Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 1 of 71 MATERIAL PROVIDED BY COUNSEL TO THE PLAINTIFFS, SEEGERWEISS LLP Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 2 of 71 Privilegec? and Confidential NFL Concussion Liability Forecast Prepared by: Thomas Vasquez Analysis Research Planning Corporation February 10, 2014 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 3 of 71 Privileged and Con?dential Table of Contents 1. Introduction 3 2 Summary of Conclusions 3 3. Methodology 10 4 Database of Former Players, Living and Deceased 13 Database of Former Players 13 Pro?le of Former NFL Players Age and Eligible Seasons Played 15 5. Incidence of Compensable Diseases 17 Background Incidence 18 Induced Incidence 19 Total Incidence 19 Total Incidence by Disease 20 6. Compensation 26 Compensation of Living Former Players 26 Examples ofMonetary Award Calculations 30 7. Cost Estimate 33 Appendix A: Determination of Incidence Rates 39 Appendix B: Annual Cash low Model and Assumptions 48 Appendix C: Summary of Claims Filed by Former NFL Players 50 Appendix D: Examples of Life Cycle Modeling of Former NFL Players 51 Appendix B: List of Deceased Former NFL Players with CTE 66 Appendix F: CV of Thomas Vasquez 67 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 4 of 71 Priviicged and Coniidcntiai 1. Introduction On January 31, 2012, a federal multidistrict litigation was established in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of In re: National Football League Players? Concussion Injury Litigation, (MDL No. 2323). Additional similar lawsuits were also ?led and are pending in various state and federal courts. 1 was asked by representatives of the Plaintiff?s Executive Committee in that litigation to undertake an analysis to assist in the settlement negotiations. My analysis is designed to determine the total cost of resolving all pending and future claims by former National Football League (NFL) players alleging brain injury caused by concussive and sub?concussive impacts (concussion?related injuries). 1 was also asked to determine whether the agreed upon settlement amount and timing of payments is sufficient to meet all the obligations arising from these claims. This report presents the methodology and conclusions from my analysis. 2. Summary of Conclusions As of the beginning of the 2013/2014 NFL season there were approximately 21,000 individuals who are former NFL players approximately 19,400 who are still alive and 1,700 who are deceased.1 Pursuant to the terms of the Settlement Agreement, upon approval of the settlement, all of these individuals will be eligible for payment following registration and submission of appropriate evidence of a qualifying diagnosis of a concussion-related injury and related claims information. My primary conclusions are: 1.) Approximately 3,600 of the former players are estimated to develop compensable injuries and participate in the settlement with total compensation of approximately $950 million. Because many of the injuries take years to develop, the compensation stream extends far into the future. Indeed, only approximately 54% of total compensation will be paid in the first 20 years of the operation of the settlement fund. 2.) The agreed upon level of funding (taking into account the earnings on the funds, the payout stream and the compensation scheme) is suf?cient to pay all of the anticipated 1 An estimated 3,300 former players have died since 1984. The Settlement Agreement, however, presumptively limits eligibility for monetary awards to the Representative Claimants of players who died on or after January 1, 2006. Approximately 800 deceased former players are eligible under this limitation. However, the analysis includes 900 players deceased from 2000 through 2005 based on a provision in the Settlement Agreement concerning statutes of limitation. The analysis of the former players who died from 2000 to 2005 is different from that concerning the former players who died after 2005, as explained herein. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 5 of 71 Privileged and {Con?dential concussion-related claims. I understand that the funding for the Monetary Award Fund (MAP) totals $675 to be paid over the next 20 years. My conclusions are based on: (1) a compilation of the number of former players (both still alive and deceased) that are eligible to be class members which includes detailed information on their demographics, current compensable injury (if any) and NFL playing experience; (2) an in depth review of the medical literature and health statistics related to concussion-related injuries; (3) the application of a life cycle forecasting model that follows each individual player over time (applying epidemiological probabilities each year of the player?s remaining life, the model determines whether and if so, when a player contracts a compensable injury), and; (4) estimates of the probability that the former players elect to participate in the settlement. Certain estimates and assumptions are critical in forming my opinion. The following is a summary of the analysis supporting my two basic conclusions. Total Compensable Claims and Compensation Table 2-1 provides a summary of estimated compensable claims and total compensation by type of injury based on the compensable injuries de?ned in the Settlement Agreement. Approximately 3,600 former players will receive payment. The overwhelming majority, approximately 15,000, are not compensated because they never contract a compensable disease. The remaining 2,300 do contract a compensable disease but based on evidence from other mass tort settlements, it is estimated that these eligible class members never elect to participate. 2 The total settlement is $750 million. However, $75 million is earmarked for the Baseline Assessment Program (BAP), leaving $675 million to pay compensation to class members. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 6 of 71 Privileged and ?onfidential Table 2-1 Former Players with Compensable Concussion?Related Injury by Type of Injury with Total Compensation millions) Total Claims Total Compensation Most Serious lnjury/ Disease Count Percent Amount Percent Compensable Injury/Disease ALS 18 0.5% $49.4 5.3% Death 46 1.3% $64.9 7.0% Parkinson?s 14 0.4% $3.2 0.3% Alzheimer?s 1,757 48.9% $474.9 50.9% Level 2 1,761 49.0% $341.0 36.5% Level 1.5 na na na na Total, Compensable 3,596 100.0% $933.4 100.0% Not Compensated 17,474 na na na Grand Total 21,070 na $933.4 100.0% Note: All compensation categorized by most serious injury. All Level 1.5 claims are assumed to progress to Level 2 and more serious levels. $248 million is paid to former players at Level 1.5. This amount is included in the category of their most serious disease as follows: $212 milion paid at Level 2; $34 million to Alzheimer's and $2 million to other disease types. Players are not compensated because they did not experience a compensable injury or did not ?le a claim. The overwhelming percent of compensable claims and compensation is paid to former players with Alzheimer?s disease or Level 2 neurocognitive disorders 98% of compensable claims and 87% of compensation. The distribution of claims re?ects the relative probabilities of the occurrence of the various diseases in the general population combined with the additional incidence related to concussions. Timing of Compensation Payments and Funding Table 2?2 shows the timing of payments to former players and the receipt of funding by the settlement fund through the payment of the last compensable claim. The timing and total amount of funding are sufficient to pay all claims. 0 Compensation payments in the ?rst ?ve years are high because there are a relatively large number of former NFL players who have already indicated they intend to file a claim. These claimants include former players who have already been diagnosed with a Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 7 of 71 Priviiegeti and. Confidentiai compensable injury and will be paid in the ?rst few years of the settlement fund. After these claims are resolved, the fund will be receiving and paying claims at a signi?cantly lower rate, as the ?ling of future claims depends on the timing of the manifestation of future compensable injuries; 0 The initial funding amount of approximately $364 million (55% of the total funding) is designed to provide enough assets to pay the compensable claims already identi?ed and to cover the startup costs of the claim processing facility While still leaving a signi?cant asset. The remaining assets are supplemented with an additional $311 million which is paid in annual installments through 2033. At that time, the remaining assets of the settlement fund (with earnings) are sufficient to pay all remaining claims. 0 The Fund Balance increases through 2034 as the additional funding and earnings exceed the required amount to pay claims. The fund balance begins to decline after that as the settlement fund continues to pay claims, but with earnings as its only source of revenue - there is no additional funding contributed after 2033. The last claim is paid in the early 20803 at which time the fund is estimated to have a balance of approximately $80 million.3 Table 2-2 Settlement Fund Compensation Payments, Funding and Earnings Through the Payment of the Last Compensable Claim millions) End of Period Compensation Fund Time Period Amountl Funding Earnings Balance 2014 through 2018 $292.3 $364.0 $25.0 $91.6 2019 through 2023 $78.2 $103.7 $28.1 $143.8 2024 through 2028 $95.5 $103.7 $38.6 $189.0 2029 through 2038 $178.6 $103.7 $103.2 $214.0 2039 through 2048 $167.7 $0.0 $72.9 $116.2 Remaining 35 Years $133.3 $0.0 $103.4 $80.4 Total $945.5 $675.0 $371.2 na lIncludes processing Costs Note: Funding plus earnings is actually in excess of the amount needed to pay all claims. 3 The $80 million balance in the early 20803 implies overfunding of only approximately $5 million at 2014 levels. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 8 of 71 Privileged and. {joni?identiai The E?ect of A ge, Years Played in the NFL and In?ation on Settlement Amounts The Settlement Agreement provides maximum monetary awards to players who are less than 45 years old when they are diagnosed with a compensable disease and have played in the NFL for 5 years or more. There is a reduction in the compensation levels based on age and years played beginning with players age 45 or older and players with less than 5 years of experience in the NFL. The Settlement Agreement also provides for an escalation in the compensation amounts to adjust for in?ation. These adjustments have a signi?cant effect on the average amount of compensation paid to the former players and a corresponding signi?cant effect on the total compensation paid by the fund. The magnitude of the effect of age, playing time and in?ation depends heavily on the average age of the players when contracting a compensable disease, the number of years the individual played in the NFL and the year the disease is contracted. Table 2-3 summarizes these variables. The table shows that the average age for former players today is approximately 51 years of age and the average age at the time of diagnosis with the most serious disease is approximately 77 years of age for both groups. Of course, 77 years of age is simply an average. It is expected that many former players will develop compensable injuries at a much younger age. Due to the average age at the time of onset of the disease, compensation amounts are subject to signi?cant reductions from the maximum awards. Table 2-3 also shows that 60% of all players estimated to receive compensation have fewer than the 5 years needed to receive the maximum monetary award. It also Shows that individuals who have already ?led a claim have signi?cantly more playing time than individuals who have not yet ?led? 0 First, only 35% of the players who have already ?led played fewer than 5 years. However, 73% of the players who have not yet ?led played fewer than 5 years. 0 In addition, those who have already ?led played an average of 6.3 years. Those who have not yet ?led played an average of only 3.5 years. 4 Throughout the report, a player is labeled a ?ler if he is currently represented by an attorney and has provided an indication the he will participate in the class. It does not necessarily mean the player has ?led a law suit. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 9 of 71 Table 2-3 Privileged and. Con?dential Selected Characteristics of Former Players: Age, Years Played and Year of Contracting Disease/In jury Years Played Age At: Percent of Players 2014 Year of Most with Less Than Average Years Year of Most Player Category or at Death Serious Injury 5 Years Played Played Serious Injury Already Filed 52.0 76.3 35% 6.3 2037 Future Filer 51.2 77.7 73% 3.5 2039 All Filers 51.4 77.4 60% 4.4 2039 Table 2?4 shows the effect of these adjustments for age and years played. Without any adjustments, players would be compensated at the maximum value for their injury shown in the table as the Maximum Monetary Award. Table 2-4 Effect of Age, Years Played and In?ation on Average and Total Compensation by Injury Category Value After Value After Age and Maximum Age Adjustment Years Played Adjustment Actual Final Value Monetary Average Total Average Total Average Total Most Serious Injury/ Disease Award Payment Compensation Payment Compensation Payment Compensation millions) millions) millions) Compensable Injurnyisease ALS $5,000,000 $2,930,000 $52.8 $2,120,000 $38.1 $2,740,000 $49.4 Death $4,000,000 $1,910,000 $85.8 $1 ,440,000 $64.9 $1,440,000 $64.9 Parkinson's $3,500,000 $320,000 $4.5 $190,000 $2.7 $230,000 $3.2 Alzheimer's $3,500,000 $340,000 $593.8 $190,000 $340.7 $270,000 $474.9 Level 2 $3,000,000 $210,000 $368.8 $140,000 $246.5 $190,000 $341.0 Level i5 $1,500,000 na na na na na na Total, Compensable na na $1,105.? na $693.0 na $933.4 Note: All Level 1.5 are assumed to progress to Level 2. All compensation categorized by most serious injury Adjusting for age at diagnosis reduces the average compensation signi?cantly below the maximum monetary award levels. The impact varies across injury types. For example, the average payment for diagnosed cases of ALS is $2.93 million rather than the maximum award amount of $5 million - a 40% reduction. The average age?adjusted payment for players being diagnosed with Alzheimer?s is $0.34 million, about 90% less than the maximum award amount of $3.5 million. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 10 of 71 Priviieged and Confidential Adjusting for years played has a less substantial effect on award values after the age adjustment. For example as Table 2-4 shows, for former players diagnosed with ALS the average payment after the adjustment for number of years played is $2.1 million a 28% reduction. The average payment to players diagnosed with Alzheimer?s disease is reduced from $0.34 million to $0.19 million. Finally, adjusting for in?ation increases average and total compensation. Again, as Table 2-4 shows, adjusting for in?ation increases average payments by approximately 30% for ALS and 40% for Alzheimer?s, 20% for Parkinson?s, no change for death with CTE and approximately 40% for Level 2 neurocognitive disorders. However, the actual ?nal average award amounts for each disease are signi?cantly below the maximum monetary award amounts, resulting in an in?ation adjusted total compensation amount of $933.4 million. Player Participation Rates The participation rate in the Settlement Agreement among eligible former NFL players is a signi?cant factor in determining the number of claims that will be ?led and thus also the amount of funds required to resolve the claims. In order to establish an estimate of the participation rate, several factors were considered. First, experience with participation rates in other mass tort cases was reviewed. In general, participation rates in mass torts are dependent on the outreach and notice program, the lag from exposure/injury to the manifestation of a compensable disease/injury, and award size. For comparison, the participation rates for various large and widely publicized class action settlements and data on consumer product recall response rates were considered. The participation rates varied considerably, but centered in a range of 20% to 30%. In this case, approximately 4,200 former players had already retained counsel and indicated a desire to participate at the time this analysis was prepared, which represents more than 20% of the potentially eligible population of approximately 21,100 former players.5 I understand that there has been for some time and continues to be extensive outreach to former players by plaintiff lawyers and others to participate. Whether continuing further efforts are likely to attract a signi?cant number of additional players is not certain. Nonetheless, it is assumed that the participation rates in this settlement wiil achieve high levels because the settlement has very high public visibility, and contact information available through the NFL Players union and other sources that can be used in the noti?cation process is available for a large portion of the potentially eligible population. My forecast of the number of future claims and the resulting cash requirements to fund the settlement assumes that 50% of the living 5 Additional claims have been ?led since this analysis was performed. Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 11 of 71 Privileged and ?0Ei??it?titini and deceased6 former NFL players that have not yet ?led will ultimately participate. When combined with those who have already ?led, it is assumed that approximately 60% of all potentially eligible former players will participate in the settlement. In?ation of Compensation Awards and the Earnings Rate of Settlement Assets A key assumption in determining whether the settlement is adequately funded is the real rate of return earned on settlement assets. The calculations assume a 2.5% real rate of return a 4.5% nominal yield and an underlying 2.0% in?ation rate. The actual expected return is dependent on the real returns available for different types of assets and the portfolio mix adopted by the settlement administrators. Long term historical experience suggests that a real rate of return of 2.5% is at the extreme lower level of expected returns. Returns on debt and equity both exceed 2.5% real rate of return over long periods of time. Indeed, even an extremely high reliance on low risk ?nancial assets historically has yielded more than 2.5% annually. However, because of historically low bond yields in recent years, I conservatively assumed a 2.5% return. Recent experience supports an average annual in?ation rate of approximately 2.0% (especially since the Settlement Agreement caps the annual increase at thereby limiting the impact of any short term aberration). It should be noted that the adequacy of the settlement funds depends on the real rate of return, not the absolute level of the two components. 