DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
3,131 active registered voters in Iowa,
including 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error for all registered voters: ±1.8 percentage points
Margin of error for likely Democratic caucusgoers: ±3.7 percentage points

Study #2206
January 2-8, 2020
Weighted by age and congressional district

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
[Ask all.] First, how likely is it you will attend the Democratic party caucuses scheduled for next month—will you
definitely attend, probably attend, might or might not attend, or probably not attend?
Dec-18, Mar-19: How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be
on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you
attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? [Mar-19: Note to interviewer: If respondent asks, virtually or in person? The words I
have are “attend.” In other words, offer no further clarification.]
#Jun-19: This year the Democratic caucuses will be a little different. In addition to the regular meetings on caucus night, the
Democratic Party of Iowa will convene virtual caucuses to take place online or by phone on several days leading up to the traditional, inperson caucus meetings on February 3rd. Do you think you would definitely participate in the 2020 caucuses—either in person or in a
virtual caucus—probably participate, might or might not participate, or probably not participate?
Sep-19: First, how likely is it you will attend the Democratic party caucuses scheduled for February of 2020—will you definitely attend,
probably attend, might or might not attend, or probably not attend?
Nov-19: How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the
agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, might or might not attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably
attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus?

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Definitely
Probably
Might or
attend
attend
might not
Republican
Republican
attend a
caucus
caucus
caucus

Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

66

34

n/a

n/a

-

-

n/a

-

63
60
62
50
57

37
40
38
50
43

n/a
n/a
-

n/a
n/a
-

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

-

n/a
n/a
-

-

Probably
not attend a
caucus

Don’t know
which
caucus will
attend

Not sure

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1 OF 10

 Have you in the past attended party caucuses to show your preference for
presidential candidates, or would this be your first time to participate? (If attended in the past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both?
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Mar-19, Jun-19: Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both?

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

Attended
Republican caucus
in the past

Attended
Democratic caucus
in the past

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not
sure

5

58

10

27

1

4
8
4
6
11

57
64
72
62
60

9
9
7
7
7

30
19
17
25
21

1
-

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2 OF 10

 Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If None of these or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
(Ask all.) I’m going to read the list one more time, excluding any names you may have already mentioned. This
time, please tell me if the person is someone you are actively considering or not. Just answer yes or no. (Read list,
excluding answers to first and second choice questions. Mark all yeses. Same order as first choice question.)

Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers.

First
Choice

Second
Choice

Total selecting as
either first or
second choice
(added across
columns,
not recalculated)

Actively
considering

Candidate
footprint
(Added
across
columns, not
recalculated:
1st/2nd choice
and actively
considering)

Michael Bennet

Jan-20
*
1
1
6
7
Nov-19
1
*
1
10
11
Sep-19
*
1
1
8
9
#Jun-19
1
*
1
8
9
Mar-19
1
1
2
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Joe Biden
15
12
27
28
55
Nov-19
15
13
28
30
58
Sep-19
20
10
30
30
60
#Jun-19
23
13
36
25
61
Mar-19
27
19
46
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
32
18
50
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Michael Bloomberg
1
1
2
8
10
Nov-19
2
1
3
11
14
Dec-18
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Cory Booker
3
4
7
28
35
Nov-19
3
3
6
30
36
Sep-19
3
4
7
35
42
#Jun-19
1
6
7
36
43
Mar-19
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
4
7
11
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Pete Buttigieg
16
15
31
29
60
Nov-19
25
14
39
29
68
Sep-19
9
9
18
37
55
#Jun-19
15
9
24
28
52
Mar-19
1
1
2
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
John Delaney
*
0
*
6
6
Nov-19
0
*
*
7
7
Sep-19
1
*
1
9
10
#Jun-19
1
1
2
16
18
Mar-19
1
*
1
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
1
*
1
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Tulsi Gabbard
2
1
3
6
9
Nov-19
3
3
6
11
17
Sep-19
2
1
3
12
15
#Jun-19
*
2
2
12
14
Mar-19
*
2
2
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Amy Klobuchar
6
8
14
27
41
Nov-19
6
6
12
27
39
Sep-19
3
4
7
30
37
#Jun-19
2
1
3
29
32
Mar-19
3
3
6
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
3
2
5
n/a
n/a
Consistent with CNN practices, a zero in the horserace question indicates the candidate received no responses. An asterisk indicates
at least one respondent selected the candidate, but the percentage rounds down to zero (<0.5).
#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers.

