For immediate release January 30, 2020 January 2020 Franklin & Marshall College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................. 2 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................... 3 VOTER SENTIMENT AND STATE ISSUES ............................................................................ 5 PRESIDENT TRUMP: JOB PERFORMANCE ......................................................................... 7 VOTER INTEREST ........................................................................................................... 9 THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY............................................................................................ 9 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 10 ATTACHMENT A-1....................................................................................................... 12 ATTACHMENT A-2....................................................................................................... 13 ATTACHMENT A-3....................................................................................................... 14 ATTACHMENT A-4....................................................................................................... 15 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT............................................................................ 16 2 Key Findings The January 2020 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that Pennsylvania voters are generally satisfied with the direction of the state and their personal finances. Half (51%) of the state’s registered voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” Most voters report they are “better off” (33%) or the “same” (54%) financially compared to last year and most expect to be “better off” (31%) or the “same” (53%) financially next year—these economic sentiments are slightly more optimistic than those captured during our October poll. There is no consensus among Pennsylvania’s registered voters about the benefits, costs, consequences, or support for natural gas extraction. More voters support (48%) than oppose (44%) shale drilling in the state, although more believe the environmental risks (49%) of natural gas drilling outweigh the economic benefits than believe the economic benefits outweigh the environmental risks (38%). Slightly more registered voters favor (48%) a ban on hydraulic fracturing than oppose it (39%). Contrasting with their feelings about the state, fewer (38%) registered voters believes that the United States is “headed in the right direction.” About two in five (38%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is higher than the October Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Two in five (41%) registered voters believe President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while three in five (57%) voters say it is time for a change. Nearly two-thirds (67%) of the state’s registered voters say they are “very interested” in the 2020 elections; interest in the general election is already as high as it was immediately prior to the 2018 mid-term election. The preferences of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania are less clear than in the October Poll, although former Vice President Joe Biden (22%) remains the top choice for President. 3 Senators Bernie Sanders (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (14%) remain in the top tier of candidates and Michael Bloomburg (7%) makes an appearance among a cluster of candidates that includes Pete Buttigieg (6%), Amy Klobuchar (5%) and Andrew Yang (5%). The standings of the Democratic primary race in Pennsylvania are similar to the standings of the race nationally. 4 Voter Sentiment and State Issues Half (51%) of the state’s registered voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” As Figure 1 shows, more registered voters in the state have been expressing positive views about the direction of the state during the last year than had done so in the prior decade. 1 This optimism likely comes from a belief that the state is not confronting any single, intractable problem and that most voters feel positively about their personal finances. Registered voters list government and politicians (18%), the economy and personal finances (16%), taxes (11%), and an assortment of other issues as being the most important problems facing the state. Most voters report they are “better off” (33%) or the “same” (54%) financially compared to last year and most expect to be “better off” (31%) or the “same” (53%) financially next year. Financial optimism has been relatively consistent and positive for several years and there are fewer respondents saying they are “worse off” compared to the October poll. It is notable that less than two in five (38%) registered voters