Telephone Survey of City of Fresno Voters Re: Sales Tax Ballot Measure Feasibility Conducted for: The Trust for Public Land November, 2016 Methodology  Telephone survey of voters in the City of Fresno  Voters who were registered, but didn’t vote in the last 4 statewide elections (prior to this November) were excluded  Conducted by trained, professional interviewers from November 15–20, 2016  503 completed interviews  Margin of error: + 4.4 percentage points  Where applicable, results compared with FM3 Survey of Fresno Voters, March 2015, 600, MoE + 4.0% Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. 16-6192 Fresno Parks 2 Key Findings  A majority of Fresno voters are happy with the direction of the area and rate the quality of life in Fresno positively.  Local crime, the economy and public education are top concerns.  While maintaining high-quality parks and recreation is a priority to most, many voters indicate that Fresno’s parks are run down.  Many of voters’ top priorities for parks and recreation are centered on maintaining and improving parks and making them safer and cleaner.  A local 1/8 cent sales tax for clean, safe parks appears feasible in a future election. Just over two-thirds solidly support such a measure today.  High-propensity voters – those who are most likely to vote in a lowturnout election – are less supportive than low-propensity voters. 16-6192 Fresno Parks 3 Issue Environment Direction of Fresno More than half of voters in Fresno are feeling optimistic. Right Direction 59% Wrong Track 26% Don't Know 15% Q4. Do you feel that things in Fresno are going in the right direction or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? 16-6192 Fresno Parks 5 Quality of Life Rating A majority rate the quality of life in Fresno positively. Excellent Good (Don’t Know/Refused) 60% 2016 2015* 9% 14% Only Fair Poor 39% 51% 1% 50% Q5. Generally speaking, how would you rate Fresno as a place to live: is it an excellent place to live, a good place, only fair, or a poor place to live? *Data from Poll conducted by FM3 31% 1% 30% 8% 6% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 6 Park Accessibility The percentage of respondents that report living close to a park is similar to citywide estimates on the percentage of residents that actually do. Estimated actual percentage of Fresno residents that live within a 10-minute walk to a local, usable public park* Do you live within a 10-minute walk to a local, usable public park? Yes 61% 54% No 36% *Source: http://parkscore.tpl.org/ 16-6192 Fresno Parks 7 Park Access, by Geography Voters in the northern part of the city are more likely to report that they have a park nearby. Fresno City Council Districts % Yes Northern (CCD 2 & 6) (43%) Central (CCD 1, 7 & 4) (35%) Southern (CCD 3 & 5) (22%) 71% 55% 51% Q49. Do you live within a 10-minute walk to a local, usable public park? 16-6192 Fresno Parks 8 Park Access, by Income Higher household income is associated with better access to parks. % Yes <$50K (41%) 57% $50-99K (26%) 67% $100K+ (16%) (DK/Ref) (16%) Q49. Do you live within a 10-minute walk to a local, usable public park? 72% 50% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 9 Top Priorities All priorities tested are important to a majority, but reducing crime, the economy and public education top the list. 7 : Highest Priority Improving job creation and the economy 54% Reducing air and water pollution 52% Maintaining high-quality parks, trails, and recreational services Preserving open space and natural areas Limiting local taxes and fees 14% 57% Improving public education Total 5 69% Reducing neighborhood crime Reducing traffic and repairing local streets and roads 6 19% 14% 18% 15% 36% 21% 32% 16% 14% 21% 20% 17% 26% 28% 17% 25% 89% 88% 81% 79% 27% 28% Q6-Q13. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority you think that item should be for Fresno. Please use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority. 9% 92% 78% 71% 70% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 10 Tax Dollars for Parks An overwhelming majority says parks and recreation are a good use of taxes, while over a majority indicate they trust the Parks department with their tax dollars. Strongly agree Public parks and recreation facilities are a good use of taxpayer money. I trust the City Parks Department to properly manage tax dollars. Somewhat agree (Don't know) 45% 14% Somewhat disagree 39% 43% Q16-Q18: Now, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements. 7% Strongly disagree 1%8% 7% 21% 15% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 11 Fresno Parks Attitude A majority agree that Fresno parks are in bad shape. “Fresno parks are run-down, deteriorating and unsafe.” Strongly agree 2016 2015* 26% 36% Somewhat agree (Don't know) 38% 27% Q15: Now, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements. *Data from Poll conducted by FM3 Somewhat disagree 6% 6% Strongly disagree 22% 21% 7% 11% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 12 Tax Hesitancy Half of voters are hesitant to support new taxes. Strongly agree Taxes in this area are already high enough; I’ll vote against any tax increase. 30% Somewhat agree (Don't know) 20% Q16: Now, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements. 