First
Choice

Second
Choice

Total selecting as
either first or
second choice
(added across
columns,
not recalculated)

Actively
considering

Candidate
footprint
(Added
across
columns, not
recalculated:
1st/2nd choice
and actively
considering)

Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders

Jan-20
0
*
*
3
3
Jan-20
20
12
32
23
55
Nov-19
15
13
28
26
54
Sep-19
11
10
21
29
50
#Jun-19
16
11
27
29
56
Mar-19
25
13
38
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
19
14
33
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Tom Steyer
2
2
4
22
26
Nov-19
3
3
6
20
26
Sep-19
2
1
3
18
21
Dec-18
*
1
1
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Elizabeth Warren
17
16
33
26
59
Nov-19
16
20
36
30
66
Sep-19
22
20
42
29
71
#Jun-19
15
14
29
32
61
Mar-19
9
12
21
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
8
10
18
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
Marianne Williamson
0
*
*
3
3
6
7
Nov-19
0
1
1
6
6
Sep-19
*
*
*
6
6
#Jun-19
0
*
*
n/a
n/a
Mar-19
*
0
*
Jan-20
Andrew Yang
5
6
11
29
40
Nov-19
3
2
5
28
33
Sep-19
2
2
4
20
24
#Jun-19
1
1
2
13
15
Mar-19
*
*
*
n/a
n/a
Dec-18
*
1
1
n/a
n/a
Jan-20
None of these (VOL)
1
2
15
Nov-19
2
2
13
Sep-19
2
1
13
#Jun-19
7
2
8
Mar-19
3
2
n/a
Dec-18
4
3
n/a
Jan-20
Not sure
11
6
3
Nov-19
5
3
2
Sep-19
14
7
2
#Jun-19
6
5
5
Mar-19
10
6
n/a
Dec-18
6
6
n/a
Jan-20
No first choice
n/a
13
Nov-19
n/a
7
Sep-19
n/a
16
#Jun-19
n/a
13
Mar-19
n/a
13
Dec-18
n/a
10
Consistent with CNN practices, a zero in the horserace question indicates the candidate received no responses. An asterisk indicates
at least one respondent selected the candidate, but the percentage rounds down to zero (<0.5).

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. How

would you describe your level of enthusiasm for your first-choice
candidate [CANDIDATE NAME]—are you extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, mildly enthusiastic, or
not that enthusiastic? (Asked only of those who selected a first-choice candidate, but total based on all.)
Extremely
enthusiastic
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19

Very
enthusiastic

Mildly
enthusiastic

Not that
enthusiastic

Not
sure

No first-choice
candidate

30

38

17

2

-

13

31
28
31

42
39
41

17
16
12

2
2
1

1
1

7
16
13

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Regardless

of your level of enthusiasm, would you say your mind is made
up to support [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE] or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate
as your first choice? (Asked only of those who selected a first-choice candidate, but total based on all.)
Mind is
made up
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19

Could be
persuaded

Not
sure

No first-choice candidate

40

45

2

13

30
20

62
63

1
1

7
16

Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if
your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)
Comparisons to the final poll of the 2016 caucus cycle are included where available. Among likely Democratic caucusgoers in late Jan-16:
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians, including presidential candidates. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very
favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable.
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Michael Bennet
Michael Bennet, U.S. senator from Colorado

Joe Biden
Joe Biden, former vice president of the United
States

Joe Biden

Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York
City
Michael Bloomberg

Cory Booker
Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey

Fav

Unf

Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Not
Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