believe that the United States is “headed in the right direction.” More Republicans (67%) than independents (39%) or Democrats (14%) feel this way about the country. More Democrats (57%) than independents (48%) or Republicans (46%) believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” 1 5 Figure 1: Fracking There is no consensus among Pennsylvania’s registered voters about the benefits, costs, consequences, or support for natural gas extraction. More voters support (48%) than oppose (44%) shale drilling in the state, although more believe the environmental risks (49%) of natural gas drilling outweigh the economic benefits than believe the economic benefits outweigh the environmental risks (38%). Registered voters are nearly equally divided about whether the quality of life in the communities where drilling takes place is improved (35%) or reduced (38%) by its presence. Slightly more registered voters favor (48%) a ban on hydraulic fracturing than oppose it (39%). 6 President Trump: Job Performance About two in five (38%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is slightly higher than his October Franklin & Marshall College Poll rating. Figure 2 compares President Trump’s job ratings to President Obama’s job ratings; President Trump’s current rating is similar to President Obama’s rating in Pennsylvania at the same point in his Presidency. A majority of Republicans (77%) rate the President’s performance positively, while fewer Democrats (8%) or independents (31%) do so. Conservatives (85%) are more likely than moderates (20%) or liberals (5%) to give the President positive job approval ratings. Figure 2: 7 Two in five (41%) registered voters believe President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election and most (83%) of these respondents say they will vote for him no matter who runs against him. On the other hand, three in five (57%) voters say it is time for a change and four in five (87%) of these voters say they will vote against the President no matter who runs against him. Taken together, half (50%) of registered voters are firmly supporting a change and a third (35%) are firmly supporting no change, leaving the balance as still deciding. Not surprisingly, attitudes about re-electing the President are strongly associated with party and political ideology, but the desire for change is also affected by ratings of personal finances even after accounting for political ideology. The effect of personal finances on support for the President is strongest for moderates (see Figure 3). Figure 3: 8 Voter Interest Nearly two-thirds (67%) of the state’s registered voters say they are “very interested” in the 2020 elections. This level of interest is about as high as it was in the weeks leading up to the 2018 mid-terms, when nearly three in four (71%) of the state’s registered voters reported they were “very interested” in the 2018 elections. Voter interest is related to both political party and political ideology. At the moment, more Democrats (76%) than Republicans (63%) or independents (47%) say they are “very interested.” More self-described liberals (78%) than conservatives (68%) or moderates (61%) say they are “very interested.” The Democratic Primary The preferences of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania are less clear than in the October poll, although former Vice President Joe Biden (22%) remains the top choice for President (see Figure 4). Senators Bernie Sanders (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (14%) remain in the top tier of candidates and Michael Bloomburg (7%) makes an appearance among a cluster of candidates that includes Pete Buttigieg (6%), Amy Klobuchar (5%) and Andrew Yang (5%). The current results in Pennsylvania are similar to the race nationally. 2 Registered Democrats continue to say that healthcare (20%) is the top issue they are considering in selecting a presidential candidate and that honesty (42%) is the quality they most want in a candidate. Competition among the top three candidates is driven by ideology. Three in four Sanders (72%) and Warren (73%) supporters identify as liberal, compared to only one in two (40%) Biden supporters. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html, accessed January 28, 2020. 2 9 Figure 4: Methodology The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted January 20 – 26, 2020. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 628 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 292 Democrats, 251 Republicans, and 85 independents. 3 The sample of registered voters was obtained from Marketing Systems Group. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. The question reported here is self-reported voter REGISTRATION and is consistent with past reporting practices. The survey also asked about self-reported voter IDENTIFICATION, which shows a slightly different partisan split: 44% identify as Republican (n=278), 6% as Independent (n=37), and 48% as Democrat (n=299). Partisan comparisons in this summary show self-reported registration. 3 10 Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the PA Department of State’s Voter Registration Data. Gender and education is estimated using data from the November 2018 CPS Voter Registration Supplement. 4 The sample error for this survey is +/- 6.2 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered (the sample error for registered Democrats is +/- 9.0 percent). In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. 4 Data downloaded from IPUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org, accessed 12/31/2019. 11 Attachment A-l Support for Ban on Naturai Gas That Uses Hydraulic Fracturing: Registered Voters, Pennsyiuania, January 2020 Some nearby states, i'nciuo'ing Moryiano' and New Fork, have imposed a ban on natural' gas o'ri'l'ii'ng that uses hyo'rauii'c fracturing, known as tracking. Woul'o' you favor or oppose a ban on fracici'ng in Pennsyivania? Favor Oppose Do not know Party? Republican 35% 55% 15% Democrat 54% 23% 13% Independent or somethino else 43% 43% 15% Ideology? Liberal 25% 12% 15% Moderate 51% 35% 13% Conseoiatiie 22% 53% 15% Gender? Male 41% 12% Female 54% 31% 15% Age? Under35 55% 22% 12% 35-54 44% 15% Duer55 44% 35% 13% Education? HS orless 45% 15% Some college 55% 35% 12% Colleoe deoree 53% 35% 12% Income? Under35 51% 23% 35-i'5 52% 35% 5% Dueri5 43% 44% 13% Race? White 45% 45% 13% Nonwhite 55% 13% 15% Marital Status Single. Never Married 51% 33% 15% Married 45% 42% 13% Not curre nth; married 45% 3i"% 15% Religious A?iliation? Protestant 35% 45% 15% Catholic 43% 41% 15% Other. unaffiliated 55% 31% 11% ?Born-again? or evangelical Christian? Yes 32% 45% 25% No 53% 35% 12% Region? Philadelphia 15% Northeast 45% 32% 25% Alleohew 51% 25% 13% Soutlwrest 25% 55% Northwest 45% 44% 15% Central 43% 15% Southeast 54% 34% 12% Employment? Fulltime 43% 45% 5% Other 55% 15% Retired 42% 21% p<5.51 $5.55 Source: Bower; conducted Januaw 25 ?Januaw 25, 2525 Center for INION RESEARCH OF 12 Femoglgtaesam Attachment A-2 Presidential Job Performance: Registered Voters, Pennsyivania, January 2020 How wouio? you rate the that Donaio? Trump is hano'iing his job as president? Wouio' you so},f he is doing an exceiientioh, a good job, oniy a fairioh, or apoor job as President? ExcellentiGood Fairi'Poor Do not know Party? Republican ii'% 23% 8% Democrat 8% 82% 8% Independent or Something elee 31% 88% 1% Ideology? Liberal 5% 84% 8% Moderate 28% 88% 8% Coneeniatiue 85% 15% 8% Gender Male 43% 53"% 8% Female 34% 85% 8% Age? Under 35 22% 8% 35-54 41% 58% 8% Cuer55 42% 58% 8% Education? H3 or less 58% 58% 8% Some college 42% 58% 8% College degree 28% 8% Income Under 35 28% i1% 8% 35-15 48% 88% 8% Clueri'5 48% 88% 8% Race White 41% 58% 8% Nonwhite 83% 8% Marital Status? Single. Neverl'u'larried 31% 88% 8% Married 42% 58% 8% Not currently married 38% 82% 8% Religious Affiliation? F'roteetant 58% 58% 8% Catholic 44% 58% 8% Other. unaffiliated 25% 8% ?Born-again? or evangelicalChristianRegion? Philadelphia 18% 88% 8% Northeaet 48% 52% 8% Allegheny 28% 88% 8% Sou?nweet 54% 45% 1% Nortl'rweet 88% 48% 8% Central 43% 52% 8% Southeaet 24% 8% Employment Fulltime 43% 58% 8% Other 28% i2% 8% Retired 41% 58% 8% p4:8.81 p?8.85 Source: Survey conducted January 28 January 25, 2828 Center for INION RESEARCH OF 13 Fawaasam Attachment A-3 Trump Re-eiection: Registered Voters, Pennsyivania, January 2020 Do you beiieve that Donaio' Tramp has done a enough job as President to deserve re-eiection, or do you beiieve it is time Jtor a change? you vote [forfagainst] President Trump no matter who runs against him, or not? Change No Change Change Open Open No Change Partv? Republican 11% 8% 11% 88% Democrat 88% 18% 1% 8% Indeoendent or sornethind else 88% 8% 18% 18% Ideologv? Lilaeral 88% 8% 8% 8% Moderate 88% 8% 18% 12% Conservative 8% 8% 8% 88% Gender? Male 48% 8% 8% 48% Female 88% 8% 8% 81 ?83? Under 88 88% 4% 14% 14% 88?84 48% 8% 8% 88% Over 88 48% 8% 8% 48% Education? H8 or less 48% 8% 8% 48% Some college 48% 8% 8% 88% College degree 81 8% 8% 84% Income Under 88 81 8% 8% 22% 88??8 48% 8% 11% 88% Over 28 48% 8% 8% 88% Race? White 48% 8% 8% 88% Nonvirhite 88% 8% 8% liihn'tal Status? Single. Never Married 88% 8% 18% 84% Married 48% 18% 8% 88% Not currentlv married 81% 8% 8% 88% Religious Affiliation? Protestant 88% 8% 8% 48% Catholic 88% 8% 8% 88% Other. unaf?liated 88% 18% 8% 28% ?Born-again? or evangelical Christian? ?