Executive Summary Choice Neighborhood Annual Assessment 2017 (submitted 2018) In 2013 we anticipated that the Choice Neighborhood would become a neighborhood that is dynamic, vibrant, and respectful of the area’s assets. It would be a neighborhood that is walkable, safe, and where good jobs may be found. It would increase the pride of families and individuals that call it home (Choice Neighborhood Transformation Plan 2013). Five years later we can report change. East Meadows and Wheatley Senior Living have been built; two houses have been renovated; 20 business facades have been improved; there is new digital library and a new health clinic; streets have been paved, sidewalks have been created, street lights have new, efficient light bulbs; there is a new linear park along Menger Creek; real estate values are creeping up, and property taxes are going up even faster; property crime is down; violent crime is up; neighbors feel safer than they did five years ago, but still don’t feel they have a productive relationship with police; residents of East Meadows are happy with their apartment, but are not meeting one another or making friends; the poverty rate in the neighborhood remains stubbornly high; private investors have bought many of the vacant lots originally intended for affordable single family, owner-occupied housing and built housing suitable for those making 200%AMI (over $100,000). All in all, this is a very complicated place. As inner-city neighborhoods become increasingly sought after for their unique housing stock, diverse populations, and investment opportunities, the ability to preserve one has become increasingly difficult. The Choice Neighborhood’s neighbors – Dignowity Hill and Denver Heights - have seen property values increase and residents flee as these processes progress. Can the Choice Neighborhood remain affordable while also becoming safer with public investments (streets, libraries, health clinics, schools) that rival the rest of the city? Or must it – like its neighbors – sacrifice long-term residents and affordability in the process? We are presented with an interesting natural experiment: Dignowity Hill and Denver Heights are examples of marketdriven neighborhood change while the Choice Neighborhood is an example of neighborhood change that has been guided by public policy and public investment. So far, its public infrastructure rivals that of its neighbors, and it has retained its affordability. As the Choice Neighborhood funding concludes, is this vision sustainable? Those are the big questions that will outlast this project. But this report covers the final year of progress. What has been the impact of the 5th year of work? We do not evaluate the work – we do not measure it against a standard (for what standard would we use?), we do not determine which strategy produced which outcome (because life is much more difficult than that). Instead, we identify many of the strategies implemented, but spend much more time on collecting and analyzing the social indicators that have changed (or have failed to change) in the past 5-6 years in order to document the impact of the Choice effort and investment. 1 Since the project began in 2012 the macro economy has improved dramatically; it’s difficult to sort local, micro changes from those occurring and impacted by macro changes. The Choice Neighborhood Initiative lies right between those two scales. So the best we can do in order to attribute change to the project (or to greater changes at work in the region) is to constantly compare with the larger region – the surrounding neighborhood, city, and county. The ability to make lasting, sustainable change while working at this scale or level has proven nearly impossible in the past. We’re hoping this combination of strategies may prove effective, as the synergy between so many concerted efforts may finally produce the outcomes we seek: long term stability, improved quality of life, maintained affordability, and reinvigorated inner-city neighborhoods without displacement. This report is divided into three section – which will sound familiar, but are being used in a slightly modified way: ● People – for us, does not refer to strategies or to funding streams or to partners, it refers to people. People at Wheatley Courts, people at East Meadows, people at Wheatley Senior Living, people who did not return to the new developments; people in the neighborhood. ● Housing – for us, means more than just East Meadows, Wheatley Senior Living, and some of Sutton Oaks. It includes the housing in the neighborhood – both new and old – since the original goal was to create a continuum; ● Neighborhood – for us, is the institutional environment that provides goods and services to the entire Choice Neighborhood. Those institutions create the environment – the neighborhood—in which People live and determine how easy it is – regardless of one’s income, race, gender, age, or ability – to live in the neighborhood. Data was collected from a myriad of sources. Interviews, focus groups, a randomized survey of households, formal and informal conversations, interviews and participant observation with police officers, census data, American community survey data, Bexar County appraisal data, real estate data from Zillow and Realtor.com, business data from ESRI-BAO, crime data from the police department are used together to tell the story of individual and neighborhood change. Drawing on so many sources both amplifies and contradicts the narrative – and when that happens we discuss it and try and understand it (for example, why do people say they feel safer although violent crime has increased?). Our goal in this report is to ‘channel’ the community – to listen to the voice of the residents and community living and working in the Choice Neighborhood, and thus give them a ‘seat at the table’. While seats have been offered throughout this entire Choice Neighborhood process, few have participated – for so many reasons: time, politics, the weather… While the report contains analysis – its greater emphasis is on giving resident voices a place to be heard and recorded. 2 MAJOR FINDINGS: People:          15% of original Wheatley Courts households have returned to live in East Meadows and Wheatley Park Senior Living; 44% of the original Wheatley Courts residents remain in case management with Urban Strategies; When residents chose a place to live in 2014 they did so quickly and many moved a second and third time. When residents chose to return (or not) to East Meadows, they deliberated and weighed the pluses and minuses of another move – indicating a new sense of agency over one’s life; o For many low-income families, decisions concerning daily life are made by the state (government officials, social workers, and politicians). When Wheatley Courts was demolished, limited time and options often compelled residents into an unsuccessful first move. Conversely, the decision to move back to EM has been deliberate. Whether or not residents remain in EM for a significant period of time will indicate whether increased agency truly affects quality of life. Median household income of former WCR has remained fairly stagnant, although the mean has increased appreciably, indicating some families are doing significantly better than others; o Population-level evidence indicates that some families have increased their income considerably. Analysis of individual-level data would allow researchers to identify the most effective strategies that impacted these families. Few residents are aware of the mixed-income nature of East Meadows; o Mixed-income housing has been proposed as a strategy to combat entrenched poverty. Yet without the exchange of social, political, and cultural capital, the model will fail. Individuals at East Meadows express optimism about their future, although they have met very few people at East Meadows – people prefer to “keep to themselves”; o East Meadows residents feel quite optimistic about the state of their lives today; the novelty of East Meadows may still influence that state. With time, as the newness wears off, a healthy community may fill that lacunae. Individuals at Wheatley Park have formed communities and socialize frequently; Those living in the Choice Neighborhood express increasing optimism about their community; African-American families have been in the neighborhood much longer, and know more people there, yet have lower rates of home ownership; o Spanish-speaking families feel higher rates of community involvement than other families in the Choice Neighborhood – indicating that a community may be forming among them, or that a different understanding of community is at work. Housing:   The one to one replacement from Wheatley Courts to East Meadows is complete; 235 new affordable units have been built, (including those available at the Park at Sutton Oaks); 117 more will be added by 2020; Appraisal values in the Choice Neighborhood rose 68%; list prices rose 107% and sales prices rose 16%. 3 o     While the neighborhood remains affordable today, the surrounding neighborhoods are increasingly more expensive and exclusive. Short of controlling the real estate market, other tools, such as subsidized renovation and careful monitoring of the demolition process may deter rising real estate prices and an investor-driven market. Tax foreclosures in the CN are 34% (in Bexar County they are 9%), possibly indicating an early phase of displacement due to rising property values; Private sector developers built numerous houses in 2017-2018, with asking prices much higher than older houses in the neighborhood; The infill housing program intended to build affordable housing for sale to owner-occupiers has yet to begin due to a delayed start date (and increasing land values); o Merced Housing has developed the capacity to undertake significant house renovation projects due to this partnership. As COSA enters the rehab business, this new capacity may now guide new partners in the housing rehab business. The Owner Occupied Rehabilitation program has been successful for those whose houses have begun or completed renovations. However some applicants who are still in the application or lead based paint testing/remediation process express some frustration with the slow speed of the process. Neighborhood:      While the overall number of crime incidents has gone up slightly, property crime has decreased, and residents perceive that crime has gone down overall; Relations between police officers and residents remain tense; many residents are unaware of policing programs, and most residents do not think police officers make an effort to get to know residents; o Yet residents perceive that crime has decreased and security has increased in the neighborhood. Residents’ perceptions of the economic sector, including their ability to fulfill their needs within the neighborhood, have improved despite the lack of change in leakage or number of stores, possibly due to facade improvements; Improvements in infrastructure play a significant (positive) role in residents’ perceptions of the neighborhood; sidewalks and lighting are cited as evidence of the neighborhood improving, yet the lack of additions like speed bumps and stop signs negatively affect residents’ feelings of efficacy; o Future projects should begin with these infrastructural improvements rather than delaying them to the latter years of the project. Residents generally remain alienated from the process of decision-making for the region. While many feel they have some say in their neighborhood, this awareness is largely limited to the block they live on and many remain disaffected with neighborhood associations that could more formally meet their needs. 4 STRATEGIES identified in the TRANSFORMATION PLAN: PEOPLE 1. Improve and create workforce career ladder and growing industries; make job creation a priority for all new development initiatives [TP 30]; 2. Make sure all residents have access to social services and healthcare [TP 30]; 3. Promote and support health and wellness initiatives [TP 30]; 4. Create community by promoting programs and neighborhood activities that help to bring people together [TC 30]; 5. Encourage upward economic mobility and self-sufficiency for SAHA residents [TP 32] 6. Create “one-stop shop” approach for supportive services coordination for current and future residents [TP 37]. HOUSING 1. Ensure one-to-one replacement of the existing housing units [TP 51]; a) Phase I: Park at Sutton Oaks b) Phase II: East Meadows I c) Phase III: Wheatley Park Senior Living d) Phase IV: East Meadows II 1. Create an economically integrated community and maximize affordable housing [TP 51]; 2. Include residents in all levels of planning [TP 51]; 3. Leverage substantial additional resources to ensure maximum impact in the neighborhood [TP 51]; 4. Integrate housing component with other study area components including anticipating future housing needs [TP 51]; 5. Provide appropriate unit configurations and units that are energy efficient, connected, and free from discrimination [TP 51]; 6. Create a strong sense of community through community design [TP 51]. NEIGHBORHOOD 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Small businesses grow and thrive [TP i, 1]; Students excel in local schools [TP i, 1, 33]; Adults continue to learn [TP i, 1]; Walkable [TP i, 1]; Safe [TP i, 1]; Good jobs [TP i, 1]; a. Diverse range of employment opportunities [TP 1]; 7. Families and individuals proud to call home [TP i, 1]; 8. Diverse range of housing opportunities [TP ii, 42]; 9. Diverse range of cultural, entertainment, and educational offerings [TP ii]; 10. Revitalized, mixed-income neighborhood 5 11. Builds on existing assets 12. Creates new, high quality housing options 13. Renovate publicly owned vacant houses [TP 42]. 6 5:13 ?17 Legend - the Park at Sutton Oaks - East Meadows Phase II - East Meadows Phase - East Meadows Phase IV Publcc Schools [3 other SANA properties Alamo Community College choice Neighborhood East Meadow Phase II I PEOPLE Life at East Meadows and Wheatley Park Senior Living “People” is the first component of the Choice Neighborhood model, and we begin our annual analysis with it as well. While “People” amongst the Choice Neighborhood strategies referred specifically to the former public housing residents (for funding and contractual reasons), here we use it to mean both the former Wheatley Courts [WC] residents, all individuals living at East Meadows [EM] and Wheatley Park Senior Living [WP], and those living in the surrounding neighborhood. While numerous goals were listed in the original Transformation Plan, the overarching goal was to stabilize and improve people’s lives. Original data and personal stories told of families under extreme stress from poverty, unstable housing situations, poor nutrition, lack of healthcare, and difficult family situations. Goals such as economic self-sufficiency were crafted and strategized to ultimately address and negate these conditions. In this fifth and final report we return to the grander, overarching goal and focus on quality of life. The Transformation Plan states that education, safety, employment, economic mobility, social service support, and health and wellness are essential quality-of-life issues (TP, page 30), thus we present some data on those indicators, but are ultimately looking for changes in the way people talk about their quality of life, as evidenced in the interviews and surveys completed. In addition to this list though we add membership in community. We are social beings; we thrive in community. Recent economic and philosophical shifts prioritize individual needs above communal ones – but healthy neighborhoods are those in which community flourishes. This chapter begins with the former Wheatley Courts residents and builds a larger social context for them. Where are they living now? How did they make the decision to live where they do? How are they doing there? As a cohort, have their lives improved? For those at East Meadows, what is life like? What is the community like? Can we say confidently that life is better? And for those who chose not to return? We interviewed 14 EM residents, 7 of whom were former WC residents, and 8 WP residents in May-June 2018. We also spoke with 6 former WC residents who chose not to return to EM. In addition, we surveyed approximately 447 residents of the neighborhood (including some from EM and WP), held 3 focus groups with about 15 people, and simply spent time talking and getting to know people. We rely on these voices along with the neighborhood survey and the American Community Survey to understand if the original goals of the project concerning “People” are being met. WHERE HAVE WE BEEN? Wheatley Courts was constructed in the late 1930s-early 1940s and housed thousands of families in the nearly 80 years it was on the Eastside. Original residents remember it fondly as a social center of the neighborhood, as a safe place to grow up, and as an opportunity for a young couple newly returned from the War to start a family before buying a home in the neighborhood. By January 31, 2014 Wheatley Courts were slated for demolition and 243 households (661 individuals) relocated elsewhere either through the section 8 tenant-based voucher program or the public housing program. 9 For many households of very limited means, the decision to move is not their own: it is a landlord’s, or the justice system, or another family of household member that is threatening. Movement is often fast, hasty, and with little “decision making”. In 2014, when Wheatley Courts residents moved out of the former WC many moved quickly, following this pattern. They moved into the first available apartment they could find with their tenant-based voucher. Shortly after that, they moved again; the second move was often much more deliberate as people weighed the positives and negatives of different neighborhoods. With each move, people became more empowered (as opposed to those making the decision impulsively or out of fear). This last move was different. Both groups – those who returned and those who did not – gave the decision much thought. People considered their family, their kid’s schools, their own needs, and their feelings of safety and security when making the decision to return or not. And people offered the same reason for both conclusions: as many said they were returning to East Meadows because of increased sense of safety as said they were not returning for that reason. The point is not the inconsistency; instead, the point is that people are making decisions in very different ways than they used to. According to the CNI 2014 assessment, approximately 30% of WC residents who had originally received a Section 8 voucher for their relocation during the construction of East Meadows had moved again that year while none of the residents who went into public housing have moved since the original relocation. By 2017, 53 of the original households had moved a second time (for 25 of them it was their move to EM) and 13 a third time (for 3 it was their move to EM or WP). Of the former WC households (246 households, 661 people), 109 households (44% of the original) remain in case management (145 households have left case management). 144 of the original 246 still receive SAHA housing assistance (58%); 37 are at East Meadows, 26 are living in other SAHA properties, and 81 still have tenant-based vouchers. Household in WC Households in case management Households returned to East Meadows Households in public housing elsewhere Households with tenantbased voucher 2013 246 2014 0 2015 0 2016 0 0 22 109 of original WCH (144 total) 37 0 52 141 63 2017 26 81 10 Households in other housing Households no longer in case management 12 145 In addition, 8 former WC households live in Sutton Oaks and 4 in Springview. Where are former WC households now? 60% 50% 40% 30% 56% 20% 26% 10% 18% 0% Took voucher elsewhere East Meadows (returned) Other SAHA properties Location/Decision Figure 1. Data from former Wheatley Courts residents and East Meadows residents henceforth referred to as FWCREM; only includes those still receiving housing assistance. 11 EormerIJWh?eitLe . moVeme . v. . a-J .. semi3?'14s ,3 - . I giLegend ?4 I mama . ?l A mumUtbon Studies Program Tuinity UM 2018 Figure 2. Urban Strategies resident addresses. 12 Urban Strategies caseworkers played a significant role in helping individuals make the decision to move, whether that meant taking a section 8 voucher, going to public housing elsewhere, or eventually returning to East Meadows. While conducting interviews, it was clear that unless Urban Strategies was mentioned explicitly and asked about by the interviewers, the services provided by Urban Strategies would not come into conversation at all. However, when asked whether Urban Strategies had been helpful, most former Wheatley Court residents, including those who had and had not moved back into East Meadows had positive responses, and claimed to have had many helpful services provided to them through case management. “[Urban Strategies] always kept in touch with me, made sure that I was okay where I was at. And they looked after me. I really appreciate their support.” (Joanne) “All of them is good. Very good people. If you need something, and if they have it, they're gonna help you.” (Vivienne) “To be honest, [Urban Strategies] have been trying to reach out to me a lot, and I either cancel or I can’t go or something comes up or yeah. They really try to help me a lot, and it’s me who can’t”. (Sarah) “Yes, they’re the main go-to people who I can go to when I have something.” (Caroline) “Yeah, that's what I was tryin to say. Urban Strategies was the one that got me this place.” (Larry) It is clear that Urban Strategies played a role in the lives of former Wheatley Courts residents, but the extent of the impact Urban Strategies had on the final decision to move is less certain. We believe that people’s reluctance to mention Urban Strategies during interviews reflects that they are taken for granted – they basically became part of the family. DECISION TO MOVE (BACK) to EAST MEADOWS 37 of the former Wheatley Courts households have returned to East Meadows. Families returned at a higher rate than single-person households. Residents gave 3 primary reasons for moving to East Meadows: newness of the development, convenience of the location, and personal safety1. DECISION to MOVE: Newness The “newness” of East Meadows and Wheatley Park remains a primary reason for many choosing to move to EM and WP this year. Residents often mentioned being drawn to the development because of how nice East Meadows looked physically. 1 Market-rate tenants at East Meadows are not in this sample, as we were unable to interview any …. 