MEMORANDUM
TO:

Members of the Republican National Committee

FROM:

Michael S. Steele, Chairman

DATE:

November 8, 2010

RE:

Republican gains in state legislatures on November 2nd

As of this morning, the results of the 2010 elections for state legislative seats are
as follows (States in which Republicans won full or partial control in 2010 are in BOLD
CAPS; states which will have Republican governors in 2011 are marked with asterisk *):
Republican Control of Both State House and State Senate (25 total, gain of 11)
ALABAMA*
Arizona*
Florida *
Georgia*
Idaho*
INDIANA*
Kansas *
MAINE*
MICHIGAN*

MINNESOTA
Missouri
MONTANA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
North Dakota*
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO*
Oklahoma*
PENNSYLVANIA*

South Carolina*
South Dakota*
Tennessee*
Texas*
Utah*
WISCONSIN*
Wyoming*

Republican Control of One Chamber of the State Legislature (5 total, gain of 2)
Alaska* (House R, Senate even)
COLORADO (House R)
IOWA* (House R)

Kentucky (Senate R)
Virginia* (House R)

Republicans Even in One or More Chambers
OREGON (House even, Senate also may be even pending final returns)
Incomplete Results
New York (House D, Republicans may pull even in Senate)
Washington (House D, Republicans may gain one-seat majority in Senate)

1

 Analysis
Over the last two years, the Republican National Committee has been focused on
a single mission: to establish the Republican Party as America’s majority party, a status
which it has achieved only fleetingly, and by some measures not at all, in the past 80
years. As a result of a tremendous amount of hard work by the members of the RNC and
by countless volunteers and supporters across the country, we have taken a dramatic first
step towards that goal.
Yet the Republican Party victories in the 2010 elections were not just dramatic,
they were historic.
Prior to 2010, in all of American history, no party that suffered losses in
consecutive elections as catastrophic as the GOP has in the last two cycles has ever
recovered to win a majority in either the U.S. House or Senate in the succeeding election.
It had never been done. Yet we did it, and your RNC has done its part to make it happen.
We have raised record sums, helped generate record Republican turnout, and fought to
make the GOP a national party once again—winning, and winning big, in areas that not
only supported Democrats in 2006 and 2008, but for generations before.
By many metrics, GOP victories in the 2010 Congressional elections were the
best showing by the Republican Party in generations:
•

More Republicans were elected to the House in 2010 than in any election since
1946.

•

Republicans picked up more House seats in 2010 than in any election since 1938.
(Even that election was less favorable for the GOP: Republicans had been reduced
to a mere 88 seats after FDR's 1936 landslide, and their numbers merely
rebounded to a small, rather than tiny, minority.)

•

Republicans have not won as many House seats en route to taking control from
the Democrats since 1894.

As impressive as those achievements are, however, almost certainly the most
dramatic GOP gains were at the state legislative level, a major focus of the RNC and
our state parties. The 2010 elections fundamentally changed the partisan control of state
legislatures.
Partisan Control of State Legislatures Prior to 2010 Elections:
•
•
•
•

Democrats controlled both chambers in 27 states
Republicans controlled both chambers in 14 states
Party control was divided in 8 states
(NE has non-partisan unicameral legislature)

2

 Partisan Control of State Legislatures After 2010 Elections:
•
•
•
•

Republicans will control both chambers in 25 states, a gain of 11
Democrats will control both chambers in 16 states
Party control will be divided in 6 states
Party control is not yet clear in 2 states

•

Democrats did not pick up a single state legislature from the GOP.

•

The GOP will pick up at least 680 state legislative seats, dramatically exceeding
the party’s 1994 gains.

•

Overall, the GOP is on track to hold 54% of the total number of seats, nearly
4,000 in all—the most since 1928.

•

Eleven legislatures came under full Republican control: Maine, New Hampshire,
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana, North
Carolina and Alabama.

•

Republicans took over state legislative chambers in virtually every region—
New England (gaining four chambers in a region where the GOP had controlled
none—including sweeping Maine for the first time in 50 years), the Mid-Atlantic,
South, Midwest, and Mountain West. Even on the Pacific Coast, the GOP
overcame a 12-seat deficit to draw even in the Oregon House, and still may draw
even in the Oregon Senate as well; in Washington state, Republicans still may
claim control of the Senate after having had been down 13 seats .

•

In many cases, the swing in legislative seats was huge. In Minnesota, for
example, what had been an 87-47 Democrat margin in the House swung to a 10seat GOP majority, and a 46-21 Democrat margin in the Senate became a 7-seat
GOP majority.

