POLL Press Contact Information Mlleah Kromer Director. Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Ceiller Tara de Souza Director. Media Relations, Goucher College Gaucher College Poll results: Majority ofMarylanders view the Affordable Care Act favorably and support Medicare-fora"; More than half of residents unsatisfied with state ofAnteh'ean democracy; President Trump unpopular among Marylanders BALTIMORE (September 24. 2019)7The Gollcher College Poll asked Maryland residents about their Vlews toward President Donald Trump's job performance: former President Barack Obama; the Democratic and Republican Parties: the Affordable Care ACI: capitalism and socialism: climate change: and Medlcare-l'or-all. The Gaucher College Poll also asked residents about America's openness to people from all over the world and their satisfaction American democracy. The Goncher College Poll surveyed 763 Maryland adults from September 13-18 and has a margin of error of +1.35 percent. President Donald Trump and the 2021) general election in Mainland Twenty-seven percent of Marylanders approve of the job Trump is doing as president of the United States: 67 percent disapprove. Maryland registered voters who indicated they were paying attention to the campaign for president were asked whether they plan to vote it' the presidential election were held today. . 23 percent say they will definitely or probably vote for the Republican candidate. Trump. . 65 percent say they will definitely or probably vote for the Democratic candidate. Goucher College Poll Page 2 Former President Barack Obama and other key political items Obama remains a popular political figure in Maryland; 73 percent view him favorably and 22 percent view him unfavorably. Eighty-nine percent of Maryland Democrats hold a favorable opinion of Obama. Obama earned a 66 percent approval rating from Marylanders on the September 2016 Goucher College Poll. 1 Sixty-three percent hold a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare; 29 percent hold an unfavorable view. Marylanders were more divided in their views toward the two major political parties and different economic systems: • 47 percent held a favorable view toward the Democratic Party; 39 percent held an unfavorable view. • 33 percent held a favorable view toward the Republican Party; 56 percent held an unfavorable view. • 31 percent held a favorable view toward socialism; 47 percent held an unfavorable view. • 53 percent held a favorable view toward capitalism; 31 percent held an unfavorable view. Climate change and personal impact on the environment Sixty-nine percent of Marylanders believe climate change is caused mostly by human activity, while 23 percent think it is caused mostly by natural patterns in the earth’s environment. These attitudes fell starkly along partisan lines; 76 percent of Democrats believe that climate change is caused mostly by human activity, compared to 44 percent of Republicans. Just one percent of Marylanders do not believe climate change exists. There is widespread agreement concerning the impact that individual lifestyle choices—like recycling or reducing household energy consumption—can have on the overall environment. Ninety-two percent agree that their choices make a difference; 6 percent disagree that they do. Views toward Medicare-for-all Respondents were randomly selected to receive one of two questions about Medicare-for-all. • 59 percent support a “Medicare for all” health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government; 33 percent oppose. • 52 percent support a “Medicare for all” health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government, replacing private insurance plans; 40 percent oppose. For full results, see: https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/documents/Fall-2016-Goucher-Poll-Release-2Final.pdf 1 Goucher College Poll Page 3 Views toward American society and democracy Respondents were asked to consider the impact of America’s openness to people from all over the world. • 71 percent think openness is essential to who we are as a nation. • 24 percent think if we are too open we risk losing our identity as a nation. Compared to data collected by Pew Research Center in July 2019, Marylanders are more likely than all Americans (62 percent) to say that openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation. 