Subject: FW: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow From [redacted] Sent: 15 June 2018 10:59 To: [redacted] Subject: FW: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hi [redacted] As just discussed here?s the email from [redacted] about calculating aviation emissions as result of Heathrow Expansion. lt would be worth having a chat with [redacted] about this ask. Also worth speaking with [redacted] (he took on drafting the ADT emissions paper when [redacted] was on leave) and [redacted]. On paper it seems like a reasonably straightforward ask but let me know if this proves to be more complex. Many thanks, [red acted] From: [redacted] Sent: 07 June 2018 12:00 To: [redacted] Cc [redacted] Subject: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [redacted] As discussed, it would be helpful if we could get a figure to quantify the potential increase in GHG emissions that would be generated by additional air services from Scotland to an expanded Heathrow. I?m thinking about something similar to the ?gure we came up with for the impact of reducing APD. would expect, though, that the Heathrow ?gure would be significantly less. Obviously we don?t know how many, if any, 1 additional ?ights Scotland will get from the increased capacity at Heathrow but our ask of the UK Government (not in the public dbmain) is for a proportionate share of the new capacity to be introduced sometime after 2026 which we?ve calculated as This could look like: [Redact - Reg 10(4)(e) Internal Communication] Airlines are continuing to renew their fleets so come 2026 we would expect a higher proportion of aircraft to have lower emissions. It would be helpful if this could be incorporated into the calculation. lf you need any further information please let me know. Thanks [redacted] [redacted] Aviation Policy Transport Scotland Area 2D (N) Victoria Quay Edinburgh EH6 6QQ [redacted] W4 ?3 TRANSPORT SCOTLAND COMHDHAIL ALBA An agency of IKE The Scottish Government Subject: FW: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow From: [Redacted] Sent: 03 July 2018 10:34 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hello all, I?ve just talked this through with [Redacted] -?we used [Redacted under Reg 10(4)(d) ? Vlateria in the Course of completion, unfinished documents or incomplete data] to refer to pair flights (apologies for not making this clearer!) so this is in accordance with the ask. I?ll make the changes suggested below and email back as soon as i can. Very best, [Redacted] From: [Redacted] Sent: 29 June 2018 11:26 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [Redacted] Many thanks. We?ll be having a Branch chat about this next week. A few points meantime: Any reason why the weekly return flights number is [Redacted under Reg 10(4)(d) "Material in the Course of completion, unfinished documents or incomplete data] As you know, our ask is; [Redacted under Reg 10(4)(d) ?Material in the Course of completion, unfinished documents or incomplete data] The best case scenario for the new runway is 2026. is it possible to take out some of the early years pre-2026 and add a few post 2032?; Would be useful to see these figures compared to the overall Scottish aviation emissions figures going forward it we have them and perhaps also the equivalent Heathrow third runway figures. Regards [Red acted] From: [Redacted] Sent: 26 June 2018 12:47 To [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Dear [Redacted] I hope that this ?nds you well. I?ve calculated the projected emissions we could expect for Scotland from Heathrow expansion on the basis of the additional services and passengers detailed in the draft proposal. Assuming an extra [Redacted under Reg 10(4)(d) ?Material in the Course of completion, unfinished documents or incomplete data passengers per annum, and taking into account improvements in aircraft efficiency over time (using figures for carbon per passenger from [Redacted] ADT analysis), we can expect the following additional emissions: [Redacted under Reg 10(4)(d) wMaterial in the Course of completion, unfinished documents or incomplete data] You may already be aware of this, however, passenger number forecasts from their publication in 2017 predict that Heathrow expansion will result in a net loss of air passengers from Scotland: 2030 2040 Airport Demand Low Central High Low Centrai High Low Central High Baseline 12?054?268 12?518?404 13?259?890 14,480,552 15,411,484 16,145,669 16,718,575 17,631,908 19,320,302 Edmburgh 11:13:]: 12,004,855 12,862,833 13,573,290 14,599,873 16,295,180 16,525,935 17,278,540 18,983,370 19,461,806 Difference 49,413 344,429 313,400 119,321 883,696 380,266 559,965 1,351,462 141,504 1 Baseline 11?064?99 12221593 12398315 12,297,935 13,100,622 14,290,239 14,326,104 15,259,088 16,042,200 Glasgow LH 3rd Ru may 10,893,954 11,645,763 12,493,622 12,030,067 12,117,976 13,891,667 13,959,995 14,037,473 16,124,822 Difference 471,037 575,930 405,193 -267,868 882,646 398,572 866,109 -1,221,615 82,622 This is based on a complex air passenger demand model we have contacted to explain why they predict this might be the case, and are currently awaiting a response. Very best, [Redacted] Subject: FW: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow From: [Redacted] Sent: 05 October 2018 18:16 To: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hi [Redacted] I?ve had a chance to look at the working analysis, thanks for sending this on. i have two main questions: [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] 1. What is the current expectation for finalising (and potentially publishing) this work? Happy to continue to discuss by email for new and/or to arrange to meet with yourself and others in a few weeks to review? The annual Scottish progress report did not contain new advice on aviation emissions, so we aren?t likely to hear further from them now on this until their special advice at a UK level next Spring. Nonetheless, I?d definitely like us to have a chance to discuss handling well in advance of any publication of this new TS analysis on Scottish aviation emissions. Best wishes, [Redacted] Deiivery Unit I Decarbonisation Division Directorate