13 “For me, they were brand new. And I’m the first one that actually lived in this one… so I’m the first tenant in here. I really like it. It’s nice, and they keep the property nice and clean, and it’s quiet.” (Meagan) “They're brand new apartments, and usually like with housing, my kid's dad, his mom, she's on housing, and her apartment is not as nice as my apartment.” (Elise) “Everything man, it's just nice. I really just like the way they look, you know? They're nice looking. Something new, something new and I like them.” (Nathan) A number of residents claimed to be drawn by the appearance of the building, both inside and out. Some even attributed feelings of safety to the newness of the building, because they believe that if there is a building in the area that looks brand new, people will be less likely to “do something” to it. Residents, as well as police officers2, seem to believe that people are more likely to pay more attention and care to a development that is brand new. “If you see something nice, if you have any kind of sense, you're gonna try and keep it nice.” (Margaret) 2 Further discussed on page ## in the Neighborhood section 14 Like last year, this seemingly obvious observation is remarkable. For many living at these income levels (<60% AMI3) they own few unused things– yet their apartment is brand new. Sense-of-self is impacted by where one lives and this contributes to overall quality of life. In turn, this impacts how one conducts their daily life. But the apartments won’t be new forever; and some apartments are now being rented a second time. Soon it will be a third and fourth. Can the management maintain this feeling of cleanliness, brightness, and security that residents associate with their “newness”? We know from experience that it is absolutely possible to maintain multi-family development with proper care, yet public housing in the United States has had a history of insufficient funding and maintenance, leading to deteriorated and depreciated buildings well before their use value has expired. Can that pattern change with this new form of development and partnership? Can we insist that it change? DECISION to MOVE: Location Location comes up in two forms when residents are asked about making decisions on where to live: access to people and access to amenities. Many list old ties to the Eastside of San Antonio as a reason to move there. A majority of residents interviewed either had family in the neighborhood or had grown up there. “I also visit this side of town. I want to come and be around the black side. Come over here to eat, come over here to party, and visit relatives that we have on the Eastside.” (Bianca) Some of the residents we interviewed expressed an emotional association with the Eastside because they grew up there. “The reason to come back, specifically to the Eastside. This was my home.” (Margaret) “I was born and raised here. I grew up here so I know everyone here. It’s not like was coming somewhere where I wasn’t from.” (Nicolette) 3 Area Median Income 15 San Antonio prides itself on being a “city of neighborhoods” but many cities pride themselves on the same thing – so are we unique? Statements like these indicate that maybe we are. Those old ties to a place are both emotional and economic. Memories may comfort us, while familiarity relieves the stress of finding one’s way around a new part of town. With increasing pressure from outside forces on our inner-city neighborhoods, these ties to neighborhood are a strength that may keep our neighborhoods stable and functional. They are especially important for lower-income households and families who may be more dependent on personal ties to fulfill their needs. EM and WP residents also list convenience and accessibility as important reasons in their decision to move there. Convenience refers to both the location of the apartment complex in the area and the amenities that come with each unit, such as the washer and dryer, and the kitchen appliances. “The apartment is nice because the apartment came with washer and dryer. Came with a big kitchen and all that.” (Daniel) “I mean the highway is like right here and then HEB is literally, you could walk to HEB if you really wanted to. So everything is really close.” (Elise) “Yes, is it better? A thousand percent better. They come with everything, washer, dryer, microwave, dishwasher, everything.” (Nicolette) 16 DECISION to MOVE: Personal Safety In previous years those considering returning to the new development expressed apprehension about their personal safety if they were to return. Previous impressions had been that crime would remain the same if the same people returned. This year, however, most of the residents seemed to have a different perception of East Meadows. A number of residents described East Meadows as “quiet” because they no longer noticed gang activity and heard shootings as much as they did before, which contributed tremendously to their feelings of safety. “I think within the five years, it has changed. It won't change that quick… you can't change it overnight, but it has changed over five years and it's spreading more, you know?… I can tell you before it was-- it was scary, especially for me, just growing up in the neighborhood.” (Suzy) “It's more safe over here. Don't have to worry about me going to bed tonight, nobody breaking in or nothing, this is a nice neighborhood. I love it.” (Ruth) In this interview as well as others, a positive change is being noticed, but “nice neighborhood” refers specifically to the East Meadows property and not the surrounding residential blocks. East Meadows residents do not yet see the new apartments as part of the neighborhood; it is more like a gated community. This perception may be due to the overall aesthetic or newness of the buildings, but either 17 way it is reflected in the limited interactions residents have with the neighborhood in terms of personal relationships beyond people they already know. Our survey of over 500 neighborhood households, including many in Sutton Oak, East Meadows, and Wheatley Park, measure the perceptions of safety in the neighborhood. Those who were familiar with the former Wheatley Courts, which was a majority of interviewees, claimed that there is a significant improvement in terms of safety features on the new site and a general quietness around the Figure 2. CN Survey 2017-2018. 18 development, but perception of the neighborhood continues to differ from perceptions of EM. Many remain pessimistic about improvements in the surrounding neighborhood -- especially when it comes to crime. Many of the interviewees felt safer in East Meadows, and still seemed to think that the surrounding neighborhood was fairly unsafe. Crime data indicates that the location of East Meadows is no longer a hot spot for crime, as opposed to the former Wheatley Courts. A longitudinal look at crime patterns indicates that Wheatley Courts was the center of a significant crime hot spot. Its demolition by 2014 and reconstruction by 2017 show that that hot spot had dissipated but not disappeared, as the crime incident rate over the entire neighborhood remains that same, just moved. Figure 3. Crime incidents in blocks surrounding Wheatley Courts/East Meadows, 2011, 2014, 2017. Source: SAPD 2018. Some expressed disappointment in the fact that they moved to EM thinking there were going to be security officers patrolling the development and the neighborhood often. They were surprised to see that after a few months the security guards seemed to have disappeared: “I was kind of iffy about moving here, because just the area, where it was, but they have, well I don't know if they still do, I haven't seen them around, but they had security guards walking through the neighborhood and stuff.” (Elise) “First, they said you’ll be having security all the time. No, the security are gone, we don't have no securities.” (Leslie). “Yeah. It’s a little bit less security. We felt really secure with them walking around.” (Bianca) Wheatley Park seniors were not as concerned with the lack of security presence mentioned by the majority of East Meadows residents. This could be attributed to the fact that seniors at Wheatley Park primarily stay indoors, or the fact that East Meadows was open before Wheatley Park, so the security 19 guards that the East Meadows residents witnessed at the time of move-in were already gone by the time Wheatley Park seniors moved in. Wheatley Park Senior Living residents did express greater feelings of safety, but mostly attributed this fact to the design of the building itself. “Yeah. The way they got built was safer. Because when they had the old ones here they were just in and out. They can go in and out. Wasn't no security, no security locks, nothing like that.“ (Allison) Many residents also expressed feelings of safety due to the rules and regulations implemented by Wheatley Park and East Meadows management. Similar to conversations discussed in the previous report, residents in both developments do not mind strict rules if they are for the purpose of maintaining security. This includes things like “screening” tenants with background checks and limiting visitors. Last year many reported that they felt that rules were overly strict; we differentiate those statements from what we are hearing this year, as those (heard in 2016) concerned non-threatening situations such as porch furniture, wreaths on doors, and BBQ pits. In 2017 people spoke more directly about safety issues: “They keep an eye on who goes in and who goes out. And they don't let a person stay over 14 days and stuff like that.” (Adriana) “You have to have a background check. They screen everybody before they let them come in here…We’re trying to be safe, you know?” (Tabitha) 20 Some saw this as a good sign that maybe this meant they no longer needed security all the time because the area is safer now. On the other hand, some people said having officers frequently keep an eye on the neighborhood made them feel much safer. When this concern of decreased security presence on site was brought to management’s attention, they clarified that all properties are opened with an intentional emphasis on security. Since opening, there have not been any incidents to indicate the need for such a heavy presence of security, which is why there are no longer any security guards on site. Last year, residents specifically mentioned feeling safe and comfortable because security guards were always present and doing walkthroughs, even late at night. However, management explained that the security guards on site have been replaced by two on-site constables. During our interviews, a few residents mentioned an increased activity of constable and police patrolling, which includes SAFFE Patrols by SAPD. Aside from differences in safety perception, expectations also differ between Wheatley Park seniors and East Meadows residents about their plans to stay in their current residence or move out. Most of the Wheatley Park Seniors are not planning on looking for another place to live any time soon, some even express that they planned on staying at the senior living facility for the rest of their lives. “This is it. This always will be my home. I don't care if I move out of town, Ima still pay the rent.” (Margaret). This was not necessarily the case among East Meadows residents. “Yeah I would stay here. I would. But eventually I would want an actual house of my own.” (Nicolette). “Well for us, short term. Like I said, I do want a house. I do want a big yard for my family.” (Elise) Most of the residents we spoke to seemed to be happy with their accommodations at East Meadows; many claimed that they “love it.” Although some people were so pleased with their lives at EM that they wanted to stay there as long as they possibly could, many also described EM as a “stepping stone,” meaning, they were hoping, if not actively looking for their next home. EM residents still long for a house with a yard – no different than any other American family. DECISION NOT to RETURN Of the original 243 households that left the old Wheatley Courts in 2014 (144 of whom remain in good standing with the housing authority, and thus were invited back), 37 have returned (15% of the original group). When asked why they chose not to return, a variety of different answers were heard – one of which was safety. A significant number of former Wheatley Courts residents decided not to return to the new East Meadows due to a long-standing fear of crime in the surrounding neighborhood. Part of this fear involves past experiences at the Wheatley Courts. In 2016, when asked about neighborhood safety, we heard from former Wheatley Court residents that they had reservations about moving back because of their perception of safety. “Yeah, that’s one of the several reasons why I don’t want to move back to. Yeah, I’m not going to lie, recently I ran into residents and there was a woman that I ran into and she told me that the Wheatley Courts, I mean the East Meadow is like the Wheatley Courts still.” (Ana) 21 “So I don't want to go back to over there in the East Meadows. I don't want my daughter to go to school over there. It's too many problems over there on the Eastside.” (Ashley) Others said their tenant-based voucher was the reason not to return: “They gave me a Section 8 voucher when I moved out. I didn’t want to give it up. That’s basically it.” (Sarah) While others simply felt settled where they already were. “Well, when I did, I wanted to get to East Meadows, but it wasn't ready yet. So I went on and moved to Sutton Oaks and I got settled over there. I felt I'd rather stay there until they built it up but when they built it up I was already settled in the Sutton Oaks.” (Vivienne) Answers we heard were unique, and few generalizations can be made other than simply listening to people and giving them a voice: “I'm disabled. That's why I chose to stay here. I'm not going back to Wheatley Courts. I don't like it because the managers in there is very rude. I'm disabled, in a wheelchair. I can walk, but I can't really because of my foot, and my back, and she tried to put me on the second floor in one bedroom.” (Larry) For most, the decision not to return was as deliberate as for those who decided to come back. Urban Strategies has supported both groups and has aided families in making the better decision for their situation. LIFE AT EAST MEADOWS While the process of decision making on where to live gives insight into how empowered people are in their own decision making for their family, traditional indicators may also help measure if life is getting better – and thus the impact of the Choice Neighborhood project. Traditional indicators include income, family structure, employment, and health of the community, or social efficacy. 22 INCOME: Median Household Income $60,000.00 $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00 $0.00 2013 FWCREM 2014 Choice Neighborhood 2015 2016 Bexar County Figure 4. Source: FWCREM 2017 and ACS 2012-2016. Note: Income data under FWCREM only contains original Wheatley Courts households-- excludes non-WC EM residents. Again, FWCREM means former WCR and EM residents receiving subsidy. 23 Average and Median Income of Original Wheatley Households $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) Year (Quarter) Average Household Income Median Household Income Figure 6: HUD 2017. Figure 6 above graphs the mean and median quarterly income of the former Wheatley Courts residents, no matter their location. There are two significant concerns associated with this data4: 4 Year 2013 2014 2015 Quarter Mean Household Income Median Household Income 3 $7,709 $8,281 4 $7,339 $8,376 1 $8,723 $8,604 2 $8,434 $8,604 3 $8,339 $8,610 4 $8,299 $8,562 1 $8,970 $8,796 24   Median household income has remained fairly stagnant for most former Wheatley Courts residents. The mean has risen more rapidly though, with periodic (and predictable) cycles. This distribution is not unique to former WCR, in fact, it is a national concern. Joanna Smith-Ramani, of EPIC at The Aspen Institute, has written and spoken about this form of “income volatility,” linking it to seasonal work and the work schedules of much of the working class. If it is agricultural work, holiday retail, or construction – many of these fields are seasonal, which may explain the swift changes in average income from quarter to quarter. So while incomes may be stable or going up slightly, for many they remain volatile and unstable. Yet income qualifications for most [means-tested] programs is on an annual basis. A mismatch during some times of the year may produce extreme economic insecurity and reliance on credit. Some agencies are considering moving to quarterly income assessments. The mean is significantly higher than the median, indicating that the income distribution is skewed toward lower incomes, with a few statistically significant higher income impacting and skewing the distribution. For average and median to differ so dramatically there are a few extremes that pull the average higher; the average income of COSA is higher than the median also – because of a handful of billionaires. Why did some former WC families make this transition to higher incomes? Are they unique, or can we learn from their experience? This is a worthwhile data point to follow in the future – to determine why some are impacted more profoundly than others in a project such as this one. When looking at the income mix of the entire [EM] development (including but not limited to only the FWCR) it actually mirrors the city more than it does the surrounding neighborhood. But where the city is 2016 2017 2018 2 $9,033 $8,796 3 $8,999 $8,796 4 $9,040 $8,798 1 $10,174 $8,892 2 $10,079 $8,892 3 $9,797 $8,799 4 $9,955 $8,799 1 $11,305 $9,024 2 $10,633 $9,036 3 $10,665 $9,030 4 $10,974 $9,060 1 $11,246 $9,188 25 one of the most economically segregated cities in the country, East Meadows is one of the most economically integrated– by virtue of the mixed-income model on which it is built Phase # Buildings East Meadows I East Meadows II Senior Living 38 20 1 1 bedroom garden apt 1 bedroom flat 2 bedroom garden apt 2 bedroom flat 2 bedroom townhouse 3 bedroom garden apt 3 bedroom townhouse 4 bedroom garden apt 4 bedroom townhouse TOTALS # Public Housing Units [<30 AMI] 71 42 40 # Place-Based Voucher Units [30-60% AMI] 8 0 36 30% AMI 50% AMI 60% AMI Market rate TOTALS 2 1 21 4 28 1 7 1 9 5 34 31 82 3 5 12 20 5 10 3 18 12 1 11 19 7 42 # Tax Credit Units [30-60% AMI] 77 53 4 # Market Rate Units >80% AMI] 59 24 12 5 9 40 2 2 3 1 4 28 85 60 215 units The mixed income housing model is increasingly being used as a tool for transforming public housing developments across the country. This model is at the root of one of the three core goals of the Choice Neighborhood model for addressing struggling neighborhoods5. The two primary reasons for mixed- The three core goals of Choice include improvements in housing, personal level outcomes like income and health (people), and neighborhood-level reinvestment to improve safety, schools, commercial activity, etc. (https://www.hud.gov/cn) 5 26 income development are to address urban poverty and as a general strategy for urban redevelopment. Generally, the primary reason is for alleviating poverty, which is the case under the Choice Neighborhood model. There is ongoing debate over whether this model is actually successful in tackling urban poverty, and little evidence exists to support either side of the argument. Joseph et al. (2007) examine the theoretical basis underlying the mixed income housing model, which contains several theoretical assumptions within itself. They divide the basis into four propositions that address community, interpersonal, and individual level concerns. They note that in support of mixed income developments, policymakers expect that: 1. Low income residents will benefit from improved social networks/social capital 2. Low income residents will benefit from increased social control and improved social organization [collective efficacy] 3. Wealthier neighbors will influence the behaviors of low income residents [culture of poverty] 4. Wealthier residents will advocate for improved services and goods in the area and increase the tax base [political economy of place] Joseph et al. ultimately argue low-income residents may benefit from greater informal social control and access to higher quality services (#2 and #4) but cite less evidence of benefiting from social interaction, network building, and role modeling. Overall, East Meadows residents seemed unconcerned when asked how they felt about living in a mixed income development. Most are aware of the presence of new faces and increased diversity but do not have strong opinions towards the model. “It’s a mixture but I don't see it-- it's not a problem. No big deal for me.” (Roland) “I don't think nothing about it. I'm just here, you know? Everybody has to have somewhere to stay. They don't bother me. I just mind my business. I have somewhere to stay” (Nathan) “There's no opinion on it. It is what it is.” (Alejandra) This attitude from residents may be due to the claim that they prefer to keep to themselves rather than getting to know their neighbors. “Yeah, some people just straight in and out their door to their car or the mailbox. They don’t-- they just don't converse with other people. And I'm with that, that's fine. I feel like I'm the same way too. Kinda like a loner.” (Roland) This is discouraging since the benefits of mixed income housing seem to rely on the relationships among residents of different income levels; however, Joseph et al. note that only one of the three propositions requires direct interpersonal interaction across income levels (#1). Even without social interaction, an argument can be made for the benefit of mixed-income housing to low-income residents (Joseph 378). The assumption here is that higher income residents that move to East Meadows will exert influence and advocate for improved services and goods in the neighborhood. Furthermore, the model assumes these same residents will remain in the area for an extended period of time. 27 Higher income residents are expected to provide an example of residential stability in the mixed income model, which brings into question mobility rates at East Meadows. When asked if they perceived East Meadows as being short term or long term for residents, management expected tenants to remain at the apartments for an extended period because of the mixed-income model, which allows a family to improve their economic status while remaining in the same home. As of now there are no examples of residents changing unit type due to increased income/socio-economic status. In terms of mobility, data provided by SAHA indicated that only a handful of residents have moved out of East Meadows since opening. ROSARIO NEW DATA—UNREPORTED/INFORMAL INCOME—use this to discuss the existence/formation of social networks . EMPLOYMENT and JOB TRAINING: Employment and Training for Able-Bodied Adults (Former WCR in Case Management) 2017 26% 2016 26% 2015 25% 2014 30% 26% 10% 20% Part Time 31% 24% 18% 30% 39% 17% 19% 32% 0% 6% 40% Full Time 32% 20% 50% 60% Job Training 30% 70% 80% 90% 100% Unemployed Figure 7. Data from Urban Strategies Each year the number of people in full and part-time work has grown. The number in job-training has gone down, but this may be a function of the number now employed. The number unemployed has remained stubbornly stable, and about 7X that of the City. Adequate job training programs and the overall supply of good jobs remain the most effective tool to promote social mobility. Urban Strategies has been instrumental in connecting residents to this system. The drop in participation may reflect 28 people leaving case management as their income increases and lives stabilize6, which is supported by the decrease in able-bodied adults under case management every year since relocation. For most, they believe that life has improved – which was the original goal of the entire project. With very little disposable income, one’s ability to fulfill the most basic needs close to home is paramount. The proximity of East Meadows to the grocery store and different bus stops makes it easy for residents to fulfill their needs within the neighborhood: “I think this is a wonderful location. Yeah. It's the bus is 10 minutes from downtown, you know, I think it's centrally located, I think it's a good area.” (Margaret) “The grocery store, like H-E-B, Family Dollar, Dollar General, King's. I pay my phone bill. It's convenient.” (Robin) “H-E-B is my main thing. And the closest Walmart over here off of Rigsby and 410. But H-E-B is the closest right here. Yeah, it’s close proximity. Lot of food places around.” (Roland) “The highway is like right here and then H-E-B is literally, you could walk to H-E-B if you really wanted to. So everything is really close.” (Elise) “What we like about it here is we have H-E-B, Walgreens, we have AutoZone and we just had University Health System Clinic right here on Walter Street. Up the street.” (Juan) As the Texas Department of Human and Community Affairs continues to refine its definition of “area of opportunity,” these resident voices truly articulate what is important in simply getting through the day with little disposable income. A dependable bus line, a grocery store nearby, the ability to fill a prescription, and a neighborhood school define an area of opportunity for the residents of East Meadows. HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE: While most populations are nearly 50% female: 50% male, EM and WP are not. Instead, East Meadows is 64% female and 36% male, while the Choice Neighborhood is 54% female and 46% male. The percentage of women to men in the developments is 15% greater than in the rest of the county. We speculate here because we have been unable to meet with enough people who have willfully left Urban Strategies to generalize. 6 29 Gender Comparisons (%) 70 64.12% 60 53.82% 49.23% 50 40 50.76% 46.18% 35.88% 30 20 10 0 FWCREM Choice Neighborhood Male Bexar County Female Figure 8. FWCREM 2017. ACS 5 Year Estimates for Choice and Bexar County percentages. The age distribution, or pyramid, also differs from the rest of the county. Overall, the number of children under 16 years old disproportionally exceeds that of young adults, and as noted, there are far more women than men in the adult population. Thus there are fewer able-bodied adults to raise and mentor more children. Figure 9. Source: FWCREM 2017 and ACS 2011-2016. 