National Construction
Pipeline Report 2019
A forecast of Building and Construction activity   7th Edition

Funded by:

 __________
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Published August 2019
By Ministry of Business,
Innovation and Employment
15 Stout Street
PO Box 1473
Wellington 6140
More information:
www.mbie.govt.nz
0800 20 90 20
ISBN: 978-1-99-000407-0 (print)
ISBN: 978-1-99-000406-3 (online)

____________________________________________

© CROWN COPYRIGHT 2019
The material contained in this report is subject to Crown copyright protection unless otherwise indicated. The
Crown copyright protected material may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without
requiring specific permission. This is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used
in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. Where the material is published or issued to others, the
source and copyright status should be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce Crown copyright
protected material does not extend to any material in this report that is identified as being the copyright of a
third party. Authorisation to reproduce such material should be obtained from the copyright holders.

 Contents
FIGURES AND TABLES .......................................................................................................... II
1.
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 1
Overview ................................................................................................................... 1
Purpose and content ................................................................................................ 1
Understanding the graphs and data ......................................................................... 2
2.
KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................ 3
Construction activity growth is forecast to continue through to 2021 .................... 3
Residential activity in Auckland is forecast to continue to grow.............................. 4
Non-residential building activity is forecast to peak in 2021 ................................... 4
Infrastructure activity is forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023 ...... 5
3.
NATIONAL FORECAST ................................................................................................. 6
National construction, by value ................................................................................ 6
National construction, by activity ............................................................................. 7
National residential building, by dwelling number .................................................. 7
Residential dwelling types ........................................................................................ 8
National non-residential building ............................................................................. 9
Types of non-residential building projects ............................................................. 10
Project initiators for non-residential building, by sector........................................ 11
National infrastructure activity............................................................................... 12
Types of infrastructure construction ...................................................................... 13
Project initiators for infrastructure projects, by sector.......................................... 14
Regional comparisons ............................................................................................. 15
4.
REGIONAL FORECAST ............................................................................................... 19
Auckland ................................................................................................................. 19
Canterbury .............................................................................................................. 23
Waikato/Bay of Plenty ............................................................................................ 26
Wellington .............................................................................................................. 29
Rest of New Zealand ............................................................................................... 32
5.
COMPARISON WITH THE NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE REPORT 2018............. 36
Adjustments to data from the 2018 report ............................................................ 36
How did BRANZ do with the 2018 forecast? .......................................................... 36
Comparison of Pacifecon’s 2019 research data with previous reports .................. 39
Comparison of previous reports’ project intentions with project outcomes ......... 40
Construction intentions and optimism bias ........................................................... 41
6.
DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................................. 42
7.
APPENDICES ............................................................................................................. 43
Appendix A: About the parties involved in preparing this report .......................... 43
Appendix B: Terminology, abbreviations and definitions used in this report ........ 44
Appendix C: Methodology, data, statistics and assumptions used in this report .. 46
Appendix D: Projects likely to start within the year valued over $100m ............... 49
Appendix E: Forecast and known table .................................................................. 51
Appendix F: Residential dwelling consents actual and forecast data table ........... 52
i

 Figures and tables
Figure 1.3.1 Example graph .......................................................................................................................... 2
Figure 2.1.1 All building and construction nationally, by value .................................................................... 3
Figure 2.2.1 Value of residential buildings, by region .................................................................................. 4
Figure 2.3.1 Non-residential building activity nationally .............................................................................. 4
Figure 2.4.1 Infrastructure activity nationally .............................................................................................. 5
Figure 3.1.1 All construction nationally, by value ........................................................................................ 6
Figure 3.2.1 All construction nationally, by activity ..................................................................................... 7
Figure 3.3.1 Dwelling units consented nationally......................................................................................... 7
Figure 3.4.1 Dwellings units consented nationally by dwelling type ............................................................ 8
Figure 3.5.1 Non-residential building activity nationally .............................................................................. 9
Figure 3.6.1 Non-residential building types anticipated to start in 2019, by number and value ............... 10
Figure 3.7.1 Non-residential building intentions, by sector initiator and start date .................................. 11
Figure 3.8.1 Infrastructure activity nationally ............................................................................................ 12
Figure 3.9.1 Infrastructure project types anticipated to start in 2019, by number and value ................... 13
Figure 3.10.1 Project initiators for infrastructure projects, by sector ........................................................ 14
Figure 3.11.1 Value of total building and construction, by region ............................................................. 15
Figure 3.11.2 Value of residential buildings, by region .............................................................................. 16
Figure 3.11.3 Value of non-residential building, by region ........................................................................ 17
Figure 3.11.4 Value of infrastructure activity, by region ............................................................................ 18
Figure 4.1.1 All construction in Auckland, by value.................................................................................... 19
Figure 4.1.2 Dwelling units in Auckland, 1994 to 2024 .............................................................................. 20
Figure 4.1.3 Dwelling units in Auckland ..................................................................................................... 20
Figure 4.1.4 Auckland non-residential building activity ............................................................................. 21
Figure 4.1.5 Auckland infrastructure activity ............................................................................................. 22
Figure 4.2.1 All construction in Canterbury, by value ................................................................................ 23
Figure 4.2.2 Dwelling units in Canterbury .................................................................................................. 24
Figure 4.2.3 Canterbury non-residential building activity .......................................................................... 24
Figure 4.2.4 Canterbury infrastructure activity .......................................................................................... 25
Figure 4.3.1 All construction in Waikato/Bay of Plenty, by value .............................................................. 26
Figure 4.3.2 Dwelling units in Waikato/Bay of Plenty ................................................................................ 27
Figure 4.3.3 Waikato/Bay of Plenty non-residential building activity ........................................................ 28
Figure 4.3.4 Waikato/Bay of Plenty infrastructure activity ........................................................................ 28
Figure 4.4.1 All construction in Wellington, by value ................................................................................. 29
Figure 4.4.2 Dwelling units in Wellington ................................................................................................... 30
Figure 4.4.3 Wellington non-residential building activity .......................................................................... 30
Figure 4.4.4 Wellington infrastructure activity .......................................................................................... 31
Figure 4.5.1 All construction in Rest of New Zealand, by value ................................................................. 32
Figure 4.5.2 Dwelling units in Rest of New Zealand ................................................................................... 33
Figure 4.5.3 Rest of New Zealand non-residential building activity ........................................................... 33
Figure 4.5.4 Rest of New Zealand infrastructure activity ........................................................................... 34
Figure 5.2.1 All construction nationally, last four years of forecasts compared ........................................ 36
Figure 5.2.2 All residential building nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared ................................ 37
Figure 5.2.3 Dwelling units consented nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts comparison ......................... 37
Figure 5.2.4 Non-residential building nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared .............................. 38
Figure 5.2.5 Infrastructure activity nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared ................................. 38
Figure 5.3.1 Value of all Pacifecon known non-residential and infrastructure project intentions data, by
report year .................................................................................................................................... 39

ii

 Figure 5.5.1 All non-residential and infrastructure construction intentions, raw (unsmoothed) data ...... 41

Table 4.5.1 All building and construction in the year 31 December 2019 for Rest of New Zealand and
Wellington, by region and construction type ............................................................................... 35
Table 5.4.1 Outcome of projects valued at $100 million and over anticipated to start in the current year
across the current and previous reports....................................................................................... 40
Table 7.4.1 Non-residential building projects likely to start within the year valued at over $100m ......... 49
Table 7.4.2 Infrastructure projects likely to start within the year valued at over $100m .......................... 50
Table 7.5.1 Forecast and known data ($ billions) by region – annual totals .............................................. 51
Table 7.6.1 Residential dwelling numbers actual consented and forecast, by region – annual totals ...... 52

iii

 1.

Introduction
Overview

The National Construction Pipeline Report 2019 (the report) was commissioned by the Ministry of
Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and jointly prepared by BRANZ and Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd
(Pacifecon). It projects building activity for the next six years, ending 31 December 2024. It includes
national and regional1 breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential
building and infrastructure activity. The report is based on building and construction forecasts from
BRANZ and Pacifecon data on researched non-residential building and infrastructure intentions2.

Purpose and content
The report aims to provide awareness of the expected pipeline of building and construction work to
support:
•
•
•

planning by all participants in the sector
scheduling of investment in skills and capital to meet the future needs of the sector
coordination of construction procurement (particularly central and local government) to
enable improved scheduling of construction projects.