3. Methodology The methodology used in this analysis is based on a life cycle forecasting model. The life cycle model looks at each individual in the population of former NFL players and ?ages? them year? by-year into the future. During the aging process, the life cycle model takes each of the former NFL players individually and ?rst applies the epidemiological risk equations to compute the probability of contracting each one of the compensable injuries. The model then applies overall mortality rates to compute the likelihood of death due to other natural causes". The mortality rates used to compute the likelihood of death due to natural causes are those for all causes for males in the same age group. Thus, for each player and for each year, computations are made based on the probabilities of each of the following: the player will die of natural causes, (2) he will be diagnosed with one of the compensable terminal diseases (Alzheimer?s, ALS, Parkinson?s, Death with CTE), (3) he 6 The participation rate for former players who were deceased before 2006 was reduced to 20%. This is because the settlement requires that pre-2006 deceased players must satisfy local statute of iimitation conditions related to wrong?il death claims and such requirement will preclude eligibility for most of these claims. 7 The term ?natural causes? used throughout this report refers to any cause of death that is not identi?ed as a compensable disease in the Settlement Agreement. 10 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 12 of 71 Privileged and {Toni?niential will be diagnosed with one of the non-terminal neurocognitive disorders (Level 1.5 or 2), and (4) he will not experience any of these adverse conditions during that year. These steps are repeated year-by-year, changing the mortality rates and disease incidence rates accordingly for age until the individual player reaches a ?nal resolution either he dies of natural causes or he is diagnosed with one of the terminal diseases and receives full ?nal compensation. The model then repeats this entire process for the next player until all players in the population have reached the ?nal resolution stage, and the last member of the population of former NFL players is no longer alive. A diagram of the life cycle modeling methodology is shown in Table 3-1. Table 3?1: Life Cycle Methodology Overview Former NFL Player 1 I Yea-I. Select an outcome based on Repeat . 'dence same player met for Year Death by Contract Terminal Contract Lesser No adverse Natural Causes Disease Disease event Compute Final Settlement Compute No Amount Intermediate Compensation (Adjusted for Ally Se?leInent Repeat ?fith sme piayer Intermediate Amount for Year Payment) Final Resolution for Player Get Next Player 11 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 13 of 71 Privileged and Confidential As the diagram shows, there are two possibilities for reaching a ?nal resolution with a player: (1) when the model predicts that a player dies of natural causes he is removed from the eligible population either without compensation or with compensation for a non-terminal disease, or (2) when the model predicts that a player is diagnosed with one of the terminal diseases, a computation is made of the settlement amount due to him based on the disease, his age and the number of playing years. When the model predicts that a player is diagnosed with a neurocognitive disorder, he is assigned a Level 2 diagnosis. In every case where Level 2 is diagnosed, it is assumed that the player initially presented with a Level 1.5 disorder three years earlier. A computation is made of the settlement amount due to him based on condition, age and playing years as he progresses from Level 1.5 to Level 2, and that player is run through the model again repeatedly until his date and cause of death or terminal disease are determined with compensation calculated accordingly over time. Once a player has been determined by the model to be diagnosed with a disease that is eligible for compensation, the computation of the settlement amount is made based on the compensation matrix. This matrix identi?es a maximum value of compensation for each disease diagnosis, and then makes adjustments for certain factors that take into account background incidence and risk exposure such as the player?s age at the time of the diagnosis and the number of years he played in the NFL. There are 1,712 deceased former NFL players who may be eligible for compensation. This includes 76 players who have ?led claims that include a qualifying diagnosis, and 1,636 non- ?lers who died between 2000 and 2013. In this analysis, for claims already ?led that provided a qualifying diagnosis, this information was used to determine the amount of compensation due. Deceased players for which no claim was ?led but whose survivors are potentially eligible for compensation and deceased players who ?led a claim but included no diagnosis information were also run through the life cycle forecasting model retrospectively in order to determine the likely date of diagnosis if any for a compensable disease. In order to forecast compensation that may be paid to these deceased players, the analysis does the following: (1) retains those cases in which death occurred between 2000 and 2013, (2) applies the same background and induced incidence rates used for eligible living former players to the deceased players retrospectively based on their age to determine a diagnosis date of a terminal or lesser disease, (3) applies the age discount (based on the estimated age at diagnosis) and the discount for years played, and (4) applies estimated participation rates.8 8 The participation rates for deceased players who have not ?led a claim is the same as that used for eligible living players who have not ?led based on the assumption that living family members or the player?s estate may ?le a representative claim. For deceased players in this category who died prior to 2006, it is assumed that 20% of those who participate will be able to successfully demonstrate to the Claims Administrator that their claims are not time barred under the applicable statute of limitations, and thus establish their eligibility for compensation. For deceased claimants who have ?led a claim and were diagnosed with a compensable disease the participation rate is 100%. For deceased claimants who did not provide a diagnosis, the participation rate is assumed to be 95%. 12 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 14 of 71 Priviieged and (ionizidentiai The total compensation amount for all eligible former NFL players is determined by summing the compensation amounts for each player year-by-year. The key inputs to the model are: Player data including age and years played in the NFL Background incidence for each of the compensable diseases Induced incidence from concussions for each of the compensable diseases 0 Compensation amounts for each disease with adjustments for age and years played Player data was derived from a combination of several authoritative sources. The sources, data, and methods used to identify the population of players who are potentially eligible for compensation are described in detail in section 4 of this report. The incidence rates for each of the compensable diseases are determined by combining the background incidence rate for each disease with the induced incidence rate for each disease from concussion?related injuries. Because the compensable diseases have been the subject of numerous epidemiological studies, there is a reasonable amount of research available to effectively determine incidence rates by age. An extensive review of the available literature and research was conducted as part of this analysis to determine the incidence of each disease by age. There is far less quantitative data available concerning the induced incidence of these diseases caused by concussive injuries. A review of the available research in this area, particularly with respect to football?related injuries and concussions, was undertaken. However, it was still necessary to make some assumptions regarding induced incidence rates. The sources of data and assumptions that have been applied in the life cycle model to determine incidence rates are described in further detail in section 5 and Appendix A of this report. The compensation amounts used in the analysis for each disease are based on the compensation matrix in the Settlement Agreement. These compensation amounts include adjustments for age at the date of diagnosis to account for background incidence and for years played in the NFL to account for risk exposure. A further description of the compensation amounts and the adjustment factors is presented in section 6 of this report. 4. Database of Former Players, Living and Deceased Database of Former Players An essential input for the analysis is a comprehensive database of information about the population of former NFL players who are eligible for the settlement. In this case extensive historical data are available from a variety of authoritative sources, and it has been possible to combine different databases to compile the relevant information for the entire population of 13 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 15 of 71 Privileged and Cent?itientiai former NFL players, including those still living and those that are deceased. The population of former NFL players was identi?ed by combining information from four primary sources: (1) the database of NF players who had already ?led claims during the pre?settlement period,9 (2) the NFL player database owned and maintained by STATS, Inc.,10 (3) a database of former players provided by the NFL, and (4) a database of practice/development squad players also provided by the NFL. These four databases were merged, duplicate records were removed, and additional research and analysis was done to update de?cient player records to produce the most complete list of former NFL players possible. This analysis identi?ed a total of 21,07 0 former NFL players who may be eligible for compensation. As shown in Table 4-1, this included 19,434 players who are currently alive or are deceased but have ?led a claim, and 1,636 players who died between the years 2000 to 2013 but have not ?led a claim. Table 4?1 Former Players Potentially Eligible for Compensation Source Count Living Database of players who ?led claims1 4,207 NFL Database 13,340 STATS Database 1,349 NFL Practice/Develoment Squad Database 538 Subtotal Deceased, 2000-2013 1,636 Grand Total 21,070 1 This count includes 76 former NFL players who are deceased that have ?led a claim. In this analysis it has been assumed that former players, who were deceased in the period from 2000 to 2013, including those with a diagnosis of CTE, are eligible for compensation. Former 9 Since this analysis was completed additional claims have been ?led by former NFL players and their representatives and claims continue to be ?led. These piayers are inciuded in the population used in the anaiysis and do not affect the outcome. ?0 STATS Inc. is a service provider to the NFL that collects and maintains game and player statistics. STATS, Inc. is considered one of the leading sources of historical, current and real-time sports data and statistics. 14 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 16 of 71 Privileged and Confidentiai players who died prior to 2006 are not eligible under the Settlement Agreement absent a separate determination of eligibility. The STATS and NFL databases include more data items than were needed for this analysis. The analysis makes use of variables such as age, date of birth, date of death, number of years played, and speci?c years played. In merging the databases from the different sources, a number of issues were encountered: In the database of claims already ?led, 206 of the records did not match to the NFL or STATS databases. Among these 40% provided no playing history. However, based on further research playing history was found for 17%. For 80% of the 206 cases, reference to the player?s football experience was found through online sources. None of the unmatched cases were removed from the database. 0 There were a total of 3,700 players included in the NFL database but not in the STATS database. Of these, 40% were practice players. Nearly all of the non?practice players had fewer than 2 seasons playing experience. 0 Merging the three databases indicates that there may be an additional 1,349 eligible living inactive players. However, this count may be an overstatement for two reasons: (1) some STATS players may be deceased, but have no recorded date of death and, (2) some STATS players may be currently employed by the NFL. There were also a number of issues encountered with respect to the deceased players in the databases. The STATS database included information for 5,930 deceased players dating as far back as 1925. The NFL database included only 1,617 deceased former players but it covered a shorter historical period. The NFL database contains player records only since 1980 while the STATS database includes some 2,286 records for players deceased prior to 1980. In the more recent period beginning in 2000, the STATS database includes 1,515 deceased player records compared to 981 in the NFL database. Merging, matching and de?duplicating the NFL, STATS and ?led claims data sets identi?ed a total of 1,636 non-?ling deceased players who died in the period from 2000 to 2013. Pro?le of Former NFL Players Age and Eligible Seasons Played The analysis examines the entire life cycle of each living former NFL player in the population in order to determine whether he will die of natural causes or be diagnosed with a compensable disease and when that will happen. Importantly, as discussed elsewhere in this report, the amount of any monetary award is highly dependent on the age of a player when he is diagnosed with a compensable disease and on the number of years he played in the NFL. Table 4-2 below shows the current age pro?le of former players grouped into different categories all players, non-?ling players that are currently living, players that have already ?led claims, and players that are deceased and no claim has been ?led on their behalf. As this table shows, 15 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 17 of 71 Privileged and Confidential the average age of all players is 50.5 years, and 36% of all players are currently aged 55 or older. For those who are 55 or older, the age discount reduces the maximum award amount by approximately two?thirds (except in the rare cases of ALS). Table 4-2 Pro?le of Former NFL Players by Age All Players Living/Not Yet Filed Already Filed Deceased/Not Yet Filed Age Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Under 45 8,354 40% 6,744 44% 1,502 36% 108 7% 45 - 49 2,368 11% 1,831 122,802 13% 2,095 141,794 9% 1,261 1,514 7% 1,026 1,291 1,007 221 14% 80+ 1,171 6% 423 3% 53 1% 695 42% Total 21,070 100% 15,227 l00% 4,207 100% 1,636 100% Average Age 50.5 47.9 51.0 73.3 Table 4?3 below shows the pro?le of former players based on the number of years played in the NF also grouped into the four different categories: all players, players who have not yet ?led and are currently living, players that have already ?led claims, and players that are deceased and no claim has been ?led on their behalf. As this table shows, the average number of years played for all players is 4.1 years and 48% of all players played less than 3 years. For those who played less than 3 years, the years played discount reduces the maximum award amounts by 50% to 90%. The average number of years played for the 15,227 currently living players who have not yet ?led was 3.4 years, which would result in a years?played discount of 40% on average from the maximum award amounts. The Settlement Agreement uses the concept of ?eligible season? in determining whether to apply any discount. In the Settlement Agreement, an ?eligible season? is a season in which the player was on the active roster for 3 or more regular season or postseason games, or on the practice squad roster for 8 or more games. The databases of former NFL players generally identi?ed the calendar years that a player played. The analysis performed herein uses calendar years as the basis for determining the number of eligible seasons and therefore may overestimate the number of eligible seasons played. 16 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 18 of 71 Friyiieged and Confidential Table 4?3 Pro?le of Former NFL I?layels by Years Played Years All Players Living/Not Yet Filed Already Filed Deceased/Not Yet Filed d1 Count Pe ree nt Count Peree nt Count Peree nt Count Percent <1 2,247 1 1% 2,200 14% 39 1% 8 0% 1 5,041 24% 4,287 28% 238 6% 516 32% 2 2,719 13% 2,198 14% 321 8% 200 12% 3 1,940 9% 1,407 9% 392 9% 141 9% 4 1,564 1,366 1,232 >10 1,626 Total 21,070 100% 15,227 100% 4,207 100% 1,636 100% Average Years Played 4.1 3.4 6.3 4.3 1Players who played an additional 0.5 years are included in the higheryea rs played figure,e.g.,a playerwho played 35 years is reported here as having played 4years. 5. Incidence of Compensable Diseases In order to forecast the timing and amount of monetary compensation that will be required to resolve the claims of former NFL players it is necessary to determine the incidence of compensable diseases for the population of former players over the lifetime of that population. This involves two steps: 0 Determining the background incidence of the compensable diseases in the population. The background incidence represents the rate at which these diseases are expected to arise naturally in the population, including former NFL players. 0 Determining the additional incidence of the compensable diseases that will arise in the population of former NFL players due to concussions referred to as induced incidence or risk multiplier. Compensable Injuries The Settlement Agreement identi?es 6 diagnostic categories as the compensable diseases: 0 ALS 17 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 19 of 71 Priviieged and Corit?identiai 0 Death with CTE12 0 Parkinson?s 0 Alzheimer?s 0 Level 2 Neurocognitive Impairment13 0 Level 1.5 Neurocognitive Impairment For each of these diseases extensive review of the medical and scienti?c literature was performed to estimate the background and induced incidence rates. The following sections describe the approach used to determine the background incidence, induced incidence and total incidence estimated for the population of former NFL players. Background Incidence To determine background incidence, this analysis has relied upon the best available published literature and research. A detailed description of the sources and methods used to determine background incidence is provided in Appendix A. The most severe diseases, referred to as terminal diseases, are de?ned in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-S) and the World Health Organization?s International Classi?cation of Diseases (9th and 10th editions) (ICD-9 and ICD-IO). Because there has generally been extensive research and study of these diseases, information on background incidence rates (or prevalence rates) is reasonably available. As described in Appendix A, in order to arrive at a consistent measure and application of incidence rates, certain methods and assumptions were made including: 0 Converting Prevalence to Incidence in cases where only prevalence data were available, prevalence was converted to incidence. Extrapolating data for older age groups to younger ages in cases where data were available only for speci?c older populations over age 65), the incidence was extrapolated to younger ages by de?ning the rate for 20-year-olds as 1/100th of the rate for 65-year?olds and increasing the rate through this age range by ?tting an exponential curve. 