Using American Community Survey Estimates and Margins of Error April 18th, 2018 Sirius Fuller Decennial Statistical Studies Division U.S. Census Bureau 1 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 2 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 3 ACS Estimates • Every year, over 3.5 million housing unit addresses are contacted to participate in the ACS • ACS estimates are based on a sample of the population • Creates uncertainty in the data • For more information on ACS Design and Methodology, please visit: https://census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology.html 4 Availability of ACS Data Products Estimated Population of Geographic Area 65,000 or more 1-Year Estimates 1-Year Supplemental Estimates 5-Year Estimates X X X X X 20,000 to 64,999 Less than 20,000 X Planned Release Date September October https://census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html 5 December Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 6 What is the Margin of Error? Universe: Total population a ENE-201E Amen'oan Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Ta DIE View ll sacs TD sovmrc so senses Actions: 53 Modify Table ify Add-Remove Geographies Bookmark-?Save Print 33 Download Create .3 Mao - H'l Geo ra I'l Notes n: View Table Notes This table is displayed With default geographies. 0 3 GI 3" Choir Back to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the left Tell us what you think. Precise ?eecbsci: To help more American Community Sun's}- oata more use?ul for you. Although the American llIZorr:rnurnit:..I Survey.r produces population. demographic and housing unit estimates. it is the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the of?cial estimates of the population for the nation. states. counties. cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states arr-d counties. Versions of this 1% - - . table are available .. . Emma? 3mm!" "r Em": for the following 4'9 Total. 1s: me years: fa Male: 155-?65322 ??6.427 2015 It Under 5 years 151-154 [lid ?ll-3 T13 2015 5 to El years 2014 10 to 14 years 10.54? 421 I'i' DB: 2013 15to 1? years 6-43147D ?-2353 IE and 15 years 4.448 33? 14-4 3m 2011 It] years 2.428269 I #43313- 2010 El peers 2.385.?33 +l-11 Ti: zone so to 24 years +r.1s.rss 25 to 25 years it .t52 T52 to 34 years 10-?45353 44-1331 35 to '35 years I 9.983 2TB ?rt-15.406 United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov What is the Margin of Error? Universe: Total population a Amen'can Community Survey 5?Year Estimates Table View 1! TD ADVANCED season Actions: '53?'3 Modify Table ify Add-Remove Geographies Bookmark-?Save Print i3 Download Create .3 Mao l_l - n. This table rs displayed with default geographies. 9 3 View Geography Notes View Table Notes Eacl-z to Search to select other genera ohies using the search options on the left Tell us what you think. Promise 'eecbect: to date more American Community Serve,- oata more ose?ul for you. Although the American llIZorr:rnurnit:..I Survey.r produces population. demographic and housing unit estimates. it is the Census Elureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the official estimates of the populaticm for the nation. states. counties. cities and teams and estimates of housing units for states and counties. Versions of this - . tame are available 1_ Emma?: ?r for the following 4'9 Total. 1s: "m years: 40g Mate: era-#27 2015 t, Under 5 years 151154 [12:1 ant-3 2015 5 to 9 year?s MATHEWS #41153 2014 1G to 14 years 10.54? 421 as: 2013 I?to 1? years 6.431.4TD +r?2.ssa 2?11: IE and years 4.448 33? 14-4 3TB {rears 2.428.269 14-11313 2010 El years 2.335133 Ti: 22 to 24 years BJEDJENS #45153 25 ll] 25 years r1 TE: It: 34 years 10.?45353 +?3.33 35 to '35 years I ELEIEE: ars? United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov What is the Margin of Error? Universe: Total population 2012?2015 Ameiican Community Survey 5?Year Estimates EH11 DIM '1 ENE TD ADVAHC ED 5 EA HCH Ta hle 1Wally Actions: 33 Modify Table In"; Bookmark-?Save l_l Add-Remove Geographies Download Create a Map Print 3 View Geography Notes lit View Table Notes This table rs displayed with default geographies. a Eacl-z to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the left Tell us what you Ihinlr. Precise ?eechacr: to Hate more Anterrmn Community Survey oats more useiul for you. Although the American Community Survey produces population. demographic and housing unit estimates. it is the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the official estimates of the population for the nation. states. counties. cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states and counties. Versions of this - - tame are available 1 . Emma? ?r Err": for the futiowing 4s Total. 