults say Long Island is an excellent or good place to raise kids. Wealthier and more-educated groups are even more positive about raising children here. Among the groups, Blacks are the most negative about raising kids on Long Island. nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 36 Leaving Long Island In possibly the most consequential finding of our survey, only 4 in 10 members of this generation expect to live on Long Island when they retire. 67% $50,000 to $90,000 plan to move to a place that is more affordable in the next five years. Less than $50,000 WHITE 62% very or somewhat likely to move NON-WHITES 76% 71% very or somewhat likely to move very or somewhat likely to move 65% very or somewhat likely to move $100,000 or more 64% very or somewhat likely to move One in four said they love Long Island and would never leave. Blacks surveyed are the most interested in leaving, while Asians are the most interested in staying. The biggest reason for leaving? The cost of living. Know someone who moved away BECAUSE OF COST Know someone who moved awaY 58% 81% WILL WILLTHEY THEYSTAY STAYOR ORCOME COMEBACK? BACK 37 NextLI nextLI Long Island Natives Living in New York City It’s a common story: The kids leave for college and don’t come back. But why? To find out, we surveyed 18- to 34-year-olds who were born on Long Island but currently live in the five New York City boroughs. It turns out this group isn’t fed up with the suburbs that spawned them; it’s quite the opposite. They actually hold more favorable views about Long Island when compared with Long Islanders in this age group who live here, consistently answering more positively. Future of Long Island is bright? NYCers 78% LI on right track for environmentally sustainable future? LI has enough 21st century jobs? NYCers NYCers 76% AGREE 63% AGREE LIers 62% AGREE AGREE LIers 56% AGREE LIers 48% AGREE nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 38 Will they return? The survey asked what these individuals value in a community, and they list diversity, renewable energy and farm-to-table foods. The region lacks some of this. In all cases, respondents express more interest in change than current Long Island residents. What’s important? 88% Living in a place that supports small business and independent stores 87% Living within a short commute of a train station or bus stop 85% Living close to a vibrant and pedestrian-friendly downtown 85% Living in a place where you do not have to rely on a car to get around 82% 79% Racial and ethnic diversity in your neighborhood Access to a renewable energy source such as solar or wind to power your home 75% 74% Access to farm-to-table restaurants/locally sourced food Living in a place that is known for being artistic and creative WILL WILLTHEY THEYSTAY STAYOR ORCOME COMEBACK? BACK 39 NextLI nextLI Here’s a look at how native Long Islanders now living in NYC compare with those on Long Island. Current Long Islanders Current New York City Residents • Less likely to hold at least a 4-year degree compared with current New York City residents. • More likely to be civically engaged compared with current Long Island residents. • Less supportive of housing policy changes compared with current New York City residents. • More likely to think ride-sharing could replace owning a car than current Long Island residents. Both groups positively rate LI as a good place to raise kids nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 40 It’s too expensive Why won’t they return? The top reason preventing their return is not all that surprising – “it’s too expensive.” Other big barriers are the lack of professional opportunities and that their friends no longer live here. 22% Lack of professional opportunities Too suburban 10% 8% 6% Family issues 5% My friends no longer live here It’s not It’s noconvenient convenient Access to colleges and universities Neighborhoods felt segregated Not enough housing options Don’t want to own a car Congested traffic 5% Lack of things to do 4% Too far from the airport / major transit systems 8% 5% 9% 5% 8% 5% WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 41 nextLI INDICATORS DATA DIVE See how our survey topics compare with national numbers. An economic indicator is a data point used to interpret and help judge the overall health of an economy. It’s a snapshot based on government-collected numbers analyzed to see how a region, in this case Long Island, compares with both itself and other places nearby and nationally over time. Life Expectancy Average life expectancy on Long Island is 82.37 years, slightly higher than in New York City and many surrounding areas. 85 80 75 80 70 Northe ern e rn n NJ: 80 0.56 Northe ern e n NJ NJ: 75.2 28 65 60 55 Long Island Hudson Valley Southwestern New York City CT 1990 Northern NJ Southwestern CT 2014 Source: Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation nextLI WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 42 Difference in Life Expectancy People with household incomes less than $38,000 typically live five years less than those with incomes greater than $100,000. On Long Island it’s 5.24 years. 7 6 5 6.5 Southwestern n CT: C : 6.67 4 3 Long Island Hudson Valley Southwestern New York City CT Northern NJ Southwestern CT Source: Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation Share of Population Living in Very Walkable Neighborhoods More residents in Nassau County live in walkable neighborhoods than those in Suffolk County. 100% 80% 60% 80% 40% New Yorrrk k City: 91 1% % 20% 0% Hudson Valley Nassau County Nassau County Suffolk County New York City Source: Walkscore; walkscore.com WILL THEY STAY OR COME BACK? 43 nextLI School Poverty: Percent of Students Receiving Free or Reduced-Priced Lunch The percentage of students receiving this in high-poverty schools dropped in 2017, but still 78 percent of students in high-poverty schools receive free or reduced-priced lunch. 100% 80% 60% 80% 40% 20% Mid-poverty Mid poverty t schools in 2012: 14.92% 14.92% .9 9 % 0% 2001 2005 Low-poverty schools 2017 2009 Mid-poverty schools 2013 2017 High-poverty schools Source: NYS Department of Education Share of Children Under 5 Enrolled in Preschool or Nursery School Children below the poverty line in Suffolk County are the least likely to be enrolled compared with Nassau County, New York City and New York State. 