Mike Miller
Numerix, LLC

2019-20 WCPSS District-Wide K-12 Membership Forecast
Report
Final Draft: January 30, 2020
Executive Summary
WCPSS Average Daily Membership (ADM) grew by 1,436 students (0.89%) in 2019-20 for a Month-2
total of 161,907. This year marked the first year since 2013-14 that Kindergarten membership saw a net
gain (403).
Estimates of Wake County general population indicate recent resident growth has been driven by older
population cohorts with a lack of growth in younger school-age cohorts, although there is evidence that
this trend may be changing. The lack of growth in school-age populations over the last several years is
evident in lower grade cohorts that are now advancing through the system.
Non-WCPSS school systems, including charter schools, continue to grow and capture a larger share of
the K-12 population in Wake County. Forecast modeling will continue to account for these increasing
shares in non-WCPSS systems.
Analysis of neighboring public school districts shows an overall net gain in membership this year.
According to NC DPI Month-1 ADM data, Wake County and the seven adjacent districts gained 2,897 K12 students over 2018-19. This follows a year of net loss in membership for these eight districts.
The 2019-20 WCPSS membership forecast predicts 2020-21 Month-2 K-12 Average Daily Membership
of161,940, an increase of 33 (0.02%) over 2019-20. The forecasted ten-year annual growth average of
119 will result in a total K-12 membership of 163,100 in 2029-30.

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

1

 2019-20 WCPSS Month-2 Membership: 161,907
The 2019-20 Ten-Year K-12 Forecast is based on Month-2 Average Daily Membership (ADM) as reported
by WCPSS: 161,907.
The 2018-19 membership represents a net gain of 1,436 (0.89%) over the 2018-19 Month-2 Average
Daily Membership of 160,471.

Comparison with 2018-19 K-12 Forecast (final version, 20181229)
Membership by Grade
2019-20

2019-20

Net Gain
(actual)

(actual –
forecast)

11,416
11,790
12,040
12,218
12,674
12,622
12,696
12,733
12,303
13,263
12,899
12,217
11,600
160,471

11,571
11,668
11,981
12,058
12,311
12,865
12,591
12,856
12,863
13,758
12,528
12,221
11,759
161,030

11,819
11,700
12,031
12,185
12,409
12,821
12,586
12,880
12,824
14,068
12,535
12,396
11,653
161,907

403
-90
-9
-33
-265
199
-110
147
521
805
-364
179
53
1436

248
32
50
127
98
-44
-5
24
-39
310
7
175
-106
877

(actual)

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 +
Total

Error

2018-19

(forecast)

(actual)

Membership by Level
2019-20

2019-20

Net Gain
(actual)

(actual –
forecast)

72,760
37,732
49,979

72,454
38,310
50,266

72,965
38,290
50,652

205
558
673

511
-20
386

(actual)

K-5
6-8
9-12 +

Error

2018-19

(forecast)

(actual)

The 2018-19 K-12 Forecast (absolute) relative error is 877 or 0.54%.

2

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

 Membership Statistics
Grades K-12
WCPSS gained 1,436 K-12 students this year over the 2018-19 Month-2 ADM. This gain represents an
annual increase of 0.89%, largely consistent with the flat/decreasing trend in annual growth rates since
2009-10.

Although overall annual growth does not match the rates seen in the 2000s, areas within the district
continue to see strong growth in membership as a result of continued residential development. Past
evidence suggests development is tracking a west-to-east arc through the southern part of Wake
County. This K-12 forecast will be followed by a distributive forecast based on projected residential
development that will enable school planners to identify areas of growth potential and future facility
needs within the district. The distributive forecast is scheduled to be completed in January 2020.

Grades K-5
2019-20 marks the first year since 2012-13 that Kindergarten membership has increased (by 403
students over 2018-19). The gain in Grade-K helps to reverse two straight years of losses in elementary
grades K-5. The decreases in membership seen in elementary grades over the period from 2014-15 to
2018-19 have created large “negative-growth” cohorts that are advancing through the system year-byyear, although there is some evidence of increased in-migration in 2019-20 that may mitigate the effect
of these cohorts.

