PROTECT PRESERVE PRODUCE

IT-LE HOUSING . TIHE OBAMA CENTER

 

 

Nathalie P. Voorhees Center
for Neighborhood and

Community Improvement August 2019

Contents
• Introduction 1
• Key Findings 2
• Current Residents 3
• Protect 4
• Preserve 11
• Produce 15
The Nathalie P. Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement is a dynamic resource center that
engages residents, leaders, and policymakers seeking effective strategies for advancing community livability and vitality.
Since its founding in 1978, the center has worked collaboratively with a diverse set of partners to provide technical
assistance, conduct research, and generate new knowledge in comprehensive community development and neighborhood
quality-of-life issues. Grounded in the idea that all individuals have a right to such amenities as quality housing, education,
jobs, transportation and safety to lead decent and productive lives, the Center strives to empower community residents
and stakeholders and provides them with tools to pursue equitable futures. While rooted in Chicago, the center’s
community-driven and interdisciplinary approach has connected it with communities across the region, nation, and abroad.
The Voorhees Center is a unit of the College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

 Introduction
When the Obama Presidential Center (OPC) site selection was
announced, a group of concerned residents and organizations
came together to discuss their hopes and fears of what such a
significant development might bring to the surrounding
community. A coalition was formed to discuss a Community
Benefits Agreement (CBA).
This report was produced by the Nathalie P. Voorhees Center for
Neighborhood and Community Improvement (Voorhees Center)
at University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC), which has worked with
several of the Obama CBA Coalition members on other research
projects over the years. The Voorhees Center was asked to help
the coalition in thinking through OPC housing related issues. This
included facilitating discussion at a town hall meeting on housing
strategies to prevent displacement and offset negative effects of
investment coming quickly into an area that for decades had
experienced disinvestment and uneven development. The
Voorhees Center also participated in meetings of the CBA housing
committee as it drafted its initial ordinance in 2018. Finally, the
center assisted the committee with data to examine need in
relation to different strategies as it moved forward its ordinance,
which was introduced in City Council on July 24, 2019.

Community Areas
Greater Grand Crossing
Hyde Park
South Shore
Washington Park
Woodlawn

2 miles

The data presented in this report aims to help better understand
the housing landscape in a two-mile area surrounding the
proposed site for the OPC.1 We focused on documenting the
current housing situation to consider strategies to promote
development without displacement. The data are organized by
three types of action – protect, preserve, produce – that can
potentially assure lower-income households can afford to live in
the area.
1 Market studies typically use a 1-3 mile radius.

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

1

 Key Findings
The area within a two-mile radius of the Obama Center site is
economically mixed, though predominantly low-income.
Income Distribution 2013-2017

Prices of for-sale housing are also rising, and at a faster
rate than the city since 2016.

24%
33%

< $20,000
$20,000-34,999
$35,000-49,999
15%

While rents vary, there is clear evidence of rising rents in
newly renovated and new construction units, which the
majority of current renters cannot afford.

$50,000-74,999
$75,000
12%

17%

The area is predominantly renters (69%).
The largest portion of renters (42%) have incomes below
$20,000; 91% cannot afford their monthly rent (i.e., they pay
more than 30% of income for rent).
In contrast, the largest portion of owners (49%) have incomes
above $75,000; 90% can afford their monthly housing cost
(i.e., they pay no more than 30% of income for mortgage +
taxes).

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

Eviction rates are some of the highest in the city with
South Shore being the highest, averaging 1,800 a year,
which is about 9% of renters.
Voucher holders have been able to live in the area
because they have a rental subsidy, though this may
become more difficult if rents rise above the Fair Market
Rent set by HUD. This may be the case now given how
many renters with income below $20,000, who are likely
to have vouchers, are paying more than 30% for rent.
There is an estimated 214 acres of vacant parcels that
are zoned for residential development, with most zoned
for either low-density single family and 2 flats or high
density multifamily buildings.
The amount of publicly owned vacant property presents
opportunities for new mixed-income and affordable
housing, both rental and for-sale.

2

 Current Residents
RENTERS (54,100 households)

OWNERS (24,400 households)

• The largest portion of renters have an annual
income of less than $20,000 (42%).

• The largest portion of owners have an annual
income of more than $75,000 (49%).

• Using HUD classifications, about 70% of renters
are very low-income (earning less than
$45,000/year for a family of 4 in 2017).

• Using HUD classifications, about 50% of owners
are low-income (earning less than $71,000/year
for a family of 4 in 2017).

• Regardless of income, 6 out of 10 renter
households cannot afford their monthly rent.

• Regardless of income, 3 out of 10 owner
households cannot afford their monthly housing
payments (mortgage+taxes).

Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2013-2017
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2013-2017

3

 Most renters and many owners are lowincome, and many are paying more than
they can afford for their monthly housing
costs (more than 30% of income). (Table 1)

PROTECT

vulnerable
renters
and
owners

Investment in rental property over the
past few years has resulted in higher
rents that are not affordable to current
tenants. (Table 2)

Eviction rates overall are higher than the
city average. (Table 3)

Rising home values may affect current
owners ability to pay taxes. (Table 4)

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

4

 Table 1. Housing Cost Burdened Households by income level and tenure *
Income Levels
Owner-occupied units
Renter-occupied units
Affordable housing cost per
month
Owners that are housing cost
burdened (%)
Number
Renters that are housing cost
burdened (%)
Number
Total Number Households
that are housing cost
burdened

$20,000< $19,999 $34,999
2,758
2,555
22,898
10,542
Between
No more $501 and
$875
than $500

$35,000$49,999
2,646
6,880
Between
$876 and
$1,250

$50,000$74,999
4,382
7,100
Between
$1,251 and
$1,875

> $75,000
12,063
6,644

All Income Levels
24,404
54,064

More than
$1,876

78,468

91%

71%

50%

35%

10%

34%

2,501

1,804

1,323

1,521

1,168

8,317

89%

83%

40%

17%

2%

61%

20,336

8,770

2,768

1220

146

33,240

22,837

10,574

4,091

2,741

1,314

41,557

Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2013-2017

* Note that the table above does not include 598 owner-households and 3,942 renter- households that have zero or negative income, and 1,394 renters that
have no cash rent. With these households, there are 59,400 renter households and 25,002 owner households.

Based on current housing costs, most renters earning less than $35,000 and most owners earning less than
$50,000 are housing cost burdened (i.e. paying more than 30% of income for rent or their mortgage+taxes),
and may not be able to afford additional increases to their housing costs.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 2a. Representative Sample of Advertised Rents 60615

Source: Zillow (retrieved postings 8-4/5-19)

Total Listings in 60615
4+ Bedroom = 47 Listings
3 Bedroom = 85 Listings
2 Bedroom = 48 Listings

The rents listed in this zip code are generally higher than the other two
zip codes (see Tables 2b-c), are higher for renovated units than older
stock (not recently renovated) and higher than what most current renters
in the area can afford.

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

6

 Table 2b. Representative Sample of Advertised Rents 60637

Source: Zillow (retrieved postings 8-4/5-19)
Total Listings in 60637
4+ Bedroom = 41 Listings
3 Bedroom = 136 Listings
2 Bedroom = 66 Listings

The rents listed in this zip code are a mix of high (new construction) and
low (old, unrenovated stock) compared to the other two zip codes (see
Tables 2a&2c) and higher than what most current renters in the area can
afford.

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

7

 Table 2c. Representative Sample of Advertised Rents 60649

Source: Zillow (retrieved postings 8-4/5-19)
Total Listings in 60649
4+ Bedroom = 19 Listings
3 Bedroom = 133 Listings
2 Bedroom = 125 Listings

This zip code has more older stock (not recently renovated) and rents
that are generally lower compared to the other two zip codes (see Tables
2a-b) and relatively more affordable to most current renters in the area.

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 3. Evictions from 2010-17
Hyde Park

Greater Grand
Crossing

South
Shore

Washington
Park

Woodlawn

Annual average

331

689

1,833

351

480

Percent of total
renters

4%

8%

9%

9%

6%

↓ 23%

↑ 2%

↓ 0.1%

↓ 3%

↑ 7%

31

4

1

23

12

- 6%

+ 92%

+ 125%

+ 127%

+54%

Change 20102017
Rank
(1=highest)
Percentage
higher than city

Source: Lawyers Committee for Better Housing https://eviction.lcbh.org/

The number and rate of evictions vary in the area, with the highest in South Shore and lowest in Hyde
Park in terms of average per year and proportion of the renters. With the exception of Hyde Park, the
eviction rates in the other community areas are well above the city.

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 4. Home Values
The data suggests that the
home values in the area
around the Obama Center:
1) are lower than the city
median,
2) generally have followed the
City rate of change prior to
and immediately following
the recession, and
3) are increasing at a faster
rate than the city median
since 2016.
Based on these data, even
though the Obama Center
construction has not started,
real estate interest and
investment has already begun
to take the area into new
direction.
Zillow did not have
information for 60649 area.
Source: Zillow.com accessed August 4/5, 2019. June values for each year were used to control for seasonality effects.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Based on expiring federal subsidy
contracts, there is potential to lose
nearly 500 subsidized units by 2023
and 2,000 more by 2040. (Table 5)

PRESERVE
existing
affordable
housing

3,100 extremely low-income
households rely on Housing Choice
Vouchers to live in the community; this
includes seniors, single-parent families
and people with disabilities. (Table 6)

Evidence suggests that landlords are
charging higher rents to new tenants
compared to longer term tenants; while
this might improve housing quality, it
may also push lower income tenants
out. (Table 7)
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 5. Subsidized Housing
in Woodlawn

Source: Getting Ahead of Gentrification, 2018

As noted in the report Getting Ahead
of Gentrification (2018), while there
are many subsidized units in the area
(and most in Woodlawn), many have
the potential to be “lost” if their rental
assistance contract is not renewed.
This is generally more of a concern in
family and mixed developments since
there are certain protections for
developments for seniors and people
with disabilities. While the risk
increases over time, there is potential
in the next five years to lose several
hundred units if owners choose to
“opt-out” of their contracts.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 6. Voucher Holder Households
Income Level
Census Tracts in 2-miles-Buffer
Total Households
Percentage

