1 Report from the Crime Prevention Research Center Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2018* John R. Lott, Jr. President johnrlott@crimeresearch.org 484-802-5373 August 14, 2018 • Rujun Wang and Roger Lott provided valuable research assistance in producing this report. Copyright 2018 by John Lott. No more than a third of tables may be reproduced without the permission of the author and must be properly credited. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 2 Table of Contents SUMMARY 3 THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF PERMITS 5 THE CHANGING GENDER AND RACE OF PERMIT HOLDERS 24 EVIDENCE THAT LOS ANGELES COUNTY OFFICIALS DISCRIMINATE AGAINST HISPANICS AND WOMEN WHEN GIVING OUT PERMITS 31 EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FACING DEATH THREATS ARE PREVENTED FROM GETTING PERMITS IN STATES WITH DISCRETIONARY PERMITTING RULES 18 PERMIT HOLDERS ARE EXTREMELY LAW-ABIDING 33 DETERRING CRIME 37 WHY is THE NUMBER OF PERMITS INCREASING 40 12 Table 2: PERCENT OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PERMITS BY STATE 15 Table 3: PERMIT FEES BY STATE Table 1: NUMBERS OF PERMITS BY STATE Table 4: REVOCATION RATES FOR PERMIT HOLDERS 18 35 DATA SOURCES FOR NUMBER OF PERMITS, PERMIT FEES, AND LENGTH OF PERMITS 43 Appendix on rates that permit holders are convicted of violent crime 53 Appendix on Academic Research 56 Academic Advisory Board 59 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 3 Summary Despite the expectations of many after the 2016 elections, the number of concealed handgun permits has continued increasing. In 2018, the number of concealed handgun permits soared to now over 17.25 million – a 273% increase since 2007. 7.14% of American adults have permits. Unlike surveys that may be affected by people’s unwillingness to answer some personal questions, concealed handgun permit data is the only really “hard data” that we have on gun ownership across the United States. Still, an even larger number of people carry because in 14 states people don’t need a permit to carry in all or virtually all those states. Among the findings of our report: ■ Last year, despite the common perception that growth in the number of permit holders would stop after the 2016 election, the number of permits grew by about 890,000. ■ Outside the restrictive states of California and New York, about 8.63% of the adult population has a permit. ■ In fifteen states, more than 10% of adults have permits, up from just eleven last year. ■ Alabama has the highest rate — 22.1%. Indiana is second with 17.9%, and South Dakota is a close third with 17.2%. ■ Four states now have over 1 million permit holders: Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Texas. ■ Another 14 states have adopted constitutional carry in all or almost all of their state, meaning that a permit is no longer required. However, because of these constitutional carry states, the nationwide growth in permits does not paint a full picture of the overall increase in concealed carry. ■ Permits continued to grow much faster for women and minorities. Between 2012 and 2018, the percent of women with permits grew 111% faster for women and the percent of blacks with permits grew 20% faster than for whites. Permits for Asians grew 29% faster than for whites. ■ Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 Murder Rate Violent Crime Rate Figure 1a: Murder Rates and the Percentage of the Adult Population with Permitted Concealed Handguns 8 7.14 9 Murder Rate 7 6 0 Percent of Adults with a Permit 5 - 'Unear 4 (Murder Rate) 3 Expon. (Percent of 2 Adults with a Permit) 1 0 lb Owrt? Figure 1b: Violent Crime Rates and the Percentage of the Adult Population with Permitted Concealed Handguns 7.14 7'00 6.5 I 9 Violent Crime Rate per 10 million people 6'00 513 I Percent of Adults 0. with 3 Permit 5.'Linear (Violent 3 72 3'97 Crime Rate per 10 4-00 million people) Expon. (Percent of 3 00 Adults with a Permit) 2.00 1.3 I 1.00 0.00 'rle on math Eon!" 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 5 The Exponential Growth in the Number of Permits Figures 1a and b show how the percentage of adults with concealed handgun permits has been growing exponentially over time. There were 2.7 million concealed handgun permit holders in 1999, 4.6 million in 2007, 8 million in 2011, 11.1 million in 2014, and now 17.25 million in 2018. The growth in permits has been continuous. At the same time that there has been an exponential growth in permits, there has been a general linear decline in murder and violent crime rates. Murder rates fell from 5.7 to 5.3 per 100,000, a 7% drop. Overall violent crime fell by 24 percent. Meanwhile, the percentage of adults with permits soared by five fold. Such simple evidence by itself isn’t meant to show that concealed handgun permits reduce violent crime rates, as many factors account for changes in crime rates, but only that there doesn’t seem to be any obvious positive relationship between permits and crime. Over the years, more and more states have adopted laws allowing individuals to obtain concealed carry permits. Illinois was the last state to do so, issuing its first permits in March 2014. Even Washington, D.C. finally enacted a concealed handgun permit law in September 2014. Today, permitted concealed handguns are allowed in every jurisdiction of the United States. Some of the increase in permits in earlier years was due to more states having permitted concealed handguns. But the rules vary greatly from state to state, and generally states have made it easier over time to get permits. There are no fees or training requirements in the fourteen states that do not require permits in all or almost all their state. The average fee for a five-year permit is $64. California is at the high end of the spectrum, charging up to a $385 fee and requiring 16 hours of training. The training costs also vary widely. If private trainers are allowed, the costs could be as low as $250. But some jurisdictions require that applicants go through the same training as law enforcement, and costs can be over $1,000. Applicants must also demonstrate to their local sheriff that they really need a gun. In many parts of California, permits only go to the most politically connected applicants. By contrast, South Dakota has no training requirement and charges only $10 for a four-year permit. Similarly, Pennsylvania has no training requirement and charges $19 for a five-year permit. You just need to be 21 and pass a background check. A lot of changes in fees are occurring this year. Texas just reduced its fee from Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 6 $140 to $40 and Florida from $60 to $55. The average fee for state permits fell by 6% from 2017, dropping to $63.81 (see Table 3). Not surprisingly, concealed carry is much more popular in states where permits are relatively inexpensive and easy to obtain. Texas has seen dramatic growth in the number of permits after the drop in fees and reduction in training requirements, with it moving from the state with the third most permits to second. This report will focus on changes in the number of concealed carry permits. From a crime prevention standpoint, the important thing is whether people actually carry guns, not merely whether they are allowed to do so. All states now allow concealed carry. And they are all issuing more permits. The longer that concealed carry laws have been in effect, the more time that people have had to apply for and receive permits. But President Obama’s election in 2008 also seems to have been a major factor. Many have referred to Obama as the best gun salesman ever. Not only did Obama’s presidency increase gun sales, it also increased the number of concealed handgun permits. Conventional wisdom held that the sharp rise in gun sales during Obama’s presidency was driven, at least in part, by the threat of gun control. That’s why everyone expected gun sales to decline after Trump’s victory. Some evidence indicates that gun sales have cooled down. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) has seen a slight drop-off in background checks compared to last year.1 During the first five months of 2017, background checks were down about 9.3% (998,672) compared to the same period in 2015. But there are multiple problems with using background checks to measure the number of people buying guns. Some people undergo multiple checks to buy multiple guns, but sometimes multiple guns are sold with a single check. 1 The NICS background check system does differentiate background checks for concealed handgun permits from other types of background checks. Yet, the permit estimate from the NICS checks consistently implies a much higher number of permits than supplied by the states themselves. For example, Texas says that there were 1,200,746 active permits as of May 31st 2017, but the NICS systems counts 1,413,621 background checks for the permit system, an eighteen percent difference. That gap is due to people moving from Texas, dying, and having their permits revoked, though those reasons don’t explain the entire 200,000 difference. While our estimate shows that there are over 17.25 million permits, summing up the NICS permit checks gives a number nearer to 30 million. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 7 Furthermore, people who have already passed a concealed carry background check are not always required to undergo another one when they buy a gun. Polling is another problematic method of measuring gun ownership. When asked if they own a gun, many people may be reluctant to answer truthfully. They may feel that it's none of the pollster's business, or be afraid to answer because of mass shootings or distrust of government.2 Some polls show an increase in gun ownership, while one shows a decrease.3 Previously, the increase in permits had been relatively slow, growing from roughly 2.7 million permit holders in 1999 to 4.6 million in 2007. But the number of concealed handgun permits exploded during the Obama presidency. In December 2011, the Government Accountability Office estimated that there were at least 8 million concealed handgun permits. By June 2014, it was 11.1 million. Now, in 2018, the number is now up to 17.25 million.4 After the 2016 election, gun sales slowed down noticeably. After NICS firearm background checks hit their all time peak of 27.4 million in 2016, they fell back to 24.96 during 2017. Yet, while the growth of concealed handgun permits has slowed after the election, they have continued to grow, increasing by 890,000 permits this year. While concealed handgun permit data is a better measure of changing gun 2 There are a number of polls that show this increasing distrust of government. The Pew Research Center describes the trust in government a “near historic lows.” See for example, Pew Research Center, Public Trust in Government: 1958-2014, November 13 2014 (http://www.peoplepress.org/2014/11/13/public-trust-in-government/). 3 Several NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last year show that about 47% to 48% of American households own a gun. It is up from 44% in 1999. Another Monmouth University Poll in March found that 46% of Americans lived in households with guns, but if you a portion the 7% who refused to answer so that you assume 46% of them live in households without guns, there would be about 50% that live in homes with guns. The one survey that has shown a consistent drop over time is by the General Social survey, which went from the high 40% range in the early 1970s to the low 30% level in 2014. Crime Prevention Research Center, “Gun ownership remains at 47%, but that probably underestimates the true rate,” March 25 2018 (https://crimeresearch.org/2018/03/problems-with-using-the-general-socialsurvey-to-measure-gun-ownership/). 