IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
FOR THE DISTRICT OF NEW MEXICO
BRANDON ELLIS, JEREMY ARTIS,
and VASSHAWN ROBINSON,
Plaintiffs,
Civil Action
NO.: 2:17-CV-01011-WJ-GBW

vs.

Hobbs Police Department, et al.
Defendants.
DECLARATION OF WILLIAM S. COOPER
WILLIAM S. COOPER, acting in accordance with 28 U.S.C. § 1746,
Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 26(a)(2)(B), and Federal Rules of Evidence 702
and 703, does hereby declare and say:
I. INTRODUCTION
1. My name is William S. Cooper. I have a B.A. in Economics from
Davidson College. As a private consultant, I currently serve as a demographic
expert for the Plaintiffs. I am compensated at a rate of $125 per hour.
(a) Experience
2.

I have testified at trial as an expert witness on redistricting and

demographics in federal courts in about 40 voting rights cases since the late 1980s.

 3.

Since 2011, based in part on my testimony, six federal courts have

found a Section 2 Voting Rights Act violation: Montes v. City of Yakima,
Washington (E.D. Wash. Aug. 22, 2014); Pope v. Albany County, New York
(N.D.N.Y. Jan. 28, 2014; N.D.N.Y. Mar. 24, 2015); NAACP v. Ferguson-Florissant
School District, Missouri (E. D. Mo. August 22, 2016); Terrebonne Parish Branch;
NAACP et al. v. Jindal et al. (M.D. La. July 27, 2017); and Thomas v. Bryant
(S.D. Ms. Feb 16, 2019).
4.

In addition to the cases noted above, since 2011, four other federal

courts have ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, based in part on my testimony regarding
demographics: (1) constitutional claims regarding redistricting and one-person,
one-vote – Calvin et al v Jefferson County, Florida (N.D. Florida, 2016), Alabama
Legislative Black Caucus v Alabama 231 F. Supp. 3d 1026 (M.D. Ala. 2017), and
Navajo Nation v. San Juan County, Utah (C.D. Utah 2017) and (2) school
desegregation – Stout v. Jefferson County Board of Education (M.D. Ala. 2017).
5.

Throughout this decade, I have provided demographic and GIS

consulting services to the NAACP Legal Defense Fund (environment, housing, and
polling place closures); the Prison Policy Initiative (prison population analyses);
and the Food Research and Action Center and its affiliates (Summer Food Program
and Child and Adult Care Food Program).

2

 (b) Purpose of Declaration
6. The attorneys for the Plaintiffs in this case asked me to examine the
demographics of Hobbs, New Mexico in conjunction with pedestrian stops by the
Hobbs Police Department over the two-year time period of October 2016 to
October 2018.
(c) Summary Conclusion
7. The south end of Hobbs, where minorities comprise more than 80% of
the population, experienced pedestrian stops over the 2016 to 2018 period at a
disproportionate rate compared to the remainder of Hobbs. The disparate impact is
based on three findings:
8. First, three of the police patrol districts in Hobbs – Districts 3, 4, and 6 –
accounted for 82% of all pedestrian stops. Taken together, according to the 2010
Census, the minority population in these three patrol districts is 80.1%. Patrol
Districts 3, 4, and 6 represent just 49.5% of the citywide population and 47.6% of
the adult (i.e. ages 18 and over) population.
9.

Second, I determined that about 78% of the citywide population living

within a radius of 100 feet of pedestrian stops was non-White – higher than the
citywide 61.3% minority population, as reported in the 2010 Census – and higher

3

 than more recent Census Bureau estimates indicating a 66% citywide minority
population, as reported in the 5-year American Community Survey.
10. Third, applying a more granular method, I examined stops at the
individual census block level. There are 31 “hot spots” demarcated by census
blocks that had 10 or more stops over the two-year period. These 31 census blocks
(with an 80% minority population) account for nearly one-third of all stops, but
encompass just 6.6% of the city's population.
(d) Methodology and Sources
11. I relied on geographic information system (“GIS”) software for my
analysis. The software I use is called Maptitude, developed by the Caliper
Corporation.1
12. Maptitude is deployed by many local and state governing bodies across
the country for redistricting and other types of demographic analysis. The
Maptitude software processes electronic Census Bureau geographic files
information in order to produce a map for display on a computer screen. The
software also merges demographic data and street address information to match the
relevant decennial Census geography.
13.

To facilitate my analysis, the attorneys provided me with a list (in

Excel format) of all pedestrian stops by street intersection. The list was compiled by

1 See:

https://www.caliper.com/maptovu.htm
4

 the attorneys using address information in Hobbs Police Department CAD Call
Logs from October 2016 through October 2018. I used Maptitude to geocode the
street intersections and overlaid those data points onto a census block map of
Hobbs, depicting 2010 Census population by race and ethnicity.
14.