0 Exponential smoothing of data aggregated by age ranges for diseases where data were provided only by age ranges, the incidence rate was assigned to the midpoint of the age range and extrapolated to each age by ?tting an exponential curve. 0 Adjustment for history of stroke because Alzheimer?s and neurocognitive disorders are sometimes attributed to a prior history of stroke, the incidence of these diseases was adjusted to account for this joint causality. According to epidemiological research, 9.1% '2 Under the terms of the Settlement Agreement, only pre-settlement diagnoses of Death with CTB are eligible for compensation. Accordingly, the analysis does not forecast future cases of Death with CTE, and there is no corresponding induced incidence prospectiveiy. Also, this analysis used con?rmed cases of CTE. ?3 Estimates of the incidence of Level 1.5 and Level 2 neurocognitive disorders were based on incidence for dementia as described in the methodoiogy section of this report. 18 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 20 of 71 Privileged. and {Ioni?idcntial of Alzheimer?s patients and 8.4% of dementia patients had a history of stroke prior to the onset of these diseases. Since compensation to claimants who have a prior stroke history will be discounted by 75%, the overall incidence of Alzheimer?s and dementia was adjusted to account for this instead of forecasting them separately. The incidence of Alzheimer?s and dementia were reduced by an amount equal to 75% of the number of cases with joint causality (116., 25% of those with a prior history of stroke are included in the background incidence). Adjustment for Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) The Settlement Agreement provides a 75 percent discount to monetary award amounts in cases where there has been a prior incident of TBI for all disease categories except ALS. This analysis did not assume any adjustments for prior incidence of TBI. Therefore to the extent that such cases occur, the analysis will tend to overestimate the total cost of monetary awards. Induced Incidence Research and literature concerning the potential increased incidence for the compensable diseases is limited, and some of it has historically been controversial. In this analysis peer? reviewed literature has been given priority, and controversial studies have been excluded. Studies of comparable sports injuries have also been relied upon. However, it was still necessary to develop and apply assumptions concerning the induced risk effect of concussions among former NFL players. For Alzheimer?s disease, Parkinson?s and dementia, a risk multiple of 2.0 for ages 20 through 60 was used. After age 60, the risk multiple was assumed, based on available literature, to be more additive than multiplicative, and so the adjusted induced incidence is calculated as the background incidence at those ages, plus the incremental difference between the incidence rates at age 60 for each of the diseases. For ALS, a similar methodology was applied for the various ages, but using a multiplier for ages 20-60 of 1.4. A detailed description of the sources and methods used to determine background incidence is provided in Appendix A. Total Incidence For each of the compensable diseases, the background incidence and induced incidence were combined to yield the total incidence among former NFL players. A summary of the incidence and counts of players for each compensable disease for the most serious injury/disease type is shown in Table 5-1 below. In cases where players contracted more than one type of injury, only the most serious injury is included here (122., no double counting). l9 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 21 of 71 Privileged and Coni?ident?iai Table 51 Estimated Total Incidence by Injury/Disease Type for Former NFL Players Most Serious Injury/ Total Incidence - Background and Induced Disease Type Count ALS 31 0.15% Death 46 0.22% Parkinson's 24 0.1 1% Alzheimer?s 2,946 13.98% Level 2 2,878 13.66% Level 1.5 0 0.00% Deceased, No Disease 15,145 71.88% Total 21,070 100.00% Note: All Level 1.5 are assumed to progress to Level 2, therefore the incidence count is the same for both impairment levels As the table shows, taking into account both background and induced incidence, approximately 72% of the total population of former NFL players will die of natural causes unrelated to one of the compensable diseasesestimated will be diagnosed with a compensable disease, 49% (2,878) will be diagnosed with Level 2 neurocognitive disorder as their most severe compensable disease. It is estimated that 3,047 former NFL players will be diagnosed with one of the severe terminal diseases about 97% of those being diagnosed with Alzheimer?s. Total Incidence by Disease To determine how the incidence of each of the compensable diseases will affect the cash flow requirements for claim resolution it is critical to know how many cases will be diagnosed each year and then to compute the discounts that would be applied to the compensation amount for the players? age and number of years played in the NFL. The life cycle forecasting model estimates this for each player and each year. The following tables summarize the incidence and provide averages of players? ages and years played for each disease. For each of these tables, the columns represent the following: 0 Year of Diagnosis the period of years for which the incidence data have been summarized. 20 Case Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 22 of 71 Privileged and Confidential 0 Players Still Living count of players who are alive at the beginning of the period. Over the course of each period, the count of players is reduced by the number who are deceased by any cause. 0 Number Diagnosed the number of players who will be diagnosed with that particular disease during the period (prior to application of participation rates). 0 Percent Diagnosed the percent of players still living at the beginning of the period who are diagnosed with the disease during the period. 0 Average Age the average age of the players who are diagnosed with the disease during the period. 0 Average Years Played the average number of years played in the NFL by the players diagnosed with the disease during the period. Players may be diagnosed with more than one compensable injury/disease over time. For example, a former player may qualify for Level 2.0 and then contract Alzheimer?s later in life. Most of the counts shown in the tables of this report include only the most severe compensable disease that a player contracts in his lifetime. In the example above, the player is counted only as contracting Alzheimer?s in Table 5?1 even though he had a prior diagnosis of Level 2.0. However, compensation is paid at the time each disease is contracted. If the player is ?rst diagnosed with a neurocognitive disorder and is then later diagnosed with an even more serious disease, he is paid at the time of the initial diagnosis and then he is paid again at the time of the more serious disease diagnosis. The second payment for the more serious disease diagnosis is a net amount that recognizes he had already received some compensation for his injuries. Tables 5-2 through 5?7 show the incidence of all injuries. The same player discussed above who was only counted as having contracted Alzheimer?s, will be counted twice in the examples below once as he is eligible for Level 2.0 and again when he contracts Alzheimer?s. This potential double counting means that the disease counts in Tables 5-2 through 5-7 exceed the counts in Table 5-1 and other tables in the report that count only the most serious injury. Table 5-2 shows the estimated incidence of ALS by multi-year periods and a pro?le of the average ages and years played for players diagnosed with this disease. As this table shows, there will be an estimated 36 cases of ALS among former NFL players who have an average age of 60 and played an average of 4.3 years. 21 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 23 of 71 Privileged aad Cei?i?dcatial Table 5?2 Total Incidence and Pro?le for ALS, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Ave rage Ave rage Years Diagnosis Living Diagnosed Diagnosed Age Played <2006 21,070 6 0.03% 48.0 3.7 2006 2010 20,343 4 0.02% 50.8 8.3 2011 - 2020 19,699 3 0.02% 56.7 2.0 2021 - 2030 17,595 6 0.03% 48.8 5.6 2031 - 2040 14,501 6 0.04% 62.7 3.3 2041 - 2050 10,635 4 0.04% 69.8 2.4 2051 - 2060 6,632 5 0.08% 77.2 5.3 2061 2070 3,114 2 0.06% 82.5 2.3 2071 - 2080 850 0 0.00% 2081 67 0 0.00% - Total 36 0.17% 60.0 4.3 Table 5-3 shows the estimated incidence of Death with CTE and a pro?le of the average ages and years played for players diagnosed with this disease. In the case of Death with CTE, this analysis assumes that only those cases that had a con?rmed diagnosis pie-settlement will be compensated. Therefore the model does not forecast any futures cases of CTE. As the table shows, there are 46 cases of Death with CTE among former NFL players who have an average age of 60.3 and have played an average of 7.9 years. 22 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 24 of 71 Privileged and ?011?ti01??itti Table 5?3 Total Incidence and Pro?le for Death with CTE, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Average Average Years Diagnosis Living Diagnos Diagnos Age Playe <2006 21,070 3 0.00% 44.0 1 1.3 2006 2010 20,343 18 0.00% 57.7 7.3 2011 - 2020 19,699 25 0.00% 64.1 8.0 2021 - 2030 17,595 0 0.00% - 2031 - 2040 14,501 0 0.00% - 2041 - 2050 10,635 0 0.00% - 2051 - 2060 6,632 0 0.00% - - 2061 - 2070 3,114 0 0.00% - - 2071 - 2080 850 0 0.00% - 208] 67 0 0.00% - Total 46 0.00% 60.3 7.9 Note: This analysis assumes that only those cases that had a con?rmed diagnosis pre-settlement wiil be compensated. Therefore, no future cases of Death with CT have been forecast for compensation. Table 5-4 shows the estimated incidence of Parkinson?s by multi-year periods and a pro?le of the average ages and years played for players diagnosed with this disease. As this table shows, there will be an estimated 25 cases of Parkinson?s among former NFL players who have an average age of 75.5 and played an average of 4.9 years. Table 5-4 Total Incidence and Pro?le for Parkinson's, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Average Average Years Diagnosis Living Diagnosed Diagnosed Age Played <2006 21,070 1 0.00% 56.0 10.0 2006 2010 20,343 2 0.01% 78.5 6.0 2011 - 2020 19,699 4 0.02% 81.5 5.5 2021 - 2030 17,595 6 0.03% 71.3 5.3 2031 - 2040 14,501 3 0.02% 72.0 7.0 2041 - 2050 10,635 4 0.04% 80.3 3.9 2051 - 2060 6,632 3 0.05% 72.7 2.7 2061 - 2070 3,114 2 0.06% 83.0 1.3 2071 - 2080 850 0 0.00% - 2081 67 0 0.00% - Total 25 0.12% 75.5 4.9 23 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 25 of 71 Priviieged and {fen?dential Table 5-5 shows the estimated incidence of Alzheimer?s by multi-year periods and a pro?le of the average ages and years played for players diagnosed with this disease. As this table shows, there will be an estimated 2,949 cases of Alzheimer?s among former NFL players who have an average age of 77.9 and played an average of 4.1 years. Table 5-5 Total Incidence and Pro?le for Alzheime r's, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Average Average Years Diagnosis Living Diagnos ed Diagnose (1 Age Playe <2006 21,070 163 0.77% 73.6 3.7 2006 - 2010 20,343 48 0.24% 76.8 3.8 2011 - 2020 19,699 314 1.59% 72.7 5.0 2021 2030 17,595 431 2.45% 72.2 4.6 2031 2040 14,501 562 3.88% 75.9 4.3 2041 2050 10,635 556 5.23% 79.0 4.3 2051 2060 6,632 479 7.22% 82.1 3.9 2061 2070 3,114 296 9.51% 84.8 3.1 2071 - 2080 850 94 11.06% 90.1 2.1 2081 67 6 8.96% 95.7 1.3 Totai 2,949 14.00% 77.9 4. 1 Table 5-6 shows the estimated incidence of Level 2 neurocognitive disorders by multi-year periods and a pro?le of the average ages and years played for players diagnosed with this disease. As this table shows, there will be an estimated 3,3 54 cases of Level 2 disorders diagnosed among former NFL players who have an average age of 77.2 and played an average of 4.2 years. The incidence of neurocognitive disorders was estimated using data for the incidence of dementia as a proxy for Level 2 disorders. It was also further assumed that Level 2 disorders are progressive and every case would initially be diagnosed as a Level 1.5 disorder. In this analysis, incidence of dementia were treated as Level 2 disorders and then regressed backward by 3 years to determine the onset of the Level 1.5 disorder. The result of this can be seen in Table 5-7 where the number of diagnosed cases of Level 1.5 disorders is the same 3,354 as for Level 2.0, but the average age is 3 years younger at 74.2. 24 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 26 of 71 l??ivileged arid. {flonfitlemiial Table 5?6 Total Incidence and Pro?le for Level 2, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Average Ave mge Years Diagnosis Living Diagnosed Diagnosed Age Played <2006 21,070 206 0.98% 74.5 3.5 2006 - 2010 20,343 71 0.35% 67.4 5.7 2011 - 2020 19,699 334 1.70% 73.6 5.2 2021 2030 17,595 541 3.07% 75.2 4.9 2031 2040 14,501 615 4.24% 75.3 4.3 2041 - 2050 10,635 648 6.09% 77.5 4.0 2051 2060 6,632 537 8.10% 80.1 4.1 2061 2070 3,114 325 10.44% 83.9 2.9 2071 - 2080 850 72 8.47% 88.3 1.9 2081 67 5 7.46% 95.8 1.4 Total 3,354 15.92% 77.2 4.2 Table 5?7 Total Incidence and Pro?le for Level 1.5, by Year Year of Players Still Number Percent Average Average Years Diagnosis Living Diagnosed Diagnosed Age Played <2006 21,070 237 1.12% 70.7 3.8 2006 - 2010 20,343 71 0.35% 61.4 6.2 2011 2020 19,699 452 2.29% 71.9 5.0 2021 - 2030 17,595 571 3.25% 72.3 4.8 2031 - 2040 14,501 631 4.35% 72.7 4.3 2041 - 2050 10,635 638 6.00% 75.2 4.0 2051 - 2060 6,632 486 7.33% 78.2 3.7 2061 - 2070 3,114 230 7.39% 82.4 2.7 2071 - 2080 850 38 4.47% 87.2 1.4 2081 67 0 0.00% - Total 3,354 15.92% 74.2 4.2 25 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 27 of 71 Frivilegerl and {Zont?itiential 6. Compensation Compensation of Living Former Players The compensation amounts used in the analysis are found in Exhibit 3 to the Settlement Agreement. This Monetary Award Grid (Grid) is shown in Table 6-1 below. The Grid de?nes maximum amounts to be paid to former players based upon their diagnoses. These maximum amounts are then subject to adjustments based on two discount factors: (1) the player?s age at the time of diagnosis, and (2) the number of years played in the NFL. These adjustment factors were considered appropriate to account for background incidence and exposure risk. Players who are diagnosed with a compensable disease before the age of 45, and played in the NF for 5 or more years are eligible for the maximum compensation amounts. Adjustments are made for each year above the age of 45, and there is a further reduction to the compensation amount for each half year of playing time less than 5 years. Table 6-1 below shows the maximum amounts to be paid under the compensation matrix for each disease category at different age ranges.i4 Table 6-1 Monetary Award Grid, by Age at Time of Qualifying Diagnosis Age Group ALS Death Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 2 Level 1.5 Under 45 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $1,500,000 45 - 49 $4,500,000 $3,200,000 $2,470,000 $2,300,000 $1,900,000 $950,000 50 54 $4,000,000 $2,300,000 $1,900,000 $1,600,000 $1,200,000 $600,000 55 - 59 $3,500,000 $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,150,000 $950,000 $475,000 60 - 64 $3,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $950,000 $580,000 $290,000 65 - 69 $2,500,000 $980,000 $760,000 $620,000 $380,000 $190,000 70 - 74 $1,750,000 $600,000 $475,000 $3 80,000 $210,000 $105,000 75 - 79 $1,000,000 $160,000 $145,000 $130,000 $80,000 $40,000 80+ $300,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $25,000 Table 6-2 below shows the percentage discount applied to the compensation amounts based on the number of years played. This ranges from a zero percent discount for 5 or more playing ?4 Table 6-1 shows average amounts over ?ve year ranges. The actual award grid provides different amounts for each age from 45 to 80. 26 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 28 of 71 Priviieged and Contidentiai years up to a 90 percent reduction in the payment amount for those who played 0.5 years or less.15 Table 6?2 Discounts to Monetary Awards for Years Played in the NFL Years All Players Piayed Discount Count Percent 5+ 0% 7,496 36% 4.5 10% 62 0% 4.0 20% 1,449 2.0 60% 2,209 1080% 5,041 24% 0.5 90% 2,247 1 1% Total 21,070 100% he E?ect of Age, Years Played in the NFL and In?ation on Settlement Amounts The Settlement Agreement provides maximum monetary awards to players who are less than 45 years old when they are diagnosed with a compensable disease and have played in the NFL for 5 or more years. There is a reduction in the compensation levels based on age and years played beginning with players age 45 or older and players with less than 5 years of experience in the NFL. The Settlement Agreement also provides for an escalation in the compensation amounts to adjust for inflation. These adjustments have a signi?cant effect on the average amount of compensation paid to the former players and a corresponding signi?cant effect on the total compensation paid by the fund. The magnitude of the effect of age, playing time and in?ation depends heavily on the average age of the players when contracting a compensabie disease, the number of years the individual played in the NFL and the year the disease is contracted. Table 6-3 summarizes these variables. 15 Players who played on practice squads were assigned 0.5 years of eligible playing time for each year on a practice squad. The Settlement Agreement applies a 97.5% reduction for players with no eligible seasons. 1 have assumed that all players have at least 0.5 years played. 