30 Beyond being purely interesting and unique, this gender balance also has social implications; of the 185 households in the developments, 151 are female-headed, and of those female-headed households, 109 have children (59%). In comparison, 34% of households in the Choice Neighborhood are female-headed and 17% of households in Bexar County are female-headed. Female-Headed Households 90 81.62% 80 % of total households 70 60 50 40 34.06% 30 16.52% 20 10 0 FWCREM Choice Neighborhood Bexar County Figure 10. FWCREM 2017. Source: ACS 5 Year Estimates. This demographic data is critical for gaining a better understanding of what a typical household looks like in not only the Choice Neighborhood, but more specifically in the subsidized housing units in the neighborhood, which includes East Meadows. From here, organizations involved in implementing housing strategies focused on impacting individuals can adapt their approaches in order to better fit the population that is being served. Female-headed households in tightly integrated communities raise healthy, happy children. Femaleheaded households living in isolation from others struggle to do so – for financial, emotional, physical, and social reasons associated with child-rearing. As we will explore shortly, a sense of community has yet to develop at East Meadows. The provision of some sort of supportive system for these young families (much like those found on many tax-credit properties built and managed by non-profit developers in San Antonio) should be considered in the short-term. ETHNIC and RACIAL COMPOSITION: The community now living at EM and WP is unique in its diversity yet totally representative of San Antonio’s overall demographics. As a city, San Antonio has two well-represented ethnic groups [Hispanic (64%) and Anglo (25%)], and a small percentage of African-Americans (7%), plus even smaller percentages of other ethnicities and nationalities. Yet in the city, these groups live in separate communities and 31 neighborhoods. Many of our middle-income neighborhoods are mixed, but lower and higher-income neighborhoods are not. East Meadows and Wheatley Park defy that pattern; the developments may be the most ethnically-mixed communities in San Antonio, especially amongst our working class and lowerincome neighborhoods. Race/Ethnicity Comparisons FWCREM Choice Neighborhood 3.9 Bexar County 4% 7.2% 27.6% 28.9% 31.4% 59.5% 60.6% 68.5% 7.6% Latino/Hispanic African American Anglo Other Figure 11. Race/Ethnicity for Former Wheatley Courts' residents and present day East Meadows residents. This dataset does not include market-rate or WP residents. Of over 200 neighborhoods in the entire city of San Antonio, less than 20 have an ethnic mix like EM and WP. The ability to create and maintain a diverse community such as this will be a model for the rest of the city as we continue to struggle with segregation. Some of the challenges have already surfaced, as residents sometimes feel they have been ‘slighted’ due to their ethnicity. A Hispanic woman, for example, felt she had been unduly singled out for an infraction due to her race, as she perceives the management to be predominantly African-American although the racial/ethnic identities of the management team reflect the population of East Meadows. It will be critical to remain cognizant of the diversity of the management team, as this community continues to form. SENSE of COMMUNITY at EAST MEADOWS: Individuals at East Meadows and Wheatley Park – especially those who were former Wheatley Courts residents – seem to be doing better than they were five years ago. “I pretty much like everything. Nobody really mess with me out here and the office is cool with me too.” (Daniel) 32 “It's a good place to have my kids from being from the Courts if you ever lived in the Courts. It's way better. But if you didn't live in the courts you wouldn't understand.” (Ariel) “In a way I'm glad [Wheatley Courts] is gone, it's real nice out here, man. I love it.” (Ruth) “I love it. And it's so nice to sit out there, it's so peaceful. I've taken pictures everywhere, sent it to all my friends and family, Facebook, everything. Even my church, and my pastor told me don't let nobody mess up my blessing.” (Margaret) But beyond personal accomplishments, the second goal of the Choice Neighborhood project is to encourage community between residents and the neighborhood. Research shows that people who live in community, as opposed to having few to no interpersonal ties to others, have lower rates of infant mortality, higher life expectancies, lower crime rates in their communities, high rates of educational attainment, higher rates of social mobility, and lower levels of depression (Ellen, Kubrinet et al., MacQueen, Chetty, Roberts, Sampson) Research also shows that the ability to live in community is not unique to the wealthy; historically, American inner-city neighborhoods have been rife with a sense community – often at a city block or neighborhood level (Anderson, Small, Whyte, Gans). However, there is no question that America’s inner-cities have diminished, and along with them inner-city communities. With the refocused attention on our inner-cities, are we bringing back our communities as well as we’re bringing back our buildings? Overwhelmingly, residents who live in East Meadows, including the families, tend to “keep to themselves.” A surprising majority claimed to have cordial interactions and acquaintance-level relationships with their neighbors -- but nothing more. “I stay to myself so I really don't go out or associate with people who live in the Courts. We just say ‘hi’ and ‘how are you doing?’ and, you know, just be respectful. Just to know how you're my neighbor. Just things like that.” (Ariel) “I'm a loner, I don't have friends. My kids is my friends. You fool with your neighbors, and you fool with your friends, there's a problem. And I ain't trying to have no problems and be put out.” (Ruth) 33 "I can ask my neighbors for a small favor" (EM residents) 70 60 Percentage 50 40 30 20 10 0 Agree Neutral Disagree Figure 12. CN Survey 2017-2018. In turn, people don’t rely on one another to help fulfill their daily needs: This mentality may be attributed to the fact that residents are usually not home, and when they are they just prefer to stay inside. However, a few attributed their reluctance to form close relationships with other residents to their perception of safety, explaining to us that keeping to themselves helps them stay away from trouble. For those returning from the old Wheatley Courts, past experiences may be influencing this decision to “keep to myself,” especially as young mothers are now raising children the age they were when they may have lived at Wheatley. Management also sensed this lack of social interaction amongst EM residents. While their ultimate goal is to have interactions between all groups -- including people of different ages, ethnic backgrounds, and incomes -- they seem to think the residents may need more time in order to settle in, and then possibly get to know each other better. Interestingly, neighborhood residents are often more willing to participate in East Meadows’ organized events than East Meadows residents are. Management remarked that neighborhood kids have been participating in events put on by the apartments, even more so than kids that live in the apartments. Parents in the neighborhood may be more comfortable in the community, and thus have a certain level of trust in others that their children will be safe. This feeling of trust is yet to develop between EM residents. There seems to be much greater interaction between residents in the Wheatley Park Senior Living than in East Meadows. Interestingly, WP does not contain any market-rate units and thus the assumption of social interaction is not as critical to the success of the development, according to the model on which it 34 is based. More WP residents participate in events and neighborhood meetings than the East Meadows residents do – although many of these events and meetings are advertised as family friendly and/or are meant specifically for children. This increased social interaction, especially when compared to East Meadows, may simply be due to age. Many of the seniors we met were quite active, yet do not have the responsibilities of raising children and working, and thus are freer to make friends and enjoy one another. The stronger bonds in Wheatley Park could also be attributed to the shared indoor spaces, particularly the common living areas on the first floor, as well as the gym, the billiards room, and the outdoor patio. This highlights the importance of design when it comes to creating community. 35 Figure 13. Wheatley Park residents congregating across the street at Malik’s. “I know people here. Through the apartment meetings, stuff like that. When we go to meetings. And they smoke and I smoke so we hang out over here at the store.” (Allison). Not only do many of the residents congregate in these spaces, but there are also various events held in these common areas throughout the week, including Bible studies and game nights. By allowing the residents to mingle and participate in fun events within these areas, the Wheatley Park facility has encouraged the residents to meet and make friends with each other, which gives a heightened sense of community: “They have the monthly meeting for us, we have a good time. So everybody got to meet everybody.” (Robin) The residents of Wheatley Park seem to be very satisfied with the events, as well as the management for planning these events. Most interviewees spoke positively about the WP management team and seemed to have good relationships and trust with the managers of Wheatley Park. ARE PEOPLE DOING BETTER? Are the residents of East Meadows and Wheatley Park doing better than they were five years ago? Are the former Wheatley Courts residents – no matter where they live – doing better than they were five years ago? When asked that question directly, most answer affirmatively – for themselves and for their community, although analysis of individual indicators would not yield the same impression: 36 “There's not people roaming the streets in the middle of the night. It's like always, there were bad gunshots all the time. No, it's not as bad as it used to be. A lot safer. I feel a lot safer now. (Joanne, East Meadows) “I went to meetings and I heard about what they’re gonna do to stop all the madness that goes on in the neighborhood, and I felt like it will be safe now for me to bring my son.” (Gabby, East Meadows) “It's nice. There's no problem. It's quiet. You don't nothing but the trains and the birds. You don't hear nothing else, because where I stay is right there. It's open up. It's a very nice apartments. You know, I have no problem with it at all. None.” (Vivienne, Sutton Oaks) “I love it here. I mean we have no problems, we haven’t had any drama or nothing like that. Like when we were in Wheatley Courts we used to see cops driving by so fast or doing chases, or there were shootings, and we haven’t heard none of that yet. So, I like it. And the girls, well, they like it too because a lot of their friends that they had before stayed in this area too, so they all play in the back. So it’s pretty nice.” (Caroline, East Meadows) “I like where I'm at, right here. I been here for five years, I wanna stay another 25 years. (Larry, Sutton Oaks) How has your community changed in the past 3 years (EM residents)? 70 58% 60 Percentage 50 42% 40 30 20 10 0 0 Declined Stayed the same improved Figure 14. CN Survey 2017-2018. Quotes like these fail to align with the social indicators we have been measuring and monitoring for the past five years. But when we look at everything together – decision making, income, household structure – together they seem to signal that life has changed significantly. People express optimism and their decision making reflects that sense of optimism and increased control over their own lives and their children’s lives. In the same way that parents chose a place to live so too do they choose a school for their children to attend – people are taking increased control and responsibility for their own lives which 37 comes out of an increased sense of stability, security, and optimism for one’s future. That is most definitely an impact of the Choice Neighborhood investments. The lack of community development could threaten this though. When the novelty of life at East Meadows wears off and daily pressures again dominate one’s life, optimism may wane. When pressures of daily life become overwhelming, there are two ways we tend to alleviate them: with money and with community. For some of us, we buy things: we buy after-school care and summer camps for example. For others, community serves that function. For those with neither sufficient income nor membership in a community, the stress can become unbearable. So the question may be: despite the overwhelming feeling of optimism right now, is it sustainable without significant community development or significant increases in disposable income? On-site services (or service coordination) would alleviate some of these difficulties. East Meadows and Wheatley Park are little worlds of their own right now, full of people who still operate as individuals for the most part, but with the dream (for some) of being part of a larger community. While not as focused a target as the residents of the new development, those living in the greater Choice Neighborhood also share the same hopes and concerns for themselves, their children, their neighbors, and their community. Ultimately, these separate individuals, living in separate, and yet unformed communities, will blend into one and thus strengthen and revitalize life in the Choice Neighborhood. The following sections are our attempt to understand and represent individual and community life in the neighborhood surrounding East Meadows. LIFE in the CHOICE NEIGHBORHOOD Approximately 10,000 people live in 3,629 households in the Choice Neighborhood, which consists of two neighborhoods, Harvard Place and Eastlawn, united into the HPEL neighborhood association plus parts of Jefferson Heights and Denver Heights. In surveying 447 randomly selected households from this population (thus achieving a 96% confidence rate that these answers are representative) we sought to answer some of the same questions we had of EM and WP residents: what is life like for you as an individual? For you in this community? What are your concerns for yourself and your community? Do you anticipate change with fear and trepidation, or with excitement for the future? 38 The neighborhood survey, a central component of this study, was conducted on the basis that the community itself is our most worthy assessment of progress. Meeting people in the comfort of their own doorways presents a unique opportunity to collect unfettered public input about needs that can be observed in real-time. Residents frequently expand their feedback beyond the dimension of our survey questions, and contextualize our findings with lived experience that helps capture the actual condition of the Choice Neighborhood. This year’s neighborhood survey, which was administered to 447 residents, asked questions linked to every institution that we examine in this neighborhood section, thus gauging how effective they have been in changing - and improving - life in the neighborhood. Figure 59. The 2017 Choice Neighborhood survey crew. The total number of people in the Choice Neighborhood has stayed fairly consistent over the life of the grant (although ACS data makes precision difficult due to the moving averages they report). The neighborhood is far more racially and ethnically diverse than other neighborhoods in San Antonio. American Community Survey data reports that the Choice Neighborhood is 60% Hispanic and 31% African-American; our neighborhood survey findings are fairly similar: 50% of respondents reported Hispanic and 41% said African-American racial heritage. Historically the area was African American, but by the 1970s the ethnic/racial mix had begun to change as the Hispanic population became the majority. Yet the citywide perception remains that this is the African-American part of town. 39 Choice Neighborhood Bexar County 4% 7.2% 28.9% 31.4% 59.5% 60.6% 7.6% Latino/Hispanic African American Anglo Other Figure 15. Data from ACS 5 Year Estimates The perception that it remains predominately African-American may come from the fact that the average number of years an African-American family has lived in the neighborhood is 17 compared to 10 for an Hispanic family7. Of those who were surveyed, African-Americans were significantly older (61 years) compared to Hispanics (48 years). Overall, 43% of residents in the CN own their own home (compared to 7 Neighborhood Survey 2018 40 58% in Bexar County); 45% of Hispanic respondents owned their home while 40% of African Americans do. The typical household in the Choice Neighborhood household has 2.5 adults. Perhaps many of these households are multi-generational – which is a very positive adaptation to the stresses of poverty. Occupancy Type 70.0% 50.0% 58.3% 57.0% 60.0% 43.0% 41.7% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Choice Neighborhood Owner occupied Bexar County Renter occupied Figure 16. Data from ACS 5 Year Estimates Household Types 80% 74.7% 67.6% 70% Percent of Total 60% 52.9% 50% 40% 34.1% 32.4% 31.2% Female-headed househoulds Husband-wife households 32.4% 30% 20% 16.5% 10% 0% Choice Neighborhood Households w/ own children "Family" households Bexar County Figure 17. Data from ACS 5 Year Estimates There are 20% more households with children in the Choice Neighborhood than there are in Bexar County. At the same time, the dependency ratio for the neighborhood (the number of children and seniors for every working-age adult) is 79.9, compared to 59.9 in the county; the Choice Neighborhood 41 has WAY more children and far fewer adults than elsewhere in the city – putting pressure on the adults there to raise more children. The average income level in the neighborhood has remained fairly consistent over the past five years. Median Household Income $60,000 $49,655 $50,699 $52,230 $52,353 $22,549 $23,137 2015 2016 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $24,576 $22,631 $20,000 $10,000 2013 2014 Choice Neighborhood Bexar County Figure 18. Data from ACS 5 Year Estimates In 2016 the median income in the Choice Neighborhood was approximately 50% that of the county. While the median income in Bexar County has increased 5% since 2013, the median income in the Choice Neighborhood has increased only 2%. Anecdotally we hear that the more substantial household income increases we witness in the county are due to new people moving in from outside the region; there has been very little of that sort of mobility into the Choice Neighborhood. While the average length of time that survey respondents have lived in the Choice Neighborhood was 12 years, newcomers have not moved in from out of town, but rather from other parts of town. This may change as the housing stock changes to accommodate higher incomes (as discussed in the housing section). 40% of households in the Choice Neighborhood live below the federal poverty line (53% for children). By definition, then, the Choice Neighborhood remains a neighborhood of concentrated poverty (W.J. Wilson 1998) although the poverty rate has fallen slightly. 42 While the income level in the neighborhood is greater than in East Meadows, the range is probably greater in East Meadows, given its mixed-income nature. We are not privy to the income of all East Meadows residents, but almost 33% of them make more than 80% of the area median income (thus greater than $42,0008); basically, the new development may be much more diverse economically than the neighborhood – a clear reversal from Wheatley Courts. Approximate Income Distributions 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% East Meadows Choice Neighborhood Bexar County Figure 19. Data from ACS 5 Year Estimates According to the ACS the number of adults without a high school diploma has been decreasing since 2014. Ultimately, this steady increase in educational attainment will impact median income levels if people remain in the neighborhood as their income rises. % ADULTS CHOICE NEIGHBORHOOD WITHOUT HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA (population 25 years and over ) 8 42% (2010) 46% (2011) 42% (2012) 41% (2013) 40% (2014) 36% (2015) 16% (2016) This figure is based on the median income of $52,353 in the county. If using MSA, the figure will be higher. 43 About 50% of adults interviewed are employed full or part time (the low number may be a function of who is home at the time). 17% are retired. Of those that work, the average commute time is less than 15 minutes, so people work fairly close by. Interviewers report that many people work in a variety of locations though – mostly those in construction who are driving to multiple sites. 57% of households have a computer and 93% of those have internet in their home. Additional census data is appended to the end of this chapter. When asked to reflect on the state of their neighborhood, we asked a number of different questions to try and ascertain how residents perceive the neighborhood, and any changes they have experienced or Figure 20. CN Survey 2017-2018. witnessed. While many of the social indicators have remained fairly consistent in the neighborhood over the past five years, there is a rising sense of optimism amongst residents—much like at East Meadows. Despite the shrinkage in the number of businesses (explored more fully in the “Neighborhood” section) and the rise in crime statistics, people feel they can fulfill their needs better than ever before, and they feel safer in the community than in previous years. The following graphs illustrate the distribution of answers to questions such as “my neighborhood …”. The bars represent the percentage of people answering the question from disagree through agree (or from seriously disagree to strongly agree). 44 Figure 21. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. Resident Perceptions of Changes in Level of Crimes 100 90 80 30 37 27 40 35 Percentage 70 60 50 40 54 52 37 50 37 30 20 10 16 13 2013 2014 21 23 28 2015 2016 2017 0 Decreased Stayed the same Increased Figure 22. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. 45 Perception of Severity of Crime 100% Percentage of Responses 80% 12 13 90% 30 24 32 25 24 70% 24 60% 50% 31 35 30% 36 40 40% 27 18 24 20% 10% 18 0% 3 18 21 4 7 6 2015 2016 2017 19 7 2 2014 2013 Survey Year Not at all serious Not that serious Serious Somewhat serious Very serious Figure 23. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. Similar to our understanding of the sense of wellbeing in East Meadows, these contradictory findings in the neighborhood lend themselves to such an analysis as well. Can a sense of community alleviate some of the challenging social indicators? To measure a sense of community in the neighborhood questions include: how many people do you know on your block? Do you trust them to take care of your house? Your children? Do you think this is a good neighborhood to grow up in? 73% of survey respondents feel the neighborhood is a good place to grow up, raise a family, and grow old. Nearly 25% of those surveyed say they know everyone on their block (60% know less than 5). African-Americans are far more likely to know more people on their block than Latino households do (of those that answered that they know everyone, 64% are African-American, despite being less wellrepresented in the sample). This, again, may be due to length of time in the neighborhood, as AfricanAmerican households have lived in their homes for about 10 years longer than Latino households. This difference between owners and renters in the neighborhood is substantial. Recalling that 43% of those in the Choice Neighborhood own the home they live in (compared to 51% in San Antonio), home owners are more likely to feel they are a part of a larger community than renters are. Of the 447 households surveyed, 184 of them were homeowners, and as expected, their answers to some of the questions vary greatly from renters’. The question asking how many people on the block you know 46 provided almost opposite responses. Homeowners were more likely to know everyone on the block and renters were much more likely to only know 0-2 people. Homeowners can have positive impacts on neighborhoods: they create stability, hopefully use How many people do you know on your block? 33% Every body 16% 18% 6 to 10 12% 29% 29% 3 to 5 20% 0 to 2 43% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Own Rent 35% 40% 45% 50% Figure 24. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. neighborhood facilities, and spend time investing, financially or emotionally, in the neighborhood. Most residents surveyed agree that they belong in the neighborhood, with a greater percentage of homeowners strongly agreeing with the statement. Do you feel like you belong in the neighborhood? 70% 60% 60% 54% 50% 40% 30% 24% 20% 10% 13% 6% 5% 12% 9% 10% 7% 0% Strongly disagree Disagree Neither Own Agree Strongly agree Rent 47 There is a large discrepancy between those who own and rent and their desire to live in the neighborhood for the next several years. The majority of homeowners, above 80%, hope to continue living in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, more renters expect to leave the neighborhood. Do you hope to remain in the neighborhood for the next 5 to 10 years? Percentage of Responses 100% 84% 80% 65% 60% 35% 40% 16% 20% 0% Yes No Own Rent Figure 26. