August 16, 2019 Manitoba Race Tightens as Early Election Called Surge among 35-49 year-olds vaults NDP into Statistical Tie with PCs Despite leading in polls since their election in 2016, Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives have fallen into a dead heat with Wab Kinew’s NDP right at the beginning of the 2019 provincial election. The PCs’ slumping fortunes combined with polarized views about the early election call have now turned the Manitoba election into a surprisingly competitive contest. Converso Research surveyed 1,127 Manitobans between July 28 and August 7 and found that the election is now an even race between the PCs and NDP among decided voters. Buoyed by a surge among 35-49 year-olds, the NDP is now in a statistical tie with 30% of decided support to 31% for the PCs. The Manitoba Liberals trail at 11%, the Green Party at 6%, and 15% of the electorate undecided. Beneath the surface of typical polling numbers, what stands out is an unusually high and polarized view about this election being a time to elect a new government among decided voters, with PC supporters strongly disagreeing but NDP, Liberal, and Green supporters very strongly agreeing. 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co Beneath the surface of whether or not the early election call could harm Pallister’s prospects of re-election, there is significant polarization among decided supporters: almost half of PC supporters don’t care at all but a significant number are of two minds or care strongly about it, while NDP, Liberal, and Green supporters feel extremely strongly about it. 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co The Pallister PCs outflank the other parties in other key measures that can translate into election day turnout: the PCs significantly outperformed the other parties in living up to the expectations of its 2016 voters, which has kept a very high number of them as decided PC voters this time around. 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co Comparatively, the other parties have not measured as well as the PCs in terms of living up to the expectations of their 2016 voters, retaining their 2016 supporters, and overall ratings by their own supporters. Crucially, the NDP do not appear to be resonating strongly among Liberals, which could predict the prospects of winning over strategic votes on election day. 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co Age-wise, the NDP’s surge Is fuelled by decided voters in the 35-49 year-old age bracket, with the PCs enjoying a significant lead among voters over 50. There is little difference among gender. The Full Report will be released on Monday, August 19, 2019. A sample this size generally has a 3% margin of error 19 times out of 20, and was weighted in line with Statistics Canada’s 2016 census data for the populations sampled. Converso Research is operated by Converso Engagement Services, one of Canada’s leading public engagement since 2016. The Manitoba election IVR is its inaugural public opinion research survey. 2 Bloor St W, Ste 700, Toronto, ON. M4W3E2 110, 10025 106 Street, Edmonton, AB T5J 1G4 1-888-982-9495 info@converso.co