Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 1 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 440 respondents with a cell phone only and 11 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline. 122 additional interviews were completed with Democratic primary voters in order to achieve a total of N=400 interviews. Study #19253 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Date: July 7-9, 2019 RVs DPVs 48 40 52 60 Male Female Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 800 interviews among Registered Voters is ±3.46% The margin of error for 400 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90% Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, “++”,or “^^” all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) Registered Democratic Voters Primary Voters 18-24 .................................................................... 9 9 25-29 .................................................................... 8 8 30-34 .................................................................... 10 12 35-39 .................................................................... 5 6 40-44 .................................................................... 10 6 45-49 .................................................................... 8 4 50-54 .................................................................... 8 7 55-59 .................................................................... 12 11 60-64 .................................................................... 11 14 65-69 .................................................................... 7 8 70-74 .................................................................... 4 5 75 and over ........................................................... 8 10 Not sure/refused ................................................. - Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Registered Democratic Voters Primary Voters Yes, Hispanic ................................................... 10 10 No, not Hispanic............................................... 90 90 Not sure/refused ............................................ - Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? Registered Voters White .............................................................. 75 Black ............................................................... 12 Asian............................................................... 2 Other............................................................... 4 Hispanic (VOL) ............................................. 5 Not sure/refused ........................................... 2 Democratic Primary Voters 69 19 2 3 5 2 White, Non-Hispanic ....................................... 72 66 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Q3 Registered Voter. Registered Voters Yes ................................................... 100 No ..................................................... - Q4 Study #19253 -- page 2 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Democratic Primary Voters 100 - Held for later release. I’d like to ask you a few questions about next year’s presidential election… Q5 If there were a presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, would you vote in the Democratic primary or caucus, the Republican primary or caucus, or would you wait to vote in the general election in November 2020? AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS+ 7/19+ Vote in Democratic Primary or caucus .................... 35 Vote in Republican Primary or caucus ..................... 25 Wait until the general election.................................. 36 Do not plan to vote at all (VOL) ............................. 1 Not sure .................................................................. 3 6/19+ 38 28 30 2 2 4/285/1/19+ 35 29 31 1 4 3/19+ 35 29 32 1 3 2/19+ 34 29 31 6 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^ Vote in Democratic Primary or caucus ..................... 100 Vote in Republican Primary or caucus ..................... Wait until the general election .................................. Do not plan to vote at all (VOL) .............................. Not sure .................................................................. ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. (Q6-10a-b ASKED ONLY OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) Q6 How closely are you following the Democratic presidential primary race––very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^ 7/19 1/08 Very closely....................................... 39 55 Somewhat closely............................. 43 35 Not too closely................................... 12 7 Not closely at all................................ 6 3 Not sure........................................... ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Q7 Study #19253 -- page 3 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey In selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, which of the following is most important to you? (ROTATE) (IF BOTH, ASK) And, if you had to choose just one, which of the following is most important to you? (REPEAT CHOICES) AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^ A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ....................................... A candidate with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump .................................... Both (VOL) ........................................................................................................... None/other (VOL) ................................................................................................. Not sure................................................................................................................ 7/19 51 45 4 - 2/19 56 40 4 - ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Democratic Primary Voter Trend for Comparison A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ....................................... A candidate with the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate .................. None/other (VOL)................................................................................................. Not sure ............................................................................................................... 