Strategy Overview Iowa Values - 2019 The 2020 Election Cycle is upon us and Iowa Values is approaching 2020 with an effort to be data driven and people focused. Instead of building down from a broad-based television ad campaign we will build up from a person to person ground game focusing on the most critical segments of the electorate critical to the advancement of our issues and the candidates that support them. There is no shortage of television ads, particularly at the end of an election cycle. Often outside organizations throw good money after bad as a means of ‘helping’. This is too often at a certain point ineffective and inefficient. Iowa Values will be data driven. At this point in the election cycle we don’t need to communicate with all voters. We do however need to identify and communicate directly with specific segments of the electorate that will be determinant in winning or losing in 2020. Our focus, particularly in 2019, will be to determine what those voters care most about and to communicate with them directly. The mistake often made by entities such as Iowa Values is that we can shape opinion and action simply by bombarding the airways in the end of an election cycle. Our goal is to isolate the ‘firewall’ slice of the electorate, learn more about them and begin to message them directly this year. Iowa Values will focus on ground game. It has been proven time and time again that the most effective political communication is the when it is most personal. Our intent is to build a ground game apparatus that not only takes messages to doors of the ‘firewall’ universe but also begins to develop a relationship with these targeted voters. We are already taking steps to develop a paid door to door effort which incorporates people from Iowa, from the neighborhoods and areas we are targeting. This person to person communication will be invaluable. In addition, Iowa Values is developing a complimentary long-term digital messaging plan. The same ‘firewall’ universe of voter will receive a sophisticated digital messaging plan. Operation Firewall Post 2018 Election punditry has focused specifically on GOP losses in the suburbs among college educated women. As recently as November 14, 2018 Senator Lindsay Graham said in a Politico article ‘We have to solve the Suburban Women Problem’. This is true but overly simple. These are voters that lean Republican on the issues but lean away from the GOP at times on the tone of the GOP. We call these voters ‘disengagers’. They are an irreplaceable part of a winning coalition and represent the ‘firewall’ between winning and losing in 2020 for Senator Ernst. Utilizing national data available to us we have identified 126,407 ‘Disengagers’ in Iowa at the time this memo was written. Senator Ernst won Iowa in 2014 by 94,205 votes in what was a good year for Republicans. These 126,407 voters are primarily from Senator Ernst’s winning coalition in 2014 and the most vulnerable to being peeled off in 2020. The basis of our mission is to shore up those voters through sustained direct communications. We believe it is critical to start this messaging now in order to provide these voters with the information they will need to be able to fend off the disinformation attacks that will come in 2020. This slow-drip, long range approach is a more efficient way to speak to these voters. Iowa GOP Disengagers Heat Map by Zip Code lamb I?r-ij?i-i ??u-na-Hmh It gun?ght? Jill-J? Wi- J??ayf-Twg??t?a?gn?m?-gAG? ?533%? gw??m i 1 Iowa Values 2019 Political Plan Outline OPERATION FIREWALL PROJECT START MESSAGING START BASELINE POLL FAIR COVERAGE BEGIN BASELINE MODELING PROJECT MODEL RETRAIN 1 2Jan 2 Feb 2Mar 2Apr 2May 2Jun 2Ju 2Aug 2Sep 20cI 2NOV 2Dec TARGETED GEO-FENCING START DIGITAL IA OPINION SURVEY MODELING 2019 AFTER AOTION ANALYSIS PHASE 1 DOOR TO DOOR PROGRAM Looking Forward to 2020 In 2020 Iowa Values will continue to monitor the electorate as it changes throughout the election cycle. This will allow us to make sure we are putting resources in front of the most critical voters even as the electorate changes and to measure the effectiveness of our own programs. Iowa Values will pick up the task of GOTV in 2020 in addition to the continued focus on ‘Disengagers’. Ultimately, we will build a complete campaign that would include smart television and radio buys. We believe that there is critical work with segments of the electorate that must begin now in 2019 so that Senator Ernst has the best possible jumping off point in 2020.