1s: "or years: Mate: +?43.42? 2015 t, Under 5 years D221 ant-3 T13 21115 5 to 9 years 2014 10 to 14 years ?lCLEutiT 421 IT DE: 2013 I?to 1? years 6.431431} ?-2.353 2&1: IE and 15! years. 4.443 33? 31D 21111 years 2.428.269 14-11313- 2010 El years 2.385133 Ti: 21mg 22 to 24 years BJEDJBB +f-15.153 25 to 25 years $1 .t52 T52 to 34 years +?3-33 35 to '35 years 9.983 are United States? U.S. Department of Commerce EHSUS Bureau Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov What is the Margin of Error? • Definition: An MOE is a measure of the possible variation of the estimate around the population value • At a given confidence level, the estimate and the actual population value will differ by no more than the value of the MOE • 90% confidence level is the Census Bureau Standard • ACS MOEs are provided in the same units as their respective estimates 10 What is the Margin of Error? 301831 SEE AGE Universe: Total population 2012?2015 Amen'can Community Survey 5?Year Estimates Ta hle 1latent Actions: '53?'3 Modify TatJle Add.-Remoye Geographies This table I3 displayed with default geographies. a In"; Boohm aria-?So ye l_l Earl-z to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the left Print Tell us what you Ihinlt. Precise ?eechacr: to Note more American Community Survey- o-ata more useiul for you. Download Create a Map '1 ENE TD ADVAHC ED 5 EA HCH 3?1 3 View Geography Notes View Table Notes [i Although the American Community Survey produces population. demographic and housing unit estimates. it is the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the of?cial estimates of the populatim for the nation. states. counties. cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states and counties. united tau; Versions of this - - . . tame are ayailahle 1 . Emma? 3mm!" ?r Err": for the foitowing 43 Total. 318-333 132 year427 2015 t, I Under 5 years [:24 44-3 T18 2D15 - - . - 2014 10 to t4 years 13-34? 421 IT 832 2013 t?to 1? years 3.431478 21112 13 and 18 years 4.443 33? 318 21111 it] years 2.423233 I +t-t3-313 2011] El years 2.383133 H-tt Ti: 2009 22 to 24 years #13138 25 to 23 years $1432 T32 a4-4 3t]: 3G to 34 years ttl?43.353 +t-3-331 35 to '35 years 3.333 2TB #43408 United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Ce nsus BUREAU Bureau census.gov Measures of Sampling Variability Variance (Calculated with estimate) Standard Error SE= Variance Margin of Error MOE = 1.645 x SE (Census Bureau Standard: 90 percent Confidence Level) 12 Alternate Confidence Levels Confidence Level Margin of Error (MOE) 90% 1.645 x SE 1.96 x SE 95% 99% Converting MOE to different confidence level: MOE95% confidence level 2.58 x SE 1.96 × MOE90% confidence level = 1.645 MOE90% confidence level = 1.96 × 1.645 13 Alternate Confidence Levels B01001 SEX BY AGE Universe: Total Population 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates United States Estimate Under 5 years Margin of Error 10,154,024 MOE95% confidence level = +/- 4,501 14 1.96 = × 3,778 1.645 +/-3,778 Alternate Confidence Levels B01001 SEX BY AGE Universe: Total Population 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates United States Estimate Under 5 years 10,154,024 MOE95% confidence level Confidence Level Margin of Error (MOE) 90% 1.645 x SE 95% 99% Margin of Error 1.96 = × 3,778 1.645 = +/- 4,501 MOE for Example Estimate +/- 3,778 1.96 x SE 2.58 x SE +/-3,778 +/- 4,501 15 +/- 5,925 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 16 Confidence Intervals Confidence Interval: (Estimate - MOE, Estimate + MOE) Geography Median Household Income ($) MOE ($) Block Group 1 37,284 +/- 20,922 Upper Bound = $37,284 + 20,922 = $58,206 Lower Bound = $37,284 – 20,922 = $16,362 Confidence Interval 90% : ($16,362, $58,206) 17 Why MOEs Matter Geography Median Household Income ($) Block Group 1 37,284 Block Group 2 42,797 Block Group 3 56,875 Block Group 4 66,725 Block Group 5 76,850 18 MOE ($) Why MOEs Matter Geography Median Household Income ($) MOE ($) Block Group 1 37,284 +/-20,922 Block Group 2 42,797 +/-21,305 Block Group 3 56,875 +/-20,956 Block Group 4 66,725 +/-32,137 Block Group 5 76,850 +/-47,200 19 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 20 What is Statistical Testing • Definition : A test to determine if a difference is unlikely to occur by chance • To be “statistically different”, there must be statistical evidence that there is a difference between two estimates • Testing should be conducted for all comparisons, both implicit and explicit 21 Statistical Testing Generic Z-score formula: 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸1 − 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸2 