Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director
(203) 535-6203
Rubenstein
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: JULY 25, 2019

BIDEN IS ONLY LEADING DEM TO TOP TRUMP IN OHIO,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
FORMER V.P. HAS BIG LEAD IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 – 42 percent in the
critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican
incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President
Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:
•
•
•
•
•

46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
44 – 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
44 – 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with

Trump. Biden leads 53 – 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden
and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent
for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 – 8 percent.
Independent voters go to Biden 55 – 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 – 10
percent as Biden leads 96 – 2 percent among Democrats.
“Former Vice President Joseph Biden calls himself a blue-collar guy. With Ohio
certainly a blue-collar state, it is no surprise he is the Democrat who runs best against President
Donald Trump and is solidly ahead in the Democratic primary in the Buckeye State,” said Peter
Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Biden runs best against President Trump in every Quinnipiac University state poll so far.
To get reelected, Trump will need to win the industrial Midwest. Ohio certainly is key to that
plan.”
-more-

 Quinnipiac University Poll/July 25, 2019 – page 2
Most Ohio voters, 58 percent, say they are better off financially today than they were in
2016, as 22 percent say they are worse off.
But Buckeye voters still give Trump a negative 43 – 52 percent job approval rating,
compared to a negative 43 – 54 percent score in a June 13, 2018 Quinnipiac University poll.
Democratic Primary
Biden leads the pack for the March 17 Democratic Presidential Primary, with 31 percent
of Democrats and independent voters leaning Democratic.
Harris and Sanders have 14 percent each, with 13 percent for Warren and 6 percent for
Buttigieg. There are eight candidates at 1 percent and 12 candidates polling at less than 1
percent.
“Vice President Biden’s blue-collar roots aren’t necessarily the key to his success. It’s
his half century in Democratic politics and almost universal name recognition,” Brown said.
“After all, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is the only native Buckeye in the crowded Democratic
pack, yet he is polling at just 1 percent. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg also is getting little
help from his status as a neighbor.
“The other three coastal candidates – Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and
Kamala Harris – are not getting any special love from the blue collar base. And each of them
trail Biden by a 2-1 margin.”
From July 17 – 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,431 Ohio voters with a margin of
error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 556
Democrats and independent voters leaning Democratic, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1
percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold
standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell
phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a
dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

2

 1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot,
some, only a little, or none at all?

A lot
Some
Only a little
None at all
DK/NA

A lot
Some
Only a little
None at all
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

42%
30
16
11
1

45%
35
13
6
-

53%
26
14
7
-

31%
32
19
18
-

42%
28
18
11
1

42%
32
14
11
1

50%
29
13
8
1

37%
34
17
11
1

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

25%
28
28
19
-

44%
29
17
10
1

42%
32
15
10
1

46%
20
16
18
-

38%
36
12
12
1

47%
27
15
10
1

55%
31
9
4
1

41%
35
14
10
1

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
WHITE......
LIBERAL..... Mod/
COLLEGE DEG
Tot
Very
Smwht Cons
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
Yes
No
A lot
Some
Only a little
None at all
DK/NA

A lot
Some
Only a little
None at all
DK/NA

49%
27
15
9
-

57%
28
13
2
-

49%
30
14
6
-

45%
25
15
14
-

45%
28
17
10
-

52%
26
12
8
-

50%
28
15
7
-

53%
21
13
14
-

PARTYID.....
Dem
DemLn

AGE IN YRS.......
18-49 50-64 65+

INCOME.............
<50k
50-100 100k+

53%
26
14
7
-

38%
29
18
14
-

42%
28
19
11
-

40%
30
16
13
-

54%
24
16
6
-

65%
25
5
4
-

56%
26
13
5
1

58%
26
11
6
-

44%
30
19
8
-

58%
26
10
7
-

3

 2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being
held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala
Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro,
Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang,
Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock,
Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
WHITE......
LIBERAL..... Mod/
COLLEGE DEG
Tot
Very
Smwht Cons
Men
Wom
Wht
Blk
Yes
No
Biden
Sanders
O'Rourke
Harris
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Castro
Gabbard
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Delaney
Buttigieg
Yang
Williamson
Messam
Ryan
Moulton
Bennet
Bullock
de Blasio
Gravel
Sestak
Steyer
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

31%
14
1
14
13
1
1
1
1
6
1
1
1
1
2
11

16%
21
25
18
1
1
1
8
2
7

24%
16
12
21
4
2
10
1
8

40%
8
2
10
7
1
1
1
4
1
2
2
2
3
14

31%
14
1
15
13
1
1
1
8
3
2
2
6

31%
13
1
14
12
1
2
1
5
1
2
3
14

30%
12
1
14
16
1
2
1
8
1
2
1
9

36%
20
2
18
5
1
1
1
3
4
9

25%
9
20
20
1
2
1
8
1
1
2
9

34%
14
1
8
13
1
1
1
8
2
2
1
1
1
1
10

Cont’d

4

 2 cont’d. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were
being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke,
Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian
Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg,
Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet,
Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would
you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS..........................
PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.......
INCOME.............
Dem
DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+
<50k
50-100 100k+
Biden
Sanders
O'Rourke
Harris
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Castro
Gabbard
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Delaney
Buttigieg
Yang
Williamson
Messam
Ryan
Moulton
Bennet
Bullock
de Blasio
Gravel
Sestak
Steyer
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