Grades 9-12
Overall grades 9-12 grew by 673 students over 2018-19. The cohort from the 2009-10 change in age for
Kindergarten eligibility is now in Grade-10, which has seen a 364 student drop over Grade-10
membership in 2018-19. This negative-growth cohort will age out by 2022-23 and moderate-to-strong
gains are expected in grades 9-12 over the next 3-4 years.

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

3

 Resident Live Births, Five-Year-Olds and Kindergarteners
The most recent Resident Live Birth (RLB) data for Wake County from 2018 (12,580) shows a decrease of
103 from 2017 and the second consecutive year of decreased RLB for the county.
RLB

2012
12,309

2013
12,439

2014
12,635

2015
12,867

2016
13,019

2017
12,683

2018
12,580

Source: NC State Center for Health Statistics – www.schs.state.nc.us/data/vital.cfm

County population estimates by age generated by the NC Office of State Budget and Management
(OSBM) show a decreasing trend in five-year-old population from 2012 through 2017, with the 2018
estimate at 12,855. OSBM projections indicate a reversal of the decreasing trend beginning in 2018,
gaining an average of 143 five-year-olds per year through 2027. The graph below shows RLB, 5-Year-Olds
and Kindergartners for 2005 through 2018. RLB data has been advanced by five years in this graph.
5-YO

2011
13,629

2012
13,723

2013
13,439

2014
13,137

2015
13,048

2016
13,032

2017
12,844

2018
12,855

Source: NC Office of State Budget and Management – www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections

4

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

 Cohort Analysis
The historic Month-2 ADM data table shown below highlights (in red) “negative growth” cohorts present
in WCPSS membership. Red values indicate a net loss for that grade over the previous year. (The blue
cells indicate a lower cohort due to the change in age for kindergarten eligibility for the 2009-10 school
year. This cohort is now in Grade-10.) Typically, these negative growth cohorts are stable as they
advance through the system unless a significant change in district in-migration causes a reversal. Note
the five consecutive years of declining Grade-K membership from 2014 through 2018.

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total

2013
12,213
12,592
12,417
12,016
11,449
12,196
11,814
12,133
11,766
12,854
11,619
10,539
9,692
153,300

2014
12,065
12,388
12,646
12,286
11,929
11,428
12,086
11,981
12,252
13,278
11,865
10,919
10,061
155,184

2015
11,860
12,372
12,498
12,591
12,429
12,052
11,423
12,212
12,102
13,663
12,385
11,056
10,537
157,180

2016
11,855
12,173
12,625
12,509
12,728
12,682
12,065
11,611
12,246
13,366
12,994
11,764
10,931
159,549

2017
11,664
11,982
12,323
12,642
12,529
12,813
12,625
12,209
11,782
13,751
12,717
12,246
11,146
160,429

2018
11,416
11,790
12,040
12,218
12,674
12,622
12,696
12,733
12,303
13,263
12,899
12,217
11,600
160,471

2019
11,819
11,700
12,031
12,185
12,409
12,821
12,586
12,880
12,824
14,068
12,535
12,396
11,653
161,907

It should be noted that although a grade may see a net loss from the previous year, there may still be
growth within that cohort as it advances. As seen in the table, the cohort of 11,416 Grade-K students in
2018-19 grew by 284 to 11,700 Grade-1 students in 2019-20. This yearly growth is captured and
projected by the cohort forecast model.

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

5

 Cohort analysis plays a central role in forecasting populations over time. Examining past cohort
phenomena can often help us better understand how to model future population dynamics. The table
below is a “heat map” of past Cohort Survival Ratios (CSRs) in the WCPSS system. Red indicates
historically high CSR values for that grade and green indicates historically low CSRs for that grade.
From
To
RLB>K
K>1
1>2
2>3
3>4
4>5
5>6
6>7
7>8
8>9
9>10
10>11
11>12

2007
2008
1.0336
1.0360
0.9934
1.0029
1.0194
1.0145
1.0169
1.0266
1.0188
1.2212
0.8271
0.9180
0.9608

2008
2009
0.9118
1.0173
0.9922
0.9987
0.9968
1.0085
1.0051
1.0093
1.0041
1.1952
0.8390
0.9289
0.9791

2009
2010
0.9465
1.0280
1.0032
1.0014
1.0055
1.0174
1.0057
1.0168
1.0101
1.1925
0.8477
0.9358
0.9805

