NBC News SurveyMonkey Alabama State Poll Results EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday, July 19, 2019 at 4:30AM ET The NBC News SurveyMonkey Alabama Poll was conducted online from Tuesday, July 2 until Tuesday, July 16, 2019. Results are among a sample of 1,005 adults aged 18 and over, including 872 registered voters, who live in Alabama. The error estimate for registered voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below. TOPLINE RESULTS Among registered voters Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Foreign policy 1 3 The environment 10 6 Terrorism 4 6 Immigration 25 15 Health care 18 22 Jobs and the economy 25 31 Education 10 8 Other 6 9 No answer 1 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 44 40 Somewhat approve 16 19 Somewhat disapprove 10 8 Strongly disapprove 29 33 If the Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today and the following candidates were running, who would you vote for? [AMONG DEM AND DEM-LEANERS; RANDOMIZED] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg Joe Sestak Cory Booker Michael Bennet Steve Bullock Andrew Yang Bill de Blasio Marianne Williamson Beto O’Rourke John Delaney Julian Castro Tim Ryan Tulsi Gabbard Amy Klobuchar Kirsten Gillibrand Mike Gravel John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee Wayne Messam Seth Moulton No answer 7/2-7/16/19 36 15 13 9 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 No answer 1 1 Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Alabama state government? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Education 25 25 Health care 17 20 Immigration 6 6 Jobs and the economy 30 34 Infrastructure 14 11 Other (please specify) 6 4 No answer 1 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kay Ivey is handling her job as governor of Alabama? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 22 26 Somewhat approve 41 49 Somewhat disapprove 19 15 No answer 2 2 Strongly disapprove 15 8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Alabama State Legislature is handling its job? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 8 7 Somewhat approve 44 46 Somewhat disapprove 28 29 No answer 3 3 Strongly disapprove 17 14 How would you rate the condition of the Alabama economy these days? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 17 14 Fairly good 54 57 Fairly bad 20 21 Very bad 8 7 No answer 1 1 How often do you trust the federal government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 5 3 Most of the time 10 14 About half of the time 31 28 Some of the time 28 31 Almost never 24 24 No answer 2 1 How often do you trust the state government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 5 3 Most of the time 17 20 About half of the time 27 32 Some of the time 26 26 Almost never 22 18 No answer 1 1 How good of a job is the Alabama state government doing at maintaining roads, bridges and other infrastructure? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 8 6 Somewhat good 36 47 Somewhat poor 36 32 Very poor 19 16 No answer 1 - How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to improve public schools in Alabama? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing 20 21 Somewhat willing 35 40 Not too willing 23 22 Not at all willing 21 15 Thinking about the elections next year, how important is state government spending on infrastructure to your vote? 7/2—7/16/2019 Very important Somewhat important Not very important 35 48 11 Not at all important 5 No answer 2 No answer 1 - Thinking about the elections next year, if a candidate wanted to expand Medicaid in your state, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote?? 7/2—7/16/19 More likely 37 Less likely 28 Wouldn’t make a difference 33 No answer 2 Do you think race relations in Alabama are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Getting better 27 21 Getting worse 27 29 Staying about the same 44 48 No answer 1 1 Do you support or oppose removing Confederate monuments and statues from public spaces around Alabama? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly support 19 18 Somewhat support 13 13 Somewhat oppose 16 17 Strongly oppose 49 51 In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 7/2—7/16/2019 Yes 46 No 51 No answer 3 No answer 2 2 METHODOLOGY The NBC News SurveyMonkey Alabama Poll was conducted online among a sample of 1,005 adults aged 18 and over who live in Alabama, including 872 who say they are registered to vote. The poll was conducted from July 2, 2019 until July 16, 2019. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than two million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. A multi-stage raking was employed to construct state-level registered voter weights. First, postal zip codes are classified into clusters according to their population size, population density, medium income and race compositions. Zip code-level characteristics are obtained from the American Community Survey and publicly available zip code databases. Initial weights are constructed by weighting the sample to zip code-level group targets. The initial weights are then raked by gender, age, race and education to match targets obtained from the American Community Survey. The third state of raking weights initial weights to gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters for non-voters of 2016 general election and gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters and presidential vote for voters of 2016 general election. A time-series based model was employed to forecast registered voter composition, given the Current Population November Supplement samples from 1994 through 2016. The state-level presidential vote targets are obtained from the Federal Election Commission. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey among registered voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval, we use the weighted data to generate 5,000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. Group Total RVs Unweighted N 872 Plus or minus 4.4 Republican RVs Democrat RVs 515 257 5.6 7.8 Male RVs Female RVs 370 502 6.5 5.6 White RVs Black RVs 641 164 5.0 9.2