27 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 29 of 71 Privileged amt Corr?tleutial The table shows the average age at the time of diagnosis with the most serious disease is approximately 77 years of age for both groups. Therefore due to the average age at the time of onset of the disease, compensation amounts are subject to signi?cant reductions from the maximum awards. Table 6-3 also shows that 60% of all players estimated to receive compensation have fewer than the 5 years needed to receive the maximum monetary award. The years played variable shows that the players that have already ?led have signi?cantly more years played in the NFL than the future ?lers. Table 6-3 Selected Characteristics of Former Players: Age, Years Played and Year of Contracting Disease/Injury Years Played Age At: Percent of Players 2014 Year of Most with Less Than Average Years Year of Most Player Category or at Death Serious Injury 5 Years Played Played Serious Injury Already Filed 52.0 76.3 35% 6.3 2037 Future Filer 51.2 77.7 73% 3.5 2039 A11 Filers 51.4 77.4 60% 4.4 2039 Table 64 shows the effect of these adjustments for age and years played. Without any adjustments, players would be compensated at the maximum value for their injury shown in the table as the Maximum Monetary Award. Table 6?4 Effect of Age, Years Played and In?ation on Average and Total Compensation by Injury Category Value After Value After Age and Maximum Age Adjustment Years Played Adjustment Actual Final Value Monetary Average Total Average Total Average Total Most Serious Injury] Disease Award Payment Compensation Payment Compensation Payment Compensation millions) millions) millions) Compensable Injury/Disease ALS $5,000,000 $2,930,000 $52.8 $2,120,000 $38.1 $2,740,000 $49.4 Death $4,000,000 $1,910,000 $85.8 $1,440,000 $64.9 $1,440,000 $64.9 Parkinson's $3,500,000 $320,000 $4.5 $190,000 $2.7 $230,000 $3.2 Alzheimer?s $3,500,000 $340,000 $593.8 $190,000 $340.7 $270,000 $474.9 Level 2 $3,000,000 $210,000 $368.8 $140,000 $246.5 $190,000 $341.0 Level 1.5 $1,500,000 na na na na na na Total, Compensable na na na $693.0 na $933.4 Note: All Level 1.5 are assumed to progress to Level 2. All compensation categorized by most serious injury 28 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 30 of 71 Priviiegcd and: Confidential For example, the average payment for diagnosed cases of ALS is $2.93 million rather than the maximum award amount of $5 million a 40% reduction. The average age-adjusted payment for players being diagnosed with Alzheimer?s is $0.34 million, about 90% less than the maximum award amount of $3.5 million. Adjusting for years played has a less substantial effect on award values after the age adjustment. For example as Table 6?4 shows, for former players diagnosed with ALS the average payment after the adjustment for number of years played is $2.1 million a 28% reduction. The average payment to players diagnosed with Alzheimer?s disease is reduced from $0.34 million to $0.19 million. Finally, adjusting for in?ation increases average and total compensation. Again, as Table 6-4 shows, adjusting for in?ation increases average payments by approximately 30% for ALS and 40% for Alzheimer?s, 20% for Parkinson?s, no change for death with CTE and approximately 40% for Level 2 neurocognitive disorders. However, the actual ?nal average award amounts for each disease are signi?cantly below the maximum monetary award amounts, resulting in an inflation adjusted total compensation amount of $933.4 million. Table 6-5 shows the Monetary Award Grid as it would apply to players who played 3 years in the NFL, 119., after the discount for 3 playing years is applied. As this table shows, the maximum compensation amounts are 40% lower than the Maximum Award Grid for players who played 5 years or more. Table 6-5 Monetary Award Grid, for Players who Played 3 years in NFL at Time of Qualifying Diagnosis1 Age Group ALS Death Parkinson's Alzheimer's Levei 2 Level 1.5 Under 45 $3,000,000 $2,400,000 $2,100,000 00,000 $1,800,000 $900,000 45 - 49 $2,700,000 $1,920,000 $1,480,000 $1,380,000 $1,140,000 $570,000 50 - 54 $2,400,000 $1,380,000 $1,140,000 $960,000 $720,000 $360,000 55 59 $2,100,000 $840,000 $780,000 $690,000 $570,000 $290,000 60 - 64 $1,800,000 $720,000 $600,000 $570,000 $350,000 $170,000 65 - 69 $1,500,000 $590,000 $460,000 $370,000 $230,000 $110,000 70 - 74 $1,050,000 $360,000 $290,000 $230,000 $130,000 $60,000 75 - 79 $600,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $50,000 $20,000 80+ $180,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $15,000 1Assumes no other offsets for stroke, TBI, or non-participation in BAP. Table 6-6 shows the estimated average value of monetary awards that will be paid for each disease across the various age groups. These average awards take into account both the age discount and the years played discount. 29 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 31 of 71 Table 6-6 Average Monetary Awards by Age Group at Time of Qualifying Diagnosis for Players, Fully Discounted i3riviiezgeti and Confidential Age Group ALS Death Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 2 Level 1.5 Under 45 $2,860,000 $2,870,000 na $1,600,000 $2,980,000 $1,490,000 45 49 $2,390,000 $3,490,000 na $1,160,000 $1,540,000 $770,000 50 54 $2,160,000 $1,810,000 $452,000 $740,000 $830,000 $420,000 55 59 $610,000 $2,120,000 $1,420,000 $500,000 $490,000 $250,000 60 - 64 $1,060,000 $670,000 na $430,000 $310,000 $160,000 65 - 69 $520,000 $1,100,000 $200,000 $270,000 $140,000 $70,000 70 - 74 $470,000 $550,000 $100,500 $150,000 $80,000 $40,000 75 - 79 $280,000 $160,000 $106,800 $50,000 $20,000 $10,000 80+ $50,000 $40,000 $22,500 $10,000 0,000 $10,000 ]Note the analysis assumes that all Level 1.5 claimants progress to more serious injuries. Thus all Level 1.5 amounts are fully netted against the amounts computed for the players ultimate most serious injury. na - No former players were in this age/injury category Table 6-7 shows the estimated total amount of the monetary awards that will be paid for each disease in each age group. These total award amounts take into account both the age discount and the years played discount. Table 6?7 Total Monetary Awards by Age Group at Time of Qualifying Diagnosis for All Players, Fully Discounted Age Group ALS Death Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 2 LBVBI 1?51 Under 45 $17,140,000 $22,980,000 na 00,000 $50,650,000 $25,330,000 45 - 49 80,000 $13,950,000 na $37,250,000 $16,890,000 $8,450,000 50 54 $6,490,000 $10,840,000 $452,000 $43,800,000 $20,630,000 $10,320,000 55 - 59 $610,000 $6,370,000 $1,420,000 $62,570,000 $32,540,000 $16,270,000 60 64 $4,220,000 $2,010,000 na $58,350,000 $38,440,000 $19,220,000 65 69 $2,080,000 $5,490,000 $600,000 $58,140,000 $45,420,000 $22,710,000 70 - 74 $1,890,000 $2,740,000 $402,000 $45,220,000 $31,060,000 $15,530,000 75 79 $280,000 $1,140,000 $534,000 $23,350,000 $12,990,000 $6,500,000 80+ $250,000 $210,000 $225,000 $20,810,000 $17,460,000 $8,730,000 1Note the analysis assumes that all Level 1.5 claimants progress to more serious injuries. Thus all Level 1.5 amounts are ?rlly netted against the amounts computed for the player's ultimate most serious injury. na No former p1ayers were in this age/injury category Examples of Monetary Award Calculations In order to illustrate how the monetary award computation is applied, several hypothetical cases are presented in the following tables. For simplicity, it is assumed that the diagnosis occurs in 2013 or earlier. This means that the nominal amounts are not in?ated since the in?ation adjustment starts in 2014. These examples show the following four cases: 30 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 32 of 71 Privileged and {foniidential Table 6-8A shows the monetary award calculation in the case of a 40-year-old player who had 7 playing years and was diagnosed with Alzheimer?s with no prior history of stroke or In this case, there would be no age or years played discount and no joint causality discount, so the player would receive the maximum matrix award value. Table 6-8A Example of Monetary Award Calcuation Case: 40 years old, 7 years playing, Alzheimer's diagnosis, no Prior Stroke or TBI Amount Maximum Disease Compensation - 100% $3,500,000 Less: Age Discount 0% $0 Less: Years Played Discount 0% $0 Less: Prior Stroke/TBI Discount 0% $0 Final Award of Maximum/Payment Amount) 100% $3,500,000 Table 6-8B shows the monetary award calculation in the case of a 57?year?old who played in the NFL for 3.5 years and was diagnosed with Alzheimer?s with no prior history of stroke or TBI. In this case, an age discount of 67% is applied and there is a discount for years played of 30%. The resulting payment would be 23% of the full matrix value (a 77% discount from maximum value). 31 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 33 of 71 Privileged and Con?dential Table 6-8B Example of Monetary Award Calcuation Case: 57 years old, 3.5 years playing, Alzheimer's diagnosis, no Prior Stroke or TBI Amount Maximum Disease Compensation 100% $3,500,000 Less: Age Discount 67% $2,350,000 Less: Years Played Discount -30% -$345,000 Less: Prior Stroke/TB} Discount 0 $0 Final Award of Maximum/Payment Amount) 23% $805,000 Table 6-8C shows the monetary award calculation in the case of a 62-year?old who played in the NFL for 2 years and was diagnosed with Alzheimer?s with no prior history of stroke or TBI. In this case, an age discount of 73% is applied and there is a discount for years played of 60%. The resulting payment would be 11% of the full matrix value (an 89% discount from maximum value). Tabie 6-8C Example of Monetary Award Calcuation Case: 62 years old, 2 years playing, Alzheimer?s diagnosis, no Prior Stroke or TBI Amount Maximum Disease Compensation 100% $3,500,000 Less: Age Discount -73% -$2,550,000 Less: Years Played Discount -60% $570,000 Less: Prior Stroke/T81 Discount 0 $0 Final Award of Maximum/Payment Amount) 1 1% $380,000 32 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 34 of 71 Priviicged and. (Tent?identiai Table 6-8D shows the monetary award calculation in the case of a 72-year-old who played in the NFL for 10 years and was diagnosed with Alzheimer?s with no prior history of stroke or TBI. In this case, an age discount of 89% is applied and there is no discount for years played because he played more than 5 years. The resulting payment would be 3% of the full matrix value (a 97% discount from maximum value). Table 6-8D Example of Monetary Award Calcuation Case: 72 years old, 10 years playing, Alzheimer's diagnosis, with Prior Stoke Amount Maximum Disease Compensation 100% $3,500,000 Less: Age Discount -89% -$3,120,000 Less: Years Played Discount 0% $0 Less: Prior Stroke/TBI Discount -75% -$285,000 Final Award of Maximum/Payment Amount) 3% $95,000 7. Cost Estimate The analysis forecasts that a total of 3,596 former NFL players who participate in the settlement will contract compensable diseases over the life of the program. The majority of these compensable diseases, about 98%, will be cases of Alzheimer?s or Level 2 neurocognitive disorders. The total nominal cost for all compensable diseases including administration costs is estimated to be $933 million over the life of the program. Total Compensable Claims and Compensation Table 7-1 provides a summary of compensable claims and total compensation by type of injury. The overwhelming percent of compensable claims and compensation are paid to former players with Alzheimer?s disease or Level 2 neurocognitive disorders? 98% of compensable claims and 87% of compensation. The distribution of claims reflects the relative probabilities of the occurrence of the various diseases in the general population combined with the additional incidence related to concussions. 33 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 35 of 71 Privileged and Confidential Table 7-1 Former Players with Compensable Concussion-Related Injury by Type of Injury with Total Compensation millions) Total Claims Total Compensation Most Serious Injury/ Disease Count Percent Amount Percent Compensable Injury/Disease ALS 18 0.5% $49.4 5.3% Death 46 1.3% $64.9 7.0% Parkinson's 14 0.4% $3.2 0.3% Alzheimer's 1,757 48.9% $474.9 50.9% Level 2 1,761 49.0% $341.0 36.5% Level 1.5 na na na na Total, Compensable 3,596 100.0% $933.4 100.0% Not Compensated 17,474 na na na Grand Total 21,070 na $933.4 100.0% Note: All compensation categorized by most serious injury. All Level 1.5 claims are assumed to progress to Level 2 and more serious levels. $248 million is paid to former players at Level 1.5. This amount is included in the category of their most serious disease as follows: $212 milion paid at Level 2; $34 million to Alzheimer's and $2 million to other disease types. Players are not compensated because they did not experience a compensable injury or did not file a claim. Timing of Compensation Payments and Funding Table 7-2 shows the timing of payments to former players and the receipt of funding by the settlement fund through the payment of the last compensable claim. The timing and total amount of funding are suf?cient to pay all claims. 0 Compensation payments in the ?rst ?ve years are high because there are a relatively large number of former NFL players who have indicated they intend to ?le a claim. These claimants include former players who have already been diagnosed with a disease and will be paid in the ?rst few years of the settlement fund. After these claims are resolved, the fund will be receiving and paying claims at a signi?cantly lower rate as the filing of future claims depends on the timing of the manifestation of future compensable injuries. 0 The initial funding amount of approximately $364 million (55% of the total funding) is designed to provide enough assets to pay the compensable claims already identified and to cover the startup costs of the claim processing facility while still leaving a significant 34 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 36 of 71 Priviieged and Confidentiai asset. The remaining assets are supplemented with an additional $311 million, which is paid in annual installments through 2033. At that time the remaining assets of the settlement fund (with earnings) are suf?cient to pay all remaining claims. 0 The Fund Balance increases through 2034 as the additional funding and earnings exceed the required amount to pay claims. The fund balance begins to decline after that as the settlement fund continues to pay claims, but with earnings as its only source of revenue - there is no additional funding contributed after 2033. The last claim is paid in the early 20805, at which time the fund is estimated to have a balance of approximately $80 million.16 Table 7 ?2 Settlement Fund Compensation Payments, Funding and Earnings Through the Payment of the Last Compensable Claim millions) End of Period Compensation Fund Time Period Amountl Funding Earnings Balance 2014 through 2018 $292.3 $364.0 $25.0 $91.6 2019 through 2023 $78.2 $103.7 $28.1 $143.8 2024 through 2028 $95.5 $103.7 $38.6 $189.0 2029 through 2038 $178.6 $103.7 $103.2 $214.0 2039 through 2048 $167.7 $0.0 $72.9 $116.2 Remaining 35 Years $133.3 $0.0 $i 03.4 $80.4 Total $945.5 $675.0 $371.2 na lIncludes processing Costs Note: Funding pius earnings is actually in excess of the amount needed to pay all claims. In?ation and Real Rate of Return A key assumption in determining whether the settlement is adequately funded is the real rate of return earned on settlement assets. 1 have assumed a 2.5% real rate of return a 4.5% nominal yield and an underlying 2.0% in?ation rate. The actual expected return is dependent on the real returns available for different types of assets and the portfolio mix adopted by the settlement administrators. 16 The $80 miliion balance in the early 20805 implies overfunding of only approximately $5 million at 2014 levels. 35 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 37 of 71 Privileged and Historical experience suggests that a real rate of return of 2.5% is at the lower level of expected returns. Returns on debt and equity both exceed 2.5% real rate of return over long periods of time. Indeed, even an extremely high reliance on low risk ?nancial assets historically has yielded more than 2.5% annually. However, because of historically low bond yields in recent years, I conservatively assumed a 2.5% return. Studies of real rates of return re?ect that over long periods of time through recent years, the real rate of return (after in?ation) on long-term US. government bonds was approximately 3.4% annually; municipal bonds yielded approximately 3.9% real return annually and equities of different categories yielded 5-6% in real return annually. Thus, any mixed portfolio of equities and long-term government bonds would have yielded a 4% to 5% annual return in real terms. The average annualized real return for a 50% equity/50% bond portfolio over the last 80+ years both for expansionary periods and for recessions exceeds Indeed, the average annual real return for recessions is 5.26%, while for expansions, it is 5.59%. Finally, an examination of mutual funds (and among them, focusing on the ones with conservative asset allocation) shows that the overwhelming majority of funds returned at least 2.5% in real terms over the last ?ve years.17 Timing of Claim Payments There will be a time lag between the time a claim is ?led and the date of disbursement of compensation. To allow for claims to be reviewed, processed (including the curing of any de?ciencies) and paid, the analysis assumes that payments for all the claims ?led within any given calendar year will be paid within 24 months (an average of 12 months) based on the following distribution of claim payments: 0 30% will be paid in the year the claim is ?led 0 40% will be paid in the year after the claim was ?led 0 30% will be paid in the second year after the claim was ?led. The analysis assumes that all of the claims that have already been ?led and have diagnoses or the player is deceased will be paid - 70% in 2015 and 30% in 201618. The model is based on a nominal rate of return on invested funds of Inflation over the life of the fund is assumed to be 2.0% per year and this rate is applied to future monetary award amounts as well as administration costs. :7 References: David Blanchett, Michael Finke and Wade D. Pfau (2013), ?Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates,? Morningstar Investment Management, January 21, 2013; Joseph Davis and Daniel Piquet (2011), ?Recessions and balanced portfolio returns,? Vanguard, October 2011, and; Thornburg Investment Management (2013), Study of Real Real Returns,? July 2013. '8 A 95% participation rate assumption is applied to claims already ?led that do not have a current diagnosis. 36 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 38 of 71 Priviiegeti anti Eoni?idential Administration Costs Based on information provided by the Claims Administrator and the CMS Lien Administrator, the following costs have been included in the cash ?ow modeling: 0 Start-up costs a total of $2 million in start-up costs for the Monetary Award Fund are assumed to occur in 2014. 0 Claim review and processing costs an average cost of $750 per claim including both valid claims and claims that will not be paid are assumed to be incurred at the time of diagnosis for valid claims. It is assumed that there will be an equal number of valid and invalid claims. Therefore the model applies a combined total cost of $1,500 to each valid claim. 0 CMS lien processing there will be a $100 processing charge to the MAP applied to each claim, which is applied to both valid and invalid claims. It is assumed that there will be an equal number of valid and invalid claims. Therefore, the model applies a combined total cost of $200 to each valid claim. All other costs for CMS lien handling are charged against individual monetary awards and does not affect the cash flow of the settlement fund. 0 Payments to the Special Master of $100,000 per year for ?ve years. Player Participation Rates The participation rate in the Settlement program among eligible former NFL players is a signi?cant factor in determining the number of claims that will be ?led and thus also the amount of funds required to resolve the claims. In order to establish an estimate of the participation rate, several factors were considered. First, experience with participation rates in other mass tort cases was reviewed. In general, participation rates in mass torts are dependent on the outreach and notice program, the lag from exposure/injury to the manifestation of a compensable disease/injury and award size. For comparison, the participation rates for various large and widely publicized class action settlements and data on consumer product recall response rates were considered: 0 Breast implant settlement achieved registrations from 30% of the eligible class members (440,000 of 1.5 million), based on an advertising-only class notification program. 