SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 FINAL NH DEM PRIMARY AUGUST Region: (N=500) n West/North Central Hillsborough Rockingham % 131 --------26.20 127 --------25.40 137 --------27.40 105 --------21.00 INTRO SECTION> Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk (SUFF-ick) University and I would like to get your opinions on some questions about the upcoming Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some brief questions? (quota) A. Are you a resident of New Hampshire? (N=500) n Yes 1. 500-------100.00 Gender (N=500) n Male Female 2. % % 224 --------44.80 276 --------55.20 Thinking about the Democratic Primary for President coming up in six months, how likely are you to vote in the Democratic Primary – would you say you are very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely to vote in the Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Very likely 448 --------89.60 Somewhat likely ---------------------------------------------------52 --------10.40 3. Are you currently enrolled as a Democrat, Republican, or Undeclared/Independent? (N=500) n % Democrat 271 --------54.20 Republican 11 ----------2.20 Undeclared/Independent ---------------------------------------216 --------43.20 Other 2 ----------0.40 Refused 0 ----------0.00 {FOR 3.2} 4. Just to be clear, although you are registered as a Republican, you intend to vote in the Democratic Primary in six months? (N=11) n % Yes 5. 11-------100.00 What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-25 Years 26-35 Years 36-45 Years 46-55 Years 56-65 Years 66-75 Years Over 75+ Years Refused NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters % 46 ----------9.20 75 --------15.00 84 --------16.80 92 --------18.40 91 --------18.20 79 --------15.80 31 ----------6.20 2 ----------0.40 1 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters August 2019 2 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe 6. August 2019 Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? (N=500) n % White/Caucasian -------------------------------------------------451 --------90.20 Black/African-American ------------------------------------------17 ----------3.40 American Indian/Alaska Native ----------------------------------2 ----------0.40 Asian 6 ----------1.20 Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander ------------------------0 ----------0.00 Hispanic/Latino 12 ----------2.40 Other 11 ----------2.20 Refused 1 ----------0.20 7. I’m going to read you a list of some Democratic candidates for president. Please tell me who you would vote for or lean toward at this point. If you know who you would vote for, feel free to stop me at any time. {RANDOMIZE} (N=500) n % Michael Bennet 8 ----------1.60 Joe Biden 107 --------21.40 Cory Booker 7 ----------1.40 Steve Bullock 1 ----------0.20 Pete Buttigieg 29 ----------5.80 Julian Castro 1 ----------0.20 Bill de Blasio 0 ----------0.00 John Delaney 5 ----------1.00 Tulsi Gabbard 16 ----------3.20 Kirsten Gillibrand ----------------------------------------------------3 ----------0.60 Mike Gravel 0 ----------0.00 Kamala Harris 40 ----------8.00 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------1 ----------0.25 Jay Inslee 0 ----------0.00 Amy Klobuchar 4 ----------0.80 Wayne Messam 0 ----------0.00 Seth Moulton 0 ----------0.00 Beto O’Rourke 2 ----------0.40 Tim Ryan 0 ----------0.00 Bernie Sanders 84 --------16.80 Joe Sestak 0 ----------0.00 Tom Steyer 3 ----------0.60 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------68 --------13.60 Marianne Williamson -----------------------------------------------3 ----------0.60 Andrew Yang 7 ----------1.40 Other (Specify) 6 ----------1.20 Undecided 104 --------20.80 Refused 1 ----------0.20 8. Thinking about your first choice, is your mind firmly made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? (N=395) n % Mind made up 156 --------39.49 Might change mind before primary --------------------------228 --------57.72 Undecided 10 ----------2.53 Refused 1 ----------0.25 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 3 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters August 2019 4 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 9. What would you say is the most important issue affecting your support of a Democratic nominee? (RANDOMIZE) (N=500) n % Healthcare 147 --------29.40 The economy 58 --------11.60 Income inequality --------------------------------------------------52 --------10.40 Immigration 46 ----------9.20 Trade policy 13 ----------2.60 National security ---------------------------------------------------21 ----------4.20 Climate change 76 --------15.20 Getting rid of Trump (Defeat/Impeach) ----------------------32 ----------6.40 Other 42 ----------8.40 Undecided 12 ----------2.40 Refused 1 ----------0.20 10. Who would be your second choice for the Democratic nomination? (N=395) n % Michael Bennet 16 ----------4.05 Joe Biden 52 --------13.16 Cory Booker 11 ----------2.78 Steve Bullock 2 ----------0.51 Pete Buttigieg 32 ----------8.10 Julian Castro 3 ----------0.76 Bill de Blasio 0 ----------0.00 John Delaney 3 ----------0.76 Tulsi Gabbard 2 ----------0.51 Kirsten Gillibrand ----------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.01 Mike Gravel 0 ----------0.00 Kamala Harris 36 ----------9.11 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------0 ----------0.00 Jay Inslee 1 ----------0.25 Amy Klobuchar 6 ----------1.52 Wayne Messam 0 ----------0.00 Seth Moulton 2 ----------0.51 Beto O’Rourke 1 ----------0.25 Tim Ryan 5 ----------1.27 Bernie Sanders 51 --------12.91 Joe Sestak 0 ----------0.00 Tom Steyer 3 ----------0.76 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------84 --------21.27 Marianne Williamson -----------------------------------------------8 ----------2.03 Andrew Yang 5 ----------1.27 Other (Open) 4 ----------1.01 Undecided 62 --------15.70 Refused 2 ----------0.51 {FOR 7.1 - 7.25} 11. Earlier you selected (INSERT) as your first choice to be the Democratic nominee. If the Democratic party doesn’t nominate (INSERT), who will you vote for in the general election - will you vote for the Democratic nominee, President Trump, a third party candidate, or will you skip voting in November? (N=395) n % Democratic nominee --------------------------------------------320 --------81.01 President Trump ---------------------------------------------------21 ----------5.32 Third Party Candidate --------------------------------------------16 ----------4.05 Skip voting in November -----------------------------------------12 ----------3.04 Undecided 26 ----------6.58 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 5 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe 12. August 2019 Have you attended an event for one or more of the candidates for president? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 13. 114 --------22.80 385 --------77.00 1 ----------0.20 0 ----------0.00 Have you heard from any of the campaigns directly? (N=500) Yes No Undecided Refused n % 242 --------48.40 255 --------51.00 3 ----------0.60 0 ----------0.00 {IF YES, 13.1} 14. Which campaigns specifically? {ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES} (N=242) n % Michael Bennet 10 ----------4.13 Joe Biden 52 --------21.49 Cory Booker 33 --------13.64 Steve Bullock 11 ----------4.55 Pete Buttigieg 42 --------17.36 Julian Castro 13 ----------5.37 Bill de Blasio 8 ----------3.31 John Delaney 15 ----------6.20 Tulsi Gabbard 20 ----------8.26 Kirsten Gillibrand --------------------------------------------------23 ----------9.50 Mike Gravel 4 ----------1.65 Kamala Harris 50 --------20.66 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.65 Jay Inslee 3 ----------1.24 Amy Klobuchar 21 ----------8.68 Wayne Messam 4 ----------1.65 Seth Moulton 5 ----------2.07 Beto O’Rourke 13 ----------5.37 Tim Ryan 5 ----------2.07 Bernie Sanders 84 --------34.71 Joe Sestak 6 ----------2.48 Tom Steyer 34 --------14.05 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------77 --------31.82 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------13 ----------5.37 Andrew Yang 24 ----------9.92 Other (Specify) 3 ----------1.24 Undecided 29 --------11.98 Refused 0 ----------0.00 (ROTATE 15-16) I’m going to read you a couple of issues. Please tell me how important is it to you that Democrats nominate someone who supports that issue - very important, somewhat important, not important, or are you not sure? 15. The Green New Deal (N=500) n % Very important 187 --------37.40 Somewhat important --------------------------------------------152 --------30.40 Not important 74 --------14.80 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 6 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 Undecided Refused 16. 