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 2 + 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 2 22 Statistical Testing S0201 SELECTED POPULATION PROFILE IN THE UNITED STATES 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Subject United States New York Total Population Total Population Estimate Margin of Error Estimate Margin of Error 25 to 34 years 13.7% +/-0.1 14.6% +/-0.1 35 to 44 years 12.6% +/-0.1 12.5% +/-0.1 45 to 54 years 13.2% +/-0.1 13.7% +/-0.1 55 to 64 years 12.8% +/-0.1 13.0% +/-0.1 65 to 74 years 8.9% +/-0.1 8.7% +/-0.1 75 years and over 6.4% +/-0.1 6.7% +/-0.1 Median age (years) 37.9 +/-0.1 38.4 +/-0.1 18 years and over 77.2% +/-0.1 78.8% +/-0.1 21 years and over 73.1% +/-0.1 74.7% +/-0.1 23 Statistical Testing Subject United States New York Total Population Total Population Estimate Median age (years) Margin of Error 37.9 +/-0.1 Estimate Margin of Error 38.4 +/-0.1 Step Process Result 1 Take the difference of the estimates 2 Take the absolute value of step 1 37.9 – 38.4 = -0.5 3 Square the MOEs 4 Add the squared MOEs together 24 -0.5 = abs(-0.5) = 0.5 0.12 = 0.01 0.12 = 0.01 0.01 + 0.01 = 0.02 Statistical Testing Step Process Result 5 Take the square root of the sum 6 Divide step 2 by step 5 7 Compare result to 1.0 0.02 ≈ 0.141 0.5 / 0.141 = 3.55 3.55 > 1.0 If the result is greater than 1.0, then the estimates are statistically different at the 90% confidence level 25 Statistical Testing Generic Z-score formula: 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸1 − 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸2 Example: 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 2 + 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 2 37.9 − 38.4 0.1 2 + 0.1 26 2 = 3.55 Statistical Testing This method is used for: • Any type of estimate (count, percent, median, rate, etc.) • Between years • Not between single-year and multi-year estimates • Between non-overlapping multi-year periods • Across geographic areas • Between surveys (e.g. ACS vs Census) • To check ACS/ Census compatibility, visit: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/comparing-acs-data.html 27 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 28 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 29 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 30 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 31 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 32 Statistical Testing Tool https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/statistical-testing-tool.html 33 ACS Comparison Profile Year to Year Change EUMPARATWE SDCIAL CHARACTERISTIES IN THE UNITED STATES 2012?2013 American Community Survey 5?Year Estimates Table View '1 BACK SEARCH Actions: Modify Table 4, Addu'Remove Geographies Bookmark."Saye Print Download Create a Map This table is displayed with default geographies. If) View Geography View Table Notes Click: EIa-olt to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the left. Tell us I?what you think. feedback to help make Arreri sar' Contn? .Jr rty E-L. n-?ey cats were .Jsele for you. Athodgn tne American Commcn ty Eunney oroddces popu ation. demograpnic and hot. sing ur'it estimates. it the Censcs EU'eau's Population Estj n'nates Program that orodt. oes anc disseminates the o??sia estimates a: the ation fo' the nation. states. sot. nties. ci1jes ar'd towns ar'd est mates of no.Jsir'g units for states and sat. nties. 3 noe 1l"e 5?year data do not oene?t from data gcal t'y "Ilterir'g. corn oarisona a'e only made for populations a: BLUE- or more. United States 3&3: 1 Subject 2312-2016 Estimates aunt-2:111 Estimates] statistical Signi?cance for the following 152. E?y WPE .. 5' Total households 11 114.?Eu1.359 YEEFS- 15-2 Family householos {fami ies] seals some. 2016 It 'Wlth owl'l children of the householder under 13 years 23.5% 3121.331:- 3.3-1 5 Ma'ried-ooc ple farn 'y 43.2% With oum children of the householder under 13 years 13.2% 2121.731:- Me a hou sel? olde'. no wife p'esent. fami 4.3% 4.6% With oum children of the householder under 13 years 2.3% 2.2% Female householder. r'o t'uslaar'd o'esent. fami 3; 12.3% 12.7% With oum children of the householder under 13 years Nonfarn ly households 34.1% Householder living alone 2173f:- 2T3'l-I'a 65 yea's ar'd owner I United States?? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus BUREAU Bureau census.gov Puertc Rice Universe: Tctal pcpulaticn 201E- American Ccmmunityr Survey 1??r'ear Estimates Table IIll'iew Acticns: ET Mcditerable Gecgraphies This table is displayed with default gec-graphies. illicit Elaclt tc Search tc select cther gecgraphies using the search cpticns en the let. ACS Ranking Tables R0205 PERCENT GF THE TOTAL PGPULATIDH WHD ARE NATIVE AND PACIFIC ISLAHDER ALDHE - United States -- States; and l: Print Tell us what y'cu think. Drcu'ice feedback tc help make Arr'eri car' EL. "reg.