UNCL ASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTJGATION INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN FBI Phoenix Field Office lllliiillill (U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and F ringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very Likely Motivate Some Domestic Extremists to Commit Criminal, Sometimes Violent Activity (U) LAW ENF'ORCEMENT SENSITIVE: The information marked (U//LES) in this document is the prope1ty of the Federal Bureau ofTnvestigation and may be distributed within the federal government (and its contractors), U.S. intelligence, law enforcement, public safety or protection officials, and individuals with a need to know. Distribution beyond these entities without FBI authorization is prohibited. Precautions should be taken to ensure this information is stored and/or destroyed in a manner that precludes unauthorized access. Information bearing the LES caveat may not be used in legal proceedings without first receiving authorization from the originating agency. Recipients are prohibited from subsequently posting the information marked LES on a website on an unclassified network without first obtaining FBI approval. (U) Domestic extremists employ a number of indicators, some of which may be criminal and others which may constitute the exercise of rights guaranteed by the First Amendment of the US Constitution. The FBI is prohibited from engaging in investigative activity for the sole purpose of monitoring the exercise of constitutional rights. (U//FOUO) T he FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories 3 ' b very likelyc motivate some domestic extrem ists, wholly or in part, to commit criminal and sometimes violent activity. The FBI further assesses in some cases these conspi racy theories very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, p laces, and organizations, thereby increasing the 1ikel ihood of violence against these targets. These assessments are made with high confidence, d based on information from other law enforcement agencies, open source information, comt documents, human sources with varying degrees of access and corroboration, and FBI investigations. (U//FOUO) One key assumption driving these assessments is that certain conspiracy theory narratives tacitly suppo1t or legitimize violent action. The FBI also assumes some, but not all individuals or domestic extremists who hold such beliefs will act on them. The FBI assesses these conspiracy theories very likely will emerge, spread, and evolve in the modem information marketplace, occasionally driving both groups and individual extremists to carry out criminal or violent acts. Indicators that may lead to revised judgements or cause a change in the confidence level associated with this assessment include a lack of conspiracy theory-driven criminal or violent activity in the near to long term or significant efforts by major social media companies and websites to remove, regu late, or counter potentially harmful conspiratorial content. • (U) See Appendix A: Defining Conspiracy Theories. b (U) For an explanation of these terms and a description of all conspiracy theories referenced in this intelligence bulletin, see Appendix B: Prominent Anti-Government, Identity Rased, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories. < (U) See Appendix C: Expressions of Likelihood. d (U) See Appendix D: Confidence in Assessments and Judgments Based on a Body of Information. UNCL ASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE FY 19 lntelligence Bulletin Templale Effective 10-1 -2018 UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OfflCIAL USE ONLY (U) Source Summary Statement (U//FOUO) This intelligence bulletin draws upon a wide body ofreporting derived from other law enforcement agencies, open source information, documentary sources, human source reporting with varying degrees of access, and FBI investigations from 15 January 2008 to 30 January 20 19. Reporting from other law enforcement agencies and open source information was deemed the most critical in supporting the key analytic judgements in this paper. News articles provided contextual details of various incidents and background on specific conspiracy theories not contained in law enforcement reporting, while academic publications aided in clearly defining the topi c, limiting the scope of the paper, and developing the key analytic judgments. Documentary sources consisting of plea agreements, a Court of Appeals Opinion, a criminal complaint, and an indictment provided additional details concerning the incidents discussed, including the charges brought against the perpetrators and, in some cases, the conspiracy theory-based motives of their actions. The use of reporting derived from human sources and FBI investigations was limited, although these sources did provide intelligence that corroborated open source information. Human sources included an established human source with indirect access, much of whose repo11ing since 2014 has been corroborated, a I iaison source with indirect access, a limited history of reporting, and extensive knowledge of domestic extremist groups throughout the United States, and a member of the public with indirect access, reporting for the first time, and whose reliability cannot be determined. The intelligence encompassed withi n this intelligence bulletin was collected between 1 November 20 13 and 30 January 2019 and is current as of31 January 2019. (U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very Likely Motivate Some Domestic Extremists to Commit Criminal or Violent Activity (U//LES) The FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories very likely motivate some domestic extremists, wholly or in part, to engage in criminal or violent activity. This assessment is based on events in which individuals committed crimes, plotted attacks, or successfully carried out deadly violence and who-either before or after their arrests- attributed their actions to their conspiratorial beliefs. These events include instances in which the perpetrators intended to kill groups identified by such theories as hosti le and malevolent, or to simply carry out dangerous, unlawful acts in an effort to draw attention to or expose a perceived conspiracy. (U// LES) On 19 December 2018, a California man was arrested after being found in possession of bomb making materials with the intent to construct an explosive device, according to information obtained from a law enforcement agency. 