SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire FINAL_NH JANUARY 2020 Region: (N=500) n West/North Central Hillsborough Rockingham % 127 --------25.40 133 --------26.60 125 --------25.00 115 --------23.00 ***************************************************************************************************************************************************** INTRO SECTION> Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and the Boston Globe and I would like to get your opinions on some questions about the upcoming Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some brief questions? (quota) A. Are you a resident of New Hampshire? (N=500) n Yes 1. 500-------100.00 Gender (N=500) n Male Female 2. % % 218 --------43.60 282 --------56.40 Thinking about the Democratic Primary for President coming up in four weeks, how likely are you to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary – would you say you are very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely to vote in the Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Very likely 446 --------89.20 Somewhat likely ---------------------------------------------------54 --------10.80 3. Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, or Undeclared/Independent? Or are you not registered to vote yet? (N=500) n % Democrat 287 --------57.40 Republican 0 ----------0.00 Undeclared/Independent ---------------------------------------210 --------42.00 Not registered yet ---------------------------------------------------1 ----------0.20 Refused 2 ----------0.40 4. Do you plan to vote at the polls on primary election day, do you plan to vote by absentee ballot before the primary, or have you already voted by absentee ballot? (N=500) n % At polls on primary election day ------------------------------435 --------87.00 Will vote absentee ballot -----------------------------------------48 ----------9.60 Already voted absentee ballot -----------------------------------7 ----------1.40 Undecided 9 ----------1.80 Refused 1 ----------0.20 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 1 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe 5. New Hampshire What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-25 Years 26-35 Years 36-45 Years 46-55 Years 56-65 Years 66-75 Years Over 75 Years Refused 6. % 43 ----------8.60 78 --------15.60 97 --------19.40 95 --------19.00 79 --------15.80 70 --------14.00 36 ----------7.20 2 ----------0.40 Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? (N=500) n % White/Caucasian -------------------------------------------------442 --------88.40 Black/African-American --------------------------------------------8 ----------1.60 American Indian/Alaska Native ----------------------------------3 ----------0.60 Asian 3 ----------0.60 Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander ------------------------1 ----------0.20 Hispanic/Latino 16 ----------3.20 Other 15 ----------3.00 Refused 12 ----------2.40 7. I’m going to read you a list of the major active candidates who are certified on the New Hampshire Democratic ballot for president. Please tell me who you would vote for or lean toward at this point. If you know who you would vote for, feel free to stop me at any time. {ROTATE} (N=500) n % Michael Bennet 7 ----------1.40 Joe Biden 74 --------14.80 Pete Buttigieg 61 --------12.20 John Delaney 0 ----------0.00 Tulsi Gabbard 27 ----------5.40 Amy Klobuchar 23 ----------4.60 Deval Patrick 3 ----------0.60 Bernie Sanders 82 --------16.40 Tom Steyer 13 ----------2.60 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------49 ----------9.80 Andrew Yang 28 ----------5.60 Other 6 ----------1.20 Undecided 119 --------23.80 Refused 8 ----------1.60 {FOR 7.1 - 7.14} 8. Thinking about your first choice, is your mind firmly made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? (N=373) n % Mind made up 189 --------50.67 Might change mind before the primary ---------------------177 --------47.45 Undecided 7 ----------1.88 Refused 0 ----------0.00 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 2 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire {FOR 7.1 - 7.14} {Exclude answer from Q7.1 – 7.14 as an option, respondents must pick another candidate} 9. Who would be your second choice? (N=373) n % Michael Bennet 12 ----------3.22 Joe Biden 39 --------10.46 Pete Buttigieg 55 --------14.75 John Delaney 5 ----------1.34 Tulsi Gabbard 16 ----------4.29 Amy Klobuchar 26 ----------6.97 Deval Patrick 2 ----------0.54 Bernie Sanders 46 --------12.33 Tom Steyer 32 ----------8.58 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------51 --------13.67 Andrew Yang 16 ----------4.29 Other 9 ----------2.41 Undecided 49 --------13.14 Refused 15 ----------4.02 10. What would you say is the most important issue facing the country? (RANDOMIZE AND READ LIST) (N=500) n % Healthcare 94 --------18.80 The economy 60 --------12.00 Income inequality --------------------------------------------------29 ----------5.80 Immigration 34 ----------6.80 Trade policy 6 ----------1.20 National security ---------------------------------------------------19 ----------3.80 Climate change 100 --------20.00 Foreign policy 26 ----------5.20 Convict Donald Trump in the Senate impeachment trial ----------------------------------------------------------------------81-------------------------------------------------------------------16.20 Other 34 ----------6.80 Undecided 15 ----------3.00 Refused 2 ----------0.40 - 11. On issues that matter to you, who do you think is more progressive, (ROTATE) Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders? (N=500) n % Elizabeth Warren ----------------------------------------------------------------------94-------------------------------------------------------------------18.80 Bernie Sanders -------------------------------------------------------267 -----------------------------------------------------------------53.40 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 3 