Improvements in these areas could help moderate the boom-bust cycles that have negatively
impacted productivity, innovation, employment, skill levels and quality in the construction sector.
In this report, building and construction is split into three activity types:
•
•
•

residential building – detached and multi-unit dwellings.
non-residential building – structures of a building type (vertical) other than residential,
including hotels, offices, retail outlets and industrial buildings.
infrastructure – structures of a non-building type (horizontal), such as roads, subdivisions
and civil works. Infrastructure projects do not typically require a building consent.

The report includes:
•
•
•
•

a summary of the report’s key findings
national and regional forecasts of residential buildings, non-residential buildings and
infrastructure activity
a comparison of this year’s forecasts against last year’s
appendices, including tables of forecast and research data.

Queries and feedback can be emailed to info@building.govt.nz
1

The regional areas reported are Auckland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Canterbury and Rest of New
Zealand (which includes all other regions not stated).
2
See section 7.3 for more information on forecast and research data.

1

 Understanding the graphs and data
Different types of graphs are used in this report to illustrate relevant information. The key features
of the graphs are discussed below using the following example.
Figure 1.3.1 Example graph

•
•
•
•

•
•

•

Values are in constant December 2018 dollars and are expressed in $billions (b) per quarter
or per year, unless otherwise stated. Inflation has been removed from all dollar values
Forecast refers to forecast data from BRANZ.
Research refers to construction project intentions data provided by Pacifecon.
Actuals are the actual values or activity from official statistics. The year beginning January
2018 is used as the base year for the actual data in the report. A vertical line on the graphs
indicates the start of a forecast. Actuals are to the left of the vertical line and are generally
shown in a faded colour shade.
Years are calendar years – the 12 months beginning January.
Quarters refer to parts of the calendar year as follows:
o Q1 = 1 January to 31 March.
o Q2 = 1 April to 30 June.
o Q3 = 1 July to 30 September.
o Q4 = 1 October to 31 December.
Where rolling years are used, each point on the graph represents the total of the 12 months
immediately preceding that point – for example, 2019 Q2 represents July 2018 through to
June 2019.

A glossary of key terms is presented in section 7.2.

2

 2.

Key findings

This section discusses the major findings in the report:
•
•
•
•

Construction activity growth is forecast to continue through to 2021.
Residential building activity in Auckland is forecast to continue to grow.
Non-residential building activity is forecast to peak in 2021.
Infrastructure activity is forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023.

Construction activity growth is forecast to continue through to 2021
This year’s report returns to forecasting a peak in total construction value at $43b in 2021.3 This has
been driven by an anticipated levelling out of residential activity from 2020 onwards as well as a
tailing off of non-residential activity in 2021.

$Billions/year

Figure 2.1.1 All building and construction nationally, by value

$43

$45

$42

$40
$35
$30

$27

$25
$20
$15
$9

$10

$8.3

$5
$0
90

92

94

96

98

Residential building

00

02

04

06

08

10

Non-residential building

12

14

16

18

Infrastructure

20

22

24

Total

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon/Stats NZ

3

The National Construction Pipeline Report 2018 was the first to forecast moderate sustained growth
throughout the forecast period.

3

 Residential activity in Auckland is forecast to continue to grow
Nationally, residential activity is forecast to level out from 2020 onwards. However, Auckland bucks
this trend, with strong growth in residential activity forecast throughout the forecast period. Last
year, the value of residential activity in Auckland was $8.8b. This is forecast to reach $12.2b by the
end of the forecast period, 39% above 2018 levels.
$billions/quarter

Figure 2.2.1 Value of residential buildings, by region

$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Auckland

Rest of NZ

Waikato/BoP

Canterbury

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.0

Wellington
Source: BRANZ

Non-residential building activity is forecast to peak in 2021
Non-residential activity is forecast to peak in 2021 at just over $9b, an increase of 3.7% over current
levels. Activity is then forecast to fall away, falling 20% from the 2021 peak by the end of the
forecast period to $7.2b.

$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 2.3.1 Non-residential building activity nationally

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

4

 Infrastructure activity is forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023
Infrastructure activity has not exceeded non-residential activity since 2013. Sustained growth in
infrastructure activity combined with a decrease in non-residential activity has led to infrastructure
activity forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023.

$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 2.4.1 Infrastructure activity nationally

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

5

 3.

National forecast

This section includes national forecasts for each activity type as well as:
•
•

a breakdown of non-residential building and infrastructure research data by type and
initiator
regional comparisons.

National construction, by value
New Zealand’s total construction value increased by 5% in 2018 to $39b. This year’s forecast is for
continued growth in the value of construction to $43b in 2021. Post this peak in 2021, the forecast is
for a slight tailing off in construction value to $42b in 2024.

$Billions/year

Figure 3.1.1 All construction nationally, by value

$43

$45

$42

$40
$35
$30

$27

$25
$20
$15
$9

$10

$8.3

$5
$0
90

92

94

96

98

Residential building

00

02

04

06

08

10

Non-residential building

12

14

16

18

Infrastructure

20

22

24

Total

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon/Stats NZ

6

 National construction, by activity
Residential buildings are the largest contributor to national construction. Residential buildings
contributed 58% of total construction value in 2018. Residential buildings are expected to grow
moderately through the forecast period to $26.8b in 2023. Non-residential building (22% of current
total value) is expected to peak in 2021 at $9b. Infrastructure activity (20% of total current value) is
forecast to moderately increase throughout the forecast period to $8.3b in 2024.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 3.2.1 All construction nationally, by activity

$50
Total

$45
$40
$35

Residential building

$30
$25
$20
$15

Infrastructure

$10
$5
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

24 Q1

Non-residential
building

$0

Source: BRANZ

National residential building, by dwelling number
Multi-unit dwellings accounted for 36% of all dwellings consented in 2018. We anticipate this to
increase to 41% of all residential dwellings in 2024. Nationwide, dwelling consents increased by 6%
in 2018 over 2017 and are forecast to increase by a further 9% in 2019. The forecast is for 224,500
new dwellings to be consented over the next six years, an average of over 37,000 per year.

number/quarter

Figure 3.3.1 Dwelling units consented nationally4

12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

0

Multi-units

Source: BRANZ

4

A table of annual total dwelling units, actual and forecast, is provided in section 7.6.

7

 Residential dwelling types
Analysis of historical consent data for the number of different types of dwellings has been
undertaken this year. Stats NZ group dwelling consent data into four types:
•
•
•
•

detached dwellings - any stand-alone dwelling that is not attached to any other unit
townhouses - all dwellings that are attached horizontally to another dwelling unit
apartments - any dwelling unit that is attached to another dwelling unit above or below it or
is part of a commercial building
retirement units - all retirement village units from detached houses to apartments and
rooms

Detached dwellings (houses) are the most common type of new dwelling in New Zealand and have
remained well above the levels of the other types of dwellings. Detached dwellings peaked most
recently in 2004 at just under 24,000 dwellings. In 2018, just over 21,000 detached dwellings were
consented, 1.5 times the amount consented in 2012.
Townhouses are the next most common type of dwelling, and since 2005 have been consistently
consented in higher numbers than apartments. In 2018, nearly six-times as many townhouses were
consented than were consented in 2012. This was the largest growth of any dwelling type over the
period.
Apartments are typically the densest form of dwelling type. Apartment consents are nearing the
levels of the apartment boom of the early-to-mid-2000s, but have not grown to quite the same
extent as townhouses over the last few years. There were nearly five-times as many apartments
consented in 2018 than in 2012.

Dwelling consents / rolling year

Figure 3.4.1 Dwellings units consented nationally by dwelling type
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
92

94

96

98

Detached dwellings

00

02

04

Townhouses

06

08

Apartments

10

12

14

16

18

Retirement units
Source: Stats NZ

8

 National non-residential building
Non-residential building value nationally is forecast to grow to a peak of $9b in 2021. This is largely
driven by activity in Auckland, which is expected to tail off after 2021. Only Waikato/Bay of Plenty
and Rest of New Zealand are anticipated to have relatively steady non-residential workloads over
the forecast period. The high value in Pacifecon’s researched project data indicates strong national
non-residential building project intentions.

