Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey November 2019 Key Findings: 1. With the 2020 Presidential Election less than 1 year away, a solid majority (57%) of registered voters in Pennsylvania do not believe that Donald Trump deserves reelection for another term as President of the United States. 2. In matchups with three leading Democrat challengers President Trump trails his opponents, with former Vice President Joe Biden holding a 9 point lead over the President and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders holding 5 point leads over Trump. 3. While holding advantages over President Trump in head-to-head matchups, Biden, Warren and Sanders all struggle with favorability rating among Pennsylvania voters with more voters holding unfavorable rather than favorable views of each potential Democratic nominee. 4. Pennsylvania voters are in essence equally divided on whether or not President Trump should be impeached and removed from office. 5. Just under 6 out of 10 Pennsylvania voters (59%) indicate that President Trump can’t be trusted. Methodological Statement: The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 410 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between November 4 and 9, 2019. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (157) and cell phones (253). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6.0% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The response rate for this survey as calculated using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) RRII formula is approximately 9%. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO is conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at cborick@muhlenberg.edu Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Fall 2019 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Poll Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST) 1. Democrat………………………………… 47% 2. Republican………………………………. 40% 3. Independent ………………………………10% 4. Other Party………………………………. 3% Q2: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE) First, Donald Trump 1. Favorable………………………………..43% 2. Unfavorable……………………………..54% 3. Neutral/Not Sure………………………... 3% Q3: Next, Joe Biden 1. Favorable………………………………..43% 2. Unfavorable……………………………..45% 3. Neutral/Not Sure……………………….. 12% 4. Haven't Heard of Him………………….. <1% Q4: Elizabeth Warren 1. Favorable………………………………..38% 2. Unfavorable……………………………..47% 3. Neutral/Not Sure………………………...13% 4. Haven't Heard of Her…………………… 2% Q5: and Bernie Sanders? 1. Favorable…………………………………41% 2. Unfavorable………………………………50% 3. Neutral/Not Sure………………………… 9% 4. Haven't Heard of Him…………………… 1% Q6: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? 1. Approve………………………………… 40% 2. Disapprove……………………………… 56% 3. No opinion (Volunteered)………………. 4% Q7: Do you think Donald Trump deserves to be re-elected as President, or not? 1. Deserves re-election………………..42% 2. Does not deserve re-elected………..57% 3. Not Sure…………………………… 2% (ROTATE Q8-10) Q8: Now, if the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) 1. Trump……………………………………..43% 2. Biden……………………………………...52% 3. Neither/Other (VOL)……………………. 4% 4. Not Sure (VOL)…………………………... 2% Q9: And if the race was between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) 1. Trump………………………………………45% 2. Sanders……………………………………..50% 3. Neither/Other (VOL)………………………. 4% 4. Not Sure (VOL)……………………………. 1% Q10: And if the race was between Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) 1. Trump……………………………………… 45% 2. Warren……………………………………... 50% 3. Neither/Other (VOL)………………………. 4% 4. Not Sure (VOL)……………………………. 