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Undecided -------------------------------------------------------------135 -----------------------------------------------------------------27.00 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------4 --------------------------------------------------------------------0.80 {FOR 7.1 - 7.12} 12. Earlier you selected {INSERT} as your first choice to be the Democratic nominee. If the Democratic party doesn’t nominate {INSERT}, will you vote for the eventual Democratic nominee, President Trump, a third party candidate, or will you skip voting in November? (N=373) n % Democratic nominee --------------------------------------------270 --------72.39 President Trump ---------------------------------------------------37 ----------9.92 Third party candidate ---------------------------------------------25 ----------6.70 Skip voting in November -----------------------------------------14 ----------3.75 Undecided 26 ----------6.97 Refused 1 ----------0.27 13. Have you attended an event for one or more of the candidates for president – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 14. 146 --------29.20 351 --------70.20 3 ----------0.60 0 ----------0.00 Have you heard from any of the campaigns directly – yes or no? (N=500) n Yes No Undecided Refused % 349 --------69.80 146 --------29.20 5 ----------1.00 0 ----------0.00 {IF YES, 14.1} 15. Which campaigns specifically? {ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES} (N=349) n % Michael Bennet ----------------------------------------------------------------------38-------------------------------------------------------------------10.89 Joe Biden --------------------------------------------------------------125 -----------------------------------------------------------------35.82 Pete Buttigieg ---------------------------------------------------------125 -----------------------------------------------------------------35.82 John Delaney ----------------------------------------------------------------------26-------------------------------------------------------------------7.45 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 4 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Tulsi Gabbard ----------------------------------------------------------------------57-------------------------------------------------------------------16.33 Amy Klobuchar ----------------------------------------------------------------------68-------------------------------------------------------------------19.48 Deval Patrick ----------------------------------------------------------------------29-------------------------------------------------------------------8.31 Bernie Sanders -------------------------------------------------------193 -----------------------------------------------------------------55.30 Tom Steyer ----------------------------------------------------------------------51-------------------------------------------------------------------14.61 Elizabeth Warren-----------------------------------------------------157 -----------------------------------------------------------------44.99 Andrew Yang ----------------------------------------------------------------------89-------------------------------------------------------------------25.50 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------------6 --------------------------------------------------------------------1.72 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------------------22-------------------------------------------------------------------6.30 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------5 --------------------------------------------------------------------1.43 16. A couple of days ago, a Democratic debate hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register took place in Iowa. Did you watch the debate – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided 167 --------33.40 330 --------66.00 3 ----------0.60 {FOR 16.1} 17. Who did better than you expected? (If they mention anyone else not listed remind them that they did not make this debate. If they insist, enter as “other”) ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF RESPONDENT CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=167) n % Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Likely Democratic Primary Voters 14 ----------8.38 24 --------14.37 25 --------14.97 21 --------12.57 21 --------12.57 5 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------20 --------11.98 Other 8 ----------4.79 Undecided 51 --------30.54 Refused 4 ----------2.40 {FOR 16.1} 18. Who did worse than you expected? ACCEPT MULTIPLE CHOICES AND READ LIST IF RESPONDENT CAN’T THINK OF NAMES (N=167) n % Joe Biden 28 --------16.77 Pete Buttigieg 12 ----------7.19 Amy Klobuchar 8 ----------4.79 Bernie Sanders 15 ----------8.98 Tom Steyer 9 ----------5.39 Elizabeth Warren --------------------------------------------------35 --------20.96 Other 4 ----------2.40 Undecided 64 --------38.32 Refused 4 ----------2.40 19. Do you think a woman can win the Electoral College to defeat Donald Trump – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 20. 