4 There are 16.5 million permits to residents in those states. Some people hold a permit outside their state simply because it is recognized in states that they want to travel to other states. For some people that might be their only permit. The two states that issue a lot of permits outside there state are Florida (225,896) and Utah (487,826). New Hampshire (38,874) also seems to have a sizeable number. For some others they might hold more than one permit. The total number of permit holders is between 16.5 and 17.25 million. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 8 ownership rates than NICS checks or polls, it clearly underestimates the true number and growth of people who can legally carry concealed handguns. The scale of that underestimation is increasing over time. There are three reasons for this. 1) Permits are not required in 12 states as well as virtually all of Arkansas and Montana. Generally, people in these states only obtain permits so that they can carry concealed when traveling outside of their home state. With no fees or other requirements, these states are probably the ones where concealed carry is most common. Indeed, despite the fact that the number of people who carried undoubtedly went up significantly when there were no longer any fees or training requirements to carry, permit growth in the Constitutional Carry states was only half the rate as the other states that allow concealed carry. 2) Data on concealed carry is not readily available for a few states. For example, New Hampshire only collects data on permits issued to nonresidents. They weren't willing to give an exact figure, only giving us a conservative estimate. Alabama and New York simply don’t collect this data at all on the state level, and it is a very cumbersome process to obtain data from a large number of individual counties or cities. In the case of Alabama, we collected data for counties representing 37% of the state’s population and then assumed that the rate of concealed carry was similar to the rest of the state. However, this is likely to underestimate the total number of permits, as concealed carry is likely to be less popular in the more urban counties that we had data for, as opposed to more rural counties. A similar process was used for New York. 3) For some states, the data is one or more years old and thus misses the recent, accelerated growth in permits. As more and more states decide not to require permits, the number of people who can legally carry a handgun will increasingly outpace the number of permit holders. The number of people who carry permitted concealed handguns is clearly related to the cost of getting permission. When there is no cost whatsoever, concealed carry becomes very popular. Due to old and missing data, 17.25 million is undoubtedly an underestimate of the total number of Americans with permits. On the other hand, 752,596 permits are Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 9 “non-residential,” some of which are issued to people who already have concealed handgun permits from their home states. Most of these non-residential permits are issued by Utah (487,826) and Florida (225,896). As shown by the map on the next page, every region of the country has both states that don't require permits as well as states where over 10 percent of adults have concealed handgun permits. There is at least one county in Alabama where almost two-thirds of the adults have a concealed handgun permit (Cleburne with 64.6%). In 2017, there were five counties in Pennsylvania that had about 30% to 50% of their adult populations with concealed handgun permits: Potter (50.3%), McKean (34.6%), Warren (34.6%), Cameron (31.3%), and Armstrong (30.1%). Figure 2: Percent of adult population with permits by state Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 10 While about 7.14% of the adult population has concealed handgun permits, one of the big questions is how frequently permit holders actually carry their guns. The fact that 14 states allow permitless carry doesn't make it any easier to come up with an estimate. But a Pew Research Center Survey last year makes it possible to estimate the percentage of American adults who carry guns and how frequently they carry them (“America’s Complex Relationship With Guns,” Pew Research Center, June 22 2017). The Pew numbers include both concealed and open carry. In most states, permits are not required for open carry. It might be rare for someone to openly carry a handgun on a regular basis, but open carry may account for a large share of those who carry a gun on occasion. The survey also counts people no matter their reason for carrying, even if it is simply for sport on their way to or at a shooting range or hunting. What it means to carry "some of the time" is also not clearly defined. The Pew survey thus likely overestimates the number of people who carry, especially those who carry occasionally. There are three relevant sets of numbers from the Pew survey: -- 30% of American adults say that they own a gun -- 72% of the people who own a gun, say they own a handgun or a pistol -- 11% of handgun owners say that they carry all the time, 26% say they carry most or all the time, and 57 percent say that they carry at least some of the time. With a little multiplication, we find that: -- 2.4% say that they carry all the time. -- 5.4% carry most or all the time. -- 12.3% carry at least some of the time. To summarize, the total number of permits in the US is at least 17.25 million. Add in people who legally carry without a permit, and the number clearly becomes much larger. While 7.14% of the adult population has permits, the percentage of Americans who say that they carry most or all the time is about three quarters as large at 5.4%. What does this mean in practice? It means that in most places where people are allowed to carry a concealed handgun, there will be someone carrying a concealed handgun. If the probability that any one person has a concealed handgun permit is 5.4%, in a room with 10 people (assuming that the probabilities are independent), the probability that at least one person will have a permitted Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 11 concealed handgun is 43%. In a room with 20 people, that probability goes up to 67%. With 40, that probability rises to 89%. The Comparing Permit Issuing Rates Across States As just noted, there is a huge variation in the rate that permits are given out by state. The following two tables provide more specific details on these differences. 7.14% of the adult population has concealed handgun permits. If you exclude the eight May Issue states and the District of Columbia (California, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island), where there is discretion on who gets permits, that raises the percent for the other 42 states to 10.14%. For the vast majority of the US outside of these coastal areas it is very likely that any place that allows people to carry a concealed handgun and Fifteen states have more than 10% of their adult populations and seventeen states have less than 5%. Alabama continues to lead other states with the largest share of its adult population with permits, about 22%, while California, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island all have less than one percent with permits. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 12 Table 1: Number of Permit Holders by State State Active Permits Alabama¥ Data Updated State rate based 797,177 on 4 large counties in June 2018 Alaska† 11,485 June 22, 2018 Arizona† 333,285 June 24, 2018 Arkansas†† 227,898 February 9, 2018 California 108,000 March 13, 2018 Colorado 433,483 March 31, 2018 Connecticut 267,330 July 2, 2018 Delaware 18,096 January 31, 2018 District of Columbia 1,482 June 29, 2018 Florida 1,931,719 total, 1,705,823 residential July 31, 2018 Georgia 1,006,946 June 30, 2018 Hawaii - December 31, 2016 Idaho† 121,984 June 18, 2018 Illinois 300,705 June 18, 2018 Indiana 869,829 July 1, 2018 Iowa 289,060 December 31, 2017 Kansas† 85,000 July 5, 2018 Kentucky 374,132 December 31, 2017 Louisiana 204,625 December 31, 2017 Florida is the state that has Florida is the state that has issued the most concealed carry permits at 1.93 million, followed by Texas with 1.314 million. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 13 Maine† 42,000 June 30, 2018 Maryland 20,628 May 31, 2018 Massachusetts 401,452 June 28, 2018 Michigan 628,923 April 2, 2018 Minnesota 284,954 July 31, 2018 Mississippi† 46,598 June 21, 2018 Missouri† 160,184 December 31, 2012 Montana* 52,982 February 6, 2018 Nebraska 61,781 July 1, 2018 Nevada 126,995 May 1, 2018 New Hampshire† 38,874 nonresidential/at least 50,000 residential December 31, 2017 New Jersey 1,212 2012-2013 New Mexico 45,115 June 29, 2018 New York¥ March to July 2018, Broome, Herkimer, Nassau, Oneida, Rockland, and Saratoga Counties were 100,549 used to make this calculation for the state outside of New York City. NYC data was also used. North Carolina 640,702 June 18, 2018 North Dakota† 48,356 February 8, 2018 Ohio 703,476 March 31, 2018 Oklahoma 287,786 December 31, 2017 Oregon 261,155 February 5, 2018 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 14 Pennsylvania 1,310,263 Rhode Island 2,288 February 9, 2018 June 19, 2018 South Carolina 324,923 January 1, 2018 South Dakota 107,276 May 31, 2018 Tennessee 618,752 June 1, 2018 Texas 1,314,432 May 31, 2018 Utah 713,550 total, 225,724 residential June 30, 2018 Vermont† No permits issued Virginia 398,239 June 18, 2018 Washington 583,001 July 3, 2018 West Virginia† 163,098 January 18, 2017 Wisconsin 333,217 June 15, 2018 Wyoming† 31,994 June 15, 2018 TOTAL 17,248,117 † States where permits not required to carry within the state. Permits only obtained to carry outside of state. †† Permits not required to carry in 99.4 percent of Montana and the vast majority of counties in Arkansas. For those people, the only reason that they would obtain a permit is to carry in other states. ¥ Data are only available at the county level for Alabama or New York State. For Alabama, we were able to get permit data information for the following counties: Baldwin, Cullman, Jackson, Jefferson, Madison, and Montgomery. so we assumed a 0.1% permitting rate based on Herkimer, Suffolk, Monroe, and Suffolk Counties as well as New York City http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleadinginformation-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysisof-recent-mass-shootings/. For NYC, Gawker used a FOIA release of NYPD licensees. 114 pages of carry licenses with 50 names each = 5,700. http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-ownguns-in-new-york-city. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 15 Table 2: Ranking States by Percent of the Adult population with Permits % of Adult Population with concealed carry permit State Alabama¥ 22.11% Indiana 17.92% South Dakota 17.17% Pennsylvania 13.49% Georgia 13.28% Iowa 12.56% Utah* 12.43% Tennessee 12.35% West Virginia† 11.87% Kentucky 11.38% Washington 10.45% Florida* 10.44% Arkansas†† 10.40% Colorado 10.34% Oklahoma 10.21% Idaho† 9.95% Connecticut 9.82% North Dakota† 8.79% South Carolina 8.59% Michigan 8.44% Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 16 North Carolina 8.35% Oregon 8.25% Ohio 8.13% Wisconsin 7.72% Wyoming† 7.70% Massachusetts 7.59% Minnesota 6.95% Montana†† 6.69% Texas 6.57% Arizona† 6.42% Virginia 6.29% Louisiana 6.04% Nevada 5.67% New Hampshire†* 4.80% Nebraska 4.50% Kansas† 4.08% Maine† 4.02% Missouri† 3.55% Illinois 3.20% New Mexico 2.97% Delaware 2.48% Alaska† 2.20% Mississippi† 2.17% New York¥ 0.67% Maryland 0.46% California 0.37% Rhode Island 0.28% District of Columbia 0.27% Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 17 New Jersey 0.02% Hawaii 0.00% (0.02% if include permits for private security) Vermont† Not Applicable †States were permits not required to carry within the state. Permits only obtained to carry outside of state. These numbers will dramatically underestimate the true rate that guns are legally carried concealed in these states. †† Permits not required to carry in 99.4 percent of Montana (areas outside of city limits). Most counties in Arkansas will not prosecute people for carrying without a permit. For those people, the only reason that they would obtain a permit is to carry in other states. * Only Florida’s, New Hampshire’s and Utah's residential permits are included here. ¥ Estimates made using a sample of permits from some counties within the state. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 18 Table 3: Cost of Getting Permits by State 2018 Initial Handgun Carry Permit Fee Length Permit Cost to carry for 5 is Valid (years) years State Permit Type Alabama 1-5 years Concealed pistol $5-$20 per year (Varies (chosen by permit by County) applicant) $25-$100 (Varies by County) Alaska† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $87 5 $87 Arizona† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $60 5 $60 Arkansas† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $142.11; age 65+ $90.61 (Includes on-line 5 application and background check fee.) California Colorado $142.11; age 65+ $90.61 Local fee not to exceed $100 for new license.; State DOJ charges another $95. Local fingerprinting costs of between $20 and $40. A few jurisdictions require psychological Concealed carry screening test that can weapons license run up to $150. 2 (May Issue only) Training fees in some areas are as high as over $1,000. The licensing authority may charge an additional fee, not to exceed $25, for processing the application for a license renewal. $150 to $300 (Varies by Issuing Agency) Concealed handgun permit $52.5 plus additional fees (Varies by County) $52.5 plus additional fees (Varies by County) 5 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 19 Connecticut $192 = $70 (Temporary Local Permit Cost) + $75 Permit to carry (State Permit Cost) + pistol or revolver 5 $12 (Federal Processing permit Fee) + $35 (State Processing Fee). $192 Delaware Concealed deadly weapon permits $65 for issuing; $65 for renewal initial application valid for 3 $91 years; renewal every 5 years thereafter District of Columbia Concealed carry pistol license $110=$75(Application Fee)+$35(Fingerprint Processing Fee) 2 $275 Florida Concealed weapon or firearms license $97=$55(Initial License Fee) + $42 (Fingerprint Fee) 7 $69.3 Georgia Firearms license $75 average fee (Varies 5 by County) $75 average fee (Varies by County) Individual permits to acquire handguns are required for each transaction and must be used with 10 days of issue. A $42 permit to acquire shotguns and rifles is good for one year from the date of issue for any number of transactions. Hawaii License to carry handgun $42 Idaho† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $20 plus additional fees 5 (Varies by County) $20 plus additional fees (Varies by County) Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 20 Illinois $150 for 5 years for Concealed carry residents; $300 for 5 5 handgun license years for non-residents $150 for 5 years for residents; $300 for 5 years for nonresidents Indiana License to carry handgun 4 year Personal Protection: $10 ($5 Refundable) for local fee and $30 for state fee; Lifetime Personal Protection/ No Current License: $50 ($30 Refundable) for local fee and $75 for state fee; All NEW license applications incur a $11.95 fee for IDEMIA Electronic Fingerprinting. Iowa Permit to carry weapons $50 Kansas† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $112=$79.5(Attorney General)+$32.5(Local Sheriff's Office) 4 $140 Kentucky Permit to carry concealed handgun $60=$20(Local Sheriff's Office)+$40(Kentucky 5 State Treasurer) $60 Louisiana Concealed handgun carry permit $125; age 65+ $62.5 $125; age 65+ $62.5 Maine† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states Resident, $35 for an original application and $20 for a renewal; 4 Nonresident, $60 for an original or renewal application 4 $50 5 $50 5 $40 for residents; $75 for nonresidents Maryland Handgun wear $75 plus fingerprint and carry permit fees initial application valid for 2 $125=$75(Initial)+$ years; renewal 50(Renewal) every 3 years thereafter Massachusetts License to carry 6 $100 $83.3 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 21 Michigan Concealed pistol $100 license 4-5 $100 Minnesota Permit to carry pistol not to exceed $100 (Varies by County) 5 $100 Mississippi† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $112 5 $112 Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states not to exceed $100 for application 5 $100 Montana * Concealed carry handgun permit (Not required outside city limits) $55=$50(Issuance Fee) + $5 (Fingerprint 4 Processing Fee); $25 for renewal Nebraska Permit to carry a concealed $100 handgun 5 $100 Nevada Concealed carry handgun permit not to exceed $60 (FBI fees will be extra) 5 $60 (FBI fees will be extra, assume $27.50) New Hampshire† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $10 for resident; $100 for nonresident 5 $10 for resident; $100 for nonresident New Jersey Concealed carry handgun permit $20 2 $50 Concealed handgun carry permit $100=$56(Application Fee paid to NMDPS) + $44(Background Check paid to Cogent) for application; $75=$31(Application Fee paid to NMDPS)+$44(Backgrou nd Check paid to Cogent) for renewal 4 $118.8 Missouri† New Mexico $61.3 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 22 New York¥ New York City Firearms license to carry concealed Usually about $100, but varies by county = permit fee generally 5 not to exceed $10 + safety classes are usually also required $427=$340(License Concealed carry Fee)+$87(Fingerprint handgun license Processing Fee) $10 (Varies by County) 3 $711.7 North Carolina Concealed handgun permit $90=$80(Nonrefundable Fee) + $10 (Fingerprinting Processing Fee) 5 $90 North Dakota† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $60 5 $60 Ohio License to carry a concealed handgun $67 5 $67 Oklahoma Self defense act license $100 for 5-year license; 5 $200 for 10-year license Oregon Concealed $65 for new; $50 for handgun license renewal 4 $77.5 Pennsylvania License to carry handgun $20 5 $20 Rhode Island License to carry a concealable weapon $40 4 $50 South Carolina Concealed weapon permit $50 5 $50 South Dakota Concealed Pistol $10 Permit 5 $10 Tennessee Handgun carry permit $100 for 8-year license; 8 $300 for lifetime license $62.5 Texas License to carry a handgun $40 (as of September 1 5 2017) $40 Utah Concealed firearm permit $52 for resident; $62 for nonresident $52 for resident; $62 for nonresident 5 $100 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 23 Vermont† No permits required/does not issue permits N/A Virginia Concealed handgun permit not to exceed $50 for resident; not to exceed 5 $100 for nonresident Washington $48 (some law enforcement agencies Concealed pistol will laminate your license license for an extra charge) 5 $48 West Virginia† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $100=$75(Application Fee)+$25(if approved) 5 $100 Wisconsin Concealed weapon license $40=$30(Application Fee)+$10(Background Check Fee) 5 $40 Wyoming† Constitutional carry/permit for reciprocity with other states $64 5 $64 N/A N/A $50 for resident; $100 for nonresident Average cost of because of the permit to carry within a state (The fee in pure Constitutional Carry states is zero. Since $63.81 permits are required in parts of Arkansas and Montana, the state permit fees are used.) Average cost of because of the permit to carry within a state (The fee in pure Constitutional Carry states and for those $59.82 parts of Arkansas and Montana that don’t require a permit to carry is zero.) † States where permits not required to carry within the state. Permits only obtained to carry outside of state. †† Permits not required to carry in 99.4 percent of Montana and most counties in Arkansas will not prosecute people for not having a permit. For those people, the only reason that they would obtain a permit is to carry in other states. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 24 The Changing Gender and Race of Permit Holders Twelve states, with about 6.8 million permit holders between them, have reported permit data by gender for 2018. Among those states, women averaged 26% of permit holders. The states represent all regions of the country: Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Washington State. (Our previous estimate of the percent of permits held by women was higher, but we had more state that reported those numbers.) For eight states, we have the data to make a comparison over at least a six-year period. All of these states experienced a general upward trend in female permit holders, though Oklahoma and Texas experienced slight drops in 2018. ■ Arizona: the percentage of permit holders who are women rose from 20.7% in 2012 to 21.2% in 2016 and 22.0% in 2018. ■ Connecticut: from 24.3% in 2012 to 33.3% in 2016. ■ Florida: from 18% in May 2012 to 24.1% in May 2016 and 26.3% in June 2018. ■ Indiana: from 18.0% in June 2012 to 23.9% in June 2016 and 27.4% in March 2018. ■ Louisiana: from 18.3% in 2009 to 24.1% in 2016 and 25.6% in 2018. ■ North Carolina: from 21.3% in June 2012 to 27.5% in June 2016 to 28.7% in March 2017. ■ North Dakota: from 11.2% in 2010 to 24.9% in 2014. ■ Oklahoma: from 28.9% in 2012 to 36.3% in 2016 to 34.1% in 2018. ■ Tennessee: from 25.9% in 2012 to 34.3% in 2016 to 34.9 in 2018. ■ Texas: from 22.00% in 2012 to 28.0% in 2016 to 27.5% in 2018. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 25 ■ Washington State: between 2005 and 2014, “the growth rate for women getting new permits [was] twice as fast as that of men.”5 We don’t know the exact percentages in those two years, but by 2017, women held 25.2% of permits. In the eight states where we have data by gender for both 2012 and 2018, the number of permits increased by 207% for women and by 103% for men –– a 101% faster rate among women. Five states have data on permit issuance by race for 2012 and 2018. In these states (Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas) the number of permits grew at a 20% faster rate for blacks than for whites. Several states provide detailed data since 2002 or earlier. Texas provides detailed information on both race and gender from 1996 through 2014.6 The data indicate that permitting has increased fastest among blacks, followed closely by Asians. While whites still hold the vast majority of permits, the number of black permit holders has grown more than twice as quickly as the number of white permit holders. After Texas reduced its minimum training hours from ten to four in 2012, the growth in permit-holding by Asians, blacks, and American Indians reached by far its most rapid phase. While the number of blacks with permits grew by 71% in the four years prior to the reduced training requirement, it grew by almost 140% in the four years after 2012. The growth rate of permits for American Indians also doubled after the training requirements were reduced. When permit data is broken down by race and gender, we find that rates of permit holding among American Indian, Asian, black, and white females all grew much faster than the rates for males in those racial groups. Concealed carry has increased most rapidly among black females. From 2000 to 2016, the rate of growth was 2.22 times faster than among white females. North Carolina has detailed data on the race of permit holders from 1996 to 2016. 