SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire FINAL NH NOVEMBER Region: (N=500) n West/North ------------------------------------------------------- 116 Central ------------------------------------------------------------ 128 Hillsborough------------------------------------------------------ 142 Rockingham------------------------------------------------------ 114 % 23.20 25.60 28.40 22.80 INTRO SECTION> Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk (SUFF-ick) University and the Boston Globe and I would like to get your opinions on some questions about the upcoming Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some brief questions? (quota) A. 1. Are you a resident of New Hampshire? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 500 % 100.00 Gender (N=500) n Male ---------------------------------------------------------------- 216 Female ------------------------------------------------------------ 284 % 43.20 56.80 2. Thinking about the Democratic Primary for President coming up in ten weeks, how likely are you to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary – would you say you are very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely to vote in the Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Very likely--------------------------------------------------------- 429 85.80 Somewhat likely -------------------------------------------------- 71 14.20 3. Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, or Undeclared/Independent? Or are you not registered to vote yet? (N=500) n % Democrat --------------------------------------------------------- 245 49.00 Republican ----------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Undeclared/Independent ------------------------------------- 248 49.60 Not registered yet --------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 4. Do you plan to vote at the polls on primary election day or do you plan to vote by absentee ballot before the primary? (N=500) n % At polls ------------------------------------------------------------ 437 87.40 Absentee ballot---------------------------------------------------- 44 8.80 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.80 5. What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-25 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 45 26-35 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 76 36-45 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 98 46-55 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 103 56-65 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 81 66-75 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 66 Over 75 Years ----------------------------------------------------- 28 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 1 of 7 % 9.00 15.20 19.60 20.60 16.20 13.20 5.60 0.60 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire 6. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? (N=500) n White/Caucasian ------------------------------------------------ 446 Black/African-American ------------------------------------------- 9 American Indian/Alaska Native ---------------------------------- 6 Asian ------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander ----------------------- 5 Hispanic/Latino ---------------------------------------------------- 11 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 13 % 89.20 1.80 1.20 1.40 1.00 2.20 0.60 2.60 7. I’m going to read you a list of the major candidates who are certified on the New Hampshire Democratic ballot for president. Please tell me who you would vote for or lean toward at this point. If you know who you would vote for, feel free to stop me at any time. (ROTATE) (N=500) n % Michael Bennet ------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Joe Biden ----------------------------------------------------------- 60 12.00 Cory Booker-------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 Steve Bullock -------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 Pete Buttigieg------------------------------------------------------ 67 13.40 Julian Castro --------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 John Delaney -------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------- 31 6.20 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 14 2.80 Amy Klobuchar ------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.20 Deval Patrick--------------------------------------------------------- 6 1.20 Bernie Sanders ---------------------------------------------------- 78 15.60 Joe Sestak ----------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Tom Steyer -------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------------------- 69 13.80 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 Andrew Yang ------------------------------------------------------ 19 3.80 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 106 21.20 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 8. Thinking about your first choice, is your mind firmly made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? {QUESTION ASKED ONLY TO RESPONDENTS WITH A FIRST CHOICE} (N=391) n % Mind made up --------------------------------------------------- 167 42.71 Might change mind before the primary -------------------- 209 53.45 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 14 3.58 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.26 9. Who would be your second choice? Likely Democratic Primary Voters 2 of 7 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire (Exclude answer from Q7 as an option, respondents must pick another candidate) {QUESTION ASKED ONLY TO RESPONDENTS WITH A FIRST CHOICE} (N=391) n % Michael Bennet ------------------------------------------------------ 3 0.77 Joe Biden ----------------------------------------------------------- 38 9.72 Cory Booker-------------------------------------------------------- 22 5.63 Steve Bullock -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.26 Pete Buttigieg------------------------------------------------------ 52 13.30 Julian Castro --------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.51 John Delaney -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.26 Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------- 13 3.32 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 14 3.58 Amy Klobuchar ---------------------------------------------------- 18 4.60 Deval Patrick--------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.05 Bernie Sanders ---------------------------------------------------- 52 13.30 Joe Sestak ----------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.51 Tom Steyer ---------------------------------------------------------- 6 1.53 Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------------------- 60 15.35 Marianne