$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.5.1 Non-residential building activity nationally

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

9

 Types of non-residential building projects
Commercial buildings dominate non-residential building work expected to start in the year to
December 2019, contributing 48% of the total number of projects and 59% of total value. Education
has a large number of projects (22% of the total number of projects) but accounts for a similar share
of the total value as industrial buildings (11% of the value for both education buildings and industrial
buildings).
Figure 3.6.1 Non-residential building types anticipated to start in 2019,5 by number and value
Number

Value ($b)

Sport, 331,
9%

Multicategory,
$0.7, 7%

Multi-category,
245, 7%

Industrial,
$1.0, 11%

Industrial, 252, 7%

Health, 276, 7%

Sport, $0.5,
5%

Commercial,
1,749, 48%

Health, $0.6, 7%
Commercial, $5.4,
59%

Education, 824, 22%

Education, $1.0, 11%

Source: Pacifecon

5

Year ending December 2019.

10

 Project initiators for non-residential building, by sector
The private sector is the largest initiator of non-residential building, contributing 65% of the value of
intentions over the forecast period, while central and local government make up 20% and 15%
respectively. New non-residential building intentions for all sectors are forecast to peak through
2020, most markedly for the private sector.
Central and local government-initiated projects continue to benefit from having good long-term
visibility of funding6, which means intentions tend to remain strong throughout the forecast period.
Private sector intentions are more heavily skewed towards the short term due to optimism bias7 and
more variable private funding, which can result in intentions falling away in the medium term as
there is less certainty.

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.7.1 Non-residential building intentions, by sector initiator and start date

$2.5

$2.0

$1.5

$1.0

$0.5

Private

Local government

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

$0.0

Central government
Source: Pacifecon

6
7

Council long-term plans and central government budget statements.
See section 5.5 for more information on optimism bias.

11

 National infrastructure activity
In 2018, infrastructure represented one-fifth of total building and construction value. The last year
saw an increase in infrastructure activity of just over 12% from 2017 to $7.6b in 2018. This is
expected to steadily increase year on year throughout the forecast period, reaching $8.3b by 2024.
Pacifecon’s research data indicates strong sector intentions to initiate new infrastructure projects
nationally.

$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.8.1 Infrastructure activity nationally

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

12

 Types of infrastructure construction
Transport, water and subdivision projects will dominate new infrastructure activity in 2019,
contributing 83% of the projects and 93% of the total value. This year, transport intentions stand
out, with high-value projects contributing a much higher proportion of value (54%) than the number
of projects (32%).
Figure 3.9.1 Infrastructure project types anticipated to start in 2019,8 by number and value
Number
Electricity/Gas,
39, 1%

Value ($b)
Electricity/Gas,
$0.04 , 2%

Communications,
11, 0.4%

Communications,
$0.04 , 2%

Other, $0.10 , 5%
Other, 423, 16%
Transport, 866, 32%
Subdivision, $0.38 , 22%
Subdivision
, 549, 20%

Transport, $0.91 , 54%

Water, $0.3, 17%
Water,
850, 31%

Source: Pacifecon

8

Year ending December 2019.

13

 Project initiators for infrastructure projects, by sector
Local government is, as usual, the main initiator of infrastructure intentions, contributing 47% of
projects initiated over the forecast period. Central government (28%, mostly transport) and the
private sector (25%, mostly subdivisions) are very similar to each other in the total value initiated.
Late 2019 through to early 2021 shows the peak for infrastructure intentions.

$1.2
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2

Private

Local government

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

$0.0
19 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.10.1 Project initiators for infrastructure projects, by sector

Central government

Source: Pacifecon

14

 Regional comparisons
This section examines the differences in the forecast values for residential buildings, non-residential
buildings and infrastructure activity across the regions defined in the report. The individual regions
are discussed in more detail in section 0.
Total building and construction value regional comparison
All the regions except Canterbury saw growth in total construction in 2018. The Auckland region saw
the strongest growth, up 13% on the previous year. Wellington experienced 6% growth,
Waikato/Bay of Plenty 5% and Rest of New Zealand saw just 1% growth in total construction.
Canterbury decreased total construction activity by 9%, which follows an 11% decrease in 2017.
Throughout the forecast period, all the regions (except Canterbury) are expected to continue to
grow. Auckland in particular is expected to see strong growth at 22%. Waikato/Bay of Plenty is
forecast to grow by 13%, and Wellington and Rest of New Zealand are both expected to grow by 3%
over the period to 2024. Canterbury is forecast to reduce a further 22% to just above $5b in 2024.

$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1

Auckland

Rest of NZ

Waikato/BoP

Canterbury

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.11.1 Value of total building and construction, by region

Wellington
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

15

 Residential building regional comparison
Auckland’s strong growth in total construction value is driven by the forecast for residential
buildings. The value of residential buildings in Auckland increased from $8b in 2017 to $8.8b in 2018,
an increase of 10%. This is forecast to increase to $12.2b by 2024, an increase of 39% over 2018.
The Wellington region follows Auckland as the next-largest forecast growth in residential building
value over the forecast period. Wellington is forecast to increase residential building value by 17%
over the forecast period from $1.8b to $2.1b.
Canterbury is the only region to have a forecast decrease in residential building value. Residential
building value in Canterbury was $3.6b in 2018, falling from $4b in 2017 (a fall of 10%). This decrease
in activity in Canterbury is forecast to continue throughout the forecast period, although not to the
same extent as was seen between 2017 and 2018.

$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5

Auckland

Rest of NZ

Waikato/BoP

Canterbury

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.11.2 Value of residential buildings, by region

Wellington
Source: BRANZ

16

 Non-residential building regional comparison
Last year saw a levelling out in non-residential activity for the two largest regions – Auckland after a
large increase in the value of non-residential buildings (up 23% between 2017 and 2018) and
Canterbury after a large decrease (down 14% between 2017 and 2018). Non-residential activity is
forecast to stay relatively stable across the two regions over the next two to three years though,
before tailing away towards the end of the forecast period.
Rest of New Zealand and Waikato/Bay of Plenty are the only two regions expected to grow
substantially over the next three years and are forecast to increase by 16% and 15% respectively
between 2018 and 2021.

Auckland

Rest of NZ

Waikato/BoP

Wellington

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$1.0
$0.9
$0.8
$0.7
$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.11.3 Value of non-residential building, by region

Canterbury
Source: BRANZ

17

 Infrastructure activity regional comparison
Infrastructure activity grew strongly (by 12%) in 2018. Infrastructure forecasts overall are for
continued steady growth to 2024. Growth is being driven by transport, subdivisions and water (see
Figure 3.9.1). Growth in infrastructure is expected in all regions except Canterbury throughout the
forecast period. Auckland is expected to grow 17%, Rest of New Zealand 14%, Waikato/Bay of Plenty
13%, Wellington 8% and a decrease of 27% is expected in Canterbury.

Auckland

Rest of NZ

Waikato/BoP

Wellington

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$1.1
$1.0
$0.9
$0.8
$0.7
$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 3.11.4 Value of infrastructure activity, by region

Canterbury
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

18

 4.

Regional forecast
Auckland9

Auckland has always been New Zealand’s largest market for building and construction, contributing
40% of total national construction value and 39% of dwelling unit consents in 2018, an increase of
4% for both measures in 2017. Auckland is forecast to continue to grow to represent 45% of both
total national construction and dwelling unit consents in 2024.
Following a very slight reduction in Auckland’s total construction value in 2017, there was a 13% rise
in 2018 to $16b, which represents the largest growth of any region. The forecast for Auckland is for
year-on-year growth until the end of the forecast period reaching $19b in 2024, a 22% increase on
current activity.
All types of construction activity grew in Auckland in 2018. Growth over the next two years is
expected to be driven by strong residential building demand of approximately 10% per annum. From
2021, growth is still expected but at a slower rate of 4% per annum. Residential building value is
forecast to reach $12.2b in 2024.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 4.1.1 All construction in Auckland, by value

Total

$20
$18
$16
$14

Residential building

$12
$10
$8
$6

Infrastructure

$4
$2
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

24 Q1

Non-residential
building

$0

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

9

The area covered by Auckland Council.

19

 Auckland dwelling consent activity
The number of dwelling units consented in Auckland grew by 18% to nearly 13,000 in 2018
exceeding the previous peak in 2002 by 6%. Consistent growth is expected throughout the forecast
period resulting in a 33% increase in dwelling unit consents from current levels to a high of over
17,000 in 2023. This is a similar forecast to last year’s resulting in over 96,000 dwelling units
expected to be consented in the six years from 2019 to 2024.