5 Justin Mayo, Brian M. Rosenthal, and Erika Schultz, “Concealed-carry permits skyrocket, especially for women,” The Seattle Times, May 31 2014 (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/concealed- carry-permits-skyrocket-especially-for-women/). 6 Those who indicated that they were of multiple races were excluded because people’s willingness to say that they are of multiple races has changed over time. Thus it is not possible to know how much of the change is due to people’s willingness to identify themselves this way or an actual change in the number of people in this category. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 26 Again, Asians show the largest growth, followed by American Indians and then Blacks. The growth rate for blacks is still about twice as fast as that for whites. Oklahoma data from 2002 to 2016 also show a similar pattern. Asians and American Indians tied for the fastest growth rate. The growth in the number of Blacks permits was about 50% greater than the growth for white permit holders. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 27 Figure 3b: Texas: Percent Change in the Number of Permit Holders Issued by Race and Gender by Year (2000 to 2017) 14.00 12.00 _h 0 ?Female Amerlcan Indlan n. :l 2 U) .0 8.00 ?Female Aalan E. ?Female Black ?Female Whlte 6.00 ?Male Amerlcan Indlan ?Male Asian -Male Black Male Whlte a. 4.00 0.00 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 I Year Figure 3c: Percent of Texas Permit Holders who are Black 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% I -696gas?sag?asasset's?ci??t 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% Percent change Figure 3d: Percent of Texas Permit Holders who are Female 88 ozo: PP Figure 4a: North Carolina: Percent Change in the Number of Active Permit Holders Issued by Race by Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 2013 2012 2014 2013 2015 2014 2016 2015 2017 2016 ?Asian ?Black Indian ?White 28 Percent of permits issued by year that are for Percent of permits issued by year that are for 29 Figure 4b: North Carolina: Percent of Permits held by Blacks 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% Ci 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 83888338388388.929193331?3 222283883838838883838 Figure 4c: North Carolina: Percent of Permits held by Women 23.0% 25.0% 24.0% f:22.0% d) 0 320.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 30 Figure 5a: Oklahoma Percent Change in Number of Active Permit Holders Issued by Race by Year 900% 000% 700% 600% ?Aslan 0 500/0 ?Black 400% Indian ?Whlte 300% ?Unknown 200% 100% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figure 5b: Oklahoma Percent of Permit Holders by Race 6.0% 5.3% 5.0% - 4.070 31% 3.2% 300/ . ?lnd an ?Black 2.3% Aslan 2.0% - 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 31 Evidence that Los Angeles County Officials discriminate against Hispanic and Women when giving out permits In 2013, LA Weekly obtained a list of the 341 concealed carry permit holders in Los Angeles County, California.7 That is only about 0.0045% of the 7.7 million adults living in the county in 2013. LA Weekly pointed out that the people given permits were judges, reserve deputy sheriffs, and a small group who gave campaign contributions or gifts to then-Sheriff Lee Baca. Something that LA Weekly didn’t do was look at the list to determine the race of those lucky few getting permits. In Los Angeles County in 2013, about 48.1% of the people living there were Hispanic, 9% were black, and 50.7% women. To check the race of those who received permits, we used two approaches. First, we did Google searches as well as searches on social media to find information on people. Using this, we identified the race of 135 people: 4 Hispanics (3%), 7 blacks (5.2%), 15 Asians (11.1%), and 109 whites. Only 16 were females (11.9%). Hispanics and women had much lower permitting rates than the general population and the rates that those groups obtained concealed handgun permits in places that don’t allow authorities discretion in determining whether people have a justifiable need to carry a gun for protection. Asians were not as different than their 14.4% of the population in 2013. For all 341 names, we used a website that listed the probability that the last name is Hispanic.8 We included any last name as Hispanic when the probability of them being Hispanic was at least 5%. Doing that implied that a total of just 22 of the 341 people could be Hispanic (6.5%), still a number dramatically lower than their share of the population. There are three names that we couldn’t classify as male or female (Bobbie, Tracy, Robbie), but if you assume that they are all women, only 26 of the 341 permit holders are women (7.6%). By comparison, this is dramatically lower than 29% of the permit holders being women that we found for eight states in 2012. Eight states that had similar information on race showed that 11% of permit holders were black. 7 Gene Maddaus, “Who's Packing Heat In L.A. County? Sheriff Lee Baca's Gun Permit List Includes Many Personal Friends,” LA Weekly, February 14 2013 (http://www.laweekly.com/news/whos-packing-heatin-la-county-sheriff-lee-bacas-gun-permit-list-includes-many-personal-friends-4174664). 8 The website that we used is called “Most common last names for Latinos in the U.S.” (http://names.mongabay.com/data/hispanic.html). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 32 Previous work that we have done has discussed the impact of how gun control in Chicago on the poor obtaining handguns.9 In Chicago and DC, the zip codes that have guns under Democrat rules tend to be higher income and much more heavily white areas. Partial List of People who are facing death threats and prevented from getting permits in states with discretionary permitting rules -- Cases in San Francisco10 -- Woman who had a criminal protective order (2014) -- Corrections officer, denied three times, last time in October 2013. Inmates had clearly threatened him. -- Former Del Norte County (California) deputy district attorney who was worried that past felons that he had put in prison would harm him. -- New Jersey -- Israel Albert Almeida had evidence that a “tenant's live-in boyfriend threatened to kill him” (2015).11 -- Marc Stephens faced multiple death threats (2013)12 -- Lt. Col. Terry Russell “applied for a concealed carry permit as military personnel and especially personnel that work at highly sensitive 9 John R. Lott, Jr., “Can poor people be trusted with guns? Fox News, March 12 2013 (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/03/12/can-poor-people-betrusted-with-guns.html). 10 Matt Drange, “Want to carry a concealed gun? Live in Sacramento, not San Francisco,” Reveal, June 12 2015 (https://www.revealnews.org/article/want-to-carry-a-concealed-gun-live-in-sacramento-not-sanfrancisco/). 11 Joe Carlson, “Second Amendment group backs Andover Twp. man’s bid to carry gun,” New Jersey Herald, March 1 2015 (http://www.njherald.com/story/28230557/second-amendment-group-backsandover-twp-mans-bid-to-carry-gun#). 12 Chris Eger, “New Jersey man fights state gun permit law all the way to Supreme Court,” Guns.com, January 30 2017 (http://www.guns.com/2017/01/30/new-jersey-man-fights-state-gun-permit-law-allthe-way-to-supreme-court/). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 33 areas (like the Picatinny Armory) are at higher risk of terrorist attacks.” (2016)13 -- New York -- John Stossel, Fox News Host, New York City 2013: Denied a permit despite providing evidence of many death threats.14 -- Sean McCarthy served as a key witness that sent members of the “Pagans Outlaw Motorcycle Club” to prison. In 2017, he tried to get a permit as he was worried that he faced retribution.15 -- Washington, DC -- In 2016, Corrections Officers Robert Smith, Ronald DuBerry, Harold Bennette, and Maurice Curtis, who had all received death threats from inmates that they had once guarded, were finally granted permit licenses but only after a case that they took to the DC Circuit Court.16 Permit Holders are Extremely Law-abiding It is very rare for permit holders to violate the law. In order to appreciate how incredibly rare these violations are, one needs to remember that there are over 17.25 million permit holders in the US. Indeed, it is impossible to think of any other group in the US that is anywhere near as law-abiding. To get an idea of just how law-abiding concealed handgun permit holders are, we need only compare them to police. According to a study in Police Quarterly, 13 Sam Hoober, “CCW Weekend: What Constitutes “Good Cause” In May-Issue States,” November 5 2016 (http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/05/ccw-weekend-what-constitutes-good-cause-in-may-issuestates/). 14 "The Insane Gun Laws of NYC," Fox News, November 16 2013 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24jRaxXT7JQ). 15 Michael O’Keeffe, “Former club manager sues county over gun permit denial,” Newsday, March 30 2017 (http://www.newsday.com/long-island/former-club-manager-sues-county-over-gun-permitdenial-1.13340941). 16 Fox News, "DC must let ex-prison guards pack heat, federal court rules," Fox News, June 3 2016 (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/06/03/dc-must-let-ex-prison-guards-pack-heat-federal-courtrules.html). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 34 police committed an average of 703 crimes per year from 2005 to 2007.17 113 of these involved firearms violations. This is likely to be an underestimate, since not all police crimes receive media coverage. The authors of the study may also have missed some media reports. With about 685,464 full-time police officers in the U.S. from 2005 to 2007, we find that there were about 103 crimes per hundred thousand officers. For the U.S. population as a whole, the crime rate was 37 times higher -- 3,813 crimes per hundred thousand people. Perhaps police crimes are underreported due to leniency from fellow officers, but the vast crime gap between police and the general populace is indisputable. Even given the low conviction rate for police, concealed carry permit holders are even more law-abiding than police. Between October 1, 1987 and June 30 2017, Florida revoked 11,189 concealed handgun permits for misdemeanors or felonies.18 This is an annual revocation rate of 10.4 permits per 100,000. In Texas in 2016 (the last year for which data is available), 148 permit holders were 19 convicted of a felony or misdemeanor – a conviction rate of 12.3 per 100,000. Combining Florida and Texas data, we find that permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at less than a sixth of the rate for police officers. Among police, firearms violations occur at a rate of 16.5 per 100,000 officers. Among permit holders in Florida and Texas, the rate is only 2.4 per 100,000. That is just 1/7th of the rate for police officers. But there's no need to focus on Texas and Florida — the data are similar in other states. 