NBC News SurveyMonkey Mississippi State Poll Results EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday, July 19, 2019 at 4:30AM ET The NBC News SurveyMonkey Mississippi Poll was conducted online from Tuesday, July 2 until Tuesday, July 16, 2019. Results are among a sample of 1,171 adults aged 18 and over, including 1,042 registered voters, who live in Mississippi. The error estimate for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below. TOPLINE RESULTS Among registered voters Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Foreign policy 3 2 The environment 5 4 Terrorism 4 5 Immigration 22 13 Health care 19 20 Jobs and the economy 27 32 Education 14 16 Other 5 6 No answer 1 2 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 41 35 Somewhat approve 15 17 Somewhat disapprove 12 9 Strongly disapprove 31 37 If the Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today and the following candidates were running, who would you vote for? [AMONG DEM AND DEM-LEANERS; RANDOMIZED] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Michael Bennet Cory Booker Pete Buttigieg Marianne Williamson Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Jay Inslee Andrew Yang Beto O’Rourke Tulsi Gabbard John Delaney Bill de Blasio Mike Gravel Steve Bullock Julian Castro John Hickenlooper Wayne Messam Seth Moulton Tim Ryan Joe Sestak No answer 7/2-7/16/19 47 21 8 7 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 No answer 1 2 Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Mississippi state government? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Jobs and the economy 36 37 Education 26 30 Infrastructure 14 13 Health care 16 15 Immigration 4 2 Other (please specify) 2 2 No answer 1 - Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Bryant is handling his job as governor of Mississippi? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 27 21 Somewhat approve 43 46 Somewhat disapprove 17 18 No answer 2 2 Strongly disapprove 12 14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Mississippi State Legislature is handling its job? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 10 5 Somewhat approve 48 50 Somewhat disapprove 26 29 No answer 2 3 Strongly disapprove 13 13 If the 2019 election for governor were being held today among the following candidates, who would you vote for? 7/2—7/16/19 Tate Reeves, the Republican 51 Jim Hood, the Democrat 42 No answer 6 If the 2019 election for governor were being held today among the following candidates, who would you vote for? 7/2—7/16/19 Bill Waller, the Republican 53 Jim Hood, the Democrat 41 No answer 6 How would you rate the condition of the Mississippi economy these days? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 8 4 Fairly good 53 46 Fairly bad 25 35 Very bad 13 14 No answer 1 1 How often do you trust the federal government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 4 2 Most of the time 16 12 About half of the time 29 32 Some of the time 25 28 Almost never 25 24 No answer 1 2 How often do you trust the state government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 5 2 Most of the time 23 18 About half of the time 31 31 Some of the time 24 30 Almost never 15 17 No answer 1 2 How good of a job is the Mississippi state government doing at maintaining roads, bridges and other infrastructure? 7/2—7/16/19 Very good 6 Somewhat good 34 Somewhat poor 32 Very poor 27 No answer 1 How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to improve public schools in Mississippi? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing 19 20 Somewhat willing 41 40 Not too willing 22 23 Not at all willing 17 16 No answer 1 - How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to fund improvements to infrastructure, like roads and bridges, in Mississippi? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing Somewhat willing Not too willing Not at all willing No answer 22 17 42 45 23 27 13 11 1 1 Thinking about the upcoming elections in November, if a candidate wanted to expand Medicaid in your state, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? More likely Less likely Wouldn’t make much difference No answer 7/2—7/16/2019 35 33 31 1 9/9—9/24/18 37 28 34 1 Do you think race relations in Mississippi are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Getting better 29 24 Getting worse 29 30 Staying about the same 41 45 No answer 1 Do you support or oppose removing Confederate monuments and statues from public spaces around Mississippi? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly support 19 19 Somewhat support 14 14 Somewhat oppose 15 15 Strongly oppose 51 50 In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 7/2—7/16/2019 Yes 51 No 46 No answer 3 No answer 1 1 METHODOLOGY The NBC News SurveyMonkey Mississippi Poll was conducted online among a sample of 1,171 adults aged 18 and over who live in Mississippi, including 1,042 who say they are registered to vote. The poll was conducted from July 2, 2019 until July 16, 2019. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than two million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. A multi-stage raking was employed to construct state-level registered voter weights. First, postal zip codes are classified into clusters according to their population size, population density, medium income and race compositions. Zip code-level characteristics are obtained from the American Community Survey and publicly available zip code databases. Initial weights are constructed by weighting the sample to zip code-level group targets. The initial weights are then raked by gender, age, race and education to match targets obtained from the American Community Survey. The third state of raking weights initial weights to gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters for non-voters of 2016 general election and gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters and presidential vote for voters of 2016 general election. A time-series based model was employed to forecast registered voter composition, given the Current Population November Supplement samples from 1994 through 2016. The state-level presidential vote targets are obtained from the Federal Election Commission. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey among registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval, we use the weighted data to generate 5,000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. Group Total RVs Unweighted N 1,042 Plus or minus 4.2 Republican RVs Democrat RVs Independent RVs 646 282 102 5.1 7.5 14.0 Male RVs Female RVs 459 583 6.5 5.1 White RVs Black RVs 720 242 4.8 7.7