BEN DIXENU AMANDI FIRM BACKGROUND FORD FOUNDAHON Knight Foundation Informed Engaged Communities UNIVERSITY at&t FJ?iami ?stula MIAMIHERALDLOM ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 BENDIXEN AMANDI Research Strategies Media u, WORLD BANKGROUP THE HOUSE WASHINGTON AMANDI INTERNATIONAL 2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION A survey of the Miami-Dade County Real Estate market from the perspective of the top industry experts and professionals. ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3 PROJECT OVERVIEW • Miami-Dade’s real estate market has historically been a significant driver of the local economy whose impact cannot be understated. This project was conceived as a deep dive into the ‘State of Real Estate’ from the perspective of real estate professionals throughout Miami-Dade County. • Our approach was to capture the perspective of 100 of the Top Brokers/Agents and industry experts in MiamiDade County to gain their insights into the county-wide market. The interviews were anonymous, providing a forum through which industry professionals could speak freely and candidly about what they were seeing both positive and negative. • The Miami Herald is the traditional community conversation starter and as such we believed was the natural partner for this type of project. The results of the survey research will be the focus of a feature story in the Business Monday section of the Miami Herald. • First begun in 2015, this is the fifth annual iteration of the Miami-Dade residential real estate study. ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 4 METHODOLOGY SAMPLE 100 in-depth, executive interviews with ‘industry leaders’ in the Miami-Dade County Residential Real Estate Market DATES OF INTERVIEWS April 1st, 2019 – May 1st, 2019 LANGUAGE OF INTERVIEWS English and Spanish ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 5 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Francia Alvarez Mauricio Barba Karen Alvarez Thomas Bartelmo Wilma Alvarez Sarkis Anac Oscar Arellano Joel Arguello Anthony Askowitz Leon Bell Robbie Bell Tere Bernace Eric Broad Cristina Broche ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 6 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Daniel Castillo Jill Casuso Ana Cuan Oliver Davis Jill Eber Lydia Eskenazi Jose Fernandez Luis Fernandez David Delgado Juan Carlos Fernandez ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Maite Diaz Nancy Dowson Maria Ferrer Pedro Garcia 7 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Jennifer Garret Daniel Gomez Jorge Guerra Carlos Gutierrez Claudia Gonzalez Daniel Hernandez Ginnette Gonzalez Jill Hertzberg Nelson Gonzalez David Hunt-Solomon ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Anthony Graziano Daniel Ickowicz Daniel Guerra Anna Jimenez 8 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Shahab Karmely Roy Lemus Neisen Kasdin Ariel Lopez Patricia Keon Margarita Lozano Teresa Kinney Yasmina La Paz Carolina Lara Lucas Lechuga Lourdes Maestres June Makis Janice Martinez Joel Matus ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 9 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Pamela Mayers Jack McCabe Maria Obediente Patrick O’Connell Jose Medina Alan Ojeda Patricia Mellerson Maria Olmo Liza Mendez Roman Pavlik ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Patricia Millan Miriam Mizrahi Jay Parker Dora Puig 10 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Carlos Ramos Michele Redlich Branden Rivero Carlos Rosso Claudia Salaverria Gloria Salom Arturo Rodriguez Estela Serrano Jaime Rodriguez Star Rodriguez Joshua Shemtov Jeannett Slesnick ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Madeleine Romanello Michael Smith 11 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY INSIDERS Marcio Sousa Craig Studnicky Henry Torres Bill Worrell Louis Wolfson III Peter Zalewski Raul Valdes-Fauli Cristina Valencia Judy Zeder Kara Zeder ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Rafael Velasquez Mark Zilbert Walid Wahab Christopher Zoller Tracey Watson Bernard Zyscovich 12 RESEARCH TEAM Isabella Aires Ribeiro Sophronia Eckenrode Katherine Poppetti Charles Rilli Daniela Ferrera Morgan Henry Marian Moreno Paola Sardi Anastasia Zausner Anthony Williams Project Coordinator ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 13 CURRENT STATE OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 14 Under $1 million Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of quality? 26% 20% 54% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Good quality Bad quality Average 15 Over $1 million Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of quality? 27% 13% 60% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Good quality Bad quality Average 16 Representative Quotes Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of quality? “Good quality, good opportunity for investments.” – Developer (North Dade) “For $1 million and over, first class properties are less than other cities. New York is 4-times Miami prices for similar quality.” – Broker (Brickell) “Quality continues to improve to meet demand with luxury product” – Agent (All of Miami) “A lot investors have flipped houses, not good practical bones of structure.” – Agent (North Dade) “Generally high quality for the price.” - Broker (South Miami) "Over saturated in Sunny Isles Beach, however prices have been going down, now is the best time to buy." - Industry Expert (Miami Beach) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 17 Under $1 million Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of value? 24% 11% 65% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Good value Overvalued Average 18 Over $1 million Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of value? 