DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
500 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.4 percentage points

Study #2202
November 8-13, 2019
2,012 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and congressional district

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
[Ask all.] How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential
candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, might or might not attend, or
probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the
Republican caucus?
Dec-18, Mar-19: How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates
will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:)
Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? [Mar-19: Note to interviewer: If respondent asks, virtually or in
person? The words I have are “attend.” In other words, offer no further clarification.]
#Jun-19: This year the Democratic caucuses will be a little different. In addition to the regular meetings on caucus night, the
Democratic Party of Iowa will convene virtual caucuses to take place online or by phone on several days leading up to the
traditional, in-person caucus meetings on February 3rd. Do you think you would definitely participate in the 2020 caucuses—
either in person or in a virtual caucus—probably participate, might or might not participate, or probably not participate?
Sep-19: First, how likely is it you will attend the Democratic party caucuses scheduled for February of 2020—will you definitely
attend, probably attend, might or might not attend, or probably not attend?
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Probably
Definitely
Probably
Might or
attend
attend
attend
might not
Democratic
Republican
Republican
attend a
caucus
caucus
caucus
caucus

Probably
not attend a
caucus

Don’t know
which
caucus will
attend

Not
sure

63

37

-

-

-

-

-

-

60
62
50
57

40
38
50
43

n/a
n/a
-

n/a
n/a
-

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

-

-

-

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1 OF 9

 [Ask all.] How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential
candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, might or might not attend, or
probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the
Republican caucus?
Dec-18, Mar-19: How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates
will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:)
Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? [Mar-19: Note to interviewer: If respondent asks, virtually or in
person? The words I have are “attend.” In other words, offer no further clarification.]
Among Registered Republicans
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
Nov-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

Might or
might not
attend a
caucus

Probably
not attend a
caucus

Don’t know
which caucus
will attend

Not
sure

-

-

15

15

15

50

2

2

-

-

19
23

27
24

n/a
n/a

47
47

3
3

3
3

Have you in the past attended party caucuses to show your preference for
presidential candidates, or would this be your first time to participate? (If attended in the past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both?
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Mar-19, Jun-19: Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both?
Attended
Republican caucus
in the past

Attended
Democratic caucus
in the past

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not
sure

4

57

9

30

-

8
4
6
11

64
72
62
60

9
7
7
7

19
17
25
21

1
-

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if
your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)
Comparisons to the final poll of the 2016 caucus cycle are included where available. Among likely Democratic caucusgoers in late Jan-16:
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians, including presidential candidates. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very
favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable.
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Michael Bennet, U.S. senator from
Colorado
Joe Biden, former vice president of the
United States

Joe Biden

Fav

Unf

Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Not
Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

5

20

19

8

47

3
3
3

17
16
15

15
9
5

7
3
2

57
70
75

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

24

40

19

14

3

29
34
45
47
41

38
38
37
35
40

17
14
8
11
7

12
10
6
4
5

5
4
4
4
7

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2 OF 9

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of
New York City

Fav

Unf

Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Not
Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure

Nov-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

5

14

28

30

23

3
8
2

24
32
15

27
20
17

11
11
9

34
29
57

Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New
Jersey

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

14

38

20

9

19

18
20
13
18

42
35
39
31

14
13
9
6

8
6
5
6

18
26
33
39

Steve Bullock, governor of Montana

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

5

19

18

8

50

4
5
2
2

14
14
8
9

16
8
8
5

7
2
3
3

59
71
79
82

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend,
Indiana

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

42

30

10

6

12

33
32
5

35
29
12

8
7
7

5
5
4

18
26
73

Julián Castro, former U.S. secretary of
Housing and Urban Development

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

8

26

24

11

30

5
7
7
6

30
27
27
21

24
10
5
7

12
4
3
3

29
53
58
63

John Delaney, former U.S. representative
from Maryland

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

3

15

22

12

48

3
6
5
6

14
21
22
19

23
13
8
7

11
5
5
4

49
55
61
64

Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. representative from
Hawaii

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

7

18

28

17

30

6
5
5

20
18
17

21
11
9

10
9
6

43
57
64

Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from
California

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

16

39

16

15

13

23
31
23
19

40
32
35
29

15
8
4
6

9
5
5
4

13
23
33
41

Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from
Minnesota

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

20

33

16

8

24

17
12
13
16

36
32
30
22

16
14
9
5

6
4
6
3

26
38
41
54

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

31

30

23

12

4

26
32
37
43
42

33
37
34
31
40

24
17
16
12
8

13
8
9
10
4

5
5
4
4
6

Nov-19
Sep-19

2

6

16

7

69

2

5

14

8

72

Michael Bloomberg

John Delaney, U.S. congressman from Maryland

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont

Bernie Sanders

Joe Sestak, former U.S. representative
from Pennsylvania

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3 OF 9

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Tom Steyer, businessman
Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager and activist