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018 When residents were asked if they feel connected to their community in 2015 and 2016, the majority each year agreed. Comparing homeowners to renters throughout the years, homeowners have tended to Agree or Disagree: "I Feel Connected to My Neigborhood" 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 38% 55% 56% 60% 68% 67% 10% 9% 33% 24% 20% 21% 29% 21% Owner Renter 19% 24% 21% 24% Owner Renter Owner Renter 2015 2016 Disagree Neither 2018 Agree Figure 27. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. 48 feel more connected to their neighborhood than renters. However, in 2018 the sense of having a connection with the neighborhood became increasingly similar between the two groups. Compared to the past four years, there has recently been a palpable increase in optimism in the neighborhood. More people feel that the community has improved. Perceptions of How the Community Has Changed in the Past 3 Years 100% Percentage of Responses 90% 80% 39 43 35 34 70% 60 60% 50% 40% 40 40 40 39 30% 29 20% 10% 21 18 2013 2014 25 26 11 0% 2015 2016 2017 Year Community has declined Community has stayed the same Community has improved When asked about the future, residents were equally optimistic: 49 Perceptions of How the Community Will Change in the Next 3 Years 100% Percentage of Responses 90% 80% 70% 51% 57% 50% 59% 60% 69% 50% 40% 30% 32% 32% 36% 26% 20% 20% 10% 17% 0% 2013 Community will decline 11% 14% 15% 11% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Community will stay the same Community will improve Figure 29. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. When asked for evidence of that, ironically, most point to new streets, sidewalks and the new single family houses than to anything else. The obvious investment in the area has made a significant difference in people’s perceptions of it, and, consequently, of their quality of life. MAJOR FINDINGS: People        109 of the 246 original Wheatley Courts households remain in case management (44%); 15% of original Wheatley Courts households have returned to live in East Meadows and Wheatley Park Senior Living; When residents chose a place to live in 2014 they did so quickly and many moved a second and third time. When residents chose to return (or not) to East Meadows, they deliberated and weighed the pluses and minuses of another move – indicating a new sense of control over one’s daily life; Median household income of former WCR has remained fairly stagnant, although the mean has increased appreciably, indicating some families are doing significantly better than others; Few residents are aware of the mixed-income nature of East Meadows; Individuals at East Meadows express optimism about their future, although they have met very few people at East Meadows; Individuals at Wheatley Park have formed communities; individuals at East Meadows have not; 50   Those living in the Choice Neighborhood express increasing optimism about their community; African-American families have been in the neighborhood much longer, and know more people there, yet have lower rates of home ownership; 51 Decennial Census and American Community Survey Data: METRIC CN 2010 CN 2012 CN 2013 CN 2014 CN 2015 CN 2016 Bexar County 2016 source: 1,858,699 P1 SF1 100% data POPULATION ESTIMATES Total population -- 100% count 9,884 Total population -- 5 year estimates 9,884 9,936 12,758 9,543 12,343 9,194 12,514 9,977 13,139 9,944 13,248 1,858,699 B01003 ACS 5 year estimates # and % men 5,149 (47.81%) 5,192 (45.7%) 4,933 (45.07%) 4,850 (44.6%) 5,292 (45%) 5,355 915,173 (49.23%) S0101 ACS 5 year 5,620 (52.18%) 6,155 (54.24%) 6,010 (54.92) 6,004 (55.31) 6,266 (54%) 6,241 943,526 (50.76%) S0101 ACS 5 year # households 3,667 3,628 3,466 3,397 3,449 3,629 623,321 S1101 ACS 5 year Average household size 2.97 3.07 3.05 3.21 3.29 3.19 2.93 S1101 ACS 5 year "Family” households 2509 (68%) 2,480 2,243 2,222 2,316 (67.14%) 2,710 421,221 S1101 ACS 5 year # and % women (46.18%) (53.82%) (67.58%) 52 Households with own children 1437 (39%) 1,424 1,279 1,271 1218 (35%) 1,918* 202,027 (32.44%) S1101 ACS 5 year Husband-wife families (43.8%) 1101 36.57% (907) 37.37% 904 (40.6%) 869 (38.6%) 1,132 202,100 (32.42%) S1101 ACS 5 year Female-headed households (43.12%) 1082 50.7% (1,258) 51.30% 1,055 (47.47%) 1,162 (50%) 1,236 102,989 (16.52%) S1101 ACS 5 year BASIC DEMOGRAPHICS Median age 31 (29 for males, 33 for females) 30 (27 for males, 32 for females 30(28 for males, and 31 for females) 29 (29 for males, and 30 for females) 28 (27 for males, and 28 for females) 27 (26 for males, 28.8 for females) 33.2 (31.9 for males and 34.5 for females) S0101 ACS 5 year % AfricanAmerican 30.40% 34.10% 29.50% 30.70% 34.40% 31.4% 7.6% B01001B ACS 5 year % Latino 67.62% 61.30% 65.08% 63.50% 59% 60.63% 59.5% B01001I ACS 5 year % Anglo 2.56% 4% 4.87% 4.70% 5.40% 7.17% 28.9% B01001H ACS 5 year SELECTED ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 53 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $19,815 $21,565 HOUSEHOLD INCOME -WHEATLEY COURTS FAMILIES $22,630 $24,576 $22,549 $7,339 $8,299 $9,040 $23,136 $52,353 S1901 ACS 5 year SAHA Working-age adults 7,330 7,841 7,497 7,577 7,896 7,896 1,424,605 S2301 ACS 5 year % IN LABOR FORCE 54% 54% 56% 54% 51.40% 54.7% 65% S2301 ACS 5 year % UNEMPLOYED (not in labor force) 46% 46% 44% 46% 48.60% 45.3% 35% S2301 ACS 5 year DEPENDENCY RATIO 78.7 74.4 75.86 72.6 77.8 79.9 59.9 S0101 ACS 5 year % RECEIVING SSI 15% 20% 23% 23% 22.80% 15.9% 6.2% DP03 ACS 5 year % RECEIVING FOOD STAMP/SNAP BENEFITS 34.25% 41% 41% 42% 45% 39.73% 14.5% S2201 ACS 5 year % FAMILIES BELOW POVERTY 44.48% 47.86% 44% 40.30% 44.68% 40.2% 13.6% S1702 ACS 5 year 54 % CHILDREN BELOW POVERTY N/A 63% 60% 56% 62% 53.1% 24.31% S1702 ACS 5 year EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT % ADULTS WITHOUT HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA (population 25 years and over ) 42% 46% 42.30% 41.20% 40% 36.66% 16.6% B15003 ACS 5 year % ADULTS WITH B.S. 4% 3.57% 4.16% 3.77 4.18% 4.34% 17.2% B15003 ACS 5 year HOUSING STATISTICS Total number housing units 4,351 4,226 4,179 4,129 4,236 4,399 627,299 B25001 ACS 5 year Occupied housing Units 3,667 3,628 3,466 3,397 3,499 3,629 623,321 B25001 ACS 5 year % owner occupied 45% 44.00% 52% 49% 43.00% 43% 58.27% B25003 ACS 5 year 55 % renter occupied 56% 56% 48% 51% 57% 57% 41.73% B25003 ACS 5 year Median Estimated value 48,700 52,266 55,433 55,033 57,665 58,233 134,400 B25001 ACS 5 year Median Average monthly rent 533 558 538 605 696 698 902 B25064 ACS 5 year Occupied units paying rent 1,823 1,794 1,525 1,516 1,773 2,079 248,958 DP04 ACS 5 year % paying over 30% monthly income in rent 67% 69% 62% 66% 70% 61.5% 45.34% B25070 ACS 5 year 56 HOUSING One of the primary goals of the Choice Neighborhood was to create an economically integrated community and revitalize the existing housing stock, thus this chapter covers the entire housing continuum: from the construction of the new mixed-income development, through the renovation of existing homes, to the production of new houses for economically-mobile people in the neighborhood – or new people moving into the neighborhood. The Transformation Plan urged us to create “aligned housing options”; this chapter seeks to understand if that goal has been or will be realized shortly. East Meadows and Wheatley Park are the two most significant investments made in this part of the city since the Alamodome. But the goal from the beginning of this project was not for East Meadows and Wheatley Park to exist as islands – instead, they are meant to be fundamental pieces of a larger continuum of housing – a continuum that allows economically-mobile families to move from one house to another throughout their lifetime—as their needs change (from single, to partnered, to children, to youth, to senior) yet remain in the same neighborhood – because (perhaps) their community is so strong and their memories so vivid. If someone moves to East Meadows and rents an affordable apartment, over time they may develop economic stability and then mobility and eventually be able to move to the market rate units or purchase a home. All of this can happen in the Choice Neighborhood. This process is what we mean by “aligned housing options”. This chapter is divided into 4 sections that capture the stages of a housing continuum, from the rental market (including East Meadows and Wheatley Park), to single-family residential housing (including the real estate market), to renovation of owner-occupied housing, and finally to new infill housing. While this report mainly covers 2017, in this section, we drift into 2018 because the opening and leasing of the Wheatley Park Senior Living has been so impactful. NEW RENTAL UNITS East Meadows Phase 1 added 215 new rental units to the neighborhood, 33% of the units are public housing, 4% are project-based vouchers, 36% are tax credit, and 27% are market rate.9 The recent addition of Wheatley Park Senior Living [WP] adds 80 subsidized units for seniors, for 295 total new rental units. Phase III will add 117 more family units to the neighborhood by 2019. By the time of its completion, East Meadows and the Wheatley Park Senior Living will have added 412 new rental units to the neighborhood.10 Phase # Buildings # Public Housing Units # Project-Based Voucher Units # Tax Credit Units # Market Rate Units Email communication with San Antonio Housing Authority July 2018 10 San Antonio Housing Authority; Webpage: Wheatley Choice Neighborhood 9 57 East Meadows I 38 71 8 77 59 East Meadows II 20 42 0 53 24 Senior Living 1 40 36 4 0 Figure 30. Email correspondence with SAHA July 2018 The new units at East Meadows, Wheatley Park, and Sutton add to the existing 1,975 rental units in the neighborhood.11 The median average monthly rent in the CN in 2010 was $533 and in 2016 has steadily risen to $698.12 The table below shows the increase in rent in the CN before EM had even opened. CN 2010 11 12 CN 2012 CN 2013 CN 2014 CN 2015 CN 2016 Bexar County 2016 Source American Community Survey 2011-2016 American Community Survey 2011-2016 58 Median Average Monthly Rent $533 $558 $538 $605 $696 $698 $902 B25064 ACS 5 Year Figure 31. American Community Survey 2011-2016 One of the original goals of the Choice Neighborhood Initiative was to ensure 1:1 replacement of the original affordable housing units. The construction of EM, WP, and the Park at Sutton Oaks has done that. East Meadows 1 Affordability Layers (with 2017 income levels) <30% AMI $14,812 (in 2017) 30-50% AMI $24,687 (in 2017) 50-60% AMI $29,625 (in 2017) Market rate 38 units 26 units 82 units 57 units Figure 32. Email correspondence with SAHA July 2018 All former Wheatley Courts residents who qualify to return have been invited to do so. Thirteen percent have already returned to a new home in East Meadows and Wheatley Park. Because McCormick Baron Management Company keeps a separate waiting list from that managed by the local Housing Authority, others who qualify for public housing (and may have been waiting for extended periods of time) have 59 learned of the new property very slowly. Currently, the waiting list for an affordable unit at EM is less than one year, compared to two to six years at SAHA. There are two types of units available: garden apartments (one floor apartments) and townhomes (multiple floors). All units face the street; however, the townhomes have backdoor access in addition to a front door on the street. Each of the buildings are three-stories tall, and the garden apartments share an interior stairwell. East Meadows includes many safety features, such as a gate, key-code access, and safety patrol officers. One of the goals of the TP was to improve the residents’ sense of personal safety by adding streetlights.13 East Meadows has one, two, three, and four bedroom units, and each floor is mixed by income, as well as each building. 1 bedroom garden apt 1 bedroom flat 13 30% AMI 2 50% AMI 1 60% AMI 21 Market Rate 4 TOTALS 28 0 1 7 1 9 Transformation Plan pg. 19 60 2 bedroom 12 5 34 garden apt 2 bedroom flat 3 0 5 2 bedroom 5 0 10 townhouse 3 bedroom 1 11 0 garden apt 3 bedroom 19 7 5 townhouse 4 bedroom 0 0 2 garden apt 4 bedroom 0 3 1 townhouse TOTALS 42 28 85 Figure 33. Email correspondence with SAHA on July 18, 2018. 31 82 12 3 20 18 0 12 9 40 0 2 0 4 60 215 units Some of the community amenities included in EM are a pool, playground, volleyball court, and community room. The units include central air conditioning, dishwasher, washer and dryer, microwave, refrigerator, and energy efficient appliances. Dogs and cats under 20 lbs are allowed, and EM is smoke free. As for WP, the shared amenities for residents include a fitness center, theater room, community room, billiards room, as well as laundry and sitting rooms on each floor. Individual apartments include air conditioning, vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops, and utilities are included. As of June 26, 2018, SAHA is working with DHR Architects, Bender Wells Clark Design, and others to build a public park on a narrow piece of land between Lamar and Arthur Street, on Gevers and Mittman Street. This directly follows goals in the TP to increase green space, on this piece of land specifically.14 During a meeting held on June 26, 2018 at HIS Bridge Builders addressing the park, residents expressed some of their desires for the park, including a walking path, garden, fitness equipment, and swings. The proposed plan is for the park to be multi-purpose, so any resident in the neighborhood can utilize it - from young children to seniors. 14 Transformation Plan pg. 49 61 IMPACT of the DEVELOPMENT on the NEIGHBORHOOD: Property Values A question/concern of almost any neighborhood improvement is the impact it has on property values and the real estate market more generally. It is difficult to separate individual factors from one another in explaining increases in housing values. Why are prices going up for single-family houses in the CN? Because prices are going up everywhere? Or because of the increased demand for ‘affordable’ housing (housing that those making <80% of AMI can afford – thus $39,500 and a house worth approximately $120,000)? Or because East Meadows and Wheatley Park are new developments that may be generating externalities, does its sheer presence impact the value of the properties around them – in this case positively? One of the hopes for East Meadows were the externalities it could produce; would it encourage a reinvigorated real estate market on San Antonio’s eastside? In any case, there is change in real estate activity in the CN. There are 2,748 single-family residences in the Choice Neighborhood and 98 multi-family units15 (outside of those owned and/or managed by SAHA). According to the Census Bureau, 43% of households in the CN own their home while 57% rent.16 Yet census data has a wide margin of error, and the true range is that 40% to 45% of households own their 15 16 Includes duplexes, of which there are many. Missing 1% from those interviewed who did not know if the unit was rented or owned 62 home while 53% to 60% of households rent. This is consistent with neighborhood survey findings that indicate that 42% of homes in the surveyed sample are owner occupied and 57% renter occupied. 17 Figure 34. American Community Survey 2011-2016. Figure 35. American Community Survey 2011-2016. 17 American Community Survey 2011-2016 63 The average appraisal value in 2018 is $62,456 (compared to $196,660 in COSA), and the average sales price last year was $55,492, which is 12% lower than the appraised value.18 This is odd, since sales prices are usually higher than appraisal values in other parts of town19. Average (appraisal) value CNI and Bexar Cty $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 2011 2012 2013 2014 CNI property values 2015 2016 2017 2018 Bexar Cty property values Figure 36. Bexar County Appraisal District 18 Bexar County Appraisal District and Zillow.com Different methods used to appraise the value of a piece of real property. With fair market value appraising the assessor will value the property based on similar sales that have taken place in the area; when using a cost method of appraising, the assessor determines the property value based on how much it would cost to replace it. If the property is not new, assessors determine the amount of depreciation that has taken place and how much the property would be worth if it was empty. The Bexar County Appraiser uses a cost method minus depreciation method of appraising values, and then considers the fair market value in addition. This method can result in older houses being appraised at a higher level while newer houses are appraised lower, but obtain higher values on the market. 19 64 Appraisal Rate Changes 2011-2018 (percent) in CN 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 -10.00 -15.00 Figure 37. Bexar County Appraisal District Most of the houses in the neighborhood are at least 70 years old, and their close proximity and resemblance to Dignowity Hill and Denver Heights – two rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods – may mean that they are vulnerable to rapid change (price fluctuations with changing demand). The same house in DIgnowity Hill is valued nearly 5X as much as the same house in the Choice Neighborhood. Figure 38. (L-R): 1620 Burnet, in the Choice Neighborhood, 2018 appraisal value is $57,000; 618 Muncey, in Dignowity Hill, 2018 appraisal value is $269,270; 1220 S Pine, in Denver Heights, 2018 appraisal value is $160,730. One of the goals of the Choice Neighborhood project is to revitalize the housing stock in the neighborhood and to increase the range of property values, so that the community diversifies economically (as opposed to isolating the low-income population into one or two neighborhoods). While property values (according to the Bexar County appraiser) have begun to rise, they are not rising as quickly as the rest of the county, and they remain significantly below the average property value of the county. The rate at which they are rising has accelerated recently though (according to the chief appraisal, as a direct result of the growing strength of the regional economy). 65 Appraisal values have risen 47% percent in the past five years. Since the average house value in the CN is $62,456, then property taxes on that house have risen by about $825. Given that the average income in the CN is $23,136, this increase is 4% of one’s income, which is substantial when disposable income is minimal. In addition, the range of property values has gone from about $100,000 in 2014 to almost $200,000 in 2018, due almost entirely to additions at the higher price points. Figure 39. Average appraisal value of all single family houses in the CN. BCAD, 2017. With the city-wide (and nationwide) concern over the lack of affordable housing in urban cores, this neighborhood remains affordable to many, and so far has avoided the rapid rises in property values seen in the immediate vicinity. Denver Heights, for example, is located immediately to the southwest of CN; that neighborhood witnessed a 40% rise in property appraisal values in 2018. Cities need neighborhoods like the CN desperately; the challenge we face is to maintain its affordability while preserving its (fairly deteriorated) housing stock and providing additional affordable housing where there’s room (i.e., infill housing). While appraisal values have been rising since 2014, at a relatively rapid rate of increase, listing prices have outpaced that rise even quicker. 66 Average Sale, List, and Appraisal Values in CN $160,000.00 $140,000.00 $120,000.00 $100,000.00 $80,000.00 $60,000.00 $40,000.00 $20,000.00 $April 4 2016 Average Appraisal Value July 17 2017 Average List Price May 31 2018 Average Sales Price Figure 40. Bexar County Appraisal District and Zillow.com The values gathered about list prices are part of a synchronic analysis, or taken from one day in the year, to represent a slice in time of real estate activity. For this report, we gathered data from Zillow.com and BCAD on May 31, 2018. In the Choice Neighborhood, since 2016:  appraised values have increased 68% o list prices have increased 107%  and sales prices have increased 16%. These vast differences signal very optimistic and entrepreneurial sellers. 67 Figure 41. BCAD 2015-2017 and Zillow.com. The widening gap between appraisal values and listing prices indicates that those selling houses are placing a greater value on the house than the appraiser has, possibly because of changes in the neighborhood rather than changes to the actual building. IMPACT of the DEVELOPMENT on the NEIGHBORHOOD: Sales of Existing Houses 68 Figure 42. Zillow.com On May 31, 2018 there were 31 houses for sale in the Choice Neighborhood. There were more houses for sale to the west of Walters Street than to the east, and some clustering around Gevers and Potomac Street. 69 Homes for sale Per SQFT of homes for sale Average 2017 Appraisal Value $51,612 $40 Average List Price $138,068 $106 Figure 43. Bexar County Appraisal District and Zillow.com Figure 44. Bexar County Appraisal District and Zillow.com Out of these houses for sale in the CN in June, only five are owner occupied; the rest are renter occupied (the top five addresses in the chart above are owner occupied). 817 Potomac and 1751 E Crockett are new construction, which could be why the differences between appraisal value and list price are so vast. The tremendous difference between appraisal value and asking price may be a sign of very confident homeowners and investors, who may be speculating that the improvements in the neighborhood – and in the surrounding neighborhoods – may warrant higher sales prices. But thus far, with limited data, it 70 appears that pre-owned houses are not achieving the asking prices owners wish for. From 2017 to 2018, when looking at a single day, the average listing price has increased 61% and the sales price 16%. 2014 2015 Number houses listed/sold20 9 Average listing price $62,972 Average BCAD appraisal value Average Sale Price April 4, 2016 July 17, 2017 May 31, 2018 16 32 listed 17 sold 31 listed $66,444 $84,299 (when 3 houses listed >$200K removed, mean = $70,500) $136,068 (when 6 houses listed >$200K removed, mean = $109,178) $37,595 $41,960 $65,495 $55,942 $48,890 $41,854 Figure 45. 2016 Impact Assessment and Bexar County Appraisal District In contrast to the form of real estate speculation described above, the houses immediately surrounding East Meadows do not reflect the renewed interest seen in the rest of the neighborhood. As of now, East Meadows has not had the anticipated spillover effect on real estate values into the blocks immediately surrounding the development. The average price of the houses within 4-5 blocks of the development is $38.38/square foot, compared to $72.59/square foot for houses for sale in the rest of the neighborhood. Perhaps it is too soon since the construction of EM to see these impacts, but the hope outlined in the Transformation Plan is for the surrounding blocks of EM to be the starting point of a wave of revitalization. In addition, residents are aware of the land acquisition required for Phase III; many of those homes were acquired at a higher price than anticipated. Are these homeowners postponing investing and instead speculating on future SAHA acquisitions? 20 2018 Bexar County Appraisal District and 2016 Impact Assessment 71 Figure 46. Zillow.com As appraisal values and asking prices increase, some residents express concern that they will be priced out of the neighborhood, saying, “Eventually they will push us out.” Homeowners in the neighborhood feel pressure from real estate agents and speculators to sell their homes. Some homeowners in the neighborhood stated: “Every day I get a stack of cards and letters [from investors], and now they are calling.” “They take pictures, and it infuriates me” 72 Some are resentful of the attention, saying that it creates “trauma in this community. One house selling for $300,000? That’s an insult.”21 Figure 47. A note left to a homeowner by a developer seeking to buy their house. While we cannot prevent these types of marketing techniques from occurring, we can educate homeowners on the value of their investment, and make them aware of the opportunities available through the City and County for help with home repair and upkeep. In addition, the Bexar County Appraiser has expressed interest in personally educating more people about tax exemptions they may qualify for, thus keeping their taxes lower. While this kind of pressure is largely psychological (offering cash to a homeowner who is on a limited income is quite enticing), there is a definite possibility that the rising costs may be forcing people out of the neighborhood. Mortgage Foreclosures Tax Foreclosures Total # of Foreclosures Choice Neighborhood 2017 (66%) (34%) 38 Bexar County 2017 (91%) (9%) 4,384 Figure 48. Bexar County and CN Foreclosures – Bexar County There were 38 foreclosures in the CN in 2017; 34% of them were tax foreclosures (compared to 9% in the rest of the county. Of the tax foreclosures in the Choice Neighborhood (13), one was owner-occupied – all others were occupied by renters. Our most vulnerable residents in time of speculative real estate markets are renters. 