Funding Memo: Driving Anti-Trump Republicans Into the Democratic Primary Campaign Goal: Increase turnout among anti-Trump Republicans and conservative independents in the Democratic Primary in key states, bolstering candidates more likely to defeat Donald Trump. Campaign Purpose: With six weeks until the first votes are cast in the Democratic Presidential nominating contest, we have a good picture of which candidates have a realistic path to the nomination. Anti-Trump conservative voters have a clear interest in the Democrats nominating a standard bearer who is both ideologically tolerable - even if there are major differences on policy - and more likely to defeat the President and allow the Republican Party to begin to move beyond Donald Trump. For these voters when it comes to both ideology and electability, Bernie Sanders is beyond the pale. Given the Republican Party’s cancellation of primaries and caucuses throughout the country - these voters should have their voices heard through the Democratic process, giving them the opportunity to influence a close race in favor of a candidate they could support in a general election. It would advance the mission of our organizations and the interests of these voters to help facilitate their participation in the Democratic process. Strategic Elements: 1. Driving Anti-Trump Republicans to the Polls in States with Same Day Registration In a few key states all voters have the opportunity to vote in either party caucus or primary on election day without needing to be concerned about registration deadlines or party affiliations. Through a digital and mail campaign we would identify target voters and push them to have their voice heard and keep the general election from being a choice between a socialist and a nationalist. 2. Encouraging GOP Primary Candidates to Push Their “Independent” Voters into the Democratic Primary Given the RNC’s undemocratic stacking of the deck against the declared Republican candidates, should they consider to throw their voters into the Democratic primary, we can help promote the news of that decision to independent voters in states that allow for primary participation among those who are not registered for a major party. Map: 1. Nevada - This is the first priority state for this effort Nevada caucus rules allow for any voter to show up to the caucus site on election day and reregister to participate with the Democrats. Only 84,000 Democrats participated in the Nevada caucus in 2016, meaning bringing just 4,200 disaffected Republicans to the polls could be a boost of about 5% for the more centrist candidates. Unlike the other early states, Nevada has not been deluged with resources so we will have a greater impact per dollar spent. And in the worst-case scenario where Sanders is to win Iowa and New Hampshire - a plausible result based on recent polls - Nevada will play an important role in blunting his momentum before he reaches more hostile turf in South Carolina. 2. New Hampshire Spending money in New Hampshire will depend largely on cooperation from the Republican campaigns, but there is a potential to move a significant number of antiSanders voters into the Democratic electorate. For example, in 2016, the Kasich campaign estimates that 17,000 of their voters were undeclared. Should those voters move into the Democratic Primary that would represent about 7% of the total electorate, a non-significant number in a close race. 3. Virginia and Wisconsin These states come later in the campaign but should the field narrow to two their nonpartisan primary process and the electorally significant suburban communities with large pockets of disaffected Republicans make them prime candidates for a turnout effort. Tactics: This will be a straightforward turnout campaign that will be based on existing data, survey research, and voter modeling to reach the voters most likely to be anti-Trump Republicans who are open to voting in the Democratic Primary. Once the voters are identified we will use digital advertising, mail, and possibly direct voter contact to encourage them to participate in the Democratic Primary in support of the most viable center-left candidate. The voters we are talking to will most likely have never voted in a primary before so the messaging will have to assuage their concerns about that and give them the encouragement they need to pull a Democratic Party ballot. Budget and Timing: This project needs to start immediately, we have the assets in place to do that. Budget Line-Items: ● Legal - Review of materials for legal and primary purpose sign off, filing of required reports ● Survey - Large Sample Survey across four states for audience creation ● Predictive Modeling/Data - Individual voter scoring and segmentation ● Mail - Four flights per state ● Digital - Thirty impressions per matched target ● Voter File Costs ● Creative ● Management and Strategy We can run a complete effort in Nevada as an initial foray for approximately $400500k. If the opportunity presents itself we could add in New Hampshire undeclared voters for another $100-200k. The budget would scale up from there depending on the state of the race. Team: ● Matt Kalmans - CEO of Applecart, the premiere centrist data and analytics firm. Led strategic team behind Kasich 2016 data operation. ● Sarah Longwell: CEO of Longwell Partners; Cofounder, Defending Democracy Together and Republicans for the Rule of Law; ● Tim Miller: former Communications Director for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign; founder of the largest GOP research organization, America Rising.