- cata rr'cre .Jsele t3 Create a Map ?1 EACH T0 ADVANCED SEARCH With Statistical Signi?cance 1I.."ietr.r Gecgraphyr Hctes 1it"ietrir Table Hctes Att'c-Jg't t'te American ty Eunne'f .Jces pcpu atic't. demcgrap'tic and I?m. sing ur'it estimates. it the Census Eu'eau's F'cpulatic't Estimates F'rc-gram that crch. ces a'tc disseminates the c??cia estimates c" the cc-cu aticn fc' ti"e natie't. states. ch. nties. cities and tcw'ts ar'd est "hates cf 'tc-Jsir'g u'tits states and chnties. Tc trietriI t'tis table wti" statist ml sign fmr' ce. select With Statistics Signi?cance in the Acticn men .J. A is "nest. tc a gecg'aphy ir'dic-ates an estimate is net statistically signi?cant Frc-"n t'te est mate for the selected gecg'aphy. The ncicates the se ecteci gecgrapt'tr. 'u'ersicns at this table are available far the years: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2003 200? 53 53 Gecgraphy: United States FianI-L Gecgraphieal Area Percent Illargin cf Errcr L. n ted E-tates [1.2 1 Hawaii 1 11 2 Aaslta 1.2- 3 Utah 1 .D 4 Nevada Ea? 1 .1 Washington l1? Ei Ca iicr'tia [:14 6 Oregon I14 3 Avian sas 0 Arizona I12 El Cc- cradc [1:2 0 Delaware I12 El Misscur [1:2 0 ?klahcms I12 United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov ACS Ranking Tables Rozos PERCENT THE TGTAL PGPULATIDH WHD ARE MATTVE AND PACIFIC ISLAM DER ALDHE - United States -- States; and Puerto Rico Universe: Total population 20115 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Table View 4 sacs To ADVANCED SEARCH Actions: Modify Table AdofR-emo'ire Geographies l: ElooltmarltISave I: Print Dommloao Create a Map tr Statistical Significanoe This table is displayed with default geographies. 9 View Notes View Table Notes Click Back to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the left. Tell us I?what you think. feedback to help make .?n'eri oar Comn? .Jrit'g.r Eu oats n'ore .Jsele for you. Aroagn tne American Commun Eunne'; orod .Joes popu atio-n. l"ou sing ur'it estimates. it e. the Census Eu'eau's Population Esti n'nate-s Program that oroou oes sno disseminates the o??ois estimates o" the oo-ou stion fo' 1l"e nation. states. sou nties. oi1ies sr'cl towns sr'cl est mates of noasir'g units for states and counties. To tries.I tnis table statist ml sign fmr' oe. select With Statistics Signi?cance in the Ao?on men .J. A is neat to geog'aphy ir'clioates wt'er' an estimate is not sts1is1ioall1r signi?cant fro-n1 tne est mate for the selected geog'aphy. The is: noiostes 1l"e seeotecl geography. Geography: United States Versions of this - . - . Stat . Ge ra hlcal Fires. Unrted States 1' table are available El og I I for the following Rank Geographical Areall Stat Sig? eroent l?argin of Error FEEFSI 1 Un ted States as: 11116 pg 1 Hawaii 1E-.1 2 Aaslts 1.3 2015 F5 . 5.3 3 Utah 2014 4 Nevada 2013 a 'Wsshington or 2012 a ca ifornis 5.4 2011 El Gregon [:24 201'] A'ksr' E23 El A?zons tr :3 3: El Co orado .t El Delaware tr [1.2 30?? a Missour .t 2005 El anathema tr United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov ACS Ranking Tables Rozos PERCENT THE TGTAL PGPULATIDH WHD ARE MATTVE AND PACIFIC ISLAM DER ALDHE - United States -- States; and Puerto Rico Universe: Total population 20115 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Table View I 4 BACK To Actions: Modify Table 4, Aodn'Remo'ire Geographies Elooltmarlt.?5ave I5 Print Download Create a Map .- IWithout Statistical Significance a? I This talole is displayed with default geographies. 9 View Geography Notes View Table Notes Click Back to Search to select other geographies using the search options on the lelt. Tell us I?what you think. feedback to help .?rr'eri oar' Conm? .Jr'rt'g.r 3L. n-?ey cata n'ore .Jsele for Aroogn tne American Con-urnLn Sun-weir onod .Joes popu stion. demograpnio and hot. sing ur'it estimates. it the Census Eu'eau's Population Esti n'nates Program that orodt. oes ano disseminates the o??oia estimates o" the ation Fo' 1l"e nation. states. ooL. nties. oi1ies towns est mates of noosir'g units for states and ooLnties. To view tnis talole statist oal sign foar' oe. select With Statistics Signi?cance in the Ao?on men .J. A is neat to a geog'aphy indie-ates I.I.It'er' an estimate is not sta1is1ic-ally signi?cant front tne est mate for the seleoted geog'aphy. The ?rst! noioates 1l"e seeotecl geography. Geography: United States 1' Versions of this . . . 1' table are available Stat Sig. ISec-graphical area. States for the following Rank Geographical Area Stat Sig? ercent l?argin of Error FEEFSI 1 Un ted States 1a: 11116 pg 1 Hawaii 1E-.1 2015 TD.