7% 41% 52% Good value Overvalued Average ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 19 Representative Quotes Thinking about your area of specialization, what is your opinion of the current market inventory in terms of value? “Good value compared to other major cities.” – Broker (Coral Gables) “Values are a bit higher than what they're actually worth.” – Agent (Miami Lakes) “For properties under $1 million its difficult, median incomes are insufficient. For properties $1 million and over, Miami delivers the best value." – Agent (All of Miami) “Correction of prices in the near future will see more decrease before stabilization.” – Agent (Coral Gables) “It's a case by case basis, for under $1 million with no underpriced steals; it’s either reasonably priced or overpriced.” - Broker (Bal Harbour) "Not much inventory in homes, there is an undersupply, and not enough buyers in condos, oversupply." - Developer (Miami Beach) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 20 Is now the time to buy or sell? 69% 16% 7% 8% Buy Sell Both ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Other 21 Is now the time to rent or own? 3% 15% 4% Own 78% Rent Both Other ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 22 Are you seeing a shift in interest in buying vs. renting? 2% 3% 35% 60% Yes No Both Other ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 23 If so, in which direction? Asked to only of those that said "yes" to a shift in interest 44% 56% More buying More renting ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 24 Recent rental developments have included amenities such as concierge services, workout facilities, business centers, and recreational facilities. Do you believe the inclusion of these amenities in rental facilities have resulted in more people preferring renting over buying? 3% 37% Yes 60% No Other ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 25 What is the hottest area in Miami-Dade right now, for renters? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Brickell 1. Brickell 2. Downtown 2. Downtown ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Miami Beach/Edgewater 3. Midtown 26 What is the hottest area in Miami-Dade right now, for buyers? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Miami Beach 1. Coral Gables 2. Kendall 2. Miami Beach ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Coral Gables 3. Coconut Grove 27 What is the most overvalued neighborhood? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Miami Beach 1. Miami Beach 2. Brickell 2. Brickell ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Coral Gables 3. Sunny Isles Beach 28 What is the most undervalued neighborhood? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. North Miami 1. Homestead 2. Little Havana 2. Miami Shores ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Homestead 3. North Miami 29 What is the best neighborhood for young professionals? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Brickell 1. Brickell 2. Downtown 2. Downtown ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Coral Gables 3. Midtown 30 What is the best neighborhood for families with children? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Coral Gables 1. Coral Gables 2. Pinecrest 2. Pinecrest ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Miami Shores 3. Doral 31 What is the best neighborhood for retirees? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Miami Beach 1. Miami Beach 2. Not in Dade 2. Coral Gables ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Coral Gables 3. Aventura 32 If you were in the market for a single family home where would you buy right now? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Coral Gables 1. Coral Gables 2. Miami Beach 2. Coconut Grove ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Miami Lakes 3. Miami Beach 33 If you were in the market to buy a condo, where would you buy right now? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Brickell 1. Brickell 2. Miami Beach 2. Miami Beach ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Edgewater 3. Coral Gables 34 Representative Quotes If you were in the market to buy a condo, where would you buy right now? "Depends on age, Brickell." - Industry Expert (Miami Beach) "Edgewater has the best values." - Real Estate Agent (All of Dade County) "Depending on budget, Bal Harbour." - Real Estate Broker (Northern Miami Dade) "Along coastline." - Real Estate Agent (Coconut Grove) “Miami Beach has a lot of good condo opportunities.” – Broker (Miami Beach) “Buy in Brickell." - Developer (Bal Harbour) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 35 If you were in the market to rent an apartment, where would you rent right now? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Brickell 1. Brickell 2. Miami Beach 2. Miami Beach ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Edgewater 3. Coral Gables 36 What areas would you avoid buying in altogether? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Brickell 1. Brickell 2. Miami Beach 2. Miami Beach ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Homestead 3. Downtown 37 Do you think the Trump administration’s tax reform is influencing the Miami-Dade residential market? 3% 38% 59% Yes No Don't Know ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 38 How is the Trump administration’s tax reform influencing the Miami-Dade residential market? 32% 68% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Increase of Northeasterners in Miami market More money in people's pockets 39 Representative Quotes Do you think the Trump administration’s tax reform is influencing the Miami-Dade residential market? “Yes, there is an increase of buyers from high tax states such as New York, Chicago and New Jersey." - Real Estate Agent (Miami Beach) "Big developers moving into opportunity zones that have vacant land and their idea is not to create affordable housing but to create a profit, they don't keep in mind who they are building for. Overpriced and only benefits developers not the community." - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade) "Yes, people are coming down to Miami-Dade from up north due to less regional taxes and the cap on property tax." - Government Official (Miami Beach) “The tax cuts have led to an influx of buyers from mostly Northeastern states and California.” - Broker (All of Miami-Dade) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 40 Historically the single largest source of domestic buyers of Miami real estate are from the state of New York. Knowing that, how would you describe the impact New Yorkers have on the local market? 