(28% Fri?egion? Philadelphia 88% 18% 8% 18% Northeast 48% 4% 11% 48% ?lleohenv 88% 18% 8% 28% Southwest 88% 8% 8% 81 Northwest 28% 12% 8% 88% Central 44% 8% 11% 48% Southeast 88% 8% 4% 22% Emplovm ent? Fulltime 48% 8% 8% 88% Other 84% 4% 8% 88% Retired 48% 8% 8% 88% 8:881 848.88 Source: Survev conducted .?anuarv EU ?Januarv 26, 2828 888%? RESEARCH 14 Attachment A-4 Democratic Presidential Primary: Registered Voters, Pennsyivania, January 2020 iftne Democratic primary eieetion for President 'were being heio' too'ay wouio? you vote for {rotated candidates), or aren?t you sure how you woaio' vote? Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Bloomhurg Elmer DNK Ideology? Liloeral 29% 23% 24% 5% 3% 13% 12% lvloderate 25% 2% 5% 2% 12% 15% 22% Conservative 3% 19% 9% 9% 9% 59% 19% Gender lvlale 29% 15% 12% 5% 2% 12% 15% Female 23% 12% 13% 5% 2% 19% 29% Age? Under 35?23% Civer 55 29% 5% 4% 2% 19% 22% 24% Education? H5 orless 39% 12% 5% 3% 5% 22% 12% Some college 15% 2% 29% 5% 2% 25% 21% College degree 22% 12% 12% 2% 9% 11% 12% Income Under 22% 35?25 29% 14% 13% 5% 19% 21% 15% Over 25 24% 19% 19% 5% 5% 12% 15% Race? White 15% 14% 12% 5% 5% 19% 19% Nomvhite 43% 12% 5% 3% 3% 15% 13% Manml Status" Single. Never Married 15% 15% 25% 9% 2% 29% 13% Married 29% 15% 9% 9% 5% 19% 29% Notcurrehtlv married 32% 5% 11% 5% 12% 13% 23% Religious Af?liation? Protestant 24% 13% 5% 15% 12% 5% 29% Catholic 32% 5% 9% 3% 14% 19% 15% Other. unaffiliated 14% 12% 23% 2% 2% 23% 19% ?Elormagain? or evangelical Christian19% 15% Region? Philadelphia 29% 14% 29% 4% 3% 11% 19% Northeast 15Alleghenv 5% 15% 15% 5% 14% 25% 15% Southwest 14% 9% 15% 4% 14% 22% 31% orthw est Central 15% 24% 19% 19% 19% 5% 25% Southeast 32% 15% 5% 4% 3% 15% 21% Employment" Fulltime 15% 21% 15% 5% 5% 29% 13% Other 12% 14% 25% 2% 5% 23% 19% Retired 35% 3% 3% 9% 11% 13% 25% *p<9_91 iv'ote: Categories with iess than 25' resoono'ents are not reloor'teo' Source: Survev conducted Jahuarv January 25, Center for INION RESEARCH OF 15 Marginal Frequency Report Responses may not total 100% due to rounding. REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address? Yes No 100% 0% RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? Republican Democrat Independent Something else 40% 47% 12% 2% Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (rotated) Strongly favorable DONALD TRUMP Jan 2020 28% Oct 2019 23% Jul 2019 26% Mar 2019 24% Oct 2018 25% Sep 2018 26% Aug 2018 26% Jun 2018 26% Mar 2018 21% Sep 2017 21% Feb 2017 23% Oct 2016 23% Sep 2016 20% Aug 2016 23% Jul 2016 20% Mar 2016 13% Feb 2016 12% Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Undecided Do not know 13% 15% 13% 14% 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 22% 14% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 15% 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 4% 5% 7% 11% 9% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 9% 11% 48% 52% 52% 52% 55% 55% 52% 51% 49% 36% 51% 56% 54% 51% 57% 56% 51% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 0% 3% 3% 2% 6% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5% 7% 10% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 16 Strongly favorable JOE BIDEN Jan 2020 13% Oct 2019 17% Jul 2019 16% BERNIE SANDERS Jan 2020 12% Oct 2019 13% Jul 2019 15% ELIZABETH WARREN Jan 2020 11% Oct 2019 18% Jul 2019 21% PETE BUTTIGIEG Jan 2020 9% Oct 2019 13% Jul 2019 10% Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Undecided Do not know 30% 29% 30% 18% 15% 19% 29% 30% 25% 5% 6% 7% 6% 4% 4% 27% 28% 23% 15% 17% 15% 39% 34% 38% 5% 6% 5% 3% 2% 4% 26% 23% 20% 13% 12% 11% 33% 31% 30% 5% 6% 5% 12% 10% 14% 23% 20% 19% 9% 7% 8% 17% 18% 18% 8% 5% 5% 33% 37% 39% RightDir All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2017 May 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2016 Feb 2016 Jan 2016 Oct 2015 Aug 2015 Jun 2015 Mar 2015 Oct 2014 Sep 2014 Aug 2014 Headed in Right Direction 51% 57% 51% 49% 51% 51% 46% 45% 46% 37% 31% 35% 24% 21% 21% 26% 32% 36% 39% 28% 29% 27% Off on the Wrong Track 34% 31% 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 39% 40% 48% 50% 52% 66% 67% 67% 62% 54% 47% 47% 61% 60% 61% 17 Do not know 15% 12% 13% 15% 11% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 19% 13% 10% 12% 12% 12% 13% 17% 15% 11% 11% 13% Jun 2014 Jan 2014 Oct 2013 Aug 2013 May 2013 Aug 2012 Jun 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011 Oct 2010 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 30% 25% 25% 26% 28% 31% 30% 31% 38% 38% 34% 37% 27% 31% 30% 35% 32% 59% 62% 61% 62% 58% 56% 57% 56% 47% 49% 53% 53% 64% 59% 58% 55% 58% 18 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 13% 13% 10% 9% 10% 12% 10% 10% MIP_PA. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today? Jan Oct Jul Mar Oct Sep Aug Jun Mar Sep May Feb Mar Feb 2020 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 18% 12% 12% 9% 14% 14% 16% 13% 16% 30% 22% 24% 45% 47% Government, politicians Unemployment, personal 13% 9% 12% 6% 12% 9% finances Taxes 11% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% Crime, drugs, violence, 8% 10% 8% 9% 7% 6% guns Healthcare, insurance 8% 6% 7% 7% 8% 4% Education, school 6% 11% 13% 12% 9% 11% Environment 6% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% Roads, infrastructure, 5% 7% 3% 6% 5% 4% transportation Economy, finances 3% 2% 4% 9% 5% 6% Social issues 3% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% Energy issues, gas prices 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% Immigration 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% Values, morals 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% Senior issues, social 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% security Racism 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Personal illness, health 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% problems Retaining, attracting 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% businesses Welfare 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% Housing and real estate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Global events 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Bipartisanship 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% Justice system, Lawyers 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Align with political 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% views/platforms Population, urban sprawl 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Daycare 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Civil liberties 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Transportation, 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% availability Population loss, 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% movement out of state Other 5% 2% 4% 4% 5% 4% Do not know 8% 11% 9% 10% 10% 14% 19 14% 5% 12% 9% 8% 12% 13% 9% 10% 12% 15% 11% 12% 11% 7% 10% 6% 8% 10% 6% 5% 5% 1% 2% 3% 5% 13% 7% 3% 2% 2% 4% 8% 4% 2% 1% 9% 11% 17% 16% 13% 12% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 5% 7% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 9% 1% 3% 3% 1% 5% 6% 0% 1% 0% 7% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% 2% 3% 1% 1% 5% 1% 2% 0% 1% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 3% 5% 2% 12% 14% 13% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6% 3% 3% 4% 5% MS1. In general, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the extraction of natural gas from shale deposits in Pennsylvania? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Do not know Jan 2020 20% 28% 21% 23% 9% Mar 2018 17% 33% 16% 26% 9% MS5. Do you believe the potential economic benefits of natural gas drilling outweigh the possible environmental damage that drilling might cause or do you think the potential environmental risks of drilling outweigh the potential economic benefits? Potential environmental risks outweigh the potential economic benefits Economic benefits outweigh the possible environmental damage Do not know Jan 2020 Mar 2018 Jan 2014 Aug 2011 49% 55% 37% 35% 38% 30% 40% 39% 13% 15% 22% 26% MS6. Do you think that natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania has improved or reduced the quality of life in those communities where drilling is taking place? Greatly improved the quality of life Somewhat improved the quality of life Somewhat reduced the quality of life Greatly reduced the quality of life Has not affected the quality of life (only if volunteered) Do not know Jan 2020 12% 23% 23% 15% Mar 2018 7% 22% 23% 16% Jan 2014 16% 22% 13% 13% Aug 2011 15% 20% 17% 9% 3% 4% -- -- 24% 29% 37% 40% MS9. Some nearby states, including Maryland and New York, have imposed a ban on natural gas drilling that uses hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking. Would you favor or oppose a ban on fracking in Pennsylvania? Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Do not know 32% 16% 21% 18% 14% 20 RTK1. Local and state government agencies in Pennsylvania gather and produce large amounts of information as a result of their work. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view about a citizen’s right to see information that results from the work of state and local government? Citizens should have the right to obtain any government record with few restrictions. Citizens should have the right to obtain government records only in limited circumstances. Do not know 79% 19% 2% RTK2_FEW. What makes you feel citizens should have the right to obtain any government record with few restrictions? n=492 34% Citizens' right 15% Government is funded by tax payers 14% Government is for the people (by the people) 12% Transparency 5% Helps inform voters 4% Establishing restrictions indicates there is "something to hide" 4% Promotes government accountability 3% Limits/uncovers corruption 3% Politicians are elected by citizens 1% Freedom of Information Act 3% Other 3% Do not know *Totals may exceed 100% because multiple responses were accepted RTK2_LIMITED. What makes you feel citizens should have the right to obtain government records only in limited circumstances? Some information should be left confidential Democracy - Gov't for people/by the people; citizens' right; funded by tax payers Privacy Legitimate reason to access/request information should be provided Other Do not know *Totals may exceed 100% because multiple responses were accepted 21 n=115 36% 12% 9% 6% 25% 11% DemPrim1. If the Democratic primary election for President were being held today would you vote for (rotated candidates), or aren't you sure how you would vote? Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Mike Bloomburg Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Andrew Yang Tulsi Gabbard Tom Steyer Michael Bennet Deval Patrick John Delany None Other Do not know Jan 2020 n=292 22% 15% 14% 7% 6% 5% 5% 1% 1% <1% <1% 0% 6% 0% 19% Oct 2019 n=226 30% 12% 18% -8% 2% 1% 2% 0% 2% -0% 8% 3% 16% Jul 2019 n=295 28% 12% 21% -6% <1% 0% 1% 0% <1% -<1% <1% 12% 19% DemPrim2. Which candidate would be your second choice? Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Mike Bloomburg Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang Michael Bennet Deval Patrick John Delany Tom Steyer None Other Do not know Jan 2020 n=219 26% 18% 18% 11% 8% 8% 1% 1% <1% <1% 0% 0% <1% 0% 8% Oct 2019 n=199 27% 14% 9% 10% 5% -2% 0% 0% -0% 1% 12% 13% 8% 22 Jul 2019 n=236 25% 15% 15% 12% 1% -0% 3% <1% -0% <1% <1% 22% 7% DemIss What issue will be most important to you when considering which democratic candidate for President you support? Healthcare, insurance Candidate who can beat Trump Environment Personal characteristic of candidate Economy Terrorism, war, foreign policy Wealth/Income Inequality Education, schools Government, politicians Most Qualified, most experienced Values and morality Elder issues, social security Social Issues Best option/dislike other candidate more Crime, drugs, violence, guns Unemployment, personal finances Civil liberties Taxes Align with political views/platforms Donald Trump Candidate who will put country back on right track, in general Bipartisanship Immigration, illegal immigrants, refugees Transportation, infrastructure Justice system, lawyers Racism None Other Do not know 23 Jan 2020 n=292 20% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 6% Oct 2019 n=226 22% 8% 8% 9% 6% 6% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 14% Jul 2019 n=295 21% 11% 9% 8% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 7% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 6% DemChar And what personal characteristic or quality are you most looking for in a candidate for President? Honesty/Truthful Knowledgeable, intelligent Integrity Leader, leadership Specific issue/cause mentioned Can beat Trump County/people best interests in mind Bipartisan Experience Compassionate Morality, morals Relatable Ability to bring country together A good/decent person Progressive Stability Competent Ethical Professional Diplomacy Articulate, well spoken Fair Not Trump Moderate Character None, nothing Other Do not know Jan 2020 n=292 42% 9% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 3% 24 Oct 2019 n=226 35% 4% 10% 6% 4% 1% 2% 0% 5% 4% 4% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 9% 2% Jul 2019 n=295 22% 7% 14% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 8% 4% RatePres. How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2017 May 2017 Feb 2017 Excellent Job 21% 14% 21% 18% 22% 18% 18% 17% 13% 13% 13% 13% Good Job 17% 21% 16% 16% 14% 19% 20% 18% 17% 16% 24% 19% Only a Fair Job Poor Job Don’t Know 12% 49% 0% 11% 54% 0% 11% 52% 0% 13% 53% 0% 12% 52% 0% 8% 55% 0% 10% 52% 1% 13% 52% 0% 16% 54% 1% 18% 53% 1% 14% 49% 2% 13% 54% 1% REPRES. Do you believe that Donald Trump has done a good enough job as President to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change? Has done a good enough job to deserve re-election It is time for a change Do not know Jan 2020 41% 57% 2% Oct 2019 37% 59% 3% Jul 2019 38% 61% 2% Mar 2019 36% 61% 4% RE_FOR. Will you vote for President Trump no matter who runs against him, or not? Yes No Do not know Jan 2020 n=255 83% 13% 4% Oct 2019 n=178 74% 14% 12% Jul 2019 n=236 78% 14% 9% Mar 2019 n=192 63% 23% 14% RE_AGAINST. Will you vote against President Trump no matter who runs against him, or not? Yes No Do not know Jan 2020 n=351 87% 7% 6% Oct 2019 n=283 85% 9% 6% Jul 2019 n=376 85% 11% 4% 25 Mar 2019 n=326 80% 15% 5% Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election? Certain to vote Probably vote Chances are fifty-fifty Do not think that they will vote 94% 4% 1% 0% Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you are…very much interested, somewhat interested or not very interested in the 2020 elections? Very much interested Somewhat interested Not very interested 67% 29% 4% Vot16. Did you vote in the last presidential election in 2016, or not? Yes No 91% 9% Vot16pref. Did you vote for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, or some other candidate in 2016? Hilary Clinton Donald Trump Other candidate n=572 47% 46% 7% GenBalH If the 2020 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for for the House in your district? Democratic Party’s candidate Republican Party’s candidate Do not know 45% 38% 16% 26 RightDirUS. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Feb 2017 Oct 2016 Sep 2016 Aug 2016 Jul 2016 Headed in Right Direction 38% 35% 34% 30% 35% 36% 29% 35% 36% 32% 38% Off on the Wrong Track 58% 59% 62% 65% 61% 60% 66% 58% 57% 61% 57% Do not know 4% 6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you and your family are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Sep 2017 Feb 2017 Oct 2016 Sep 2016 Aug 2016 Better off 33% 30% 29% 32% 28% 31% 16% 21% 22% 23% 24% Worse off 12% 18% 16% 17% 11% 13% 13% 19% 24% 21% 24% About the same 54% 52% 55% 52% 61% 56% 69% 60% 53% 56% 52% 27 Do not know 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% FinFut. Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you and your family will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Feb 2017 Oct 2016 Sep 2016 Aug 2016 Better off 31% 31% 28% 29% 27% 31% 28% 25% 25% 25% Worse off 6% 11% 9% 11% 11% 10% 15% 7% 7% 8% About the same 53% 51% 58% 54% 56% 55% 49% 49% 52% 53% Do not know 10% 8% 5% 7% 6% 5% 8% 19% 16% 14% Imm1. When people from other countries legally move to the United States to live and work, is this generally good for the US, generally bad for the US, or neither good nor bad? Generally good Generally bad Neither good nor bad Do not know 71% 6% 21% 2% Imm2. Should the number of people who are allowed to legally move to the United States to live and work be: (rotated) Increased Decreased Kept the same Do not know 33% 14% 40% 13% 28 PrimNews What is your primary source for news? Jan 2020 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Cable television, such as 28% 27% 27% 31% Fox, CNN, or MSNBC Internet 26% 28% 29% 21% (other than social media)* Network television, such as 22% 20% 21% 18% ABC, CBS, or NBC Radio 7% 8% 10% 7% Daily newspaper, such as 7% 6% 9% 6% the Inquirer or Post-Gazette Social media (Twitter, Facebook, SnapChat, 6% 5% 7% 6% Instagram) Neighborhood newspaper 1% 2% 2% 1% Other 5% 3% 3% 3% Do not know 0% 0% 0% 0% *updated to exclude social media in February 2017 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 May Feb Oct Sep Aug 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 30% 28% 28% 31% 29% 30% 28% 27% 25% 28% 28% 33% 32% 28% 20% 20% 15% 18% 19% 20% 21% 6% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 12% 8% 7% 8% 11% 5% 5% 4% 3% -- -- -- 1% 4% 0% 2% 9% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 4% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% CabNet Which cable network do you rely on the most? (cable television respondents) Fox News Channel CNN MSNBC One America News Network CBS CNBC ABC PBS NBC HLN Fox Business Network None, nothing Other Do not know Jan 2020 n=174 51% 20% 18% Jul 2019 n=170 56% 21% 15% Mar 2019 n=142 37% 19% 27% Oct 2018 n=166 52% 24% 19% Sep 2018 n=159 53% 22% 16% Aug 2018 n=141 43% 22% 20% May 2017 n=180 50% 22% 18% Feb 2017 n=252 44% 29% 15% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% -0% 1% 1% 10% 2% 29 CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?) Central Southeast Southwest Northeast Philadelphia Northwest Allegheny 28% 22% 13% 12% 10% 8% 7% AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older 3% 13% 13% 19% 19% 33% EDUC. What was the highest level of schooling you have completed? High school graduate or less Some college College degree 27% 32% 41% MAR. What is your current marital status? Married Single, Never Married Divorced Widow or widower Separated 56% 24% 10% 10% 1% IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 May 2017 Feb 2017 Liberal 24% 24% 32% 31% 29% 28% 25% 27% 27% 26% 27% Moderate 38% 40% 27% 32% 36% 36% 33% 40% 40% 41% 42% 30 Conservative 34% 30% 36% 33% 35% 31% 37% 33% 33% 30% 31% Don’t know 5% 6% 5% 4% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2% 0% Oct 2016 Sep 2016 Aug 2016 Jul 2016 Mar 2016 Feb 2016 Jan 2016 Oct 2015 Aug 2015 Jun 2015 Oct 2014 Sept 2014 Aug 2014 Jun 2014 Jan 2014 Oct 2013 Aug 2013 May 2013 Feb 2013 Oct 2012 Sep 2012 Aug 2012 Jun 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2011 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011 Oct 2010 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Liberal 33% 31% 31% 33% 24% 27% 22% 22% 21% 23% 23% 22% 20% 26% 24% 24% 22% 24% 26% 22% 26% 21% 25% 17% 21% 20% 24% 16% 16% 15% 19% 