21 Quotes from residents who participated in a focus group held on June 7 regarding the neighborhood. 73 The adage that community development and neighborhood revitalization may force some from their homes is absolutely true. Is that what we are seeing here? We cannot be sure without visiting each Foreclosures from 2014 to 2017 in CN 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2014 2015 Total 2016 Tax 2017 Mortgage Figure 49. Bexar County 2018 household individually. However, the leadership must remain vigilant about this trend, as rising prices and fixed incomes are a lethal combination. INCREASING the SUPPLY of AFFORDABLE HOUSING: OWNER-OCCUPIED REHAB and INFILL HOUSING PRODUCTION Various estimates have been made of how many land parcels are vacant, how many homes are abandoned, and how many houses are in various states of decay in the Choice Neighborhood. BCAD estimates that 34 of the 2,748 residentially zoned parcels in the neighborhood are vacant land. In 2013, at the beginning of the Choice Neighborhood project, it was estimated that 16% of residential parcels were either vacant and/or dilapidated22; that means 440 residential properties are considered to be either vacant or dilapidated. Using CN dollars allotted through the Critical Community Improvements plan, there are enough CN dollars to either renovate or build 31 properties, which is 1% of those parcels 22 Transformation Plan pg. 43 74 in need of significant investment. Two strategies are in process that are intended to do just that: one, to renovate existing owner-occupied homes, and (two), to build new, affordable housing on vacant parcels. Figure 50. Received from Wheatley Choice Team at Neighborhood Coffee, June 27, 2018 75 Figure 51. 131 Gabriel St. OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME REHABILITATION The neighborhood section of the Choice Neighborhood Transformation Plan includes the goal to “increase home ownership through infill housing and renovation of owner-occupied single family units.”23 The owner-occupied rehabilitation program started as a partnership between SAHA and Merced Housing, a non-profit organization with the mission of providing safe and affordable shelter in order to enhance communities. The purpose of the rehabilitation program is to improve the housing stock in the neighborhood and encourage neighboring residents to invest in their own homes. Homeowners typically invest more time and effort into a neighborhood than renters will. They also create a sense of stability by staying long term and feeling more connected to the neighborhood through ownership. Target areas were developed and Merced identified, contacted, and encouraged 199 pre-qualified owners to apply for the renovation program. The entire program has $920,000 available – enough for about 20 houses (spending approximately $46,000 per house).24 As of the end of May 2018, Merced Housing had received 27 applications, 11 of which failed to qualify. Merced continues to recruit additional houses to the program, and all work must be completed by August 2019. Transformation Plan pg. v 24 Merced Housing 23 76 To qualify for the program, the resident must reside in a single family home, own the home, which must be located in one of the target areas, and the gross annual income of the household cannot exceed 120% of the area median income. The applicant must also provide proof that property taxes are currently being paid or in a payment plan, proof of current mortgage payments, and proof of homeowners insurance. The rehab program has proven to be more difficult to implement than originally expected for several reasons. ● ● ● First, the identification of owner-occupied, qualified houses was hampered by the lack of homestead exemptions (despite owner occupancy) in the target areas (this was documented in 2017); Second, qualified homeowners have been reluctant to respond to the program for two reasons we have been able to identify: the documentation contains college-level, legalistic language25 and thus is difficult to comprehend, and (second) the program may simply be too good to be true. Despite attempts at community meetings, door-to-door introductions, and open houses of recently renovated houses, the response rate continues to be strikingly low. Third, once qualified and accepted into the program, lead paint remediation has proven to be more costly and time intensive than expected. The City of San Antonio was originally responsible for testing and remediation, however, the city reached their budget on the number of homes they could assist and ceased their program beyond households with children less than 6 years old. Remediation typically costs between $6,000 and $19,000 depending on both the location and amount of lead. Now that Merced is responsible for lead testing and remediation, that cost comes out of the $47,407 budget for each home. Merced also tests the soil for lead, and the entire testing process can take between one week and one month to complete. The maximum budget on the exterior of the home is $7,407, leaving the largest portion of money for interior work. 2130 Hays before rehab 25 2130 Hays during the rehab process Original text of all documents was analyzed using readability statistic software available in Microsoft Word. 77 1719 Nolan before rehab 1719 Nolan during the rehab process For many participants, several months go by before the renovations even begin. Obviously, the lack of interest from homeowners has slowed the process down, but those who have had their applications approved wait many months for renovations to begin. Given this analysis, an additional impact of the owner-occupied re-hab program must be noted. Merced Housing was a small, non-profit, affordable housing provider that had some experience in re-hab when this project began. Now they are the leading non-profit provider of re-hab services, and have built the capacity to train others in the field. As the City of San Antonio begins to put public investment into the older housing stock, the newly built capacity of this organization will be invaluable. OWNER-OCCUPIED REHAB: Impact of the Process Four homeowners in the rehab program gave interviews about their experience. Despite the low application rate (13.5% of qualified homeowners responded, of those 16 qualified, 14 joined the program – only 7% of the original applicant pool), those who made it through the qualification, remediation, and rehabilitation phase have been quite pleased with the process, and with Merced Housing. One participant was skeptical about the legitimacy of the program - she learned of it from a sign placed in her yard - but is very happy with the work Merced is doing. She explained that the application process was easy, and when she came across something she did not understand, she simply contacted Merced and one of their staff members went over the document with her. All those interviewed expressed that they had no concerns about the application. However, this sentiment may not be universal, as one resident who did not participate in the program states that they found the documents confusing. Figure 52. Timeline of owner occupied rehabilitation. Received from Merced Housing via email correspondence on July 18, 2018. 78 Some of the residents in the program who have not begun the actual rehabilitation process have concerns about the timeline for the project, which is taking longer than the average 5- or 6-month span Merced anticipates. One of the goals of the owner-occupied rehab program was that targeted investment in houses would encourage neighbors who may not have qualified for the program (usually due to higher income) to invest in their renovation of their own home. While there is little evidence of this sort of spillover yet, asking prices for vacant lots and houses near the rehab projects have gone up significantly. INFILL HOUSING PRODUCTION The infill housing program is the second housing plan in the Critical Community Improvement plan, which was approved in 2016, after two years of negotiation with HUD. When the program was initially proposed, 10 houses were to be built on soon-to-be-purchased vacant land (averaging $13,000). By the time the CCI plan was approved and adopted, vacant lots in the Choice Neighborhood were being listed for over $30,000 and the program was immediately susceptible to problems because private investors were purchasing lots, limiting the number of available lots and driving up prices. As of June 27, 2018 SAHA has 11 lots purchased and designated to the infill program. The average asking price for lots in 2018 is about $32,000, while the average selling price is $13,950, similar to the 2017 average.26 Investors are willing to speculate that future values will rise rapidly, and seem unwilling to sell soon. SAHA’s intent was to give these lots to developers with the capacity and capability of building affordable, single family houses on them. The difficulty in obtaining the lots has delayed this effort. 26 Zillow.com May 31, 2018 79 Figure 53. Bexar County Appraisal District [this is the graph we will add infill lot purchase dates to, with CCI dates.] 80 Figure 54. Zillow.com Regardless, in 2017 about 15 people participated in design charrettes to choose housing styles and composition and to decide what kind of house would fit best and be the most functional in the neighborhood. The residents chose from different options on various aspects of a house, such as the type and material for the roof, fencing, location and material of parking structure, and more. The conclusion page from SAHA’s design plan from the meetings is included, which displays the potential features for the homes. Many of the preferences were due to durability and functionality, such as porches for sitting outside, and light colored roof material to prevent heat. These pages come from SAHA’s New Home Design Guideline from March 2017, which outlines the process of the design charrette and the possible designs based on the resident input. These houses will sell for between $129,000 and $150,000, and future sales will be restricted to keep them affordable for families making up to 80% AMI. 81 Figure 55.. SAHA New Housing Design Guideline. March 2017. As SAHA waited and renegotiated the program with HUD, private developers bought vacant lots and begun building. The houses they are building do not resemble those that the Housing Authority had envisioned. The East Crockett Urban Homes, which stand on lots that were previously vacant, are now listed for $260,000 ($162.50/sqft) – far above the 80% AMI the Housing Authority was targeting.27 In 2012 one vacant lot was appraised for $12,930; by 2018 it was worth $32,080 and the new houses are being constructed. 27 Zillow.com May 31, 2018 82 Appraisal Value of 1753 E Crockett $35,000.00 $30,000.00 $25,000.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $5,000.00 $2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Figure 56. BCAD 2011-2018 appraisal data. Figure 57. East Crockett Urban development 83 The public investments in the Choice Neighborhood are intended to spark private sector investment, which had been nonexistent for the past several decades. And indeed, private investment has begun. However, private investment does not necessarily play by the same rules as public investment, so, for example, while private investors have purchased vacant lots throughout the Choice Neighborhood they have built new housing but at a very different price point. The Housing Authority had intended to buy many of those lots and build affordable housing with covenants to preserve its affordability. Private developers have gone in a different direction, opting instead to build housing similar to that in neighboring Dignowity Hill and Denver Heights. The implications of that remain unclear. It could entice new homeowners into the neighborhood, thus diversifying the income levels; or it could impact the values of surrounding houses and threaten current owners and renters. . Figure 58. East Crockett Urban development. Some residents have noted that many of the new developments are not for sale, but for rent. One resident noted, “It’s too bad that we don’t have people to purchase the property to live here, and pay interest in the community, because rental people they come and go.”28 It is clear that new development is taking place. Residents’ opinions and real estate prices tell us that current neighbors are not likely to move into the newly developed properties. A common sentiment from the residents is that these new developments are not for them. If they were, the properties would have lower listing prices. They frequently ask: “Who are these for? They obviously are not for us!” Current residents cannot even imagine outsiders moving into their neighborhood. These homes appear to target more middle and higher income residents of the city. The neighborhood is in proximity to many desirable 28 Quote from a resident who participated in focus group held June 7, 2018 regarding the neighborhood. 84 locations, such as St. Philip's College, Fort Sam Houston, and access to I-35, the AT&T Center, and downtown. These factors, combined with the addition of these new homes should draw higher income residents to the area. The current real estate market of the CN is changing. While there are many older homes for sale, there are also houses in dire need of repair, as well as newly constructed houses. It appears that there is more influence coming from Dignowity Hill and Denver Heights than East Meadows on the real estate market, however with more time, East Meadows may have a greater impact on the surrounding homes. The combined effects from the new development and surrounding neighborhoods on the people who live in the Choice Neighborhood will be seen in the years to come. The Transformation Plan describes the Housing strategy of the Eastside Choice Neighborhood as “the physical component of the vision created by the residents and the families that live in the Eastside” (TP, 51). It goes on: The transformation of Wheatley Courts and strategic housing initiatives within the surrounding area is the opportunity to reshape a neighborhood by adding value to what exists. All of the evidence that we can possibly accumulate illustrates that indeed, the value of what currently exists is increasing. The vision was created by the residents and families that live in the Eastside (TP, 51), but has the value that has been created gone to them? One of the goals of the original Transformation Plan is to re-stimulate the private housing market so that housing market values would appreciate much like elsewhere in the city. The plan includes the infill and owner occupied rehabilitation programs as strategies for increasing the levels of homeownership in the area. The goal was never for values to rise such that current residents could no longer afford to live there; yet, the goal was for values to rise so resident’s investments in their homes were wealth generating and stabilizing. Instead, it appears that prices of recently developed properties are too high for current residents to afford, which could be a good thing as wealthier families with more disposable income move in. But how will that demand impact those already there? That could be up to us. With careful policy we can ensure that original residents remain if they so wish. MAJOR FINDINGS:  The one to one replacement from Wheatley Courts to East Meadows is complete; 248 affordable housing units in the former Wheatley Courts have been replaced by 295 new affordable units in East Meadows and Sutton Oaks.  List prices in the Choice Neighborhood are far greater than average appraisal values. These prices naturally increase over time, but within the past few years the prices have increased at a greater rate. The sale prices are lagging though, as they are much less than the list prices, possibly signaling investor speculation. 85  The total number of foreclosures have been decreasing over time. However, over the past few years the number of tax foreclosures have been rising. This, along with the increase list prices, may indicate that people are starting to/will be priced out of their homes.  The private sector has begun developing property in the neighborhood. However, judging from their style and price, the homes are not meant for current neighbors.  The Owner Occupied Rehabilitation program has been successful for those whose houses have begun or completed renovations. However some applicants who are still in the application or lead based paint testing/remediation process express some frustration with the slow speed of the process.  The infill housing program has been slow to take off because SAHA had difficulty receiving permission from HUD to purchase lots. In that time, lot prices have increased and some private developers have begun to build on them. 86 NEIGHBORHOOD (the INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT) There are 10,000 households in the Choice Neighborhood, and approximately 125 business (including forprofit, non-profit, and governmental). There are 3 neighborhood schools (although there are more that serve the neighborhood), and over a dozen churches. This is the environment in which individuals and community live and flourish (or fail to thrive). But we do not simply inventory built structures and the quality of those structures; instead, our focus is on the life led in and around them. Do people feel safe? Can they fulfill their needs, or must they travel long distances to do so? Are children well educated? Can people get medical care? This larger institutional environment is the focus of this chapter. A variety of institutions provide these services and fulfill these needs – both through the public, private, and nonprofit sectors. We use the term in a very formal sense here; the institutions we refer to include city government, the school district, health providers, and businesses. The partners examined in this chapter include the City of San Antonio, the San Antonio Independent School District, the business community, and the health district. The original Transformation Plan lists many strategies and goals for the neighborhood (referring to the larger community surrounding East Meadows and Wheatley Park). While they vary in area of focus, all aim to improve residents experience living in the neighborhood, as well as to make the area a more desirable location for both individuals and businesses – a ‘Choice’ neighborhood. The goals and strategies of the plan primarily fall under the categories of community and quality of life, built environment, and economic activity. Category Goals COSA: Foster a sense of community   Improve relationship with SAPD    -East Point/ Transportation & Capital Improvements -San Antonio Police Department Improve sense of personal safety Deter gang activity Strategies      Install public art Neighborhood events and campaigns SAFFE officer program Byrne Grant Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design Match crime rate of CN to that of COSA Increase bus routes Improve WiFi Increase car & bike share programs Gang injunction Transformation Plan Page Pp. v, 43, 44, 45, and 46 87 Increase walkability and connectivity -Neighborhood & Housing Services Repurpose properties unsuitable for housing -Animal Care Services Education Health        Safety zone More green space Sidewalk improvements Increase pedestrian signage Infill housing Establish community gardens COSA Animals Care Services sweeps SNIPSA spay-neuter and foster programs Decrease number of stray animals  Increase educational attainment  Expand selection of youth activities Provide wraparound services for residents  Open health clinic Prioritize neighborhood level retail and services   Pp. v and 43  Economic Activity Improve retail corridors Pp. v, 43, 45, and 46    Business façade program Economic development grants Create incentives for businesses to locate in the area Job training programs Enhance landscaping Screen parking lots Pp. v, 44, 45, and 46 While this table outlines the partners, strategies, and goals involved in the Choice Neighborhood Initiative, we also recognize that there exists a great deal of overlap between different aspects of neighborhood improvement. CHAPTER OUTLINE  The City of San Antonio o The Right to Feel Safe and Secure: Crime and Safety in the Neighborhood  Crime Statistics: Types of Crimes Committed  Crime Statistics: Where Crime is Committed  Crime Perceptions: What Residents Think  Crime Perceptions: What Police Officers Think 88      Crime Perceptions: What Businesses Think COSA: Public Infrastructure o COSA: Organization, the Neighborhood Association, and Representation Non-profit Sector: Health and Education o County Services: Health Care o Education: The Public and Charter School Districts o BiblioTech Economic Development in the Neighborhood o Revitalize Key Retail Areas: The Ability to Fulfill One’s Needs o Physical Improvements to the Neighborhood: Façade Improvements o Leakage and Surplus o Expand and Diversify Economic Activity in the Area: Overall Economic Impact Conclusion o Further Recommendations 89 WSION ST Legend Facade Improvements 0 County Improvements I OwnarOccupiod Rehab 0 Improved StreetsISidowalks The Park at Sutton Oaks - East Meadows Phase II NEW BRAUNFELS 3! hm sm - East Meadow: Phase IV Alamo Community College . Choice Nelghbo: - East Iloadows Phase Public Schools marh.,_ I i5 I 1 7 MARTIN Christine Drennonmany University Mules JUN 2013 90 THE CITY of SAN ANTONIO The role and effectiveness of city services are examined here. The city is almost solely responsible for the formal provision of safety and security in the neighborhood, for the development and upkeep of the public infrastructure, and representation of the neighborhood to all of the services the city provides. All are examined in this section. THE RIGHT TO FEEL SAFE AND SECURE: CRIME AND SAFETY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD The goal for the Choice Neighborhood concerning crime and safety was simple: crime and safety statistics, as well as perceptions, in the Choice Neighborhood should not differ from those of the City of San Antonio. We analyze both in the paragraphs below. Our analysis includes the types of crime committed, where it is committed, and how it is perceived. CRIME STATISTICS: TYPES OF CRIME COMMITTED Choice Neighborhood crime categories include: violent crime, traffic-related crime, property crime, DWI, and other. The “other” category covers a wide range of offenses, including fraud, panhandling, trespassing, and prostitution. The Choice Neighborhood had 2,589 crime incidents in 2017. There was an uptick from 2016 incidents in all crime categories except property, which decreased slightly. Total Crime Incidents Within CN (All Types) 3500 Crime Incidents 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Figure 60. Data from SAPD. 91 Crime Incidents Within Choice Neighborhood 1400 1200 Crime Incidents 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Other Property Violent Drug Traffic DWI Figure 61. Data from SAPD. There appears to be a consistent drop across all crime rates for 2015. Yet upon speaking with an impromptu focus group of local police, this is explained not as the result of new policy, but rather a reluctance of police to engage in the wake of Michael Brown and the national conversation on police brutality. “We were holding ourselves back,” one officer hesitantly admitted, “nobody wanted to be the next headline.” The original goal of the Choice Neighborhood project concerning crime was that crime rates should be no higher than any other neighborhood in the City. Comparing the Uniform Crime Rate (UCR29) of the City and the CN are initially deceiving as they remain higher in the CN overall. The UCR is split into two categories: type 1 and type 2. Type 1 offenses are more serious crimes; this category consists of violent and property crimes covering homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny theft, and vehicle theft. UCR rates are measured per 100,000 residents. 