2 The majority of Marylanders (56 percent) are unsatisfied with the current state of American democracy; 36 percent are satisfied. Democrats (64 percent) express more dissatisfaction than their Republican counterparts (37 percent). For full results from Pew Research Center, see: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/17/growing-shareof-republicans-say-u-s-risks-losing-its-identity-if-it-is-too-open-to-foreigners/ 2 Goucher College Poll Page 4 About the Goucher College Poll The Goucher College Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. The center is directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, associate professor of political science. The Goucher College Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The mission of the Goucher College Poll is to improve public discourse in Maryland by providing neutral, unbiased, and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by the poll are used to support faculty and student research. The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information, or to view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll. Survey Methodology To ensure all Maryland residents are represented, the poll is conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) of a county-level stratified random sample using landline and cellular telephone numbers. The sample of telephone numbers for the survey is purchased from Dynata (https://www.dynata.com/). The survey was conducted Friday, September 13, to Wednesday, September 18. During this time, interviews were conducted 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Monday to Friday and noon to 9 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. The Goucher College Poll uses Voxco Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) software to administer its surveys. Interviews are conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid, student interviewers. Interviewers attempted to reach respondents with working phone numbers a maximum of five times. Only Maryland adults—residents aged 18 years or older—were eligible to participate. Interviews were not conducted with adults who were reached at business or work numbers. Eighty percent of the interviews were conducted on a cell phone and 20 percent were conducted on a landline. Goucher College Poll Page 5 Interviews for this survey were completed with 763 Maryland adults. For a sample size of 763, there is a 95 percent probability the survey results have a plus or minus 3.6 percentage point sampling error from the actual population distribution for any given survey question. Margins of error are higher for subsamples. In addition to sampling error, all surveys are subject to sources of non-sampling error, including question wording effects, question order effects, and non-response bias. Margin of error is not adjusted for design effects. Data is weighted by gender, age, race, region, and educational attainment of the state to represent adult population targets established by the most recent American Community Survey (ACS). Survey Question Design The Goucher College Poll provides the questions as worded and the order in which they are administered to respondents. BRACKETED ITEMS [ ]: Items and statements in brackets are rotated to ensure respondents do not receive a set order of response options, which maintains question construction integrity by avoiding respondent agreement based on question composition. Example: [agree or disagree] or [disagree or agree] PROBE (p): Some questions contain a “probe” maneuver to determine a respondent’s intensity of opinion/perspective. Probe techniques used in this questionnaire mainly consist of asking respondents if their responses are more intense than initially provided. Example: Do you have a [favorable or unfavorable] opinion of President Obama? PROBE: Would you say very favorable/unfavorable? OPEN-ENDED: No response options are provided for an open-ended question, i.e., it is entirely up to the respondent