1% Q11: What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump? (Open Ended) (CODED INTO THEMATIC CATEGORIES) 1. Arrogant/Pompous/Jerk….…………………. 12% 2. Idiot/Moron…………………………………. 11% 3. Effective/Accomplished…………………….. 7% 4. Corrupt/Criminal……………………………. 7% 5. Great/Awesome/Good………………………. 7% 6. Liar/Dishonest………………………………. 6% 7. Disgusting/Terrible…………………………. 4% 8. Leader/Strong………………………………. 3% 9. Narcissist/Egomaniac………………………. 3% 10. President……………………………………. 3% 11. American/Patriot…………………………… 3% 12. Impeachment………………………………. 2% 13. Prejudiced/Bigot…………………………… 2% 14. Businessman……………………………….. 2% 15. Incompetent………………………………... 2% 16. Awful/Bad…………………………………. 2% 17. Crazy/Unfit………………………………… 2% 18. Smart/Intelligent…………………………… 2% 19. Good Economy…………………………….. 1% 20. Other Positive……………………………… 8% 21. Other Negative…………………………….. 7% 22. Other Neutral………………………………. 3% 23. Not Sure……………………………………. 2% Q12: As you may know, the House of Representatives has begun a formal impeachment inquiry to determine whether or not to bring impeachment charges against President Trump. Do you approve or disapprove of this impeachment inquiry? 1. Approve……………………….51% 2. Disapprove…………………….47% 3. Not Sure (Volunteered)……….. 2% Q13: Based on what you have read or heard, do you believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you feel that way? 1. Should be impeached…………..49% 2. Should not be impeached………48% 3. Not Sure (Volunteered)………... 3% Now I would like to read a few descriptions of Donald Trump. For each description I read please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the description of Donald Trump. First: (Rotate) Strongly Agree Somewhat Somewhat Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure Q14: Trump is dividing the country. 49% 11% 6% 34% 1% Q15: Trump only cares about himself. 47% 7% 8% 38% 1% Q16: Trump is being treated unfairly 39% 6% 13% 40% 2% Q17. Trump can’t be trusted. 48% 11% 7% 33% 1% Next I’m going to read a list of functions that a President often performs in office. For each function that I mention please tell me if you think that Donald Trump has been be excellent, good, fair or poor at performing that function. First: (ROTATE) Excellent Good Fair Poor Q18. Serving as commander in chief. Q19. Negotiating with hostile nations. Q20. Improving health insurance coverage. Q21. Creating jobs. 30% 29% 11% 37% 13% 13% 15% 13% 11% 13% 15% 19% 46% 43% 52% 25% Not Sure 1% 3% 7% 5% Q22. Improving economic conditions for the middle class. Q23. Dealing with illegal immigration. 29% 14% 12% 44% 2% 28% 12% 6% 53% 2% Q24: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. White/Caucasian…………..80% 2. African-American………… 8% 3. Hispanic…………………… 5% 4. Asian……………………… 1% 5. Native American………….. 1% 6. Mixed race………………… 3% 7. or other……………………. 2% Q25: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. Catholic………………………………. 28% 2. Protestant……………………………... 30% 3. Jewish………………………………… 4% 4. Muslim……………………………….. 1% 5. Hindu………………………………….<1% 6. Other Religion (Including agnostic)….. 26% 7. or Atheist ……………………………... 8% 8. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………... 3% Q26: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST) 1. Less than High School…………………. 1% 2. High School Graduate…………………..33% 3. Some college or technical school……… 31% 4. College graduate (4 yr only)…………... 22% 5. Graduate or professional degree………. 14% Q27: In the 2016 Presidential election did you vote for: 1. 2. 3. 4. Donald Trump…………………………………………..41% Hillary Clinton………………………………………….42% Another Candidate……………………………………... 5% Or did you not vote in the 2016 presidential election…..11% Q28: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)? 