•

In Alabama and North Carolina, Republicans won both chambers of the
legislatures for the first time in more than a century.

•

Republicans now have 20 state "trifectas", that is, states which have a Republican
governor and in which the GOP has a majority in both the senate and the lower
legislative chamber. Democrats only have 9 such “trifectas”.

•

As a result of the 2010 elections, Republicans will control 27 senates and 29
lower house chambers. The Democrats will control 19 senates and 19 lower
house chambers.

•

One senate (Alaska) and one lower house (Oregon) are tied. Partisan control of
three senates (New York, Oregon, and Washington) is undecided.

3

 Redistricting
As every political observer is keenly aware, the partisan composition of state
legislatures will be particularly critical over the next two years because of the pending
redistricting for federal, state, and local offices in the wake of the recently completed
decennial census.
Viewed in the context of redistricting, the Republican legislative gains are even
more impressive.
Not only did the GOP make huge gains in legislative seats, but the party is now
particularly well-positioned in those states which are most likely to gain or lose seats in
the coming Congressional reapportionment, where states necessarily will do the most to
realign their delegations.
Also, the success of a ballot initiative in California will take redistricting out of
the hands of that state’s governor and state legislature, thus reducing the number of
Congressional seats in which Democrats control the redistricting process nationally by
more than a third. On Election Day, California voters passed Proposition 20 with over 60
percent of the vote, giving the citizen commission established in 2008 responsibility for
Congressional redistricting as well as state legislative redistricting. Proposition 27, a
measure advocated by Nancy Pelosi and supported by the Democratic party which would
have dismantled the commission and returned redistricting to the legislature, was soundly
defeated. (Two redistricting initiatives also passed in Florida which established
redistricting criteria similar to those which are already law in some states, but the Florida
legislature still will control the process.)
Final census data will be reported in the coming months. However, based on
interim census data compiled through 2009, it appears that 23 states may gain or lose
Congressional seats. Of those, three states are projected to gain or lose more than one
seat. In one of the three, Arizona, a commission controls redistricting. In the other two,
redistricting will be controlled by a Republican governor and Republican legislature:
Texas (projected gain of +4)
Ohio (-2)
Of the 20 states which may gain or lose one seat, Republicans will control the
redistricting process in seven states:
Florida (+1)
Georgia (+1)
South Carolina (+1)
Utah (+1)
Michigan (-1)
Pennsylvania (-1)

4

 Wisconsin (-1)
Democrats will control redistricting in at least two states projected to possibly
lose one seat:
Illinois (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Assuming the approximately 8,000 vote Democrat lead in the Minnesota
gubernatorial race holds up after a recount (if not, Minnesota also would be under full
Republican control), party control will be divided in six states which may gain or lose
one Congressional seat:
Nevada (+1)
North Carolina (+1)
Oregon (+1)
Iowa (-1)
Louisiana (-1)
Minnesota (-1)
Partisan control is yet to be determined in the New York State Senate, where
Republicans still may gain a tie. If that chamber is held by the Democrats, that party will
control the redistricting process.
Finally, redistricting will be conducted by an independent commission in five
states which may gain or lose Congressional seats, including California, which may lose
a seat for the first time since statehood:
Arizona (+2)
California (-1)
Missouri (-1)
New Jersey (-1)
Washington (+1)
Counting all states, not just those projected to gain or lose seats in the pending
Congressional reapportionment, party control of the redistricting process breaks down
approximately as follows, pending final allocation of seats to each state based on final
census data:
193 Congressional District lines will be drawn by Republicans
44 Congressional District lines will be drawn by Democrats
103 Congressional District lines will be drawn by Split Partisan Control
88 Congressional District lines will be drawn by Commissions
7 Congressional Districts will remain At-Large and unaffected by redistricting

5

 These totals reflect that the fact that state law in both Maine and Connecticut
requires a two-thirds vote to approve redistricting. Therefore, though Maine will have a
Republican governor and legislature and Connecticut will have a Democrat governor and
legislature, the redistricting process in both states effectively will be under split control.
The totals above also are based on the assumption that control of the New York
State Senate will be split. If final election results determine that Democrats retain control
of that chamber, Democrats will draw the lines for 72 Congressional seats, and 75 seats
will be drawn in states with split partisan control.

* * *
Again, congratulations on the Republican Party’s historic victories in the 2010
elections, and thank you for all the hard work each of you have done to make those
victories possible. Without your efforts, none of our success would have been possible.
If you have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact me or
Tom Hofeller of the RNC staff.

6