$1 - $4,999
762
19.6%

$5,000 - $9,999

$10,000 $14,999

1314
33.8%

$15,000 $19,999

667
17.2%

458
11.8%

$20,000 or
more
695
17.9%

very low
income
3727
96.0%

extremely low
income

Total

3144
81.0%

3883
100.0%

Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2017 Picture of Subsidized Households

Household Characteristics

Census Tracts in 2-miles-Buffer
Total Households
Percentage

2+ adults with
children

39
1.0%

1 adult with
children

Female head

1651
42.5%

Female head
with children

3068
79.0%

1597
41.1%

With disability, With disability,
among Head,
among Head,
With disability,
Spouse, Co-head, Spouse, Co-head,
among all
aged 61 years or aged 62 years or
persons in
less
older
households

817
21.0%

1868
48.1%

Total

625
16.1%

3883
100.0%

Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2017 Picture of Subsidized Households

Nearly all voucher holders in the area (97%) are African American and most are extremely low income (81% with
income below $20,000) and with a female head of household. Nearly half are seniors with a disability. The
average time in their current unit is 111 months (9.25 years).
The Fair Market Rent (FMR) set by HUD in 2017 was $1,232 for a two-bedroom unit. It was $1,004 in 2008, when
many of these households moved into their unit. At $20,000 a year income, an affordable rent would be $500 a
month. Clearly, having a voucher has allowed many renters to stay in the area as rents rise. However, if rents go
above the FMR, while tenants can remain in the unit, they will have to make up the difference.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Table 7. Current rent charged by year moved into unit, 2017
Median Gross Rent ($)
Census Tract 3814
Census Tract 4106
Census Tract 4206
Census Tract 4301.02

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Moved in 2015
or Later
$
1,333
$
1,304
$
918
$
1,065

Moved in 2000
to 2009
For All Renters
$
925
$
861
$
1,045
$
1,084
790
$
887 $ $
719
$
708 $ $
Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2013-2017

The data in the table shows median
rents charged based on US Census
data for a sample of different census
tracts. If we just looked at the
median rent for all renters (right
column), we would not know that
rents vary depending on when a
tenant moved in and are higher for
newer tenants.
What each example shows is that
higher rents are being charged to
new people moving in 2015 or later,
while rents are lower for people who
moved in between 2000 and 2009.

Tract 3814 (1)

Tract 4206 (3)
Proposed
Obama Center

Tract 4106 (2)

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

Tract 4301.02 (4)

14

 62% of vacant land in the area is zoned
residential (single family and multifamily),
presenting approximately 214 acres of
land in the 2 mile radius. (Figure1)

PRODUCE
new
affordable
housing
options

UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

The City of Chicago owns/controls
several hundred parcels in the
Woodlawn area, including lots zoned
for single family and multifamily
housing. (Figure 2)

The Cook County Land Bank owns
several hundred vacant properties in
the area that can be used to develop
new mixed income and permanent
affordable rental and for-sale housing.
(Figure 3)
15

 Figure 1. Vacant Parcels by Zoning
Only
Residential

Category
Total Radius Acres
Residential Zoning
Multi Unit (RM-5)
Two Flat, Multi Unit, Townhouse
(RT-4)
Single Unit (RS-3)
Single Unit (RS-2)
Two Flat, Multi Unit, Townhouse
(RT-3.5)
Multi Unit (RM-6)
Single Unit (RS-1)
All Other Zoning Districts
All Business Zoning
All Manufacturing Zoning
All Planned Developments
All Commercial Zoning
All Open Space

Acres Percentage
345
100%
214
62%
96
28%
53
50
9

15%
14%
3%

4
2
1
131
44
35
32
20
0

1%
0%
0%
38%
13%
10%
9%
6%
0%

The majority of vacant land is zoned residential presenting opportunity for new development of single-family homes (RS-3; 50 acres),
two-flats and townhouses (RT-4; 53 acres) and higher density multifamily (RM-5; 96 acres). Given the amount of land zoned for high
density development and current high rents charged in newly constructed apartment buildings in the area, there is good reason to
believe that future development will continue this trend, especially on lots closest to the Obama Center.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Figure 2. Vacant Parcels by Ownership in Woodlawn

Source: WBEZ Public Radio

Source: WBEZ
Public Radio

Theses maps show ownership of vacant parcels and zoning of publicly owned vacant parcels within a mile of the OPC
site, which could be included in the proposed ARO pilot to assure affordable units are included in new development.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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 Figure 3. Cook County Landbank

Source: Cook County Land Bank http://www.cookcountylandbank.org/ Accessed August 9, 2019

This map shows properties in the Cook County Land Bank that could be used to produce mixed-income
and permanently affordable housing options in the area.
UIC Nathalie P Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement

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Nathalie P. Voorhees Center
for Neighborhood and

Community Improvement August 2019