2010
2011
0.9384
1.0302
1.0190
1.0043
1.0007
1.0136
1.0056
1.0170
1.0228
1.1709
0.8662
0.9379
0.9680

2011
2012
0.9104
1.0183
1.0023
1.0070
1.0022
1.0050
0.9992
1.0133
1.0069
1.1500
0.8866
0.9469
0.9721

2012
2013
0.9027
1.0400
1.0113
1.0025
1.0131
1.0128
1.0064
1.0227
1.0174
1.1365
0.9041
0.9433
0.9627

2013
2014
0.9274
1.0143
1.0043
0.9894
0.9928
0.9982
0.9910
1.0141
1.0098
1.1285
0.9231
0.9398
0.9546

2014
2015
0.9335
1.0254
1.0089
0.9957
1.0116
1.0103
0.9996
1.0104
1.0101
1.1152
0.9327
0.9318
0.9650

2015
2016
0.9516
1.0264
1.0204
1.0009
1.0109
1.0204
1.0011
1.0165
1.0028
1.1044
0.9510
0.9499
0.9887

2016
2017
0.9476
1.0107
1.0123
1.0013
1.0016
1.0067
0.9955
1.0119
1.0147
1.1229
0.9514
0.9424
0.9475

2017
2018
0.9178
1.0108
1.0048
0.9915
1.0025
1.0074
0.9909
1.0086
1.0077
1.1257
0.9380
0.9607
0.9472

2018
2019
0.9354
1.0249
1.0204
1.0120
1.0156
1.0116
0.9971
1.0145
1.0071
1.1435
0.9451
0.9610
0.9538

Note the following:
•
•
•
•

6

The red/orange areas in the first column represents the final stages of the in-migration to
WCPSS that occurred during the high-growth period before 2008.
The darker green patch in the 2013 to 2014 columns signifies the impact of several charter
schools opening in the fall of 2014.
The impact of returning students from non-WCPSS systems and increased retention of higher
grades produces the higher CSR values in grades 10-12 over the past several years.
The Resident Live Birth to Kindergarten (row 1) and other elementary-level CSRs values abruptly
shift to green beginning in the 2008 > 2009 column and have not yet recovered to pre-Recession
levels although it appears to have stabilized.

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

 Charter School Impact
One new charter school in Wake County opened in the fall of 2019: Carolina Charter Academy: CFA
serving grades K-6 and eventually growing to grades K-8. NC DPI reports the combined 2018-19 Month1 ADM to be 426.
Charter schools currently being tracked for impact on WCPSS are listed below with Average Daily
Membership (ADM) as reported by NC DPI. (Hope Charter Leadership Academy is no longer listed in the
NC DPI report.) The total 2019-20 Month-1 ADM for these 26 charter schools is 19,564 including
students not residing in Wake County.

Charter Schools (Open as of 2019-20)
Name
Opened Grades1 2016-17
The Exploris School
30-Jun-97 K-8
423
Magellan Charter
30-Jun-97 3-8
406
Sterling Montessori Academy
28-Jun-97 K-8
602
Franklin Academy
30-Jun-98 K-12
1,639
East Wake Academy
30-Jun-98 K-12
1,152
Raleigh Charter High School
30-Jun-99 9-12
562
Torchlight Academy
30-Jun-99 K-6
531
PreEminent Charter School
30-Jun-00 K-8
609
Quest Academy
30-Jun-99 K-8
143
Southern Wake Academy
28-Jun-00 6-12
477
Hope Charter Leadership Academy
30-Jun-01 K-5
128
Casa Esperanza Montessori
30-Jun-03 K-8
497
Endeavor Charter
01-Jul-08 K-8
514
Triangle Math and Science Academy
01-Jul-12 K-12
808
Longleaf School of the Arts
01-Jul-13 9-12
329
Wake Forest Charter Academy
01-Jul-14 K-6
677
Cardinal Charter (North Raleigh)
01-Jul-14 K-8
1,062
Envision Science Academy
01-Jul-14 K-8
601
PAVE Southeast Raleigh Charter School
01-Jul-15 K-8
224
Central Wake Charter High School
01-Jul-16 9-12
72
Peak Charter Academy
Fall 2017 K-8
n/a
Pine Springs Preparatory Academy
Fall 2017 K-8
n/a
Rolesville Charter Academy
Fall 2018 K-8
n/a
Carolina Charter Academy: CFA
Fall 2019 K-8
n/a
Raleigh Oak Charter
Fall 2018 K-8
n/a
Charter Schools Located Outside of Wake County
00A
NC Cyber Academy3 (formerly Connections)
Fall 2015 K-12
1,758
00B
NC Virtual Academy3
Fall 2015 K-12
1,714
1
Approved Grades
2
2018-19 and 2019-20 data is Month-1 ADM
3
Virtual Charter School
Code
92B
92D
92E
92F
92G
92K
92L
92M
92N
92P
92Q
92R
92S
92T
92U
92V
92W
92Y
93J
93L
93M
93N
93P
93Q
93R

