POLL Press Contact Information Mlleah Kromer Director, Sarah Hughes Field Center Tara de Soum Director, Med la Relations, Goucher College Gaucher College Pull Rernla: Fewer than lmlfanmyInndeIs think note is going in the right direction but maintain pastrive economic outlaak; most residents suppart increased funding to public education, unaware a/lrirwan Commission; Gan Hagan remains pnpulnr BALTIMORE (September 23, 2019)7The Goucher College Poll asked Maryland residents their views on various statewide issues, including the direction ot'and most important issue facing the state and the cunenl and future economic sttuatton tn Maryland Residents were also asked about Gov Larry Hogan, state spending, the Klrwan and their willingness to fund improvements in public education, roads and highways, and public transportation The Goucher College Poll surveyed 763 Maryland adults from September 13.13 and has a margin ofenor of was percent Pcrumiolts of Mauland and Gov. Hogan Optnion toward the direction ofthe state, although more positive than negattve, has fallen to its lowest point since Gov l-logan took office in January 2015, 46 percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 35 percent say Maryland is oft'on the wrong track At this time last year, 54 percent said Maryland was heading in the right direction Seventeen percent ofMarylanders identity an economic lssueijobs, taxes, or economic growlend 13 percent education as the most important issues factng Maryland today Another 12 percent say crtme or Justice tssues are the most important The majortty ofMarylanders--M) percentihold a mostly positive view ofthe Maryland economy, while 29 percent hold a mostly negative view When asked to look ahead to the next Goucher College Poll Page 2 year, 21 percent think the Maryland economy will get better, 22 percent think it will get worse, and 53 percent think it will stay about the same. Gov. Hogan remains in good standing among a majority of Marylanders. Sixty-four percent of Marylanders approve of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor, 14 percent disapprove, and 21 percent say they don’t know. For historical context, his approval ratings have not registered below 60 percent since October 2015. Spending, funding, and the Kirwan Commission Respondents were asked whether the state government spends too little, about the right amount, or too much on public education, public transportation, and roads and highways. Public education: Too little: 70 percent Right amount: 19 percent Too much: 6 percent Public transportation: Too little: 43 percent Right amount: 36 percent Too much: 8 percent Roads and highways: Too little: 54 percent Right amount: 34 percent Too much: 8 percent Residents were also asked whether they support or oppose personally paying more in state taxes to improve each of the following in Maryland. • • • 74 percent support personally paying more in taxes to improve public education, 26 percent oppose. 51 percent support personally paying more in taxes to improve public transportation, 46 percent oppose. 52 percent support personally paying more in taxes to improve roads and highways, 45 percent oppose. While majorities of Marylanders think that the state spends too little on public education and express a willingness to personally pay more in state taxes to improve public education, a large majority—77 percent—have heard or read nothing about the Kirwan Commission. Twenty-two percent have heard or read a little, some, or a lot about Kirwan; 68 percent of those respondents correctly identified the goal of the commission was to “improve public education” and 15 percent thought the goal was to “improve public transportation.” Goucher College Poll Page 3 The Kirwan Commission, or the Commission on Innovation and Excellence in Education, is named for the chair of the commission, William “Brit” Kirwan, chancellor emeritus of the University System of Maryland. The goal of the Kirwan Commission is to research and develop major funding and policy reforms to improve the quality of Maryland’s public education system. About the Goucher College Poll The Goucher College Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. The center is directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, associate professor of political science. The Goucher College Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The mission of the Goucher College Poll is to improve public discourse in Maryland by providing neutral, unbiased, and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by the poll are used to support faculty and student research. The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information, or to view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll. Survey Methodology To ensure all Maryland residents are represented, the poll is conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) of a county-level stratified random sample using landline and cellular telephone numbers. The sample of telephone numbers for the survey is purchased from Dynata (https://www.dynata.com/). The survey was conducted Friday, September 13, to Wednesday, September 18. During this time, interviews were conducted 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Monday to Friday and noon to 9 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. The Goucher College Poll uses Voxco Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) software to administer its surveys. Interviews are conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid, student interviewers. Goucher College Poll Page 4 Interviewers attempted to reach respondents with working phone numbers a maximum of five times. Only Maryland adults—residents aged 18 years or older—were eligible to participate. Interviews were not conducted with adults who were reached at business or work numbers. Eighty percent of the interviews were conducted on a cell phone and 20 percent were conducted on a landline. Interviews for this survey were completed with 763 Maryland adults. For a sample size of 763, there is a 95 percent probability the survey results have a plus or minus 3.6 percentage point sampling error from the actual population distribution for any given survey question. Margins of error are higher for subsamples. In addition to sampling error, all surveys are subject to sources of non-sampling error, including question wording effects, question order effects, and non-response bias. Margin of error is not adjusted for design effects. Data is weighted by gender, age, race, region, and educational attainment of the state to represent adult population targets established by the most recent American Community Survey (ACS). Survey Question Design The Goucher College Poll provides the questions as worded and the order in which they are administered to respondents. BRACKETED ITEMS [ ]: Items and statements in brackets are rotated to ensure respondents do not receive a set order of response options, which maintains question construction integrity by avoiding respondent agreement based on question composition. Example: [agree or disagree] or [disagree or agree] PROBE (p): Some questions contain a “probe” maneuver to determine a respondent’s intensity of opinion/perspective. Probe techniques used in this questionnaire mainly consist of asking respondents if their responses are more intense than initially provided. Example: Do you have a [favorable or unfavorable] opinion of President Obama? PROBE: Would you say very favorable/unfavorable? OPEN-ENDED: No response options are provided for an open-ended question, i.e., it is entirely up to the respondent to provide the response information. Any response options provided to the interviewer are not read to the respondent; they are only used to help reduce interviewer error and time in coding the response. VOLUNTEER (v): Volunteer responses means the interviewer did not offer that response option in the question as read to the interviewer. Interviewers are instructed not to offer “don’t know” or “refused” or “some other opinion” to the respondent, but the respondent is free to volunteer that information for the interviewer to record. Goucher College Poll Page 5 Goucher College Poll Sample Demographics (in percent) Weighted Weighted Maryland Sample Sample Adult Estimate Estimate Population Adults Registered Parameter Voters (n=763) (n=655) Gender Male Female 47 53 47 53 46 54 18 to 24 12 12 9 25 to 34 18 18 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+ 16 18 17 19 16 18 17 19 17 16 White Black 61 30 61 30 63 30 All other 9 9 7 35 26 21 18 35 26 21 18 31 28 22 19 Montgomery County Prince George’s County Baltimore City Baltimore County 17 15 11 14 17 