Williamson ---------------------------------------------- 3 0.77 Andrew Yang ------------------------------------------------------ 14 3.58 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.77 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 74 18.93 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.28 10. What would you say is the most important issue facing the country? (RANDOMIZE AND READ LIST) (N=500) n % Healthcare -------------------------------------------------------- 107 21.40 The economy ------------------------------------------------------ 64 12.80 Income inequality ------------------------------------------------- 45 9.00 Immigration--------------------------------------------------------- 27 5.40 Trade policy -------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 National security -------------------------------------------------- 23 4.60 Climate change --------------------------------------------------- 91 18.20 Impeaching President Trump ---------------------------------- 91 18.20 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 28 5.60 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.60 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 (FOR 7.1 - 7.17) 11. Earlier you selected (INSERT) as your first choice to be the Democratic nominee. If the Democratic party doesn’t nominate (INSERT), who will you vote for in the general election - will you vote for the Democratic nominee, President Trump, a third party candidate, or will you skip voting in November? (N=381) n % Democratic nominee ------------------------------------------- 259 67.98 President Trump -------------------------------------------------- 25 6.56 Third Party Candidate ------------------------------------------- 36 9.45 Skip voting in November ---------------------------------------- 10 2.62 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 50 13.12 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.26 12. Have you attended an event for one or more of the candidates for president – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 132 26.40 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 367 73.40 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 3 of 7 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe 13. New Hampshire Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 Have you heard from any of the campaigns directly – yes or no? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 281 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 216 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 2 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 % 56.20 43.20 0.40 0.20 (IF YES, 13.1) 14. Which campaigns specifically? (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES) (N=281) n Michael Bennet ------------------------------------------------------ 8 Joe Biden ----------------------------------------------------------- 70 Cory Booker-------------------------------------------------------- 42 Steve Bullock -------------------------------------------------------- 4 Pete Buttigieg------------------------------------------------------ 81 Julian Castro --------------------------------------------------------- 8 John Delaney -------------------------------------------------------- 9 Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------- 27 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 39 Amy Klobuchar ---------------------------------------------------- 35 Deval Patrick--------------------------------------------------------- 4 Bernie Sanders -------------------------------------------------- 105 Joe Sestak ----------------------------------------------------------- 4 Tom Steyer -------------------------------------------------------- 25 Elizabeth Warren ----------------------------------------------- 110 Marianne Williamson -------------------------------------------- 13 Andrew Yang ------------------------------------------------------ 57 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 17 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 15. % 2.85 24.91 14.95 1.42 28.83 2.85 3.20 9.61 13.88 12.46 1.42 37.37 1.42 8.90 39.15 4.63 20.28 4.27 6.05 1.07 A couple of days ago, a Democratic debate hosted by MSNBC and the Washington Post took place in Atlanta. Did you watch the debate – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 151 30.20 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 348 69.60 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 (FOR 15.1) 16. Who did better than you expected? (If they mention anyone else not listed remind them that they did not make the debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF RESPONDENT CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=151) n % Joe Biden ----------------------------------------------------------- 11 7.28 Cory Booker-------------------------------------------------------- 24 15.89 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 4 of 7 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Pete Buttigieg------------------------------------------------------ 35 Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------- 17 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 19 Amy Klobuchar ---------------------------------------------------- 23 Bernie Sanders ------------------------------------------------------ 9 Tom Steyer ----------------------------------------------------------- 3 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------- 6 Andrew Yang ------------------------------------------------------ 15 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 24 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 2 23.18 11.26 12.58 15.23 5.96 1.99 3.97 9.93 0.66 15.89 1.32 (FOR 15.1) 17. Who did worse than you expected? ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF RESPONDENT CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=151) n % Joe Biden ----------------------------------------------------------- 66 43.71 Cory Booker---------------------------------------------------------- 8 5.30 Pete Buttigieg-------------------------------------------------------- 5 3.31 Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------- 16 10.60 Kamala Harris ----------------------------------------------------- 20 13.25 Amy Klobuchar ------------------------------------------------------ 3 1.99 Bernie Sanders ------------------------------------------------------ 4 2.65 Tom Steyer ----------------------------------------------------------- 4 2.65 Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------------------- 11 7.28 Andrew Yang -------------------------------------------------------- 4 2.65 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.66 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 26 17.22 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 2 1.32 18. Thinking about the presidential race, which comes closest to your opinion? (ROTATE LIST) (N=500) n % Male and female candidates are held to the same standard ----------------------------------------------------- 195 39.00 Female candidates are held to a higher standard ------ 226 45.20 Male candidates are held to a higher standard------------ 41 8.