1. Under $20,000…………………………11% 2. $20,000-$40,000……………………….16% 3. $40,000-$60,000……………………….21% 4. $60,000-$80,000……………………….18% 5. $80,000-$100,000……………………...10% 6. Over $100,000………………………….22% 7. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………... 2% Q29: In which of the following age categories does your current age fall. READ LIST _______ 1. 18-29……………..15% 2. 30-49……………..25% 3. 50-65……………..33% 4. or Over 65………..26% Q30: Finally to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST) 1. Male………………………………………………………49% 2. Female……………………………………………………51% 3. Or another category besides Male or Female…………….<1% SELECTED CROSSTABS President Trump Approval Ratings Approve Disapprove Not Sure OVERALL 40% 56% 4% Male (49%) 47% 50% 3% Female (51%) 34% 62% 4% Democrat (47%) 7% 92% 1% Republican (40%) 79% 17% 4% Independent (10%) 33% 55% 12% College Degree (35%) 28% 67% 5% No College Degree (65%) 47% 50% 3% White (79%) 47% 51% 3% Non-White (21%) 17% 77% 7% Philadelphia (13%) 4% 96% 0% Philadelphia Suburbs (21%) 28% 66% 6% Alleghany County (11%) 41% 57% 2% Northeast PA (13%) 72% 24% 4% Remainder of State (42%) 48% 49% 4% 18-29 (15%) 21% 76% 3% 30-49 (25%) 33% 63% 4% 50-64 (33% 51% 46% 4% 65 and Over (26%) 46% 51% 3% Trump vs. Biden Trump Biden Neither/Other/Not Sure OVERALL 43% 52% 6% Male (49%) 50% 45% 6% Female (51%) 37% 58% 5% Democrat (47%) 7% 88% 6% Republican (40%) 86% 13% 1% Independent (10%) 36% 50% 14% College Degree (35%) 32% 63% 5% No College Degree (65%) 49% 45% 6% White (79%) 50% 46% 5% Non-White (21%) 19% 73% 8% Philadelphia (13%) 6% 89% 6% Philadelphia Suburbs (21%) 36% 57% 7% Alleghany County (11%) 39% 60% 2% Northeast PA (13%) 74% 24% 0% Remainder of State (42%) 50% 44% 6% 18-29 (15%) 26% 68% 7% 30-49 (25%) 38% 52% 10% 50-64 (33%) 50% 47% 4% 65 and Over (26%) 51% 47% 3% Trump vs. Sanders Trump Sanders Neither/Other/Not Sure OVERALL 45% 50% 5% Male (49%) 51% 46% 4% Female (51%) 41% 54% 5% Democrat (47%) 13% 83% 5% Republican (40%) 86% 10% 4% Independent (10%) 33% 64% 2% College Degree (35%) 32% 60% 8% No College Degree (65%) 52% 45% 3% White (79%) 51% 44% 5% Non-White (21%) 22% 73% 5% Philadelphia (13%) 9% 87% 4% Philadelphia Suburbs (21%) 37% 57% 6% Alleghany County (11%) 44% 51% 4% Northeast PA (13%) 76% 24% 0% Remainder of State (42%) 51% 43% 6% 18-29 (15%) 32% 67% 2% 30-49 (25%) 38% 58% 4% 50-64 (33%) 52% 43% 5% 65 and Over (26%) 52% 42% 6% Trump vs. Warren Trump Warren Neither/Other/Not Sure OVERALL 45% 50% 5% Male (49%) 51% 44% 6% Female (51%) 39% 56% 6% Democrat (47%) 11% 83% 6% Republican (40%) 85% 11% 4% Independent (10%) 37% 56% 7% College Degree (35%) 32% 64% 4% No College Degree (65%) 52% 42% 6% White (79%) 51% 44% 5% Non-White (21%) 20% 71% 9% Philadelphia (13%) 9% 85% 6% Philadelphia Suburbs (21%) 40% 57% 2% Alleghany County (11%) 42% 51% 7% Northeast PA (13%) 76% 24% 0% Remainder of State (42%) 49% 45% 7% 18-29 (15%) 31% 65% 5% 30-49 (25%) 37% 59% 4% 50-64 (33%) 50% 42% 7% 65 and Over (26%) 52% 42% 6% TRUMP IMPEACHMENT AND REMOVAL Should Be Impeached and Removed Should Not Be Impeached and Removed Not Sure OVERALL 49% 48% 3% Male (49%) 45% 52% 3% Female (51%) 52% 44% 4% Democrat (47%) 80% 15% 5% Republican (40%) 14% 86% 1% Independent (10%) 50% 45% 5% College Degree (35%) 58% 37% 5% No College Degree (65%) 44% 54% 2% White (79%) 43% 54% 3% Non-White (21%) 70% 26% 5% Philadelphia (13%) 89% 8% 4% Philadelphia Suburbs (21%) 58% 38% 3% Alleghany County (11%) 50% 46% 5% Northeast PA (13%) 23% 77% 0% Remainder of State (42%) 40% 58% 3% 18-29 (15%) 61% 36% 3% 30-49 (25%) 53% 43% 4% 50-64 (33%) 43% 54% 3% 65 and Over (26%) 44% 52% 4%