(r-.

jb
, r

, '

li

,

t'

,;' i , r i ;

li
il

COo CREENHOUSE AND CLII'IATE ISSUES
!.

HENRY StlAI{

PRESENTED

AT

USN/ER&E EI{VI R()III,IENTAL CONFEREI{CE
'(r
FLORHAI'I PARK, ]{EI{ JERSEY

t'lARcH

./
'l

t,

,1
1

28,

1984

t.;I

r

 pRlMARY FOSSTL FUEL,
FIf ERGY CONSUMPTTON
2O3O STU DY
600

o
v,

T'
o
J

o
E

.9
o.
E

f
o
tr

o
()

590
I

I
I
i

,j,
li

!,'
I

j'
i

300
cD

r-

o

c

UI

b
(!
E

i

I

200

L

TL

100

Gas

j

1980
782t t4.32

2ooo
Year

'zo2o

2040

2060

 pRoJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE:(AS CARBON) FROM
WORLD PRIMARY FOSSI[ ,FUEL'CONSUMPTION

,l
I

 U

C)

L'

c

o
It
(l'

()
@
Gt'

po'
X
.9

o
c

0

o
'o ! 1o-f

ro-2
2020
Yonr

 PRoJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON) FROM
WORLD PRIMARY FOSSII]'FUEL'GONSUMPTION

rlr-

1.25
iz.oo -'1.- 1.sz *1.- r.os
-tl.
World Carbon Growlh Rale,
i

i

-

,

o
C)

(9

c

o0
o
 U

o
(!

Ito
X

.g

o
g
o

.o

o 10'-1
.O

1o-2
Yoar

H

7o
i

o.sz

 PROJECTED CARBON DtOXtDE (AS CARBON) FROM

woRLD pRtMARv p0sstt- FUEL coNSUMpnoN

'l
I
I

-'1.-

-->l<-

r.os
1.25
World Carbon Growlh Rnle,

, 2.00 -'1.- 1.sz

-tf.-

,o
C)

lo

c

oo

r(t
(-)
@

t[
c'

l

I

i3
x
.9
cr

:

E

o

-o

o
.(J

ro-f

I

lJ
J
J
I

I

J

I
I

1o-2

I

Yonr

7o

0.97

 RESULTS/EFFECTS

TIME FoR C02 DoUBLING

r
r
r

EPA
' 2060

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE.

3oc

OTHER GASES IMPACT

-1.6 to

SEA LEVEL RISE

150 cm,
215 cm,

PRECIPITATION

P0SSIBLE

AGRICULTURAL

AIRB0RNE COZ FRACTI0N

IIIPACT OF ALTERNATE
ENERGY SOURCES

MIT

NRC/NAS

2090

2075

*

1.3

I .5-4.50c

zoc

-

3.loc

3.3oc rloc

2040
2100
-.llrirl,ill'

I' AJ0R

70 cm 2080
(3-4oC rise)
DRIER MIDWEST

SIGNIFICANT,

CHANGES

UNPREDICTABLE

PLUSES & MINUSES BENEFITS I'IILL
BALANCE DEBITS

SIGNIFICAIT,

0.5 to

EXXON

0.8

0.4

-

0.6

INSENSITIVE

BUT

BUT

UNPREDICTABLE

0.4 to 0.6

0.53

LARGE

INSENSITIVE

 CONCLUS I ONS/RECOI{,IEN DAT ION S

,rl

i i

EPA

IS LITTLE }'E CAN DO EXCEPT LEARN TO ADAPT
LEGISLATION IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT.

THERE

NRC.f{AS

----+---

'l

'lt

A

}IARMER CLII'IATE .

Ir

'$ICERTAINTIES THROUCI RESEARCH../

IMPftT.
tr
LEGITLATIffi IS

I

.ENERGY

i:

,I

!t

,,sUEGE'ST

EXTREI,I

USE THROUGH.CONSERVATIOII AI{D
AI{D ALTE,ftNATE
ANE
TECII
At:
TEcfl
'ISERVATIOII
IMPACT.: ,''t']' .'i,'
RICTTY. I{UCLE
NUCLEAR CAN HAYE IMPACT;.'
RICITY

.

,i

ATIONAL DEBATE ON LEGISLATION .IS.}IEEDED.
'I

LEGI;SLAT

ADEQUATE

IOI{ IS.

TIME T0

PRE},IATURE.

HAVE AN

- i,
-t ,

T START TALKING.TO POLICY MAKERS.

IS

CN

I

rrll

STANFORD"

TITERE

AXES

t'l

.