Of the 1,547 pedestrian stop intersections in the call log spreadsheet, I

was able to geocode 1,531 with Maptitude (99.0%).
15.

The attorneys for the Plaintiffs also advised me that boundaries for

police patrol districts in Hobbs are the same as City Commission districts. I
imported the boundaries for the Commission districts, using a GIS file delineating
the six Commission districts prepared by the City of Hobbs. 2
II. DEMOGRAPHIC OF PROFILE OF HOBBS
(a) Citywide Demographics
16.

According to the 2010 Census, Hobbs has a total population of 34,122.

However, this figure includes the Lea County State Prison in the northwest part of
the city. The incarcerated population in this prison census block is 1,134, according
to the 2010 Census.
17. As shown in Figure 1 (on the next page), after excluding the prisoners
from the total population, Hobbs has a 2010 population of 32,988. Latinos are a
majority of the population (53.5%), followed by non-Hispanic Whites (38.7%),

2 See:

http://hobbsnmgis.com/downloads.html
5

 African Americans (5.6%), and other minorities (2.2%). 3
Figure 1
Hobbs -- Population by Race and Ethnicity
Excluding Lea County Correctional Facility

2010
2010
Number Percent
Total
Population
Latino
NH Black
NH White
Other
Minorities

32,988
15,333
1,852
12,754
729

100%
53.5%
5.6%
38.7%
2.2%

2017
Census
Bureau
Estimate
36,786
NA
NA
NA
NA

2013-2017
ACS
Estimates
100%
56.8%
6.1%
34.0%
2.9%

18. Census Bureau estimates for 2017 (the midpoint of the 2016 to 2018
pedestrian stop analysis) indicate that Hobbs has experienced a population increase
since 2010. Including the prison population, the Census Bureau estimates a
citywide 2017 population of 37,920.4 As shown in Figure 1, excluding the prison
population, the 2017 estimated resident population of Hobbs is 36,786, representing
about an 11.5% increase since the 2010 Census.

3 In

this declaration, “NH White” means non-Hispanic White. “NH Black” or “Black” means
single-race non-Hispanic Black or African-American. “Latino” means Latino of any race.
4 Source:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2018_PE
PANNRES&prodType=table
The Census Bureau does not publish annual population estimates by race for county subdivisions such as
cities and towns.

6

 19. As shown in the rightmost column of Figure 1, according to estimates
from the 5-year 2013-2017 American Community Survey (“ACS”), the percentage
of Whites in Hobbs has fallen from 38.7% in 2010 to 34.0%. The Latino population
climbed to 56.8% by mid-decade from 53.5% in 2010, while the Black population
inched up to 6.1% from 5.6%.5
20. The 5-year ACS does not provide block-level information, so for my
analysis I have relied on the 2010 Census. 6
(b) Spatial Distribution of Population in Hobbs
(i) Census Blocks (2010 Census)
21. The map in Figure 2 (on the next page) shows a 2010 census block level
map of Hobbs, with an overlay of the patrol districts (thick black lines). Shading on
the Figure 2 map identifies census blocks in Hobbs where the minority population
is between 60% and 80% (pink) and 80% to 100% (red), according to the 2010
Census.

5 The 2013-2017

ACS is the most recent release available from the U.S. Census Bureau. The
2015-2019 ACS, with a 2017 survey midpoint will not be released until January 2021.
The annual total population estimates published by the Census Bureau (see ¶18 supra) are not
drawn from the 5-year ACS, which is a sample survey that is based on survey responses from
one out of eight households over a 5-year period.
6A

census block is the smallest geographic tabulation area from the decennial Census.
7

 Figure 2
Percent Minority by 2010 Census Block with Patrol District Overlay

(ii) Patrol Districts (2010 Census)
22. The table in Figure 3 (on the next page) shows the percent minority by
patrol district. The minority population in Hobbs is concentrated in Districts 3, 4,
and 6, as depicted in the Figure 2 map.

