To​: Kevin Sheekey and Howard Wolfson 
From: Mitch Stewart and Dan Kanninen 
Date​: February 17, 2020 
Subject​: State of the Race
 
 
Key takeaways 
● As the race stands today, Sanders is poised to leave Super Tuesday with an over-400 
delegate lead versus his next closest competitor (MRB) - a likely insurmountable 
advantage 
● MRB is the clear #2 in the race based on vote share 
● Biden and Warren have crumbled: their support has markedly declined since Iowa and 
they show no signs of revival 
● Buttigieg has stagnated: he saw a small boost after Iowa but has been unable to sustain 
a level of support that makes him delegate-viable on Super Tuesday  
● If Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar remain in the race despite having no path to 
appreciably collecting delegates on Super Tuesday (and beyond), they will propel 
Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead by siphoning votes away from 
MRB 
 
State of the Race: Super Tuesday 
Since the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the state of the race has dramatically shifted 
and Sanders has opened up a large lead over the rest of the field across Super Tuesday states. 
Because many Super Tuesday states also have large early voting populations (including 
California and Texas), Sanders has ​already started​ banking his lead. In fact, if Super Tuesday 
contests happened today, Sanders would open up a >400 delegate lead (see table below) over 
the next-best candidate (MRB). 
 
Post Iowa 

Post New 
Hampshire 

Bloomberg 

15% 

18% 

3% 

316 

Sanders 

27% 

32% 

5% 

720 

Biden 

23% 

17% 

-6% 

211 

Warren 

14% 

12% 

-2% 

40 

Steyer 

1% 

2% 

1% 

0 

Klobuchar 

5% 

10% 

5% 

40 

Buttigieg 

10% 

11% 

1% 

11 

 

 

Super Tuesday* 
Change in  Estimated 
Support  Delegates 

​*Undecideds are allocated systematically across candidates to help simulate delegate allocation 

 If Sanders moves past Super Tuesday with the 404 delegate lead we currently project he will 
have, it will be all but impossible to stop him from getting to a plurality (or even majority) of 
pledged delegates. Even a ~150 delegate lead would require the next-closest competitor to 
outperform him by an average of roughly 55-45 in all remaining contests to catch up. 
 
Other candidate trajectories 
The snapshots above are based on slightly-outdated modeling by the data team. For a more 
updated view of the horse race, see below for candidate-by-candidate performance. This graph 
shows that Biden has collapsed even more than our model output above shows - he’s hovering 
around 12-13%, making him delegate-unviable in many contests. By the time he gets to Super 
Tuesday, he’s likely to be even weaker. However, his continued presence in the race - along 
with that of Buttigieg and Klobuchar - will siphon votes away from the best performing 
Sanders-alternative (MRB) and increase the likelihood of a Sanders blowout. 
 

 
 
2016 as a guidepost 
The race after Super Tuesday will be close, so any serious delegate advantage accumulated on 
March 3rd is likely to be maintained. History validates this perspective: in 2016, Clinton netted 
163​ more delegates than Sanders on Super Tuesday and he never caught up. 
 
Conclusion 
The bottom line is that if Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar remain in the race despite having no 
path to appreciably collecting delegates on Super Tuesday (and beyond), they will propel 

 Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead by siphoning votes away from MRB with 
no upside for themselves. 
 
Taking a step back: this is now a 3-candidate race between MRB, Sanders, and Trump. Both 
Sanders and Trump know that MRB poses the greatest threat to their chances of winning this 
election. As we ascend and begin (hopefully) consolidating support, there will be blowback 
from both Sanders and Trump - both the candidates themselves, but also their supporters, who 
share some attributes. We expect them to escalate their attacks on MRB, our campaign staff, 
and our supporters.