RIEL
L R'EL

TO

'I "'t,

I

nr r'{.lsr REsoLvE

rI

I

STUDY .THE PR0BLEI .

l*rourrron

,n

LOGIES USING

 u,
c-)

-,

..1

(-

-E

 (

GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC COz AND INSTANTANEOUS
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE AS A FUNCTION OF TIME
Observed

2030 Sludy

0.8%la
I

620

2030 Study

i:r ll

I

t

580

/,/

3.2

I

I

No Synthetic Fuels.Llquid
And Gas Balances Same
As ln 2030 Sludy
l'l:i : i l lt /\

2.8

o

l

o

"-l

E
o(L

irl

o

p

;i., ,,',

/

i,lill

x

o
i5
c
o

r

3/r

{4,,

o
(o
o

,

iv

-o
(!

at

2.4

(,

s

2.0

o
=
r!

l.,u

(l,
CL

E
q,

o

(,

o

F
420

1.2

-c
o.

o
o

E

o

ctt
IE

.o
380

0.8

0.4

00 .. .. .. 20 __.*- 40

Year
t6rraa-1,

,

_.- 60 _....- 80 ___

 .t;

QUANTITY

0F COr PRODUCED FR0ll FIELS

; t'lrc/EJ
EUEL

I

PR0DUcT

(u

EFFrcrEr,rcy)

Pe0.D!eu-QI REFTNTN6

TOIAL

24,3

214,3

i3:3
L3,5

24,3
2L,8
L3,5

l.

Conl
Pernoleum

?:E[38i

Gnsou I ne

FuEr- 0r r-

NnrunRu

Gas

RATIO TO

eg[BUS_U-ofl

r

i

l.g
1.8
1.5
.0

Coal SvnrHErtcs
H-Conl (GnsolrNE)

18,5 (65 )

17

,2 Q5)

19.8

54,5

q.L

EDS (Gnsoltne )

18,5(65)

13,5 (80)

18, g

50,8

3.8

13,5

40.5

3.0

. .18,8

39,2

2.9

67 ,4

5.0

Zt

SNG

Sxnle

0rl

(Glsor-rne )

ElEcrnrcrry

FRoM Coal

13,

g

( 5-0

)'

(75'

67,4 (35)

6,5(gg)

GAS

 c02

GREEilH0USE At{D CLII,IATE ISSUES

AS PART OF CPPD'S TECHI{OLOGY FORECASTIT{G ACTIVITIES

A C02

GREENH0USE FoRECAST BASED

II{ 198I,

0N PUBLTCALLY AVATLABLE n{F0R!,iATI0N.

I

}IROTE

S00N

THEREAFTER, S&T REQUESTED AN UPDATE OF THE FORECAST USING EXXON FOSSIL FUEL

PRO.JECTIOI{S. THIS REQUEST I{AS FOLLOI{ED LATE
ASSISTAI{CE

STUDY"

IN

IN 1981

EVALUATII{G THE POTENTIAL IIIIPACT OF THE COz EFFECT

AFTER I'IEETING CPDIS SPECIFIC I{EED,

UPDATE }IAS ISSUED TO S&T

IN

A

AFFILIATES. THE

PROJECTIONS }IERE COI{VERTED TO AN ENERGY BASIS

IN THE '2030

1982. IT }'AS SUBSEQUENTLY

PRII,IARY FOSSIL FUEL VOLUMETRIC

IN

QUADS/YEAR, AS SHO}IN ON THE

FIRST VUGRAPH. SINCE SHALE LOSSES }IERE NOT II{CLUDED BY CPD, THEY
ESTIITIATED AND ADDED TO

OF THE

U.S.

CALCULATE

OIL E}IERGY. THE TOTAL CARBON

RESOURCES OF COAL AND

LBS. COzltrtBTU FOR

OIL

CONTENT PER

SHALE UERE AVERAGED

It{

I{ERE

UNIT

ENERGY

ORDER TO

EACH RES0URCE:

RATIO

170 LBS.

OIL
GAS
COAL

THESE NUI'IIBERS I{ERE

CHECKED

FOUI{D TO BE ADEQUATE.

=
=

C02ltrtBTU

FOR

FORMAL TECHNOLOGY FORECAST

THE BEGIT{NING OF APRIL

SENT FOR REVIEU TO THE EXXON

vG-'l

I.IITH A REQUEST BY CPD

1.5

115

1.0

207

1.8

AGAI NST SOI.IE INFORI4ATION ON }IORLD RESOURCES AI{D

 UE THEN ESTIIIIATEO THE TOTAL CO2 EIIIITTED FRO'.I THE OXIDATION OF THESE

vc-z

FUELS, AS SHol.lN IN THIS VUGRAPH. THrS IS A SE}iIL0G PLoT I{HICH TEtiDS T0
PICTORIALLY OVERE',IPHASIZE THE II,IPORTAI{CE OF

GAS. I'E

CHOOSE

THIS TYPE OF GRAPH

TO ENABLE US TO SHO}I CERTAIT{ DETAILS THAT }IOULD BE HARD TO DETECT ON

PLoT.