- 2 Aaslta 1.2 ES 3 Utah 4 Nevada 1013 4 Washington or 2012 a ca ifornia c4 2011 Oregon [:24 201'] A'kar'sas El Arizona :33: El Co orado .t El Delaware 3? a Missour .1: ca zoos a DI-tlahoma . 4 pa United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration us U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 38 Special Case Controlled Estimates • MOE = ***** (5 asterisks) • Set MOE = 0 for statistical testing B01001 SEX BY AGE Universe: Total Population 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates United States Estimate Total: Margin of Error 318,558,162 ***** 156,765,322 +/-6,427 Under 5 years 10,154,024 +/-3,778 5 to 9 years 10,476,978 +/-17,108 10 to 14 years 10,547,421 +/-17,082 15 to 17 years 6,431,470 +/-2,858 Male: 39 Special Case Zero Estimate MOEs • Zero estimates will have an MOE B01001E SEX BY AGE (NATIVE HAWAIIAN AND OTHER PACIFIC ISLANDER ALONE) Universe: People who are Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Maine New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Margin of Margin of Margin of Estimate Estimate Estimate Margin of Error Estimate Error Error Error Total: 211 +/-72 229 +/-92 575 +/-245 206 +/-107 84 +/-48 103 +/-65 338 +/153 69 +/-47 Under 5 years 0 +/-23 0 +/-26 0 +/-29 0 +/-20 5 to 9 years 0 +/-23 0 +/-26 55 +/-52 0 +/-20 10 to 14 years 11 +/-9 0 +/-26 39 +/-36 10 +/-15 15 to 17 years 0 +/-23 0 +/-26 15 +/-21 0 +/-20 18 and 19 years 0 +/-23 0 +/-26 0 +/-29 0 +/-20 20 to 24 years 0 +/-23 15 +/-23 110 +/-81 0 +/-20 25 to 29 years 30 +/-42 0 +/-26 0 +/-29 0 +/-20 Male: 40 Special Case Medians and Aggregates B06011 MEDIAN INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2016 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) BY PLACE OF BIRTH IN THE UNITED STATES Universe: Population 15 years and over in the United States with income 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Adak city, Alaska Estimate Margin of Error Median income in the past 12 months -Total: 24,063 +/-6,521 Born in state of residence 19,375 +/-14,024 Born in other state of the United States 56,667 +/-14,001 Native; born outside the United States ** Foreign born 2,500*** •Median and Aggregates with too few observations •Estimate = “-”, MOE = “**” •Medians in lower or upper categories: •Estimate = “$2,500-”, MOE = “***” •Estimate = “$250,000+”, MOE = “***” Statistical testing NOT possible 41 Special Case Medians and Aggregates B06011 MEDIAN INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2016 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) BY PLACE OF BIRTH IN THE UNITED STATES Universe: Population 15 years and over in the United States with income 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Adak city, Alaska Estimate Margin of Error Median income in the past 12 months -Total: 24,063 +/-6,521 Born in state of residence 19,375 +/-14,024 Born in other state of the United States 56,667 +/-14,001 Native; born outside the United States ** Foreign born 2,500*** •Median and Aggregates with too few observations •Percents and Ratios with a denominator of zero (0) •Estimate = “-”, MOE = “**” •Medians in lower or upper categories: •Estimate = “$2,500-”, MOE = “***” •Estimate = “$250,000+”, MOE = “***” Statistical testing NOT possible 42 Special Case Medians and Aggregates B06011 MEDIAN INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2016 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) BY PLACE OF BIRTH IN THE UNITED STATES Universe: Population 15 years and over in the United States with income 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Adak city, Alaska Estimate Margin of Error Median income in the past 12 months -Total: 24,063 +/-6,521 Born in state of residence 19,375 +/-14,024 Born in other state of the United States 56,667 +/-14,001 Native; born outside the United States ** Foreign born 2,500*** •Median and Aggregates with too few observations •Estimate = “-”, MOE = “**” •Medians in lower or upper categories: •Estimate = “$2,500-”, MOE = “***” •Estimate = “$250,000+”, MOE = “***” Statistical testing NOT possible 43 Special Case Medians and Aggregates B06011 MEDIAN INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2016 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) BY PLACE OF BIRTH IN THE UNITED STATES Universe: Population 15 years and over in the United States with income 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Adak city, Alaska Estimate Margin of Error Median income in the past 12 months -Total: 24,063 +/-6,521 Born in state of residence 19,375 +/-14,024 Born in other state of the United States 56,667 +/-14,001 Native; born outside the United States ** Foreign born 2,500*** •Median and Aggregates with too few observations •Estimate = “-”, MOE = “**” •Medians in lower or upper categories: •Estimate = “$2,500-”, MOE = “***” •Estimate = “$250,000+”, MOE = “***” Statistical testing NOT possible 44 Special Case Special Cases displayed in apps and the API My Tribal Area .U 1% I 3 Secure I {r Enter name 0f Tribal Area J. 1H. J. BEBE UR 5mm?? 11_aase? "ea "aaea11_aa1m" "eaea11_aa1ea." "aaea11_a-a1 . Florida 3 degree Ha" aaea11_a-a2n" "aaea11_a-azEA" Eacr'EICl-rus degtee 1?69 If 1' II II II BEBE Sem'n?le Twat Land Graduata or professional 11_aa-ma" seam? . Basalt ass . "aaeall seam" . 