16,000
14,000

17,100

12,862
14,500

18,000
12,182

number/year

Figure 4.1.2 Dwelling units in Auckland, 1994 to 2024

12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
94

96

98

94

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Source: BRANZ/Stats NZ

Auckland multi-unit consents
Dwelling growth in Auckland continues to be driven by multi-unit consents. In 2018 (as in 2017), the
number of multi-units consented exceeded the number of detached consents contributing just over
50% of the 12,862 dwellings consented. In 2016, multi-units represented 44%. This trend is expected
to become more apparent over the forecast period with 58% of the more than 96,000 dwellings to
be consented by 2024 being multi-unit.

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
17 Q1

number/quarter

Figure 4.1.3 Dwelling units in Auckland

Multi-units
Source: BRANZ

20

 Auckland non-residential building activity
Non-residential building activity in Auckland grew by 23% in 2018 and is forecast to remain at this
high level and peak at $3.5b in 2021. This coincides with a peak in research values over the next two
years that indicate strong non-residential building intentions for the region. Non-residential building
is then expected to reduce by 15% to the end of the forecast period.
$1.4
$1.2
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2
24 Q1

Research

23 Q1

21 Q1

Forecast

22 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.1.4 Auckland non-residential building activity

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

21

 Auckland infrastructure activity
Infrastructure activity in Auckland increased by 12% in 2018 to $3.2b and is forecast to increase by
17% to over $3.7b by 2024. The research data shows a high value of known infrastructure project
intentions throughout the forecast period, which is typical of large publicly funded civil projects that
have long complex planning processes.

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.1.5 Auckland infrastructure activity

$1.2
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2
24 Q1

Research

23 Q1

21 Q1

Forecast

22 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.0

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

Planned non-residential buildings and infrastructure work for Auckland includes:10
•
•
•
•
•

mixed-use buildings – apartments/hotels and retail/offices
expansion at the airport – terminal buildings and infrastructure and tourist accommodation
city centre development leading up to 2021
infrastructure including roads, rail and subdivisions to support growth in residential building
and public transport
three waters expansion – drinking water, wastewater and stormwater.
Source: Pacifecon

10

For more information, refer to section 0.

22

 Canterbury11
Total construction value in the Canterbury region reduced 9% to $6.6b in 2018, a lower rate of
decrease than 2017 and as forecast. This decrease was driven mainly by non-residential building,
reducing by 14% and residential building reducing by 10%. Infrastructure activity rose very slightly.
Non-residential building value is expected to maintain at $2b per annum to 2021 and then gradually
reduce to $1.2b in 2024. This reduction is more gradual than previously forecast. Residential building
value, which was at $3.6b in 2018, was lower than expected and is likely to gradually reduce to $3.2b
in 2024. Infrastructure remains at $0.9b per year to 2020, after which it is forecast to reduce to
$0.7b in 2024.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 4.2.1 All construction in Canterbury, by value

$8
$7
$6

Total

$5
Residential building

$4
$3

Non-residential
building

$2
$1
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

24 Q1

Infrastructure

$0

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

11

Canterbury includes Ashburton District, Christchurch City, Hurunui District, Kaikoura District, Mackenzie
District, Selwyn District, Timaru District, Waimakariri District and Waimate District.

23

 Canterbury dwelling consent activity
The number of dwellings consented in Canterbury reduced by 5% in 2018, exactly as forecast, driven
predominantly by an 11% decrease in the number of detached dwellings consented. Unlike the
previous year, the number of multi-units consented rose by 15%. As in 2018, the forecast remains
that the number of dwelling consents will maintain at current levels to the end of the forecast period
with the proportion of multi-unit dwellings standing at approximately 25% each year.

number/quarter

Figure 4.2.2 Dwelling units in Canterbury

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

0

Multi-units
Source: BRANZ

Canterbury non-residential building activity
Non-residential building activity reduced by 14% in 2018, less than previously forecast. Canterbury
non-residential building is now expected to maintain current levels to 2020 and then reduce over the
next four years to around $1.2b in 2024.

$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.2.3 Canterbury non-residential building activity

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

24

 Canterbury infrastructure activity
Infrastructure activity increased in 2018 – it had been forecast to decrease further. For the rest of
the forecast period, infrastructure value is expected to decrease slowly to $0.7b by 2023.

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.2.4 Canterbury infrastructure activity

$0.35
$0.30
$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.00

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

Planned non-residential buildings and infrastructure work for Canterbury includes:
•
•
•
•
•

retail, offices and tourist accommodation
education, health, sports facilities, places of worship and civic buildings
dairy processing plants – new and expansion of existing facilities
infrastructure – public transport and streetscapes
residential subdivisions.
Source: Pacifecon

25

 Waikato/Bay of Plenty12
The total value of construction in Waikato/Bay of Plenty increased by 5% in 2018 to $6.3b. Both nonresidential building and infrastructure value grew but residential building value fell slightly.
Residential building is forecast to grow for the next two years to $4.2b per annum before levelling
out from 2021 to the end of the forecast period. Non-residential building is forecast to grow by 12%
in 2019 to $1.3b and to remain at this level until 2024. Infrastructure activity in the region increased
in 2018 by 12% following a slight reduction in 2017. Value is expected to remain around $1.5–1.6b
per annum to 2024.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 4.3.1 All construction in Waikato/Bay of Plenty, by value

$8

Total

$7
$6
Residential building

$5
$4
$3

Infrastructure

$1

Non-residential
building
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0

24 Q1

$2

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

12

Waikato/Bay of Plenty includes Hamilton City, Hauraki District, Kawerau District, Matamata-Piako District,
Opotiki District, Otorohanga District, Rotorua District, South Waikato District, Taupo District, Tauranga City,
Thames-Coromandel District, Waikato District, Waipa District, Waitomo District, Western Bay of Plenty District
and Whakatane District.

26

 Waikato/Bay of Plenty dwelling consent activity13
Waikato/Bay of Plenty experienced strong dwellings consent growth to 2016. In 2018, there was a
decrease of 5% to 5,738 dwelling consents, very slightly more than forecast, caused by an increase in
dwelling consents in Waikato but a considerable reduction in Bay of Plenty. Growth to over 6,000
dwelling consents is again expected in 2019. This growth is forecast to continue with nearly 6,500
dwelling units forecast for 2022 onwards.
The forecast growth includes over 38,000 dwellings consented from 2019 to 2024, less than was
previously forecast for the region. Growth is expected to be driven by increases in both detached
and multi-unit dwelling consents. Multi-unit consents are anticipated to remain at approximately
25% of all dwelling consents. Waikato/Bay of Plenty is expected to consent the second-largest
number of multi-unit dwellings after Auckland between 2019 and 2024. Historical consents show
multi-units are more popular in Waikato than Bay of Plenty.

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
17 Q1

number/quarter

Figure 4.3.2 Dwelling units in Waikato/Bay of Plenty

Multi-units
Source: BRANZ

13

See the National Construction Pipeline Report 2016 for a historical comparison of dwelling consent activity
for Waikato and Bay of Plenty separately.

27

 Waikato/Bay of Plenty non-residential building activity
Non-residential building activity in the region increased as forecast by 26% to $1.2b in 2018,
following a fall of 12% in 2017. Non-residential building activity is forecast to increase yet further by
12% in 2019 and to remain around $1.3b per year, with a peak of $1.4b at 2021, through to 2024.

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.3.3 Waikato/Bay of Plenty non-residential building activity

$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.00

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

Waikato/Bay of Plenty infrastructure activity
Infrastructure activity in the region increased in 2018 to $1.4b. It is expected there will be moderate
growth from this level throughout the rest of the forecast period.

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.3.4 Waikato/Bay of Plenty infrastructure activity

$0.5
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.0

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

Planned non-residential building and infrastructure work for Waikato/Bay of Plenty includes:
•
•
•
•
•

manufacturing and processing plants including dairy
cultural, community, education and health buildings
residential, commercial and industrial subdivisions
tourist accommodation and attractions
infrastructure including transport, electricity, water and town centre improvements.
Source: Pacifecon

28

 Wellington14
Wellington experienced very strong (15%) residential building value growth in 2018, which led to
total construction in the region rising by 6% to $3b. Whilst infrastructure value also rose, it was the
reduction in non-residential building activity by 17% that pulled down total construction value in the
region.
Wellington’s total construction value is forecast to remain at $3b in 2019. In 2020, a further increase
is forecast due to levelling out of non-residential activity and a rise in residential building activity.
This elevated level of $2b or just above of residential activity per annum is forecast to be sustained
through to 2024 and to maintain total construction levels in Wellington at just above $3b each year.
Non-residential building activity is expected to reduce gradually from $0.8b in 2017 through $0.7b in
2018 to around $0.4b in 2024. Infrastructure activity is forecast to increase slowly throughout the
forecast period.