86 --------17.20 1 ----------0.20 Impeaching President Trump (N=500) n % Very important 198 --------39.60 Somewhat important --------------------------------------------104 --------20.80 Not important 179 --------35.80 Undecided 16 ----------3.20 Refused 3 ----------0.60 17. Medicare for All (N=500) n % Very important 281 --------56.20 Somewhat important --------------------------------------------142 --------28.40 Not important 62 --------12.40 Undecided 15 ----------3.00 Refused 0 ----------0.00 {IF IMPORTANT, 17.1 or 17.2} 18. Would you support a Medicare for All plan that replaces private insurance with a single government plan? (N=423) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 19. 254 --------60.05 92 --------21.75 77 --------18.20 0 ----------0.00 A couple of days ago, two Democratic debates were just held on consecutive nights and hosted by CNN. Did you watch the debates both nights, the first night, the second night, or did you miss watching the debates? (N=500) n % Both nights 187 --------37.40 First night only 29 ----------5.80 Second night only -------------------------------------------------44 ----------8.80 Missed watching the debates ---------------------------------237 --------47.40 Undecided 3 ----------0.60 Refused 0 ----------0.00 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 7 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 {FOR 19.1, WATCHED BOTH NIGHTS} 20. Who did better than you expected? (If they mention anyone else from the alpha list remind them that they did not make the debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=187) n % Michael Bennet 13 ----------6.95 Joe Biden 31 --------16.58 Cory Booker 30 --------16.04 Steve Bullock 8 ----------4.28 Pete Buttigieg 17 ----------9.09 Julian Castro 15 ----------8.02 Bill de Blasio 4 ----------2.14 John Delaney 9 ----------4.81 Tulsi Gabbard 28 --------14.97 Kirsten Gillibrand --------------------------------------------------12 ----------6.42 Kamala Harris 23 --------12.30 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------4 ----------2.14 Jay Inslee 5 ----------2.67 Amy Klobuchar 3 ----------1.60 Beto O’Rourke 4 ----------2.14 Tim Ryan 2 ----------1.07 Bernie Sanders 17 ----------9.09 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------35 --------18.72 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------13 ----------6.95 Andrew Yang 20 --------10.70 Other (Open) 2 ----------1.07 Undecided 25 --------13.37 Refused 3 ----------1.60 {FOR 19.1, WATCHED BOTH NIGHTS} 21. Who did worse than you expected? ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=187) n % Michael Bennet 8 ----------4.28 Joe Biden 54 --------28.88 Cory Booker 5 ----------2.67 Steve Bullock 3 ----------1.60 Pete Buttigieg 6 ----------3.21 Julian Castro 8 ----------4.28 Bill de Blasio 11 ----------5.88 John Delaney 10 ----------5.35 Tulsi Gabbard 10 ----------5.35 Kirsten Gillibrand ----------------------------------------------------6 ----------3.21 Kamala Harris 46 --------24.60 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------2 ----------1.07 Jay Inslee 4 ----------2.14 Amy Klobuchar 1 ----------0.53 Beto O’Rourke 7 ----------3.74 Tim Ryan 3 ----------1.60 Bernie Sanders 9 ----------4.81 Elizabeth Warren ----------------------------------------------------7 ----------3.74 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 8 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 Marianne Williamson -----------------------------------------------8 ----------4.28 Andrew Yang 0 ----------0.00 Other (Open) 1 ----------0.53 Undecided 40 --------21.39 Refused 3 ----------1.60 {FOR 19.2, WATCHED FIRT NIGHT ONLY} 22. Who did better than you expected? (If they mention anyone else from the alpha list remind them that they did not make the debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=29) n % Steve Bullock 4 --------13.79 Pete Buttigieg 5 --------17.24 John Delaney 0 ----------0.00 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------0 ----------0.00 Amy Klobuchar 1 ----------3.45 Beto O’Rourke 1 ----------3.45 Tim Ryan 4 --------13.79 Bernie Sanders 4 --------13.79 Elizabeth Warren ----------------------------------------------------5 --------17.24 Marianne Williamson -----------------------------------------------1 ----------3.45 Other (Open) 0 ----------0.00 Undecided 6 --------20.69 Refused 2 ----------6.90 {FOR 19.2, WATCHED FIRST NIGHT ONLY} 23. Who did worse than you expected? ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=29) n % Steve Bullock 0 ----------0.00 Pete Buttigieg 0 ----------0.00 John Delaney 2 ----------6.90 John Hickenlooper --------------------------------------------------2 ----------6.90 Amy Klobuchar 3 --------10.34 Beto O’Rourke 1 ----------3.45 Tim Ryan 1 ----------3.45 Bernie Sanders 0 ----------0.00 Elizabeth Warren ----------------------------------------------------6 --------20.69 Marianne Williamson -----------------------------------------------2 ----------6.90 Other (Open) 3 --------10.34 Undecided 10 --------34.48 Refused 1 ----------3.45 {FOR 19.3, WATCHED SECOND NIGHT ONLY} 24. Who did better than you expected? (If they mention anyone else from the alpha list remind them that they did not make the debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=44) n % Michael Bennet 2 ----------4.55 Joe Biden 5 --------11.36 Cory Booker 8 --------18.18 Julian Castro 1 ----------2.27 Bill de Blasio 1 ----------2.27 Tulsi Gabbard 8 --------18.18 Kirsten Gillibrand ----------------------------------------------------2 ----------4.55 Kamala Harris 9 --------20.45 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 9 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 Jay Inslee Andrew Yang Other (Open) Undecided Refused NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 1 ----------2.27 7 --------15.91 3 ----------6.82 11 --------25.00 0 ----------0.00 10 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 {FOR 19.3, WATCHED SECOND NIGHT ONLY} 25. Who did worse than you expected? (If they mention anyone else from the alpha list remind them that they did not make this debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF THEY CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=44) n % Michael Bennet 1 ----------2.27 Joe Biden 16 --------36.36 Cory Booker 0 ----------0.00 Julian Castro 0 ----------0.00 Bill de Blasio 2 ----------4.55 Tulsi Gabbard 1 ----------2.27 Kirsten Gillibrand ----------------------------------------------------4 ----------9.09 Kamala Harris 4 ----------9.09 Jay Inslee 0 ----------0.00 Andrew Yang 1 ----------2.27 Other (Open) 2 ----------4.55 Undecided 20 --------45.45 Refused 0 ----------0.00 TOTAL BETTER THAN EXPECTED (N=260) n % Michael Bennet ---------------------------------------------------15 ----------5.77 Joe Biden 36 --------13.85 Cory Booker 38 --------14.62 Steve Bullock 12 ----------4.62 Pete Buttigieg 22 ----------8.46 Julian Castro 16 ----------6.15 Bill de Blasio 5 ----------1.92 John Delaney 9 ----------3.46 Tulsi Gabbard 36 --------13.85 Kirsten Gillibrand ------------------------------------------------14 ----------5.38 Kamala Harris 32 --------12.31 John Hickenlooper ------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.54 Jay Inslee 6 ----------2.31 Amy Klobuchar -----------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.54 Beto O’Rourke 5 ----------1.92 Tim Ryan 6 ----------2.31 Bernie Sanders ---------------------------------------------------21 ----------8.08 Elizabeth Warren -------------------------------------------------40 --------15.38 Marianne Williamson -------------------------------------------14 ----------5.38 Andrew Yang 27 --------10.38 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 11 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 TOTAL WORSE THAN EXPECTED (N=260) n % Michael Bennet -----------------------------------------------------9 ----------3.46 Joe Biden 70 --------26.92 Cory Booker 5 ----------1.92 Steve Bullock 3 ----------1.15 Pete Buttigieg 6 ----------2.31 Julian Castro 8 ----------3.08 Bill de Blasio 13 ----------5.00 John Delaney 12 ----------4.62 Tulsi Gabbard 11 ----------4.23 Kirsten Gillibrand ------------------------------------------------10 ----------3.85 Kamala Harris 50 --------19.23 John Hickenlooper ------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.54 Jay Inslee 4 ----------1.54 Amy Klobuchar -----------------------------------------------------4 ----------1.54 Beto O’Rourke 8 ----------3.08 Tim Ryan 4 ----------1.54 Bernie Sanders -----------------------------------------------------9 ----------3.46 Elizabeth Warren -------------------------------------------------13 ----------5.00 Marianne Williamson -------------------------------------------10 ----------3.85 Andrew Yang 1 ----------0.38 26. The Democratic National Committee has established donor and poll percentage thresholds for candidates in order to qualify for the televised debates. If a candidate doesn’t qualify for the next round of TV debates in September, do you think he or she should drop out? