Frequencies (N=600) NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS SURVEY The Mellman Group, Inc. November 3, 2019 Hello. My name is [FIRST NAME ONLY] from ______. We are conducting a public opinion survey and I would like to ask you some questions. We are not selling anything, and I will not ask you for a contribution or donation. Could I please speak with [ASK FOR NAME ON LIST. IF NOT AVAILABLE, SCHEDULE TIME FOR A CALLBACK. YOU MAY ONLY SPEAK WITH ANOTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IF THEIR NAME IS ON THE LIST.] [RECORD GENDER:] Male ....................................................................................... Female ................................................................................... 42 58 1. In which state do you live? [TERMINATE IF NOT NV] 2. What is your zip code? __________ [TERMINATE IF NOT NV] 3. Are you registered to vote in Nevada? [TERMINATE IF NO OR DON’T KNOW] 4. What is your age? 18-29 ...................................................................... 30-39 ...................................................................... 40-49 ...................................................................... 50-59 ...................................................................... 60-69 ...................................................................... 70+ ......................................................................... Ref ......................................................................... 5. 13 14 14 17 20 22 0 In February 2020, Nevada will hold caucuses to help determine the Democratic nominee for president. Many people do not have time to attend these caucuses. To participate you must either vote at one of several early vote locations between Saturday, February 15th and Tuesday, February 18th or show up at your neighborhood caucus location on Saturday February 22nd. How likely would you say you are to vote early in, or attend, the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucus -- are you almost certain, very likely, about 50-50, not too likely, not at all likely, or aren't you sure? almost certain ........................................................ 73 very likely ............................................................. 19 about 50-50 ........................................................... 8 not too likely ......................................................... [TERMINATE] not at all likely....................................................... [TERMINATE] dk/not sure ............................................................. [TERMINATE] Nevada Democratic Caucus Survey (October 28 – November 2, 2019) Page 2 Overall, do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ? [READ NAME FROM LIST BELOW] If you haven't heard of the person or organization,{6}, or if you don't know enough about that person or organization to have an impression,{5}, just say so and we will move on. [RANDOMIZE Q.6-Q.22] 6. __Michael Bennet ................................. 7. __Joe Biden........................................... 8. __Cory Booker ...................................... 9. __Steve Bullock .................................... 10. __Pete Buttigieg .................................... 11. __Julián Castro .................................... 12. __John Delaney..................................... 13. __Tulsi Gabbard ................................... 14. __Kamala Harris ................................... 15. __Amy Klobuchar ................................ 16. __Beto O’Rourke .................................. 17. __Bernie Sanders .................................. 18. __Joe Sestak .......................................... 19. __Tom Steyer ....................................... 20. __Elizabeth Warren .............................. 21. __Marianne Williamson ....................... 22. __Andrew Yang .................................... 23. TOTAL FAV TOTAL UNFAV very fav smwt fav smwt unfav very unfav don’t know never heard 15 72 51 15 55 38 12 20 56 41 49 72 9 47 72 13 47 14 23 19 14 16 24 20 35 24 19 26 24 9 19 15 31 20 2 34 12 2 25 4 1 3 17 13 7 36 2 12 35 3 11 13 38 39 13 30 34 11 18 38 28 42 36 7 34 37 10 36 7 12 11 9 9 15 9 15 13 13 17 12 5 11 8 14 14 7 11 8 5 7 9 11 20 11 6 9 12 4 8 7 17 6 38 5 20 37 17 27 39 26 12 23 16 4 38 21 10 27 20 32 1 10 33 12 12 29 18 8 17 9 0 44 13 3 30 14 If the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucus for president were held today and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE] whom would you support, or are you undecided? [IF CANDIDATE SELECTED, ASK] Would you say you support [INSERT CANDIDATE] strongly or not so strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Toward whom do you lean? Michael Bennet ..................................................... Joe Biden .............................................................. Cory Booker ......................................................... Steve Bullock ....................................................... Pete Buttigieg ....................................................... Julián Castro ......................................................... John Delaney ........................................................ Tulsi Gabbard ....................................................... Kamala Harris ....................................................... Amy Klobuchar .................................................... Beto O’Rourke...................................................... Bernie Sanders ...................................................... Joe Sestak ............................................................ Tom Steyer ........................................................... Elizabeth Warren .................................................. Marianne Williamson ........................................... Andrew Yang........................................................ undecided .............................................................. TOTAL Strong Not strong Undec, lean 0 29 1 0 7 1 0 1 3 3 0 19 0 4 19 1 3 9 0 19 0 0 5 1 0 1 2 2 0 15 0 3 16 1 2 0 7 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 Nevada Democratic Caucus Survey (October 28 – November 2, 2019) Page 3 [ASK IF Q.23=1-17 CANDIDATE CHOSEN, NOT UNDECIDED] 24. Do you feel pretty certain about your choice or do you think you might consider some other candidate? Certain ................................................................... 44 Might consider another .......................................... 55 [VOL] don’t know ................................................ 1 [ASK IF Q.23=1-17 CANDIDATE CHOSEN, NOT UNDECIDED] 25. If [INSERT CANDIDATE CHOSEN] were not running for president, who would be your second choice? [RANDOMIZE ORDER – READ LIST – OMIT CANDIDATE CHOSEN IN Q.23] __Michael Bennet ................................................. 0 __Joe Biden .......................................................... 11 __Cory Booker ..................................................... 3 __Steve Bullock.................................................... 1 __Pete Buttigieg ................................................... 11 __Julián Castro ..................................................... 1 __John Delaney .................................................... 0 __Tulsi Gabbard ................................................... 1 __Kamala Harris ................................................... 7 __Amy Klobuchar ................................................ 4 __Beto O’Rourke.................................................. 2 __Bernie Sanders .................................................. 19 __Joe Sestak ......................................................... 0 __Tom Steyer ....................................................... 5 __Elizabeth Warren .............................................. 21 __Marianne Williamson ....................................... 0 __Andrew Yang.................................................... 4 [VOL] don’t know ............................................... 