6% Somewhat disagree 22% Strongly disagree 22% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 13 Revenue Measure Feasibility Initial Vote on Sales Tax Measure Initial support is above two-thirds. To provide clean, safe neighborhood parks for all Fresno residents; reduce crime and homelessness in parks; ensure accessibility for persons with disabilities; update and maintain playgrounds, play areas, and swimming pools; maintain and improve recreational programs for youth and seniors; provide additional parks and trails; and improve walking and biking access to parks, shall the City of Fresno levy a one-eighth cent sales tax, for 10 years, raising approximately $13 million annually, exclusively for Fresno parks and recreation? Yes 73% Lean 4% Solid 69% No 24% Lean 1% Yes Solid 24% Undecided 3% No Undecided Q14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 16-6192 Fresno Parks 15 Sales Tax Measure Initial Support, by Subgroup Support is especially high among women, younger voters and voters with children. % Solid Yes Male (45%) Female (55%) %Lean Yes 66% 71% 18-39 (31%) % Total Yes 4% 70% 3% 75% 77% 4% 81% 40-64 (43%) 66% 3% 69% 65+ (26%) 65% 5% 70% Children in HH (34%) No Children in HH (66%) Park within 10-min walk (61%) Park not within 10-min walk (39%) 73% 67% 70% 68% Q14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 4% 77% 4% 71% 3% 73% 5% 72% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 16 Sales Tax Measure Initial Support, by Subgroup Voters who are most likely to vote in low-turnout elections are least supportive. % Solid Yes % Lean Yes Democrat (46%) Republican (35%) NPP/Other (19%) Low-propensity voter (Voted 0-3/6) (52%) Mid-propensity voter (Voted 4-5/6) (23%) High-propensity voter (Voted 6/6) (25%) %Total Yes 75% 60% 2% 77% 5% 66% 70% 73% 68% 61% Q14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 5% 75% 4% 77% 2% 70% 5% 67% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 17 Sales Tax Measure Initial Support, by Subgroup Renters are more supportive of the measure than homeowners. % Solid Yes %Lean Yes Latino (28%) 70% White (45%) 69% Other (27%) 68% Homeowner (54%) Renter/Other (46%) HH Income <$50K (41%) HH Income $50K-$99K (26%) $100K+ (16%) 65% 74% 72% 66% 72% Q14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? % Total Yes 2% 72% 6% 76% 1%69% 5% 69% 3% 77% 2% 74% 6% 72% 4% 76% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 18 Sales Tax Measure Initial Support, by Geography Residents in the Southern part of Fresno are more supportive. % Yes Northern (CCD 2 &6) (43%) Central (CCD 1, 7 & 4) (35%) Southern (CCD 3 & 5) (22%) %Lean Yes 64% 71% 76% Total Fresno City Council Districts 4% 68% 5% 76% 3% 79% Q14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 16-6192 Fresno Parks 19 Maintain, Improve, Expand While nearly a third of voters indicate that they would like to see new parks and trails, the majority prioritize maintenance and improvement of existing parks. 69% 20% 9% Maintaining and Expanding the improving number of current parks, trails parks, trails and and facilities facilities (Both) Q19. Which of the following should be the highest priority for Fresno parks over the next ten years? 3% (Neither/Don't Know) 16-6192 Fresno Parks 20 Top Tier Measure Components In a long list of potential measure components, many of the top priorities focus on making parks safer and cleaner. 7: Very Important Reduce crime and homelessness in parks 6 5 Total Important 71% 14% 8% 93% Ensure park facilities are accessible to persons with disabilities 60% 18% 14% 92% Prevent graffiti and vandalism in local parks 62% 16% 14% 91% Maintain and improve after-school programs and recreation for children and youth 56% Update and maintain park bathrooms 57% Provide clean, safe neighborhood parks for all Fresno residents 57% Update and maintain playground equipment and play areas 52% Q20-Q33: Now I'm going to read you a list of some of the projects and priorities for Fresno parks and recreation. On a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 is not important at all and 7 is very important, please tell me how important each of the items is to you. 18% 19% 16% 20% 15% 89% 13% 89% 15% 89% 15% 88% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 21 Measure Components: Priorities for Children Updating playgrounds and after-school programs are particularly important for voters with kids at home. Update and maintain playground equipment and play areas Overall Children in HH No Children in HH 7: Very Important 6 52% 20% 59% 49% 5 Maintain and improve after-school programs and recreation for children and youth Total 7: Very Important 15% 88% Overall 17% 12% 89% Children in HH 21% 17% 87% No Children in HH Q20-Q33: Now I'm going to read you a list of some of the projects and priorities for Fresno parks and recreation. On a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 is not important at all and 7 is very important, please tell me how important each of the items is to you. 56% 61% 53% 6 18% 5 Total 15% 89% 17% 13% 91% 19% 17% 88% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 22 Additional Measure Information Providing recreation to help keep kids busy and out of trouble, and improving safety at local parks are among the most convincing reasons to support a measure. Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing Total Convincing This measure will improve safety at all our parks by adding safety lighting, installing security cameras, & reducing the # of homeless people in local parks. 