12/15^^ 72 26 1 1 7/15^^ 79 20 1 - ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary. Republican Primary Voter Trend for Comparison 1/12^ 54 43 1 2 A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues ....................................... A candidate with best chance to defeat Barack Obama ......................................... None/other (VOL) ................................................................................................. Not sure................................................................................................................ 10/11^ 67 31 1 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican primary. Q8 In thinking about how the eventual Democratic nominee for president in 2020 approaches issues like health care, climate change, college affordability, and economic opportunity, which of the following comes closer to describing the candidate you prefer? (ROTATE) AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^ Someone who proposes larger scale policies that cost more and might be harder to pass into law, but could bring major change on these issues ........ Someone who proposes smaller scale policies that cost less and might be easier to pass into law, but will bring less change on these issues ............... None/other (VOL) ................................................................................................ Not sure ............................................................................................................... 7/19 3/19 2/19 54 52 55 41 1 4 44 4 42 3 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 4 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Now, thinking specifically about the 2020 Democratic primary elections… Q9a I am going to read a list of twenty-one of the declared candidates running for the Democratic nomination for President. After I read the entire list, please tell me if a Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (RANDOMIZE) (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Joe Biden ................................ Elizabeth Warren .................... Kamala Harris ......................... Bernie Sanders ....................... Pete Buttigieg.......................... Andrew Yang .......................... Beto O’Rourke ........................ Amy Klobuchar........................ Julián Castro ........................... Cory Booker ............................ Jay Inslee ................................ Marianne Williamson............... John Delaney .......................... John Hickenlooper .................. Michael Bennet ....................... Steve Bullock .......................... Bill de Blasio ........................... Tulsi Gabbard ......................... Kirsten Gillibrand..................... Seth Moulton ........................... Tim Ryan ................................ Other (VOL) ......................... None (VOL) .......................... Not sure ............................... 26 19 13 13 7 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 8 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 5 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey (ASKED IF MADE CHOICE ON Q9a) Q9b And, which of the remaining candidates would be your second choice or is your mind definitely made up? (DO NOT READ LIST) (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Kamala Harris ......................... Elizabeth Warren .................... Bernie Sanders ....................... Joe Biden ................................ Pete Buttigieg.......................... Tulsi Gabbard ......................... Cory Booker ............................ Beto O’Rourke ........................ Julián Castro ........................... Andrew Yang .......................... Marianne Williamson............... Tim Ryan ................................ Jay Inslee ................................ Bill de Blasio ........................... Michael Bennet ....................... Steve Bullock .......................... John Delaney .......................... Kirsten Gillibrand..................... John Hickenlooper .................. Amy Klobuchar........................ Seth Moulton ........................... Mind is definitely made up ...... Other (VOL) ......................... None (VOL) .......................... Not sure ............................... 14 13 12 10 8 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 12 2 5 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Q9a-b Combined first/second choices ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Joe Biden ................................ Elizabeth Warren .................... Kamala Harris ......................... Bernie Sanders ....................... Pete Buttigieg.......................... Beto O’Rourke ........................ Andrew Yang .......................... Cory Booker ............................ Tulsi Gabbard ......................... Julián Castro ........................... Jay Inslee ................................ Marianne Williamson............... Amy Klobuchar........................ Tim Ryan ................................ John Delaney .......................... Bill de Blasio ........................... John Hickenlooper .................. Michael Bennet ....................... Steve Bullock .......................... Kirsten Gillibrand..................... Seth Moulton ........................... None (VOL) .......................... Not sure ............................... 36 32 28 25 15 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 6 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Q10a-b (Leaving aside the candidate you support or your second choice/Although you are currently undecided), are there any other Democratic candidates who you would consider supporting but want to learn more about? If yes, who would that be? (IF YES, PLEASE SPECIFY) (DO NOT READ LIST) (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES) ^^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Kamala Harris ......................... Pete Buttigieg.......................... Elizabeth Warren .................... Cory Booker ............................ Joe Biden ................................ Bernie Sanders ....................... Amy Klobuchar........................ Julián Castro ........................... Beto O’Rourke ........................ Kirsten Gillibrand..................... Michael Bennet ....................... Jay Inslee ................................ Andrew Yang .......................... Marianne Williamson............... Tim Ryan ................................ Tulsi Gabbard ......................... John Hickenlooper .................. Bill de Blasio ........................... Steve Bullock .......................... Seth Moulton ........................... John Delaney .......................... Eric Swalwell ........................... Other (VOL) ......................... None (VOL) .......................... Not sure ............................... 16 14 12 9 9 9 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 29 7 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. Q11-14 Held for later release. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 7 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey And, thinking about the two Democratic primary debates that were held at the end of June and aired on NBC, MSNBC, and Telemundo… Q15 Which of the following statements best describes you? Registered Voters You watched or listened to all or some of the two debates ................................................... 38 You did not watch or listen to the debates themselves, but you paid close attention to news stories about them ..................................................................................... 28 You did not watch or listen to the debates or pay much attention to news stories about them ............................................................................................................................ 33 Not sure............................................................................................................................... 1 CNN OCTOBER 2015 FIRST DEBATE TREND1 As you may know, CNN and Facebook held a debate among the Democratic presidential candidates on Tuesday (October 13, 2015)…. Which of the following statements best describes you? I watched or listened to all or most of the debate ................................................... I did not watch or listen to the debate, but I paid close attention to news stories about it ................................................................................................................... I did not watch or listen to the debate or pay attention to news stories about it ..... Not sure ............................................................................................................... 1 October 2015 trend asked among registered voter self-identified Democrats and lean Democrat Independents. (ASKED IF WATCHED DEBATES, Q15:1) Q15a And did you watch or listen to one of the debates or both of the debates? One debate ..................................... Both debates................................... Not sure ....................................... Registered Voters 23 76 1 Democratic Primary Voters 21 79 - Democratic Primary Voters 51 29 19 1 31 38 31 - Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 8 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey (ASKED IF WATCHED DEBATES OR NEWS COVERAGE, Q15:1-2) Q16 And which candidate or candidates in the debates most impressed you? (DO NOT READ LIST) (ACCEPT UP TO THREE RESPONSES) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Kamala Harris ......................... Elizabeth Warren .................... Pete Buttigieg ......................... Joe Biden ................................ Bernie Sanders ....................... Julián Castro ........................... Cory Booker ............................ Andrew Yang .......................... Amy Klobuchar ....................... Kirsten Gillibrand .................... Tulsi Gabbard ......................... Beto O’Rourke ........................ Michael Bennet ....................... Jay Inslee................................ John Hickenlooper .................. Marianne Williamson .............. Bill de Blasio ........................... John Delaney .......................... Seth Moulton........................... Tim Ryan ................................ Other (VOL) ......................... None (VOL) .......................... Not sure ............................... Registered Voters 29 16 10 13 7 5 4 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 31 10 Democratic Primary Voters 47 32 15 15 10 10 6 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 7 6 And, talking about an issue in the news… Q17 Would you favor or oppose a single payer health care system in which all Americans would get their health insurance from one government plan that is financed in part by taxes? Favor ................................................. Oppose.............................................. Not sure ........................................... 7/19+ 44 49 7 9/171 47 46 7 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 2017 language read: Would you favor or oppose a single payer health care system in which all Americans would get their health insurance from one government plan that is financed by taxes? 1 September Moving on… Q18 There has been some discussion about Congress holding hearings to consider impeaching and removing President Trump from office. Which of the following best describes what you think… (ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) There is enough evidence for Congress to begin impeachment hearings now ..................... Congress should continue investigating to see if there is enough evidence to hold impeachment hearings in the future ...................................................................................... Congress should not hold impeachment hearings and Donald Trump should finish his term as president........................................................................................................................... Not sure............................................................................................................................... + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 7/19+ 21 6/19 27 4/285/1/19 17 3/19 16 27 24 32 33 50 2 48 1 48 3 47 4 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 Study #19253 -- page 9 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1 A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2016 election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK:) Which of the following statements describes your vote? (ROTATE STATEMENTS :1-4 TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) (IF “SOMEONE ELSE,” ASK:) And, was your vote for Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or someone else? Registered Voters Voted for Trump because you liked him or his policies ................................ 25 Voted for Trump because you did not like Clinton or her policies ................. 