NBC News SurveyMonkey Tennessee State Poll Results EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday, July 19, 2019 at 4:30AM ET The NBC News SurveyMonkey Tennessee Poll was conducted online from Tuesday, July 2 until Tuesday, July 16, 2019. Results are among a sample of 1,092 adults aged 18 and over, including 958 registered voters, who live in Tennessee. The error estimate for registered voters is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below. TOPLINE RESULTS Among registered voters Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Foreign policy 3 3 The environment 8 7 Terrorism 5 5 Immigration 26 15 Health care 22 25 Jobs and the economy 20 26 Education 9 8 Other 8 9 No answer 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 42 36 Somewhat approve 15 17 Somewhat disapprove 10 7 Strongly disapprove 33 39 If the Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today and the following candidates were running, who would you vote for? [AMONG DEM AND DEM-LEANERS; RANDOMIZED] Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Kamala Harris Pete Buttigieg Michael Bennet Tulsi Gabbard Kirsten Gillibrand Beto O’Rourke John Hickenlooper Cory Booker Amy Klobuchar Julian Castro Seth Moulton Wayne Messam Marianne Williamson Andrew Yang John Delaney Steve Bullock Jay Inslee Bill de Blasio Mike Gravel Tim Ryan Joe Sestak No answer 7/2-7/16/19 33 18 13 12 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 No answer 1 1 W0hich of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Tennessee state government? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Education 18 18 Health care 25 28 Immigration 9 8 Infrastructure 16 12 Other (please specify) 5 6 Jobs and the economy 26 28 No answer 1 - Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Lee is handling his job as governor of Tennessee? 7/2—7/16/19 Strongly approve 22 Somewhat approve 48 Somewhat disapprove 17 Strongly disapprove 9 No answer 3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Tennessee State Legislature is handling its job? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 7 7 Somewhat approve 53 50 Somewhat disapprove 25 27 Strongly disapprove 12 13 No answer 3 3 How would you rate the condition of the Tennessee economy these days? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 22 21 Fairly good 58 57 Fairly bad 16 17 Very bad 3 5 No answer 1 1 How often do you trust the federal government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 3 2 About half of the time 26 26 Most of the time 12 10 Some of the time 28 34 Almost never 30 27 No answer 1 1 How often do you trust the state government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 4 2 About half of the time 31 32 Most of the time 23 22 Some of the time 25 28 No answer 1 1 Almost never 16 15 How good of a job is the Tennessee state government doing at maintaining roads, bridges and other infrastructure? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 6 7 Somewhat good 47 49 Somewhat poor 32 31 Very poor 15 13 No answer 1 1 How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to improve public schools in Tennessee? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing 19 20 Somewhat willing 35 35 Not too willing 28 26 Not at all willing 17 18 No answer 1 1 How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to fund improvements to infrastructure, like roads and bridges, in Tennessee? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing Somewhat willing Not too willing Not at all willing No answer 15 16 47 40 26 30 12 14 1 1 Thinking about the elections next year, if a candidate wanted to expand Medicaid in your state, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 7/2—7/16/2019 More likely Less likely Wouldn’t make much difference No answer 34 26 38 1 Do you think race relations in Tennessee are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Getting better 22 16 Getting worse 29 33 Staying about the same 48 50 No answer 1 1 Do you support or oppose removing Confederate monuments and statues from public spaces around Tennessee? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly support 22 20 Somewhat support 11 11 Somewhat oppose 15 18 Strongly oppose 52 51 In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 7/2—7/16/2019 Yes 44 No 53 No answer 2 No answer 1 1 METHODOLOGY The NBC News SurveyMonkey Tennessee Poll was conducted online among a sample of 1,092 adults aged 18 and over who live in Mississippi, including 958 who say they are registered to vote. The poll was conducted from July 2, 2019 until July 16, 2019. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than two million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. A multi-stage raking was employed to construct state-level registered voter weights. First, postal zip codes are classified into clusters according to their population size, population density, medium income and race compositions. Zip code-level characteristics are obtained from the American Community Survey and publicly available zip code databases. Initial weights are constructed by weighting the sample to zip code-level group targets. The initial weights are then raked by gender, age, race and education to match targets obtained from the American Community Survey. The third state of raking weights initial weights to gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters for non-voters of 2016 general election and gender, age, race and education of forecasted registered voters and presidential vote for voters of 2016 general election. A time-series based model was employed to forecast registered voter composition, given the Current Population November Supplement samples from 1994 through 2016. The state-level presidential vote targets are obtained from the Federal Election Commission. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey among registered voters is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval, we use the weighted data to generate 5,000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. Group Total RVs Unweighted N 958 Plus or minus 3.9 Republican RVs Democrat RVs Independent RVs 515 128 299 5.2 11.2 6.3 Male RVs Female RVs 475 483 5.4 5.3 White RVs 784 4.2