8

 Figure 3
2010 Population By Patrol District (excluding prison in District 5)
District
1
2
3
4
5
6

Population % Latino
5915
33.3%
5927
48.4%
5444
69.5%
5433
74.2%
4794
25.4%
5475
69.1%

%NH
Black
2.9%
4.8%
13.4%
4.2%
3.3%
5.1%

% NH
White
61.4%
44.5%
15.9%
19.8%
67.3%
24.0%

% Minority
38.6%
55.5%
84.1%
80.2%
32.7%
76.0%

III ANALYSIS OF PEDISTRIAN STOPS – OCT. 2016 TO OCT. 2018
(a) Pedestrian Stops by Patrol District
23. The middle column in the table in Figure 4 shows the number of stops
by patrol district over the two-year period. The rightmost column shows
percentages of stops based on the adult population in each patrol district.
Figure 4
2016-2018 Stops by Patrol District (excluding prison in District 5)

2010 18+
Pop
4252
4091
3495
3646
3605
3717

% Minority
18+Pop.
32.4%
48.2%
80.9%
75.6%
51.8%
70.7%

2016 -2018
Stops
79
110
438
515
81
308

% of
Citywide
Stops
5.2%
7.2%
28.6%
33.6%
5.3%
20.1%

% of 18+ Pop
in Patrol
District
1.9%
2.7%
12.5%
14.1%
2.2%
8.3%

Total

22806

58.9%

1531

100.0%

6.7%

Subtotal
D3,D4, & D6

10858

75.6%

1261

82.4%

11.6%

District
1
2
3
4
5
6

9

 24. As a percentage of citywide stops, District 3 (28.6%), District 4
(33.6%), and District 6 (20.1%), which encompass predominantly minority
neighborhoods, account for 82.4% of all stops. Indeed, as shown in the rightmost
column of Figure 4, District 3 (12.5%) and District 4 (14.1%) stand out with stop
percentages in the double-digits of the overall adult population in each district.
(b) Pedestrian Stops by 100 ft. radii Analysis
25. The map in Figure 5 (on the next page) replicates the demographic
map in Figure 2 supra, with an overlay of blue dots that identify intersections or
addresses where one or more of the 1,531 pedestrian stops were recorded.

10

 Figure 5
2016-2018 Pedestrian Stops in Hobbs

26. Overlapping circles representing a 100-feet radius for each stop are not
visible on the Figure 5 map. But the disproportionate spatial distribution of stops in
predominantly minority areas encompassed by Districts 3, 4, and 6 is evident.
27. Applying a 100-feet radius to each of the 1,531 stop points, the
population that is within each circle surrounding the stops is about 78% minority.

11

 (c) Pedestrian Stops by Census Block
28. The map in Figure 6 identifies 31 census blocks in Hobbs with high
numbers of stops (10 or more) over the two-year period.
29. These 31 blocks (blue text) account for 31% of all stops over the twoyear period. Of the 31 census blocks, 30 are in south/southeast Hobbs. All 31
census blocks are greater than 50% minority or in unpopulated blocks near minority
neighborhoods.
Figure 6
2016-2018 -- High Stop Census Blocks (10 or more) in Hobbs

12

 30. As the Figure 6 map reveals, the only high stop census block outside of
south/southeast Hobbs (Districts 3, 4, and 6) is in racially diverse District 2 (55.5%
minority). This census block (Block 5026000), with 11 stops over the two-year
period, contains a population that is 75% minority.
31. Given the nature of this lawsuit, it is also noteworthy that the census
block with the highest number of pedestrian stops (47 stops in Block 4001001 in the
east end of District 3) has a Black population of 180 persons, which represents
nearly 10% of the citywide Black population of 1,852.7
32. Exhibit A provides additional block-level detail and shows total stops
(in small black text) for all blocks over the two-year period.
33. The table in Figure 7 corresponds to the Exhibit A map and shows
stops by block-level percent minority population.
Figure 7
2016 to 2018 -- Stops by Minority Population in Census Blocks

% Minority
0% to 5%
5% to 20%
20% to 40%
40% to 60%
60% to 80%
80% to 100%
No Population

7 Block

Number of
Census
Blocks
25
36
115
133
131
277
218

Population in
Blocks
229
1632
6692
7125
6529
10779
0

Stops
32
15
116
193
228
680
267

% of
stops
1.3%
1.0%
7.6%
12.6%
14.9%
44.4%
17.4%

4001001 has a total population of 743, representing 2.2% of the citywide population.
13

 34. Citywide, just 2.3% of all stops occurred in census blocks with minority
populations under 20%. By contrast, 71.9% of all stops occurred in census blocks
with minority populations between 40% and 100%, with much of the remainder
occurring in unpopulated blocks.
35. As shown in Figure 8, the green to orange areas on the heat map
indicate the areas with the highest frequency of stops over the two-year period. The
bull’s-eye is in minority neighborhoods in District 4.
Figure 8
Heat Map of Stops (2016-2018)

14

 ###

I reserve the right to continue to supplement my reports in light of additional
facts, testimony and/or materials that may come to light.
Executed on: July 30, 2019

WILLIAM S. COOPER

15