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren

Marianne Williamson, author
Marianne Williamson, author and activist

Andrew Yang, businessman

Fav

Unf

Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Not
Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure

Nov-19
Sep-19
Dec-18

10

27

24

15

24

7
5

19
15

21
14

11
6

41
61

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

36

34

14

11

5

44
38
25
30
30

31
33
38
353
17

11
10
12
7
4

7
7
8
16
3

8
12
17
14
46

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

4

7

22

25

41

2
2
1

7
7
7

25
11
7

23
7
4

42
73
80

Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

11

33

23

10

24

7
5
2
1

29
14
5
4

22
10
7
6

10
5
5
6

32
66
81
83

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4 OF 9

 Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If None of these or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
(Ask all.) I’m going to read the list one more time, excluding any names you may have already mentioned. This
time, please tell me if the person is someone you are actively considering or not. Just answer yes or no. (Read list,
excluding answers to first and second choice questions. Mark all yeses. Same order as first choice question.)

Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers.

First
Choice

Second
Choice

Michael Bennet

Total selecting as
either first or
second choice
(added across
columns,
not recalculated)

Actively
considering

Candidate
footprint
(Added
across
columns, not
recalculated:
1st/2nd choice
and actively
considering)

Nov-19
1
*
1
10
11
Sep-19
*
1
1
8
9
#Jun-19
1
*
1
8
9
Mar-19
1
1
2
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Joe Biden
15
13
28
30
58
Sep-19
20
10
30
30
60
#Jun-19
23
13
36
25
61
Mar-19
27
19
46
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
32
18
50
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Michael Bloomberg
2
1
3
11
14
Dec-18
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Cory Booker
3
3
6
30
36
Sep-19
3
4
7
35
42
#Jun-19
1
6
7
36
43
Mar-19
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
4
7
11
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Steve Bullock
*
*
*
8
8
Sep-19
1
*
1
8
9
#Jun-19
*
1
1
9
10
Mar-19
1
0
1
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
0
0
0
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Pete Buttigieg
25
14
39
29
68
Sep-19
9
9
18
37
55
#Jun-19
15
9
24
28
52
Mar-19
1
1
2
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Julián Castro
*
1
1
17
18
Sep-19
1
1
2
20
22
#Jun-19
1
*
1
20
21
Mar-19
1
2
3
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
1
*
1
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
John Delaney
0
*
*
7
7
Sep-19
1
*
1
9
10
#Jun-19
1
1
2
16
18
Mar-19
1
*
1
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
1
*
1
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Tulsi Gabbard
3
3
6
11
17
Sep-19
2
1
3
12
15
#Jun-19
*
2
2
12
14
Mar-19
*
2
2
n/a
n/a
A zero (0) in the horserace question indicates the candidate received no responses. An asterisk (*) indicates at least one respondent selected
the candidate, but the percentage rounds down to zero (<0.5%).

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 5 OF 9

 Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers.

First
Choice

Second
Choice

Kamala Harris

Total selecting as
either first or
second choice
(added across
columns,
not recalculated)

Actively
considering

Candidate
footprint
(Added
across
columns, not
recalculated:
1st/2nd choice
and actively
considering)