3

14

22

11

51

5
3
3
3

20
17
16
15

19
15
9
5

8
7
3
2

47
57
70
75

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

22

40

20

13

5

24
29
34
45
47
41

40
38
38
37
35
40

19
17
14
8
11
7

14
12
10
6
4
5

3
5
4
4
4
7

Jan-20
Nov-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

2

15

27

31

25

5
3
8
2

14
24
32
15

28
27
20
17

30
11
11
9

23
34
29
57

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

13

40

17

9

21

14
18
20
13
18

38
42
35
39
31

20
14
13
9
6

9
8
6
5
6

19
18
26
33
39

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 5 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana

John Delaney
John Delaney, former U.S. representative from
Maryland
John Delaney, U.S. congressman from Maryland

Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. representative from Hawaii

Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota

Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont

Bernie Sanders

Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer, businessman
Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager and activist

Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren

Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson, author
Marianne Williamson, author and activist

Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang, businessman

Fav

Unf

Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Not
Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

34

34

15

9

8

42
33
32
5

30
35
29
12

10
8
7
7

6
5
5
4

12
18
26
73

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

1

14

25

15

45

3
3
6
5
6

15
14
21
22
19

22
23
13
8
7

12
11
5
5
4

48
49
55
61
64

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

3

13

26

31

27

7
6
5
5

18
20
18
17

28
21
11
9

17
10
9
6

30
43
57
64

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

18

35

15

10

22

20
17
12
13
16

33
36
32
30
22

16
16
14
9
5

8
6
4
6
3

24
26
38
41
54

Jan-20

1

7

17

12

63

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

32

33

16

13

5

31
26
32
37
43
42

30
33
37
34
31
40

23
24
17
16
12
8

12
13
8
9
10
4

4
5
5
4
4
6

9

34

23

15

19

10
7
5

27
19
15

24
21
14

15
11
6

24
41
61

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
late Jan-16

32

38

14

10

6

36
44
38
25
30
30

34
31
33
38
35
17

14
11
10
12
13
4

11
7
7
8
7
3

5
8
12
17
16
46

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19

1

6

25

27

41

4
2
2
1

7
7
7
7

22
25
11
7

25
23
7
4

41
42
73
80

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18

17

44

17

8

14

11
7
5
2
1

33
29
14
5
4

23
22
10
7
6

10
10
5
5
6

24
32
66
81
83

Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
Dec-18

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 6 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Which is

more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.)

That the winner of the Iowa Democratic
caucus be a candidate for president with a
strong chance of beating Donald Trump
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
#Jun-19
Dec-18

That the winner of the Iowa Democratic
caucus be a candidate for president who
shares your positions on major issues

Not
Sure

55

40

5

63
63
65
54

32
31
31
40

4
6
4
6

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Do

you feel mostly optimistic or mostly pessimistic that the Democratic
caucuses and primaries will result in a nominee who can defeat President Trump?
Jan-20

Optimistic

Pessimistic

68

24

Not sure

8

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. I’m

going to read a list of ways some people make up their minds about which
candidate they will support on caucus night. For each, please tell me how important it is for you, personally—
extremely important, just important, or not that important to you? (Read list. Rotate.)

What your gut instinct tells you
What a trusted friend or neighbor has to say
Which candidate you think has the superior chance of
winning next November
Which candidate holds the same positions on policies that
matter to you
Which candidate can bring on board Republicans and
independents to win in November
Which candidate is most likely to inspire people who
haven’t voted before to turn out
How the candidate has handled media interviews and
television appearances
How the candidate has reacted to Donald Trump
The candidate’s ability to unite the country
How the candidate has performed at debates
How the candidate has engaged with caucusgoers at events
How the candidate is polling in states other than Iowa

Extremely
important

Important

Not that
important

Not
Sure

38
7

41
26

17
64

4
3

58

31

6

6

57

36

3

3

50

37

8

5

53

34

8

5

28
37
69
36
33
20

54
37
24
46
47
38

15
24
4
16
17
38

2
3
3
3
3
4

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 7 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. We’re

interested in issues that affect which candidate you will support. For
each of the following, please tell me if this is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you
as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)
Extremely
important

Important

Not that
important

68
57
59
68
47
50
52
36
25

25
36
27
22
40
36
40
46
36

3
3
10
7
9
9
4
14
33

Health care
Foreign policy
The gap between rich and poor
Climate change
Immigration
Race relations
The economy
Taxes
Impeachment