389 --------77.80 78 --------15.60 33 ----------6.60 0 ----------0.00 There are currently 12 Democrats running for president, but only 6 appeared in the debate. Next up is the New Hampshire debate which will be held at St. Anselm College in Manchester. Should the rules be loosened so more candidates are on the stage or is it good that there are fewer candidates? (N=500) n % Loosen rules so more candidates are on stage--------------165 -----------------------------------------------------------------33.00 Good that there are fewer candidates --------------------------286 -----------------------------------------------------------------57.20 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------------------47-------------------------------------------------------------------9.40 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------2 --------------------------------------------------------------------0.40 21. The United States and Iran have engaged in military attacks this month. How worried are you about the United States and Iran getting into a full-blown war? (READ CHOICES) (N=500) n % Very worried -----------------------------------------------------------185 -----------------------------------------------------------------37.00 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 6 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire Somewhat worried---------------------------------------------------160 -----------------------------------------------------------------32.00 Not very worried ----------------------------------------------------------------------65-------------------------------------------------------------------13.00 Not at all worried ----------------------------------------------------------------------83-------------------------------------------------------------------16.60 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------------------7 --------------------------------------------------------------------1.40 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------0 --------------------------------------------------------------------0.00 22. Although Michael Bloomberg is not certified for the primary, he has been advertising heavily across the country. Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg’s ads – yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes No Undecided Refused 351 --------70.20 142 --------28.40 6 ----------1.20 1 ----------0.20 {FOR 22.1, YES} 23. In your opinion, how convincing were the ads that you saw – would you say very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not at all convincing? (N=351) n % Very convincing 45 --------12.82 Somewhat convincing ------------------------------------------106 --------30.20 Not very convincing -----------------------------------------------81 --------23.08 Not at all convincing ---------------------------------------------109 --------31.05 Undecided 10 ----------2.85 Refused 0 ----------0.00 24. In your gut, do you think Donald Trump will be reelected – yes or no? (N=500) n Yes No Undecided Refused 25. % 176 --------35.20 249 --------49.80 71 --------14.20 4 ----------0.80 Of the following two statements which comes closer to your view: (ROTATE 25.1 & 25.2) Likely Democratic Primary Voters 7 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire (N=500) n % The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who can defeat Donald Trump--------------------------------------------------------------297 -----------------------------------------------------------------59.40 The most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a presidential candidate who reflects my priorities and values--------------------------------------------------------177 -----------------------------------------------------------------35.40 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------------------24-------------------------------------------------------------------4.80 Refused ----------------------------------------------------------------------2 --------------------------------------------------------------------0.40 26. How would you describe your own political viewpoint – very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative? {ROTATE .1-.5 ASCENDING TO DESCENDING} (N=500) n % Very liberal 74 --------14.80 Liberal 166 --------33.20 Moderate 198 --------39.60 Conservative 40 ----------8.00 Very Conservative -------------------------------------------------15 ----------3.00 Other 0 ----------0.00 Don’t know 7 ----------1.40 27. Do you think the Democratic Party is too far left, center, too far right, or just fine, compared to your own political viewpoint? (N=500) n % Too far left Center Too far right Just fine Don’t know 28. 183 --------36.60 62 --------12.40 35 ----------7.00 176 --------35.20 44 ----------8.80 In the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Primary, did you vote for Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or did you not vote in that Democratic Primary? (N=500) n % Bernie Sanders 206 --------41.20 Hillary Clinton 174 --------34.80 Did not vote in Democratic Primary -------------------------115 --------23.00 Don’t know 5 ----------1.00 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 8 of 9 January 15–19, 2020 SUPRC/Boston Globe New Hampshire These final questions will help us classify your answers with others taking the survey. 29. Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union? (N=500) Yes No Undecided Refused 30. % 78 --------15.60 417 --------83.40 5 ----------1.00 0 ----------0.00 Are any members of your household part of the LGBTQ community? (N=500) n Yes No Undecided Refused 31. n % 54 --------10.80 446 --------89.20 0 ----------0.00 0 ----------0.00 What is the highest level of education you have completed? (N=500) n % Some high school ---------------------------------------------------1 ----------0.20 High school graduate ---------------------------------------------53 --------10.60 Some college 110 --------22.00 Trade/technical/vocational training ----------------------------23 ----------4.60 College graduate -------------------------------------------------171 --------34.20 Masters or PhD 141 --------28.20 Undecided 1 ----------0.20 32. What is your annual household income? (N=500) n % Under $20,000 per year -----------------------------------------27 ----------5.40 Under $50,000 per year -----------------------------------------80 --------16.00 Under $75,000 per year -----------------------------------------77 --------15.40 Under $100,000 per year ----------------------------------------68 --------13.60 Under $140,000 per year ----------------------------------------81 --------16.20 $140,000 per year or more --------------------------------------84 --------16.80 Undecided 83 --------16.60 [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] Likely Democratic Primary Voters 9 of 9 January 15–19, 2020