Nov-19
3
7
10
36
46
Sep-19
6
10
16
39
55
#Jun-19
6
14
20
32
52
Mar-19
7
11
18
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
5
6
11
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Amy Klobuchar
6
6
12
27
39
Sep-19
3
4
7
30
37
#Jun-19
2
1
3
29
32
Mar-19
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
3
2
5
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Bernie Sanders
15
13
28
26
54
Sep-19
11
10
21
29
50
#Jun-19
16
11
27
29
56
Mar-19
25
13
38
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
19
14
33
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Joe Sestak
*
0
*
3
3
Sep-19
0
*
*
4
4
Nov-19
Tom Steyer
3
3
6
20
26
Sep-19
2
1
3
18
21
Dec-18
*
1
1
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Elizabeth Warren
16
20
36
30
66
Sep-19
22
20
42
29
71
#Jun-19
15
14
29
32
61
Mar-19
9
12
21
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
8
10
18
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
Marianne Williamson
0
1
1
6
7
6
6
Sep-19
*
*
*
6
6
#Jun-19
0
*
*
n/a
n/a
Mar-19
*
0
*
Nov-19
Andrew Yang
3
2
5
28
33
Sep-19
2
2
4
20
24
#Jun-19
1
1
2
13
15
Mar-19
*
*
*
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
*
1
1
n/a
n/a
Nov-19
None of these (VOL)
2
2
13
Sep-19
2
1
13
#Jun-19
7
2
8
Mar-19
3
2
n/a
Dec-18
4
3
n/a
Nov-19
Not sure
5
3
2
Sep-19
14
7
2
#Jun-19
6
5
5
Mar-19
10
6
n/a
Dec-18
6
6
n/a
Nov-19
No first choice
n/a
7
Sep-19
n/a
16
#Jun-19
n/a
13
Mar-19
n/a
13
Dec-18
n/a
10
A zero (0) in the horserace question indicates the candidate received no responses. An asterisk (*) indicates at least one respondent selected
the candidate, but the percentage rounds down to zero (<0.5%).

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 6 OF 9

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. How

would you describe your level of enthusiasm for your first-choice
candidate [CANDIDATE NAME]—are you extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, mildly enthusiastic, or
not that enthusiastic? (Asked only of those who selected a first-choice candidate, but total based on all.)
Extremely
enthusiastic
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19

Very
enthusiastic

Mildly
enthusiastic

Not that
enthusiastic

Not
sure

No first-choice
candidate

31

42

17

2

1

7

28
31

39
41

16
12

2
1

1

16
13

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Regardless

of your level of enthusiasm, would you say your mind is made
up to support [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE] or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate
as your first choice? (Asked only of those who selected a first-choice candidate, but total based on all.)
Mind is
made up
Nov-19
Sep-19

Could be
persuaded

Not
sure

No first-choice candidate

30

62

1

7

20

63

1

16

I’m going to mention these candidates again. For each, I’d like you to tell me if you think the person’s political
views are too liberal, about right, or too conservative. (Rotate list.)
Too
Liberal

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Joe Biden

Nov-19
Mar-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Mar-19
Nov-19
Mar-19

Pete Buttigieg
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Which is

Too
Conservative

Not
Sure

7

55

28

11

6

70

14

10

7
53

63
37

13
3

17
6

44

48

2

7

38

48

4

10

23

54

4

19

more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.)

That the winner of the Iowa Democratic
caucus be a candidate for president with a
strong chance of beating Donald Trump
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Dec-18

About
Right

That the winner of the Iowa Democratic
caucus be a candidate for president who
shares your positions on major issues

Not
Sure

63

32

4

63
65
54

31
31
40

6
4
6

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Thinking about

the way a candidate for president might approach their
policy positions, would you rather see the Democratic presidential nominee: (Read choices. Do not rotate.)
36
52
11

Advocate for policies that would result in big changes, even if they have a lower chance of
becoming law
Advocate for policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes they make
aren’t as big
Not sure

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 7 OF 9

 For each of the following potential Democratic nominees, please tell me how confident you are the person could
beat Donald Trump—do you feel almost certain the person will beat Donald Trump, fairly confident, not very
confident, or are you almost certain that the Democrat will lose? (Read list. Rotate.)
Almost
Certain to
Beat

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

Nov-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Nov-19

25
16
17
15

Fairly
Confident

27
30
23
31

Not Very
Confident

22
24
22
22

Almost
Certain to
Lose

21
19
31
24

Not
Sure

5
10
6
8

Likely Democratic caucusgoers
Compared to:
Study #2196
602 likely Democratic caucusgoers

September 14-18, 2019
3,510 active registered voter contacts
Margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points

weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
Study #2190
433 Likely in-person Democratic caucus attenders
Margin of error: ±4.7 percentage points

June 2-5, 2019
3,776 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2185
401 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±5.0 percentage points

March 3-6, 2019
1,618 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and sex

Study #2182
455 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points

December 10-13, 2018
1,838 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and congressional district

Study #2133
602 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points for

January 26-29, 2016
3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #1921
399 Democratic likely caucus-goers
Margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points

October 1-3, 2007

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 8 OF 9

 ABOUT THE POLL
The Iowa Poll, conducted November 8-13, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of
Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or
probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,012 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s
voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews
were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their
proportions among active voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 500 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum
margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same
questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by
more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or
age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 9 OF 9