33%
11
1
14
15
1
2
1
1
6
2
1
2
1
9

25%
21
1
15
8
8
3
1
2
15

15%
25
2
17
12
10
2
1
1
2
1
9

38%
7
1
16
15
1
2
1
1
1
6
2
1
9

51%
1
10
15
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
10

34%
18
1
11
10
1
5
1
2
3
1
12

25%
11
2
20
17
1
3
1
1
1
5
2
1
1
8

29%
9
1
16
16
1
1
1
1
13
1
2
9

Cont’d

5

 2 cont’d. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were
being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke,
Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian
Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg,
Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet,
Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would
you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1
Little/
A lot Some
None
Biden
Sanders
O'Rourke
Harris
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Castro
Gabbard
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Delaney
Buttigieg
Yang
Williamson
Messam
Ryan
Moulton
Bennet
Bullock
de Blasio
Gravel
Sestak
Steyer
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

36%
7
20
14
2
1
9
1
2
1
6

30%
18
3
9
15
2
1
1
7
2
1
1
2
9

21%
23
1
7
9
1
1
1
3
3
3
1
3
24

6

 3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden
the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Biden
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Biden
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

50%
42
2
2
4

10%
86
1
3

96%
2
1

55%
32
3
6
5

46%
45
3
2
4

53%
40
1
2
3

49%
44
1
2
4

41%
52
1
2
3

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

61%
25
4
6
4

41%
50
2
2
4

45%
48
1
2
4

84%
8
2
1
5

43%
50
2
1
4

49%
46
1
2
3

50%
45
1
1
4

47%
47
2
3

4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie
Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Sanders
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Sanders
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

45%
46
2
3
4

5%
91
1
2

91%
4
1
3
2

51%
35
2
5
7

41%
51
2
2
4

49%
41
2
3
5

44%
48
2
3
3

37%
55
1
3
4

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

59%
32
3
3
4

37%
56
2
3
3

40%
52
2
3
3

80%
9
2
2
6

41%
52
2
2
4

44%
49
1
3
3

41%
49
2
4
3

43%
48
2
4
4

7

 5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth
Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Warren
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Warren
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

45%
46
2
3
4

4%
91
1
2
2

94%
2
2
2

48%
37
2
6
7

40%
51
2
3
4

49%
42
1
4
5

42%
48
1
4
4

36%
55
1
3
5

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

54%
32
3
5
6

36%
56
1
3
4

39%
52
1
3
5

80%
10
4
3
4

38%
53
3
3
2

44%
47
1
3
5

45%
48
1
2
4

42%
49
1
4
5

6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala
Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Harris
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Harris
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

44%
44
2
3
7

6%
90
1
2

92%
3
1
1
3

43%
34
3
7
13

40%
48
2
3
6

47%
41
1
3
7

42%
46
2
4
6

36%
54
1
3
6

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

55%
27
3
5
10

36%
54
2
4
5

39%
51
1
3
6

81%
8
2
3
6

39%
51
3
3
4

43%
48
1
3
6

42%
48
2
2
5

41%
48
1
3
7

8

 7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete
Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Buttigieg
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Buttigieg
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

44%
44
2
3
6

5%
91
1
3

91%
3
1
2
3

47%
32
3
7
11

42%
48
2
3
5

46%
41
2
3
8

43%
47
1
3
5

35%
53
2
3
6

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

58%
28
1
5
7

38%
53
1
4
4

39%
50
1
3
6

79%
9
2
3
7

37%
51
4
3
5

42%
47
1
3
7

41%
48
2
3
5

40%
48
2
3
7

8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Cory
Booker the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Booker
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Booker
Trump
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

43%
44
2
3
6

4%
89
1
2
4

92%
3
2
2

44%
34
5
6
11

40%
49
3
3
5

46%
41
2
4
7

43%
47
2
4
5

36%
53
2
3
6

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

58%
29
3
5
6

36%
54
2
3
4

39%
50
2
3
6

80%
9
3
2
5

35%
51
5
3
6

42%
47
1
3
6

42%
48
2
3
5

40%
48
2
4
7

9

 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as
president?

Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA

Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

43%
52
5

87%
11
2

4%
96
-

32%
58
10

45%
49
6

41%
54
5

44%
51
5

53%
42
5

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

25%
65
10

50%
44
6

49%
46
5

7%
88
5

50%
47
2

47%
49
4

48%
49
3

48%
47
4

15. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in
2016?

Better off
Worse off
SAME(VOL)
DK/NA

Better off
Worse off
SAME(VOL)
DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Yes
No

58%
22
17
3

86%
5
8
1

30%
41
27
2

56%
24
17
3

66%
18
15
2

52%
26
19
4

66%
17
17
1

61%
19
17
3

AGE IN YRS..............
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

WHITE.....
Men
Wom

Wht

Blk

67%
17
13
3

70%
16
13
1

63%
18
17
2

33%
44
17
6

61%
20
17
2

55%
26
18
2

49%
23
24
4

57%
20
20
3

10