to provide the response information. Any response options provided to the interviewer are not read to the respondent; they are only used to help reduce interviewer error and time in coding the response. VOLUNTEER (v): Volunteer responses means the interviewer did not offer that response option in the question as read to the interviewer. Interviewers are instructed not to offer “don’t know” or “refused” or “some other opinion” to the respondent, but the respondent is free to volunteer that information for the interviewer to record. Goucher College Poll Page 6 Goucher College Poll Sample Demographics (in percent) Weighted Weighted Maryland Sample Sample Adult Estimate Estimate Population Adults Registered Parameter Voters (n=763) (n=655) Gender Male Female 47 53 47 53 46 54 12 18 16 18 17 19 12 18 16 18 17 19 9 17 16 19 19 20 61 30 9 61 30 9 63 30 7 35 26 21 18 35 26 21 18 31 28 22 19 17 15 11 14 21 6 8 8 17 15 11 14 21 6 8 8 17 15 11 14 22 6 8 7 Age 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+ Race White Black All other Education High school or less Tech/AA/some college Four-year college degree Adv./professional degree Region Montgomery County Prince George’s County Baltimore City Baltimore County Central Region Southern Region Eastern Shore Region Western Region Goucher College Poll Page 7 Counties included in region: • Central: Anne Arundel, Carroll, Harford, and Howard • Western: Allegany, Garrett, Frederick, and Washington • Eastern Shore: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester • Southern: Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s Registered Voters Registered voter screen question: Q: REGVOTE Are you registered to vote at your current address? If “Yes,” follow up: Are you registered as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, unaffiliated, or something else? Of the 763 Maryland adult residents surveyed, 655 indicated they were registered voters with the Democratic, Republican, or other party or registered unaffiliated (i.e., independent). Maryland Voter Registration (in percent) Party Registration (Aug 2019) Weighted Sample Estimate Registered Voters (n=655) Democratic Party 54 53 Republican Party 25 26 Unaffiliated (Independent) 19 19 Other Party (Green/Libertarian/Other) 1 2 Voters in MD 655 +/-3.8 Total= 4,018,568 Information on voter registration in Maryland from the Board of Elections can be found at http://www.elections.state.md.us. Goucher College Poll Page 8 Q: IDEO Do you consider yourself to be politically [conservative, moderate, or progressive]? All Registered Adults Voters Conservative 23 23 Moderate 48 49 Progressive 24 25 Don’t know (v) 5 4 763 +/-3.6 655 +/-3.8 Total= Goucher College Poll Page 9 The following questions were asked to the full sample of 763 Maryland adults. Please refer to page 16 for the results by registered voter and other key demographics. Results are in percent and may not add up exactly to 100 due to weighting and rounding. Q: TRUMPJOB Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? PROBE FEB SEPT FEB SEPT FEB SEPT 17 17 18 18 19 19 Strongly disapprove (p) 56 56 57 61 50 54 Disapprove 8 15 11 10 16 13 Approve 14 13 15 13 16 11 Strongly approve (p) 15 12 12 10 14 16 Don’t know (v) 7 3 4 4 3 4 Refused (v) >1 1 1 2 1 2 776 +/-3.5 671 +/-3.8 800 +/-3.5 808 +/-3.4 763 +/-3.6 Total= 831 +/-3.4 Goucher College Poll Page 10 Q: GROUPS Next, I'm going to read you the names of several individuals, items, and groups. Please tell me whether you have a generally [favorable or unfavorable] opinion of each one. PROBE [items rotated] Q: OBAMA Q: DEMPARTY Q: REPPARTY Q: SOCIALISM Q: CAPITALISM Q: OBAMACARE Very Very Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Barack Obama 10 12 33 40 6 The Democratic Party 17 22 35 12 13 The Republican Party 25 31 24 9 11 Socialism 24 23 28 3 21 Capitalism 9 22 38 15 17 16 13 37 26 6 The Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare Total = 763, +/-3.6 DK/REF (v) Goucher College Poll Page 11 Q: CLIMATE Changing topics to the environment, I’m going to read you three statements about climate change. Please tell me which one comes closest to your view: [statements rotated] #1 Climate change