What I’ve Learned about Redistricting – The Hard Way! NCSL National N ti l Redistricting R di t i ti Seminar S i Gaylord Center, National Harbor, MD Jan ar 24, January 24 2011 Thomas B. Hofeller, Redistricting Coordinator Republican National Committee Basic Laws of Redistricting • Whether done with colored maps on the floor, f • or high-speed g p computers, p , • it ALWAYS brings out the worst in e er one! everyone! • And A d it’ it’s never d done on ti time!! On Politics & Coalition Building • Just like 19th Century British foreign policy – No p permanent allies – No permanent enemies – Only permanent interests • Self S lf iinterest t t binds, bi d honor h d doesn’t. ’t On the Nature off the Process •N Nothing thi iis ever exactly tl the th way you expect. y p • So expect the unexpected. Getting Ready You don?t want to ?nd yourselves like this! Palish Air area in WWII Getting g Readyy • Knowledge is power. • Know your state! • You can learn many lessons from l decade’s last d d ’ process. Special Information you need b f before line-drawing l d bbegins: • Try to find out what each l i l t ’ objectives legislator’s bj ti are. • Where Where’ss Waldo? • Identify y special p interest ggroups p that are important stakeholders. Getting g to Know the State • Print out detailed maps in advance and STUDY • Create a district outline maps p and study y the deviations • Identif Identify the shifts of territor territory & population for a “least-changes” plan. • Study regional population shifts. Another Basic Law of Redistricting Blessed are they Whose districts are in the corners Getting g to Know the State • Identify the instances of fracturing & packing contained in the present plan. • Draw a “Good Government” plan. • Draw more practice plans. Getting g to Know the State • Identify areas of future residential development • Find out what objectives are possible. • Decide what types of plans you, or others, may wish to put out in public to make specific points. Check Out Your Computer p • Practice importing and exporting files. • Print out ALL the reports & check them. yp of maps. p • Print out all types • Devise standard types of maps you will be giving people. • Practice producing bills. • Practice “saving” and “restoring” plans. Computer p Perils • You can never back up too often. • Make sure your security is real • Make sure of the security of your printouts and plots. • Remember recent email disasters !!! Computer p Perils • Make sure your computer is in a PRIVATE location. location • Don’t walk awayy from it and leave your work exposed. • Save and log off if you’re going to be awayy for long. g Computer p Perils • Pay your technical people well. • Don’t “can” the staff until you’re sure redistricting is really over. over • Keep the system, system documents, documents and other material intact. Legal g Perils • NEVER travel without counsel. • “Loose Lips, Sink Ships.” • Remember R b ---- A jjourney tto g HELL starts with but a legal single misstatement OR a stupid email! Redistricting g Miranda Warningg • You have the right to an attorney. • If you cannot afford one….you one you are in deep trouble! • Anything you say may be used against you in a court of law law. Legal g Perils • Remember, the court record is already open. • Treat every statement and document as if it was going to appear on the FRONT PAGE of your local newspaper. • “Emails are the tool of the devil.” Use personal contact or a safe phone! Legal Perils El]? {111151} i?ng?m 11 ,1Ju5t YOU MIGHT WANT TO PUT THIS ON TOP OF YOUR MONITOR SCREEN Legal g Perils • Don’t get caught in “criteria hell”. • Make sure you know what is actually required by your constitution and statutes. • Make sure you can live by your own criteria BEFORE you state them publically. • Draw sample plans with them before finalizing the rules. Legal g Perils • Party control of the Justice Department and its Civil Rights g Division is an important factor -- it’s changed. • You must keep up on Voting Rights Law Law. – North Austin and §5 – Strickland and §2 § • How you seek §5 preclearance is important! – Three-judge panel in DC vs. DOJ When Actuallyy Drawingg Plans • Don’t start until you have a general idea of your objectives and how the plan will be put together. p , • Remember that deviations ARE important, even when “roughing” out a plan, don’t paint yourself into a corner. • Establish deviation checkpoints. • Save your work often. often You don don’tt have time to do it over again! When Actuallyy Drawingg Plans • Aim for absolute equality on congressional g districts. – The rule is “as equal as practicable”. • The plus or minus 5% rule for legislative districts is NOT a safe haven! – Read the latest case law. – Larios vs. Cox When Actuallyy Drawingg Plans • Don’t get “cute”. • Don’t let your own personal and political feelings interfere • Don Don’tt create stupid irregularities in boundaries. Who Drew This District Political Admonitions •L Legislators il and d members b off C Congress get REALLY nervous during the process • Most members assume the plan should originate from their own district district. • Expect some irrational choices. • Don’t play on the freeway. Political Admonitions • Remember that “bad news, unlike fine wine, does not age well.” • If bad news has to be given to a member,, let the attorneys y or outside experts deliver it – if possible. possible Political Admonitions • “Trust but verify” • Remember that members are usually unable to distinguish between theoretical and real plans. Don’t enlighten the innocent! Don’t reveal more than necessary. Another nothe Basic asic Law aw of Redistricting edist icting • Don’t bring g out the maps p until the END of a meeting. • Once they see maps, all other forms of communication WILL cease cease. These are Some# of the Things I’ve L Learned d about b t Redistricting R di t i ti – The Th Hard Way! # That I can tell about Major Issues This Cycle Major j Issues This Cycle y • Computer hardware and Software has “matured” – no exciting iti breakthroughs. b kth h • People, legal and database issues remain as difficult as ever. Major Issues This Cycle 1. Uncertainty of jurisprudence 2 §§ 2 and 5 of the VRA 2. 3. Just what is a minority district? 4. How to deal with citizen VAP 5 Larios (legislative deviations) 5. 6. Decline of polling polling--place voting 7. Prison “census adjustment” 8 Will the public really participate? 8. 9. Partisan ambivalence about reform Thank You