Total ADM
2017-18 2018-192
421
452
407
406
606
614
1,631
1,649
1,172
1,187
564
563
520
579
592
625
141
143
607
734
122
128
494
512
511
512
867
905
328
347
759
753
975
883
666
703
314
383
188
179
595
680
506
609
n/a
581
n/a
n/a
n/a
209
2,061
2,018

2,170
2,362

2019-202
456
406
605
1,649
1,202
561
560
682
143
802
n/a
568
513
900
351
762
911
722
408
180
741
764
656
426
276
1,726
2,594

In 2019-20, total Month-2 ADM for the 24 charters schools located in Wake County is 14,084 up from
the 2018-19 Month-2 ADM of 13,809. The net gain for all charter schools located in the county was 275
in 2019-20.
2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

7

 Two virtual charter schools serving the entire state grew have a combined Month-1 ADM of 4,320 in
2019-20.
As of December 2019, there are six charter schools located in Wake County slated to open in the fall of
2020 (Note: Draft 3 of the WCPSS forecast included two additional charters that are no longer opening
in 2020.):
• CE Academy (opening K-5)
• Doral Academy North Carolina (opening K-2)
• Kaleidoscope Charter High School (opening 9-10)
• North Raleigh Charter Academy (opening K-6)
• Wake Preparatory Academy (opening K-10)
• Wendell Falls Charter Academy (opening K-6)
Estimated impact to WCPSS in 2020-21 is 3,108 for these six schools. The estimate of total charter
school impact on WCPSS membership for 2020-21 is 4,252. (Note: Based on information available at the
time, the final draft of the K-12 forecast for school year 2020-21 includes estimated impact totaling
4,961 students from eight charter schools. Impact has been reduced to the six charter schools listed
above for school years 2021-22 through 2029-30.)
Current data indicates one new charter school is potentially opening in Wake County in the fall of 2021.
This school is not yet approved. The forecast team will continue to track the impact of charter schools
on WCPSS membership as they are approved.

Other School Systems
Month-1 Membership in Neighboring LEAs
NC DPI Month-1* ADM data for WCPSS and seven neighboring school systems is shown in the table
below for 2017-18 through 2019-20. While the eight systems lost a total of 1306 students between
2017-18 and 2018-19, the systems gained a total of 2,897 students in 2019-20 with the largest (relative)
gains going to Johnston (2.69%) and Chatham (1.68%) districts.
LEA
Chatham County Schools
Durham Public Schools
Franklin County Schools
Granville County Schools
Harnett County Schools
Johnston County Public Schools
Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
Wake County Public School System

Month- 1
2017-18
8,746
32,706
8,134
7,454
20,390
35,711
14,911
158,710

Month-1
2018-19
8,802
32,029
8,110
7,321
20,216
35,561
14,684
158,733

Month-1
2019-20
8,950
32,476
8,008
7,166
20,039
36,517
14,855
160,342

* NC DPI Month-2 ADM was not available at the time of this report.