is caused mostly by human activity. #2 Climate change is caused mostly by natural patterns in the earth’s environment. #3 Climate change does not exist. OCT SEPT SEPT 14 17 19 Statement #1 (human activity) 59 59 69 Statement #2 (natural patterns) 31 35 23 Statement #3 (does not exist) 4 2 1 Some other opinion (v) 4 4 5 Don’t know/Refused (v) 2 >1 2 708 +/-3.7 671 +/-3.8 763 +/-3.6 Total= Q: PERSONAL Do you [agree or disagree] that individual lifestyle choices—things like recycling or reducing household energy use—make a difference in the overall health of the environment? PROBE SEPT 19 Strongly disagree (p) 2 Disagree 4 Agree 35 Strongly agree (p) 57 Don’t know (v) 2 Refused (v) >1 Total= 763 +/-3.6 Goucher College Poll Page 12 RANDOMIZED SURVEY EXPERIMENT • ½ of respondents receive MED1 • ½ of respondents receive MED2 Q: MED1 Do you [support or oppose] a “Medicare for All” health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government? PROBE Q: MED2 Do you [support or oppose] a “Medicare for All” health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government, replacing private insurance plans? PROBE MEDALL combines the responses from MED1 and MED2 MED1 MED2 MEDALL Strongly oppose (p) 18 27 22 Oppose 15 13 14 Support 27 19 23 Strongly support (p) 32 33 32 Don’t know (v) 8 7 8 Refused (v) 1 1 1 391 +/-4.9 372 +/-5.0 763 +/-3.6 Total= Goucher College Poll Page 13 Q: OPEN Now I’m going to read you two statements about America. Please tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own views—even if neither is exactly right. [statements rotated] #1 America’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation. #2 If America is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation. SEPT 19 Statement #1 (openness essential) 71 Statement #2 (too open a risk) 24 Some other opinion (v) 2 Don’t know (v) 2 Refused (v) 1 763 +/-3.6 Total= Q: DEMOCRACY Are you generally [satisfied or unsatisfied] with the way democracy is working in America? PROBE SEPT 19 Very unsatisfied (p) 28 Unsatisfied 28 Satisfied 31 Very satisfied (p) 5 Don’t know (v) 7 Refused (v) 2 Total= 763 +/-3.6 Goucher College Poll Page 14 SCREEN ATTENTION was administered to respondents who indicated they were: • Registered to vote (REGVOTE) Q: ATTENTION How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president: [a lot, some, a little, or none at all]? SEPT 19 None at all 16 A little 22 Some 26 A lot 35 Don’t know/Refused (v) 1 Total= 655 +/-3.8 Goucher College Poll Page 15 SCREEN GENBALLOT was administered to respondents who indicated they were: • Registered to vote (REGVOTE) • Paying a little, some, or a lot of attention to the campaign for president (ATTENTION) Q: GENBALLOT If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you: [statements rotated] SEPT 19 Definitely vote to re-elect the Republican candidate Donald Trump 22 Probably vote to re-elect the Republican candidate Donald Trump 6 Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 13 Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 52 Neither of these; will vote other/third party (v) 2 Don’t know (v) 4 Refused (v) 1 Total= 548 +/-4.2 Goucher College Poll Page 16 Results by Demographics (in percent) • Column percentages • Unless specified, “don’t know,” “refused,” and other volunteered responses are not included below • Margin of error is higher for subsamples • Refer to tables above for questions as worded Registered Voters Maryland Adults Party Registration Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=655) (n=347) (n=125) (n=172) (n=359) (n=404) (n=232) (n=262) (n=269) (n=465) (n=228) (n=70) Disapprove 66 90 67 19 58 74 74 69 59 55 88 73 Approve 29 8 24 73 35 21 16 27 38 40 5 20 Unfavorable 22 7 15 56 26 17 16 20 28 31 6 13 Favorable 73 89 78 36 66 79 77 73 69 63 89 81 Unfavorable 39 17 39 85 48 31 36 38 43 50 21 28 Favorable 51 75 45 8 40 55 42 53 48 39 67 49 Unfavorable 58 76 64 19 52 60 54 56 57 51 69 50 Favorable 33 14 23 77 39 27 28 36 33 40 19 31 Unfavorable 50 35 46 81 58 38 35 53 53 56 32 41 Favorable 30 41 32 8 26 36 38 33 24 28 38 33 Unfavorable 29 34 29 20 25 34 44 28 20 25 40 35 Favorable 54 45 58 67 63 44 39 58 60 61 37 54 Q: TRUMPJOB