15 11 14 17 15 11 14 Central Region Southern Region Eastern Shore Region Western Region 21 6 8 8 21 6 8 8 22 6 8 7 Age 19 19 20 Race Education High school or less Tech/AA/some college Four-year college degree Adv./professional degree Region Goucher College Poll Page 6 Counties included in region: • Central: Anne Arundel, Carroll, Harford, and Howard • Western: Allegany, Garrett, Frederick, and Washington • Eastern Shore: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester • Southern: Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s Registered Voters Registered voter screen question: Q: REGVOTE Are you registered to vote at your current address? If “Yes,” follow up: Are you registered as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, unaffiliated, or something else? Of the 763 Maryland adult residents surveyed, 655 indicated they were registered voters with the Democratic, Republican, or other party or registered unaffiliated (i.e., independent). Maryland Voter Registration (in percent) Party Registration (Aug 2019) Weighted Sample Estimate Registered Voters (n=655) Democratic Party 54 53 Republican Party 25 26 Unaffiliated (Independent) 19 19 Other Party (Green/Libertarian/Other) 1 2 Voters in MD 655 +/-3.8 Total= 4,018,568 Information on voter registration in Maryland from the Board of Elections can be found at http://www.elections.state.md.us. Goucher College Poll Page 7 Q: IDEO Do you consider yourself to be politically [conservative, moderate, or progressive]? All Registered Adults Voters Conservative 23 23 Moderate 48 49 Progressive 24 25 Don’t know (v) 5 4 763 +/-3.6 655 +/-3.8 Total= Goucher College Poll Page 8 The following question was asked to the full sample of 763 Maryland adults. Please refer to page 13 for the results by registered voter and other key demographics. Results are in percent and may not add up exactly to 100 due to weighting and rounding. Q: IMPISSUE What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today? [OPEN-ENDED] SEPT 19 Education 13 Crime/criminal justice/police 12 Taxes 7 Economy/economic growth/development 7 Job growth/unemployment 3 Drugs/heroin 4 Environmental issues/concerns 7 Guns/gun control 5 Politics and political leaders/leadership 4 Transportation/infrastructure/roads/mass transit 7 Health care 4 Immigration 3 Housing/cost of living 4 Other: 8 Don't Know (v) 12 Total= 763 +/-3.6 Goucher College Poll Page 9 Q: TRACK In general, do you think things in the state [are headed in the right direction or are off on the wrong track]? FEB OCT SEPT SEPT SEPT FEB 15 15 16 17 18 19 SEPT 19 Wrong track 34 33 19 31 30 25 35 Right direction 54 56 65 55 54 59 46 Don’t know/Refused (v) 12 11 17 14 16 16 19 619 +/-3.9 636 +/-3.9 668 +/-3.8 671 +/-3.8 831 +/-3.4 808 +/-3.4 763 +/-3.6 Total= Q: HOGANJOB Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as governor? PROBE OCT SEPT SEPT SEPT FEB SEPT 15 16 17 18 19 19 Strongly disapprove (p) 3 3 6 8 4 5 Disapprove 15 9 10 9 10 9 Approve 42 45 42 36 39 39 Strongly approve (p) 16 25 20 28 30 25 Don’t know (v) 23 17 20 17 14 21 Refused (v) 1 1 1 3 3 2 636 +/-3.9 668 +/-3.8 671 +/-3.8 831 +/-3.4 808 +/-3.4 763 +/-3.6 Total= Goucher College Poll Page 10 Q: SPENDING Next, I’d like to know whether you think the Maryland state government spends [too much, too little, or about the right amount] on each one of the following areas. . . [items rotated] Q: SP_EDUC Q: SP_TRANS Q: SP_ROADS Too Right Too DK/REF Little Amount Much (v) Public education 70 19 6 5 Public transportation 43 36 8 13 Roads and highways 54 34 8 4 Total=763, +/-3.6 Q: KIRWAN1 How much have you heard or read about the Kirwan Commission: [nothing at all, only a little, some, a lot]? SEPT 19 Nothing at all 77 Only a little 14 Some 5 A lot 3 Don’t know (v) 1 Total= 763 +/-3.6 Goucher College Poll Page 11 Only the 162 respondents who indicated they had heard a “little,” “some,” or “a lot” about the Kirwan Commission were asked KIRWAN2. Q: KIRWAN2 From everything you’ve heard or read, what is the goal of the Kirwan commission? Is it [to improve public education OR to improve public transportation] in Maryland? SEPT 19 1 Public education 68 Public transportation 15 Some other response (v) 2 Don’t know (v) 15 Refused (v) >1 162 +/-7.7 Total= Q: MDECON Do you have a [mostly negative or mostly positive] view of the current economic situation