19% Moderate 29% 28% 32% 30% 35% 33% 39% 38% 36% 35% 37% 36% 39% 36% 43% 39% 42% 39% 36% 39% 34% 40% 34% 39% 39% 39% 32% 33% 37% 34% 32% 32% Conservative 34% 38% 33% 33% 37% 37% 36% 37% 40% 39% 36% 38% 36% 34% 28% 31% 33% 31% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 40% 36% 33% 37% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40% Don’t know 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 6% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 8% 10% 9% 9% PARTY. Regardless of how you are registered in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Don’t know 26% 6% 12% 6% 15% 6% 27% 2% 31 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Strongly agree When people criticize the Somewhat agree party, it Somewhat disagree feels like a personal insult. Strongly disagree Do not know Strongly agree When I meet someone Somewhat agree who supports the party, I Somewhat disagree feel connected with this Strongly disagree person. Do not know Strongly agree When I speak about the Somewhat agree party, I refer to them as “my Somewhat disagree party.” Strongly disagree Do not know Strongly agree When people praise the Somewhat agree party, it Somewhat disagree makes me feel good. Strongly disagree Do not know GUN. Are you a gun owner? Yes No 36% 64% 32 Republican Party n=279 16% 24% 34% 24% 3% 28% 42% 13% 13% 5% 28% 36% 17% 16% 3% 37% 36% 15% 8% 5% Democratic Party n=301 13% 18% 38% 30% 2% 32% 44% 15% 6% 4% 26% 29% 26% 17% 2% 24% 48% 17% 8% 4% GUN2. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Mar 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2017 Feb 2017 Oct 2016 Sep 2016 Aug 2016 Jul 2016 Mar 2016 Feb 2016 Jan 2016 Oct 2015 Aug 2015 Jun 2015 Oct 2014 Sep 2014 Aug 2014 Jun 2014 Jan 2014 Oct 2013 Aug 2013 Strongly favor 42% 46% 47% 48% 46% 45% 47% 54% 52% 38% 42% 38% 44% 38% 43% 42% 40% 40% 43% 40% 38% 42% 39% 39% 43% 42% 46% 39% Somewhat favor 18% 14% 17% 14% 19% 20% 17% 15% 20% 23% 19% 27% 21% 16% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13% 14% 13% 12% 14% 14% 12% 12% 16% 12% Somewhat oppose 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 12% 9% 7% 11% 14% 12% 10% 16% 10% 10% 13% 13% 10% 10% 12% 8% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 13% Strongly oppose 27% 24% 23% 26% 24% 23% 22% 20% 19% 24% 23% 21% 23% 26% 25% 28% 29% 29% 31% 32% 33% 37% 32% 31% 31% 32% 24% 33% Don’t know 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 2% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? Yes No Do not know 20% 80% 1% VET. Are you a military veteran? Yes No 14% 86% 33 Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? Yes No 4% 96% RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? White Non-white 92% 8% How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Strongly agree Somewhat agree I am angry that racism exists. Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Do not know Strongly agree White people in the US have certain Somewhat agree advantages because of the color of Somewhat disagree their skin. Strongly disagree Do not know Strongly agree Somewhat agree Racial problems in the US are rare, Somewhat disagree isolated situations. Strongly disagree Do not know Strongly agree Somewhat agree I am fearful of people of other races. Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Do not know 75% 16% 6% 3% 1% 33% 28% 16% 22% 2% 8% 13% 21% 55% 3% 3% 3% 13% 80% 0% REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? Protestant Catholic Some other religion Not affiliated with any religion 31% 29% 15% 25% BAC. Would you consider yourself as a “Born-again” or evangelical Christian, or not? Yes No Don’t know 21% 77% 2% 34 ABORT. Do you think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances? Jan 2020 Oct 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2014 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Aug 2007 Jun 2007 Feb 2007 Legal under any circumstances 33% 29% 32% 34% 34% 30% 23% 20% 18% 21% 19% 19% 23% 20% 21% 18% 22% 21% 20% Legal under certain circumstances 52% 53% 50% 53% 51% 54% 56% 56% 61% 58% 56% 57% 50% 54% 54% 58% 56% 58% 53% Illegal in all circumstances 13% 16% 16% 12% 12% 15% 19% 22% 19% 19% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 20% 26% Don’t know 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% NUMC. How many children under 18 years of age currently live in your household? None One 2-3 4 or more 74% 11% 14% 1% WORK. Are you currently working fulltime, part-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? Full-time Retired Part-time Disabled Something else Going to school Unemployed 46% 30% 12% 4% 5% 2% 2% 35 INCOME. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? Under $25,000 $25-$35,000 $35-50,000 $50-75,000 $75-100,000 Over $100,000 Don’t know 10% 10% 14% 24% 12% 28% 3% DONE. Sex of respondent: Male Female 48% 52% 36