Estimated Read by Grade 3 Retention Rates A Report Prepared for the Michigan Department of Education June 2019 Estimated Read by Grade Three Retention Rates OVERVIEW AND PURPOSE • The Education Policy Innovation Collaborative (EPIC) is the strategic research partner to the Michigan Department of Education (MDE). • EPIC provides technical research support to the MDE to improve education outcomes for Michigan students. • To support the administration of the Read by Grade 3 law (RBG3), the MDE has asked EPIC to estimate retention rates for Michigan public school students. • In response, we have estimated statewide retention rates, retention rates for sub-group classifications of tested students, and tested students in different school types and geographic locales. • We have also calculated upper and lower bound estimates of RBG3 retention rates to provide a range of potential outcomes under the law. 2 Read by Grade Three Retention Rates ESTIMATION METHOD: • We use 2017-18 Grade 3 M-STEP ELA results to estimate the percentage of tested students who would be retained under RBG3 Category 1 with a score of 1252 or lower. • We estimate lower bounds by assuming all Category 1 English Learner (EL), students with disabilities (SWD), students with 504 plans and previously retained students are promoted via Good Cause Exemptions. • We provide sub-group estimates by student characteristics. Student subgroup percentages are based on the total number of student who took the test within each subgroup: – Race/Ethnicity; – Gender; – Economic disadvantage (ED); – English learners (EL); and – Students with disabilities (SWD). • We provide estimates by school characteristics: – Partnership status and ELA achievement quartile; – Public School Academy versus Local Education Agency; and – Urban locale. 3 Read by Grade Three Retention Rates LOWER BOUND ESTIMATES: • Students whose test scores fall into Category 1 but are in one of the following categories may be promoted to 4th grade with the approval of the district superintendent through a Good Cause Exemption: – English Learners (11.65% of Category 1 students); – SWDs (28.19% of Category 1 students); – Students with a 504 plan (0.90% of Category 1 students); and – Previously Retained Students (24.40% of Category 1 students). • We estimate lower bounds by assuming all Category 1 EL, SWD, students with 504 plans and previously retained students are promoted under the Good Cause Exemption. • Estimates do not account for students receiving a Good Cause Exemption due to switching schools within the last two years, parent requests, or portfolios demonstrating proficiency. 4 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated RBG3 Retention Rates by Race/Ethnicity 12.0% 10.7% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% All Students African-American American Indian or Black or Alaska Native Asian Hispanic or Latino Two or More Races White 5 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated RBG3 Retention Rates by Student Characteristics 12.0% 10.0% 9.5% 8.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% All Students Female Male Not Econ Dis. Econ. Dis. NonSWD SWD Not EL EL 6 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated RBG3 Retention Rates by School Characteristics 25.0% 19.8% 20.0% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.1% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.0% All Students Not Partner. Partner. LEA PSA Bottom 25% ELA Ach. Top 25% ELA Ach. 7 Estimated RBG3 Retention Rates by School Urbanicity Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group 12.0% 10.0% 8.1% 8.0% 6.3% 6.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% Town Rural 2.0% 0.0% All Students City Suburb Not Specified 8 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated Upper and Lower Bounds of RBG3 Retention Rates by Race/Ethnicity 12.0% 10.7% 10.0% 8.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% All Students African-American American Indian or Black or Alaska Native Lower Bound Asian 1.1% 1.0% Hispanic or Latino Two or More Races White Upper Bound Note: Lower bounds are created by assuming all EL, SWD, students with 504 plans, and previously retained students in Category 1 are promoted under a Good Cause Exemption outlined in statute. 9 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated Upper and Lower Bounds of RBG3 Retention Rates by Student Characteristics 12.0% 9.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 0% 0.7% 0.0% All Students Female Male Not Econ Econ. Dis. Dis. 2.3% Non-SWD SWD 0% Not EL EL Lower Bound Upper Bound Note: Lower bounds are created by assuming all EL, SWD, students with 504 plans, and previously retained students in Category 1 are promoted under a Good Cause Exemption outlined in statute. 10 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated Upper and Lower Bounds of RBG3 Retention Rates by School Characteristics 25.0% 19.8% 20.0% 15.0% 12.5% 12.3% 10.0% 7.1% 5.0% 4.4% 6.8% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1.7% All Students Not Partner. 1.0% 1.9% Partner. Lower Bound LEA Upper Bound 0.4% PSA Bottom 25% ELA Ach. Top 25% ELA Ach. Note: Lower bounds are created by assuming all EL, SWD, students with 504 plans, and previously retained students in Category 1 are promoted under a Good Cause Exemption outlined in statute. 11 Statewide Estimated Retention Rates for all Tested Students in Each Sub-Group Estimated Upper and Lower Bounds of RBG3 Retention Rates by School Urbanicity 12.0% 10.0% 8.1% 8.0% 6.0% 4.4% 4.0% 2.0% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% All Students City Suburb Town Rural Lower Bound Upper Bound Note: Lower bounds are created by assuming all EL, SWD, students with 504 plans, and previously retained students in Category 1 are promoted under a Good Cause Exemption outlined in statute. 12 Read by Grade Three Retention Rates KEY TAKEAWAYS: Depending on how many students receive Good Cause Exemptions, estimates suggest that: • Between 2% and 5% of 3rd graders may be retained as a result of Read by Grade 3. • Between 7% and 11% of African Americans may be retained. • Up to 10% of Special Education students may be retained. • Between 12-20% of students in Partnership Schools may be retained. • Between 2-4% of students in Traditional Public Schools may be retained and between 4-7% of students in Public School Academies may be retained. 13 EPIC Education Policy Innovation Collaborative RESEARCH WITH CONSEQUENCE Education Policy Innovation Collaborative COLLEGE OF EDUCATION MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY 201 Erickson Hall, 620 Farm Lane, East Lansing, MI 48824 (517) 884?0377 I EPlCedpolicy@msu.edu