29 92 Crime Rate per 100,000 People UCR1 Crimes - CN vs. COSA 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year CN (rate per 100,000) COSA (rate per 100,000) Figure 62. Data from SAPD. While the overall UCR1 rate for the CN is higher than COSA, the CN has maintained the small gap between the two rates that has occurred since 2015. Violent Crime Within CN 600 Crime Incidents 500 400 300 200 100 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Figure 63. Data from SAPD. 93 As in other years, in 2017 violent crimes made up a much larger portion of total UCR1 crimes for the CN than they do for COSA. The most dramatic change of 2017 took place in the violent crime category, which rose 9.4% from 2016. The 496 violent crimes in 2017 are nearly approaching the levels in 2012 and 2013, up from a low of 372 in 2015. Violent crimes include aggravated robbery, family violence, assault, murder, and more. The increase in violent crimes this year is due in large part to the increase in incidents of deadly conduct, which increased 56% from 2016. 2017 UCR1 for CN 2017 UCR1 for COSA Violent Violent Property Property Figure 64. Data from SAPD. 94 Crime Rate per 100,000 People UCR1 Aggravated Assault Rates - CN vs. COSA 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year CN (rate per 100,000) COSA (rate per 100,000) Figure 65. Data from SAPD. Unfortunately, the rate of violence has been climbing since 2015, and the UCR1 violent crime rate for 2017 hit the highest point in the span of study. This is largely attributable to the rate of aggravated assault, which jumped 40% from the 2016 rate. While concerning, this stark increase in aggravated assault is not necessarily indicative of a decline in safety for the neighborhood. In fact, it is actually reflective of more effective methods of detecting and recording crime. One such tactic is SAPD’s Shotspotter system along New Braunfels, which is capable of detecting the sounds of gunshots that may have otherwise gone unreported. In this respect, the elevated assault rate is partially indicative of more effective methods of policing which can account for crime that was unreported in the previous years. Meanwhile, some aspects of crime are improving in the CN. While property crimes decreased by only 5.7% from 2016 to 2017, this continuation of a downward trend is striking. From 2014 to 2017, property crimes decreased by 34.3%. Crime Rate per 100,000 People One SAFFE officer speculates that recent investments may have contributed to the drop in property crimes. As residents witness positive change in their UCR1 Property Crimes - CN vs. COSA community, they in turn take a 8000 more active role in preserving 7000 their physical environment. 6000 The rate of burglary in 5000 particular has seen a consistent 4000 decline since 2012. One 3000 possible explanation for this 2000 trend is infrastructure improvements that deter 1000 potential burglars by increasing 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 visibility through street Year lighting, and fixing up deteriorating properties that CN (rate per 100,000) COSA (rate per 100,000) may have attracted burglars. Figure 66. Data from SAPD 95 CRIME STATISTICS: WHERE CRIME IS COMMITTED Not only is the quantity of crime committed a concern, so too is the geography of it – where is crime committed, and has that changed over the years as the neighborhood changes? 96 2012 2014 In 2012, the Wheatley Courts public housing complex still stood in the neighborhood, and was frequently a hotspot for crime. The constant hotspot around New Braunfels and Houston street existed then (like now), but extended further into the neighborhood, nearly encompassing Wheatley Courts. Wheatley Courts was demolished in 2014, which accounts for the significant drop in crime in the area immediately surrounding it. 2014 shows the beginning of a pattern discussed by various business owners and residents: crime typically moves rather than decreases altogether. The demolition of Wheatley Courts may have pushed crime further south towards Commerce Street. Additionally, police strategies consisted of targeting specific hotspots for a period of time, which led to the closing of Handy Stop (located at New Braunfels Avenue and Nolan Street). Increased patrolling, including bike and foot patrols, of small areas seems to have moved the crime further south, which is indicative that these police strategies are only temporarily effective. In 2017, the crime around East Meadows rose again, though not to the level of 2012. Though there is crime encroaching from every direction but north, East Meadows appears to have a small buffer zone around it, maintaining lower levels of crime than the surrounding blocks. Overall, 2017 hotspots underlie the perception of crime moving down New Braunfels Avenue; a majority of crimes now take place south of Houston Street, unlike previous years where it was north of it. 97 CRIME PERCEPTIONS: WHAT RESIDENTS THINK Crime statistics give an objective view of crime in the neighborhood, but they do not always capture the overall relationship between residents and crime. Even if total crime incidents stay the same, residents’ perceptions can change dramatically depending on the location and types of crime occurring. This section also covers residents’ perceptions of police. Collective sense of safety determines if, and how, residents choose to engage with one another and their environment. It is imperative that residents feel secure in this respect to maintain lasting, meaningful change. The following graph displays residents’ perceptions of the severity of crime in the neighborhood. Perception of Severity of Crime 100% Percentage of Responses 80% 12 13 90% 30 24 32 25 24 70% 24 60% 50% 31 35 30% 36 40 40% 27 18 24 20% 10% 18 0% 3 18 21 4 7 6 2015 2016 2017 19 7 2 2014 2013 Survey Year Not at all serious Not that serious Serious Somewhat serious Very serious Figure 67. Data from CN survey 2017-2018. In the 2017 survey, fewer residents than any other year answered that crime in the neighborhood is very serious, and more residents answered that crime was either not at all serious or not very serious. The graph below echoes these positive sentiments, as more residents than ever believe that crime has decreased in the past three years, from a low of 13% in 2014 to 28% in this year’s survey. 98 Resident Perceptions of Changes in Level of Crimes 100 Percentage of Responses 90 80 30 27 37 40 35 70 60 50 40 52 54 37 50 37 30 20 10 16 13 2013 2014 21 23 28 2015 2016 2017 0 Survey Year Decreased Stayed the same Increased Figure 68. Data from CN survey 2017-2018. Given the lack of change in the crime incident statistics, this perception of positive change is surprising. This may be due to the decrease in property crimes over the past few years, the UCR1 rate of which is now lower than COSA. While violent crimes like shootings and deaths are typically more immediately salient in residents’ minds, property crimes like theft and vandalism may impact residents’ daily behaviors and perceptions more. Total Responses Do police respect residents? (2017) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response 99 Can police keep you safe? (2017) Total Responses 200 150 100 50 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response Total Responses Can police reduce crime in the neighborhood? (2017) 150 100 50 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response Total Responses Do police care about crime in the neighborhood? (2017) 150 100 50 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response Figure 69. Data from CN survey 2017-2018 refers to all four above graphs. These four survey questions about relations between police and residents all yielded the same trend: responses are positive overall, with an upward trend from almost never to almost always. While this is encouraging, in each question approximately 20-25% of residents answered almost never or rarely; 25% of surveyed residents remain unsatisfied with the police. The survey does not allow an in-depth examination of the source of negative perceptions about police, but the three following survey questions provide some possible explanations: 25% of respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed that police 100 respond to 911 calls quickly. One resident recounted that when her truck was robbed and she caught the perpetrator, police took upwards of an hour to respond to her call. Do police make an effort to get to know residents before a crime occurs? (2017) 160 Total Responses 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response Do police make an effort to get to know youth before a crime occurs? (2017) 140 Total Responses 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Almost never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost always Response Figure 70. Data from CN survey 2017-2018 refers to above two graphs. The only two questions about police without majority positive responses were those asking if police make an effort to get to know residents or youth before a crime occurs. Almost never or rarely made up 50% and 47% of the responses, respectively. The only police officer mentioned by name was Chief William McManus, who had spent time taking pictures and talking with residents on Hays Street. Virtually none 101 of the residents involved in the survey mentioned any knowledge of the SAFFE program, nor the nearby Eastside police substation. Responses concerning community-police relations were overall very mixed. On one end, 56% of residents genuinely think that police keep them safe, and 58% believe they have the potential to lower crime rates in the area. Yet at the same time, when asked about personal relationships with police, very few respondents felt they (or the youth in the neighborhood) had one. While some residents took a minute to consider how police treat residents and how active police are in the neighborhood, others immediately laughed at the questions, as if it were ridiculous to even ask if police care. Overall impressions of police were also mixed; while some residents expressed that there are some good cops and some bad cops, others perceived all police officers as primarily indifferent to their personal problems and the problems in their community. Figure 71. Security cameras in the Choice Neighborhood. CRIME PERCEPTIONS: WHAT POLICE OFFICERS THINK While the section above describes how residents feel about police, here we explore how police feel about the community. Four different occasions were used to collect police officer’s perspective on crime and 102 safety in the Choice Neighborhood: interviews with Captain Torres Eastside Substation Command, a small, impromptu focus group with several patrol officers, and two ride-alongs with SAFFE officers. Both SAFFE officers appear to have a cautiously optimistic view of the neighborhood. They agree that minds are changing, and today’s residents seem eager to overcome the stigma of violence in their communities. However, each officer notes that current policing only serves to shift the geographic location of crime. “It’ll stop when we’re around,” begins officer B, “but as soon as we leave they just start up again.” Additionally, the very public nature of crime in the neighborhood makes otherwise wellmeaning residents hesitant to collaborate with police as they fear retaliation from criminal elements in the community. Officer A speaks highly of East Meadows. The new security measures of the complex, along with good management, have had a positive impact on the neighborhood. He hopes that these positive effects will extend to the entire neighborhood if other residents were inspired to take better care of their houses due to East Meadows’ high quality. Officer A seems to have mixed perceptions about crime levels in the neighborhood; while crime seems to have improved, it is also changing in appearance. Compared to the ‘90s, gangs are less visible, as they do not wear their colors, and gang violence is based more on personal issues than gang lines. Officer B, who more frequently patrols the neighborhood, notes that crime is more sophisticated. He explains that there are certain maneuvers used by gangs in the area to ensure that their leaders remain at large. For instance, when officers stop a group of suspects, someone with no charges might immediately run to force a chase and attract attention away from others in the group that may have criminal charges. Figure 72. SAPD patrol car parked in the Choice Neighborhood. In both ride-alongs, the officers emphasize the physical environment’s relationship with crime. Officer A attributes the improvement of crime and safety around East Meadows to the design of the housing complex: the security gates, the enclosed parking lots, and, perhaps most importantly, the fact that buildings are split up and more accessible than the blocks of apartments at Wheatley Courts. Officer A praises mixed-income housing because he believes that people take advantage of public housing, but when residents pay for the space they live in, they take better care of it. When asked what residents 103 could do to improve the community, Officer A states that they should do “just the simple stuff,” which includes keeping their yards and houses clean, as well as being more involved in the community. Officer C, another SAFFE officer in the neighborhood who we spoke with but did not attend a ride-along with, echoes this sentiment, arguing that the biggest problem in the Choice Neighborhood is the amount of rental houses. Illicit tenants do not have a stake in the property, so they do not maintain upkeep, and if they are removed they can just move to another vacant property. Figure 73. Security gates at East Meadows. An additional challenge to community outreach are misconceptions of race. This issue also arose with the management of East Meadows, as some Hispanic residents feel alienated by the management, who they perceive to be mostly Black. Despite Choice Neighborhood demographics changing to a more diverse, predominantly Hispanic area, the region is still collectively regarded as predominantly Black. In contrast, most of the SAFFE officers in the area are white or Hispanic; only 3 out of 18 SAFFE officers are Black. Officer B believes that this mismatch between who is patrolling and who is perceived to be living in the neighborhood contributes to feelings of suspicion from the residents. Officer A explained that when he joined the force over two decades ago, officers were discouraged from patrolling in the areas they grew up. Though he grew up on the south side, he has patrolled various areas on the Eastside for his entire career. Officer B expands on this saying that living in the same area you patrol makes your family more vulnerable retaliation from the very crime you work to suppress. Officers from the focus group confirm this sentiment with many disclosing that they live outside of city limits for this very reason. 104 While community outreach with certain groups in the neighborhood, namely young kids and churches, is effective, other residents are harder to reach. Schools like Washington Elementary and Tynan Early Childhood Education Center have “adopt-acop” programs to form relationships between officers and neighborhood kids. SAPD also hosted a “Walk a Mile in my Shoes” workshop at St. Philip’s College, which put civilians in scenarios that required them to think about the decisions that officers have to make on a daily basis. Officer A stated that participants in these events were mostly appreciative of SAPD, and Figure 74. Larger dots indicate an area, whereas smaller dots correspond to a specific that SAPD gets involved as address. much as possible with these groups. However, he felt that it would be nearly impossible to reach more adults unless residents were more active in the community, like attending Homeowner Association meetings or monthly residential meetings. Officer B also emphasized the strong police presence at schools: weekly visits, bike rodeos, and chalk drawing contests, but noted that a defensive shift takes place around 5th grade, after which teenagers are significantly harder to connect to. Because of this, SAPD has redoubled their efforts to make early impressions on youth with a continued presence in elementary school programs. Based on survey results that show the majority of neighborhood adults surveyed do not feel that police officers make an effort to get to know youth before a crime occurs, signaling that these in-school activities are not being conveyed from children to parents -- possibly an indication of their effectiveness. The officers had differing opinions on the effect of the national conversation about police brutality and racial bias on their day-to-day work. Officer A felt unaffected for the most part. While police officers 105 have to document their actions more thoroughly now, his attitude was that changes always happen, and new policies are “just one of the things we have to get used to.” As for body cameras, besides the inconvenience of remembering to turn it on and off, Officer A thought they were a positive addition because they provide proof in court. However, Officer B had stronger feelings about the impact of this national conversation. In addition to annoyance with the inconvenience of the body cameras, Officer B felt antagonized by discussions of police brutality, saying that “it hurts our credibility.” While he believed that recordings from body cameras would ultimately prove to the public that police officers are not “racist brutes out to get you,” he still feels that officers are “working under a microscope.” Figure 75. WestCare flier from Neighborhood Coffee meeting. CRIME PERCEPTIONS: WHAT BUSINESSES THINK Interviews with three business owners [including Handy Stop (now known as Nolan Express), a hair salon called My Place, and Walters Food Mart] note that crime had been a concern in the past, but owners perceive a decrease in crime in the previous months. The owner of Handy Stop thought crime had decreased since he took over the business after its previous iteration had been closed by the city. He changed the products the convenience store sold, most notably the drug paraphernalia that had been previously stocked. He believed that different products prompted different customers to come to the store. In addition, the new owner no longer allows people to gather on the property for longer than fifteen minutes. The owner of My Place also believed that a different group of people were in the area and that the group’s influence had helped decrease crime. However, the owner said that crime was still present in the Eastside and was moving further South on New Braunfels. The owner was concerned that crime may come back to this area when people complete their jail sentences. 106 Both the owners of Handy Stop and My Place expressed that they had positive relations with the police. The owner of Handy Stop appreciated the police patrols that he saw, and said that he would call the police if there was any activity on his property. The owner of My Place felt similarly and argued that community members should show SAPD more respect because “they’re just doing their job”. He believes that community members should strive for a mutually respectful relationship with SAPD officers, because SAPD will help people in an emergency. My Place beauty salon located at 611 N New Braunfels Avenue. Walters Food Mart, which is located near East Meadows [EM], also saw improvements. The owner stated that there had not been any major incidents within the past few months (although this store as historically been both a statistical and perceived hotspot of crime activity). There is gang activity in a house across the street from Walters Food Mart, but the owner does not believe that the gang affects business. The owner believed that lower crime rates were a result of the new residents of EM. He described the new residents as “nice people.” He also expressed that he had positive relations with SAPD. 107 Walters Food Mart located at 2106 Burnet Street. Three additional businesses: Smart Stop, Hayes Food Mart, and Tank’s Pizza still experience violent crime. Smart Stop experiences a great deal of night activity. In March, there had been at least two violent crimes on the property. The car wash located across the street from Smart Shop also experiences relatively frequent criminal activity. Smart Stop sold different merchandise from Handy Stop, such as knives and drug paraphernalia. However, it is still unclear as to whether or not products have an effect on the crime that takes place on business property. Smart Stop is still in the midst of the largest neighborhood hotspot, located on N New Braunfels Ave between Houston and Commerce Street. Smart Stop located at 222 N New Braunfels Avenue. 108 Hayes Food Mart also has problems with crime. The clerk stated that he felt relatively safe during daytime, but he would not work a night shift due to safety concerns. He attributes crime to problems in the education system. He believes that children do not have role models besides people who participate in gang activity. He described a cycle that he witnessed for many years: he would see children come in at a young age, get arrested in their late teens or early 20’s, and get released a few years later. However, the clerk did mention that he sees fewer homeless people wandering the area. He attributed this to Haven for Hope, and felt that it had also helped to reduce crime by reducing the number of people gathering on the property. Hayes Food Mart located at 830 N New Braunfels Avenue. The owner of Tank’s Pizza, located across the street from Hayes Food Mart, also commented on the correlation between education and crime. He believes that children mimic the behavior they see. He also believes that the school a child attends affects their likelihood of joining a gang or turning to crime. While SAPD has pointed out that the location has experienced less crime since transforming from a bar into a restaurant, the owner of Tank’s does not have a positive view of the police. He would not trust the police to handle an incident because he feels that SAPD does not have good relations with community members. When asked what he thought contributed to crime in the area, he pointed to education and race. He states that race is a factor in how SAPD treats crime on the Eastside. He says that people have complained about crime in the area for years, but since white people have started moving in, complaints 109 have been addressed more promptly. When asked about EM, the owner thought that the development was an improvement. He believed that EM is a good influence on the community. Tank’s Pizza located at 902 N New Braunfels Avenue. Overall, everyone who mentioned EM spoke very highly of the development. All of the business owners spoke very highly of Will Miles, a member of SAPD’s Community Engagement Program, but had differing opinions on SAPD. There is consensus that crime still exists in the eastside; however, a wide variety of explanations were offered to explain why crime was present in some areas and absent in others. Moving south on New Braunfels Avenue, the clerk and owner of Beacon’s Clothing Store expressed that crime had gotten worse over the past several years. While they do not see much violent crime, they do see a lot of people “hanging out,” often engaging in prostitution or drug dealing. They stated that this loitering and panhandling has been bad for business, as it makes their customers uncomfortable. When asked why crime has not improved lately, the owner felt that police officers are unable to create lasting change; the same people are committing minor crimes, but the police just move them around the neighborhood repeatedly, rather than getting them to stop permanently. This aligns with the events at Handy Stop, now Nolan Express, in 2016. Numerous strategies, including establishing a community garden next door, enforcing code violations, and holding community meetings, all aimed to decrease the high crime level at that spot. Eventually, Handy Stop was shut down by the city, which may have contributed to the shift in crime further south on New Braunfels. Based on interviews, business owners seem to take issue with the police strategy of focusing on one spot heavily until crime moves elsewhere rather than disappears altogether. However, the owner did not believe this issue was entirely the fault of the police. Instead, he blamed business owners for the crime. By not putting up “No Trespassing” signs that allow police to arrest anyone loitering on the property, business owners are “inviting crime.” He also cited the existence of vacant lots and houses as a factor in crime. The owner expressed some frustration with the city, stating that they do “stupid things,” like placing large rocks in a traffic island in front of his store. Approximately five months after the rocks were placed there by the city, multiple rocks were thrown through Beacon’s window. The owner had more familiarity with SAPD than any other store 110 owners; he knew Captain Torres personally and was aware of the presence of the SAFFE officer in the neighborhood. Beacon’s Fine Clothing Store located at 321 N New Braunfels Avenue. An employee at Legion Ink, a tattoo shop on New Braunfels feels that crime has gotten worse in the past five years, especially gang violence and drug issues. While there have not been any major incidents at Legion, there are many homeless people and drug dealers at the nearby gas stations. Unlike the owner of Beacon’s, who had a mostly positive relationship with and perception of the police, the employee at Legion had mixed feelings. While he thought that SAPD is “okay,” he did not appreciate the presence of state troopers in the neighborhood. In general, he thought the neighborhood was over-policed, and that because this neighborhood is poor, “police will find something if they’re looking for it.” Despite an incident two weeks earlier in which SAPD officers searched the shop for a wanted person based on misinformation, the employee still would call the police if there was an incident. This employee had never heard of the SAFFE officer program, but his ignorance of East Meadows, as well as the fact that he does not live in the neighborhood, may indicate that he is not as aware of neighborhood events as others in the community. 