$3.5
Total
$3.0
$2.5

Residential building

$2.0
$1.5
$1.0

Infrastructure

$0.5

Non-residential
building
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0.0

24 Q1

$billions/rolling year

Figure 4.4.1 All construction in Wellington, by value

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

14

Wellington includes Carterton District, Kapiti Coast District, Lower Hutt City, Masterton District, Porirua City,
South Wairarapa District, Upper Hutt City and Wellington City.

29

 Wellington dwelling consent activity
Strong dwelling growth continues to be forecast for Wellington with nearly 19,000 dwelling units
expected to be consented between 2019 and 2024. Wellington dwelling numbers increased by 19%
in 2018, considerably more than was forecast. This growth is forecast to continue with 3,200
dwellings each year from 2022. Dwelling growth is expected to be driven by both detached and
especially multi-unit dwelling consent growth to 2024. The proportion of multi-units (42%) forecast
for Wellington by 2024 is second only to Auckland (61%). This year, the forecast is for slightly more
multi-units than previously.

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
17 Q1

number/quarter

Figure 4.4.2 Dwelling units in Wellington

Multi-units
Source: BRANZ

Wellington non-residential building activity
Non-residential building activity in Wellington was higher than previously forecast at $0.7b. This was
still a decrease of 17% on the high of 2017. Current levels are expected to be maintained through to
2020 when a reduction is anticipated with non-residential building activity expected to reduce
further to $0.4b by 2024.

$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.00

17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.4.3 Wellington non-residential building activity

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

30

 Wellington infrastructure activity
Wellington infrastructure activity has remained around $0.5b per annum since 2015, and this is
expected to continue through the forecast period. The high value of research data indicates strong
infrastructure project intentions in the region.

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.20
$0.18
$0.16
$0.14
$0.12
$0.10
$0.08
$0.06
$0.04
$0.02
$0.00

17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.4.4 Wellington infrastructure activity

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

Planned non-residential and infrastructure work for Wellington includes:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

office, conference centre, retail, visitor accommodation, entertainment and sporting
facilities
hospital, education and civic buildings
non-residential building work arising from the Kaikoura earthquake
demolitions, reinstatements, repairs and ongoing earthquake strengthening
three waters developments – drinking water, wastewater and stormwater
residential subdivisions
public transport.
Source: Pacifecon

31

 Rest of New Zealand
Rest of New Zealand contains the remaining 11 regions of New Zealand – Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay,
Manawatu-Whanganui, Marlborough, Nelson, Northland, Otago, Southland, Taranaki, Tasman and
West Coast. These regions individually all have a lower value of total construction activity and
populations15 than the other regions considered in this report.
For Rest of New Zealand, total construction value grew 1% to $7.7b in 2018. Growth was driven by a
2% increase in residential building and infrastructure growth but held back by a 10% fall in nonresidential building activity.
Total construction value for Rest of New Zealand is forecast to grow for the next two years to $8.4b
per annum. This growth is underpinned by residential building. Following a peak in 2021, a gradual
reduction in activity is forecast to $7.9b in 2024.

$bllions/rolling year

Figure 4.5.1 All construction in Rest of New Zealand, by value

$9
Total

$8
$7
$6

Residential building

$5
$4
$3
Infrastructure

$1

Non-residential
building
23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0

24 Q1

$2

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

15

Some regions have static or decreasing populations.

32

 Rest of New Zealand dwelling consents
Following strong growth of 14% in 2017, dwelling consents in Rest of New Zealand remained static at
just below 7,000 in 2018. Dwelling unit consents are forecast to stay at current levels until the end of
the forecast period. Nearly 42,000 dwelling unit consents are forecast between 2019 and 2024 with
over 7,000 dwelling units expected each year to 2021. Multi-units are not as popular in these
regions, and their proportion is expected to maintain at approximately 15%.

number/quarter

Figure 4.5.2 Dwelling units in Rest of New Zealand

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

Detached

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

0

Multi-units
Source: BRANZ

Rest of New Zealand non-residential building activity
Rest of New Zealand’s non-residential building activity increased 9% to $1.5b in 2017. In 2018, nonresidential building value decreased by 10% to $1.4b, still above forecast ($1.3b). Activity is forecast
to rise again in 2019 by 10% and maintain at $1.5–1.6b to 2023. A decrease to below $1.4b is
forecast for 2024. The very high value in the research data indicates that there are strong intentions
for non-residential buildings in Rest of New Zealand.
$1.2
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.5.3 Rest of New Zealand non-residential building activity

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

33

 Rest of New Zealand infrastructure activity
Infrastructure activity rose in 2018 and is forecast to continue a consistent rise over the forecast
period from $1.4b currently to $1.6b in 2024.
$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1

Forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0.0
17 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 4.5.4 Rest of New Zealand infrastructure activity

Research
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

34

 Individual regions within Rest of New Zealand
Otago is the largest region16 in the Rest of New Zealand group and provides 28% of the group’s new
dwelling unit consents. Wellington (the fourth-largest region) has pulled ahead of the Otago region
for dwelling consents and infrastructure since 2018, with BRANZ forecasting indicating 16% more
residential building value expected for Wellington in 2019 and Pacifecon’s research data indicating
considerably more infrastructure. Pacifecon’s research data again indicates a higher value of known
non-residential building intentions for Otago. Wellington has been included in Table 4.5.1 below for
comparison with Otago.
Table 4.5.1 All building and construction in the year 31 December 2019 for Rest of New Zealand and Wellington, by region
and construction type

Region

Wellington
Otago
Northland
Manawatu/Whanganui
Hawke’s Bay/Gisborne
Nelson/Marlborough
Taranaki
Southland
West Coast
New Zealand wide18
Total – Rest of New
Zealand

Forecast
residential building
($m)
$1,866
$1,615
$861
$670
$520
$659
$350
$195
$66
$4,935

Researched nonresidential building
($m)17
$733
$806
$197
$160
$188
$138
$88
$97
$51
$314
$2,040

Researched
infrastructure activity
($m)
$601
$322
$313
$226
$202
$187
$195
$34
$68
$0
$1,547
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

16

By total construction value and number of new dwelling consents.
Values in red are from Pacifecon’s database of anticipated project values and are subject to optimism bias.
18
New Zealand wide is used in Pacifecon’s dataset to define work that covers all of New Zealand – for
example, ultra-fast broadband rollout.
17

35

 5.

Comparison with the National Construction Pipeline Report 2018
Adjustments to data from the 2018 report

The following adjustments have been made to the forecast data from the 2018 report to enable a
closer comparison with actuals and forecasts in this report:
•

•

Conversion from December 2017 dollars to December 2018 dollars to account for inflation19
as follows:
o Residential building
3.9%
o Non-residential building
4.5%
o Infrastructure construction
3.6%
Adjustments for Stats NZ’s revisions to the December 2017 gross fixed capital formation
data:20
o Residential building
1.0%
o Non-residential building
-0.9%
o Infrastructure construction
-5.5%

How did BRANZ do with the 2018 forecast?
The total value of construction nationally grew by 5% in 2018, whereas the 2018 report had
expected 3% growth. All three construction types (residential buildings, non-residential buildings and
infrastructure construction) grew as expected or slightly more than expected.
This year’s forecast to 2024 remains for moderate and sustained growth to a peak of $43b in 2021.
The forecast anticipates construction activity to be slightly stronger than forecast in 2018 through to
2023.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 5.2.1 All construction nationally, last four years of forecasts compared

$50
2017

$45

2019
2018

$40
2016

$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0

Source: BRANZ

19

All previous reports have been adjusted to December 2018 dollars for comparison.
Stats NZ adjusts the gross fixed capital formation data following its initial release for a couple of years. It is
likely this data will be adjusted again, either up or down, in the next 12 months.
20

36

 Residential building forecast comparison
The 2018 report forecast 4% residential building growth for 2018 nationally while actual recorded
growth was slightly lower at 3%. The current report forecasts residential building to increase by 18%
over the six-year forecast to almost $27b by 2023. This is not dissimilar to the 2018 report but shows
higher growth to 2022 then slower growth thereafter.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 5.2.2 All residential building nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5

2019 residential building forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0

2018 residential building forecast

Source: BRANZ

Dwelling unit forecast comparison
The 2018 report forecast 3% dwelling consent growth for 2018 nationally while actual consent
growth was double that at 6%. The 2019 forecast is for year-on-year growth to 2022. Compared to
the 2018 forecast, this is higher short-term dwelling growth followed by maintenance to 2024.
Over the next four years, the number of dwelling units consented is forecast to increase by 15% to a
high of 38,000 dwelling units in 2022. Dwelling unit consents went past the 2004 peak (31,423
dwellings) in 2018 as was forecast last year.