'state", Percent high school graduate or higher 3'5 Percent bachelor's degree or higher -. I: "?nd?k Cit)?, Ema; U5 CEHSLS mm Alaska?J "asses?, "5521?, "193?5", "14am", Communda? Survey 5-?1?E?rEa?rimatea 6&6" ?222222122" "2499" "?333333333" 5521" null null, "143 24-" Ezacaept where note: 'rece refers to people reporting oral-g.- nul 1? nu 222 ?tfere?etie Em? '?333333333", 566? ?as" .i?t enirt.I in the escin?ete or margin of error column indicates that the estimate or margin of error is not applicable or no: available. .ttn entq.I 1n the margin of error cotternn Indicates that either no sample observations or to: few sample observations were available to compute a standaro err-or and thus the rnargtr?. error. A statistlbal test is no: appropriate .a'tn entry in the estin?ate oolurrln indicates Eh at either no sample observations or too few sarr-ple observations were avaHaole to compute an estimate. or a read of rredians cannot be catculated o?ause one or looth of the . median estimates Falls in the lowest interval or under United States? U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration nsus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU 45 Bureau census.gov B1TDD1 Table View Actions: Modify Table Estimates with Large MOEs POVERTY STATUS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS SEI Eh" AGE Universe: Population for whom poverty status is detennined 0 2012?201 5 American Communityr Survey 5?Year Estimates 7 Add-Remove Geographies IE Bookmark-Save Print Download Createa Map View Geography Notes Tell us What you think. Prom-ice :eedte:l-: to help ma ke An'sricer' Commur?ity Survey data more for you. ?1 BACK TD REP-FAME ED SEARCH i3 1uriew Table Notes Although the American Community Survey (AC5) produces population. demographic and housing unit estimates. it is the Census reau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the of?cial estimates of the population for the nation. states. counties. cities and towns and estimates of ho using units for states and counties. Versions of this table are available for the following years: 2015 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 United States? Census Bureau 1?1Eo12.295 Can us Tract 1? 13 of2.25?- 3" 31-31- Census Tract Census Tract 1 Census Tract Census Tract Census Tract Census Tract Census Tract Census Tract 5513?, Acadia 5508, Acadia 5509, Acadia 9601, Acadia 9502, Acadia 9503-, Acadia 55134, Acadia 9505, Acadia 9605, Acadia ParishI ParishI ParishI 55- Parish, Louisiana Parish, Louisiana Parish, Louisiana Parish, Louisiana Parish, Louisiana Parish, Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana 53;: Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Estimate Error Total: 5.153 5.5 5-3- 3.551 31 5.555 5.523 35- 5.354 4.3 33 +3435 4.4 35- 4.332 55 Income in the past 12 months below-1.l 1 .531 3-3-3- 435 T33 1 1332 1 .253 1 1 .533- Male: T43 135 145- 2T5 11 5-34 TT +354 4T4 5T5 +3155 5315 +3133- Under 5 years 411-3-3- T-3- 52 125 +r?32 T-3- 53 5 years 1T -3- -3- -3- -3- -3- 1-3- 51 -3- 6 to 11 years 2015 14 1?1" 23 5-3- 52 15-5- 12 to 14 years 31 13 -3- 5- 5-years years 33 +353+335 1 113 to 24 years -+345 515 +3455 33- 35 25 to 34 years -3 13 15 32 31 +325 51 -3- 5T +355- 1-3-1 54 55 35 to 44 years 1-3-3- 11 -3- -3- +1'-12 24 +333 25 +1'-42 -3- -3- -3- +1'-12 41 +3?53- 45 to 54 years 5-3 11 -3- -3- 1-3-5 4-3- 5- 5-3- 5T 55 to 6-4 years 55- 5-3 T0 32 6-9 G- 3-9 50- 7-3- IE3 +f-56 65 to T4 years -3- 14 G- G- 1-3-5 +335- -3- G- E- +125- U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov Estimates with Large MOEs • Exercise Caution • Questionable Reliability • Small Sample Size • Possible Solutions: • Use a larger geography • Combine estimates across characteristics, geographies or both 47 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 48 Deriving New Estimates Must approximate the MOE SE11. 31' AGE Universe: Tatal populatian 2012-2016 Amen?ean Cammunitv 5-Year Estimates ED113111 United States? ensus Bureau Versions of this 1 "mud Statie? table are available Harm" ?f Err" for the fg?gwing Tatal: 313.553.1132 wars; :3 .3. 