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 33 6.60 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 19. Mayor Pete Buttigieg would be the first openly gay presidential candidate nominated by a major political party. In your opinion, do you think the country is ready for an openly gay president – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 311 62.20 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 141 28.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 45 9.00 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 20. The Democratic National Committee has established donor and poll percentage thresholds for candidates in order to qualify for the televised debates. If a candidate doesn’t qualify for the next round of TV debates in December, do you think he or she should drop out – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 236 47.20 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 217 43.40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 45 9.00 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 21. Of the following two statements which comes closer to your view: (ROTATE 21.1 & 21.2) (N=500) n % Likely Democratic Primary Voters 5 of 7 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who can defeat Donald Trump -------------------------------------------------------- 230 The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who reflects my priorities and values -------------------------------------------------- 236 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 32 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 2 46.00 47.20 6.40 0.40 22. Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick announced last week that he is running for president. Given the New Hampshire primary is two-and-a-half months away, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion: (ROTATE) (N=500) n % He waited too long. I won’t consider him ----------------- 252 50.40 I’m open to considering him ---------------------------------- 213 42.60 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 31 6.20 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 23. On healthcare, some people say we should scrap the current system and move to a single-payer health care system, otherwise known as Medicare-for-All. Others say we should build upon the foundation of the Affordable Care Act and make the necessary reforms to the current system. Which is closer to your view? (N=500) n % Scrap & move to Medicare-for-All -------------------------- 159 31.80 Implement reforms to the Affordable Care Act ---------- 270 54.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 64 12.80 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 24. How would you describe your own political viewpoint – very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative? (ROTATE .1-.5 ASCENDING TO DESCENDING) (N=500) n % Very liberal --------------------------------------------------------- 71 14.20 Liberal ------------------------------------------------------------- 182 36.40 Moderate---------------------------------------------------------- 187 37.40 Conservative ------------------------------------------------------- 39 7.80 Very Conservative -------------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 Don’t know --------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 25. Do you think the Democratic Party is too far left, center, or too far right, compared to your own political viewpoint? (N=500) n % Too far left -------------------------------------------------------- 194 38.80 Center ------------------------------------------------------------- 162 32.40 Too far right -------------------------------------------------------- 54 10.80 Don’t know --------------------------------------------------------- 90 18.00 26. In the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Primary, did you vote for Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or did you not vote in that Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Bernie Sanders -------------------------------------------------- 211 42.20 Hillary Clinton ---------------------------------------------------- 133 26.60 Did not vote in Democratic Primary ------------------------ 132 26.40 Don’t know --------------------------------------------------------- 24 4.80 These final questions will help us classify your answers with others taking the survey. 27. Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union? (N=500) n Yes ------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 423 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 6 of 7 % 14.40 84.60 November 21-24, 2019 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 4 28. 29. 30. 0.20 0.80 Are any members of your household part of the LGBTQ community? (N=500) n Yes ------------------------------------------------------------------- 76 No ------------------------------------------------------------------ 417 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 4 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 % 15.20 83.40 0.80 0.60 What is the highest level of education you have completed? (N=500) n Some high school -------------------------------------------------- 9 High school graduate -------------------------------------------- 54 Some college ---------------------------------------------------- 107 Trade/technical/vocational training --------------------------- 16 College graduate ----------------------------------------------- 171 Masters or PhD ------------------------------------------------- 137 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------------ 6 Refused --------------------------------------------------------------- 0 % 1.80 10.80 21.40 3.20 34.20 27.40 1.20 0.00 What is your annual household income? (N=500) n Under $20,000 per year ----------------------------------------- 28 Under $50,000 per year ----------------------------------------- 83 Under $75,000 per year ----------------------------------------- 65 Under $100,000 per year --------------------------------------- 84 Under $140,000 per year --------------------------------------- 74 $140,000 per year or more ------------------------------------- 92 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 74 % 5.60 16.60 13.00 16.80 14.80 18.40 14.80 [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] Likely Democratic Primary Voters 7 of 7 November 21-24, 2019