in Maryland? SEPT FEB FEB SEPT 17 18 19 19 Mostly negative 33 31 28 29 Mostly positive 57 60 61 60 Don’t know (v) 10 9 11 10 Refused (v) 0 >1 0 1 671 +/-3.8 800 +/-3.5 808 +/-3.4 763 +/-3.6 Total= 1 The correct answer is public education. Goucher College Poll Page 12 Q: MDECON_FUT Thinking ahead, do you expect the Maryland economy to get [better, worse, or stay about the same] over the next year? SEPT 19 Worse 22 Stay about the same 53 Get better 21 Don’t know (v) 3 Refused (v) >1 Total= 763 +/-3.6 Q: FUNDING Okay, now please tell me whether you would [support or oppose] personally paying more in state taxes to improve each of the following in Maryland: PROBE [items rotated] Q: PUBEDUC Q: PUBTRANS Q: ROADS Strongly Strongly DK/REF Oppose Support Oppose Support (v) Public education 12 14 34 40 >1 Public transportation 16 30 34 17 3 Roads and highways 16 29 33 19 3 Total = 763, +/-3.6 Goucher College Poll Page 13 Results by Demographics (in percent) • Column percentages • Unless specified, “don’t know,” “refused,” and other volunteered responses are not included below • Margin of error is higher for subsamples • Refer to tables above for questions as worded Registered Voters Maryland Adults Party Registration Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=655) (n=347) (n=125) (n=172) (n=359) (n=404) (n=232) (n=262) (n=269) (n=465) (n=228) (n=70) Wrong track 34 28 31 45 35 35 34 35 37 39 30 26 Right direction 46 49 50 39 48 44 43 48 46 42 49 59 Disapprove 14 18 10 6 14 14 13 17 13 13 16 13 Approve 66 59 66 81 64 63 46 67 75 66 58 65 Too little 69 74 65 61 63 76 76 76 59 64 84 62 Right amount 20 18 20 22 23 16 19 13 25 21 13 31 Too much 6 3 11 11 8 4 2 6 10 9 1 4 Too little 43 52 42 26 41 45 49 42 40 40 49 44 Right amount 36 32 39 44 39 34 37 35 37 34 38 44 Too much 7 4 6 15 9 6 7 7 9 8 7 6 Too little 54 54 46 56 53 54 54 47 60 52 56 58 Right amount 34 33 37 34 37 31 28 39 34 35 33 31 Too much 8 8 14 5 7 10 11 10 5 7 10 9 Q: TRACK Q: HOGANJOB Q: SP_EDUC Q: SP_TRANS Q: SP_ROADS Goucher College Poll Page 14 Maryland Adults College Region Ideology Outside Urban Corridor (n=168) Cons Mod Prog (n=245) Central/ Balt Metro (n=350) (n=175) (n=367) (n=185) 32 25 42 37 47 31 32 42 52 55 40 44 40 49 47 Disapprove 14 14 17 17 4 6 9 32 Approve 63 65 62 61 72 74 70 43 Too little 71 68 68 73 65 60 68 83 Right amount 19 20 26 14 21 19 22 14 Too much 5 7 3 8 5 14 5 1 Too little 42 46 52 43 33 27 41 65 Right amount 37 36 34 37 39 46 40 23 Too much 8 7 6 9 7 14 7 4 Too little 55 51 59 52 49 52 57 48 Right amount 32 37 30 35 38 40 30 37 Too much 9 7 9 9 7 4 10 10 >4-year degree 4-year degree + MG/ PG (n=466) (n=297) Wrong track 37 Right direction Q: TRACK Q: HOGANJOB Q: SP_EDUC Q: SP_TRANS Q: SP_ROADS Goucher College Poll Page 15 Registered Voters Maryland Adults Party Registration Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=655) (n=347) (n=125) (n=172) (n=359) (n=404) (n=232) (n=262) (n=269) (n=465) (n=228) (n=70) Nothing 75 74 78 77 77 77 89 76 67 77 78 75 Little/some/a lot 22 23 21 22 22 21 11 21 30 22 20 23 Mostly negative 26 29 25 21 21 35 40 24 24 23 38 33 Mostly positive 62 58 61 73 69 53 47 67 66 67 48 55 Worse 20 26 16 10 16 27 26 19 21 16 31 32 Stay the same 55 53 55 57 55 52 44 58 57 58 46 44 Better 22 17 27 29 25 18 25 21 19 22 20 21 Oppose 27 18 21 49 32 20 16 21 37 30 18 18 Support 72 81 78 50 68 80 84 79 61 69 81 82 Oppose 45 37 35 69 45 47 39 51 47 48 45 38 Support 52 59 62 30 51 51 58 47 49 49 52 61 Oppose 45 42 42 53 45 45 43 50 42 48 42 38 Support 52 54 55 44 53 52 54 49 53 49 55 61 Q: KIRWAN1 Q: MDECON Q: MDECON_FUT Q:PUBEDUC Q: PUBTRANS Q: ROADS Goucher College Poll Page 16 Maryland Adults College Region Ideology Outside Urban Corridor (n=168) Cons Mod Prog (n=245) Central/ Balt Metro (n=350) (n=175) (n=367) (n=185) 74 74 75 85 78 74 80 19 24 24 23 15 22 23 18 Mostly negative 34 20 32 28 25 30 26 35 Mostly positive 55 68 58 60 64 64 64 50 Worse 23 19 29 21 12 16 23 26 Stay the same 50 59 53 51 59 51 57 51 Better 23 19 15 25 24 31 19 15 Oppose 25 26 23 25 29 41 22 16 Support 74 73 77 74 70 58 77 84 Oppose 50 39 37 50 51 64 47 26 Support 46 59 62 45 47 33 49 72 Oppose 48 41 39 47 49 51 44 41 Support 49 57 60 49 48 45 54 57 >4-year degree 4-year degree + MG/ PG (n=466) (n=297) Nothing 79 Little/some/a lot Q: KIRWAN1 Q: MDECON Q: MDECON_FUT Q:PUBEDUC Q: PUBTRANS Q: ROADS