MASON-DIXON® MISSISSIPPI POLL JULY 2019 Polling in Mississippi since 1987 EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Tuesday, July 30, 2019 Broadcast & Internet Release – 6 am CST, Tuesday, July 30, 2019 © Copyright 2019 1 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 REEVES LEADS WALLER IN GOP PRIMARY, BUT A RUN-OFF STILL POSSIBLE With a week to go before Mississippi’s Republican gubernatorial primary election, Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves leads former State Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller by ten points. However, Reeves is still currently short of the 50% threshold he needs to avoid a run-off. Statewide, 41% of likely Republican primary voters support Reeves and 31% back Waller, but third place candidate Robert Foster is drawing 13% of the vote and 15% are still undecided. GOP PRIMARY VOTE 15% 41% 13% REEVES WALLER 31% FOSTER UNDECIDED Waller is running only slightly behind Reeves among women (37%-35%) and older voters (38%-35%), but Reeves builds his lead as a result of his strong margins among men (45%-27%) and voters under 50 (46%-24%) 2 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________? RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE RECOGNIZE NEUTRAL Tate Reeves 43% 19% 33% 5% Bill Waller, Jr. 42% 9% 37% 12% Robert Foster 29% 5% 21% 45% 3 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 DON'T RECOGNIZE QUESTION: If the 2019 Republican primary for Governor were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote: (ORDER ROTATED) - Tate Reeves - Bill Waller, Jr. - Robert Foster REEVES WALLER FOSTER UNDECIDED 41% 31% 13% 15% REEVES WALLER FOSTER UNDECIDED 39% 36% 46% 39% 43% 44% 31% 36% 36% 36% 29% 22% 17% 14% 8% 14% 9% 13% 13% 14% 10% 11% 19% 21% REEVES WALLER FOSTER UNDECIDED 45% 37% 27% 35% 15% 11% 13% 17% AGE REEVES WALLER FOSTER UNDECIDED <50 50+ 46% 38% 24% 35% 12% 14% 18% 13% STATE REGION Northern Mississippi The Delta Eastern Mississippi Jackson Metro Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast SEX Men Women 4 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 24 through July 27, 2019. A total of 500 likely Republican primary voters in Mississippi voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Mississippi voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect Republican primary voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. 5 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 DEMOGRAPHICS AGE: 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Refused 63 (13%) 123 (24%) 130 (26%) 181 (36%) 3 (1%) SEX: Male Female 267 (53%) 233 (47%) REGION: Northern Mississippi The Delta Eastern Mississippi Jackson Metro Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast 90 (18%) 50 (10%) 70 (14%) 100 (20%) 100 (20%) 90 (18%) 6 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019 MISSISSIPPI POLL REGIONS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in DeSoto, Marshall, Yalobusha, Lafayette, Calhoun, Pontotoc, Chickasaw, Monroe, Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Union, Benton, Tippah, Alcorn and Tishomingo counties. THE DELTA: Voters in Tate, Panola, Coahoma, Tunica, Quitman, Bolivar, Tallahatchie, Sunflower, Leflore, Grenada, Carroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Washington, Sharkey, Yazoo, Issaquena and Warren counties. EASTERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha, Choctaw, Webster, Montgomery, Attala, Leake, Scott, Smith, Jasper, Clark, Newton, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Kemper, Winston and Noxubee counties. JACKSON METRO: Voters in Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Copiah and Simpson counties. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Claiborne, Jefferson, Adams, Wilkinson, Franklin, Amite, Lincoln, Pike, Lawrence, Walthall, Jefferson Davis, Marion, Covington, Jones, Wayne, Lamar, Forrest, Perry, Greene, George, Pearl River and Stone counties. GULF COAST: Voters in Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties. 7 Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll – July 2019