17 Phil Stinson, J Liederbach and TL Freiburger, “Exit Strategy: An Exploration of Late-Stage Police Crime,” Police Quarterly December 2010 13: 413-435. Data on the number of full-time law enforcement employees is available from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports from 2005 to 2007, Table 74 (https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_74.html). 18 Concealed Weapon or Firearm License Summary Report, October 1, 1987 - June 30 2017 (http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf). 19 The conviction rates of permit holders during that year is available here (https://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/Reports/ConvictionRatesReport2016.pdf). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 35 Table 4: Revocation Rates for permit holders for any reason in 2017, revocations for firearm violations are less than 1/10th the rate that excludes revocations for changing residency. State Rate Source 0.363% http://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/Rep ortsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB8725 6E6600773612 0.099% http://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/Rep ortsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB8725 6E6600773612 Florida (year before July 31, 2018) 0.065% https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/downlo ad/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf and year earlier sheet Kentucky 0.19% https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/downlo ad/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf Louisiana 0.084% https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/downlo ad/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf Maryland 0.658% Patrick Mccrory, Maryland State Police Licensing Division Massachusetts 0.079% Michaela Dunne, Manager of Law Enforcement & Justice Services, Massachusetts Department of Criminal Justice Information Services (617) 660-4682 Michigan 0.305% https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf Minnesota* 0.217% https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/ooc/newsreleases/Pages/BCA-releases-2017-permit-to-carryannual-report.aspx Ohio 0.062% https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf Oklahoma 0.022% https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/ooc/newsreleases/Pages/BCA-releases-2017-permit-to-carryannual-report.aspx Tennessee 0.075% Arizona (Year before August 5, 2018) Colorado** https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 36 nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf Texas 0.013% https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/ooc/newsreleases/Pages/BCA-releases-2017-permit-to-carryannual-report.aspx Utah 0.028% https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf Washington State 0.038% Teresa Clark, Washington Department of Licensing, Public Disclosure 0.366% https://www.doj.state.wi.us/sites/default/files/dles /ccw/2017%20Annual%20CCW%20Statistical%20Re port.pdf Wisconsin *Revocations for non-traffic violations. ** Excludes revocations for change in residency. Listed above are the recent revocation rates in 16 states. Most of these rates include revocations for any reason, including people moving out of the state, and for the states where the revocation rates are higher than hundredths of a percentage point are due to residency revocations. People can also lose their permits for some types of traffic violations, for forgetting to have their permits with them, or for being charged with or convicted on a violent misdemeanor or felony. In Ohio, most of these revocations were apparently a result of handgun course teachers not spending the required number of hours teaching their classes.20 20 “Concealed carry instructor allegedly gave out 170 invalid training certificates,” The News-Herald (Ohio), May 25 2015 (http://www.news-herald.com/general-news/20150525/concealed-carryinstructor-allegedly-gave-out-170-invalid-training-certificates); “About 50 gun permits invalid after two instructors accused of forgery,” The Columbus Dispatch, July 15 2016 (http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/07/14/Concealed-carry-permits-bad.html); Lynn Thompson, “Silent Justice for gun permits,” Bryan (Ohio) Times, February 4 2015 (http://www.bryantimes.com/news/local/article_35d9b7bd-10c7-5d86-b9fe-a56843d73d91.html); “CCW Instructors get jail for cutting class short,” Lima (Ohio) News, November 25 2014 (http://limaohio.com/archive/18890); Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 37 Since permit holders commit virtually no crimes, right-to-carry laws can’t increase violent crime rates (see appendix).21 Deterring Crime Many factors affect crime rates: arrest and conviction rates, policing policies, prison, demographics, income, poverty, and education. But concealed carry laws are also part of the story, especially when a large percentage of the population has permits. The overwhelming majority of peer-reviewed academic research by economists and criminologists concludes that ownership of permitted concealed handguns causes a reduction in violent crime. The debate is between those claiming a reduction in crime and those denying any effect (for a survey of the academic research, see Lott, “What a balancing test will show for right-to-carry laws,” University of Maryland Law Review (2012): 1205-1218). Most research, however, focuses on what states allow right-to-carry, not the more relevant question of how many people actually have permits. (Only peerreviewed studies by John Lott in the second and third editions of More Guns, Less Crime [University of Chicago Press, 2000 and 2010] use the number of permits to measure the impact of concealed carry laws). Empirical tests should measure whether crime rates fell relatively sharply in those states with the largest percentage of permit holders. In 2014, the seven states with constitutional carry had much lower rates of murder and violent crime than did the seven jurisdictions with the lowest percentages of permit holders. Indeed, the murder rate was 31 percent lower in the states not requiring permits. The violent crime rate was 28 percent lower. Compared to the rest of the country, the 25 states with the highest concealed carry rates experienced markedly lower rates of murder and violent crime. Of course, such a comparison is far too simplistic. There are many factors that influence crime rates, and simple, cross-sectional comparisons are unable to account for all of them. We can account for differences across states only by looking at how crime rates vary before and after changes in a state’s concealed carry laws. 21 A detailed discussion of these numbers and how the percentages are calculated is available here (https://crimeresearch.org/2017/07/badly-flawed-misleading-donohue-aneja-weber-study/). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 38 States have adopted concealed handgun laws in different years and issued permits at different rates. This allows for revealing comparisons (see Appendix for a large and growing body of peer-reviewed literature). We must look across states and compare changes in crime rates with changes in the rates of permit holding. Doing so has consistently revealed a very strong relationship between more permits and less violent crime (e.g., Lott, More Guns, Less Crime, University of Chicago Press 2010 and Lott 2012). Our analysis here doesn’t provide such sophisticated estimates, simply because the necessary data will not be available for at least a couple of years. Thus, this report should only be viewed as suggestive.22 Instead of just comparing states that don’t require permits with those that do, it is also possible to look just at states that require permits. After accounting for the per capita number of police, new prison admissions, and demographics, this state level permit data suggests that each 20 percent increase in the rate of adults with permits (about one percentage point) is roughly associated with a 15 percent drop in the murder rate. Since the latest state level crime data is only available through 2014, the 2011 and 2014.23 Using permit and murder data from 2011 through 2014, we find that states with the sharpest increases in permits had the largest percentage drops in murder rates. A 10 percent increase in the share of the adult population with permits 24 reduces the murder rate by 1.4 percent. 22 Regressing the natural log of the murder rate on the percent of the adult population with permits, the number of full-time sworn police officers per 1,000 Americans, and a time trend finds: ln(murder rate) = -.2499 (7.15) percent of adults with permits -.8197 (5.50) police per 1,000 Americans – 0.0023 (3.41) Prison Population per 100,000 people + 0.0068 (2.51) year time trend -8.95 (1.76) Constant Using the percent of the population in prison instead of a time trend produced very similar results. 23 To estimate this we ran a couple simple regressions on the murder rate on the percentage of adult population with permits as well as with and without state and year fixed effects. There is a lot of noise in these estimates both because the permit numbers come from many different years as well as the estimated number of murders in 2013. These estimates have a great deal of measurement error and should only be taken as suggestive. That said, the simplest estimate regressing the murder rate on the percentage of the adult population with permits produces a coefficient and absolute t-statistics of - 12.68 (1.66). With fixed effects, the estimate was 6.8 (0.82). 24 Regressing the percent change in murder rates on the percent change in the share of the adult Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 39 population between 2011 and 2014 gives us this: Percent change in murder rates = -.136 (1.38) the percent change in the share of the adult population + .212 (0.99) Constant F-statistics = 1.92, Adjusted R-squared = 0.0242 We used the GAO report on percent of the population with permits for 2011 (http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/592552.pdf). There were obvious errors in the GAO report for Maine and Connecticut. For example, in 2011, the GAO states that there were only 4,000 concealed handgun permits. That would imply an amazing 725 percent increase in permits between 2011 and 2013. For a permitting system that had been around for decades and no recent change in their laws, it would be surprising to have any state see that type of change. Maine’s Special Investigations Unit told us that there were in fact 24,000 in 2011. Possibly the GAO simply left off the number “2” when then recorded this information. In Connecticut, we had a smaller number of permits in 2011 (115,000). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 40 Why is the Number of Permits Increasing? A simple Google Trends search shows that people’s interest in concealed carry has spiked in the wake of recent mass public shootings. Here is the search activity after four notable attacks. These attacks have also been followed by sharp increases in the number of Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 41 permits being issued. With about 890,000 new concealed handgun permits issued in just the last year — bringing the total to 17.25 million — Americans have clearly done more than simply look up information on the Internet. The surge in concealed handgun permits corresponds closely with opinion polls on guns. Take a series of polls by the Pew Research Center. In December 2012, 48% of respondents said that owning a gun “protected them from being crime victims” as opposed to 37% who answered that it would be “putting people’s safety at risk.”25 By December 2014, people’s positive impressions of gun ownership had grown to a margin of 57-to-38. Similar changes can be seen in polls by Gallup and ABC News-Washington Post.26 They asked a more narrow question: whether having a gun in the home makes the home safer or more dangerous. The change has been dramatic. In 2000, Gallup found that only 35 percent of Americans thought that owning a gun made their home safer. By 2014, that number had soared to 63 percent. It's not just that Americans think that having a gun makes them safer as individuals. They also feel better knowing that their neighbors are armed. A Rasmussen poll from this past June found that a 68-to-22 percent margin of Americans “feel safer in a neighborhood where guns are allowed.”27 A poll by PEW helps to explain why there has been such a large increase in concealed handgun permits among blacks and women. The poll shows a 25 percentage point increase in the proportion of blacks with a favorable view of gun ownership. This is the largest increase of any group. The increase among all women was 11 percentage points, and the increase among men was 8 percentage points. 25 Pew Research Center, “Growing Public Support for Gun Rights: More Say Guns Do More to Protect Than Put People at Risk,” December 10 2014 (http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/10/growingpublic-support-for-gun-rights/). 26 Justin McCarthy, “More Than Six in 10 Americans Say Guns Make Homes Safer,” Gallup, November 7, 2014 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/179213/six-americans-say-guns-homessafer.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndicatio n). Scott Clement and Peyton Craighill, “Majority of Americans say guns make homes safer,” Washington Post, April 18, 2013 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/thefix/wp/2013/04/18/majority-of-americans-say-guns-make-homes-safer/). 27 Rasmussen Reports, “Americans Prefer Living in Neighborhoods With Guns,” June 12 2015 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_pr efer_living_in_neighborhoods_with_guns). Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 42 Data Sources for Number of Concealed Handgun Permits, fees for permits, and the length of time that a permit is valid. State Data Source Alabama Counties used to estimate the number of concealed handgun permit in the state are Baldwin County, Cullman County, Madison County, Cleburne County, Montgomery County, Jackson County, Jefferson County, and Shelby County. Chad Petri, "Pistol Permit Prices Vary Across Counties," WKRG.COM, March 19 2016 http://wkrg.com/2016/03/19/pistol-permit-prices-varyacross-counties/ Alaska* Eric Gaffney, Records & Licensing Supervisor, Division of Statewide Services, Alaska Department of Public Safety (907) 269-5634 Alaska Department of Public Safety, Permits & Licensing - Concealed Handgun Permits https://dps.alaska.gov/Statewide/RI/PermitsLicensing/ACHP-FAQ https://dps.alaska.gov/getmedia/0440c0e0-2f58-44069101-65ca34a2e2f6/ACHP-Statutes-and-Regs.pdf;.aspx Arizona* Arizona Department of Public Safety, Concealed Weapons and Permits - Statistics and Fees http://www.azdps.gov/services/public/cwp Arizona Administrative Code, Department of Public Safety (DPS) - Concealed Weapons Permits R13-9-204 http://apps.azsos.gov/public_services/Title_13/13-09.pdf Arkansas Bill Sadler, Arkansas State Police - Public Information Officer Arkansas State Police – Concealed Handgun Carry Licensing https://www.ark.org/asplicense/chcl_application/chcl.aspx Arkansas Code - Concealed Handgun Carry Licensing §5-73302 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 43 https://static.ark.org/eeuploads/asp/Arkansas_concealed_h andgun_carry_license_rules_effective_1-1-2018.pdf California Kristopher Hooks, "New 'enhancements' to system will make getting concealed weapons permits easier," ABC 10, December 20 2016 http://www.abc10.com/news/local/new-enhancements-toprocess-will-make-getting-concealed-weapons-permitseasier/375499761 California Penal Code sections 26185, 26190, and 26220 Colorado Colorado General Assembly – Statutory Reports http://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc. xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB87256E6600773612 CBI Firearms InstaCheck Unit – Firearm Statistics https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cbi/currentyearstatistics CBI Firearms InstaCheck Unit – Concealed Handgun Permit (CHP) Fees https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cbi/chpfees CBI Firearms InstaCheck Unit – Concealed Handgun Permit (CHP) Statutes C.R.S. 18-12-204 http://www.lexisnexis.com/hottopics/colorado/?app=0007 5&view=full&interface=1&docinfo=off&searchtype=get&se arch=C.R.S.+18-12-204 Connecticut Janet K. Ainsworth, Staff Attorney 3/Ethics Liaison, Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Special Licensing and Firearms - Connecticut State Pistol Permit http://www.ct.gov/despp/cwp/view.asp?a=4213&q=494614 https://www.ct.gov/despp/lib/despp/slfu/dps-769c_pistol_permit_instructions_to_applicants_rev_12-0117.pdf Delaware Susan Judge, Court Administrator, Superior Court of Delaware Delaware Courts - Concealed Deadly Weapons http://courts.delaware.gov/superior/weapons.aspx District of Columbia Karimah Bilal, Public Affairs Specialist, Office of Communications (PIO), Metropolitan Police Department Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 44 Metropolitan Police Department - Applying for a Concealed Carry Pistol License https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/applying-concealed-carry-pistollicense Code of the District of Columbia § 7–2509.03 https://beta.code.dccouncil.us/dc/council/code/titles/7/cha pters/25/ Florida Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Division of Licensing, Concealed Weapon or Firearm License Summary Report http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499 /118851/cw_monthly.pdf Concealed Weapon or Firearm: Section 790.06, Florida Statutes, Fee Schedule http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7438 /118429/License_Fees.pdf Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Concealed Weapon License – Renew Your License https://www.freshfromflorida.com/ConsumerResources/Concealed-Weapon-License/Renew-YourConcealed-Weapon-License Georgia Georgiacarry.org The State of Georgia - Applying for a Firearms License https://georgia.gov/popular-topic/applying-firearms-license Hawaii Hawaii Firearm Registrations Summary http://freebeacon.com/wpcontent/uploads/2017/02/2016-KPD-firearm-reg-rots-1.pdf http://freebeacon.com/wpcontent/uploads/2017/02/Firearm-Registrations-in-Hawaii2015.pdf Hawaii Rifle Association - Hawaii Gun Laws http://hawaiirifleassociation.org/hawaii-gun-laws/ Idaho Leila McNeill, CPM, Operations Officer, Bureau of Criminal Identification, Idaho State Police Idaho Statutes 18-3302 https://legislature.idaho.gov/statutesrules/idstat/Title18/T1 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 45 8CH33/SECT18-3302/ Illinois E-mail: Illinois State Police, Freedom of Information Officer FOIA_Officer@isp.state.il.us https://www.ispfsb.com/Public/AboutTheAct.aspx Indiana Indiana State Police Firearms Licensing Statistics by County https://www.in.gov/isp/files/ISP_Firearms_Licensing_Statist ics_2018_Issued_and_Active_2nd_Quarter.pdf Indiana State Police, Firearms Licensing Fee Schedule http://www.in.gov/isp/3065.htm Iowa Ross Loder, Bureau Chief, Program Services Bureau, Administrative Services Division, Iowa Department of Public Safety Iowa Department of Public Safety, Division of Administrative Services – Weapon Permit Information and Forms http://www.dps.state.ia.us/asd/weapon_permits.shtml Chapter 724 of the Iowa Code and Administrative Rules, 661, Chapter 91 Kansas Charles W. Klebe, Director & Assistant Attorney General, Concealed Carry, Private Detective & Bail Enforcement Agent Licensing Units Kansas Application for Concealed Carry Handgun License and Qualifying Information, Office of Attorney General Derek Schmidt https://ag.ks.gov/docs/default-source/forms/concealedcarry-application.pdf?sfvrsn=20 Kansas Personal and Family Protection Act [K.S.A 75-7c01 et. seq] https://ag.ks.gov/docs/defaultsource/documents/concealed-carry-faqs.pdf?sfvrsn=6 Kentucky Kentucky State Police http://kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw-home/ccdwannual-stats-reports/ Dana Peacock, Program Coordinator, Kentucky State Police, Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 46 Criminal ID & Records, C.C.D.W. Section Kentucky State Police, Concealed Deadly Weapons http://kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw-home/ccdwfaqs/ Louisiana Louisiana Department of Public Safety http://www.lsp.org/handguns.html Louisiana Concealed Handgun Permit Application Packet http://www.lsp.org/pdf/chApplication.pdf Maine State Representative Rich M. Cebra who interceded with the Maine State Police for us. State of Maine Laws Relating to Permit to Carry Concealed Handguns http://www.maine.gov/dps/msp/licenses/documents/Wea pons/CFP%20Booklet.pdf Maryland Patrick Mccrory, Licensing Division, Maryland State Police Matt Labudzki, IT Lead Programmer Analyst, Information Technology and Communications Division, Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services Maryland State Police - Handgun Wear and Carry Permit http://mdsp.maryland.gov/Organization/Pages/CriminalInv estigationBureau/LicensingDivision/Firearms/WearandCarry Permit.aspx Massachusetts Michaela Dunne, Manager of Law Enforcement & Justice Services, Massachusetts Department of Criminal Justice Information Services Massachusetts Government - Gun Ownership in Massachusetts http://www.mass.gov/eea/agencies/dfg/dfw/educationevents/hed/gun-licensing-requirements.html#Training Requirements Michigan Michigan State Police - CPL Applications by County and Status https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/All_Statuses_R eport_April_2_2018_619274_7.pdf Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 47 Michigan State Police - Concealed Pistol License Renewal Information http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,4643,7-1231878_1591_3503_4654-10955--,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,4643,7-1231878_1591_3503_4654-10929--,00.html Minnesota Judith M. Strobel, JD, MBA, Senior Legal Analyst, Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension - Firearms https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/bca/bcadivisions/administrative/Pages/firearms.aspx Minnesota Statutes 624.714 https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/624.714 Mississippi M/Sgt. Odis Easterling, Director, Firearm Permit Unit Mississippi Department of Public Safety – Firearm Permit Application https://www.dps.state.ms.us/firearms/firearms-permitunit/firearms-permits-faqs/ Missouri Email: Missouri State Highway Patrol mshppied@mshp.dps.mo.gov Committee on Legislative Research, Oversight Division 1360-04 http://lawcenter.giffords.org/concealed-weaponspermitting-in-missouri/ Montana † Eric Sell, Communications Director, Montana Department of Justice Montana Code 45-8-322 http://leg.mt.gov/bills/mca/title_0450/chapter_0080/part_ 0030/section_0220/0450-0080-0030-0220.html Nebraska Email: Nebraska State Patrol nsp.ccw@nebraska.gov Nebraska State Patrol – Conceal Carry https://statepatrol.nebraska.gov/vnews/display.v/SEC/Servi ces%7CConcealed%20Carry%20Permits%3E%3EConceal%20 Carry%20FAQ Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 48 Nevada Nevada Department of Public Safety http://rccd.