8

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

 Private and Home Schools
Private and home schools continue to have an impact on WCPSS membership. The market share of
private schools remains at 9.0% in 2019-20. The market share of home schools has increased to a 201920 share of 6.3%.
Distribution of Wake County Student Population in Public and Non-Public Systems: Market Share
December 2019
Academic
Year

Private
Schools

Home
Schools

Charter
Schools

WCPSS

K-12
Totals

Private
Schools

Home
Schools

Charter
Schools

WCPSS

2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012

12,006
12,615
13,267
12,951
13,375
13,525
14,021
14,696
15,123
15,689
16,084
16,135

3,131
4,490
5,042
5,374
5,801
6,361
6,516
7,059
7,571
7,890
8,033
7,600

2,334
2,964
3,471
3,962
4,531
4,997
4,985
5,319
4,990
5,299
5,398
5,798

97,691
101,432
104,461
108,969
114,068
120,504
128,072
134,002
137,706
139,599
143,289
146,687

115,162
121,501
126,241
131,256
137,775
145,387
153,594
161,076
165,390
168,477
172,804
176,220

2012-2013

16,048

8,507

6,229

149,508

180,292

6,733
8,555
9,661
10,857
12,319
13,809

153,300
155,184
157,180
159,549
160,429
160,471

185,841
191,078
195,437
199,935
203,622
205,869

10.4%
10.4%
10.5%
9.9%
9.7%
9.3%
9.1%
9.1%
9.1%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.9%
8.7%
8.9%
8.8%
8.8%
9.0%
9.0%

2.7%
3.7%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.6%
4.3%
4.7%
5.1%
5.4%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.3%

2.0%
2.4%
2.7%
3.0%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
3.0%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.6%
4.5%
4.9%
5.4%
6.0%
6.7%

84.8%
83.5%
82.7%
83.0%
82.8%
82.9%
83.4%
83.2%
83.3%
82.9%
82.9%
83.2%
82.9%
82.5%
81.2%
80.4%
79.8%
78.8%
77.9%

14,084

161,907

2013-2014*
2014-2015*
2015-2016*
2016-2017*
2017-2018*
2018-2019*
2019-2020*

16,249
9,559
16,932
10,407
17,240
11,356
17,557
11,972
18,258
12,616
18,567
13,022
Not yet released

Total

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

*WCPSS PowerSchool 2nd Month ADM
Private and Home schools data compiled from the North Carolina Division of Non-Public Education website. Data released Spring of current school year.
Home and Private Schools data collection may not reflect 20th day enrollment. Charter schools data from WCPSS October billing of charter school students
beginning in 2014-15.

Analysis of the growth of non-WCPSS schools through 2018-19 (most recent data available as of
December 2019) shows average growth in enrollment in private schools at 420 students per year and
753 students per year in home schools since 2012-13. Evidence suggests that many students may return
to WCPSS in later grades, but currently there is a lack of data to quantify with precision the movement
between WCPSS and non-WCPSS systems.

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

9

 Market Share Descriptive Statistics
December 2019
Private Schools

Home Schools

Enrollment

1997-1998
1998-1999

8,968
9,826

1,663
1,990

568
1,553

89,525
92,023

1999-2000

10,255

2,457

2,158

95,010

2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012

12,006
12,615
13,267
12,951
13,375
13,525
14,021
14,696
15,123
15,689
16,084
16,135

1,359
552
332
427
560
155
543
512
319
143
(433)

43.4%
12.3%
6.6%
7.9%
9.7%
2.4%
8.3%
7.3%
4.2%
1.8%
-5.4%

2,334
2,964
3,471
3,962
4,531
4,997
4,985
5,319
4,990
5,299
5,398
5,798

630
507
491
569
466
(12)
334
(329)
309
99
400

27.0%
17.1%
14.1%
14.4%
10.3%
-0.2%
6.7%
-6.2%
6.2%
1.9%
7.4%

2012-2013
2013-2014*
2014-2015*
2015-2016*
2016-2017*
2017-2018*
2018-2019*

16,048
16,249
16,932
17,240
17,557
18,258

907
1,052
848
949
616
644
406

11.9%
12.4%
8.9%
9.1%
5.4%
5.4%
3.2%

6,229
6,733
8,555
9,661
10,857
12,319
13,809

431
504
1,822
1,106
1,196
1,462
1,490

14,084

275

18,567

Enrollment

609
652
(316)
424
150
496
675
427
566
395
51

5.1%
5.2%
-2.4%
3.3%
1.1%
3.7%
4.8%
2.9%
3.7%
2.5%
0.3%

3,131
4,490
5,042
5,374
5,801
6,361
6,516
7,059
7,571
7,890
8,033
7,600

(87)
201
683
308
317
701
309

-0.5%
1.3%
4.2%
1.8%
1.8%
4.0%
1.7%

8,507
9,559
10,407
11,356
11,972
12,616
13,022

2019-2020*

Growth

%
Growth Enrollment

WCPSS

Academic
Year

Growth

%
Growth

Charter Schools

Growth

%
Growth

Growth

%
Growth

97,691
101,432
104,461
108,969
114,068
120,504
128,072
134,002
137,706
139,599
143,289
146,687