0 Consumer product recall response rates range from 4% to 18% according to the US. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). In the case of former NFL players, approximately 4,200 claims were already registered at the time this analysis was prepared, which represents more than 20% of the potentially eligible population of approximately 20,200 former players.19 I understand that former players have been ?9 Additional claims have been filed since this analysis was performed. 37 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 39 of 71 Privileged and Confidential and continue to be contacted by plaintiff lawyers and others to participate. Whether continuing further efforts are likely to attract a signi?cant number of additional players is not certain. Nonetheless, it is assumed that the participation rates in this settlement will achieve high levels because the settlement has very high public visibility and contact information available through the NFL Players union and other sources that can be used in the noti?cation process is available for a large portion of the potentially eligible population. My forecast of the number of future claims and the resulting cash requirements to fund the settlement assumes that: 100% of deceased players with CTE will participate, (2) 20% of players deceased from 2000 through 2005 will participate, (3) 100% of players with a diagnosis that have already ?led claims will participate, (4) 95% of players without a diagnosis that have already filed a claim will participate and (5) 50% of the living and deceased former NFL players that have not yet ?led will ultimately participate. These assumptions yield an approximately 60% participation rate for all potentially eligible former players. The Settlement Agreement provides a Baseline Assessment Program (BAP) for players who participate in the settlement. However, if a player (who is not yet diagnosed with a compensable disease) registers to participate in the Settlement Agreement but does not participate in the baseline assessment provided for under the BAP, a 10% discount is applied to any future monetary award for a compensable disease. This analysis assumed that all players who participate in the Settlement Agreement will also participate in the BAP and therefore no discounts were applied to future compensation awards. My work on this matter is ongoing. I reserve the right to update or expand upon the opinions expressed in this report on the basis of that work, and in response to any analysis put forth by other expertsThomas Vasquez, 1' February 9, 2014 38 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 40 of 71 Privileged and {jon?dential Appendix A: Determination of Incidence Rates Background Incidence This section describes methodology and reference sources used to determine background incidence rates of diseases that might be associated with concussions and other repetitive head injuries, and therefore, potentially considered as a compensable disease. When incidence rates were available by gender, we captured the rates for men only. For some diseases, rates were not available by gender; in these cases the reported statistics are for both genders. Exirapolating to younger ages For some diseases, incidence (or prevalence) rates were available only for the population above a certain age 65). In these cases, we assumed that the rate for a 20-year?old would be equal to one?hundredth of the rate for a 65?year-old. For ages between 20 and 65, we assumed that the rate increases exponentially. The literature indicates that diseases associated with advanced age Alzheimer?s and dementia), rarely occur in young age, and reliable statistics for young ages are not available. Exponential smoothing Diseases for which there were estimates of incidence available for various age ranges instead of a particular age, a midpoint in the age range was chosen (in the case of ages 85+, typically age 90 was used), and the estimated incidence rate for that age group was assigned to that midpoint. Between data points, an exponential curve was ?t based on the starting and ending rates, and the number of years in between them. Stroke-Related Alzheimer ?3 disease and Dementia Alzheimer?s disease and dementia can sometimes be attributed to prior history of stroke. According to epidemiological research, 8 to 10 percent of Alzheimer?s and dementia patients had a history of stroke prior to the onset of Alzheimer?s or dementia. Claimants who fall into this category will receive 25 percent of the compensation they would receive if they had not had a prior history of stroke. To re?ect the reduction in the total compensation amount, the overall incidence numbers for Alzheimer?s and dementia were reduced by a number equal to 75 percent of those who also had prior history of stroke only a quarter of those with a stroke history are included in the background incidence). 39 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 41 of 71 i?riviicged and. Coni?idmitiai References 0 Dodge, Chang, Kamboh, Ganguli (2011), ?Risk of Alzheimer?s Disease Incidence Attributable to Vascular Disease in the Population,? Alzheimers Dement. 201 1 May; 356?360 Approach and Reference Sources for Speci?c Conditions 1. Alzheimer?s Disease Table I of Hebert, et al. (2001) provides the estimated annual number of incidence cases from 1995 through 2050 by age group. Figures for 2010 were used in the life cycle model. Estimates were available for the following three age categories: 65-74, 75-84, and 85+. To calculate an estimate for age categories between 20 and 65, an exponential extrapolation method was used, by also assuming that the rate for a 20?year?old was one hundredth of the rate for a 65?year?old. No gender-speci?c rates were available therefore the statistics are for both genders. However, many studies of the age-specific incidence (development of new cases) of Alzheimer?s disease or any dementia have found no signi?cant difference by gender. As noted earlier, a ?nal modi?cation was made to the incidence rates based on the number of Alzheimer?s disease patients who have had a stroke history to account for joint causality. References 0 Alzheimer?s Association, ?2013 Alzheimer?s Disease Facts and Figures,? 2013 0 Hebert, Beckett, Scherr, and Evans, ?Annual Incidence of Alzheimer?s Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050,? Alzheimer ?3 Disease and Associated Disorders 2001; Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 169?173 2. ALS An overall incidence rate was reported from two sources, both citing the same ?gure: 2 per 100,000 persons per year. While ALS can be diagnosed at any age, typically it is diagnosed between age 40 and 70. Hence, it was assumed that the rate is constant 2/100,000 for ages between 40 and 70. For under age 40, the extrapolation to younger ages was performed, as 40 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 42 of 71 Privileged and {icir?ticntiai described above. For over age 70, the incidence rate was assumed to be 2/ 100,000. No gender? specific rates were available therefore the statistics are for both genders. References 0 ALS Association, ?Epidemiology of ALS and Suspected Clusters,? retrieved from on July 1, 2013. 0 The Robert Packard Center for ALS at Johns Hopkins, Facts and Statistics?, retrieved from with ails/facts on July 15, 2013. 0 Statistics Brain, ?Lou Gehrig?s Disease ALS Statistics? retrieved from on June 25, 2013. 0 Clark, Pritchard and Sunak, ?The Epidemiology and Etiology of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: An Integrated and Inter-Disciplinary Perspective?, A Working Report to the Department of Public Health, State of Massachusetts on behalf of the ALS Therapy Development Foundation, Massachusetts, page 2 of 106 retrieved from tiles/indph alsreport 21 on June 25, 2013. 3. Parkinson?s Disease The incidence rates for Parkinson?s disease were obtained from a study by Van Den Eeden et a1. (2003), which examined newly diagnosed Parkinson?s disease cases in 1994-1995 among members of the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program of Northern California. Table 2 of the study provides annual incidence rates by age and gender. The statistics we use are for men only. References 0 Van Den Eeden, Tanner, Bernstein, Fross, Leimpeter, Bloch, and Nelson, ?Incidence of Parkinson?s Disease: Variation by Age, Gender, and Race/Ethnicity,? Am. J. Epidemiol. 2003; 157(11): 1015?1022 4. Dementia Incidence rates were available from multiple sources for dementia. In particular, the following sources were used: 41 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 43 of 71 ?d firiviiegen and Corrada, et al. (2010); Table 2; Incidence rates for 4 speci?c age groups; US men only 0 Fitzpatrick, et a1. (2004); Table 1; Incidence rates for 4 speci?c age groups; US white men only 0 Ganguli, et al. (2000); Table 1; Incidence rates for 6 specific age groups; US men only; more severe dementia with CDRZI .0 - Hendrie, et al. (2001); Table 5; Incidence rates for 3 speci?c age groups; African Americans in US both sexes 0 Knopman, et al. (2006); Table 1; Incidence rates for 9 speci?c age groups; US men only 0 Jorm and Jolley (1998); Table 2; Incidence rates for 5 speci?c age groups; US both sexes; moderate+ dementia - Riedel?Heller, et al. (2001); Table 1 and 2; Incidence rates for 4 speci?c age groups; Germany men only After careful examination of these data sources, the rates reported by Corrada, et al. (2010) and Knopman, et al. (2006) appeared to be outliers relative to the other sources. Therefore, these two studies were excluded and average age-speci?c incidence rates were calculated on the basis of the other ?ve studies. As indicated above, all of these sources reported age-speci?c rates, but only for people older than 65. To estimate incidence rates for people younger than 65, Harvey et al. (2003) was used. This study reported age-speci?c prevalence rates for the population between 30 and 65. These prevalence rates were very small (each of them signi?cantly smaller than the incidence rates for each of the age categories above 65). Since for a terminal (17.6., incurable) disease such as dementia, prevalence is always an upper bound for incidence, we assumed that incidence rates for the population below 65 is equal to the prevalence rate. A modi?cation was made to these dementia incidence rates because of the relationship between Alzheimer?s disease and dementia. Alzheimer?s disease is the most common type of dementia, and eventually all Alzheimer?s patients will develop dementia. However, not all dementia is due to Alzheimer?s disease.? Thus, the calculated overall dementia incidence rates shown above in ?gure 2.1 include all cases of Alzheimer?s disease. To correct for this, the Alzheimer?s disease incidence rates were subtracted from the overall dementia incidence rates. Consistent with Friedenberg (2003), exclusion of Alzheimer?s disease incidence approximately halved the calculated incidence of dementia for example, at age 95, the 4.103% Alzheimer?s incidence rate was subtracted from the overall dementia incidence rate of 9.57%, resulting in a non- Alzheimer?s dementia incidence rate of 5.467%. As noted above in the general remarks, a ?nal modi?cation was made to the incidence rates based on the number of dementia patients who have had a stroke history. 20 One study, by Friedenberg (2003), found that patients with Alzheimer?s disease comprised approximately 50% of all dementia cases, with Lewy dementia and frontotemporal dementia each comprising approximately 15% of total dementia cases, and vascular dementia comprising a further 10% of all dementia cases. 42 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 44 of 71 Privileged and; Contidentiai References 0 Alzheimer?s Association, ?2013 Alzheimer?s Disease Facts and Figures,? 2013 Corrada, Brookmeyer, Paganini-Hill, Berlau, and Kawas, ?Dementia Incidence Continues to Increase with Age in the Oldest Old: The 90+ Study,? Ann Neurol. 2010 January; 67(1): 1 14?121 0 Fitzpatrick, Kuller, Ives, Lopez, Jagust, Breitner, Jones, Lyketsos, and Dulberg, ?Incidence and Prevalence of Dementia in the Cardiovascular Health Study,? Journal of American Geriatric Society 2004; 52: 195?204 0 Friedenberg, ?Dementia: One of the Greatest Fears of Aging,? Radiology 2003; 229: 632? 635 0 Ganguli, Dodge, and Chen, ?Ten-year Incidence of Dementia in a Rural Elderly US Community population: The MOVIES Project,? Neurology 2000; 54: 1109?1116 0 Harvey, Skelton?Robinson, and Rossor, ?Prevalence and Causes of Dementia in People Under the Age of 65 Years,? Neurol Neurosurg 2003; 74: 1206?1209 Hendrie, Ogunniyi, Hall, Baiyewu, Unverzagt, Gureje, Gao, Evans, Ogunseyinde, Adeyinka, Musick, and Hui, ?Incidence of Dementia and Alzheimer Disease in 2 Communities,? JAMA February 14, 2001; Vol. 285, No. 6 739?747 - Jorm and olley, ?The incidence of dementia: A meta-analysis,? Neurology 1998; 51: 728? 733 . Knopman, Petersen, Cha, Edland, and Rocca, ?Incidence and Causes of Nondegenerative Nonvascular Dementia,? Arch Neurol. 2006; 63: 218?221 0 Riedel~Heller, Busse, Aurich, Matschinger, and Angermeyer, ?Incidence of Dementia According to and British Journal of 2001; 179: 255?260 Induced Incidence/Risk Multiplier This section describes the methodology and sources used for estimating the increased risk to professional football players (or comparables) relative to the general population of developing certain compensable diseases. For Alzheimer?s disease, Parkinson?s, ALS and dementia, a risk multiple of 2.0 for ages 20 through 60 was used. After age 60, it was assumed that the relative risk is more additive in nature than multiplicative, and so the induced incidence is calculated as the background (general population) incidence at those ages, plus the induced incidence rates at age 60 for each of the diseases For each of the particular diseases discussed below, there were multiple sources reporting a risk to professional football players as a multiple of the risk experienced by the general population. Unless otherwise speci?ed, risk multiples are uniform across ages the relative risk is the 43 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 45 of 71 Privilegeri and Confidential same across ages for professional football players). For the majority of diseases, no peer? reviewed published research on the risk to professional football players relative to the general population was been identi?ed. It is clear that the literature and studies to date conclude a wide range of estimates of the relative risk associated with concussion or other forms of brain injury. The results vary from relative risk signi?cantly under 1.0 to risks in excess of 3.0. Many if not all of the studies have issues that question their accuracy. These issues include items such as small sample sizes, types of populations, types of injuries and characteristics of the studied population. Specific diseases, disorders, injuries, and 5. Alzheimer?s Disease There were two sources identi?ed that report the relative risk of Alzheimer?s for professional football players (Guskiewicz (2005) and Lehman (2012)) and three studies on the risk from mild traumatic brain injuries for developing Alzheimer?s disease. The induced incidence rates reported in these studies range from 0.76 to 4.1. Lehman (2012) reported that the risk of Alzheimer?s being a contributing factor to death, not necessarily the underlying cause, was 3.86 times greater for former NFL players who had played 5 years or more than for the general population. Guskiewicz (2005) noted a differential in the risk as a function of age, with the risk declining from 4 among younger players to 1 for players over the age of 75. Mortimer (1991), in a meta-analysis of 7 previous studies, found a relative risk of 2.67 for men. Nemetz (1999) found that the standardized incidence ratio was 1.4 for men who had experienced a traumatic brain injury, from a population cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Mehta (1999), using a population cohort from Rotterdam, The Netherlands, found a relative risk for men of 0.9. Plassman (2000), in a population?based cohort study of US. World War II veterans, found a hazard ratio for those who suffered a mild head injury (de?ned as a ?loss of consciousness or post-traumatic amnesia for less than 30 minutes, with no skull fracture?) of 0.76. Schofleld (1997), in a community longitudinal study in Manhattan, NY, found a relative risk of developing Alzheimer?s of 4.1 for those who had a history of head injury. References 0 Guskiewicz, Kevin M., et al., ?Association between Recurrent Concussion and Late-Life Cognitive Impairment in Retired Professional Football Players,? Neurosurgery, Vol. 57, No. 4 (Oct. 2005): 719?726 44 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 46 of 71 Frivileged and Confidential 0 Lehman, Everett 1., et al., ?Neurodegenerative causes of death among retired National Football League players,? Neurology Vol. 79 (Nov. 6, 2012): 1?5 0 Mehta, K.M., et al., ?Head trauma and risk of dementia and Alzheimer?s disease,? Neurology, Vol. 53 (1999): 1959-1962 0 Mortimer, 1A., et al., ?Head Trauma as a Risk Factor for Alzheimer?s Disease: A Collaborative Re?Analysis of Case?Control Studies,? International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 20, No. 2 (1991): 828-835 0 Nemetz, Peter N., et al., ?Traumatic Brain Injury and Time to Onset of Alzheimer?s Disease: A population-based study,? American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 149, No. 1 (1999): 32- 40 0 Plassrnan, B.L., et al., ?Documented head injury in early adulthood and risk of Alzheimer?s disease and other dementias,? Neurology, Vol. 55 (2000): 1158-1166 - Scho?eld, P.W. et al., ?Alzheimer?s disease after remote head injury: an incidence study,? Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Vol. 62 (1997): 119?124 6. ALS There was no study that directly isolated the induced risk of ALS among former NFL players. The ?ndings of three studies reported estimated induced incidence ranging from 1.13 to 4.31. These include the Lehman study (Lehman (2012)), which looked at ALS as a contributing factor not necessarily the speci?c cause of death) for a more exposed population of retired professional football players those who had played 5 years or more. From the Schmidt (2010) study of veterans, we calculated a risk multiple of 1.13 for veteran suffering head injuries developing ALS relative to those without head injuries.21 No age?breakdowns were available from Lehman (2012) or Schmidt (2010) (although Schmidt did provide a breakdown for the age at the time of the last injury, with those being injured after age 29 being at a 1.49 times risk). Chio (2005) looked at the effect of age on risk among a population of Italian soccer players, and found that for ages up to 49, the Standard Morbidity Ratio was 7.5, but then fell to 4.2 for those older than 50. References 0 Lehman, Everett 1., et al., ?Neurodegenerative causes of death among retired National Football League players,? Neurology Vol. 79 (Nov. 6, 2012): 1-5 0 Schmidt, Silke, et al., ?Association of ALS with Head Injury, Cigarette Smoking and APOE Genotypes,? Journal of Neurological Science Vol. 291 (April 2010): 22-29 21 Schmidt (2010) reported Odds Ratios in its text. We have calculated from the underlying data reported in Schmidt (2010) a risk multiple for ease of comparison to the other studies. 