40% 35% 30% 35% 25% 20% 15% New w York k stattte: 22.2% 10% Nassau County Suffolk County New York state New York City Enrolled (in poverty) New York State Enrolled (above poverty) Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year-Estimates nextLI CONCLUSIONS 44 CONCLUSIONS Long Island’s next generation will determine the future of the nation’s first suburb. This well-educated group says it enjoys the natural beauty and benefits of the region and is very optimistic about its future. But there is no guarantee these young adults will put down roots in the region they proudly call home, or remain here when they retire, unless it changes to meet their lifestyle needs. In the first comprehensive survey of Nassau and Suffolk residents ages 18 to 34, nextLI sought to provide a snapshot of their views on public policy issues. The data points create a picture that is clear, familiar and challenging: Taxes are too high, and more varied and less-expensive housing must be built. This generation strongly supports the types of zoning changes that would allow for the development of microapartment-type dormitory housing, multi-family units, and mixed-use and accessory apartments. Change is already being seen in the rebirth in villages across the Island. Our younger population is becoming more diverse by race and ethnicity, as more Hispanics and Asians migrate here, one of the main reasons the region is not declining in population. Younger residents generally are welcoming of this evolving multicultural environment, expressing support for more diversity in their schools and communities. This next generation told us it has a strong interest in participating in its civic life and taking leadership roles in their communities. The sooner they do so, the faster the innovation and transformation they want will happen. THE TEAM 45 nextLI The Team Rita Ciolli Amanda Fiscina DIRECTOR PROJECT MANAGER OUTREACH AND ENGAGEMENT MANAGER rita.ciolli@newsday.com amanda.fiscina@newsday.com coralie.saint-louis@newsday.com Kai Teoh Michael Cusanelli DATA JOURNALIST jun-kai.teoh@newsday.com Coralie Saint-Louis DIGITAL PRODUCTION MANAGER michael.cusanelli@newsday.com Community Advisory Board The nextLI Community Advisory Board is made up of thought leaders across the region from a wide range of industries. The committee members are asked to use their unique expertise and experiences to help us identify the issues facing Long Island, to refine our research, to guide our deliberations and to spread nextLI’s mission to each of their networks. Ayesha Alleyne Matthew Aracich EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, WYANDANCH HOMES & PROPERTY DEV. CORP. PRESIDENT, BUILDING TRADES COUNCIL OF NASSAU AND SUFFOLK Kelley Coughlan Ernest D’Ambrose SENIOR DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, TRITEC NORTHWELL/SUFFOLK NEXTGEN COUNCIL Ruth Douzinas-Smith Retha Fernandez ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEER, ARTIST, AND ENTREPRENEUR, PARTNER OF TRIREME CONSULTING AND A BOARD MEMBER OF THE RAUCH FOUNDATION PROJECT DIRECTOR, STATE OF BLACK LI, URBAN LEAGUE OF LONG ISLAND Dave Kapell Bob Keeler FORMER GREENPORT MAYOR, CONSULTANT TO THE RAUCH FOUNDATION FORMER NEWSDAY REPORTER AND EDITORIAL WRITER John S. Nader Thomas Rogers PRESIDENT, FARMINGDALE STATE COLLEGE SUPERINTENDENT, SYOSSET CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT Yacov Shamash ELECTRICAL/COMPUTER ENGINEERING PROFESSOR, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANT 46 Thanks The launch of nextLI required the guidance of many minds and the work of many hands. Our team thanks you for the enthusiasm that inspired us and the generous advice that informed us. A grant from The Rauch Foundation allows us to continue publishing original research that was the core mission of its Long Island Index. We appreciate the kindness and wisdom of its president, Nancy Rauch Douzinas, board member John Treiber and Managing Director Patricia Schaefer, who guided us throughout the first year. We are especially grateful to Ann Golob, former director of the Long Island Index, for her trust, and to Ravi Ramkeesoon for help with transitioning the Index. Thanks also to our research team at YouGov: Amy Emmatty, Roy Persson and Erick Meszaros-Jones; our consultant, Stony Brook Professor Leonie Huddy; VectorLoft of Lake Ronkonkoma for our beautifully designed inaugural publication; Regional Plan Association’s Chris Jones and Ellis Calvin for graciously collaborating; and to Ryan Pitts and the News Nerdery community for their help with census reporting. Sometimes it takes a village, sometimes an entire media group. The support from our colleagues at Newsday is foundational to all we do. Newsday Owner and President Pat Dolan and Publisher Debby Krenek are steadfast in their support and resources, Editor Debbie Henley offers encouragement and Data Editor Tim Healy gives guidance and always has an open door. Editorial Board: Eli Reyes, Michael Dobie, Lawrence Striegel for having our backs. Randi F. Marshall, Lane Filler, Matt Davies, Mark Chiusano. Victoria Rigney-Ramirez for administrative support. Community Affairs: Paul Fleishman, Kim Como Finance: Rob Fiore, Karen Ann Murray, Tyler Wojcik Web Design and Development: Dennis Elder, Matthew Cassella, Anthony Carrozzo, TC McCarthy, John Tomanelli, Will Welch Marketing and Social: Royston Wilson, Rich Forestano, Mark Demofsky, Gabriella Vukelic Research: Patrick Tornabene, Monica Sanchez Legal: Dina Sforza, Josh Wueller Printing: Frank Cutrone, Al Motis, Jason Hark, Steve Krach, Tom Schiavone, Kevin Davis Our discussions with The Rauch Foundation began in 2016, and Sam Guzik was instrumental in conceptualizing the project and shepherding our proposal. Former Newsday Co-Publisher Edward Bushey provided his financial acumen and support. Both were instrumental to the creation of nextLI. New conversations are starting daily. Discuss Long Island’s future at next.newsday.com. Join us Appreciation to Kevin Law and the Long Island Association for hosting this special event. Powered by Newsday. Funded by a charitable project grant from The Rauch Foundation. For additional copies of this booklet, please contact nextLI@newsday.com