Methodology The University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office (SRO) is dedicated to the principles of transparency in research and is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative. Membership entails adherence to AAPOR’s code of ethics as well as a commitment to promoting understanding of survey methodology and how it relates to survey quality. For more information about project methodology please contact the UIS Survey Research Office at sro@uis.edu. The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey was designed and analyzed by the staff of the Center for State Policy and Leadership, the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies and the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. This project is co-sponsored by the Center for State Policy and Leadership, NPR Illinois and the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies at the University of Illinois Springfield. The study was conducted in English by the Survey Research Office via the Qualtrics Research Suite. The online panel was provided by Qualtrics. The survey was fielded from September 13-September 23, 2019 among a sample of 1012 registered voters, all at least 18 years or older, in Illinois. For all respondents the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5. While a margin of error is often used to express uncertainty in polling, for online surveys credibility intervals are used to measure the accuracy, or uncertainty, of the survey. When examining subgroups, the credibility interval will increase. The survey includes quotas for gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and region of the state. The sample was weighted based the demographic composition of these groups in Illinois using the most recent population estimates provided by the US Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey. For additional information weighting please click here. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Page 1 The survey included various checks to ensure the validity of the data collected from respondents. Click here for an extended explanation for all the checks Qualtrics does for their panels. Notes for reading the results: – Percentages may not always add up to 100 percent due to rounding. – Values less than 0.5 percent are indicated by an asterisk (*). Survey Sample Compared to Illinois Group Male Female Weighted Sample Illinois 48% 49% 52% 51% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 24% 18% 29% 29% 24% 18% 29% 29% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 40% 25% 35% 40% 25% 35% White Black Hispanic Other 62% 14% 13% 10% 62% 14% 17% 7% High School Diploma or Less Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 31% 33% 36% 34% 32% 34% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 46% 30% 24% 46% 30% 24% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 53% 15% 30% Page 2 Despite Increased Optimism and a Positive Evaluation of the Governor, More Illinois Voters Say They’ve Considered Moving Out of the State Illinois voters are more optimistic about the direction of the state compared to 2018 according to the latest Illinois Issues Survey conducted by the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. Compared to the 2018 edition of this survey (14%), twice as many respondents (28%) in 2019 describe Illinois as heading in the right direction. Nearly three in ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (29%) and Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents (31%) say the state is heading in the right direction compared to less than one-fifth (17%) of non-leaning independents. There is a slight variation across the different regions of the state. Nearly three in ten respondents living in Cook County (29%) and downstate (29%) say Illinois is on the right track compared to slightly under a quarter (24%) of voters in the collar counties. Men (32%) and women (24%) differ in beliefs about whether Illinois is heading in the right direction. There is also variation across age, with those respondents ages 18 to 34 (36%) the most likely to report Illinois as heading in the right direction and those ages 45 to 59 (24%) least likely. When it comes to race and ethnicity, Black respondents (35%) are most likely to report Illinois is heading in the right direction and white respondents (25%) least likely. In 2018, 15% of respondents described the economy of Illinois as “excellent” or “good.” In 2019, this has risen to 23%. While nearly a quarter of voters in Cook County (24%) and the collar counties (24%) rate the economy “excellent” or “good,” slightly less (21%) of downstate voters do. A quarter (26%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents describe the economy of Illinois as “excellent” or “good.” A similar percentage of Republican and Republican-leaning independents (24%) do as well. Interestingly, non-leaning independents are not as favorable, as less than one in five (19%) of non-leaning independents have a positive assessment of the Illinois economy. There is a difference between men (28%) and women (19%) rating the economy as “excellent” or “good.” Respondents ages 18 to 34 (31%) are the most likely age group to evaluate the economy as “excellent” or “good”, while respondents ages 60 and older (17%) are least likely. Black respondents (39%) are nearly twice as like as white (21%) respondents to rate the economy as “excellent” or “good.” Similar rates of respondents think Illinois will be better off in twelve months (29%) as worse off (30%). 