45 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 47 of 71 Privileged and {font?idential 0 Chio, Adriano, et al., ?Severely increased risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis among Italian professional football players,? Brain Vol. 128 (2005): 472-476 7. Dementia Five studies were considered with respect to the increased risk of dementia. These studies produced estimates of induced risk ranging from 0.7 to 3.86. Again, Lehman (2012) reported that the risk of Dementia as a contributing factor to a player?s death not necessarily the speci?c cause of death) was 3.86. Mehta (1999), in a population-based cohort from The Netherlands, found the risk multiple for men developing dementia was 0.7. Plassman (2000) found that hazard rate for a cohort of U.S. Navy and Marine veterans of World War II was 1.33. Finally, Lee (2013), in a population-based study from Taiwan, found a hazard ratio of 3.26. Another source, Amen (201 l) was excluded because of the small sample size (nil 00), and inconsistency between prevalence and incidence in its calculations. References 0 Amen, Daniel G. et a1., ?Impact of Playing American Professional Football on Long?Term Brain Function,? Journal of and Clinical Neuroscience, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2011): 98?106 0 Lee, Yi-Kung, et a1., ?Increased Risk of Dementia in Patients with Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A Nationwide Cohort Study,? PLOS ONE, Vol. 8, No. 5 (May 2013): 1?7, 0 Lehman, Everett J. et al., ?Neurodegenerative causes of death among retired National Football League players,? Neurology Vol. 79 (Nov. 6, 2012): 1?5 0 Mehta, K.M. et a1., ?Head trauma and risk of dementia and Alzheimer?s disease,? Neurology, Vol. 53 (1999): 1959-1962 0 Plassman, B.L. et a1., ?Documented head injury in early adulthood and risk of Alzheimer?s disease and other dementias,? Neurology, Vol. 55 (2000): 1158-1166 8. Parkinson?s Disease Four sources were identi?ed that calculated a risk multiple for Parkinson?s Disease, one based on a study of retired NFL players, and three more generalized to the risk of Parkinson?s after a traumatic brain/head injury. These studies reported risk multiples ranging from 1.44 to 1.69. The Lehman (2012) study found that the risk of a retired NFL player dying with Parkinson?s as a contributing factor was 1.69 times greater than that of the male general population. 46 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 48 of 71 Bt?ivileged and Confidential From the Bower (2003) study of US. males and females from Rochester, Minnesota we calculated a risk multiple of 1.76, while from Lee (2012), we calculated a 1.44 risk multiple for the central-California?based sample. From the Goldman (2006) study on male twin pairs, we calculated a risk multiple of 1.48.22 Both Goldman (2006) and Bower (2003) are for males only, while the only data available from Lee (2012) was for both genders. Multiple additional studies on the impact of brain trauma are available (summarized in Goldman (2006)), but all were conducted in the 19805 and 19903. No further breakdowns of the multiple by age were available in any of the studies. References 0 Bower, .H. et al, ?Head Trauma Preceding PD: A Case-Control Study,? Neurology Vol. 60 - Goldman, Samuel M. et a1., ?Head Injury and Parkinson?s Disease Risk in Twins,? Annals of Neurology, Vol. 60 (2006): 65?72 0 Lee, Pei-Chen et al., ?Traumatic Brain Injury, Paraquat Exposure, and Their Relationship to Parkinson Disease,? Neurology Vol. 79 (2012): 2061?2066. 0 Lehman, Everett . et a1., ?Neurodegenerative causes of death among retired National Football League players,? Neurology Vol. 79 (Nov. 6, 2012): 1-5 22 Bower (2003), Lee (2012) and Goldman (2006) all reported only the Odds Ratios in their texts, so for comparison purposes, we have calculated the corresponding Risk Ratio for use in the average. 47 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 49 of 71 anti ?Confidentiai Appendix B: Annual Cash Flow Model and Assumptions Cash Flow Modeling Assumptions Item Category Assumed Value Notes Funding and Investment 2.0% In?ation on Monetary Award Amounts 2.5% Real rate of return on invested funds 4.5% Nominal rate of return on invested funds Claim Review and Processing Facility start up costs $2,000,000 Expected cost for claim review and processing is $750/claim. There is an additional $100 fee per claim for processing medicare liens. Both fees are applied to ciaims that are ?led, inlcuding those that are valid for payment and claims that will not be paid. The model counts the number of valid claims. It is assumed that there will be an equal number of payable and non-payable claims so a total cost of $1,700 per valid claim is used in the model (2 $750) (2 $100) Cost per claim $1,700 Inflation on processing costs 2.0% 48 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 50 of 71 Priviiegeai 3m} {70011610113131 Dollars by Year Paid - Accounting for Payment Lag and Participation Rate millions) Fiiers Futures Deceased >2005 Death 177/ CT Deceased<=2005 Processing Cost Total Year Nom. NPV Nom. NPV Nam. NPV Nom. NPV Nam. NPV Nom. NPV Nom. NPV Total $426.9 $251.2 $415.7 $179.1 $19.3 $17.3 $65.7 $60.7 $5.7 $5.3 $10.1 $3.2 $945.5 $519.4 2013 2014 $2.0 $2.0 2015 $93.0 $91.3 $12.5 $11.7 $13.5 $12.6 $46.0 $43.1 $4.0 $3.3 $0.2 $0.2 $174.2 $163 .0 2016 $46.3 $41.9 $10.3 $9.3 $5.3 $5.2 $19.7 $17.7 $1.7 $1.5 $0.2 $0.2 $34.5 $75.7 2017 $8.0 $6.9 $7.9 $6.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $16.0 513.7 2013 $6.3 $5.5 $3.6 $7.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.2 $15.5 $12.7 2019 $6.4 $5.0 $9.1 $7.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $15.7 $12.3 2020 $6.2 $4.7 $9.2 $6.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $15.5 $11.6 2021 $5.6 $4.0 $3.5 $6.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $14.1 510.2 2022 $5.3 $4.0 $9.7 $6.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $15.6 $10.7 2023 $7.1 $4.7 $10.1 $6.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $17.3 $11.4 2024 $3.2 $5.2 $10.2 $6.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $13.6 $11.7 2025 $3.3 $5.0 $11.5 $6.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $19.9 $120 2026 $7.3 $4.2 $12.4 $7.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $19.3 $11.4 2027 $7.4 $4.1 $11.3 $6.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $19.3 $10.7 2023 $6.5 $3.6 $10.3 $5.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $17.3 $94 2029 $7.5 $3.3 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $17.6 53.9 2030 $9.1 $4.4 $3.5 $4.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $17.7 $3.6 2031 $3.3 $4.1 $3.1 $3.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $17.0 $7.9 2032 $7.4 $3.3 $9.1 $4.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $16.7 $7.4 2033 $6.6 $2.3 $9.7 $4.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $16.4 $7.0 2034 $7.4 $3.0 $9.3 $3.8 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $16.3 55.8 2035 $3.0 $3.1 $9.6 $3.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $17.3 $6.9 2036 $9.0 $3.3 $10.3 $3.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $19.5 $7.2 2037 $9.2 $3.3 $10.4 $3.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $01 $193 $7.0 2033 $3.3 $3.0 $10.3 $3.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $19.3 $6.6 2039 $7.6 $2.5 $10.0 $3.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $17.3 $5.3 2040 $6.9 $2.2 $11.5 $3.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 513.7 55.3 2041 $6.3 $2.0 $11.5 $3.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $13.6 $5.5 2042 $6.7 $1.9 $10.6 $3.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $17.6 $5.0 2043 $7.3 $2.1 $3.2 $2.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $16.1 54.4 2044 $3.1 $2.1 $7.7 $2.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $16.0 $4.2 2045 $3.3 $2.2 $6.5 $1.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $15.5 $3.9 2046 $7.9 $1.9 $3.4 $2.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.1 $16.5 $4.0 2047 $6.4 $1.5 $9.5 $2.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $16.1 $3.7 2043 $4.5 $1.0 $10.2 $2.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 $14.9 $3.3 2049 $3.9 $0.3 $3.2 $1.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $12.3 $2.6 2050 $3.3 $0.3 $7.9 $1.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $11.3 $2.4 2051 $4.2 $0.3 $6.6 $1.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $11.0 $2.1 2052 $4.6 $0.3 $5.7 $1.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 $10.6 $1.9 2053 $4.6 $0.3 $5.5 $1.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 $10.3 $1.3 2054 $3.7 $0.6 $5.2 $0.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $9.2 $1.5 2055 $2.3 $0.5 $5.2 $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $3.2 51.3 2056 $2.5 $0.4 $4.5 $0.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $7.3 $1.1 2057 $2.2 $0.3 $4.2 $0.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $6.7 $1.0 2053 $1.9 $0.3 $4.1 $0.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $6.1 $0.9 2059 $1.6 $0.2 $3.9 $0.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $5.6 $0.3 2060 $1.3 $0.2 $3.3 $0.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $4.3 $0.6 2061 $1.4 $0.2 $2.6 $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $4.2 $0.5 2062 $1.2 $0.1 $2.2 $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $3.6 $0.4 2063 $0.9 $0.1 $1.9 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $3.0 50.3 2064 $0.7 $0.1 $1.3 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $2.6 $0.3 2065 $0.6 $0.1 $1.7 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $2.4 $0.2 2066 $0.6 $0.1 $1.5 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $2.3 $0.2 2067 $0.6 $0.1 $1.3 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $1.9 $0.2 2063 $0.6 $0.1 $1.1 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $1.3 $0.2 2069 $0.4 $0.0 $0.9 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $1.3 $0.1 2070 $0.2 $0.0 $0.3 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $1.1 $0.1 2071 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $1.0 $0.1 2072 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.9 $0.1 2073 $0.1 $0.0 $0.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0.1 2074 $0.1 $0.0 $0.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.6 $0.0 2075 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.4 $0.0 2076 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 2077 $0.1 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 2073 $0.1 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0 2079 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.0 2030 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 2031 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.0 2032 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 2033 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 2034 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 2035 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 49 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 51 of 71 Friyilegeti and {imit?itientiai Appendix C: Summary of Claims Filed by Former NFL Players Table C-l: Summary of Claims Filed by Former NFL Players1 Disease/Impairment Category Death Alzheimers ALS Parkinsons Dementia Total SelfuReported (SRDiagnosed (D) 11 35 10 . 4 101 161 None - - - - 4,025 Total 16 46 11 5 161 4264 1 Includes only those claims that were provided at the time of the analysis. Additional claims have been ?led subsequently. Notes: Self-Reported (SR) cases are those for which the ?ler identified diseases or impairments in their claim but did not have a medical diagnosis. Diagnosed (D) cases are those files that had a medical diagnosis for the diseases or impairments claimed. Some player's claims have more than one disease/impairment, and therefore could be counted in more than one disease category and therefore the totai counts are greater than the number of claimants. Cases listed as Death with represents those cases that were included on the list of CTE cases provided by Plaintiff representatives and were also included in the claims filed. in the model, only the cases of Alzheimer's, ALS, Parkinson?s, and Dementia that had a medical diagnosis were used. 50 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 52 of 71 Privileged and {Teri?tiential Appendix 1): Examples of Life Cycle Modeling of Former NFL Players The following pages present 14 different hypothetical cases to demonstrate how the life cycle model is applied. These hypothetical cases are: 9999959.? Player diagnosed with Alzheimer?s at age 52 who played 3 years. Player diagnosed with Alzheimer?s at age 63 who played 5 years. Player who died of natural causes at the age of 77 who played 5 years. Player diagnosed with ALS at age 44 who played 12 years. Player diagnosed with Level 1.5 at 49 and Level 2 at 52 who played 4 years. Player diagnosed with Level 1.5 at 55, progressing to Level 2 at 58, and progressing to Alzheimer?s at 71 who played 9 years. Player diagnosed with ALS at age 76 who played 6 years. Player diagnosed with Alzheimer?s at age 59 who played 2 years. Player diagnosed with Level 1.5 at age 62, progressing to Level 2 at age 65 who played 5+ years. . Player diagnosed with Level 1.5 at age 72, progressing to Level 2 at 75 who played 6 years. . Player diagnosed with ALS at age 65 who played 3 years. . Player diagnosed with Alzheimer?s at age 55 who played 2 years. . Player diagnosed with Parkinson?s at age 50 who played 5+ years. . Player diagnosed with Parkinson?s at age 68 who played 4 years. 51 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #1 Disease Diagnosed Alzheimer's Age at Diagnosis 52 Years played 3 Year of Compensation 2022 Total Nominal Compensation $1,147,289 Life Cycle Modeling For Individual Former NFL Player Incidence Outcome Adverse Natural Natural Level 2/ Diagnosis Nominal Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson?s Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Death AIS Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 (YIN) Compensation Comments 201.4 44 0.3350% 001.15% 0.0433% 0.0028% 0.0057% 0.0003% 2015 45 0.3630% 0.0118% 0.0475% 0.002896 0.0057% 0.0003% 2016 46 039.20% 0.0129% 0.0521% 0.0028% 0.0051% 0.0004% 2017 47 041.80% 0.0120% 0.0571?o 0.0028% 0.0058% 0.0004% 2018 48 0.4380% 0.0129% 0.0626% 0.002896 0.008796 0.0005% 2019 49 0.4570% 001.30% 0.0687% 0.0028% 0.0125% 0.0005% 2020 50 0.4780% 0.0122% 0.0753% 0.0028?a 0.0181% 0.0006% 2021 51 0.5040% 0.0132% 0.0825% 0.0028% 0.0258% 0.0007% 2022 52 0.5380% 001.27% 0.0905% 0.0028% 0.0362% 0.0008% 5 1,147,289 PlayerdiagnosedwithAlzheimer's 2023 53 0.5800% 0.0133% 0.0992% 0.0028% 0.0500% 0.0009% 2024 54 0.6320% 0.0125% 0.1088% 0.0028% 0.0680% 0.0010% 2025 55 0.6910% 0.0122% 0.119396 0.0028% 0.084070 0.0011% 2026 56 0.7570% 0.0133% 0.1308% 0.0028?o 0.0978% 0.0013% 2027 57 0.8280% 0.0123% 0.1435% 0.0028% 0.1079% 0.0015% 2028 58 0,9060% 0.0123% 0.1573% 0.0028% 0.1137% 0.0017% 2029 59 0.9910?o 0.0122% 0.1725% 0.0028?o 0.1143% 0.0020% 2030 60 1.0860% 0.0113% 0.1891% 0.0028% 0.123370 0.0023% 2031 61. 1.1920% 0.0104% 0.198296 0.0028% 0.1341% 0.0025% Deceased Player Deceased Case 2 12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 53 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #2 Disease Diagnosed Alzheimer?s Age at Diagnosis 63 Years played 5 Year of Compensation 2033 Total Nominal Compensation $1,313,577 Incidence Natural Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer?s Level 1.5 201$ 44 0.335096 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 45 0.363096 0.011896 0.0475% 0.002896 0.005796 0.000356 2016 46 0.392096 0.012996 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.012096 0.057126 0.002396 0.005896 0.000456 2018 48 0.438036 0.012996 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013056 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.0181% 0.000556 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.002896 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.0023% 0.036296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580096 0.013396 0.0992% 0.002896 0.050096 0.000956 2024 54 0.6320% 0.012596 0.108896 0.002896 0.068096 0.001056 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119336 0.002896 0.084096 0.0011% 2026 55 0.757096 0.013396 0.130856 0.002896 0.097896 0.001356 2027 57 0.8280% 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.102996 0.001556 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113795 0.001796 2029 59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172596 0.002896 0.114396 0.002036 2030 60 1.085096 0.011396 0.189196 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.132096 0.198296 0.002896 0.134196 0.002596 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0.208236 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444096 0.01.0296 0.219296 0.002836 0.193936 0.003096 2034 64 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.0028% 0.264396 0.003356 2035 65 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002896 0.332096 0.003636 Life Cycle Modeling or Individual Former NFL Player Outcome Adverse Natural LevelZ/ Diagnosis Death ALS Suidice Parkinson's Aizheimer's Level 1.5 (YIN) Nominal Compensation Comments 22>- $1,313,577 Alzheimer's Diagnosed Deceasec? Player Deceased 53 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 54 of 71 *zmiequ?i 12:20. frzsimsmza Hypothetical Player Case Profile #3 Disease Diagnosed Natural Death Age at Diagnosis 77 Years played 5 Year of Compensation 2053 Total Nominal Compensation $0 Life Cycle Modeling For Individual Former NFL Mayer Incidence Outcome Adverse Natural Natural Levelzl Diagnosis Nominal Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer?s Leve11.5 Death ALS Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Lave! 1.5 (YIN) Compensation Comments 2014 44 0.335096 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000356 2015 45 0.363090 0.011896 0.047516 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0.392096 0.012996 0.052126 0.002836 0.005213% 0.000496 2017 47 0.418056 0.012056 0.057156 0.002896 0.005826 0.000496 2018 48 0.438096 0.012996 0.062636 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013056 0.058796 0.002856 0.015% 0.000536 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002396 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013256 0.082596 0.002896 0.025826 0.000796 2022 52 0.538056 0.012796 0.0905% 0.002826 0.036296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580056: 0.013356 0.099226 0.002896 0.050096 0.000996 2024 54 0.632096 0.012596 0.108396 0.002896 0.068096 0.001096 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2025 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001336 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.1435% 0.002826 0.107996 0.001596 2023 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113756 0.001796 2029 59 0.391096 0.012296 0.172554: 0.002896 0.114376 0.002016 2030 60 1.085096 0.011396 0.189196 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 51 1.192096 0.010496 0.1982% 0.002895 0.1341% 0.002536 2032 62 1.311026 0.009558 0.208296 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444055 0.010296 0.219236 0.002396 0.198990 0.003016 2034 1.590050 0.010296 0.231236 0.002896 0.264396 0.0033% 2035 1.530% 0.009536 0.244496 0.002816 0.332026 0.003656 2036 1.932096 0.009796 015.39% 0.002896 0.402296 0.003956 2037 57 2.122016 0.008736 0.274756 0.002896 0.467496 0.004236 2038 68 2.323096 0.010226 0.32196 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 2039 69 2.538026 0.009796 0.311296 0.002896 0.562996 0.004996 2040 2.735096 0.009596 0.332196 0.002896 0.503296 0.005396 2041 3.059036 0.010196 0.373956 0.002896 0.640956 0.005896 2042 3.343 0% 0.010576 0.423296 0.002896 0.702396 0. 