14 Voted for Clinton because you did not like Trump or his policies ................. 19 Voted for Clinton because you liked her or her policies ................................ 23 Voted for Gary Johnson (VOL) ................................................................... 1 Voted for Jill Stein (VOL) ............................................................................ 1 Voted for someone else (VOL) .................................................................. 3 Voted, not sure ........................................................................................... 1 No, Did Not Vote .......................................................................................... 11 Not sure ...................................................................................................... 2 Democratic Primary Voters 3 2 35 46 1 4 6 3 (ASKED OF REPUBLICAN AND LEAN REPUBLICAN REGISTERED VOTERS) QF1a Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party? 4/287/19+ 6/19 5/1/19 3/19 Supporter of Donald Trump ......................................................................... 44 52 47 43 Supporter of the Republican Party ............................................................... 46 38 42 47 Both (VOL) ................................................................................................. 7 3 5 5 Neither (VOL)............................................................................................. 2 5 5 4 Not sure ..................................................................................................... 1 2 1 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 2/19 45 47 4 2 2 1/19 51 38 6 3 2 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? Currently Employed Professional, manager ................. White-collar worker ...................... Blue-collar worker ........................ Farmer, rancher ........................... Not Currently Employed Student ......................................... Stay at home mom/dad ................ Retired.......................................... Unemployed, looking for work ...... Other ............................................ Not sure...................................... QF3 Study #19253 -- page 10 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Registered Voters Democratic Primary Voters 27 22 18 - 27 21 13 - 2 4 23 3 1 3 3 29 3 1 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) Grade school ........................................................... Some high school .................................................... High school graduate ............................................... Some college, no degree ......................................... Vocational training/School ...................................... 2-year college degree .............................................. 4-year college/bachelor's degree ............................. Some postgraduate work, no degree ....................... 2-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree ......... Doctoral/law degree ................................................. Not sure/refused .................................................... QF4 Registered Voters 5 24 18 1 14 22 1 12 3 - Democratic Primary Voters 3 18 17 1 13 26 3 16 3 - Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") Strong Democrat .............................. Not very strong Democrat................. Independent/lean Democrat ............. Strictly Independent .......................... Independent/lean Republican ........... Not very strong Republican .............. Strong Republican ............................ Other (VOL) .................................... Not sure .......................................... Registered Voters 25 7 10 12 9 7 20 6 4 Democratic Primary Voters 61 12 16 5 2 2 2 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies July 2019 QF5 Study #19253 -- page 11 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? Registered Voters Very liberal .......................................................... 13 Somewhat liberal ................................................ 12 Moderate ............................................................ 35 Somewhat conservative ...................................... 18 Very conservative ............................................... 16 Not sure ............................................................ 6 Democratic Primary Voters 29 24 36 8 1 2 QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? Registered Voters Labor union member ......................................... 13 Union household ............................................... 9 Non-union household ........................................ 77 Not sure........................................................... 1 QF7 When it comes to staying up with the news, which of these news sources, if any, do you watch or consume regularly? (RANDOMIZE, ACCEPT MULTIPLE ANSWERS) Broadcast network news, such as NBC, ABC, or CBS ......................... The cable channel Fox News ............................................................... The cable channel CNN........................................................................ The cable channel MSNBC .................................................................. Progressive or liberal news outlets, blogs, or websites ........................ Conservative news outlets, blogs, or websites ..................................... Or, do you not watch or consume any of these to follow the news ...... Watch different TV news (VOL) ......................................................... Get news from some other source (VOL) .......................................... Not sure .............................................................................................. QF8 Democratic Primary Voters 17 8 74 1 Registered Voters 43 35 29 24 16 15 14 1 3 1 Democratic Primary Voters 52 18 47 41 28 10 9 1 3 - How would you describe your economic circumstances—(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) poor, working class, middle class, upper middle class, or well-to-do? Poor ................................................ Working class ................................. Middle class .................................... Upper middle class ......................... Well-to-do ....................................... Not sure/refused ........................... Registered Voters 7 24 48 17 3 1 Democratic Primary Voters 8 25 44 17 5 1