51% 33% This measure will help continue after-school activities…& other recreational programming for children...to help them...keep busy & out of trouble. 51% 35% This measure is needed to bring our parks...up to current health & safety standards, including...access for people w/disabilities. 48% 37% 84% 86% 85% ...parks in some parts of Fresno...lack adequate facilities...This measure will ensure that all...neighborhoods have...parks for kids to play in. 45% 38% 83% This measure is a good investment...Maintaining quality parks...will...maintain our community as a desirable place to live, work, & raise a family. 45% 38% 83% This measure will include an independent citizen oversight committee...ensure that funds are only spent on Fresno parks maintenance and improvements. 45% Q34-Q45. Next I’d like to read you statements from people who support a 1/8 cent sales tax measure for Fresno Parks. After each one, please tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to vote for a measure – very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing. 36% 81% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 23 Additional Measure Information, cont. All messages tested are convincing reasons to support a measure; a message that explains the annual cost is convincing to over two-thirds. Very Convincing Updating our parks & providing walking trails...This measure will make sure all residents...have safe places to get out of the house to play or exercise. Some of Fresno’s public pools are rundown...This measure will upgrade swimming pools...to ensure we have places to escape the heat in the hot summer. Somewhat Convincing 44% 40% 41% This measure is a modest investment to upgrade and maintain parks in Fresno. It is estimated to cost an average of $13 a year per household. 37% By passing this measure, Fresno will be able to leverage additional State and Federal funds for local parks. 36% Total Convincing 84% 41% 36% 36% Fresno’s soccer and sports fields are littered with...problems. This measure will make our fields usable so that everyone...can have a turn. 33% 42% Funds...will help maintain and improve access to the San Joaquin River Parkway so that all Fresno residents can enjoy the natural beauty our area offers. 33% 39% Q34-Q45. Next I’d like to read you statements from people who support a 1/8 cent sales tax measure for Fresno Parks. After each one, please tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to vote for a measure – very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing. 81% 73% 72% 75% 72% 16-6192 Fresno Parks 24 Vote After Information After more information is presented, total support increases to 76%. Yes 76% Yes 73% Lean 2% Lean 4% Solid 69% No 24% Lean 1% Solid 24% Yes Solid 75% Lean 1% Undecided 3% NoVote Undecided Initial No 20% Solid 19% Undecided 3% Yes Undecided Vote After No Information Q46: Given what you’ve heard, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject a measure that reads… If the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject this measure? 16-6192 Fresno Parks 25 After Opposition An opposition statement diminishes support for the measure. Opponents of this measure say that taxes are already too high, the city has been near bankruptcy and cannot be trusted with our money. Families are struggling and cannot afford to pay even more in taxes, and a sales tax increase will just damage our local economy. Yes 76% Yes 73% Yes 68% Lean 2% Lean 4% Solid 69% Lean 2% No 24% Solid 75% Lean 1% Solid 24% Undecided 3% Initial Vote No 20% Lean 1% Solid 19% Solid 66% No 29% Lean 1% Undecided 3% Vote After Information Q47: Given what you’ve heard, if the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the 1/8 cent sales tax measure for Fresno Parks? Solid 28% Undecided 3% Vote After Opposition 16-6192 Fresno Parks 26 Vote Progression by Vote Propensity Support is consistently highest among low propensity voters, while support among higher-propensity voters dips below the two-thirds threshold after a short opposition statement. Low-propensity voter (Voted 0-3/6) (52%) Mid-propensity voter (Voted 4-5/6) (23%) High-propensity voter (Voted 6/6) (25%) 85% 77% 70% 67% 68% 73% 64% 67% 61% Total Yes Initial Vote Total Yes After Information Total Yes After Opposition 16-6192 Fresno Parks 27 Conclusions/Recommendations  Most voters say that parks are a good use of taxpayer dollars, and many prioritize maintenance and improvements of existing parks.  Reducing crime is a top priority for most Fresno voters, and making parks cleaner and safer would be an extremely important component of a potential revenue measure.  A sales tax measure for clean, safe parks appears feasible, but election timing and outreach will be important – infrequent, younger voters are most likely to support a measure.  Although opposition messaging has a significant impact, a sales tax measure still appears feasible after voters hear an opposition message.  Building a strong coalition of support and a robust outreach and communications effort centered around making parks cleaner and safer is recommended. 16-6192 Fresno Parks 28 Contacts Ruth Bernstein 510-550-8922 ruth@emcresearch.com Jessica Polsky 510-550-8933 jessica@emcresearch.com Lue Williams 503-444-6005 lue@emcresearch.com 16-6192 Fresno Parks 29