Not
sure

4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
6

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Regardless

of who is your first-choice candidate, which candidate do you think
has the health care policy position that aligns most closely with your views? (Allow one choice only. Do not read
list unless requested.)
2
16
2
15
1
5
24
1
14
3
17

Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Cory Booker
Pete Buttigieg
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Amy Klobuchar
Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang
None of these/not sure (VOL)

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 8 OF 10

 Among likely Democratic caucusgoers who have a first-choice candidate; n=605. MoE: ±4.0% pts. I’d

like you to think about
your support for [FIRST-CHOICE CANDIDATE] and tell me for each of the following if you consider
this more of a strength of the candidate or more of a weakness. (Rotate list.)
Both/
Neither
(VOL)

More of a
strength

More of a
weakness

79

11

2

8

87
59
87
93

3
34
2
2

1
1
2
1

10
6
9
4

72

18

1

9

55
95
37
86

28
1
49
7

1
3
1

15
4
10
7

The candidate’s ability to understand the problems
facing people like you
Dem CGs w/1st choice

92

1

-

7

Biden supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Buttigieg supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Sanders supporters (MoE: ±8.8% pts.)
Warren supporters (MoE: ±9.3% pts.)

86
95
91
96

4
1
-

1
-

10
4
8
4

69

18

1

12

86
87
61
58

1
7
23
29

1
1
1

12
5
15
11

The candidate’s political résumé

Dem CGs w/1st choice
Biden supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Buttigieg supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Sanders supporters (MoE: ±8.8% pts.)
Warren supporters (MoE: ±9.3% pts.)

The candidate’s physical health

Dem CGs w/1st choice
Biden supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Buttigieg supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Sanders supporters (MoE: ±8.8% pts.)
Warren supporters (MoE: ±9.3% pts.)

The candidate’s ability to lead the military
Dem CGs w/1st choice
Biden supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Buttigieg supporters (MoE: ±9.2% pts.)
Sanders supporters (MoE: ±8.8% pts.)
Warren supporters (MoE: ±9.3% pts.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers who have a first-choice candidate; n=605. MoE: ±4.0% pts. Which

Not
sure

of the following best

describes your first-choice candidate: (Rotate order: 1,2,3 and 3,2,1.)
Dem CGs
w/1st choice

Biden
supporters

Buttigieg
supporters

Sanders
supporters

Warren
supporters

58

69

54

66

55

24

5

28

20

31

9

14

9

6

6

9

12

9

9

8

Is the one I like best and has the best chance to
defeat President Trump
Is the one I like best, though someone else has a
better chance to defeat President Trump
Is not the one I like best, but has the best chance
to defeat President Trump
Not sure

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 9 OF 10

 Likely Democratic caucusgoers
Compared to:
Study #2202
500 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.4 percentage points

November 8-13, 2019
2,012 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and congressional district

Study #2196
602 likely Democratic caucusgoers

September 14-18, 2019
3,510 active registered voter contacts
Margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points

weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
Study #2190
433 Likely in-person Democratic caucus attenders
Margin of error: ±4.7 percentage points

June 2-5, 2019
3,776 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2185
401 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±5.0 percentage points

March 3-6, 2019
1,618 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and sex

Study #2182
455 likely Democratic caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points

December 10-13, 2018
1,838 active registered voter contacts
weighted by age and congressional district

Study #2133
602 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points for

January 26-29, 2016
3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #1921
399 Democratic likely caucus-goers
Margin of error: ±4.9 percentage points

October 1-3, 2007

ABOUT THE POLL
The Iowa Poll, conducted January 2-8, 2020, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 3,131 registered voters in Iowa, including 701 who say they will definitely or
probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter
registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were
administered in English. Responses for all registered voters were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their
proportions among active voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 701 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of
error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Questions based on the sample of 3,131 registered voters have a maximum
margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions
and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus
or minus 3.7 or 1.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or
age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

#Jun-19: Not directly comparable. Percentages are among likely Democratic caucus participants who said they would definitely or probably attend in
person as opposed to participating in a virtual caucus.
___________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 10 OF 10