111 Legion Ink located at 719 N New Braunfels Avenue. Down New Braunfels, an employee at Greenwoods Bar and Grill (who had worked at there for 10 years) felt that although crime had calmed down a lot in that period, it is still present. Overall, she feels safe working in the neighborhood, not due to police presence, but rather because she has worked in the area for a long time and knows many of the residents. Like the Legion Ink employee, she had mixed feelings about police activity in the neighborhood. While she stated that if there was an incident at the bar, “911 would be my friend,” she was not familiar with the SAFFE program, nor SAPD’s east substation nearby. Additionally, she took issue with the highway patrol focusing on minor traffic violations on the area, which she called “harassment” and believed her customers felt that it was entrapment. Greenwood’s Bar & Grill located at 301 N New Braunfels Avenue. 112 Figure 76. Location of businesses interviewed about crime. Green indicates visits in April, while orange indicates June visits. COSA: PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE In addition to crime and safety, the city is responsible for the investment in new and the maintenance of old public infrastructure in its neighborhoods. This neighborhood, like so many inner-city neighborhoods (especially those that had not been racially restricted early last century) lack the public investment now 113 considered standard in any housing development. At the beginning of this grant the Choice Neighborhood epitomized this condition. Its streets looked like alleys and it lacked sidewalks, drainage, and street lighting. In the past 5 years the City of San Antonio has invested nearly $7,000,000 in streets, lighting, sidewalks, and trees throughout the Choice Neighborhood. In most inner-city neighborhoods, these investments were made when the neighborhood was first platted and developed, and have been maintained since that time. Since this neighborhood never received the initial investment in public infrastructure (and thus never received the regular maintenance of the non-existent resources), $7,000,000 may be a conservative figure compared to what has been invested elsewhere over that period of time. What changes have you noticed? (2017) 160 140 Total Responses 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Street lighting Street paving Curbs Sidewalks Trees Bibliotech Crime changes Response Figure 77. Data from CN survey 2017-2018. Last year we documented the impact of these investments on the daily life of people impacted most directly – those who live on these blocks. While infrastructure improvements – including street lighting, new sidewalks, and curbs were largely concluded in 2016 (and analyzed in the 2017 report), the impact of those improvement continues. When asked what investments people have noticed in the neighborhood, sidewalks and street paving were the most frequent answers, with 148 and 120 mentions, respectively. Street lighting and curbs were the next most popular answers. All physical improvements to streets and sidewalks were mentioned far more often than any other type of investment, including the East Meadows, BiblioTech, trees, and changes in the level of crime. While these changes may appear minor in the grand scheme of the neighborhood, environmental fixes clearly have a notable impact on residents’ daily lives and perceptions of their block. 114 The 2017 crime hotspot map (repeated below) indicates that crime is much lower in the northwestern corner of the neighborhood, where much of the infrastructure improvements have been made. 115 This corner of the neighborhood is especially quiet at night, and seems to have become even quieter with the infrastructural improvements. 116 Throughout the survey, residents expressed concerns over elements of the environment that had received less attention from the city over the course of the initiative. Like sidewalks and street lighting, these elements are less immediately striking than violent crime, yet still have a significant impact on residents’ quality of life and day-to-day safety. Programs to deal with stray animals in the neighborhood were outlined in the Transformation Plan; SAHA proposed to work with COSA Animal Care Services and SNIPSA to decrease the number of stray animals through spay-neuter services and animal sweeps. However, these services have proved to be at best ineffective and at worst nonexistent. Several residents on various streets of the Choice Neighborhood expressed concern over stray dogs roaming around. Additionally, several surveyors observed stray animals firsthand while in the neighborhood. One pair, on three separate occasions, had a loose dog begin barking at them and following them down the street. Children walking to school encounter this on a daily basis. The city has completed periodic sweeps of the neighborhood (including in 2015) that pick up trash, trim trees, and capture stray dogs. However, without any follow-up efforts to educate residents it is difficult for these changes to sustain themselves. Programs that allow sustainable change, such as Trap Neuter Release, have yet to be implemented in the Choice Neighborhood. 117 Another issue that arose repeatedly in the process of surveying residents is the speed at which people drive through the neighborhood. Cars often drive well above the speed limit or ignore stop signs, which makes residents worry about people in the street, especially kids. Many, especially those who live on Hays Street, wish speed bumps would be installed, with some even circulating petitions that ultimately had no effect. The original Transformation Plan called for “traffic calming” efforts (page 46) to slow traffic. These have not been implemented in the residential parts of the neighborhood – where children play. While most residents feel they have a “say in what goes on in their community” (see below), simple requests like speed bumps go unfulfilled. I have a say in what goes on in my community (2017) 300 Total Responses 250 200 150 100 50 0 Disagree Neither Agree Response Figure 78. Data from CN survey 2017-2018. 118 COSA: ORGANIZATION, THE NEIGHBORHOOD ASSOCIATION, AND REPRESENTATION Neighborhood associations and neighborhood leaders are the conduit to the City for most residents. City services are simply too difficult for most of us to navigate and access without a little help. And while the character and constituency of neighborhood associations vary with each locale, one trend arises in many: each prioritizes the interest of an empowered minority, while excluding a larger base population. This is especially evident in the neighboring communities of Dignowity Hill and Harvard-Place Eastlawn who each grapple with divides in capital and race respectively as they pertain to gentrification and neighborhood change. Dignowity Hill is a historically Black neighborhood currently experiencing such a lucrative boom in development that several residents have been offered a check outright for their homes. People there are fully aware that their environment is transforming, and the way they experience a disconnect in leadership is largely determined by where their interests lie in this transformation. This is because the Dignowity Hill neighborhood association is largely comprised of recent transplants to the area -- people who could afford to move, and who seek a financial return in doing so. However, more longtime, local residents actually fear the rising property tax that accompanies development, and share feelings of 119 alienation regarding the neighborhood association. One such resident who resides in a family home she inherited from her grandmother says “it’s not for me, we don’t see ourselves reflected in [the neighborhood association].” Harvard-Place Eastlawn’s divide is between older residents who have long histories in the neighborhood (most of whom are African-American) and a younger, more recent Hispanic population. Association meetings on one Monday a month from 2-4 p.m. suit the needs of its established membership but largely overlook the younger, Hispanic working class who can’t attend. This lack in representation has left much of the Hispanic population here feeling disaffected, as it is difficult to access the very framework meant to support them. Consistent in these observations is the phenomenon of self-appointed leadership. Throughout our research, we encountered individuals or groups that claimed to speak in the interest of the community, without any measurable approval to do so. This posturing is apparently possible, because of the aforementioned ways that the greater community remains removed from its own self-determination. To resolve this disconnect in leadership, we must recommit to the democratic process and devise a means of recruiting community engagement that is entirely convenient for the residents that live there. There also exists a possibility that we must rethink community engagement altogether. Are there other forms of engagement at work in the neighborhood that go unseen because we are immersed in one model, and thus looking for evidence of it? 120 I feel connected to my neighborhood (2017) 100% Percentage of Responses 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Spanish Speakers Neighborhood Survey Group Disagree Neither Agree Figure 79. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018. Respondents to the neighborhood survey were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement “I feel connected to my neighborhood.” Of those who answered in Spanish (approximately 20 out of over 400 surveyed), a higher percentage said they feel connected to the neighborhood than those who answered in English. This overwhelming sense of connection experienced by Spanish-speakers to the neighborhood may be reflective of the CN’s changing demographics. While it has grown more diverse, the actual population of the CN is now predominantly Hispanic, and many of these respondents cited the presence of other Hispanic people as a source of comfort. Despite that, this population remains underrepresented in many of the longstanding cultural institutions of the area, which still largely identify as Black. NON-PROFIT SECTOR: HEALTH and EDUCATION The disinvestment (or even perhaps the complete lack of investment originally) in this neighborhood extends beyond streets and sidewalks and is embedded in access to health and education in the community. A report released by the Bexar County Health Collaborative states that life expectancy in Bexar County varies from 75 years on the city's Eastside to 90-94 years on the far Northwest side. Educational attainment rates vary in the same manner. Community centers, neighborhood schools, and local clinics can be anchors in neighborhoods with historic disinvestment. In education especially, the recent focus has been on moving children to better performing schools, but we support the opposite: moving better performing schools to children who need them. There is little evidence that moving a child 121 to a specific school increases their performance; instead, establishing high-quality and aspirational programming in the community may create opportunity and foster social cohesion to all. COUNTY SERVICE: HEALTH CARE The lack of health care services in and around the Choice Neighborhood was one of the most frequently raised concern of residents over the past six years. In response to public input about the lack of health care services in the Choice Neighborhood, the UT Health Science Center built the Dr. Robert L.M. Hilliard Center Clinic at 919 Locke Street. The clinic is a point of access for health services/treatments, and it also counsels people on medical insurance and payment plans. Despite a need for these services, many residents remain unaware of this facility. In addition to Hilliard being a new amenity in the area, it also only accepts walk-in appointments on Mondays from 10am to 2pm. Throughout this study, word of mouth was observed as the most successful means of promotion, so this slim window presents an obstacle for engagement at Hilliard. The clinic has said that it will not expand walk in hours until a sizeable need is demonstrated. Figure 80. The Doctor L.M. Hilliard Center. 122 Total Responses How has the number of doctors in the neighborhood changed in the past year? (2017) - Neighborhood Only 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Decreased Stayed the same Increased Not sure Response Do you go to the doctor in the neighborhood? (2017) Total Responses 250 200 150 100 50 0 No Yes Response Percentage of Responses How has the number of doctors in the neighborhood changed in the past year? (2017) - Neighborhood vs. EM 100% 80% 29 11 27 60% 33 40% 20% 69 8 15 8 0% Decreased Stayed the same Increased Not sure Response EM Neighborhood Figure 81. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018 refers to above three graphs. 123 East Meadows residents are largely unaware of the new Hilliard Clinic, given around 70% of those surveyed were unsure if the number of doctors in the neighborhood had changed over the past year. This is most likely the culmination of several factors: Hilliard Clinic’s small window of walk-in hours, East Meadows’ general lack of communication, and the relative newness of both facilities. This is not of great concern, as both are expected to integrate into the community over time. EDUCATION: THE PUBLIC AND CHARTER SCHOOL DISTRICTS The Choice Neighborhood is served by both public schools administered through SAISD and charter school belonging to several different charter school districts (including IDEA and KIPP). The Promise Neighborhood initiative was the education partner to the Choice Neighborhood, so our reporting on its impact is limited here, as that grant has ended. The impact on area schools has been ambiguous, and the school district is in the process of reconfiguring both its elementary and middle schools to better serve its students. Percentage of Students Passing 6th Grade Reading Scores for CN Schools 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 74 67 50 Young Men's Leadership Academy Washington Elementary 59 IDEA Eastside IDEA Carver Choice Neighborhood Schools Percentage of Students Passing 6th Grade Math Scores for CN Schools 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 87 83 Young Men's Leadership Academy 71 71 Washington Elementary IDEA Eastside IDEA Carver Choice Neighborhood School Figure 82. Data from CN Survey 2017-2018 refers to above two graphs 124 6th grade math and reading scores from the 2016-2017 school year provide a snapshot comparison between various neighborhood schools. For all schools, math scores are higher than reading. In both math and reading, IDEA Carver leads the pack, with Young Men’s Leadership Academy at Wheatley close behind. IDEA Eastside and Washington Elementary trail, with Washington maintaining the lowest reading scores; just 50% of 6th graders passed the reading exam. The IDEA Carver charter school opened in 2013 and has since rapidly accumulated a student body. Conversely, Washington Elementary, a public school, has observed a steady decline in its total number of Total Students Enrolled - Washington vs. IDEA Carver 600 Total Students 500 400 300 200 100 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year IDEA Carver Washington Elementary Figure 83. Data from Texas Education Agency 2013-2017. students ultimately becoming smaller than Carver. These schools do not serve the same grade levels, so one is not necessarily a function of the other, but the increased number of school choices in the area may impact the traditional neighborhood school population. 125 Economic Disadvantage - Washington vs. IDEA Carver 100.00% Percentage of Students 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Washington Elementary IDEA Carver Figure 84. Data from Texas Education Agency 2013-2017. As the population of IDEA Carver has steadily increased, the overall percentage of economically disadvantaged students has begun to even out. While it sharply increased after the first year, the rate hovers at approximately 85%, nearly 15% lower than Washington Elementary. This is significant, as this may indicate some level of population separation; parents with even slightly more economic capital are moving their children to charter schools with the belief that they will perform better as a result. Meanwhile, those lacking in resources have no other option than to rely on nearby public schools. This is indicative of a greater shift in the role of schools; they are no longer the anchors of community that they once were. The education system has splintered, leading to a sharp divide between those who can access resources outside their immediate environment and those who cannot. BIBLIOTECH BiblioTech East is the local branch of the Bexar BiblioTech digital library system. It opened April 19th, 2018 with the intent to bridge the gaps in literacy and technology in the community by leasing internet access (hot spots, lap tops) and offering training for various devices. However, due to its very recent opening and lack of promotion, it has yet to be fully integrated into the community. Each of the focus groups conducted in the course of this research were held in the Toyota Community Room of BiblioTech East, and each time respondents had mixed levels of awareness of the facility. These focus groups also doubled as an observation of the facility itself; despite its many resources for adults and families, BiblioTech is predominantly frequented by children and young adults. At each visit, we observed a significant group of youth congregating in BiblioTech’s game room, whereas only a handful of adults 126 were present in the computer lab. In this sense, BiblioTech successfully addresses a concern frequently shared by adults in previous years -- it presents a productive option for youth with free time. Figure 85. The BiblioTech, located on Walters Street. PRIVATE SECTOR: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD The economic development strategies of the Choice Neighborhood Initiative were developed to achieve two main goals: ● ● “revitalize key retail areas,” including physical revitalization through façade improvements (TP, 46) “expand and diversify economic activities” (TP, 46). These two key areas -- retail and overall business activity -- help us gauge two separate, yet interrelated, economic indicators: the ability to fulfill one’s needs in the area, and the overall economic activity in the area. This section is divided into these complementary parts. REVITALIZE KEY RETAIL AREAS: THE ABILITY TO FULFILL ONE’S NEEDS in the NEIGHBORHOOD The first major goal of the Choice Neighborhood Transformation Plan was to “revitalize key retail areas” (TP, 46.) At the beginning of the project in 2014, 14.5% of neighborhood residents who responded to the 127 My neighborhood helps me fulfill my needs 100 90 80 30 28 39 45 59 Percentage 70 23 60 50 33 13 30 20 20 34 40 49 37 35 27 10 28 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Disagree Neither Agree Figure 86. “Please rate how strongly you agree or disagree: my neighborhood helps me fulfill my needs.” CN ad EPN Surveys 2013-2017. Eastside Promise Neighborhood (EPN) survey felt that they could not satisfy some of their most basic needs within the neighborhood – needs such as groceries, doctor’s visits, clothes, and car repairs. Each year more residents agree that they can fulfill their needs in the neighborhood. Additionally, the number of residents who feel that they cannot fulfill their needs in the neighborhood has decreased from 36.1% in 2013 to 27.3% in 2018. The amount of residents who feel they can fulfill their needs within the neighborhood has steadily increased since 2014, now at a high of about 60%. While it is ideal to be able to satisfy one’s most basic needs close to home, few would anticipate satisfying all higher level needs in one’s immediate vicinity. In fact, theory predicts that we must travel further and further to fulfill higher and higher order needs (from buying milk and cereal to clothes to a new car). While more residents believe that the Choice Neighborhood allows them to fulfill many of their most basic needs, higher order needs must still be fulfilled outside the neighborhood. The CN Survey conducted in June 2018 asked residents about a variety of needs. The survey included questions about higher-end goods that people need less frequently, such as a doctor, a bank, and clothing 128 stores. It also inquired about everyday needs, including if people work, get their cars fixed, go out to eat, use check cashing places, and buy groceries in the neighborhood. Do you go to the … in this neighborhood? No Sometimes Yes Doctor 51% 5% 44% Bank 44% 7% 49% Clothing 43% 14% 43% Work 65% 4% 31% Car Fixed 43% 11% 45% Restaurants 24% 17% 59% Check-Cashing 49% 10% 41% Groceries 12% 10% 78% 129 2017 Retail Specific Needs 300 Total Responses 250 200 150 100 50 0 Almost Never Rarely Sometimes Often Almost Always Response Groceries Dining Out Car Fixed Figure 87. Data from CN survey 2017-2018. Many of the residents considered the H-E-B on New Braunfels Avenue to be a part of their neighborhood, so it makes sense that such a great proportion of residents said that they can buy their groceries in their neighborhood. Overall, more people tend to go to restaurants in the neighborhood than leave to dine out. This may be a result of the facade improvements done to some of the local restaurants. A majority of the residents do not rely on the neighborhood if their car is broken; residents expressed that they or their family members fix their car, not any local dealer or business. Resident perceptions from the neighborhood survey reflect retail trends, as ESRI-Business Analyst Online data indicates that there are increased numbers of food services and drinking places and general merchandise stores. Number of Choice Neighborhood Retail Establishments (2012-2017): 30 Retail Industry Group: 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers30 3 2 4 5 5 Furniture and Home Furnishings 1 0 0 0 0 Electronics and Appliance Stores 0 0 1 1 0 Bolded type indicates retail industry groups that were asked about in the 2017 CN survey. 130 Building Materials, Garden Materials and supply 3 2 2 3 2 Food and Beverage Stores 7 8 6 5 5 Health and Personal Care Stores 2 1 2 2 2 Gasoline Stations 1 1 3 5 3 Clothing and Clothing Accessory Stores 4 4 0 0 0 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores 1 1 0 2 1 General Merchandise Stores 0 0 2 2 2 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 8 1 0 0 0 Non-store Retailers 4 4 0 1 1 Food Services and Drinking Places 7 8 15 14 13 The increase in those sectors could explain why 77% of residents do their grocery shopping in the neighborhood and 58% of residents go out to eat in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, the number of clothing stores and building materials stores has decreased. This could explain why only 42% of residents rely on their neighborhood to buy clothes. 131 Figure 88. Data from ESRI Business Analyst 2012-2017. REVITALIZE KEY RETAIL AREAS: FAÇADE IMPROVEMENTS Residents and police have speculated that the improved appearance of East Meadows has contributed to the overall positive change in the area. Similarly, an improved business storefront is more likely to attract commerce and improve residents’ perception of the amenities available to them. One of the original strategies proposed in the Transformation Plan was a business façade improvement program, which enables small businesses to beautify their outside appearance, hoping that business might improve as a function of the upgrades. Over the past two years, 12 façade improvement grants have been awarded to area businesses. Of the 7 businesses that received facade improvement grants in 2017, 6 were interviewed. This program is led by San Antonio for Growth on the Eastside (SAGE), an economic development organization that provides funding and support to businesses in the area. Through the Choice Façade Improvement Grant, SAGE provides local businesses grants of up to $25,000 for storefront improvements. 