45,000

31,423

32,996 38,000

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

Consent actuals

2018 forecast

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

0
94

Dwelling consents / year

Figure 5.2.3 Dwelling units consented nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts comparison

2019 forecast
Source: BRANZ/Stats NZ

37

 Non-residential building forecast comparison
The 2018 report was accurate forecasting 4% non-residential building growth for 2018 nationally.
This year’s report forecasts a non-residential building peak in 2021, higher and later than the peak
forecast previously.

$billions/rolling year

Figure 5.2.4 Non-residential building nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared

$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2

2019 Non-residential building forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

17 Q1

$0

2018 Non-residential building forecast
Source: BRANZ

Infrastructure construction forecast comparison
National infrastructure values are historically more consistent year on year than residential or nonresidential building activity values. Last year’s report expected less than 1% infrastructure growth,
whereas actual recorded activity was a 12% increase. Infrastructure activity nationally is expected to
grow at a similar rate to that previously forecast.

$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2

2019 infrastructure forecast

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

19 Q1

18 Q1

$0
17 Q1

$billions/rolling year

Figure 5.2.5 Infrastructure activity nationally, 2018 and 2019 forecasts compared

2018 infrastructure forecast

Source: BRANZ

38

 Comparison of Pacifecon’s 2019 research data with previous reports
Pacifecon’s research dataset contains anticipated values and start dates for non-residential buildings
and infrastructure construction projects. This section compares Pacifecon’s 2019 researched data
with the data used in preceding reports. This section compares how the value and timeline of
Pacifecon’s researched project intentions have varied across reports.
The 2019 research data shows strong intentions through 2020 and represents a greater volume of
intentions in the pipeline than any previous report. Unlike previous years, the peak is pushed further
out to 2020 Q4 and the decline is steeper. The research data for the 2017 and 2018 reports show
reasonably similar curves to each other. Pacifecon’s view is there are still further adjustments to
come before 2020 – projects always take longer than anticipated.
The report highlights where the research data has indicated strong known project intentions for
non-residential and infrastructure projects throughout the forecast period.

$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1

2017 report

2018 report

24 Q1

23 Q1

22 Q1

21 Q1

20 Q1

$0
19 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 5.3.1 Value of all Pacifecon known non-residential and infrastructure project intentions data, by report year

2019 report
Source: Pacifecon

39

 Comparison of previous reports’ project intentions with project outcomes
Pacifecon’s research dataset has shown an increase in the number of projects totaling over $100m
anticipated to start each year. The total number of $100m projects in the database expected to start
in 2018 (47) was the highest number recorded since the report’s initiation. This indicated an
expectation of growth in very large non-residential building and infrastructure projects over the
coming years. Section 5.5 describes the optimism bias that ultimately occurs with specific project
intentions. Comparing the projections with actuals over time helps to inform how to accurately
adjust for this bias.
Table 5.4.1 compares what was projected and actuals over the previous five reports. There were 47
known projects (non-residential building and infrastructure construction) valued at $100m or more
included in the 2018 report that were anticipated to start between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019.
Half of these projects (23 out of 47) started as anticipated. The number of known projects valued at
over $100m expected to start between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019 has since decreased to 31
projects (16 non-residential building and 15 infrastructure projects).
Table 5.4.1 Outcome of projects valued at $100 million and over anticipated to start in the current year across the current
and previous reports

Outcome

Number of projects anticipated to be initiated
2014 report

2015 report

2016 report

2017 report

2018 report

Started as anticipated

9

15

15

18

23

Anticipated to start
within the coming year

8

3

10

9

12

Anticipated to start
beyond one year’s time

3

0

4

9

11

Cancelled since
previous report

0

2

0

0

1

Total

20

20

29

36

47

Additional projects
starting21

11

8

7

10

6

Number of projects
started in timeframe

20

26

22

28

29
Source: Pacifecon

21

Additional projects starting since 2018 report: one project new to Pacifecon, the values of two projects
increased to over $100 million prior to commencing, three projects were accelerated so they started within
the April 2018–March 2019 time period.

40

 Construction intentions and optimism bias
All intentions in building and construction come with some level of overconfidence – this is termed
‘optimism bias’. Projects may lag behind their original timelines or are occasionally cancelled. This
optimism bias of non-residential building and infrastructure construction intentions in the Pacifecon
dataset can be seen in the raw (unsmoothed) researched intentions data. This results in a higher
than expected number of projects over the next few years and a lower than expected number of
projects over the longer term.

$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
21 Q1

20 Q1

$0
19 Q1

$billions/quarter

Figure 5.5.1 All non-residential and infrastructure construction intentions, raw (unsmoothed) data

Forecast (non-residential building + infrastructure)
Research (unsmoothed non-residential building + infrastructure)
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

41

 6.

Disclaimer

All reasonable care has been taken in gathering, compiling and producing the information specified
in this report. Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd, BRANZ and MBIE will not be responsible for errors, omissions or
inaccuracies or liable for any claims, actions or suits arising directly or indirectly therefrom.
Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd does not typically use its database for this type of analysis. This has required
additional data manipulation and changes to its database and processes. Over time, the techniques
and processes may be further refined.
Advice has been sought from a variety of sources, and it is believed that the methodology has a
sound basis for future reporting.

Queries and feedback can be emailed to info@building.govt.nz

42

 7.

Appendices
Appendix A: About the parties involved in preparing this report

BRANZ is an independent and impartial research, testing and consulting organisation inspiring the
building and construction industry to provide better buildings for New Zealanders.
This is achieved by transforming insightful research into accessible actionable knowledge.
BRANZ is focused on:
•
•

researching and investigating the design, construction and performance of buildings that
impact the built environment in New Zealand
enabling the transfer of knowledge from the research community into the building and
construction industry.

www.branz.co.nz

Pacifecon focuses exclusively on the New Zealand and Pacific Islands construction industry,
providing business intelligence in the form of future residential, non-residential and infrastructure
project information to its client base. Information is also held on projects that may have a work start
date far beyond 2024 including local government long-term plans.
Pacifecon have over 30 researchers spread throughout New Zealand. Using their local knowledge in
each of the regions and sectors, they deliver thorough, timely and accurate information on
construction projects from the earliest planning stages to start of work across all construction
sectors:
•
•
•

Residential building – subdivisions, houses, apartments and retirement villages.
Non-residential building – commercial, industrial, education, health and sport.
Infrastructure – civil, heavy engineering and energy.

www.pacifecon.co.nz

43

 Appendix B: Terminology, abbreviations and definitions used in this report
actuals

Documented historical values that have been realised.

apartment

Any dwelling unit that is attached to another dwelling unit above
or below it or that is part of a commercial building is considered
an apartment. Apartments in retirement villages are not included.

b

Billion (1,000,000,000 or 109).

boom-bust cycle

A process of economic expansion (boom) and contraction (bust)
that occurs repeatedly.

building consent

A formal approval from a building consent authority to construct
or alter a building.

detached dwelling

Any stand-alone dwelling unit that is not attached to any other
unit (i.e. a typical house on its own section).

dwelling

A building that is used for the purpose of human habitation.
Dwellings include detached and multi-unit dwellings

forecast

Refers to BRANZ’s information on expected future activity.

forecast period

The six years from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2024 for which
building and construction activity is forecast in this report.

gross fixed capital formation

Net/gross increase in physical assets (investment minus disposals)
within the measurement period. It does not account for the
consumption (depreciation) of fixed capital or the cost of land
purchases. It is a component of the expenditure approach to
calculating gross domestic product (expenditure). This report uses
gross fixed capital formation. Routine maintenance is not
included. Alterations and additions that significantly extend the
life or capacity of an asset are included (i.e. all work done with an
addition and alteration consent).

infrastructure

Infrastructure covers all construction that is not a building,
including:
•
•
•
•

transport – roads, rail, bridges, tunnels, runways,
harbours, marinas, reservoirs, shelters, parking and
lighting
ground works – residential, commercial and industrial
subdivisions, earthmoving, landscaping, parks and landfill
amenities – telecommunications, water and energy
services
mining and energy – wind, thermal, hydro, oil and gas.