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 27. 311 --------62.20 152 --------30.40 36 ----------7.20 1 ----------0.20 Of the following two statements which comes closer to your view: (ROTATE 27.1 & 27.2) (N=500) n % The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who can defeat Donald Trump--------------------------------------------------------------290 -----------------------------------------------------------------58.00 OR The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who reflects my priorities and values. ------------------------------------------------------178 -----------------------------------------------------------------35.60 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------------------30-------------------------------------------------------------------6.00 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------2 --------------------------------------------------------------------0.40 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 12 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe 28. August 2019 How would you describe your own political viewpoint – very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative? {ROTATE .1-.5 ASCENDING TO DESCENDING} (N=500) n % Very liberal 95 --------19.00 Liberal 131 --------26.20 Moderate 201 --------40.20 Conservative 37 ----------7.40 Very Conservative -------------------------------------------------15 ----------3.00 Other 10 ----------2.00 Don’t know 11 ----------2.20
 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 13 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe 29. August 2019 Do you think the Democratic Party is too far left, center, or too far right, compared to your own political viewpoint? (N=500) n % Too far left Center Too far right Don’t know 30. 188 --------37.60 163 --------32.60 54 --------10.80 95 --------19.00 In the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Primary, did you vote for Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or did you not vote in that Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Bernie Sanders 236 --------47.20 Hillary Clinton 151 --------30.20 Did not vote in Democratic Primary ---------------------------91 --------18.20 Other (Specify) 3 ----------0.60 Don’t know 12 ----------2.40 Refused 7 ----------1.40 These final questions will help us classify your answers with others taking the survey. 31. Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union? (N=500) Yes No Undecided 32. % 83 --------16.60 414 --------82.80 3 ----------0.60 Are any members of your household part of the LGBTQ community? (N=500) n Yes No Undecided Refused 33. n % 88 --------17.60 408 --------81.60 2 ----------0.40 2 ----------0.40 What is the highest level of education you have completed? (N=500) n % Some high school -------------------------------------------------12 ----------2.40 High school graduate ---------------------------------------------62 --------12.40 Some college 102 --------20.40 Trade/technical/vocational training ----------------------------18 ----------3.60 College graduate -------------------------------------------------171 --------34.20 Masters or PhD 132 --------26.40 Undecided 1 ----------0.20 Refused 2 ----------0.40 34. What is your annual household income? (N=500) n % Under $20,000 per year -----------------------------------------25 ----------5.00 Under $50,000 per year -----------------------------------------81 --------16.20 Under $75,000 per year -----------------------------------------76 --------15.20 Under $100,000 per year ----------------------------------------90 --------18.00 Under $140,000 per year ----------------------------------------71 --------14.20 $140,000 per year or more --------------------------------------94 --------18.80 Undecided 20 ----------4.00 NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 14 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4 SUPRC/Boston Globe August 2019 Refused NH Democratic Presidential Primary Voters 43 ----------8.60 15 of 15 Field 8/1 – 8/4