21315 Under 5 years 15. 154.1124 .TT3 21315 5" 'u'?u'wa 21314 1511:: 14 years 15.541421 21313 '15 la- years 5.431.433] 21312 13 and 13 years 4.44333? .375 21311 23 years 2.423.253I 2'31? 21 years 2.335.233 12 2mm 22 la- 24 years +1-15.153 25 11:: 25' years 11.152.?32 33 la- 34 years #5331 35 1-: 35' years 3.333.275- 43 la: 44 years 13.133413 +1-13.541 45 11:: 45' years 15.442253- .1354 53 la- 54 years 13.922233 55 :a 53 years 1E-.313.312 ED and 51 years 3.311.221 52 1-: 54 years 5. 1751.573- .233 55 and 55 years 3.233.247 +1-133-13- 5? 11:: 55' years 4.532.545 TD la- ?4 years 5.034.251 T511: TE years 3.515.115.T 33 la- 34 years 2.433.515 35 yea's and Dyer 2.553.412 .355 ?22.212 5. Under 5 years 5.712.335 +r-I nasa- U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov 14- a. 14- aa? l-Id'l .Idl'hF-tul- Approximating the MOE To calculate total number of children under the age of 5 years old: 1. Sum the estimates for males and females 2. Approximate the MOE: 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀(𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆) = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 2 + 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒2 2 … 50 Approximating the MOE Characteristics Estimate MOE Under 5 years, Males 10,154,024 +/-3,778 Under 5 years, Females 9,712,936 +/-3,911 Estimate of the Sum = 10,154,024 + 9,712,936 = 19,866,960 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀(𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆) = 3,7782 + 3,9112 ≈ 5,438 51 Approximating the MOE Characteristics (Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone) Estimate MOE Under 5 years old (Maine) 0 +/-22 5 to 9 years old (Maine) 0 +/-22 Under 5 years old (Rhode Island) 0 +/-29 5 to 9 years old (Rhode Island) 41 +/-37 TOTAL 41 +/-47 When approximating a sum, use only the largest zero estimate MOE, once: 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 372 + 292 ≈ 47 52 Variance Replicate Tables https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/variance-tables.html 53 Collapsed Tables Detailed Table B01001B Collapsed Table C01001B SEX BY AGE (BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN ALONE) Universe: People who are Black or African American alone 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates SEX BY AGE (BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN ALONE) Universe: People who are Black or African American alone 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates United States United States Estimate Estimate Margin of Error 40,893,369 +/-64,285 19,537,758 +/-35,962 Under 18 years 5,237,911 +/-26,401 +/-17,452 18 to 64 years 12,503,604 +/-21,639 1,446,747 +/-20,544 65 years and over 1,796,243 +/-8,533 15 to 17 years 926,684 +/-8,558 21,355,611 +/-43,641 18 and 19 years 663,421 +/-11,769 Under 18 years 5,081,189 +/-29,343 20 to 24 years 1,698,590 +/-15,132 18 to 64 years 13,609,249 +/-23,107 25 to 29 years 1,593,848 +/-12,072 65 years and over 2,665,173 +/-8,109 30 to 34 years 1,364,171 +/-11,673 35 to 44 years 2,490,670 +/-16,197 45 to 54 years 2,514,128 +/-12,777 55 to 64 years 2,178,776 +/-8,608 65 to 74 years 1,194,391 +/-8,472 Total: 40,893,369 +/-64,285 19,537,758 +/-35,962 Under 5 years 1,380,640 +/-11,878 5 to 9 years 1,483,840 10 to 14 years Male: Total: Margin of Error Male: Female: 54 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 55 Resources American Community Survey The Setter-Len Emir-L3.- heipe e?leleie cemntunnly ieaders. and businesses understand the changes tekang place in their communities. It is me premier seuree for detailed pepuiahen Stats In A?tl?n: New 0 Reepend tn: the Sun-e3..- and heuslng infern?iallen abeut eur natien Abcul the Survey- Haws 3- Updates Data Gmdance I'm Data Hears ?eegraphy 5 ACS Technical Documentatlen Haw do I respond to the We can I get data? Writ-Jr do y?u as}: each queshen" Methudemgy Library Operatrens and A?mimstrahen Latest Centact U5 .. .. Data News ?Events. Libf?r?f i-?n File-Spend tn the ACE- 2016 Data Release Learn mere about AC5 dale reieasee including the January 13th release at 2012-2015 AC5 5-Year Pu?nht Lise Mum-mate Sample ?res and Variante Replicate Tablet: New F'Ir-wiew [if PItJIiit-Izi {m l'iilli'i Search fer yeur ceunty en date cenauege-r? to explore a visual enepehet e'i etalastice and prewde feedback an ere-new elr the data diseemlnatlen piaiferm United States? US. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov ACS Documentation https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/code-lists.html 57 ACS Documentation https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/code-lists.html 58 ACS Documentation https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/code-lists.html 59 Compass Handbooks American Community Survey (ADS) About the Survey Respond to the Suryey News 8; Updates Data Guidance for Data Users Subjects Included in the Sun-'ey 'Which Data Table or Tool Should I Use?? 'When to Use 1?year, 3? year. or 5?year Estimates Handbooks Comparing ACS Data Statistical Testing Tool Training Presentations United StateS? EHSUS Bureau Geography 3: ACS Tech ni al Doc mentati on Methodology Library Operations and Ad ministration Contact Us 0 0 Respond lo the AC5 Learn how Handbooks for Data Users ?fou can use American Community Sumey data in different ways and for different reasons. Each one of our downloadable PDF Compass handbooks helps a parb'cular group with speci?c how?to instructions andfor case studies. For an introduction to .ACS data, we recommend the compass handbook: for General Data Users. What Congress Needs to Know Noyen' :er This handbook helps congressional staff use ACS data to respond to constituent inquiries. draft floorfpress statements, conduct legislatiye research. and more. What Federal Agencies Need to Know Deoen" :er QUUS This handbook helps federal agencies use ACS data for eligibility determinations. allocation of funds. program parameters. and more. What General Data Users Need to Know This handbook helps general data users learn how to access and use ACS data and proyide concrete examples of how ACS data can answer real?world questions. What High School Teachers Need to Know Due-sen" cer EUUS This handbook helps teachers learn more about how to help students grasp statistical ideas with ACS data and how to incorporate data into lesson plans- What Public Use l'u'licrodata Sample Data Users Need to Knot--r Fec-ua ry 2 2-2-9 This handbook helps PUMS data users learn how to access PUMS ?les: create PUMS tables. and measure accuracy. margin of error. and con?dence interyals. U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov Training Presentations https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/training-presentations.html 61 Crosswalk American Cemmunity Survey about the Survey Resp-end ten the Survey News 8; Updates Data Guidance fer Data Users Subjects Included in the Survey.r Which Data Table er Teal Should I Use? When tn:- use year. er 5-year estimates Han dbdelrs Cunpar'nu AC5 Dala Ta ble Cemparisens EDT-E EDTE EDT-4 EDTB AID ElDensus Table Enter a table number belew td search fer a eemparable table between AC5 5?year estimates and Census 2WD SF3 detailed tables- Dr dewnlead all tab :smparisens ACE 5-year Census EDDIZI SFB DH lCensus EUUD EFE- AC5- 5-year Enter HIDE Detailed Table Enter Den sus EDDIE 5F3 Detailed Table example" example." PCTESH Tell Us What 'r'du Think! contact us email updates site map Tell Us What ?r'du Thinlt! Related Fle seurees Get ASS esta en tables :nr' Earner FsetF rider Get CEDSLS EF3 eetsi en: tsl: es en American Fast?nder Browse ACE-"Census ssn'sa'usc": ngesr'se by subject sheets-sin: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov United States? EHSUS Bureau U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Design and Methodology https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology/design-and-methodology.html 63 Source Us! U.S. Census Bureau’s [YYYY-YYYY] American Community Survey [1/5]-year [estimates/statistics/data release] 64 Continue the Conversation #ACSdata Sign up for and manage alerts at https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USCENSUS/subscriber/new More information online: https://www.census.gov/acs 1-800-923-8282 acso.users.support@census.gov Social media: @uscensusbureau ACS Data Users Group • Purpose: – Improve understanding of the value and utility of ACS data. – Promote information sharing among data users about key ACS data issues and applications • • • • Membership is free and open to all interested ACS data users Presentations and recordings from past conferences available Webinars and special sessions at professional meetings planned Users group website and online community acsdatacommunity.prb.org Need Local Stats? • Assistance Near You! Our regional data staff can help you access local statistics from the ACS or offer training to help build your skills. • Contact us at: 1-844-ASK-DATA (1-844-275-3282) census.askdata@census.gov 40 Outline • • • • • • • • ACS Estimates What is the Margin of Error (MOE) Why do MOEs Matter Statistical Testing Using the MOE Special Cases Approximating the MOE Available Resources Questions 68 Questions? United States? US. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration ensus U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Bureau census.gov