Q: OBAMA Q: DEMPARTY Q: REPPARTY Q: SOCIALISM Q: CAPITALISM Goucher College Poll Page 17 Maryland Adults College Region Ideology Outside Urban Corridor (n=168) Cons Mod Prog (n=245) Central/ Balt Metro (n=350) (n=175) (n=367) (n=185) 74 82 63 51 33 71 91 33 19 14 30 42 60 24 7 Unfavorable 26 16 11 25 31 47 18 7 Favorable 68 80 86 68 64 47 76 92 Unfavorable 45 30 30 42 47 67 37 18 Favorable 41 59 57 47 37 24 47 75 Unfavorable 48 69 74 52 38 24 57 81 Favorable 39 23 15 38 47 66 30 11 Unfavorable 47 48 40 50 54 69 51 22 Favorable 31 33 37 30 26 17 29 51 Unfavorable 34 24 29 33 26 22 31 36 Favorable 47 62 57 51 51 68 53 45 Less than 4-year degree 4-year degree or more MG/ PG (n=466) (n=297) Disapprove 62 Approve Q: TRUMPJOB Q: OBAMA Q: DEMPARTY Q: REPPARTY Q: SOCIALISM Q: CAPITALISM Goucher College Poll Page 18 Registered Voters Maryland Adults Party Registration Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=655) (n=347) (n=125) (n=172) (n=359) (n=404) (n=232) (n=262) (n=269) (n=465) (n=228) (n=70) Unfavorable 31 13 32 66 36 24 24 31 34 40 12 19 Favorable 62 81 62 25 56 70 70 63 60 53 81 75 Statement #1 (human activity) 66 76 70 44 66 71 82 69 58 66 70 82 Statement #2 (natural patterns) 25 18 20 42 24 23 12 23 33 24 24 15 Statement #3 (does not exist) 2 1 0 4 2 1 1 0 3 1 2 2 Disagree 6 6 5 8 7 4 4 5 8 6 4 6 Agree 92 91 94 91 92 93 96 92 89 91 94 93 Oppose 39 27 34 66 40 33 22 33 53 46 20 26 Support 52 65 57 22 53 57 71 57 41 46 70 71 Statement #1 (essential) 73 87 78 42 67 76 73 78 64 65 83 77 Statement #2 (risk) 22 10 18 49 29 20 23 20 28 30 13 17 Unsatisfied 55 64 59 37 50 61 55 58 53 52 63 57 Satisfied 37 29 32 54 42 30 31 36 40 39 27 39 Q: OBAMACARE Q: CLIMATE Q: PERSONAL Q: MEDALL Q: OPEN Q: DEMOCRACY Goucher College Poll Page 19 Maryland Adults College Region Ideology Outside Urban Corridor (n=168) Cons Mod Prog (n=245) Central/ Balt Metro (n=350) (n=175) (n=367) (n=185) 24 18 32 42 56 27 11 58 72 79 60 48 36 66 84 Statement #1 (human activity) 63 77 79 66 61 41 72 88 Statement #2 (natural patterns) 28 16 14 26 31 48 22 7 Statement #3 (does not exist) 2 1 0 2 2 3 1 2 Disagree 6 5 4 6 8 6 5 4 Agree 91 93 96 92 88 91 93 95 Oppose 35 39 29 35 51 57 40 13 Support 56 53 65 54 42 36 52 79 Statement #1 (essential) 67 78 83 71 54 48 75 87 Statement #2 (risk) 28 18 12 25 39 46 20 11 Unsatisfied 53 59 61 56 45 39 58 67 Satisfied 37 34 34 33 43 47 37 24 Less than 4-year degree 4-year degree or more MG/ PG (n=466) (n=297) Unfavorable 33 Favorable Q: OBAMACARE Q: CLIMATE Q: PERSONAL Q: Q: MEDALL Q: OPEN Q: DEMOCRACY Goucher College Poll Page 20 ATTENTION was administered to respondents who indicated they were: • Registered to vote (REGVOTE) Registered Voters Party Registration Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=655) (n=347) (n=125) (n=171) (n=299) (n=356) (n=172) (n=229) (n=254) (n=411) (n=169) (n=48) None/Little 38 33 44 42 36 40 54 34 32 37 41 38 Some/A lot 62 66 56 59 64 60 46 66 68 63 59 63 Q: ATTENTION Registered Voters College Region Ideology Less than 4-year degree 4-year degree or more MG/ PG Central/ Balt Metro Outside Urban Corridor Cons Mod Prog (n=384) (n=271) (n=214) (n=304) (n=138) (n=151) (n=317) (n=163) None/Little 47 26 31 38 51 36 43 29 Some/A lot 53 74 69 62 49 64 57 71 Q: ATTENTION Goucher College Poll Page 21 GENBALLOT was administered to respondents who indicated they were: • Registered to vote (REGVOTE) • Paying a little, some, or a lot of attention to the campaign for president (ATTENTION) Registered Voters Party Gender Age Race All Dem Ind Rep Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ White Black Other (n=548) (n=299) (n=103) (n=144) (n=262) (n=286) (n=132) (n=189) (n=227) (n=346) (n=160) (n=42) Def/prob vote for Donald Trump 28 6 20 80 36 21 17 32 32 40 8 17 Def/prob vote for Dem candidate 65 87 70 15 56 73 74 64 61 56 81 81 Q: GENBALLOT Registered Voters College Region Ideology Less than 4-year degree 4-year degree or more MG/ PG Central/ Balt Metro Outside Urban Corridor Cons Mod Prog (n=297) (n=251) (n=185) (n=254) (n=109) (n=132) (n=250) (n=152) Def/prob vote for Donald Trump 35 21 12 33 46 67 24 5 Def/prob vote for Dem candidate 56 75 82 60 48 27 69 91 Q: GENBALLOT