3,741
3,029
4,508
5,099
6,436
7,568
5,930
3,704
1,893
3,690
3,398

3.8%
3.0%
4.3%
4.7%
5.6%
6.3%
4.6%
2.8%
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%

7.4%
8.1%
27.1%
12.9%
12.4%
13.5%
12.1%

149,508
153,300
155,184
157,180
159,549
160,429
160,471

2,821
3,792
1,884
1,996
2,369
880
42

1.9%
2.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%

2.0%

161,907

1,436

0.9%

Enrollment

*WCPSS PowerSchool 2nd Month ADM
Private and Home schools data compiled from the North Carolina Division of Non-Public Education website. Data released Spring of current school year.
Home and Private Schools data collection may not reflect 20th day enrollment. Charter schools data from WCPSS October billing of charter school students.

10

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

 2019-20 WCPSS District-Wide K-12 Forecast – Final Draft
The accompanying Final Draft of the 2019-20 WCPSS district-wide K-12 forecast is based on the
following assumptions.

Assumptions:
•
•

•
•

12,500 Resident Live Births (RLB) in Wake County for 2019
Based in recent data trends, RLB are expected to show little or no growth over the next few
years. The RLB projection is a blend of projected 3-year and 10-year linear regressions; the
average annual RLB projected growth rate for the 2019 to 2024 period is 0.05%.
CSR target values: Optimal Projection (5,4,3,2,1 seed) weighting
Eight new charter charters impacting school year 2020-21, reduced to six charter schools
thereafter.

Some Results:
•
•

The forecast for 2019-20 Month-2 ADM predicts a gain of 33 K-12 students for a total of
161,940. The corresponding annual growth rate is 0.02%.
The predicted gain over the next ten years is 1,193 K-12 students with an average annual growth
rate of 0.07%.

The complete ten-year forecast by grade accompanies this report.
2020-21 WCPSS Month-2 ADM – Final Draft
Grade
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report

2019-20
(actual)
11,819
11,700
12,031
12,185
12,409
12,821
12,586
12,880
12,824
14,068
12,535
12,396
11,653
161,907

2020-21
(forecast)
11,809
11,927
11,774
12,007
12,211
12,458
12,690
12,696
12,961
14,409
13,262
11,962
11,774
161,940

11

 Supplemental Materials
Previous K-12 Forecasts
Since 2005, the WCPSS K-12 forecast has been determined by a collaborative effort involving WCPSS,
Wake County government, the Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) at ITRE/NCSU.
Since 2016 the team also includes the consultant Numerix LLC. The forecasting team has generated
annual forecast updates for WCPSS, with major updates occurring in 2008 and 2012 when new land use
data was collected by OREd. Seeing signs of recovery in residential development after the recession, the
land use data collection effort was ramped up to an annual cycle beginning with the 2015-16 update.
Annual land use data collection continues to this day.
During each annual update, the forecast team reviews current membership data as well as demographic
and economic data. Forecast parameters are adjusted to account for emerging trends in membership,
general population dynamics and residential development activity. Reductions in long-range forecast
numbers (as evident in the table and graph below) reflect the continuing analysis of this data each year
and the resulting adjustment of the membership forecast. Comparing the 2006-07 forecast to the 201920 forecast, predicted total membership for 2025-06 has dropped by over 91,000 students. (We
acknowledge that the 2006-07 forecast was aggressive due to unprecedented pre-recession growth in
WCPSS.) Comparing the 2012-13 forecast to the 2019-20 forecast, predicted membership for 2025-26
has dropped by over 43,000 students.
Forecast Date
6/16/06
1/3/13
12/4/15
12/8/17
12/29/18
12/6/19
Actual

12

2019-20
220,650
176,573
167,080
164,089
161,030
n/a
161,907

Select Target Years
2022-23
237,698
192,546
178,084
171,826
163,759
163,113
n/a

2025-26
254,665
206,666
189,398
179,966
163,907
163,090
n/a

2019-20 WCPSS K-12 Forecast Report