A

LINEAR

THE RATE 0F C02 Eltllssl0Ns GRol{s AT AB0UT A 20X HIGHER MTE THAN

EI{ERGY. THIS IS DUE, IN PART, TO THE SHARP INCREASES IN THE USE OF COAL.
OTHER FACTORS THAT COI{TRIBUTE TO THE HIGHER CARBOI{ GROIITH RATE ARE SHOXN

0L_.1
(RED}

0VERLAY

#l

A]{D INCLUDE THE EI{TRAIT{ED C02 ASS0CIATED I{ITH I{ATURAL GAS

PRODUCTION GROI{II{G FROI'I ABOUT

CONTAIN

5'

TO 15X

FROI,I

AT

IN 2050. SIIIIILARLY, U.S. OIL

A FAIR AMOUI.IT OF CARBONATE-CONTAII{ING

LIII.TESTONE AND DOLOI'IITE I.IHICH DECOI,IPOSE

BLUE )

GAS PR0DUCTI0II ltAS ADDED

PRoDUCTIoN. THIS

OF

IS

OIL

IN

PRoDUCING SHALE

T0 THE C02 EI,IISSIoNS FRol{ GAS,
T0 C02 E[ISSI0ilS FR$l

SHALE TO FUELS RESULTS

65X OF THE

0IL.

IN

THE C02

AND THE SHATE

oIL.

IN ADDITI0i{,

II{ A FAIR A',IIOUI{T

OF

CO2

SHollN 0N oVERLAY #2.

THE CLII.TATIC EFFECT OF NOT HAVII{G A SYNFUELS INDUSTRY AND

EilITTIT{G C02

VG-z

14INERALS CONSISTING PRII'IARILY

ELEVATED TEI'IPERATURES. }.IE ASSUITIED, VERY CONSERVATIVELY, THAT

PROCTSSING OF COAL AI{D

(

SHALES

25X AT RELATIVELY LOI{ TE}IPERATURES SUCH AS COI{VEI{TIOi{AL RETORTING TO 1OO1

0ARB0NATE DEC0r' P0SITI0N r{A5 ADDED

oL_z

GAS

AS A FUNCTIO]I OF RETORTING TEI,IPERATURE,

CARB0NATE-Coi{TAINING I'TINERALS I{oULD DECoHPoSE

IN

Iil

ON

NATURAL GAS PRoDUCTIoN'

FR0tl THE S0URCES I'IENTIONED

Il{

THE

DELAY THE DOUBLING TII'IE BY ABOUT

lll0

5

I.E.'

SUBTRACTII{G THE C02 PRoDUCED

OVERLAYS

YEARS.

NOT

0F

VUGRAPH

#2,

U0ULD BE T0

THE

 ouR ttExT TASK IS T0 CoNVERT THE AlioUTl{ 0F C02 El'llTTED FR0ll F0SSIL
FUEL OXIDATIOIT INTO

A

PRO,]ECTIOII OF HO}I

IT

I.IAY IIiIPACT ON CLII.,IATE. THIS,

HoIIEVER, REQUIRES A t{Ul,tBER 0F A5SUilPTIoNS. FIRST 0F ALL, tiE I UST ESTIT,iATE Hol{
l.'rucH

0F THE c02 sTAYs

CARBOT{ BALAI{CE AROUT{D

GENERATED

FRfi

THE ATil0SPHERE. THIS r,tUST BE CHECKED

THE EARTH, I.IE ASSUI.,IED THAT ABOUT

FOSSIL FUELS REI.IAII{S

II{

THE AT}IOSPHERE.

A FAIR MoUNT 0F C02 cAll 8E

ASSUMPTI0T{ Str{CE

l{E

I

irusl ESTI ATE H0l{

l,lucH c02 ExlSTED

I[

TRACED

1/2

By

C0NDUCTIT{G A

OF THE

THIS IS A

COIISERVATIVE

T0 DEF0RESTATI0i{,

THE ATI, 0SPHERE pRroR T0

TII.IE.