41% think the state will be the same. There is a sizeable partisan difference in this assessment. Four in ten (40%) Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think Illinois will be better off. In comparison, less than one-fifth (17%) of Republicans and Republicanleaning independents are as optimistic. Approximately one-fifth (19%) of non-leaning independents think Illinois will be better off in twelve months. There is also variation across the regions of the state, though it is not as dramatic as partisan differences. One-third (33%) of Cook County voters think Illinois will be better off in twelve months. Just under three in ten (28%) downstate voters and less than a quarter (24%) of collar county voters think the state will be better off. Respondents ages 18 to 34 (43%) are the most likely age group to report optimism about where Illinois will be in twelve months and those ages 45 to 59 (22%) are the least likely. Black respondents (39%) have higher rates of respondents reporting Illinois will be better off in twelve months compared to other racial and ethnic groups, while white respondents (25%) are the least optimistic. Page 3 In 2018, a bit over half (53%) of respondents said they had considered moving out of Illinois in the previous 12 months. In 2019, this has risen to slightly more than six in ten (61%). Survey responses reflect a substantial partisan difference. 70% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they have considered moving out of Illinois. This result compares to just over half (53%) of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents. Splitting the difference are nearly two-thirds (64%) of non-leaning independents who say they’ve considered moving out of the state. 59% of voters in Cook County have said they considered moving out of Illinois compared to 63% of those in the collar counties and 61% of those in the downstate region. Respondents ages 18 to 34 (69%) are the most common age group to say they’ve considered moving out of Illinois in the past year. Respondents reporting a household income of more than $100,000 a year (68%) are nearly ten percentage points higher than other income groups to say they’ve considered moving out of the state, with those reporting a household income lower than $45,000 (58%) being least likely.. While a majority of voters say they have considered moving out of Illinois, far fewer report having taken steps to do so. Over a quarter of respondents who have considered moving out of Illinois say they’ve looked up the cost of living in another state (28%) and looked at housing in a new state (26%). However, only 2% have submitted paperwork to rent or buy housing in a new state. Further, 16% of respondents who have considered moving have looked at jobs elsewhere, but only 5% report applying for jobs. The three most common reasons cited for moving by voters who have considered leaving the state are lower state taxes (27%), state government policies (17%), and better weather (15%). Over a quarter of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say lower state taxes (27%) and state government policies (26%) are why they’ve considered leaving. Coming in third for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is better weather at 14%. For Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents lower state taxes (26%), better weather (16%), and better job opportunities (15%) are the top three motivations. For non-leaning independents, lower state taxes (27%), better job opportunities (14%), and lower crime (13%) are the three primary reasons given. While there is some notable partisan variation in motivations for leaving the state, all three partisan groups are similar on state taxes, Republicans and Democrats are similar on weather, and Democrats and non-leaning independents are similar on job opportunities. The most likely group to say they have considered leaving Illinois over better job opportunities are respondents ages 18 to 34 (17%). The most likely group to cite better weather as their reason is respondents ages 60 and older (20%). The group most likely to cite lower state taxes as their motivation is respondents ages 45 to 59 (30%). Black respondents (20%) are most likely to cite lower crime as their motivation for considering moving out of Illinois. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are most likely to cite state government policies as their reasoning (26%). For all respondents who say they have considered moving out of Illinois, Florida (10%), Indiana (8%), Texas (8%), Tennessee (6%), and California (6%) are the top five most-cited destinations. Respondents could offer up to three states in their response. Florida, Indiana, and Texas are consistently three of the top five destinations when we look at variation across partisanship and region of the state. For Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Tennessee and Arizona round out their top five. As for Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, it is Page 4 California and Colorado. Non-leaning independents are a combination of the partisan groups, as it is California and Arizona. The top five for Cook County are Florida, Texas, Indiana, California, and Arizona. For the collar counties, the top five are Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Indiana. Downstate voters selected Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee for their top five. Lastly, 59% of voters approve of the way Governor Pritzker is handling his job. Unsurprisingly, there is a partisan slant to assessments of Governor Pritzker. While 79% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents approve of the job Governor Pritzker is doing, just 32% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do. 49% of non-leaning independents approve of Governor Pritzker. When looking across the regions of Illinois, 69% of Cook County voters, 56% of collar county voters, and 51% of downstate voters approve of Governor Pritzker. Women (63%) are more likely than men (55%) to approve of Governor Pritzker. White voters (50%) are less likely than voters from Illinois’ minority communities to approve of the job Governor Pritzker is doing. For example, 83% of Black respondents report approving of the job Governor Pritzker is doing. Voters ages 18 to 34 (64%) are the most likely age group to approve of the job Governor Pritzker is doing with voters ages 45 to 59 (53%) least likely. Page 5 Crosstabs Generally speaking, would you say that things in Illinois are heading in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group All Respondents Right Direction 28% Wrong Track 56% Can’t Say 16% Male Female 32% 24% 54% 58% 13% 18% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 36% 28% 24% 25% 44% 55% 64% 59% 20% 17% 12% 16% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 29% 24% 29% 53% 60% 57% 17% 16% 14% White Black Hispanic Other 25% 35% 31% 31% 59% 47% 55% 50% 16% 18% 14% 19% High School Diploma or Less Between a HS Diploma and FourYear Degree Four-Year Degree or More 30% 50% 20% 22% 64% 14% 33% 54% 14% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 30% 26% 24% 51% 61% 60% 18% 13% 16% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 31% 51% 19% 17% 62% 21% 29% 62% 9% Page 6 How would you describe the economy of Illinois today? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group All Respondents Net Excellent/ Good 23% Male Female Excellent Good Fair Poor 4% 19% 39% 38% 28% 19% 5% 3% 23% 16% 37% 41% 36% 40% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 31% 26% 21% 17% 10% 2% 2% 2% 21% 24% 19% 15% 36% 35% 37% 44% 32% 38% 42% 39% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 24% 24% 21% 4% 3% 4% 20% 21% 17% 43% 34% 38% 33% 42% 41% White Black Hispanic Other 21% 39% 23% 27% 3% 6% 2% 8% 18% 23% 21% 19% 36% 47% 41% 43% 42% 24% 36% 30% High School Diploma or Less 26% 3% 23% 39% 35% Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 22% 2% 20% 33% 44% 23% 7% 16% 44% 34% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 25% 23% 21% 5% 4% 3% 20% 19% 18% 41% 38% 36% 34% 40% 43% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 26% 19% 24% 4% 4% 5% 22% 15% 19% 43% 43% 30% 32% 38% 46% Page 7 Twelve months from now, do you expect Illinois to be better off than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group All Respondents Better Off Same As Today Worse Off 29% 41% 30% Male Female 30% 28% 39% 43% 31% 28% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 43% 26% 22% 26% 36% 44% 41% 42% 21% 30% 36% 31% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 33% 24% 28% 44% 39% 39% 22% 37% 33% White Black Hispanic Other 25% 39% 37% 35% 42% 44% 41% 32% 34% 17% 23% 33% High School Diploma or Less 29% 45% 25% Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree 27% 39% 34% Four-Year Degree or More 33% 39% 28% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 32% 24% 30% 42% 41% 37% 25% 35% 33% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 40% 19% 17% 42% 50% 34% 18% 31% 49% Page 8 In the past year, have you considered moving out of Illinois? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group All Respondents Yes No 61% 39% Male Female 60% 40% 61% 39% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older Cook County Collar Counties Downstate White Black Hispanic Other High School Diploma or Less 69% 60% 65% 50% 31% 40% 35% 50% 59% 41% 63% 37% 61% 39% 60% 64% 62% 55% 40% 36% 38% 45% 56% 46% Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree 63% 37% Four-Year Degree or More 63% 37% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 58% 42% 59% 41% 68% 32% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 53% 47% 64% 36% 70% 30% Page 9 (Asked only if they said yes to considering moving out of Illinois) As part of considering moving out of Illinois, which of the following actions have you done? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group All Respondents Looked at Jobs in a New State 16% Applied for Jobs in a New State 5% Looked at Housing in a New State 26% Applied for Housing in a New State 2% Male Female 18% 14% 6% 4% 27% 25% 2% 2% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 22% 18% 18% 2% 8% 6% 4% 1% 21% 26% 25% 35% 3% 2% 1% 2% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 15% 15% 16% 6% 4% 5% 25% 29% 24% 2% 1% 2% White Black Hispanic Other 16% 18% 15% 9% 4% 7% 4% 7% 25% 24% 30% 27% 2% 3% 2% 4% High School Diploma or Less Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 13% 5% 23% 2% 15% 3% 28% 3% 16% 7% 28% 2% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 15% 16% 15% 6% 3% 6% 23% 25% 30% 2% 2% 1% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 16% 6% 25% 2% 14% 15% 3% 5% 26% 27% 3% 2% Page 10 As part of considering moving out of Illinois, which of the following actions have you done?– Continued Group Looked up the Cost of Living in a New State Looked up the Cost of Moving to a New State All Respondents 28% 15% Told Friends or Family You Were Moving to a New State 9% Male Female 28% 28% 14% 16% 7% 10% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 25% 24% 28% 36% 15% 18% 15% 12% 7% 7% 10% 11% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 27% 30% 27% 15% 12% 18% 9% 9% 8% White Black Hispanic Other 29% 26% 24% 25% 16% 12% 13% 18% 8% 10% 11% 8% High School Diploma or Less Between a HS Diploma and FourYear Degree Four-Year Degree or More 28% 18% 13% 28% 14% 9% 28% 13% 7% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 27% 30% 27% 18% 14% 13% 9% 9% 8% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 27% 15% 9% 28% 16% 11% 29% 15% 7% Page 11 If so, please choose which of the following reasons you personally have considered moving out of Illinois (Please select up to three options below). Totals do not add up to 100% due respondents selecting up to three options. Group All Respondents Job Opportunities 12% Better Weather 15% Lower State Taxes 27% Male Female 14% 14% 14% 15% 26% 26% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 17% 15% 14% 2% 14% 12% 13% 20% 24% 25% 30% 27% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 14% 9% 17% 15% 15% 13% 25% 28% 25% White Black Hispanic Other 12% 17% 17% 12% 14% 14% 13% 18% 28% 21% 27% 18% High School Diploma or Less 14% 10% 23% Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 12% 15% 27% 13% 19% 25% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 17% 11% 11% 14% 13% 16% 24% 27% 28% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 15% 14% 8% 16% 12% 14% 26% 27% 27% Page 12 If so, please choose which of the following reasons you personally have considered moving out of Illinois. (Continued) Group Better Schools Lower Crime State Government and Policies 13% Family or Personal Reasons 8% All Respondents 6% Male Female 6% 8% 11% 14% 8% 8% 19% 14% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 10% 8% 5% 1% 11% 12% 13% 17% 10% 12% 13% 16% 14% 18% 17% 22% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 7% 5% 8% 17% 13% 7% 8% 7% 9% 12% 20% 19% White Black Hispanic Other 6% 9% 8% 11% 10% 20% 16% 13% 7% 8% 6% 13% 20% 9% 13% 13% High School Diploma or Less 8% 17% 8% 16% Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 8% 14% 8% 14% 7% 13% 6% 16% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 9% 7% 5% 13% 12% 12% 10% 8% 4% 12% 19% 21% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Non-Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 6% 7% 5% 15% 13% 11% 9% 9% 6% 12% 13% 26% 17% Page 13 What other state or states have you considered moving to? (Please select up to three states) Option Percentage Option Percentage Florida 10% Alaska * Indiana 8% Connecticut * Texas 8% Delaware * Arizona 6% Idaho * California 6% Maine * Tennessee 6% Nebraska * Colorado 5% New Hampshire * Wisconsin 5% North Dakota * Georgia 4% Pennsylvania * Missouri 4% Rhode Island * Iowa 3% South Dakota * Kentucky 3% Utah * Michigan 3% Vermont * Nevada 3% West Virginia * North Carolina 3% Wyoming * Alabama 2% Alaska * Minnesota 2% Connecticut * New York 2% Delaware * Arkansas 1% Idaho * Hawaii 1% Maine * Kansas 1% Nebraska * Louisiana 1% New Hampshire * Maryland 1% North Dakota * Massachusetts 1% Pennsylvania * Mississippi 1% Rhode Island * Montana 1% South Dakota * New Jersey 1% Utah * New Mexico 1% Vermont * Ohio 1% West Virginia * Oklahoma 1% Wyoming * Oregon 1% South Carolina 1% Virginia 1% Washington 1% Page 14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way JB Pritzker is handling his job as Governor? (Rows may not total up to 100% due to rounding) Group Approve Net Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Disapprove Net Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Male Female 55% 63% 19% 14% 36% 49% 46% 37% 22% 22% 24% 15% 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 and Older 64% 58% 53% 59% 20% 14% 18% 12% 46% 44% 35% 47% 34% 42% 46% 41% 23% 23% 24% 17% 11% 19% 22% 24% Cook County Collar Counties Downstate 69% 56% 51% 19% 13% 16% 50% 43% 35% 32% 44% 49% 20% 22% 23% 12% 22% 26% White Black Hispanic Other 50% 83% 71% 69% 13% 29% 19% 19% 37% 54% 52% 50% 50% 17% 28% 31% 24% 15% 19% 18% 26% 2% 9% 13% High School Diploma or Less Between a HS Diploma and Four-Year Degree Four-Year Degree or More 61% 17% 44% 39% 25% 14% 60% 17% 43% 40% 20% 20% 65% 17% 48% 35% 18% 17% Under $45,000 $45,001 and $100,000 Greater than $100,001 64% 54% 56% 20% 13% 14% 44% 41% 42% 36% 46% 44% 20% 22% 24% 16% 24% 20% Democrat/Democrat Leaning Independent Republican/Republican Leaning 79% 25% 54% 22% 16% 6% 49% 32% 6% 8% 43% 24% 51% 48% 29% 27% 21% 41% All Respondents 59% 16% 43% 41% 22% 19% Page 15