for Energy and Climate Change Scottish Government [Redacted]Area 3F South, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 sod @ScotGovCiimate From [Redacted] Sent: 01 October 2018 09:37 To: [Redacted] Subject: FW: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [Redacted] As discussed, we could maybe have a catch up once you?ve had a chance to look at the attached. Thanks [Redacted] From: [Redacted] Sent: 11 September 2018 14:29 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hi [Redacted], Apologies for the delay on this please find estimates attached (?Request 2 tables? tab). [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, un?nished documents, or incomplete data] [Redacted undeir 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents: or incomplete data] Very best, [Redacted] From [Redacted] Sent: 13 August 2018 13:03 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [Redacted] Sounds good. Thanks [Redacted] From [Redacted] Sent: 13 August 2018 11:45 To[Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hi [Redacted] (cc?ing [Redacted] for ADT interests) [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] Assuming you?re ok with this,[Redacted] will have an initial look at the methodologies and we can take it from there. Happy to discuss, [Redacted]. From: [Redacted] Sent: 31 July 2018 14:39 To: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [Redacted] [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] Let me know if it would be helpful to have a chat about this. Thanks [Redacted] From [Redacted] Sent: 04 .iuly 2018 11:22 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Hello all, Many thanks for your comments so far please ?nd below the updated figures. [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] [Redact - 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] Please note ?the previous tabie had a small error in the labelling of years, which has now been corrected, so the above version is the correct one. Very best, [Redacted] From: [Redacted] Sent: 29 June 2018 11:26 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: RE: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow [Redacted], Many thanks. We?ll be having a Branch chat about this next week. A few points meantime: Any reason why the weekly return flights number is [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] As you know, our ask is [Redacted under 10(4)(d) - Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] The best case scenario for the new runway is 2026. Is it possible to take out some of the early years pre-2026 and add a few post 2032?; Would be useful to see these figures compared to the overall Scottish aviation emissions figures going forward if we have them and perhaps also the equivalent Heathrow third runway ?gures. Regards [Redacted] From: [Redacted] Sent: 26 June 2018 12:47 To: [Redacted] Cc: [Redacted] Subject: Aviation emissions from an expanded Heathrow Dear [Redacted], i hope that this ?nds you well. We calculated the projected emissions we coutd expect for Scotland from Heathrow expansion on the basis of the additionai services and passengers detaited in the draft proposal. Assuming an extra [Redacted under 10(4)(d) - Material in the course of completion, un?nished documents, or incomplete data] passengers per annum, and taking into account improvements in aircraft efficiency over time (using ?gures for carbon per passenger from [Redacted] ADT analysis), we can expect the following additional emissions: [Redacted under 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] [Redacted under 10(4)(e) Internal communications] 2030 2040 Airport Demand Low Central High Low Central High Low I Central High . Jr 12: 1 I I I Baseline 259 890 14,480,552 15,411,484 16,145,669 16,718,575 17,631,908 19,320,302 Edinburgh :13: 12,004,855 12,862,833 13,573,290 14,599,873 16,295,180 16,525,935 17,278,540 18,983,370 19,461,806 Difference ?49,413 344,429 313,400 119,321 883,696 380,266 559,965 1,351,462 141,504 Baseline 11?064?991 12?221?693 12?898?815 12,297,935 13,100,622 14,290,239 14,326,104 15,259,088 16,042,200 Glasgow LHR 3rd Runway 10,893,954 11,645,763 12,493,622 12,030,067 12,117,976 13,891,667 13,959,995 14,037,473 16,124,822 Difference ?171,037 -575,930 ~405,193 -267,868 882,646 898,572 ?366,109 -1,221,615 82,622 [Redacted under 10(4)(e) Internal communications] Very best, [Redacted] Subject: FW: Heathrow Emissions Work From: [redacted] Sent: 02 November 2018 11:12 To: [redacted] Cc: [redacted] Subject: RE: Heathrow Emissions Work Hi [redacted] Can ljust check in on whether there is any update on scheduling a next aviation policy/ analysis climate policy catch up meeting? If possible, I?d like to do this in the next two week (as I am then away in late November). I?d be happy to set this up in calendars if you can con?rm attendees? Am i right in saying it would be the three of us, plus [redacted] too? Best wishes, [redacted] [redacted] Delivery Unit Decarbonisation Division Directorate for Energy and Climate Change Scottish Government [redacted] 1 Area 3F South, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 sou 1 @ScotGovCiimate From: [redacted] Sent: 26 July 2018 09:34 To: [redacted] Cc: [redacted] HI [redacted] That?s really helpful to see, thank you. [Redacted under - 10(4)(d) Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] [Redacted under 10(4)(e) lnternal communications] Best regards, and very happy to discuss any aspects of the above further, [redacted] [redacted] Delivery Unit Decarbonisation Division I Directorate for Energy and Climate Change Scottish Government [redacted] Area 3F South, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 600. I @ScotGovClimate From: [redacted] Sent: 26 July 2018 08:40 To: [redacted] Cc: [redacted] Subject: Heathrow Emissions Work [redacted] [Redacted under 10(4)(e) Internal communications] Thanks [redacted] [Redacted under 10(4)(d) - Material in the course of completion, unfinished documents, or incomplete data] [redacted] Aviation Policy Transport Scotland Area 2D (N) Victoria Quay Edinburgh EH6 BQQ [redacted] 9 TRANSPORT SCOTLAND ALBA An agency of is The Scottish Government