CHEI.IICAL

ISOTOPE MEASUREI,IEIITS

ATr.,fospHERE CoNTAINED

260 IO 270

IN

TREE-RII'{GS IIIDICATE THAT

PPt't C02 pRtoR

co cEtlTRATIoN T0
THE C02 EFFECT

vG-3

UP T0

HAVE BEEN

flLL

GRAPH

VUGRAPH. I'IOST

EXCEED THE

SHOI,I I

IF

PPt'r

C02.

THE

THIRD,

fE

TII. E II{DICATE

THE

rlUST ESTIT'iAI! fHEt{

CLIiIATIC t{olsE THRESHoLD 0F 0.5oC.

I{G ALL THESE ASSUI{PTIOTIS

CL IIiIATOLOG I

THE YEAR 2OOO.

290 T0 300

OF

T0 THE Ii{DUSTRIAL REV0LUTIoN.

CORRECTIONS TO I{EASURE}IENTS ACTUALLY CARRIED OUT ABOUT THAT

A

T

THERE ARE T}IO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT, DEPENDING Ot.i THE I.IETHOD

AI{ALYSIS.

SEC0I{D,

THE

INDUSTRIAL REVoLUTIoN BECAUSE C02 ColiCEt{TRATIotl fAS ASSUIIED Co STA
THAT

CO2

I5

REPRODUCED ON THE IAST

STS AsSUIIE II]AT THE CO2 EFFECT I{ILL 8E DETECTABLE

SO, IJE I.IUST TAKE IIITO

ACCOUI{T THAT

IT

TAKES ABOUT TIIO

DECADES TO EQUILIBRATE THE OCEANS TO

A I{E}I TEI.IPERATURE. THUS,

I0ULD occuR AT 340 PPM C02 AND IOULD

CAUSE

A

TEMPERATURE

BY

THE THRESHOLD

RISE 0F 3oC

IF

lti

2090

uHEt{ THE CURRET{T Ar,loUNT 0F AI}'IoSPHERIC C02

foulD

C0NCE {TRATI0 HAD BEEI{ BETIIEEI{ 290 AND 300

PPM. IF THE PREINDUSTRIAL C02 HAD

BEEN BETIEE {

260 AND 270 PPll,

THEN

A D0UBLltiG

DoUBLE,

I{OULD CAUSE

A

THE PRE-IIIDUSTRIAL

it

RISE

ltl

GLoBAL

AVERAGE TEI,4PERATURE. THESE VALUES FALL TO}IARD THE LOIIER EI{D OF THE GENERALLY

ACCEPTED TEI,IPERATURE RANGE FOR

A

DOUBLII{G OF

3 1 1.5OC,

I.IITH THE RECENTLY PUBLISHED 5OTH PERCENTILE LII{E

III

AND ARE CONSISTEIiT

THE I{A5 REPORT.

 A 2 T0 goc tncnEtsE IN

GLoBAL AvERAGE TETIpERATuRE cAt{ BE AnpLIFIED

T0 ABour tooc Rt rHE poLEs. THIs couLD cAusE p0LAR IcE nELTII{G AND A possIBLE
SEA-LEVEL RISE OF
MEASURED

0.7

I{ETER BY

IN CENTURIES.

2080.

OTHER POTENTIAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED

ATilOSPHERIC C02 C0NCEI TRATI0N AND

I
.
I
.
I

THE TII,IE SCALE FOR SUCH A CATASTROPHE IS

A

HIGH

llARl.itER CLIMATE ARE:

REDISTRIBUTION OF RAII{FALL

POSITIVE AI{D NEGATIVE CHANGES
ACCELERATED GROWTH

IN

OF PESTS AND

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

I{EEDS

DETRII.IENTAL HEALTH EFFECTS
POPULATION I,IIGRATION

SOCIETY MUST CAREFULLY STUDY THE PROBLEII
COURSE OF

}IITH A

ACTION. }IE

IN

CAN EITHER ADAPT OUR

ORDER TO ESTABLISH

CIVILIZATION TO A

A

DESIRABLE

I{ARMER PLANET OR

AVOID THE PROBLETI BY SHARPLY CURTAILING THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS. THE GENERAL
CONCENSUS

c02

IS

THAT SOCIETY HAS SUFFICIEI{I TII,IE TO TECHI{OLOGICALLY ADAPT TO A

GREENHoUSE EFFECT.

OUR CONCLUSIOI{ t{AS RECENTLY REAFFIRI-IED BY

RECEIVED }IIDE PRESS

A

NUMBER OF STUDIES }IHICH

PUBLICITY. THESE STUDIES INCLUDE THOSE OF THE EPA,

I{RCAAS, AND I'II7 NSF AND ARE SUMMARIZED IN THE NEXT 4

VU-GRAPHS.