10 [RESUME ASKING EVERYONE] Nevada Democratic Caucus Survey (October 28 – November 2, 2019) Page 4 26. Regardless of who you are supporting, which of the following do you think would make the best president? __Michael Bennet ................................................. 0 __Joe Biden .......................................................... 27 __Cory Booker ..................................................... 1 __Steve Bullock.................................................... 0 __Pete Buttigieg ................................................... 8 __Julián Castro ..................................................... 1 __John Delaney .................................................... 0 __Tulsi Gabbard ................................................... 1 __Kamala Harris ................................................... 3 __Amy Klobuchar ................................................ 3 __Beto O’Rourke.................................................. 0 __Bernie Sanders .................................................. 17 __Joe Sestak ......................................................... 0 __Tom Steyer ....................................................... 4 __Elizabeth Warren .............................................. 18 __Marianne Williamson ....................................... 1 __Andrew Yang.................................................... 2 [VOL] don’t know ............................................... 13 [SPLIT SAMPLE A] 27. Which of the following is the most important for you when choosing a Democratic nominee for president? [AFTER RESPONSE, ASK] Which is the second most important? [READ AND ROTATE CHOICES BELOW, OMIT ANSWER FROM Q.30A] Q.27A Q.27B __has the best chance to beat Donald Trump ................................................... 33 14 __supports Medicare for all .............................................................................. 7 10 __will take on the corporations and special interests ....................................... 5 9 __will stand up for immigrants’ rights ............................................................. 7 6 __will take on the drug and insurance companies to lower prices and costs ... 5 9 __is ready to be commander in chief ............................................................... 4 6 __will work with both parties to get things done ............................................. 12 10 __a progressive who will stand up for their beliefs .......................................... 6 3 __ will make sure programs can be paid for without raising taxes on the middle class ...................................................................................................... 5 8 __will focus on addressing climate change ...................................................... 6 11 __will take on the NRA to reduce gun violence............................................... 5 6 [VOL] other...................................................................................................... 3 2 [VOL] don’t know ........................................................................................... 2 5 Nevada Democratic Caucus Survey (October 28 – November 2, 2019) Page 5 [SPLIT SAMPLE B] 28. Which of the following is the most important for you when choosing a Democratic nominee for president? [AFTER RESPONSE, ASK] Which is the second most important? [READ AND ROTATE CHOICES BELOW, OMIT ANSWER FROM Q.30A] Q.28A Q.28B __has the best chance to beat Donald Trump ................................................... 31 12 __supports Medicare for all .............................................................................. 9 13 __will take on the corporations and special interests ....................................... 4 9 __will stand up for immigrants’ rights ............................................................. 6 4 __will take on the drug and insurance companies to lower prices and costs ... 5 10 __is ready to be commander in chief ............................................................... 5 7 __will work with both parties to get things done ............................................. 17 13 __a progressive who will stand up for their beliefs .......................................... 7 6 __ will make sure programs can be paid for without raising taxes on the middle class ...................................................................................................... 2 6 __supports a Green New Deal .......................................................................... 4 3 __will take on the NRA to reduce gun violence ............................................... 3 6 [VOL] other...................................................................................................... 4 5 [VOL] don’t know ........................................................................................... 4 7 [RESUME ASKING EVERYONE] THANK YOU. THE FEW REMAINING QUESTIONS ARE FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES ONLY. 29. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats? strong Republican .................................................. 1 not so strong Republican ....................................... 0 independent leans Republican ............................... 1 independent............................................................ 5 independent leans Democratic ............................... 13 not so strong Democrat .......................................... 14 strong Democrat .................................................... 62 dk/na/other ............................................................. 2 TOTAL REPUBLICAN ...................................... 3 TOTAL INDEPENDENT ................................... 7 TOTAL DEMOCRAT ........................................ 90 Nevada Democratic Caucus Survey (October 28 – November 2, 2019) Page 6 30. Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative? [IF MODERATE, ASK:] Do you tend to lean toward the liberal or conservative side? very liberal ............................................................. 28 somewhat liberal .................................................... 28 moderate leans liberal ............................................ 11 moderate ................................................................ 23 moderate leans conservative .................................. 2 somewhat conservative .......................................... 4 very conservative ................................................... 2 dk/ref...................................................................... 3 TOTAL LIBERAL .............................................. 67 TOTAL MODERATE......................................... 25 TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ................................ 8 31. What was the last level of schooling you completed? less than high school graduate ............................... high school graduate .............................................. vocational training/vocational school .................... some college, but no degree .................................. a 2-year or associate degree ................................... a 4-year or bachelor’s degree................................. a post-graduate degree ........................................... na ........................................................................... 2 15 3 20 12 26 22 1 Are you Latino, Hispanic, or of Spanish descent? Yes ......................................................................... No .......................................................................... Dk .......................................................................... 21 77 2 32. 33. Are you black, white, Asian, Native American or some other race? Black ...................................................................... 13 White ..................................................................... 58 Asian ...................................................................... 4 Native American .................................................... 1 Other ...................................................................... 21 Ref ......................................................................... 3 Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good day.