Infrastructure is termed ‘other construction’ in Stats NZ
classifications.
m

Million (1,000,000 or 106).

44

 multi-unit dwelling

Separate occupancy dwelling with a wall, ceiling and/or floor in
common with another dwelling unit. This category includes
apartments, townhouses and retirement village units.

non-residential buildings

Values include new construction, additions and alterations to
vertical structures, including hostels, boarding houses, prisons,
hotels, motels, hospitals, nursing homes, schools, libraries,
museums, churches, shops, restaurants, bars, offices, factories
and warehouses.

optimism bias

Overconfidence that is associated with building and construction
intentions.

quarters

Q1: January to March.
Q2: April to June.
Q3: July to September.
Q4: October to December.

research

Refers to Pacifecon’s researched construction project intentions
data.

residential buildings

Includes houses and multi-unit dwellings. Value of residential
buildings includes the value of additions and alterations. The
number of dwelling consents excludes additions and alterations.

retirement village units

All retirement village units from detached houses to apartments
and rooms. The common areas are captured as non-residential
buildings.

rolling years

The aggregation of values from the 12 months immediately
preceding a particular point in time – for example, 2019 Q2 is the
aggregate of the values from April 2018 to June 2019.

smoothing process

Process of spreading the total cost of a project over its intended
construction duration and adjusting for optimism bias.

townhouse

The Stats NZ category of townhouses, flats, units and other
dwellings. All dwellings that are attached horizontally (side by
side) to another dwelling unit are included in this category. A
terraced house is included in this category, as is a minor dwelling
or ‘granny flat’.

years

The 12 months ending 31 December of the year referred to.

45

 Appendix C: Methodology, data, statistics and assumptions used in this report
This report is built from two independent but complementary sources of information on national
building and construction activity.
Forecast: Produced by BRANZ based on Stats NZ’s gross fixed capital formation data series. The gross
fixed capital formation measure includes all types of construction (whether a building consent is
required or not), providing a common measure across the three fixed asset classes of:
•
•
•

residential building
non-residential building
infrastructure construction.

Research: Pacifecon’s construction project intentions database contains expected costs over time
for non-residential and infrastructure projects. Information is collected by Pacifecon on preconstruction project intentions. It is an extensive list of non-residential and infrastructure intentions
across New Zealand.

Forecasting methodology
The forecasting that provides the basis of this report was completed on 1 June 2019, based on the
Stats NZ March 2018 release of 2018 gross fixed capital formation data and other relevant data.
Residential methodology

The residential building sector forecasts in this report are produced by BRANZ. They are based on
modelling of historical building consents and economic forecast indicators. This sector has much
shorter lead times than the non-residential sector.
Key assumptions

•
•
•
•
•
•

•

Residential building demand is based on Stats NZ December 2015 household formation
subnational projections using a scenario between their high and medium scenario. This gives
a net new household formation of 28,000 per year through to 2024.
BRANZ has assumed a direct relationship between household formation and demand for
new dwelling construction.
BRANZ has assumed zero unsatisfied residential building demand at the 2013 Census.
The net result is an average of about 37,50022 dwellings per annum through to 2024.
An average of a nine-month time lag is assumed between the building consent issue and
value of work completed.
Value of work includes detached houses, multi-unit dwellings and additions and alterations
to existing dwellings and is based on consent values multiplied by 1.54 to allow for variations
after the consent has been issued and other costs included in the gross fixed capital
formation measure. The multiplication factor is calculated from historical ratios of fixed
capital formation/consent values.
Historical consents are first published data, and there may be subsequent changes in some
locations. Usually these revisions are minor.

Changes in residential methodology from the 2018 report

Assumptions used to forecast residential building fixed capital formation have changed from the
2018 report. Changes include:

22

This was 35,250 dwellings in the 2018 report.

46

 •
•

the distribution of work across quarterly seasons has been adjusted based on changes in
previous seasonal distribution of work
a reduction in the impact of KiwiBuild on the total number of dwelling consents.

All non-residential building and infrastructure

The non-residential building and infrastructure forecasts are based on BRANZ forecasts and charted
alongside researched project intentions data held by Pacifecon throughout the report.
Non-residential building methodology

BRANZ forecasts of non-residential buildings are based on forecasts of non-residential building
consent values provided by Stats NZ. The consent values are multiplied by a factor of 1.25 for gross
fixed capital formation using historical ratios between consents and gross fixed capital formation
and allowing for an average of a 12-month time lag between building consent issue and value of
work completed.
Ten categories of non-residential building consents are forecast based on the Stats NZ data. Single
equation regression models have been developed for most of the categories.
Infrastructure methodology

BRANZ forecasts for infrastructure are based on modelling the historical trends for industry
commissioning and ownership of assets and expected growth in the five main sectors of:
•
•
•
•
•

mining – about 11% of other construction fixed capital formation
electricity/gas/water sectors – 30%
transport – 40%
telecommunications – 7%
other – 12%.

Real growth is based on historical growth trends and planned work (for example, the Government
Policy Statement on Land Transport Funding). Real growth in gross fixed capital formation for the
five sectors is assumed to be -3% per year for mining, 1% for electricity/gas/water, 3% for transport,
0.5% for telecommunications and 1% for other infrastructure works.

Research data methodology
Pacifecon’s anticipated projects

A dataset of over 9,000 researched future projects known to Pacifecon has been used in this report.
The data is up to date as at 16 February 2019. Smoothed data as at 26 June 2019 has been used in
this report.
The Pacifecon dataset of project values shows the value of all projects, smoothed across future
quarters for the duration of the project (as far as this is known or estimated). Work on all high-value
(over $50m) non-residential construction initiated since the beginning of 2011 and that is still in
progress, is also included. The dataset includes both non-residential building and infrastructure.
Pacifecon’s refinement of the smoothing process

Pacifecon’s data used in this report consists of projects that are at pre-construction stages, from the
very earliest planning through to tendering. This real project activity data is collected and retained
by Pacifecon.
The total number of projects reported by Pacifecon has increased from over 6,000 in the first report
to over 9,000 projects in the current report. When using researched project intentions to forecast
activity, Pacifecon accounts for optimism bias. Not all projects in the planning process will progress
47

 to actual constructions at the intended value or proposed timeframes. To account for this optimism
bias in the dataset, Pacifecon undertakes a smoothing process to prepare the data for the report.
Pacifecon has consistently refined its smoothing process by studying the highest-value projects to
ascertain the most likely allocation of their value of work over time.
•
•
•
•
•

First report (2013): projects over $100 million were individually scrutinised.
Second report (2014): projects over $90 million were scrutinised.
Third report (2015): projects over $75 million were scrutinised.
Fourth report (2016): projects over $60 million were scrutinised.
Fifth (2017), sixth (2018) and current report (2019): projects over $50 million were
scrutinised.

The thousands of lower-value projects in the research data are smoothed as follows:
•
•
•

$30m to <$50m projects – value of work is spread over eight quarters.
$5m to <$30m projects – value of work is spread over six quarters.
<$5m projects – value of work is allocated to two quarters.

