DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY 600 Likely Democratic caucus participants, including 433 in-person attenders and 167 virtual participants Margins of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for in-person attenders and ± 7.6 percentage points for virtual participants Study #2190 June 2-5, 2019 3,776 active registered voter contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. How interested are you in participating in the Democratic party caucuses to show your preference for presidential candidates—very interested, fairly interested, just somewhat interested, or not interested? (Terminate if not interested or not sure, but code age, sex, registered party, and congressional district data from sample.) Very interested Fairly interested Just somewhat interested Not interested Not sure In person 77 14 8 - - Virtual 40 28 32 - - This year the Democratic caucuses will be a little different. In addition to the regular meetings on caucus night, the Democratic Party of Iowa will convene virtual caucuses to take place online or by phone on several days leading up to the traditional, in-person caucus meetings on February 3rd. Do you think you would definitely participate in the 2020 caucuses—either in person or in a virtual caucus—probably participate, might or might not participate, or probably not participate? (Terminate if might or might not participate, probably not participate, or not sure, but code age, sex, registered party, and congressional district data from sample.) Definitely participate Probably participate Might or might not participate Probably not participate Not sure In person 62 38 - - - Virtual 32 68 - - - Here’s a little bit more information about how the virtual caucuses will work. The sessions will cover the same topics as in-person caucuses: party business and messages from candidates as well as collecting information on participants’ candidate preferences. No matter how many people participate this way, 10% of the total delegates from the state of Iowa will be allocated based on the results of the virtual caucuses, 90% will be based on the in-person caucuses. Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Do you think you will definitely or probably participate in person on caucus night, or definitely or probably participate in a virtual caucus, or do you now think you are unlikely to caucus at all? (Specify.) (Interviewer note: If respondent unsure of which type of caucus, ask:) Which is more likely? (Terminate if unlikely to caucus at all or not sure, but code age, sex, registered party, and congressional district data from sample.) Definitely attend in person Probably attend in person Definitely participate in virtual caucus Probably participate in virtual caucus In person 62 38 - - - - Virtual - - 32 68 - - __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 Unlikely to caucus at all Not sure Given what you happen to know about the Democratic Party’s plans for virtual caucuses, do you approve or disapprove of those plans, or don’t you know enough to say? Mostly approve Mostly disapprove Not sure In person 42 7 51 Virtual 45 1 54 Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both? Attended Republican caucus in the past Attended Democratic caucus in the past Attended both First caucus Not sure In person 4 72 7 17 - Virtual 3 39 5 52 - Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Net Fav Net Unf Very Mostly Mostly Very Not Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Michael Bennet, U.S. senator from Colorado In person 3 16 9 3 70 Virtual 2 19 4 1 75 Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States In person 34 38 14 10 4 Virtual 49 32 13 4 3 Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey In person 20 35 13 6 26 Virtual 17 43 10 1 29 Steve Bullock, governor of Montana In person 5 14 8 2 71 Virtual 3 9 5 1 82 Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana In person 32 29 7 5 26 Virtual 27 27 7 - 39 Julián Castro, former U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development In person 7 27 10 4 53 Virtual 3 24 8 2 63 Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York City In person 2 14 28 14 40 Virtual 1 15 22 7 54 In person 6 21 13 5 55 Virtual 4 20 6 2 68 John Delaney, former U.S. representative from Maryland __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 Net Fav Net Unf Very Mostly Mostly Very Not Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. representative from Hawaii In person 5 18 11 9 57 Virtual 3 15 7 6 69 Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York In person 7 31 18 6 39 Virtual 7 27 8 3 55 Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California In person 31 32 8 5 23 Virtual 25 40 4 3 28 John Hickenlooper, former governor of Colorado In person 6 18 12 4 61 Virtual 2 21 7 1 69 Jay Inslee, governor of the state of Washington In person 5 16 7 3 69 Virtual 2 18 4 1 75 Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota In person 12 32 14 4 38 Virtual 10 31 8 3 49 Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar, Florida In person 1 1 6 3 89 Virtual 1 2 3 1 93 Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts In person 3 9 8 3 77 Virtual 1 4 5 1 89 Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas In person 15 39 13 8 25 Virtual 19 41 12 4 25 Tim Ryan, U.S. representative from Ohio In person 2 14 10 4 70 Virtual 3 9 7 2 79 Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont In person 32 37 17 8 5 Virtual 32 44 14 6 4 Eric Swalwell, U.S. representative from California In person 5 17 9 4 65 Virtual 2 13 6 3 76 Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts In person 38 33 10 7 12 Virtual 29 41 11 8 11 Marianne Williamson, author and activist In person 2 7 11 7 73 Virtual 2 5 6 4 83 Andrew Yang, businessman In person 5 14 10 5 66 Virtual 3 9 10 2 76 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3 Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If None of these or Not sure in the first-choice question, record “No first choice” in second-choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) (Ask all.) I’m going to read the list one more time, excluding any names you may have already mentioned. This time, please tell me if the person is someone you are actively considering or not. Just answer yes or no. (Read list, excluding candidates respondent selected as first or second choice. Mark all yeses. Same order as first choice question. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) 90/10 Combined (MoE: ± 4.0 percentage points) Michael Bennet Joe Biden Cory Booker Steve Bullock Pete Buttigieg Julián Castro Bill de Blasio John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Wayne Messam Seth Moulton Beto O’Rourke Tim Ryan Bernie Sanders Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Marianne Williamson Andrew Yang None of these (VOL) Not sure No first choice 1 24 1 14 1 * 1 1 7 1 2 * 2 16 15 1 6 6 First Choice Second Choice Actively Considering In-person Virtual In-person Virtual In-person Virtual 1 23 1 15 1 * 1 6 1 2 * * 2 * 16 15 * 1 7 6 1 33 3 * 9 1 * 2 * 10 * 1 * 1 5 1 10 * 14 1 3 4 13 6 1 9 * 1 2 1 14 1 * 1 * * 4 11 1 14 1 2 5 13 * 17 5 * 10 * * * 1 1 14 1 1 3 * * 7 * 16 * 13 * 1 1 5 8 8 25 36 9 28 20 6 16 12 20 32 10 10 29 3 7 33 7 29 12 32 6 13 8 5 5 24 35 5 27 11 6 13 5 22 33 8 5 16 1 5 34 6 38 5 36 4 4 9 4 An asterisk indicated the candidate received no responses. A dash indicated at least one respondent selected the candidate, but the percentage rounded down to zero. __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 4 How would you describe your level of enthusiasm for your first-choice candidate [NAME INSERTED HERE]—are you extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, mildly enthusiastic, or not that enthusiastic? (Asked only of those who selected a candidate as first choice; n=377 for in person and n=153 for virtual. MoE: ± 5.1 percentage points for in person and ± 7.9 percentage points for virtual.) Extremely enthusiastic Very enthusiastic Mildly enthusiastic Not that enthusiastic Not sure In-person 36 48 14 2 1 Virtual 33 40 25 1 - Which is more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.) That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president who shares your positions on major issues In-person 65 31 4 Virtual 66 33 2 Not sure I’m going to mention positions some candidates have taken. I want to know whether the position is a make or break deal for your support. For each, please tell me if support for the position is a must-have for you, if you agree with the position but it’s not a must-have, or if you would oppose a candidate who took the position. (Rotate list.) Must-Have “Medicare for All,” shifting to a completely government-run health system Not MustHave Would Oppose Not Sure In-person 49 34 11 6 Free tuition to a public four-year college Virtual In-person 48 23 39 56 9 15 4 6 A proposal called the Green New Deal Virtual In-person 29 32 57 44 11 6 3 17 Broadly expanding student debt forgiveness Virtual In-person 35 42 42 46 4 9 18 4 A woman’s right to abortion Virtual In-person 48 79 43 12 6 4 3 4 Restoring the ban on assault-style weapons Virtual In-person 80 57 14 31 5 8 2 4 Virtual In-person 62 75 30 19 7 4 1 3 Virtual 76 23 20 53 3 16 2 8 In-person 18 21 63 58 14 12 5 8 Virtual 18 65 9 8 Recognition of climate change as the greatest threat to humanity Restoration of voting rights to all felons, regardless of the crime or whether they have completed their sentence Breaking up big tech companies In-person Virtual __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 5 Which of the following better describes your current view of potential impeachment proceedings against President Trump: (Rotate.) Democrats in Congress would be shirking their constitutional duty if they do not proceed with impeachment as soon as possible Do not investigate/don’t mention “impeachment” (VOL) Democrats in Congress should continue with investigations, but not move forward on formal impeachment proceedings Not sure In-person 42 48 2 7 Virtual 45 48 1 6 I’m going to mention some qualities that might be desirable in a candidate for president. Please tell me which ONE or TWO you consider the most important. (Read list. Rotate. Accept up to two responses. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) Integrity Leadership Toughness Intelligence Vision Charisma None of these (VOL) Electability Not sure In-person 56 34 4 40 18 6 25 - 1 Virtual 61 36 2 40 20 3 23 - 1 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 6 ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted June 2-5, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 600 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses. These 600 likely Democratic caucus participants were sorted into two discrete groups: 433 who say they plan to attend a caucus in person and 167 who say they plan to participate online or by telephone in a virtual caucus. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,776 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. Questions based on the sample of 433 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses in person have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Questions based on the sample of 167 voters likely to participate in a virtual caucus have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 7.6 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 7.6 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Because the proposed rules for the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses at the time this poll was conducted include a provision that the results of the in-person caucuses will account for 90 percent of delegate equivalents and the results of the virtual caucuses will account for 10 percent of the delegate equivalents, the first-choice candidate results of this poll have been reported out in three ways: 1) among likely in-person caucus attenders alone; 2) among likely virtual caucus participants alone; and 3) combined in a calculation that gives 90% weight to the preferences of the in-person attenders and 10% weight to the preferences of virtual participants. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited. __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 7