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/gsdnvgov/content/Resour ces/Active%20CCW%20by%20SO%20(1%20MAY%2018)%20 Final.pdf Nevada Code - Concealed Firearms https://www.leg.state.nv.us/NRS/NRS-202.html http://www.nevadacarry.org/concealed-carry.html New Hampshire Sergeant Michael. J. McQuade, Permits and Licensing Unit Commander State of New Hampshire Department of Safety https://www.nh.gov/safety/divisions/nhsp/ssb/permitslicen sing/documents/dssp260.pdf New Jersey State of New Jersey N.J.S.2C:58-3 and N.J.S.2C:58-4 http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/S3500/3124_I1.HT M New Mexico Teasha J. Roybal, Law Enforcement Records Bureau, IPRA Coordinator -Department of Public Safety New Mexico Department of Public Safety - Concealed Handgun Carry https://www.dps.nm.gov/index.php/concealed-carryfaqs?highlight=WyJjb25jZWFsZWQiXQ== https://www.dps.nm.gov/templates/g5_hydrogen/custom/ PDFs/Concealed%20Carry%20License/FILLABLE/NMAC%20C CW%20Booklet%20FILLABLE.pdf New York NYC Counties used to estimate the number of concealed handgun permit in the state are Herkimer County, Nassau County, Rockland County, Oneida County, Saratoga County and Broome County Westchester County. New York State Police – Firearms https://troopers.ny.gov/Firearms/ Police Department, City of New York, Handgun License Application http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/permits/ HandGunLicenseApplicationFormsComplete.pdf North Carolina Beth A. Starosta-Desmond, North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation, Criminal Information and Identification Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 49 Section, Assistant Special Agent in Charge North Carolina Firearms Laws http://www.ncdoj.gov/getdoc/32344299-a2a7-4ae5-99fd9018262f64ac/NC-Firearms-gun-Laws.aspx North Dakota North Dakota Attorney General - Concealed Weapon Licenses https://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/public-safety/concealedweapons-licenses North Dakota Attorney General - Online Application Process https://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/public-safety/concealedweapons-licenses/obtaining-north-dakota-concealedweapon-license/online North Dakota Concealed Weapon License https://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/sites/ag/files/documents/C WL-Manual.pdf Ohio Ohio Attorney General http://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications/Pu blications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-CarryPublications/Concealed-Carry-Statistics Ohio’s Concealed Carry Laws and License Application http://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/PublicationsFiles/Publications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-CarryPublications/Concealed-Carry-Laws-Manual-%28PDF%29 Oklahoma Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation http://www.ok.gov/osbi/ Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation - Handgun Licensing https://www.ok.gov/osbi/Handgun_Licensing/How_to_appl y_as_a_first_time_license_holder_or_expired_renewal.htm l Oregon Patricia Whitfield, Director, CJIS Division, Oregon State Police Oregon State Legislature 166.292 https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors166.h tml Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 50 Pennsylvania Corporal Adam Reed, Communications Office Director, Pennsylvania State Police Pennsylvania Statutes Title 18 Pa.C.S.A. Crimes and Offenses § 6109. Licenses http://www.legis.state.pa.us/WU01/LI/LI/CT/HTM/18/00.0 61.009.000..HTM Rhode Island Lisa A. Pinsonneault, Special Assistant Attorney General, The State of Rhode Island Office of the Attorney General State of Rhode Island Attorney General http://www.riag.ri.gov/home/pistol_renewal_form.pdf South Carolina South Carolina Law Enforcement Division http://www.sled.sc.gov/CWPStats.aspx?MenuID=CWP South Carolina Concealed Weapon Permit Application http://www.sled.sc.gov/documents/CWP/CWPApplicationF orm.pdf South Carolina Code of Laws 23-31 http://www.scstatehouse.gov/code/t23c031.php South Dakota South Dakota Secretary of State – Concealed Pistol Permits http://sdsos.gov/general-services/concealed-pistolpermits/default.aspx Tennessee Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/safety/documents/Curren t_HG_PermitHolders.pdf Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security - Handgun Carry Permits https://www.tn.gov/safety/handgunmain.html Texas Texas Department of Public Safety - Reports & Statistics http://www.dps.texas.gov/rsd/LTC/reports/demographics.h tm http://www.dps.texas.gov/rsd/LTC/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ ActiveLicandInstr2017.pdf Mandy Tennill, Records Analyst, Operations and Shared Services, Regulatory Services Division, Texas Department of Public Safety Texas License to Carry a Handgun (LTC) Fee Table http://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/documents/LTCFeeSch Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 51 edule.pdf Texas Department of Public Safety, Regulatory Services Division - License to Carry A Handgun https://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/faqs/index.htm Utah†† Utah Department of Public Safety, Firearm Statistical Review, Second Quarter 2018 https://bci.utah.gov/wpcontent/uploads/sites/15/2018/07/2018Q2.pdf Utah Department of Public Safety, Concealed Firearm Permits https://bci.utah.gov/concealed-firearm/ Vermont* No permits required to carry. No permits offered for those who carry out of state. Virginia Michael S. Matthews, Manager, Firearms Transaction Center, Virginia State Police E-mail: Virginia Department of State Police foia@vsp.virginia.gov http://www.vsp.state.va.us/Firearms_ResidentConcealed.sh tm http://www.vsp.state.va.us/Firearms_NonresidentConceale d.shtm Washington Email: Washington State Department of Licensing Public Records https://wadolpublicrecords.nextrequest.com/ Washington State Department of Licensing - Concealed pistol license http://www.dol.wa.gov/business/firearms/faconcealreq.ht ml West Virginia West Virginia Code §61-7-4 http://www.legis.state.wv.us/wvcode/chapterentire.cfm?ch ap=61&art=7§ion=4#01 Wisconsin Walt Neverman, Director – Crime Information Bureau, Wisconsin CSO / Nlets Rep, NCIC Subcommittee Chair Wisconsin Department of Justice - Concealed Carry Annual Reports https://www.doj.state.wi.us/dles/cib/conceal- Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 52 carry/concealed-carry-annual-reports Wisconsin Department of Justice – Concealed Carry https://concealedcarry.doj.wi.gov/ccwonline/steps/startAp plication.html;jsessionid=686F87BE01355D5D7E378AAD060 F6284.ccwonline1#! Wyoming* Heather Calvert, Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation, Criminal Justice Records Analyst - Concealed Firearm Permits Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation - Concealed Firearm Permits http://wyomingdci.wyo.gov/dci-criminal-justiceinformation-systems-section/concealed-firearmspermits/cfp-faq Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 53 Appendix on rates that permit holders are convicted of violent crimes. Louisiana: Here are the percentages of permit holders who were charged or convicted of any type of felony, whether violent or nonviolent (aggravated assault is one type of felony, but felonies also typically include traffic violations). Including charged cases skews the number substantially, since permit holders have very low conviction rates in general. After all, permit holders are usually arrested even if they used their guns in justifiable self-defense. Police and prosecutors can’t just let them off the hook until they are sure about what happened. The vast majority of these cases are unlikely to involve firearms, however. (reports) 2016: 16. Percent of permit holders who are charged or convicted of a felony: 0.0092% 2015: 19. Percent of permit holders who are charged or convicted of a felony: 0.0123% 2014: 15. Percent of permit holders who are charged or convicted of a felony: 0.0109% Share of violent crimes 2015: There were 25,208 violent crimes in Louisiana, with 19 felony charges or convictions against permit holders. Assuming that these felonies were all violent and that the accused were guilty of the charges, permit holders would account for just 0.08% of the total. Again, this is an overestimate of permit holders’ share of violent crimes. 2014: There were 23,983 violent crimes in Louisiana, with 15 felony charges or convictions against permit holders. Assuming that these felonies were all violent and that the accused were guilty of the charges, permit holders would account for just 0.06% of the total. Again, this is an overestimate of permit holders’ share of violent crimes. Michigan: Below is the percentage of permit holders who were convicted of aggravated assault (with and without a weapon) 2015-2016: 17. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an aggravated assault: 0.003% 2014-2015: 11. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an aggravated assault: 0.002% Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 54 Also, the percentage of permit holders who were convicted of any type of violent crime (Murder, manslaughter, criminal sexual conduct, armed robbery, unarmed robbery, aggravated assault) 2015-2016: 22. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a violent crime: 0.00396% These 22 cases compare to a total of 41,231 violent crimes in Michigan, that is a 0.053% share. 2014-2015: 18. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a violent crime: 0.00352% These 18 cases compare to a total of 42,348 violent crimes in Michigan, that is a 0.044% share. Minnesota: Permit revocations due to any type of assault 2015: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% 2014: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% 2013: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% 2012: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% 2011: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% 2010: 0. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an assault: 0.000% There were 7,094 aggravated assaults in Minnesota in 2015 and no concealed handgun permit holders were convicted of these crimes. Oregon: Permit holders who were convicted of any type of felony, violent or nonviolent. The vast majority of these cases are unlikely to involve firearms. 2016: 19. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0074% There were 10,468 violent crimes in Oklahoma in 2015. Even though felonies involve more violent crimes, the 19 felonies that permit holders were convicted of in 2016 equal only 0.182% of violent crimes. Oklahoma: Permit holders who were convicted of any type of felony. (reports) 2016: 20. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0071% 2015: 16. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0062% 2014: 15. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0069% 2013: 15. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0078% Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 55 2012: 10. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: Unknow rate because we don't have permit data for 2012. There were 16,506 violent crimes in Oklahoma in 2015. Even though felonies involve more violent crimes, the 16 felonies that permit holders were convicted of equal only 0.097% of violent crimes. Tennessee: Revocations due to any type of assault other than vehicular assault 2016: Zero. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a non-vehicular assault: 0.000% 2015: Zero. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a non-vehicular assault: 0.000% Permit holders who were convicted of any type of felony. 2016: 29. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0049% 2015: 31. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of a felony: 0.0061% There were 40,400 violent crimes in Tennessee in 2015. Even though felonies involve more violent crimes, the 31 felonies that permit holders were convicted of equal only 0.077% of violent crimes. Texas: Convictions for aggravated assault with any type of weapon 2016: 8. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an aggravated assault: 0.00067% 2015: 10. Percent of permit holders who are convicted of an aggravated assault: 0.0011% There were 67,727 aggravated assault in Texas in 2015. Even though felonies involve more violent crimes, the 31 felonies that permit holders were convicted of equal only 0.077% of violent crimes. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 56 Appendix of some academic research showing that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime John R. Lott, Jr. and David B. Mustard, Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns, Journal of Legal Studies, 1997. William Alan Bartley and Mark A Cohen, The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis, Economic Inquiry, April 1998. (Copy available here) Stephen G. Bronars and John R. Lott, Jr., Criminal Deterrence, Geographic Spillovers, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns, American Economic Review, May 1998. John R. Lott, Jr., “The Concealed –Handgun Debate,” Journal of Legal Studies, January 1998: 221-243 David Mustard, The Impact of Gun Laws on Police Deaths, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. Bruce L. Benson and Brent D. Mast, Privately Produced General Deterrence, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. Florenz Plassmann and T. Nicolaus Tideman, Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes?: Only a Count Analysis Can Say, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. Carlisle E. Moody, Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. David E. Olson and Michael D. Maltz, Right-to-Carry Concealed Weapon Laws and Homicide in Large U.S. Counties: The Effect on Weapon Types, Victim Characteristics, and Victim-Offender Relationships, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. Thomas B. Marvell, The Impact of Banning Juvenile Gun Possession, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001. John R. Lott, Jr. and John E. Whitley, Safe-Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001 John R. Lott, Jr. and John E. Whitley, Measurement Error in County-Level UCR Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 57 Data, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, June 2003, Volume 19, Issue 2, pp 185198 Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, Stanford Law Review, 2003 Eric Helland and Alexander Tabarrok, Using Placebo Laws to Test “More Guns, Less Crime,” Advances in Economic Analysis and Policy, 4 (1): Article 1, 2004. John R. Lott, Jr. and William Landes, Multiple Victim Public Shootings, Bombings, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handgun Laws: Contrasting Private and Public Law Enforcement, published in The Bias Against Guns (2003). Florenz Plassmann and John R. Lott, Jr., More Readers of Gun Magazines, But Not More Crimes. John R Lott, Jr., “More Guns, Less Crime” (University of Chicago Press 2010, 3rd edition). Carlisle E. Moody, Thomas B. Marvell, Paul R Zimmerman, and Fasil Alemante, “The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws,” Review of Economics & Finance 2014 Mark Gius, “An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates,” Applied Economics Letters, Volume 21, Issue 4 2014 Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, “The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws,” Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here. Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, “The Debate on Shall Issue Laws, Continued,” Econ Journal Watch, Volume 6, Number 2 May 2009 Carlisle E. Moody, Thomas B. Marvell, and John R. Lott, Jr., “Did John Lott Provide Bad Data to the NRC? A Note on Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang,” Econ Journal Watch, Volume 10, Number 1, January 2013 Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, “On the Choice of Control Variables in the Crime Equation” by Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 72, Issue 5, pages 696–715, October 2010. John R. Lott, Jr., More Guns, Less Crime: A Response to Ayres and Donohue’s 1999 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 58 book review in the American Law and Economics Review, Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 247, 1999. John R. Lott, Jr., Right-to-Carry Laws and Violent Crime Revisited: Clustering, Measurement Error, and State-by-State Break downs, American Enterprise Institute Working paper, 2004. John R. Lott, Jr., Comment on 'The Deterrence of Crime Through Private Security Efforts: Theory and Evidence', Crime Prevention Research Center, November 2014. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 59 Academic advisory board William M. Landes is the Clifton R. Musser Professor Emeritus of Law and Economics, and Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. Mr. Landes has written widely on the application of economics and quantitative methods to law and legal institutions, including multiple victim public shootings, hijacking of airplanes, and the bail system. Landes has been an editor of the Journal of Law and Economics (1975–1991) and the Journal of Legal Studies (1991–2000), is past president of the American Law and Economics Association, and is a member of the American Economic Association, the Mont Pelerin Society, and the Council of Economic Advisers of the American Enterprise Institute. He is also a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. J. Scott Armstrong is a professor at the Wharton Business School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. Most recently, his research activities have involved forecasting for terrorism and conflicts. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, structured analogies, and the “index method.” In addition to forecasting, Professor Armstrong has published papers on survey research, educational methods, applied statistics, social responsibility, strategic planning, and scientific peer review. Arthur Z. Berg, M.D. is a Distinguished Life Fellow of the American Psychiatric Association and former member of the APA Violence Task Force. He was founding Psychiatrist-in-Chief at Beverly Hospital (emeritus) and former Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. A recent article that Dr. Berg had in the Wall Street Journal on multiple victim public shootings is available here. Tim Groseclose is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA. He holds appointments in the political science and economics departments at the university. In 1987, he received his B.S. in Mathematical Sciences from Stanford University. In 1992, he received his PhD from Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. He is the author of over two dozen scholarly articles as well as the book Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind. Given the extensive media bias on guns, Professor Groseclose’s expertise on identifying media bias will be important. He contributes to the blog, www.Ricochet.com, and Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 60 is an active tweeter at @Tim_Groseclose (https://twitter.com/Tim_Groseclose). You can learn more about him and his writings at www.timgroseclose.com. Jonathan M. Karpoff is the Washington Mutual Endowed Chair in Innovation Professor of Finance at the University of Washington Foster School of Business. Karpoff has published pathbreaking research on the topics of corporate crime and punishment as well as corporate governance. He is the associate editor for the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Management Science, Managerial and Decision Sciences, and The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. He has received a long list of academic awards. Joyce Lee Malcolm is the Patrick Henry Professor of Constitutional Law and the Second Amendment at George Mason University Law School. She has a Ph.D. in history and is internationally known for her books Guns and Violence: The English Experience, Harvard University Press (November 24, 2004), and To Keep and Bear Arms: The Origins of an Anglo-American Right, Harvard University Press (March 2, 1996). Guns and Violence provides a comprehensive history and examination of changes in murder rates in England from the middle ages to the current day. She is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, and she has held positions at Princeton University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Cambridge University. Malcolm also served as the Director, Division of Research Programs for the National Endowment for the Humanities during 2005-2006. Scott E. Masten is Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy in the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross School of Business, where he has been a faculty member since 1984. A leading scholar in the area of transaction cost economics, Professor Masten’s research focuses on issues at the intersection of law, economics, and organization. In addition to his primary appointment, he has held appointments as the Louis and Myrtle Moskowitz Research Professor in Business and Law at Michigan, John M. Olin Faculty Research Fellow at Yale Law School, John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor of Law at the University of Virginia Law School, and Visiting Professor in the University of Michigan Law School. He was President of the International Society for New Institutional Economics in 2008-09, is a co-editor of the Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, and serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Law, Economics & Organization and Managerial and Decision Economics Carl Moody, Professor of Economics, William & Mary. Professor Moody has published extensively on the relationships between guns, crime and Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904 61 imprisonment in such academic journals as Criminology, Homicide Studies, the Journal of Law and Economics, the Journal of Legal Studies, and the Journal of Quantitative Criminology. He teaches mathematical economics and econometrics. Paul H. Rubin is the Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Economics at Emory University, and Editor in Chief of Managerial and Decision Economics. He has been president of the Southern Economic Association. His research interests have included crime, the death penalty, and gun control. He received his B.A. from the University of Cincinnati in 1963 and his Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1970. He is a Fellow of the Public Choice Society, a Senior Fellow at the Progress and Freedom Foundation, an Adjunct Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, and former Vice President of the Southern Economics Association. Dr. Rubin has been Senior Staff Economist at President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, Chief Economist at the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, Director of Advertising Economics at the Federal Trade Commission, and vice-president of Glassman-Oliver Economic Consultants, Inc., a litigation consulting firm in Washington. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3233904