9% 9% 25% Big/Positive Impact 4% 53% Buying/Investing More No Impact Don't Know Other ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 41 O_u 2.2?me MWmm?dzw Ewdm?Q mm??m macU< M03 :z 20.5.? 5b Generally speaking, over the next twelve months do you expect residential home values in Miami-Dade County to appreciate, depreciate or remain flat? 3% 63% 18% 16% Appreciate Depreciate Remain Flat Other ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 43 Appreciate If appreciate or depreciate, by how much? Asked only of those that said residential home values would appreciate 60% 40% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 More than 5% Less than 5% 44 Depreciate If appreciate or depreciate, by how much? Asked only of those that said residential home values would depreciate 42% 58% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 More than 5% Less than 5% 45 If you were advising an investor or homeowner looking to make a good return on investment 5 years down the road, where is the next emerging market, area or neighborhood where you would advise them to buy today? 2019 Results: 2018 Results: 1. Edgewater 1. Design District 2. North Miami Beach 2. Upper East Side ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 3. Homestead 3. Little Havana 46 Representative Quotes If you were advising an investor or homeowner looking to make a good return on investment 5 years down the road, where is the next emerging market, area or neighborhood where you would advise them to buy today? “Edgewater will continue growing, still opportunities in Brickell/Downtown. More office space development continues to drive interest in Downtown." - Industry Expert (Miami Beach) “North Miami Beach has a lot of potential. “ - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade County) "Anywhere inside Miami-Dade is good. You can always use property as a rental." - Real Estate Broker (Doral) “The Edgewater and Downtown areas are especially good for positive investment right now." - Real Estate Broker (Hialeah) "Nowhere prices will drop." - Real Estate Broker (North Miami) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 47 mm??m macU< M03 .2 r721. .021? 35:5??983 gm How are most of your clients financing their purchases? 20% 4% 43% 33% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Mortgages Cash Both Other 49 Are you concerned about the potential impact of global climate change and sea level rise on the local market? 5% 34% 2017 Results: 59% - Yes 61% 40% - No ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 Yes No Don't Know 1% - Don’t Know 50 Have your clients mentioned this as an issue? 34% 66% Yes No ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 51 How do factors such as property taxes and windstorm insurance influence buyer decisions in Miami-Dade County? 17% 32% 51% High Influence No Infuence Some Influence ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 52 Representative Quotes How do factors such as property taxes and windstorm insurance influence buyer decisions in Miami-Dade County? “It does influence negatively because of the high costs paid; it impacts living expenses." - Construction Firm Developer (All of Dade) "People have to expect a big increase, tax softens ability for people to buy something because it gets too expensive." - Real Estate Broker (Kendall) "Tax is a huge factor in decision, some are unfamiliar with it." - Real Estate Agent (Coral Gables) "Tax on property is too high. The hefty amount is creating problems. Sometimes you can afford mortgage but not after adding taxes." - Real Estate Agent (Kendall) "Very much, Miami is very expensive, some people can barely afford it and if you increase their expenses by 400/500 dollars it makes a difference!" - Industry Expert (Bal Harbour) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 53 In your opinion, how does traffic congestion influence decisions regarding real estate in Miami-Dade County? 14% 3% Big Influence 83% ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 No Influence Somewhat Influence 54 Representative Quotes In your opinion, how does traffic congestion influence decisions regarding real estate in Miami-Dade County? “Big issue, too much commute time." - Industry Expert (Miami Beach) "Yes, people want to live close to where they work." - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade County) "It does, people want to be in neighborhoods that are closer to beaches, downtown and schools." - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade County) "People are now moving towards areas located near public transportation (specifically trains: the metro, tri rail, bright line). - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade County) "Heavy Influence on 70% of clients. People are looking for live, work, and play in the same area." - Real Estate Agent (All of Miami-Dade County) "Forcing people to look at traffic pattern to make a purchase decision." - Real Estate Broker (Edgewater) ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 55 If you were selling your own home, and you couldn’t use your own company who is the one brokerage that you would hire? ANNUAL MIAMI-DADE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE STUDY 2019 56 Anthony Williams Project Coordinator Bendixen & Amandi International 305.529.9916 anthony@bendixenonline.com Jane Wooldridge Editor Miami Herald Media Company 305.376.3629 jwooldridge@miamiherald.com