006396 2043 3.633026 0.010736 0.481196 0.002896 0.793296 0.006996 2044 3.942036 0.011796 0.511913% 0.002396 0.320596 0.007596 2045 4. 299096 0.012396 0.629595 0.002896 1.06 3056 0.008296 2046 4. 715 0% 0.012696 0.723396 0.002896 1.221556 0.008496 2047 5.184026 0.013296 0.834776 0.002836 1.376596 0.008696 2048 5.711096 0.011070 0.965256 0.002896 1.533296 0.008396 2049 6.305096 0.013196 1.118796 0.002826 1.688996 0.009136 2050 80 5.978096 0.013356 1.299396 0.002896 1.856996 0.009496 20.51 81 7. 738056 0.015596 1.446794: 0.002% 2.03 6996 0.009656 2052 82 8.596096 0.015296 1.6123% 0.012128% 2.260236 0.009996 2053 83 9.557096 0.013796 1.798096 0.002896 2.535136 0.010196 Deteased Piaver Deceased - Natural Causes {3:88 2222222222222323222 222222222222222222 54 Case 2 12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 55 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #4 Disease Diagnosed ALS Age at Diagnosis 44 Years played 12 Year of Compensation 2014 Total Nominal Compensation $5,100,000 Incidence Natural Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 44 0.335036 0.011596 0.0433% 0.002896 0.005296 0.000396 2015 45 0.363096 0.011836 0.047596 0.002396 0.005296 0.0003% 2015 46 0.392096 001.29% 0.052136 0.002870 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.0004% 2018 43 0.438096 0.012356 0.052596 0.0028% 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.0130% 0.068796 0.002836 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.022% 0.075396 0.002896 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.002836 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538056 0.012796 0.090596 0.002836 0.035296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580056 0.033% 0.09936 0.002896 0.050096 0.000956 2024 54 0.532096 0.012596 0.108396 0.002896 0.068096 0.001036 2025 55 0.6510% 0.012296 0.119396 0.00296 0.084096 0.001136 2026 55 0.75?096 0.013396 0.130396 0.002896 0.097896 0.001356 2027 57 0.828036 0.012396 0.1435% 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 Life Cycle ?lode?ng For Individual Former NFL Player Outcome Adverse Natural Levelzl Diagnosis Nominal Death ALS Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 (YIN) Compensation Comments 5.100.000 {slayer diagnosed with ALS 22222222 Deceased 9iayer Deceased Eee??ee?ei 55 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 56 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #5 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation Year Age Natural Death AIS Incidence Level 1.5 2 49, 52 Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's 4 2019,2022 $1,147,289 Level 1.5 2014 0.335036 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 0.363096 0.011896 0.047596 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0. 392096 0.025% 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.413096 0.020% 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 0.438096 0.012396 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 45 0.457096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.0122% 0.075396 0.002396 0.018126 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.002896 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538036 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0.0008% 2023 53 0.580096 0.0133% 0.093296 0.002396 0.050006 0.000996 2024 54 0.632096 001.25% 0.108896 0.002896 0.063096 0.001096 202.5 55 0.631096 0.012296 0.113396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002376 0.097896 0.0013% 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001556 2028 58 0.906096 001.23% 0.157376 0.002826 0.113796 0.001796 2029 59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172536 0.002836 0.114336 0.002096 2030 60 1.086096 001.13% 0.185321% 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0.134136 0.002596 2032 62 1.311096 0.009556 0.208236 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 0.002896 0. 198996 0.0030% 2034 1.590096 001.02% 0. 231296 0.002896 0.264396 0.003396 20 35 65 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002836 0.332026 0.003696 2035 66 1.932076 0.009736 0.583% 0.002896 0.402276 0.003556 .2037 67 2.122056 0.008770 0.274796 0.002896 0.467456 0.0042% 2038 68 2.323096 0.010296 0.292196 0.002896 0.522426 0.004696 .2039 69 2.538096 0.009796 0.311296 0.002896 0.552996 0.004956 2040 70 2. 785036 0.009856 0.332196 0.002836 0.603296 0.005336 2041 71 3.059096 0.010196 0.373996 0. 002836 0.640996 0.005896 2042 72 3.343096 0.010596 0.4232% 0.002836 0.702396 0.006336 2043 73 3.633096 0.010770 048.11% 0.0028% 0.793296 0.006956 2044 74 3.942096 0.011796 0.549396 0.002826 0.920596 0.007526 2045 75 4. 299036 0.012396 0.629596 0002316 1.063036 0.008296 Life Cycle ?Modeling For Individual Former NFL Player Natural Death ALS Outcome Level 2! Diagnosis Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Adverse (YIN) .4 3.5.3230 221111 60210111312112 - :1 MM Nominal Compensation Comments 729,753 Player Diagnosed with Leve! 1.5 417,536 Player Diagnosed with Level 2 Deceased Player Deceased 56 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 57 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #6 Level 2 8: Alzheimer's Age at Diagnosis 55, 58, 71 Years played 9 Year of Compensation 2025, 2028, 2041 Total Nominal Compensation $1,178,981 Disease Diagnosed Incidence Natural Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level L5 0.335096 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 0.363096 001.18% 0.047596 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 Year Age 2014 44 2015 45 2016 46 2017 47 2018 4-8 2019 49 2020 50 2021 51 2022 52 2023 53 2024 54 2025 55 2026 56 2027 57 2028 58 2029 59 2030 60 2031 61 203.2 62 2033 63 2034 64 2035 65 2036 66 2037 67 2038 68 2039 69 2040 70 2041 71 2042 72 2043 73 2044 74 2045 75 2046 76 0.392096 0.012996 0.05 2196 0.4180% 0.012096 0.057196 0.438096 0.012996 0.062696 0.457096 0.013096 0.053796 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.504096 0.013296 0.08596 0.5 38096 0.012796 0.090596 0.580096 0.013 396 0.099296 0.632096 0.012596 0.108896 0.691096 0.012296 0.119396 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.9910% 0.012296 0.172596 1.036096 0.011396 0.189196 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 1.311096 0.009596 0.208296 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 1.932096 0.009796 0.258996 2.122096 0.008796 0.274796 2.323096 0.010296 0. 292196 2.538096 0.009796 0. 311296 2.735096 0.009896 0.332196 3.059096 0.010196 0.373996 3.343096 0.010596 0.423296 3.633096 0.010796 0.481196 3.942096 0.011796 0.549 396 4.299096 0.012396 0.629596 4.715096 0.012696 0.723596 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002396 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002596 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002396 0.002896 0.002096 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002096 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 0.005396 0.000496 0.003796 0.000596 0.012596 0.000596 0.0181% 0.000696 0.038% 0.000796 0.036296 0.000896 0.050096 0.000996 0.068096 0.001096 0.084096 0.001196 0.097896 0.001396 0.107996 0.001596 0.113796 0.001796 0.114396 0.002096 0.123396 0.002396 0.134196 0.002596 0.157796 0.002896 0.198996 0.003096 0.264396 0.003396 0.3320% 0.003696 0.402296 0.003996 0.467496 0.004296 0.522496 0.004696 0.562396 0.004996 0.603296 0.005396 0.640996 0.005896 0.702396 0.006396 0.793296 0.006996 0.920596 0.007596 1.063096 0.008296 1.221596 0.008496 Life Cycle Modeling For Individual Former NFL Player Outcome Natural Death ALS Levelzl Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer?s Level1.5 Adverse Diagnosis (YIN) Nominal Compensation Comments $565,827 Player diagnosed with Level 1.5 $513,154 Player diagnosed with Level 2.0 Player diagnosed with Alzheimer's 22 Deceased Piayer deceased 57 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 58 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #7 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation ALS 76 6 2046 $2,210,566 Year Age Natural Death ALS incidence Suicide Parkinson's Aizheimer's Level 1.5 2014 0.335096 0.011596 0.043 396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 0.363096 0.011896 0.017596 0.002396 0.005796 0.000396 2016 0.392096 0.012996 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 0.418096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 3030:? 0.438096 0.012996 0.052596 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 04157096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.043283% 0.018196 0.0006% 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.085% 0.002896 0.025896 0.000% 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.035296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580096 0.013396 0.099296 0.002896 0.050096 0.000996 2024 54 0.532096 0.012596 0.103896 0.002896 0.068096 0.001096 2025 55 0.591096 0.012296 0.119396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 55 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.037896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113796 0.001796 2029 59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172596 0.002896 0. 1143 96 0.002096 2030 1.086096 0.011396 0.189196 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0. 134196 0.0025% 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0.208296 0.002896 0.157796 0.003% 2033 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 0.002896 0.198996 0.003096 2034 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.002896 0. 264396 0.0033% 2035 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002896 0.332096 0.003696 20 36 0303 1.9320% 0.009796 0.258996 0.002896 0.402296 0.003996 2037 67 2.122056 0.008796 0.274796 0.002896 0.467496 0.004296 2038 2.323096 0.010296 0.292196 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 2039 69 2.5 38096 0.009796 0.311296 0.002896 0.562996 0.004996 2040 2.735096 0.009896 0.332196 0.002896 0.503296 0.005396 2041 71 3.059096 0.010196 0.373996 0.002896 0.540996 0.005896 2042 3.343096 0.010596 0.423296 0.002896 0.702396 0.006396 2043 73 3.633096 0.010796 0.481196 0.002896 0.753296 0.006996 2044 74 3.942096 0.011796 0.569396 0.002896 0.920596 0.007596 2045 75 4.299096 0.012396 0.629596 0.002896 1.063096 0.008296 2046 76 4.715096 0.012596 0.723896 0.002896 1.221596 0.008496 2047 5.184096 0.013296 0.834796 0.002896 1.376596 0.008696 2048 5.711096 0.011096 0.965296 0.002896 1.533296 0.008996 2049 6.305096 0.013196 1.118796 0.002896 1.538996 0.009196 2050 R083 6.978096 0.013996 1.299396 0.002896 1.855996 0.009496 2051 81 7.738096 0.015596 1.446796 0.0028% 2.035996 0.009596 2052 82 8.596096 0.015296 1.612396 0.002896 2.250296 0.0099% Life Cycle Biodeling For Individual Former NFL Player Nature! Death A15 Outcom Levelzl Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer?s Level 1.5 Adverse Diagnosis (YIN) pg??g?acg Nominal Compensation Comments $2,210,566 Player diagnosed with ALS Deceased Player deceased am? {1mg 58 Case 2 12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 59 of 71 ?30338579- Hypothetical Player Case Profile #8 Disease Diagnosed Alzheimer's Age at Diagnosis 59 Years piayed 2 Year of Compensation 2029 Total Nominal Compensation $587,552 Life Cycle Niodeling For Individual Former NFL Piazrer Incidence Outcome Adverse Natural Natural Levelzl Diagnosis Nominal Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Levei 1.5 Death ALS Suidice S?arkinson's Aizheimer's Levei 1.5 (YIN) Compensation Comments 2010 44 0.335096 0.011596 0.043396 0.0028% 0.005796 0.000396 2015 45 0.363096 0.011896 0.047596 0.002896 0.005786 0.000396 2015 46 0.392096 0.012% 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.818096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 48 0.438096 0.012996 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2013 49 0.457096 0.0130% 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.0181% 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.0028% 0.05896 0.0007% 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0.0008% 2023 53 0.580096 0.013396 0.099296 0.002896 0.050096 0.000996 2024 54 0.632096 0.012596 0.108896 0.002896 0.068096 0.001096 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119396 0.0028% 0.0840% 0.001196 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0. 143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113796 0.001796 2029 59 0.9910% 0.012296 0.172596 0.121028% 0.114396 0.0020% 2030 00 1.085096 0.011396 0.1831% 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.151211% 0.0104% 0.138296 0.002896 0.131511% 0.0025% 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0.208296 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 0.002896 0.198996 0.0030% 2034 64 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.002896 0.264396 0.003396 2035 55 1.753096 0.009596 0.34496 0.002896 0.332096 0.0036% Deceased Player deceased $587,552 Player diagnosed with Aizheimer's 22222222222223>2222 59 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 60 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #9 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation Level 1.5 2 62, 65 5+ 2032, 2035 $710,996 Year Age Natural Death ALS Incidence Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 0. 3 350% 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.0057% 0.000396 2015 0.363096 0.011896 0.047596 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0.392096 0.012996 0.052196 0.002896 0.0051% 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.0120% 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 0.438096 0.012996 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 {101.32% 0.082596 0.002896 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.0362% 0.0008% 2023 53 0.580096 0.013396 0.099296 0.002896 0.0500% 0.000996 2024 0.632096 0.012596 0.108896 0.002896 0.058096 0.001096 202.5 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097895 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113796 0.001796 2029 59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172596 0.002896 0.114396 0.002096 2030 60 1.0860% 0.011396 0.185121% 0.002896 0.1233% 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0.134196 0.002596 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0. 208296 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 0.0028% 0.198996 0.003096 2034 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.002896 0.264396 0.003396 20 35 65 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002896 0.332096 0.003696 2036 66 1.932096 0.009796 0.258996 0.002896 0.402296 0.003996 2037 67 2.12096 0.008796 0.274795 0.002896 0.467496 0.004296 2038 2.323096 0.010296 0.292196 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 2033 69 2.5 38096 0.009796 0.311296 0.0028% 0.562996 0.004996 2040 70 2.7850% 0.009896 0.332196 0.002896 0.642132% 0.005 396 71 3.059096 0.010196 0.373996 0.002896 0.640996 0.005896 2042 72 3.343096 0.010596 0.423296 0.002896 0.702396 0.005396 2043 73 3.633096 0.010796 0.4311% 0.002896 0.793296 0.006996 2044 74 3.942096 0.011796 0.549396 0.002896 0.920596 0.007596 2045 75 4.239096 0.012396 0.629596 0.002896 1.063096 0.008296 Life Cycle l?rIodeling For Individual Former NFL Player Natural Death ALS 8 Level 2] Diagnosis Suidice Parkinson's Aizheimer's Level 1.5 Adverse 07?) 61636:: ?8 233220 Page?? ?e Nominal Compensation Comments $422,475 Piayer diagnosed with Level 1.5 $288,521 Piayer diagnosed with Level 2 Deceased Player deceased from naturai cause 60 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 61 of 71 - . . a? 4 '1 39114113104300 am: 433224242033 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #10 Disease Diagnosed Level 1.5 2 Age at Diagnosis 72, 75 Years played 6 Year of Compensation 2042, 2045 Total Nominal Compensation $248,759 Life Cycle hlodeling For Imiividual Former NFL Player incidence Outcome Adverse Natural Natural Levelzl Diagnosis Nominal Year Age Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Aizheimer's Level 1.5 Death ALS Suidice Parkinson?s Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Compensation Comments 2014 44 0.335096 0.011596 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 45 0.363096 0.011896 0.047596 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0.392096 0.012396 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 48 0.433096 0.012996 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.015% 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.002896 0.02.5396 0.000796 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580036 0.013396 0.093296 0.002896 0.0500% 0.000396 2024 54 0.632096 0.012596 0.103396 0.002896 0.068096 0.001096 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002896 0.113796 0.001796 20.29 .59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172.596 0.002896 0.114396 0.002096 2030 50 1.086096 0.011396 0.189196 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0.134196 0.002.596 2032 62 1.311096 0.005596 0.208296 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 1.444096 0.010296 0.219296 0.002896 0.198996 0.003096 2034 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.002896 0.264396 0.003396 2035 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002396 0.332096 0.0036% 2036 1.932096 0.009796 0.253996 0.002896 0.402296 0.003996 2037 2.122096 0.008796 0.274796 0.002896 0.467496 0.004296 2038 2.323096 0.010295 0.292196 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 20.33 69 2.538096 0.009% 0.311296 0.002396 0.562996 0.004996 2040 70 2.785096 0.009896 0.332136 0.002396 0.603296 0.005396 2041 71 3.059096 0.010196 0.373996 0.002896 0.640996 0.005896 2042 72 3.343096 0.010596 0.423296 0.002896 0.702396 0.006396 2043 73 3.633096 0.010796 0.431196 0.002896 0.793296 0.006996 2044 74 3.942096 0.011796 0.549396 0.002896 0.9205% 0.007596 2045 75 4.239096 0.012396 0.629596 0.002896 1.063096 0.008296 2046 76 4.715096 0.012696 0.723896 0.002896 1.221596 0.008496 2047 77 5.134096 0.013296 0.834796 0.002896 1.376596 0.008696 2048 78 5.711096 0.011096 0.965296 0.002836 1.533296 {1.008996 Deceased Player deceased from natural cause 222222222 2 $083638 2! 22 $186,464 Piayer diagnosed with Levei 1.5 $62,296 Player diagnosed with Level 2 61 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 62 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #11 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation ALS 65 3 2035 $2,504,487 Year Age Incidence Natural Death ALS Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 44 0.335096 0.011556 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 45 0.353036 0.011856 0.047556 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0.3920% 0.012996 0.052196 0.002896 0.0051% 0.000496 201? 