1 According to information obtained from a separate law enforcement agency, the individual stated he planned to travel to Springfield, Illinois and blow up a satanic temple monument at the Tllinois Capitol rotunda in order to "make Americans aware of 'Pizzagate' and the New World Order (NWO), who were dismantling society." 2 (U//FOUO) On 27 October 2018, an identified individual killed 11 people and injured several others at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, according to a criminal complaint filed in US District Court. 3 According to a copy of his social media postings obtained via open source, shortly before the attack the individual reposted a cartoon depicting the Zionist Occupation Government conspiracy theory and stated that UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE 2 FY19 lntelligence Bulletin UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society "likes to bring invaders in that kill our people. I can't sit by and watch my people get slaughtered. Screw your optics, I'm going in." 4 • (U//FOUO) On 15 June 2018, a Nevada man used an armored truck to block traffic on the Hoover Dam Bypass Bridge, held up signs conveying a political demand, then fled into Arizona where he was arrested by Arizona Department of Public Safety, who found body armor, rifles, ammunition, and a flash-bang device inside his vehicle, according to law enforcement information. 5 According to a technical source with direct access, the man referenced the QAnon conspiracy theory directly and discussed related conspiratorial beliefs after his arrest. 6 According to an online news source deemed reliable, he sent letters from jail containing a distinctive QAnon slogan to President Trump and other officials claiming he wanted to expose government corruption and lies. 7 (U) On 27 October 2016, two men were arrested in Georgia on drug charges and found to be stockpiling weapons, ammunition, and other tactical gear in preparation to attack the government-funded research facility in Alaska known as the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), according to information obtained from another law enforcement agency. 8 According to subject interviews by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), the men became upset after watching videos online about the imposition of martial law and other government conspiracies. 9 · 10 One of the men, who claimed the government was using HAARP to control the weather and prevent humans from talking to God, also made references to the United Nations (UN) invading America and sacrifices occurring at a New World Order church, according to the same source. 11 • (U//FOUO) On 1 November 2013, an identified individual shot and killed one Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officer and wounded several others at Los Angeles International Airport, according to an FBI investigation. 12 Before the attack, the individual wrote a letter expressing his desire to kill TSA personnel, who he associated with the New World Order, according to a plea agreement filed in US District Court. 13 (U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very Likely Encourage the Targeting of Specific People, Places, aud Orgauizatious (U//LES) The FBI assesses in some cases anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, places, and organizations, thereby increasing the risk of extremist violence against such targets. This assessment is based on several incidents where individuals threatened, assaulted, or plotted to attack entities they perceived as being linked to or involved with an alleged conspiracy. This targeting occurs when promoters of conspiracy theories, claiming to act as "researchers" or "investigators", single out people, businesses, or groups which they falsely accuse of being involved in the imagined scheme. These targets are then subjected to harassment campaigns and threats by supporters of the theory, and become vulnerable to violence or other dangerous acts. • (U//LES) On 29 May 2018, the leader of an unofficial, local veterans aid group claimed to have discovered a child sex trafficking camp on privately owned land in Tucson, Arizona, according to two news sources of unknown reliability. 14 • 15 After local law UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE 3 FYl 9 Intelligence Bulletin UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE enforcement investigations discredited the claim, the leader repeatedly alleged a law enforcement cover up and referenced the QAnon conspiracy theory as he and armed group members searched for additional camps, according to multiple sources with varying degrees of access. 16 • 17 • 18 • 19• 20 In addition, the leader and his supporters accused specific residents, businesses, and local officials of aiding or participating in child sex trafficking, according to two sources with indirect access. 21 • 22 • 23 The group also harassed, threatened, and o not plan to use O>ther: • (U/ / FOUO) How does this product add value to your mission? 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