48

 Appendix D: Projects likely to start within the year valued over $100m
Table 7.4.1 Non-residential building projects likely to start within the year23 valued at over $100m24

Region
Auckland
Mills Lane Tower
Weiti Bay Villages
Wynyard Quarter Marine Facility
St Lukes Shopping Centre
Queen Street Hotel
Hobson Street Hotel
Albert Street Hotel
Auckland Airport Hotel
Auckland Airport Carpark Building
Auckland Airport Terminal Plaza and
Transport Centre
Canterbury
Metro Sports Facility
Dairy Processing Plant
Waikato/Bay of Plenty
Hautapu Industrial Precinct
Te Rapa Gateway Industrial Stage
Dairy Processing Plant
Wellington
Bowen Street Offices

Type

Project initiator

Mixed-use building
Mixed-use development
Mixed-use development
Commercial development
Commercial building
Commercial building
Commercial building
Commercial building
Airport
Airport

Private
Private
Private
Private
Private
Private
Private
Private
Private
Private

Sports facility EQ
Industrial buildings

Local government
Private

Industrial precinct
Industrial building
Industrial building

Private
Private
Private

Commercial building

Private
Source: Pacifecon

23

Year is the 12 months ending 31 March 2020.
Inclusion of a project does not mean it will proceed to the scale and timeframe indicated above. It is,
however, the best available picture at 26 June 2019. Pacifecon’s building and construction information is
constantly updated.
24

49

 Table 7.4.2 Infrastructure projects likely to start within the year25 valued at over $100m26

Region
Auckland

Type

Project initiator

America’s Cup Wynyard Wharf Bases
SH22 Improvements
City Rail Link Wider Network
Improvements
City Rail Link Line Wide Systems

Civil
Roads
Railway

City Rail Link Stations and Tunnels

Railway
Roads
Wastewater

Central government
Central government
Central/local
government
Central/local
government
Central/local
government
Local government
Local government

Watermain

Local government

Subdivision

Private

Roads
Electricity
Electricity/gas

Central government
Private
Private

Infrastructure maintenance
Electricity/gas
Electricity/gas

Local government
Private
Private

Railway

AMETI Panmure to Pakuranga
Central Interceptor Wastewater
Tunnel
North Harbour Watermain
Duplication
Clevedon Quays

Waikato/Bay of Plenty
Tauranga Northern Link
Bay of Plenty
Waikato Power Plant

Rest of New Zealand
Infrastructure Maintenance
Electricity/gas
Electricity/gas

Source: Pacifecon

25

Year is the 12 months ending 31 March 2020.
Inclusion of a project does not mean it will proceed to the scale and timeframe indicated above. It is,
however, the best available picture at 26 June 2019. Pacifecon’s building and construction information is
constantly updated.
26

50

 Appendix E: Forecast and known table
Table 7.5.1 Forecast and known data ($ billions) by region – annual totals27

Actual
Residential
2017
2018
Auckland
8.0
8.8
Canterbury
4.0
3.6
Waikato/BoP
3.8
3.7
Wellington
1.6
1.8
Rest of NZ
4.7
4.8
TOTAL
22.2
22.8
Non-residential building
Auckland
2.9
3.5
Canterbury
2.2
1.9
Waikato/BoP
0.9
1.2
Wellington
0.8
0.7
Rest of NZ
1.5
1.4
TOTAL
8.4
8.7
Infrastructure
Auckland
2.8
3.2
Canterbury
0.9
1.0
Waikato/BoP
1.3
1.4
Wellington
0.4
0.5
Rest of NZ
1.3
1.4
TOTAL
6.8
7.6
All construction
Auckland
13.7
15.5
Canterbury
7.2
6.6
Waikato/BoP
6.0
6.3
Wellington
2.8
3.0
Rest of NZ
7.6
7.7
TOTAL
37.3
39.1
Researched non-residential building
Auckland
2.6
3.0
Canterbury
1.8
1.4
Waikato/BoP
1.0
1.3
Wellington
0.7
0.7
Rest of NZ
1.5
1.9
TOTAL
7.5
8.4
Researched infrastructure
Auckland
2.5
2.7
Canterbury
1.2
1.0
Waikato/BoP
1.1
1.4
Wellington
0.5
0.5
Rest of NZ
1.6
1.7
TOTAL
6.9
7.3

2019
9.5
3.7
4.0
1.9
5.0
24.0

2020
10.9
3.6
4.2
2.0
5.4
26.1

2021
11.3
3.5
4.3
2.1
5.3
26.5

Forecast
2022
11.7
3.4
4.3
2.1
5.2
26.7

2023
12.1
3.3
4.3
2.1
5.0
26.8

2024
12.2
3.2
4.3
2.1
4.9
26.7

Total
84.6
28.2
32.9
15.6
40.3
201.6

3.5
2.0
1.3
0.6
1.5
8.9

3.5
2.0
1.3
0.6
1.6
9.0

3.5
1.9
1.4
0.6
1.6
9.0

3.3
1.7
1.3
0.5
1.6
8.5

3.1
1.5
1.3
0.5
1.5
7.9

3.0
1.2
1.2
0.4
1.4
7.2

26.4
14.5
10.0
4.7
12.1
67.7

3.3
0.9
1.5
0.5
1.5
7.8

3.4
0.9
1.6
0.5
1.5
7.9

3.6
0.8
1.6
0.5
1.5
8.0

3.6
0.8
1.6
0.5
1.6
8.1

3.7
0.7
1.6
0.5
1.6
8.2

3.7
0.7
1.6
0.5
1.6
8.3

27.4
6.8
12.3
4.1
12.1
62.7

16.3
6.6
6.8
2.9
8.0
40.7

17.8
6.5
7.1
3.2
8.5
43.0

18.4
6.2
7.2
3.2
8.4
43.5

18.6
5.9
7.2
3.2
8.3
43.2

18.8
5.6
7.2
3.1
8.2
42.9

19.0
5.1
7.1
3.1
7.9
42.3

138.3
49.6
55.1
24.5
64.6
332.0

3.6
1.4
1.5
0.7
2.0
9.2

4.8
1.7
1.9
0.9
3.4
12.7

3.8
1.6
1.3
0.5
2.7
9.9

2.6
0.8
0.9
0.2
1.9
6.5

1.8
0.5
0.8
0.2
1.5
4.6

1.5
0.4
0.5
0.2
1.3
3.8

23.6
9.6
9.2
4.0
16.2
62.6

3.1
1.0
1.8
0.6
1.5
8.0

4.3
1.2
1.8
0.7
2.2
10.1

3.5
1.1
1.4
0.6
1.8
8.4

2.9
0.6
0.9
0.4
1.1
5.9

2.8
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.9
5.1

2.5
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
4.6

24.3
6.8
9.7
3.9
11.5
56.2

Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

27

Any differences between figures within Appendix E and other tables and charts in this report are due to
rounding to two significant figures.

51

 Appendix F: Residential dwelling consents actual and forecast data table
Table 7.6.1 Residential dwelling numbers actual consented and forecast, by region – annual totals28

Detached
Auckland
Canterbury
Waikato/BoP
Wellington
Rest of NZ
TOTAL
Multi-units
Auckland
Canterbury
Waikato/BoP
Wellington
Rest of NZ
TOTAL
All dwellings
Auckland
Canterbury
Waikato/BoP
Wellington
Rest of NZ
TOTAL

2017
5,318
3,829
4,626
1,432
5,811
21,016

Actual
2018
6,398
3,422
4,103
1,595
5,599
21,117

Forecast
2022
2023
2024
Total
6,800 6,800 6,700 51,900
3,700 3,500 3,500 29,700
5,000 4,900 4,800 38,200
1,900 1,900 1,900 14,200
5,900 5,700 5,700 47,700
23,200 22,800 22,600 182,000

2019
6,500
4,000
4,900
1,800
6,400
23,700

2020
2021
6,600 6,700
3,900 3,800
5,000 5,000
1,900 1,900
6,300 6,200
23,600 23,500

5,549
1,175
1,387
862
1,092
10,065

6,464
1,347
1,635
1,136
1,289
11,871

8,000
1,000
1,300
1,200
800
12,300

8,700 9,300 9,800 10,300 10,400 68,500
1,000 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000
8,800
1,400 1,500 1,500 1,600 1,600 12,000
1,200 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,400
9,700
900
900
1,000
900
900
7,900
13,400 14,000 14,800 15,200 15,400 107,000

10,867
5,004
6,013
2,294
6,903
31,081

12,862
4,769
5,738
2,731
6,888
32,988

14,500
5,000
6,200
3,000
7,300
36,000

15,300 16,000 16,600 17,100 17,100 120,300
5,000 4,900 4,700 4,600 4,600 38,500
6,400 6,400 6,500 6,500 6,500 50,200
3,100 3,100 3,200 3,200 3,200 23,900
7,200 7,100 6,900 6,700 6,700 55,600
37,000 37,500 38,000 38,000 38,000 289,000
Source: BRANZ/Pacifecon

28

Any differences between figures within Appendix F and other tables and charts in this report are due to
rounding to the nearest 100.

52