132 All the business owners spoke positively about the façade improvement program. Most business owners had no complaints about the application process. Some owners described the process as “seamless” or “simple.” Spotlight: Teresita’s Mexican Restaurant Location: 901 N. New Braunfels Project Description: exterior walls, new windows, exterior painting, lighting, and signage May 2014 June 2018 Teresita’s has been open for the past 17 years. After nine months of renovations, the restaurant reopened almost a year ago. Mrs. Lopez, Teresita’s owner, notes that while she has not seen a drastic increase in sales, she sees a difference in her clientele. More families visit the restaurant, as opposed to lone men. She also notices more Americanos, white people, visiting the restaurant. Mrs. Lopez still sees many of her regulars. Her regulars typically drive in from outside the neighborhood. However, she feels the neighborhood seems more animated, and people However, some business owners werethat reluctant to turn over financial information to SAGE. Straight Line Management, a company which started outneighborhood, as a contractorsuch for the façade improvements, claimed that approve of the shifts taking place in the as residents improving their yards and some of the companies they helped were skeptical about sharing financial information. The owner of houses. Rich Financial, Ltd on Lamar claimed that the application process could not have been much easier, but that he would have preferred that “[SAGE] take [his] word for it” when it came to finances. A few businesses expressed that they had problems finding a contractor that would work with them. This could be a result of the city-wide labor shortage that COSA experienced after Hurricane Harvey. For future SAGE projects, it may helpful to supply business owners with a list of recommended contractors, preferably from the area. 133 “We grow together by creating jobs”: Alamo Inn Motel Location: 2203 E. Commerce Project Description: Pavers, landscape, lighting, fencing, and stucco Alamo Inn Motel invokes thoughts of its namesake with pictures of the Alamo on the walls and at the front desk. Mr. Vazir, the owner, feels the improvements were, “a big help”. He is very proud of his business and says he would not be surprised if a large corporation tries to buy the motel. “You’ll have to come back next year,” he says smiling, as he shows photos of his plans for future renovations. Plans include a two-story expansion into an empty lot next to his current property. May 2018 Alamo Inn Motel currently has 6 employees, all from the local neighborhood. After his renovations are complete, Mr. Vazir plans to employ 20 people. “We grow together by creating jobs,” he remarks. The clientele is roughly half out-of-town visitors and half locals. As the hotel provides easy access to downtown and the AT&T Center, many customers stay at the motel for events in town. In addition to the central location, his customers are also drawn in due to how quiet the area is. As Mr. Vazir put it, “help is coming.” He notices a decrease in crime and an overall improvement in the neighborhood. He noted that neighbors have started improving their businesses since his improvements. That is, the appearance of his business has had a positive impact on businesses around him. 134 Mr. Vazir did have some difficulties with the application, saying it was time-consuming and getting bids was a challenge. He chose contractors that he knew, but could see issues if someone did not already have those connections. Some businesses have regular clientele, while other businesses primarily function as office spaces. Businesses with clients who physically patronize the location saw a notable increase in clientele, which they attributed mostly to the façade improvements. The businesses that serve as an office space spoke of the compliments they were getting rather than a shift in clientele. “When people feel safer, they buy more”: Malik’s Food Mart Location: 913 N. Mittman Project Description: handicap ramp, bike stall, landscaping, parking lot, roof, and AC (follow up from 2016) Mr. Gharib, the owner of Malik’s, remains highly complementary of the project. He believes that the façade improvements are more than “just a face lift”; rather, the city is truly trying to help businesses. He claims that San Antonio has supportive leadership, claiming that everyone working for the city “from the mayor down” is invested in the project. Because of this support, he feels the application process is painless. He notes that the area has improved since the implementation of the CNI. He also believes that the value of the whole area is increasing at a steady rate. He said that the area is much quieter, which has helped his business. “When people feel safer, they buy more,” he explains. He has seen an increase in sales, which allows him to continue putting money back into his store. He has replaced the flooring, upgraded the air conditioning, and plans to provide food in a deli in the back of his store. He will also add a couple of employees to work as cooks and servers. In the long run, he plans to add catering and delivery. The main problem facing Mr. Gharib is finding contractors, which could be a result of the labor shortage following Hurricane Harvey. May 2018 July 2014 135 Businesses with clientele mostly found that there was an increase in the number of customers and in the frequency of their visits. A few business owners with locations near East Meadows suggested that the new complex had brought new people to the area, who now frequent their businesses. Several owners felt that business was doing better because the area was safer. Business owners feel that the area is improving. Many observed that people are fixing up their houses and yards. Some of them felt that neighborhood improvements were a direct result of their property improvements. Others felt that East Meadows had spurred a wave of development in the area. Overall, business owners are optimistic about the future of the neighborhood. EXPAND and DIVERSIFY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: LEAKAGE and SURPLUS ESRI’s retail leakage study indicates whether people are spending their money in or out of the neighborhood. Leakage implies that residents leave the neighborhood to fulfill their needs for that sector, while surplus implies that residents stay in the neighborhood to fulfill needs. The neighborhood has a surplus of ● auto parts, accessories, and tire stores ● health and personal care stores, ● gas stations, ● drinking places, ● and restaurants/other eating places. All other categories, including general merchandise stores, clothing stores, and grocery stores see a leakage out of the neighborhood. 136 Figure 89. ESRI-Business Analyst Online 2018. Green bars indicate surplus while red indicate leakage. Figure 90. ESRI-Business Analyst Online 2018. Green bars indicate surplus while red indicate leakage. 137 The leakage and surplus analysis differs from results of the survey in that it is limited to a particular geographic space, whereas each resident has a subjective impression of the confines of their neighborhood. Therefore, several false impressions present themselves in comparing the results. While the data shows a leakage of grocery and clothing stores, it is worth noting that the H-E-B located along New Braunfels Avenue is not included in the data because it extends beyond the boundary of the Choice Neighborhood. Still, many residents consider it to be a part of the neighborhood, so this could give a false impression of the sector. Similarly, several clothing stores are located on the west side of New Braunfels. They are also not included in the data, so the data could also give a false impression of that sector. While people may still leave the neighborhood to fulfill daily needs, are they doing it more or less than in previous years? When comparing leakage from 2017 to leakage in 2014, some sectors of the retail economy have grown, including health and personal care stores and gasoline stations. Retail Sector 2014 Retail Potential 2014 Retail Sales 2014 Gap 2017 Retail Potential 2017 Retail Sales 2017 Gap Change in Gap Building Materials $805,351 $2,098,080 $1,292,729 $2,686,190 $2,516,658 -$170,532 -$1,463,261 Food and Beverages $5,383,520 $2,107,909 -$3,275,611 $8,900,948 $3,351,894 -$5,549,054 -$2,273,443 Health and Personal Care $21,500,787 $2,642,698 -$18,858,089 $2,773,905 $9,599,420 $6,825,515 $25,683,604 Gasoline Stations $3,032,801 $555,195 -$2,477,606 $4,971,743 $20,497,776 $15,526,033 $18,003,639 General Merchandise Stores $5,213,847 $5,213,847 $0 $8,244,594 $1,847,122 -$6,397,472 -$6,397,472 Figure 91. ESRI Business Analyst 2014-2017. In the chart above, a value of ‘0’ would indicate that there is no surplus or leakage present. A negative value indicates that people leave the neighborhood to spend money. A positive value means that they are spending money in the neighborhood. A negative value in the far right column indicates that there is a greater negative correlation than there was in 2014. Both gasoline stations and health and personal care once experienced leakage; now, both sectors experience a surplus. Every other sector in the chart sees more leakage than they did in 2014. EXPAND AND DIVERSIFY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE AREA: OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACT 138 The second economic goal of the Choice Neighborhood Initiative was to expand and diversify economic activities to match those of Bexar County. At the beginning of the project, CN businesses were not parallel with Bexar County Businesses. Choice Neighborhood and Bexar County Business Comparison 2017 31 NAICS Category CNI Businesses CNI Percent Bexar Businesses Bexar Percent Percent difference Construction 8 4.6% 3,818 7.3% -2.7% Manufacturing 5 2.9% 1,535 2.9% 0% Wholesale Trade 4 2.3% 1,869 3.6% -1.3% Retail Trade 20 11.4% 7,829 15.0% -3.6% Transportation and Warehousing 3 1.7% 824 1.6% 0.1% Finance and Insurance 8 4.6% 3,261 6.2% -1.6% Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 10 5.7% 3,623 6.9% -1.2% Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 9 5.1% 4,983 9.5% -4.4% Administrative Support & Waste Management & Remediation 4 2.3% 2,013 3.9% -1.6% Educational Services 7 4.0% 1,438 2.8% 1.2% Some business sectors appear in Bexar County but not in the Choice Neighborhood, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, as well as mining, utilities, information, and management of companies and enterprises. Data from ESRI Business Analyst 2017. 31 139 Health Care & Social Assistance 11 6.3% 4,841 9.3% -3% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 5 2.9% 859 1.6% 1.3% Accommodatio 15 n & Food Services 8.6% 4,556 8.7% -0.1% Other Services 59 33.7% 6,174 11.8% 21.9% Public Administration 5 2.9% 816 1.6% 1.3% Unclassified Establishments 4 2.3% 2,337 4.5% -2.2% Overall, the breakdown of businesses in the Choice Neighborhood is similar to how it was at the start of the grant. The neighborhood continues to see an excess of “Other Services.” This category may include culturally significant churches which draw patronage from across the city, as well as home businesses such as auto mechanics, or beauty services. Also noteworthy, the “Arts and Entertainment” industry continues to see a surplus from last year. If this surplus was a redundancy, businesses would have closed. As “Arts and Entertainment” businesses have remained open, this could lead to a specialization for the area. Choice Neighborhood’s most underdeveloped sector, “Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services,” may be stimulated by the recent addition of the BiblioTech, which aims to bridge the gap in digital literacy between Choice Neighborhood residents and the rest of the county. 140 Figure 92. ESRI-Business Analyst Online 2018. Figure 93. ESRI-Business Analyst Online 2018. It sounds like a contradiction: the number of businesses has remained the same, but more people feel they can fulfill their daily needs in the neighborhood than ever before. We operate based on our perceptions of reality, not on reality itself. To that end, improved business façades have in turn shaped 141 the perception that the neighborhood itself is improving, that people can satisfy many of their needs there, that they feel safer and more confident, and are optimistic about the future. CONCLUSION When we compare life in the neighborhood in 2018 to life in the neighborhood as described in the original Transformation Plan, the outcomes of many of the original strategies vary, as do the discrepancies between residents’ perceptions of improvements and their objective progress. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● One of the most highly noticed changes in the neighborhood was the improvement of sidewalks. These changes are small yet significant due to their impact on residents’ daily life. Services for residents have also been expanded, most notably in the form of the Hilliard Health Clinic and BibilioTech that recently opened. For crime and safety, some goals lag. Property crime has declined in the past few years, but the overall crime level has not declined significantly since the beginning of the project. The stray animal initiative has gone largely unfulfilled, with residents still noting the high number of stray dogs roaming about the neighborhood. Issues with relations between police and residents persist; a majority of the neighborhood feels that police officers do not make an effort to get to know residents, and few are familiar with the SAFFE program. More residents feel they can fulfill more of their needs in the neighborhood rather than meeting them elsewhere. Additionally, local business owners, due in part to the facade improvement grants, have a more optimistic view of the future, both for the economy and the overall neighborhood. However, in the economic sector, there has not been much progress in diversifying the businesses in the neighborhood. Local leadership and representation have failed to strengthen in the past five years. The neighborhood association meets, but does not represent the entire neighborhood, and many leaders seem self-appointed, and have not been able to garner the true support they need to be effective. MAJOR FINDINGS    While the overall number of crime incidents has gone up slightly, property crime has decreased, and residents perceive that crime has gone down overall. Relations between police officers and residents still need work, as many residents are unaware of policing programs, and most residents do not think police officers make an effort to get to know residents. Residents’ perceptions of the economic sector, including their ability to fulfill their needs within the neighborhood, have improved despite the lack of change in leakage or number of stores, possibly due to facade improvements 142   Improvements in infrastructure maintain a significant role in residents’ perceptions of the neighborhood; sidewalks and lighting are cited as evidence of the neighborhood improving, yet the lack of additions like speed bumps and stop signs negatively affect residents’ feelings of efficacy. Residents generally remain alienated from the process of decision-making for the region. While many feel they have some say in their neighborhood, this awareness is largely limited to the block they live on and many remain disaffected with neighborhood associations that could more formally meet their needs. FURTHER RECOMMENDATIONS While strengthening feelings of connection and efficacy in a rapidly changing community is a difficult task, there are small steps that can be taken to start the process. As comments about street lighting and sidewalks have shown, small changes to residents’ immediate environment can deeply affect their quality of life and overall perception of the neighborhood. Thus, the city should focus on the minor issues residents have been trying to bring attention to for months or even years. Adding speed bumps or stop signs to streets, especially those with lots of families and children, is a relatively quick and easy way to make residents feel that their neighborhood is safer and their voices are being heard. A simple method of collecting and consolidating these concerns lies in revamping our organization of neighborhood associations. Neighborhood associations are already a conduit to the city for residents, so centralizing their role in reform of the Choice Neighborhood can save resources and prove to be mutually beneficial for residents and the city alike. With leadership from city council, these associations can become more democratic hubs of engagement that capably reflect the full dimension of their communities. Throughout our survey, many residents expressed feelings of alienation in regard to their neighborhood association but maintained that they felt they had some control or connection to the area- namely the blocks they live on. As such, one method of utilizing the social ties of neighbors, and mending their disaffection with the associations themselves, could be the creation of “Block Captains” who report to their respective associations as a representative for their street. A Captain for each block, and a remote means of collecting input (postcards, or digital comments) can create more inclusive associations that address the needs of all of their residents. This formalizes preexisting relationships with preexisting structures, and creates a framework that can be utilized by city leaders to more accurately diagnose and treat issues within a given community. Such a reorganization can more adequately address crime also as residents will now be further integrated into policing models of the neighborhood. While SAFFE officers are present at each neighborhood association meeting, most residents are unaware of the program – much less able to name a specific officer. The creation of “block captains” could provide police with a lucrative means of engagement with more adult populations again, supplementing efforts to reach kids. The insight gained from such relationships can be utilized to address specific concerns residents have and foster the community’s trust in police. Most importantly, such a framework provides a constructive outlet for active residents that already have leadership in their communities; everyone can benefit from their self-determination. The purpose of this report is and has always been to provide a platform to the voices of residents, and, despite the slow changes recorded in the data, it must be noted that minds are changing. People here are becoming more open, and proud in a manner that data cannot fully convey and East Meadows shows 143 glimpses of promise in accomplishing its original mission to become a neighborhood of choice. Thus the overall success of neighborhood strategies is hard to gauge. While some strategies have been less than successful and some goals remain unfulfilled, many residents see great change and promise. Survey results show increasing optimism over the years, with more residents than ever now believing that the neighborhood has improved in the past three years and will improve in the next few as well. 144 MAJOR FINDINGS: People:          15% of original Wheatley Courts households have returned to live in East Meadows and Wheatley Park Senior Living; 44% of the original Wheatley Courts residents remain in case management with Urban Strategies; When residents chose a place to live in 2014 they did so quickly and many moved a second and third time. When residents chose to return (or not) to East Meadows, they deliberated and weighed the pluses and minuses of another move – indicating a new sense of agency over one’s life; o For many low-income families, decisions concerning daily life are made by the state (government officials, social workers, and politicians). When Wheatley Courts was demolished, limited time and options often compelled residents into an unsuccessful first move. Conversely, the decision to move back to EM has been deliberate. Whether or not residents remain in EM for a significant period of time will indicate whether increased agency truly affects quality of life. Median household income of former WCR has remained fairly stagnant, although the mean has increased appreciably, indicating some families are doing significantly better than others; o Population-level evidence indicates that some families have increased their income considerably. Analysis of individual-level data would allow researchers to identify the most effective strategies that impacted these families. Few residents are aware of the mixed-income nature of East Meadows; o Mixed-income housing has been proposed as a strategy to combat entrenched poverty. Yet without the exchange of social, political, and cultural capital, the model will fail. Individuals at East Meadows express optimism about their future, although they have met very few people at East Meadows – people prefer to “keep to themselves”; o East Meadows residents feel quite optimistic about the state of their lives today; the novelty of East Meadows may still influence that state. With time, as the newness wears off, a healthy community may fill that lacunae. Individuals at Wheatley Park have formed communities and socialize frequently; Those living in the Choice Neighborhood express increasing optimism about their community; African-American families have been in the neighborhood much longer, and know more people there, yet have lower rates of home ownership; o Spanish-speaking families feel higher rates of community involvement than other families in the Choice Neighborhood – indicating that a community may be forming among them, or that a different understanding of community is at work. Housing:   The one to one replacement from Wheatley Courts to East Meadows is complete; 235 new affordable units have been built, (including those available at the Park at Sutton Oaks); 117 more will be added by 2020; Appraisal values in the Choice Neighborhood rose 68%; list prices rose 107% and sales prices rose 16%. 145 o     While the neighborhood remains affordable today, the surrounding neighborhoods are increasingly more expensive and exclusive. Short of controlling the real estate market, other tools, such as subsidized renovation and careful monitoring of the demolition process may deter rising real estate prices and an investor-driven market. Tax foreclosures in the CN are 34% (in Bexar County they are 9%), possibly indicating an early phase of displacement due to rising property values; Private sector developers built numerous houses in 2017-2018, with asking prices much higher than older houses in the neighborhood; The infill housing program intended to build affordable housing for sale to owner-occupiers has yet to begin due to a delayed start date (and increasing land values); o Merced Housing has developed the capacity to undertake significant house renovation projects due to this partnership. As COSA enters the rehab business, this new capacity may now guide new partners in the housing rehab business. The Owner Occupied Rehabilitation program has been successful for those whose houses have begun or completed renovations. However some applicants who are still in the application or lead based paint testing/remediation process express some frustration with the slow speed of the process. Neighborhood:      While the overall number of crime incidents has gone up slightly, property crime has decreased, and residents perceive that crime has gone down overall; Relations between police officers and residents remain tense; many residents are unaware of policing programs, and most residents do not think police officers make an effort to get to know residents; o Yet residents perceive that crime has decreased and security has increased in the neighborhood. Residents’ perceptions of the economic sector, including their ability to fulfill their needs within the neighborhood, have improved despite the lack of change in leakage or number of stores, possibly due to facade improvements; Improvements in infrastructure play a significant (positive) role in residents’ perceptions of the neighborhood; sidewalks and lighting are cited as evidence of the neighborhood improving, yet the lack of additions like speed bumps and stop signs negatively affect residents’ feelings of efficacy; o Future projects should begin with these infrastructural improvements rather than delaying them to the latter years of the project. Residents generally remain alienated from the process of decision-making for the region. While many feel they have some say in their neighborhood, this awareness is largely limited to the block they live on and many remain disaffected with neighborhood associations that could more formally meet their needs. 146