NBC News SurveyMonkey National Poll Results EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday, July 19, 2019 at 4:30AM ET The NBC News SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online from Tuesday, July 2 until Tuesday, July 16, 2019. Results are among a national sample of 15,529 adults aged 18 and over, including 13,553 registered voters. The error estimate for registered voters is plus or minus 1.2 percentage points. Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below. TOPLINE RESULTS Among registered voters Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Foreign policy 3 4 The environment 14 11 Terrorism 3 5 Immigration 22 15 Health care 21 22 Jobs and the economy 21 25 Education 8 9 Other 8 9 No answer 1 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 32 29 Somewhat approve 16 16 Somewhat disapprove 10 9 Strongly disapprove 41 45 If the Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today and the following candidates were running, who would you vote for? [AMONG DEM AND DEM-LEANERS; RANDOMIZED] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Kamala Harris Pete Buttigieg Beto O’Rourke Cory Booker Julian Castro Andrew Yang Amy Klobuchar Tim Ryan Kirsten Gillibrand Marianne Williamson Tulsi Gabbard Bill de Blasio Michael Bennet John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee John Delaney Joe Sestak Steve Bullock Mike Gravel Seth Moulton Wayne Messam No answer 7/2-7/16/19 25 16 16 14 8 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 No answer 1 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 4 3 Somewhat approve 20 22 Somewhat disapprove 32 30 No answer 2 2 Strongly disapprove 43 44 Do you approve or disapprove of the way your state legislature is handling its job? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Strongly approve 8 7 Somewhat approve 40 39 Somewhat disapprove 27 29 Strongly disapprove 22 23 No answer 2 2 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 24 23 Fairly good 44 46 Fairly bad 22 22 Very bad 8 8 No answer 2 2 How would you rate the condition of your state economy these days? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very good 17 17 Fairly good 49 49 Fairly bad 23 23 Very bad 9 10 No answer 2 2 How often do you trust the federal government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 3 2 Most of the time 11 12 About half of the time 25 25 Some of the time 31 33 No answer 1 1 Almost never 29 27 How often do you trust the state government to do what is right? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Just about always 3 3 Most of the time 20 20 About half of the time 28 29 Some of the time 25 27 No answer 1 1 Almost never 23 21 Thinking about the elections next year, how important will state government spending on infrastructure be to your vote? 7/2—7/16/19 Very important 35 Somewhat important 47 Not very important 12 Not at all important 4 No answer 2 How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to improve public schools in your state? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing 21 23 Somewhat willing 33 35 Not too willing 24 23 Not at all willing 22 18 No answer 1 1 How willing would you be to pay higher taxes to fund improvements to infrastructure, like roads and bridges, in your state? 7/2—7/16/19 9/9—9/24/18 Very willing 19 19 Somewhat willing 40 43 Not too willing 24 23 Not at all willing 16 13 No answer 1 1 Thinking about the elections next year, if a candidate wanted to expand Medicaid in your state, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 7/2—7/16/2019 More likely Less likely Wouldn’t make much difference No answer 39 28 31 2 In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 7/2—7/16/2019 Yes 32 No 64 No answer 3 METHODOLOGY The NBC News SurveyMonkey National poll was conducted online between July 2, 2019 and July 16, 2019 among a national sample of 15,529 adults aged 18 and over, including 13,553 registered voters. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than two million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. A multi-stage raking was performed to construct national weights. First state-division geographic units were defined according to state-level population sizes and Census division classification. States with over five million residents are defined as standalone units, while smaller states are grouped together within Census division to form secondary geographic units. At the first stage of raking, the sample is weighted to adult population sizes of state-division geographic units to generate initial weights. The second stage of raking adjusts initial weights by gender, age, race, and education for non-voters of 2016 general election and gender, age, race, education and presidential vote for voters of 2016 general election. Gender, age, race and education are weighted to match targets from the American Community Survey within each Census region, while the 2016 presidential vote is weighted to the national election results obtained from the Federal Election Commission. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey among registered voters is plus or minus 1.2 percentage points. To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval, we use the weighted data to generate 5,000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. Group Total RVs Unweighted N 13,553 Plus or minus 1.2 Republican RVs Democrat RVs Independent RVs 6,037 5,548 1,779 1.8 2.0 3.4 Male RVs Female RVs 6,883 6,670 1.5 1.6 White RVs Black RVs Hispanic RVs Other RVs 10,455 1,091 757 1,250 1.4 4.4 4.5 4.1