07 0.418036 0.012096 0.057196 0.002856 0.005896 0.000496 2018 48 0.438096 0.012996 0.062696 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013096 0.0681796 0.002896 0.012596 0.000596 20 20 50 0.478036 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.018196 0.000670 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082556 0.002896 0.025896 0.0007% 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090575 0.002896 0.036296 0.0008% 2023 53 0.580096 003.33% 0.099296 0.002896 0.050096 0.000996 20 24 54': 0.632096 0.012596 0.108896 0.002896 0.068056 0.001056 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.119336 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 56 0.757056 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828056 0.012336 0.143596 0.002896 0. 1.079% 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012336 0.157396 0.002856 0.113756 0.001796 2029 59 0.991096 0.012296 0.172596 0.002896 0.114356 0.002096 2030 60 1.086096 0.011396 0.189116 0.002896 0.123356 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002836 0.134196 0.002596 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0.2082% 0.002396 0.157796 0.002896 2033 1.443096 0.010296 0.219296 0.002856 0.198956 0.003096 2034 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.0028% 0.266396 0.003396 2035 1.753096 0.009596 0.244496 0.002896 0.332096 0.003696 2036 63 64 65 66 1.932096 0.009736 0.258996 0.002896 0.402296 0.003996 203? 67 2.122096 0.003796 0.274796 0.002896 0.462496 0.004296 2038 68 2.323096 0.010256 0.292196 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 2039 69 2.538096 0.009756 0.311296 0.002896 0.552596 0.004996 Life Cycle lio?eling For Individual Former NFL PIayer Natural Death ALS Outcome Leveizl Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Adverse Diagnosis @r?v??eged and Nominal Compensation Comments 22222222 $2,504,487 player diagnosed with ALS Deceased player deceased 62 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 63 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #12 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation Alzheimer's 55 2 2025 $674,705 Year Age Natural Death AIS incidence Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 033.50% 0.011596 0.003396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 0.363096 0.011836 0.0417596 0.002836 0.005756 0.000396 2016 46 0.392036 0.012996 0.052156 0.002896 0.0051% 0.000496 2017 5&7 0.418096 0.012096 0.0571% 0.002896 0.005896 0.000636 2018 0.438096 0.0129% 0.052616 0.002856 0.008796 0.0005% 2019 49 0.457096 0.013076 0.068796 0.002896 0.0125% 0.000596 2020 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075336 0.002896 0.018170 0.0006% 2021 51 0.504094: 0.121132% 0.085% 0.0028% 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 053.80% 0.012793 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0.000836 2023 53 0.580096 0.013395 0.099296 0.002896 0.050056 0.000996 2024 54 0.532096 0.0125% 0.108896 0.002856 0.068036 0.001056 2025 55 0.5910% 0.012296 0.118356 0.002816 0.084056 0.001150 2026 55 0.757096 0.013356 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.1113596 0.002895 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002890 0.211137% 0.001736 2023 59 0.9910916 0.0122?a 0.172596 0.111028% 0.114396 0.002096 Life Cycle .Modeling For Individual Former NFL Player Natural Death AIS Outcome Level 2] Diagnosis Suidice Parkinson?s Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Adverse lY/Nl Nominal Compensation Comments $574,705 Player diagnosed with Alzheimer's Deceased Player deceased from natural cause 63 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 64 of 71 Hypotheticai Player Case Profile #13 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation Year Age Natural Death ALS Incidence Parkinson's 50 5+ 2020 $2,444,288 Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 0.335096 0.011526 0.043396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 201.5 39 0.363076 0.011896 0.0475% 0.0028% 0.005796 0.000326 2016 45 0.392096 0.0129% 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0. 000496 2018 0.438096 0.012996 0.062696 0.111728% 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.012596 0. 000.5% 20 20 50 0.478096 0.0122% 0.075396 000.28% 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.5040% 0.013296 0.082596 0.002876 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0W0896 2023 53 0.580025 0.0133% 0.099296 0.002896 0.050076 0.000996 2024 54 0.532096 0.012596 0.108896 0.002896 0.063096 0.001096 2025 55 0.591096 003.22% 0.1193% 0.002896 0.084263% 0.001156 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130856 0.002896 0.097826 0.001396 2027 57 0.828095 0.012396 0.143596 0.002836 0.107996 0.001536 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.157396 0.002975 0.113796 0.001796 2029 59 0.9910% 0.012236 0.172596 0.002836 0.1143% 0.002026 2030 60 1.086096 031.13% 0.189126 0.002976 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.1920% 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0.134126 0.002596 2032 62 131.10% 0.009596 0. 208256 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 53 1.4440% 0.010296 0.211312% 0.002896 0.198996 0.003096 2034 1.590096 0.010296 0. 231296 0.002876 0.254396 0.003396 2035 65 1.753036 0.009596 0. 24-44% 0.0023% 0.332036 0.003536 2036 56 1.932096 0.009796 0.258996 0.002816 0.402296 0.003996 2037 67 2.122096 0.008796 0. 274756 0.002896 0.457496 0.004256: 2038 68 2.323096 0.010296 0. 292196 0.002396 0.522496 0.000696 Life Cycle .Modeling For individnai Former NFL Player Natural Death ALS Outcome Levelzl Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level1.5 Adverse Diagnosis 933203 ClNominal Compensation Comments $2,444,288 Mayer diagnosed with Parkinson's 22222222 Deceased Player deceased from nature: causes 64 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 65 of 71 Hypothetical Player Case Profile #14 Disease Diagnosed Age at Diagnosis Years played Year of Compensation Total Nominal Compensation Parkinson's 68 4 2038 $922,546 Year Age Natural Death ALS Incidence Suicide Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 2014 44 0.335096 0.011596 0.063396 0.002896 0.005796 0.000396 2015 45 0.3630% 0.011896 0.047596 0.0028% 0.005796 0.000396 2016 46 0. 392096 0.012996 0.052196 0.002896 0.005196 0.000496 2017 47 0.418096 0.012096 0.057196 0.002896 0.005896 0.000496 2018 43 0.438096 0.012996 0.062690 0.002896 0.008796 0.000596 2019 49 0.457096 0.013096 0.068796 0.002896 0.012590 0.000596 20 20 50 0.478096 0.012296 0.075396 0.002896 0.018196 0.000696 2021 51 0.504096 0.013296 0.082596 0.002896 0.025896 0.000796 2022 52 0.538096 0.012796 0.090596 0.002896 0.036296 0.000896 2023 53 0.580096 0.013396 0.099296 0.002896 0.050096 0.000996 20 24 54 0.532096 0.012596 0. 108896 0.002896 0.068096 0.001096 2025 55 0.691096 0.012296 0.113396 0.002896 0.084096 0.001196 2026 56 0.757096 0.013396 0.130896 0.002896 0.097896 0.001396 2027 57 0.828096 0.012396 0.143596 0.002896 0.107996 0.001596 2028 58 0.906096 0.012396 0.573% 0.002896 0.113296 0.001796 2029 59 0.391096 0.012296 0.172596 0.002896 0.114396 0.002096 2030 60 1.0860?o 0.011396 0.189196 0.002896 0.123396 0.002396 2031 61 1.192096 0.010496 0.198296 0.002896 0.134196 0.002596 2032 62 1.311096 0.009596 0..2082% 0.002896 0.157796 0.002896 2033 63 1.444096 0.03.0296 0.219296 0.002896 0.198996 0.003096 203d 64 1.590096 0.010296 0.231296 0.002896 0.264396 0.003396 2035 65 1.7530% 0.009596 0.244496 0.002896 0.332096 0.003696 2036 66 1.332096 0.009796 0.258996 0.002896 0.402296 0.003996 2037 67 212.20% 0.008796 0.274796 0.002896 0.467496 0.004296 2038 63 2.323096 0.010296 0.321% 0.002896 0.522496 0.004696 2039 69 2.538096 0.009796 0.311296 0.002896 0.562996 0.004996 2040 70 278.50% 0.009896 0.332196 0.002896 0.603296 0.005396 2041 71 3 . 059096 0.010196 0.373996 0.002896 0.650996 0.0058% 2042 72 3.343099 0.010596 0.423296 0.002896 0.702396 0.006396 2043 73 3.633096 0.010796 0.481196 0.002896 0.793296 0.005996 Life Cycle Erlodeling For Individual Former NFL Player Natural Death A15 Outcome LevelZ! Suidice Parkinson's Alzheimer's Level 1.5 Adverse Diagnosis 07") ?i ?555.535.2555 25555155550595.5060 Nominal Compensation Comments 39 22,545 Player diagnosed with Parkinson?s 22222222222222222222222>222 Deceased player deceased from natural causes 65 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 66 of 71 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 67 of 71 .Eririyileged and ?ont?idential Appendix E: List of Deceased Former NFL Players with CTE List of Deceased Former NFL Players, Death with CTE (2000 2013) Player Case No. Year of Death Seasons Age at Death Co-morbidity Filed Plaintiff 1 2002 17 50 . No 2 2004 9 36 No 3 2005 8 45 No 4 2006 12 44 Yes 5 2008 10 45 Yes 6 2008 16 66 ALS (cause of death) Yes 7 2008 9 45 Yes 8 2009 10 82 No 9 2009 11 38 Yes 10 2009 5 26 No 11 2009 2 64 Yes 12 2009 1 75 AD Yes 13 2009 1 49 ALS Yes 14 2010 86 No 15 2010 10 78 Yes 16* 2010 3 36 No 17 2010 15 71 No 18 2010 7 98 No 19 2010 7 56 Yes 20 2010 1 47 No 21 2010 1 23 No 22* 2010 1 87 No 23 2011 5 73 No 24 2011 11 65 Yes 25 2011 6 69 Yes 26 2011 11 50 Yes 27 2011 8 67 ALS (2000) Yes 28 2011 6 75 No 29 2011 2011 2011 10 69 Dementia Yes 34 201 I 1 5 80 Dementia Yes 35 2011 I6 84 Dementia No 36 2012 0.5 52 ALS (2002) No 37* 2012 No 38 2012 8 62 Yes 39 2012 8 52 No 40 2012 2 56 Yes 41 2012 1 25 No 42 2012 21 43 Yes 43 2012 8 69 Dementia Yes 44 2012 9 78 No 45 2012 8 61 Dementia Yes 46 2013 1 30 No 47 2013 6 70 No 48 2013 9 75 Yes 49 2012 10 68 Yes 50 2008 7 52 No *Player data could not be matched to player database and no secondary con?rmation of NFL af?iliation could be found and therefore was not included in the analysis. 66 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 68 of 71 Priviieged and Confidentiai Appendix F: CV of Thomas Vasquez Dr. Vasquez is a vice president at Analysis, Research, Planning Corporation (ARPC) in the New York of?ce. Dr. Vasquez has over 35 years of experience in management consulting for private sector clients, the development of economic models for US and foreign governments to analyze and develop tax, expenditure and regulatory policy and providing expert testimony over a wide range of issues. Dr. Vasquez has provided management consulting services for private sector companies in a wide array of industry sectors. The services include identifying methods to: (1) increase the stock price or value of the company; (2) leverage the ?rm?s brand asset; (3) assist underperforming companies and (4) provide general valuation services. Dr. Vasquez has assisted US and foreign governments in the development of tax, expenditure and regulatory policy. The services include the development of large scale micro-economic models to allow policymakers to determine individual and company behavioral reactions to tax and regulatory policy. Dr. Vasquez has provided expert testimony, depositions and analytical litigation support on a broad spectrum of issues involving statistical techniques, computer simulation, economic behavior and economic models, including, among others: 0 Using statistical models to forecast a company's future liability from lawsuits related to its former production of asbestos including the following representative assignments National Gypsum Corporation, the Fibreboard Corporation, Owens Corning, Congoleum, Western MacArthur, Burns and Roe, Inc. and Specialty Products Holding Corp, 0 Using statistical models to forecast a company?s future liability from lawsuits related to its former sales of insurance products. 0 The statistical analysis of the determinants of supply and demand in certain industry segments for use in business valuations before the Bankruptcy Court. 0 The impact of regulation and tax policy on prices, sales and production. 0 Analyzing the allocation of liability from a state?s superfund tax. 0 The statistical analysis of reasonable of?cer compensation levels in closely held companies. Prior to joining ARPC, Dr. Vasquez was president and CEO of Yankelovich Partners, Inc., a leading market research ?rm. While at Yankelovich Partners, Dr. Vasquez had responsibility for engagements designed to determine the best approach to maximize the value of the client?s ?rm. These engagements involved understanding the source of the value components of the ?rm value of the ?rm?s brand, product/service lines responsible for increasing (decreasing) stock price, the role of joint products and other key components of the ?rm?s value. From 1993 to 1997, Dr. Vasquez was the National Partner in Charge of Corporate Transactions Services for KPMG Peat Marwick. In this role he practiced in and led four of national practices. One practice area was in the area of litigation support. This area involved almost exclusively the use of highly trained professionals in providing expert testimony in a wide range 67 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 69 of 71 ?3 Privileged and Ceniidantiai of litigation issues. The second practice area involved providing consulting services in the bankruptcy and troubled company area. This area involved analyzing the condition and prospects of a company in ?nancial distress, generally involving recommendations for expense control, revenue growth, elimination/sale of product and distribution lines and the elimination/selling of production sites. The third area is investment banking. This area focused on three major components: (1) buying and/or selling of companies for middle market clients; (2) advise to non-public clients preparing an Initial Public Offering, and (3) advise to clients on methods to increase share price and/or cash ?ow in. anticipation of sale. The fourth area was business valuation. This area focused on the valuation of businesses in a wide range of settings including bankruptcy, fairness opinions, mergers and acquisitions, estate planning and other venues requiring valuation services. Dr. Vasquez served on the Firm?s Board of Directors from 1993 to 1997 and served as the Chairman of the Board?s Strategic Planning Committee. Prior to selling his ?rm to KPMG, Dr. Vasquez was the founder and President of the Policy Economics Group. Dr. Vasquez was responsible for all data base development and tax simulation modeling for federal and state government clients in the United States as well as foreign governments including among others Egypt, Pakistan, Hungary, the former Soviet Union, Trinidad-Tobago, Virgin Islands, Guam, El Salvador and Guatemala. Dr. Vasquez also developed similar models using specialized industry data bases to determine tax impacts and behavioral responses for commercial ?rms, industry associations and law ?rms. These models were also used to formulate the client?s strategic direction, market initiatives and value maximization strategies. Prior to establishing the Policy Economics Group, Dr. Vasquez was the Deputy Director for the US. Department of the Treasury Of?ce of Tax Analysis. While there, he guided US. tax policy analysis and designed large micro-simulation models and data bases for the US. Treasury Department and the Joint Tax Committee of the US. Congress. He appeared before Congress to provide testimony on such issues as capital gains taxation. He also designed numerous specialized models and data bases for analyzing policy issues at the company, industry, and individual levels. Professional Experience: President and CEO, Yankelovich Partners Inc., 1997 to 1999 National Partner in Charge, Corporate Transactions Services, KPMG Peat Marwick, 1993 to 1997. Managing Partner, Policy Economics Group, KPMG Peat Marwick, 1987 to 1993. Founder and President, Policy Economics Group, 1983 to 1987. Deputy Director, Of?ce of Tax Analysis, US. Department of the Treasury, 1979 to 1983. Assistant Director, 1978 to 1979; Fiscal Economist, 1972 to 1976. Chief Economist, New York State Economic Development Board, 1977 to 1978. Staff Economist, Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, 1976. Staff Economist, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1972. 68 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 70 of 71 Priviiegeti and Confidential Education: Economics, Clark University, 1973. M.A., Economics, Clark University, 1972. B.S., Mathematics, State University of New York Potsdam, 1970. Legal Experience and Testimony: National Gypsum Company Bankruptcy Proceedings, 1991 Deposition Testimony Gerald Ahern, et. al. vs. iberboard Corporation, et. al., 1994 Deposition Testimony Ezell Thomas, et. al. vs. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company, et. al., 1999 Deposition Fiberboard Corporation and Owens Corning vs. R.J.Reynolds Tobacco Company, et. al., 1999 Deposition Western Mac Arthur Company and Mac Arthur Company vs. General Accident Insurance Co. of America; United States Fidelity Guaranty Co.; Argonaut Insurance Company, 1999 Af?davit CSX Transportation, Inc. and American Home Ins. Co., 2000 Deposition ADR Proceeding Celotex vs. Travelers Casualty and Surety Co. and London Market Insurers, 2000 Deposition, 2004 Testimony, 2004 Owens Corning Bankruptcy Proceedings, 2001 Deposition, 2004 Trial Testimony, 2005 Michael Albanese vs. Compaq Computer Corporation, 2002 Af?davit ADR Proceeding ACandS, Inc. vs. Travelers Casualty and Surety Co., 2003 ASARCO vs Deposition, 2003 Western Mac Arthur Company and Mac Arthur Company Bankruptcy Proceedings, 2003 Oglebay Norton Bankruptcy Proceedings, 2004 Deposition, 2004 Trial Testimony, 2004 Halliburton Bankruptcy Proceedings, 2004 Congoleum vs Ace Ins. Et al, 2005 Deposition, 2005 Trial Testimony, 2006 Gene B. Griego, et al., Plaintiffs, vs. Bechtel National, Inc. et al., Defendants Deposition, 2005 Sandra Sue Fullen, et al, Plaintiffs v. Philips Electronics North America Corporation, a Delaware corporation, et al., Defendants Deposition, 2005 69 Case 2:12-md-02323-AB Document 6167 Filed 09/12/14 Page 71 of 71 Priyiieged and Confidential. St. Paul Fire and Marine Insurance Company, Plaintiff, vs. A.P.1., Inc., Defendant and Counter- Claimant Deposition, 2005 Dana Corporation Bankruptcy Proceedings, Case No. 2007 Deposition, 2007 Trial Testimony, 2007 API, INC. Asbestos Settlement Trust V. Atlantic Mutual Insurance Company; Civil No. 090665 United States District Court, D. Minnesota; July 9, 2010. Deposition, 2010 Applebee?s International, Inc., DineEquity, Inc. and Weight Watchers International, Inc. Sheree Shepard and Anthony Watts, On Behalf of Themselves and All Others Similarly Situated vs. DineEquity, Inc. et al.; United States District Court; District of Kansas; No. 08-cv?2416. Deposition, 2010 API, Inc. Asbestos Settlement trust, et V. Zurich American Insurance Company, et a1. Court File No. 09-CV-975 G) Deposition, March 29, 2011 Tronox Incorporated, Tronox Worldwide, LLC f/k/a; Kerr-McGee Chemical Worldwide LLC, and Tronox, LLC, f/k/a Kerr-McGee Chemical LLC vs. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation and Kerr-McGee Corporation Deposition 2012 Specialty Products Holding Corp, et a1 Bankruptcy proceedings, Case No. 2012 Deposition, 2012 Trial Testimony, 2013 70